There will be no planes in 2024
Well, actually. The battles around the article have died down When Russia finally lands?, less than a month has passed since everything said in the material came to where we predicted.
“In general, the “successes” are so-so. And how do UAC representatives announce the construction of 600 vehicles by 2030? However, this has already happened in our country: today we loudly and tastefully say that by 2030 the Russian aviation industry will build 600 winged aircraft, and what will happen there in 2030 is a second question.
But it is not difficult to predict the complete failure of the promises, looking at the ghostly Tupolevs, which were never assembled last year, and may not be assembled this year either.
But this is different.
The principle “today we promise loudly, tomorrow we will come up with something to justify it” is being implemented by our officials at all levels of government much more clearly than plans to build castles in the air. Unfortunately".
But it is not difficult to predict the complete failure of the promises, looking at the ghostly Tupolevs, which were never assembled last year, and may not be assembled this year either.
But this is different.
The principle “today we promise loudly, tomorrow we will come up with something to justify it” is being implemented by our officials at all levels of government much more clearly than plans to build castles in the air. Unfortunately".
“And UAC and Rostec don’t have much time. No, of course, if justifications for disrupting another program have already been invented today, as was the case with “import substitution,” then there are no questions here. But then one question remains: will we fly on something other than balloons, or is it time to start preparing?”
And now, not even two weeks have passed since the UAC makes a statement that the delivery dates for MS-21, Superjet New, Tu-214 and Il-114-300 aircraft with entirely Russian components will be shifted. Naturally, to the right. And the dates are now called not 2024, which is already in full swing, but 2026.
Moreover, information began to appear in various publications that even if the aircraft were manufactured within the specified time frame, their characteristics would be radically different from those originally stated.
Well, with our optimism, we did not expect anything else, I will only note that by 2026 we will be ready to raise documents from That articles and comment on the successes of the UAC in full. This will be fair, since in Russia today the tendency has become very strong to bravo on camera to announce the date by which everything will be ready, and by the date to arrange complete silence and grace, as if nothing was promised.
In 2023, there was a large meeting within the walls of the Moscow Aviation Institute on the topic “Who is to blame?” and “What should I do?” That is, the problems of import substitution were discussed. Figures were announced: representatives of Yakovlev reported that 21 imported systems and components needed to be replaced in the MS-36, Sukhoi gave a figure of 37 components for the Superjet. And this is only for two aircraft that were initially declared as domestic!
That is, the situation turned out like this:
- you need to develop the necessary details in the drawings;
- connect the parts into units;
- prepare the necessary technical documentation for production;
- produce parts “in metal”;
- assemble the parts into a unit;
- carry out bench tests for strength, performance, service life;
- carry out full-scale tests on the aircraft;
- certify first the products, and then the aircraft with these products;
- determine the manufacturer of the parts;
- prepare a set of assembly documentation;
- begin production of units, testing, rejection and gradual replacement of imported ones.
A “subtle” point: if the decision was initially made to install imported equipment, components and parts on aircraft, this first of all indicates that we did not have this in foreseeable production.
In theory, that is, on paper, all products today have already been developed. This is not even what they say in the UAC, this is what they say in the OKB. The question is a test, and there are many difficult moments here. It is because of the tests that the PD-14 and PD-8 engines seem to exist in theory, but in practice they are not. Although they also exist in metal. But until the test cycle passes, there will be no certificate. Until there is a certificate, the aircraft with engines is not allowed to fly.
And of course, not a single manufacturing company will transfer its uncertified aircraft to airlines, even if the entire Russian aircraft fleet remains on the ground. Responsibility, you know, is such a thing... not very rewarding at times.
In one interview with MS-21 testers, it was said that one of the problems was too tight a time frame for testing and fine-tuning the equipment. Yes, as it was in the USSR: at any cost to the next party congress, but do it. And the MS-21 test program of 20 flights per month was approved. And everyone understood perfectly well that this was a completely unrealistic figure, because it’s simply impossible to drive a new car without breaking anything.
It (the equipment) must be tested in such a way that all shortcomings and defects can be identified. But if a situation arises where something in the system fails, breaks down, or malfunctions occur, then another operating algorithm is launched:
- tests are stopped;
- the product is removed, sent for examination, and the cause of the breakdown is determined;
- problems and shortcomings are eliminated;
- the modified/redesigned product is installed on the aircraft and testing continues.
Here's the third point right away: what if some part needs to be reworked? That is, the first algorithm is launched first, the part is made, the unit is assembled and everything goes off.
But is this done in a day? Of course not. So what are 20 flights a month? It is clear that those who developed and approved such a program did not have the slightest idea (or did not want to understand) how everything works. But this is normal for us today: whatever you want, it should be ready yesterday.
Well, in the end, a shift of two years. Some media outlets have already begun to put out information that, they say, the year 2026 was initially included in the plan, and then (!!!) Rostec “moved the deadlines to the left.” I don’t remember when this happened in the country, and my colleagues can’t remember either. But the way we know how to lie...
But the main thing is that deadlines are determined and approved by some, and fulfilled by others. But the further we go, the worse things will get for us, because there are fewer and fewer people doing the work and the quality is getting worse. The personnel problem is a problem that we prefer to remain silent about, and speak only when excuses are needed. Meanwhile, those involved in development are indeed becoming fewer and fewer, and funding for scientific development is becoming more modest from year to year. Hence the result.
And here I don’t even urge everyone to believe me a priori, but whoever has contacts in the Yakovlev Design Bureau, find out how many years and why a group of 42 people unsuccessfully tried to repeat the baking of the MS-21 wingtip. Import to replace American parts. It will be informative to know this history first-hand.
Further. Next, I would like to raise an aspect such as logistics. That is, timely delivery of materials. Picture: during testing, it turned out that the part was insufficiently strong. Let's call it “Product 47”. To manufacture the part, an aluminum blank weighing 12 kg is required. You will need a dozen details for everything. It is clear that the OKB is not engaged in aluminum smelting; this is a question for related companies. And they have their own laws, what can we say if the first batches of LNG from a plant built with budget money went not just abroad, but to an openly hostile country...
That is, any metal smelting plant will easily put OKB with its 100-kg order in the queue, because with regards to aluminum, there may be an order from the same KNAAZ for tens or hundreds of tons. Let's not forget what time we live in. War. And let it be called SVO, Tanks there they burn in exactly the same way, and planes are shot down, just like in the most ordinary war. And therefore military orders will have priority.
It is all clear, there is a possibility that the ministries understand everything and these problems are being solved, but the fact that they exist was voiced in the same Ministry of Industry and Trade in terms of the fact that the State Defense Order is much more important than everything else. Including civilian aviation.
Of course, sooner or later the SVO will end and everything will return to normal. The losses incurred will be compensated and the factories will gladly switch to producing civilian equipment. This is a completely normal practice, the only question here is time.
And time, especially when debugging a new product, is a consumable item like everything else. And everyone faces delays and offsets. Even Elon Musk.
Experts say that developing a new commercial airliner will take 10 years. There are cases when developers meet shorter deadlines, but the global average is: 10-12 years.
True, there are exceptions, just like what happened with the MS-21 and the Superjet. This is when the plane was made using the Lego system, that is, they took a project and adapted existing components and assemblies to it. In general, this is a common practice, both Boeing and Airbus do this, and there is nothing wrong with it, except for one thing: the aircraft begins to depend on third-party manufacturers. Again, nothing if politics does not interfere. In our case, she intervened and the planes actually landed on three points.
What remains? Yes, import substitution. But replacement also requires money and time. The situation is clear as day: the principle “If we don’t have our own, we’ll buy it.” Moreover, it could have been in development, but they preferred to buy it.
History already knows more than a dozen examples when Russian developments were discarded because they could buy imported ones and make money on it. Well, now the imported goods have run out, but ours is gone. You have to develop your own from scratch, and this is very difficult in our time.
And in this regard, many today are saying that absolutely all Russian commercial airliners will not be the same as previously stated, they will be heavier and with poorer flight characteristics.
Everything here is very twofold. Firstly, the prototype has always and at all times been different from the production aircraft. For the better, since it was assembled with somewhat different hands than production aircraft. There are plenty of examples in history, just take the same “Air Cobra”, with which there was such a scandal at one time: during demonstration flights, the R-39 produced 650-670 km/h and generally behaved like a bird. But the first production copies that Great Britain bought did not want to fly at such a speed, giving out 100 km/h less. And the Americans, in response to the indignant cries of the British, modestly made a move and said that this was an exhibition copy, but this is a production one...
And it's the same with us. Let’s say if our specialists couldn’t replicate the carbon fiber part of the wing, made from American materials, they would send the usual aluminum into battle. Naturally, the weight would increase. In general, we (UAC) found ourselves in a very difficult situation with components, which was created artificially. And there’s nothing you can do about it, you’ll have to put up with it and somehow start doing your own thing. Not to buy Chinese, although the Chinese have about the same aircraft manufacturing as ours, but to buy our own. Then over time there will be a level.
If we are talking about MS-21, then everything is simple: Rostec told reporters that “the final appearance of the completely import-substituted aircraft will be formed in the second half of this year”. Accordingly, there is no question of any release of 6 units of MS-21 in accordance with the order of the Government of the Russian Federation No. 2259-r dated August 22, 2023, which some representatives of the same Rostec shoved so hard in our faces; can not. But it's not as scary as it seems at first glance.
In general, there is information that in Irkutsk, in varying stages of assembly, there are 12 MS-21 units. But the point here is not even that they are not assembled, but that those six vehicles that should be delivered in 2024 and postponed for delivery in 2025-2026, they will wait until the end of the tests and only then be delivered to the customer . Having passed certification, of course.
Here the delay is not so bad, but: in 2025, the UAC must deliver another 12 MS-21s, which with six aircraft in 2024 is already 18 aircraft. Do you have that much in reserve? Will there be room to start assembling 22 MS-21s according to the 2026 plan?
Here it is clear that the “stalling” aircraft production program will be moved to the right ad infinitum, precisely because the first stage has failed. But here a delay of a year or two is not fatal, although it does threaten trouble.
And “Superjets”, which according to information from the editor-in-chief of the Avia.ru portal Roman Gusarov, 16 pieces have already been collected, they are also standing and waiting.
— Serial production of cars is already underway and will not stop. Let's say, the other day one of the bloggers had a report from the enterprise in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, where the SJ-100 is produced. It showed nine cars parked on the premises of the enterprise. According to my information, a total of 16 aircraft were assembled. As for the MS-21, 12 units have been assembled here.
— The main task here is to fine-tune the PD-8 engine. The process is currently at the flight testing stage. So, it will take more time until 2026. In general, it usually takes about two years from the first flight to the final version, when the vehicle is delivered to customers.
The situation is approximately the same with the PD-14, the “source” from which we started when working on the PD-8.
And you don’t have to touch the hydraulics, electronics, avionics and other components of the aircraft; problems with the engines are more than enough for the aircraft to remain in hangars or storage areas.
The main problem of today (and tomorrow) is that not a single one of the advertised and praised engines of the PD family (PD-14, PD-35, PD-8) has gone into series or is being mass-produced. And without engines there will be no planes.
The second problem is the lack of normal personnel, personnel shortage both in production and in the management of UAC-Rostec. Well, judge for yourself, the President of Russia delivers a message to the Federal Assembly to the whole country, saying that the country needs a large number of new aircraft, because the economy is developing, air transportation is required to increase significantly, in general, further development of the entire program for re-equipping the aviation industry is required...
And here you are on the same day - yes, yes, Vladimir Vladimirovich, everything is so, but we consulted at the UAC and decided to move the implementation of your programs to the right for a couple of years.
It just causes amazement and the question: what, on another day it was impossible to make such a bang? The obligatory condition is not to fulfill the promise and frame the president? Two in one bottle, as they say.
Who orders this music anyway?
Apparently, those who want orders and medals for their numbers. This is where these mythical 1000 aircraft appear in 6 years, oh no, 800, more precisely, 600. But we will definitely make 500 without light engines, that is, by 400 we will give 2030 airliners, as promised, all 300 in the sky. And 200 brand new planes will carry Russians on their wings throughout the country and beyond.
I wonder if they will manage at least a hundred aircraft by 2030?
Of course, in 2030 we will have an unforgettable show of intense passions. UAC and everyone else will tell you why they did not master the plan they themselves wrote to produce thousands of aircraft. It will really be interesting to listen, because their effective managers will have to come up with something more interesting than international sanctions on completely (according to reports) import-substituted purely Russian aircraft.
Of course, writing essentially worthless pieces of paper with hundreds of mythical aircraft is much easier than answering the question why we still don’t have engines that have been developed almost since the beginning of Russian modern history?
Because we have a systemic personnel crisis. We don't have enough professionals in our country. There was a substitution when, instead of aviation specialists, these came... who are effective. Who are excellent at giving a presentation, giving an interview, speaking in front of an audience or on camera. But they don’t know a damn thing about what they should know about—building airplanes.
And it was these people who at one time at the MAKS exhibition did not allow the great Genrikh Vasilyevich Novozhilov back in 2003 to talk to the president and simply show him the difference between his “Il” and the rest of the “Boeings” and “Airbuses”. There were no kickbacks for Ilya, which is why we have what we have today.
Probably, these gentlemen are hoping to the last that a separate peace will be concluded and everything will return to normal. And again old Boeings will flow into the air fleets like a river, and legally earned money will flow into their pockets. From Europeans and Americans.
It is clear that you cannot buy a villa in Spain on Ila. And a golf club.
The reality is that with a full complement of these unpatriotic and ignorant liars, we really have a nightmare in terms of the availability of engineers, designers, technologists and workers. There is not enough of everything, there is not enough of the practically destroyed system of vocational education, there is not enough of our own machine tool industry, which has also been practically destroyed, there is not enough spare parts for the imported machine tools, which because of this turn into expensive scrap metal.
Let me end by quoting one of the truly brilliant Soviet and Russian aircraft designers with a capital letter, Genrikh Novozhilov: “Our industry leaders are not experts in the field they supervise.”.
He had the right to say such words, a man who gave his entire life to the aviation of our country until his last day. And Novozhilov, unlike many “effective” ones, saw the essence of the problems plaguing the Russian aviation industry.
Without aviation, Russia and its territory are simply not serious. We need aviation. Passenger, transport, military - our own. Independent from anyone. Neither from foreign suppliers, it doesn’t matter, from the West or from “friendly partners” from the East, it doesn’t matter at all.
And Russia doesn’t need pieces of paper and loud statements on camera – Russia needs airplanes. I wonder if this will ever be understood where these worthless plans are written?
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