Possible scenario of new confrontation

Recently, in the north of Israel, the final inter-troop staff exercises of the Israel Defense Forces (Israel Defense Forces) were completed, during which methods and variants of simultaneous combat operations on the Lebanese and Syrian fronts were developed. During the week, the heads of the Ministry of Defense, officers of the General Staff, Land Forces, Air Force, Navy, Headquarters of the Northern District, commanders of regular and reserve units took part in the exercise.

The main attention was paid to the organization of interaction between different types of troops based on the experience of operations in Lebanon and the Gaza Strip. The interaction of intelligence agencies was especially carefully honed, tank, infantry and artillery units, aviation и fleet, rear and communications, medicine and communications troops. The exercises were led by the head of the military school, Major General Gershon Akoen. Gabi Ashkenazi, the chief of the General Staff, observed the exercise at the headquarters of the Northern District. Defense Minister Ehud Barak also took part in the exercises.

SUPPORT FOR CENTRAL NETWORK OPERATIONS

It can be assumed that the exercises are a preparation for another war against Lebanon. In the event of another aggravation of relations with a neighbor, Israel, taking into account previous mistakes, will try to inflict maximum damage on its most dangerous enemy. The current moment for the Israeli army can be seen as very favorable, since it is not necessary to expect a strike from the Syrian army, weakened by two years of confrontation with international terrorist groups. Moreover, Syria’s destruction of chemical weapons It is also an additional guarantee against possible trouble for Israel by the SAR.

How can military actions on the long-suffering Lebanese land look like? Having received a hard slap in the 2006 year from Hezbollah in the form of significant casualties to soldiers and the latest armored vehicles, the Israeli military leadership has drawn adequate conclusions for itself. In particular, the leadership of the IDF is unlikely to start up large units of tanks and armored vehicles in frontal attacks on populated areas. Experience shows that such actions are expedient at the last stage of the war. At the beginning of a military operation, widespread use of airborne units and special forces with the bypass of most small and large settlements is more likely.

Apparently, the theory of central network operations can be used as the basis for the strategy of the Israeli army, the initial positions of which were published 10 years ago in the national press by Colonel Musa Khamzatov. The Israel Defense Forces will initially seek to preemptively seize all key heights, passes, roads, entrances to underground shelters and numerous tunnels with extensive use of assault forces supported by aviation and artillery.

The rocket attacks on Israeli territory, of course, will be, but after the IDF occupies all the key heights and entrances to the tunnels, they will quickly stop. The solution of this problem by the Israeli army is possible with the use of guided munitions, cluster and thermobaric bombs. For their effective use, the IDF is able to create a single intelligence and information space over the entire territory of Lebanon. In the new conditions, the Hezbollah military units will be able to use only pre-installed missiles from disguised positions, bunkers and tunnels. All retractable installation positions will be quickly destroyed.

As a result of the massive strikes of the Israeli army, the troops and the Hezbollah groups will be cut. In addition, they will not have large targets for tank type attacks, as was the case in the second Lebanese war. Beat off the IDF captured heights under the fire of enemy aircraft, completely dominant in the air, and a large number of UAVs, leading continuous reconnaissance, small units are unlikely to. Any maneuver of Hezbollah by any large forces and means will be immediately detected and stopped by all the power of Israeli aviation.

TAMUZ IN THE MOUNTAIN MOUNTAINS

The possibility of such a scenario is high, but not everything is so simple. After all, the mountains and forests of Lebanon are not the sand of Libya and Iraq, which the IDF General Headquarters is well aware of. As Afghanistan has shown, even the all-powerful and ultra-modern US army can stall on the difficult terrain.
In Lebanon, the terrain can allow Hezbollah fighters to cling to Israeli positions in order to avoid losses from their artillery and aircraft. In addition, it is not always advisable to use artillery and aviation in groups of two or three, which Hezbollah is fighting. And here the leadership of the IDF has already tested a trump card - the new Tamuz missile system from the Spike NLOS family, which stands for Non Line OS Sisht - “out of sight”. The complex is a multiplatform electronic-optical rocket system for the destruction of tanks, bunkers, individual targets: ships, boats, helicopters, certain militant groups at a distance of up to 25 km. Moreover, the accuracy of hitting even at the maximum range is very high - a rocket can hit the hatch of a tank. The complex can be installed on armored vehicles, UAVs, helicopters, ships and other platforms.

The rocket is made according to the classical aerodynamic scheme with opening wings. "Tamuz" can be induced using a UAV, satellite, aircraft, has its own target-fixing system and remote control, carried out using a two-way optical image transmission system. Compactness, speed of deployment and firepower of the complex can significantly reduce the dependence of small units of special forces and paratroopers on artillery and air support.

Electron-optical control of a rocket allows you to: select a target after launching or change the type of target; get real-time intelligence and categorize the target; to seize the target after the start, to fire from closed positions; eliminate fire on your own; makes the rocket insensitive to the formulation of interference - both radio electronic and infrared. The launch is carried out in three modes: “fired and forgotten”, “fired, estimated and corrected”, “fired and fired”.

Possible configurations of the complex:

Mini Spyke - 1500 m, m - 12 kg;
Spyke SR (short range) - 200 – 800 m, m - 9 kg;
Spyke MR “Gil” (medium range) - 200 – 2500 m, m - 26 kg;
Spyke LR - 400 m, for infantry and infantry fighting vehicles, m - 26 kg;
Spyke ER, NT - Dandy (long-range version for mobile combat systems) - 8000 m, m - 33 kg.

The cost of one rocket 145 – 250 thousand dollars. Mass - 71 kg per container. Speed ​​- 120 – 180 m / s. Penetration - 1000 mm. Application at t from –32 to 49 C. It is equipped with various types of warheads (PBF and PBF / r). The complex has already been purchased by Azerbaijan, Germany, Spain, Italy, Colombia, the Netherlands, Peru, Poland, Romania, Singapore, Slovenia, Finland, France, Chile, Ecuador. In the variant NLOS "Tamuz" Israel sold only South Korea.
Previously, the complex received a run-in in the second Lebanon war. Tamuz was a significant source of losses for Hezbollah, demonstrating excellent fighting qualities and the highest accuracy thanks to the latest sensors and focusing system. In the second Lebanon war, the IDF used up to 500 missiles.

In the event of a possible conflict with Lebanon, Israel is unlikely to limit itself to the border of the Litany River, as it was in 2006. The absolute superiority of Israeli aviation, its massive use in the almost complete absence of opposition from the Hezbollah formations, will make it possible to land landings on the entire depth of Lebanese territory, including in the Hezbollah enclaves. And in this case, “Tamuz” is able to provide the IDF superiority around the perimeter of the defense of its strongholds. Israeli aviation will not allow attacks by the large units of Hezbollah captured by the IDF of the bridgeheads, while Tamuz and Spike will protect against small groups of attackers. With the help of Tamuz with TBG and all types of guided weapons, artillery and aviation, the Israelis will try to destroy all the more well-known entrances to the tunnels used by Hezbollah. Of course, this will cost Israel very dearly, but the game is worth the candle.

Probably, according to the military leadership of Israel, the future conflict with Lebanon should be a new war of a civilized state against savages, running into fighting technologies for high-tech armies of developed countries with armies and armed formations of the third world.

TACTICS OF COMBAT ACTIONS OF THE “PARTY OF ALLAH”

And what can the Hezbollah fighters - the “Party of Allah” oppose to similar tactics? If the Hezbollah command cannot deliver quick fire strikes to the enemy, with immediate withdrawal, then the Spike and Tamuz fire weapons will not leave them a chance. If they do not reconsider their tactics, they will undoubtedly be crushed, but there is always opposition to every weapon and tactic.

Hezbollah will surely use the tactics of an unlimited mine war with the use of a large number of predetermined controlled land mines. The IDF units in any case will move along the roads and therefore the losses from the mine war will not be avoided. For Hezbollah fighters, the importance of reconnaissance, camouflage and imitation of false positions, weapons and equipment models soars up to heaven. But the main thing that will probably be opposed to the high-tech army of Israel is the ability of small groups of personnel to fight with complete autonomy and the ability to conduct long-term hostilities in a completely destroyed infrastructure or in its absence, as the Taliban in Afghanistan does.

For both sides of the conflict, the importance of the sniper war also increases. Rifles to destroy material targets (unarmored and lightly armored vehicles, airplanes, helicopters, communications equipment, and others), caliber 50 BMG and higher, can play a significant role in the likely conflict. The presence of a large number of sniper weapons in the mountainous and wooded areas of the Hezbollah fighters can severely constrain the actions of the Israeli units.

"Hyena" in Israel scare disobedient children.

With the well-known tactics of Hezbollah to act by a large number of small detachments, there may be a shortage of effective and high-precision, but costly Tamuz and Spikes. Probably, the Israeli army can also face Hezbollah’s mortar calculations, especially in difficult terrain, where targets can be quickly introduced with the help of benchmarks created.

In addition, on the side of Hezbollah there is a tactical advantage due to the fact that its fighters are not afraid to act in small groups. Israelis are unlikely to be able to adhere to this tactic, except that only special forces and only at night. In this regard, there are risks of imposing night fights on the IDF in unfamiliar for Israelis and the targeted area. The French have faced similar tactics in Afghanistan, which even the new set of the “soldier of the future” - FELIN - did not help. The whole world went around the video, where the Mujahideen posed for their latest equipment.

If Israel in the future conflict cannot completely destroy all the military units and the Hezbollah structure, then this organization will later become the most significant military force in the Middle East. Already today, thanks to its social institutions and material support of the population, it enjoys the great support of the Shiite community of Lebanon. There are a great many people who want to join the ranks of this organization and fight with Israel. Due to their harsh selection to their ranks, the Hezbollah fighters are characterized by strong morale and willingness to die, and fighting with fanatics is always difficult, especially if they are well armed.

HESBOLLAH STRUCTURE

What is Hezbollah now? The Party of Allah operates not only in Lebanon, but also in many key regions of the world. In Lebanon, its main base areas are located in the Bekaa Valley, Al-Janub Province (South Lebanon), in western Beirut and its southern suburbs. There are cells in South America, Indonesia, Malaysia, Canada, USA, Germany, England, Belgium. Hezbollah’s intelligence service manages television and radio broadcasts and the organization’s newspapers. Today it is the only public organization structure of Hezbollah. The remaining parts of the organization, at least internationally, are cells that are independent of each other. This is done to improve security so that one group does not have information about the operational task of another.

The military wing of Hezbollah is known as the Islamic Resistance Movement - similar to the name of Hamas. Before the second Lebanon war, there were 600 – 800 active fighters and 3 – 5 thousand reserves in the military wing of Hezbollah. Spetsnaz numbered about 300 – 400 people, these are mainly communications, intelligence, ATGM, MANPADS, snipers. Hezbollah’s powerful training center called Sheikh Abdullah is located in the Bekaa Valley and is also used by the Lebanese army. In total, in the military wing, according to media reports, there are 16 battalions for 252 man. Nine of them are motorized. Fighters of the regular Hezbollah military formations undergo military training under the leadership of units of the Iranian IRGC stationed on a permanent basis in Lebanon. In these units, Iranian instructors train recruits who later serve in the Hezbollah infantry and motorized battalions. In parallel, selected fighters with special physical and intellectual qualities. Of these, infantry commanders are trained, they go on reconnaissance, the SSO and the Hezbollah special security apparatus.

The special security apparatus (ASB), on the orders of the Mejlis al-Shura (Hezbollah High Council), performs percussion operations outside Lebanon at a high professional level. Personnel for special operations forces are recruited from intelligence units, these people are considered to be seriously prepared and ready to die in order to accomplish the task. Most of them come from such organizations as Force 17, PFLP and other Arab and Islamist organizations that have ceased their activities. All special operations Hezbollah deals with the CRS. The members of foreign cells actively study the countries and languages ​​of the countries in which they are to perform their tasks. When penetrating into Israel, members of the ASB use documents, uniforms, weapons and equipment of Israelis, speak Hebrew, study the Talmud, are well versed in Israeli cuisine.

Members of special penetration squads and suicide squads differ in uniform: “Penetration squads” are painted by Pakistani, Israeli and other armies, the jihad squad wear green and black clothes, they carry various types of explosives that are difficult to detect. The following “Jihad squads” are known: the Islamabuli Brigade (training and killing political figures), the Al-Quds Brigade (two companies of suicide bombers of 56 people); a company named Fadhi Shkaqi; A company named Ihye Ayash. Thanks to these units, Hezbollah has the ability to collect and analyze intelligence data, can plan and conduct special operations in various regions of the world, even in the United States.

The quality of Hezbollah’s military leadership can be illustrated by the biography of a man who led its military units and defeated the most up-to-date IDF. Imad Mugnii, an outstanding personality, a master of military affairs and special operations in any corner of the globe, headed the preparation, control and conduct of hostilities by Hezbollah in the second Lebanon war. Thanks to him, a system of bunkers for the storage and launch of missiles was built. During the war, on his orders, the missiles were transported not by road, which was monitored by the UAV and Israeli aircraft, but on ordinary donkeys. The Israeli military bitterly sneered on this occasion that they would have to destroy all donkeys in Lebanon in order to stop the supply of missiles. And on all donkeys "Tamuzov" is not enough.

"HYENA"

On the account of Imad Mugniy, who was called “Hyena” by Israeli and American special services, hundreds of special operations were carried out, many of which are now called “terrorist acts”. Here are some of them:

- 1983 year - the explosion of the US Embassy in Beirut (killed 63 person);
- 1983 year - the explosion of the embassies of France and the United States in Kuwait;
- 1983 year - an explosion of a truck loaded with explosives in Lebanon (241 US Marine and French paratroopers 58 died);
- 1984 year - the explosion of the US embassy in Beirut, the abduction of a CIA resident in Lebanon, the hijacking of a Kuwaiti passenger plane, the explosion of the Israeli cultural center in Beirut (85 people died);
- 1985 year - hijacking the plane, where the US Navy seals died, the murder of a Soviet diplomat and the seizure of two KGB officers as hostages;
- 2000 year - the abduction of Israeli soldiers, the abduction of the colonel of the Israel Defense Forces, having access to top secret documents, the organization of an attack on the American destroyer Cole;
- A series of terrorist attacks against the Taliban in Afghanistan, as well as support for the Northern Alliance against the Taliban;
- the invention of "live bombs" with shahid belts;
- successful opposition to the intelligence services of Pakistan, Libya, Turkey, Egypt and Saudi Arabia;
- the destruction of the Iraqi residency in Yemen;
- training of Chechen militants at Hezbollah bases in the first Chechen war;
- Numerous recruits of Israeli Arabs, Bedouins and Druzes;
- recruitment of UN soldiers in southern Lebanon, who blocked the supply of drugs to Israel, and even the abduction of Israeli soldiers.

The slogan "Hyenas": "Initiative - the main component of the terrorist style."

After the 2006 war of the year, in order to restore its image, Israel urgently needed a successful special operation that could become a national myth. It was this operation that the Mossad spent on the February night of 2008. In one of the suburbs of Damascus, a car was blown up, in which Imad was with his deputy. Israel deprived Hamas of its fierce enemy with one blow and beheaded the Hezbollah army, destroying its commander. The representative of the US State Department, Sean McCormack, commented on the liquidation: “Without this man, the world has become better.” It is unlikely that his successor can replace the evil genius of a secret war, the creator of the first defeat of the Israeli army.

Recently, Hizbollah headquarters constantly conduct command and staff exercises for the management of detachments and groups in various combat deployment options. Since 2006, the Hezbollah Army has also advanced in its development, new types of weapons of Western, Chinese, Russian and Iranian production have appeared. In particular, EW, RES, UAV, MANPADS. Regular reorganization was carried out. New ground-to-ground missiles are now shooting through almost the entire territory of Israel. There are special forces. The total length of the tunnels created for defensive purposes in the area of ​​Ku Yachi, exceeded 170 km, depth - up to 40 meters, in three or four tiers. They are located barracks, warehouses and launchers.

Israel, in turn, began to create special units to fight in underground tunnels, actively exploring the Vietnamese experience of the struggle of Americans with underground partisans. In Vietnam, these units were called "tunnel rats." An underground city simulating a complex network of Hezbollah underground bunkers was built for training and practicing underground war tactics in northern Israel.

Hezbollah has already begun the mobilization of all those who previously participated in the battles with Israel, with Sunni groups and in other internal armed conflicts. The general grouping of Hezbollah is to reach 15 - 20 thousand people.

Since that time, Hezbollah has a new adversary - Palestinian Hamas, a former ally in the fight against Israel, whose leadership is currently working on Qatari money. Hezbollah leaders said that everyone belonging to Hamas must leave Lebanon. It is known that at present the fighters of the Hamas battalion of the Izz al-Din al-Qassam Brigade are training militants in Syria for operations against the government army of the SAR and the units of the All-Union Hezbollah. It can be concluded that Hezbollah is a serious adversary for the Jewish state.

Time will tell whether Israel will succeed in exterminating the sect of modern assassins, as the Mongols did in their time to Hulagu. History teaches that you can never discount the factor "C" - the very factor of chance.