When will Russia finally land?
"Who is guilty?" and “What should I do?” - these are questions that have already become classics in our country. And the answers of those who are really to blame become classics. But this does not change the situation and Russia faces a complete landing in the most literal sense of the term.
Necessary deviation from the editors: This article was already published, after which we received a wave of claims from the Rostec press service. Since we don’t understand anything, they’ll sue us, and if you don’t know, there’s no point in writing anything here. In general, this is not the first time this has happened, but this time for some reason he ignored a similar and even harsher article in the Free Press. Dead "carcass". Plans to build hundreds of aircraft by 2030 are unrealistic. No, we are, of course, pleased that Military Review is considered a more respected and readable publication than SP, but it didn’t turn out very nicely.
However, the Rostec press service handed over to the editor one document that really sheds some light on the situation and makes us think even more, for which we are deeply grateful to him. In general, we have always been in favor of communicating on a civilized level with all representatives of government agencies and giving them the floor, even if they correct us in some way.
So, we were talking about the fact that Russia could actually be left without an aircraft fleet.
All imported airliners that will have exhausted their service life will land and will not go anywhere, and will also be left without original spare parts and branded service. And all these fairy tales about parallel imports - they will remain fairy tales, because Boeing and Airbus are not fools. And it’s not so easy to organize the supply of necessary spare parts through intermediaries, especially if the manufacturer monitors every screw.
Many today have no illusions about the future fate of the Boeings and Airbuses of Russian airlines. Everything is sad with them: they are simply not allowed into some countries, and where they are accepted, they are not served there. And, you must admit, when the outcome of a flight depends on whether the required spare part is obtained on time or not, this is so-so.
But it is clear that in just a few years, Western aircraft will come to an end. At least, the manufacturers themselves, who have been diligently ruining our aircraft industry since the 80s of the last century, will make every effort to do this.
But it would seem: in addition to Mikoyan and Sukhoi, we also seem to have Ilyushin, Yakovlev, Tupolev... What about our industry? They say from Channel One that she has finally risen from her knees...
In general, there is industry. And the design bureaus of Mikoyan, Yakovlev, Tupolev, Ilyushin and Sukhoi, which have successfully (to one degree or another) survived into the 21st century, also exist. Under the wing of UAC, the United Aircraft Corporation, behind which is Rostec.
But there are no planes. Strange, isn't it? There are designers, there are engineers, there are factories, but there are no airplanes. Fighters and bombers, however, are mostly produced without problems. It’s already much worse with transport vehicles, but not at all with passenger ones.
The Russian industry, which has risen from its knees, is not able to produce passenger airliners even in the “Armata” mode, that is, manually and piece by piece.
I just really want to ask: where are the planes?
Let's go through the list.
Sukhoi SuperJet 100. You can forget about this aircraft from 2022, since it will no longer be produced. The reason is the lack of French avionics and engines. The sensational import substitution replaced everything imported and the result was another Superjet, Superjet NEW. There are plans for it, and some agreements of intent are being signed, but the aircraft will begin production when the PD-8 engine is available.
"I won't talk about what needs to be done in combat. aviation. But if we take into account only the state civil order, by 2030 UEC needs to increase engine supplies tenfold. Already next year it is necessary to produce over 40 PD-8 engines for the import-substituted SJ-100 and a dozen PD-14 for the medium-haul MS-21-300 with subsequent scaling up of serial production,” said the head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation Denis Manturov, speaking at the plenary session “Engine Building” in afterburner. Industry priorities in modern conditions."
MS-21. Since 2016, “things are still there,” nothing has changed. The Irkut company seems to have concluded a bunch of contracts, but there is still no plane. In 2009, Deputy General Director of the OKB named after. Yakovlev Arkady Gurtovoy said at the MAKS-2009 air show that serial production should begin in 2016. In February 2019, the head of Rostec, Sergei Chemezov, announced that the launch date for mass production of the MS-21 had been shifted to the end of 2020. In January 2022, Chemezov again announced that the launch date for the series was being shifted again - already to 2024.
Tu-214. In general, this is a Tu-204, which first flew in 1989. An aircraft that, in theory, could be produced without problems, but... Even taking into account that the differences between the Tu-204 and Tu-214 are minimal, alas, no one saw the THREE aircraft ordered for 2023. The production of 2024 (seven) aircraft is planned for 7, with a cumulative total of 10.
IL-114-300. This is also a guest from the past; the first flight of the Il-114 took place in 1990. And in 2014, President Putin personally ordered the Government to produce the Il-114. They quickly came up with a new name for the Il-114-300 and developed another Plan, according to which the Il-114-300 should be created at the turn of 2020-2021.
Well, then everything went as usual: the first flight of the Il-114-300 actually took place in 2020 (by the way, according to plan), but with the production of “about 12 Il-114-300 aircraft annually after 2021” - this did not work out . As a result, the serial production dates were moved to 2023, now it’s 2024, but there are no planes.
Moreover, given that the Il-114-300, for the sake of unification, was equipped with frankly weak and unreliable TV7-117ST engines, which the Il-112V tried to fly with. With all the ensuing consequences.
The first 8 Il-114-300s with the new layout should be delivered in 2024 and another 8 in 2025. So on May 26, 2022, First Deputy Prime Minister Andrei Belousov announced, approving a program to support the purchase of new Russian aircraft.
IL-96-300. In many sources you can see the status “produced by VASO” at the present time. Available, yes. Since 1989, 29 aircraft have been manufactured. For 35 years. And I very clearly emphasize that in its current state, if VASO can produce one aircraft in two years, it will be simply wonderful.
So what do we have? Three frankly old Soviet aircraft that, at the very least, can be produced. And they are suitable at least for domestic airlines. If the IL-114 engines are brought to fruition, if VASO is put in order.
But here’s the problem: domestic carriers are not at all eager to operate old Soviet cars. It’s hard to say what the catch is, but of the more than 70 Tu-204/214 available in Russia, half are in reserve storage. The rest are operated mainly by departments and organizations: SLO "Russia", Russian Air Force, Russian Guard, Russian Post, KAZ named after. Gorbunov, RSC Energia and so on. Airlines are in no hurry to take off the Tu-204.
In general, everything is not easy with the Il-114-300; after the Il-112V crash, they openly look askance at the plane, although the Il-112V is a separate misfortune that has nothing to do with the Il-114. But the engines are frankly weak and unreliable, which is what it is.
The IL-96-300 will not solve the problems simply because it will not be possible to produce it at Soviet rates.
As for the Superjet NEW and MC-21, everything is simple: first you need to replace everything imported that was in these aircraft, and there was up to 70-80%. And first of all – engines.
In general, of course, it is a shame and disgrace for the Spanish to have inherited the USSR aircraft industry and beg for engines from the French. But this was the line the authorities had, nothing could be done about it. Boeing and Airbus were simply destroying the entire Soviet legacy before our eyes, accustoming everyone to their aircraft. Trained. Now there are problems, but the main problems are still ahead.
In September 2022, at the Eastern Economic Forum, Aeroflot airlines and the manufacturer UAC signed an agreement of intent to purchase 40 Tu-214s, 7 of which will be delivered in 2024. UAC did not deliver the planes, but the horror is not in seven planes.
There, at the forum, the figures were proudly announced: by 2030 it is planned to purchase 339 aircraft. 210 MS-21, 89 Sukhoi Superjet-NEW, 40 Tu-214. But in fact, if you look at the Decree of the Government of the Russian Federation of August 22, 2023, everything is much worse in some respects, because the numbers there are somewhat different. And according to the Resolution, the light should be seen by 2030 527 aircraft from the list above: MS-21 - 270 units, SSJ-NEW - 142 units, Tu-214 - 115 units.
But there is doubt that they (the planes) will not be built. And the reason for this is downright historically common for our country: engines. There is no exact data on how many PD-14s were produced, but for 2024 the plan is 12! And these, naturally, are not production engines, but prototypes for testing. And how long the tests will last is a question. And for 210 MS-21, initially “only” 540 engines will be required. Even if a miracle happens - 90 engines per year? No, there won't be a miracle. The release plan will be given below.
With Superjet NEW it’s about the same, but in smaller volumes. Simply because PD-8, which traces its lineage to PD-14, which doesn’t really exist, is at approximately the same stage of development.
On August 29, 2023, the “import-substituted” Sukhoi Superjet New made its first flight. But with the French SaM146 engine. The second prototype of the aircraft will be tested with Russian PD-8 engines. In October 2023, many media reported a joyful news: The PD-8 engine was first launched on the SJ-100 aircraft.
That is, they simply screwed the engine on and turned it on. The engine turned on. All.
In general, the “successes” are so-so. And how do UAC representatives announce the construction of 600 vehicles by 2030? However, this has already happened in our country: today we loudly and tastefully say that by 2030 the Russian aviation industry will build 600 winged aircraft, and what will happen there in 2030 is a second question.
But it is not difficult to predict the complete failure of the promises, looking at the ghostly Tupolevs, which were never assembled last year, and may not be assembled this year either.
But this is different.
The principle “today we promise loudly, tomorrow we will come up with something to justify it” is being implemented by our officials at all levels of government much more clearly than plans to build castles in the air. Unfortunately.
But here is another question: an additional 600 billion rubles are allocated for the construction of 2030 aircraft by 280. That's it, we've learned how to master budgets, so we have room to expand. And there is time until 2030 to come up with excuses for why 600 aircraft will not be built.
photo from the press service of Sochi Airport from the telegram channel t.me/aeroaer/
Literally at the release of the article, information appeared: the first Tu-214 began operating on the Moscow-Sochi line. But honest media added: rebuilt Tu-214. That is, converted from a Tu-204. And not a word about the new ones, those numbering 3 + 7.
That, of course, is “success”. There is something to report on: a completely new Tu-204 was cut from the old Tu-214. Peremoga as it is.
In general, make the Soviet Il-96, Tu-204 and Il-114 one by one. And yell at everyone like they’re yelling at a flight to Mars. This, you see, is our policy now.
And don’t let anyone worry about the fact that Boeings and Airbuses will be able to transport Russians for another five to six years at most. Even if there are no engines, these “promising” Superjet NEW and MC-21 will not exist. The “morally obsolete” Il-96-300, Tu-214, Il-114 will be made absolutely calmly. Is it possible to fly? Can. And the fact that airplanes, like models, are 30+ - there is someone to blame for everything.
But to build 100 aircraft a year - for this you still need to have a lot of things besides billions of rubles. Undoubtedly, billions are such an important component; without them, planes cannot be built, it has been verified. And the presence of such amounts cannot but rejoice.
But besides money, we need people who will turn money into planes
But with this today it is much more difficult than even with machine tools. Those who built the Il-30, Tu-114 and Il-204 96 years ago are mostly retired, if not further. But somehow the state was not able to prepare a replacement for them, alas. The ideas that have been promoted for years that working in an air trading office is the maximum that every young person should aspire to have done their job. And today, younger generations want to be IT specialists, bloggers, and online traders. But not turners, millers, installers. “I’m a bad person to go to the factory” - I’m sure everyone has heard such a phrase from undergrown people at least once in their life.
And here is the result: there are plans to build 100 aircraft a year, there is money, there is metal, everything is there. Or almost everything. There are no people to build aircraft in such quantities. And those who exist are also not of the highest quality. How else can one explain the impossibility of building three, just three, Tu-214s?
But perhaps the worst thing is the practically disappearing class of design engineers. We will talk about this in more detail in the very near future using the example of several military factories at once, but for now we can say that in the country as a whole the scale of the disaster is catastrophic, and soon those who will have to develop new equipment will simply not be left as such.
Automation, which we have been promised for a long time, is not a panacea at all. Yes, in some places it is really useful, but there are a huge number of operations when creating an aircraft that are done manually and only manually.
“We need to develop our own aircraft manufacturing. I hope that all the plans – and we plan to produce over one thousand of our own aircraft by 2030 – will be implemented.”
Who said this, remember? That's right, Russian President Vladimir Vladimirovich Putin. And not so long ago, December 14, 2023, on a straight line. Remember, “over 1 aircraft.” Everything is in accordance with the Government Decree.
And there is really only one way out - first to revive those who will build airplanes. From designers to assemblers. Through those who will cut metal, rivet, weld, solder and assemble. Then the output will be a thousand aircraft. No - there will be miserable units that will be assembled by workers in their free time from their main work.
I didn't make a mistake. It is in their free time from their main work, and the main job of aircraft factory workers today is the production of new and repair of old combat aircraft.
And where will the working masses who will assemble these aircraft come from? The factories are not very good with staff now, but “effective managers” have tried their best. This “there are crowds behind the fence” played its role: there are no crowds and there are not many people in the workshops.
I won’t go far, here is a link to the official website of the same VASO: Work at an aircraft factory
Who does the plant need? Yes, all working professions! And pay attention to this cry of despair from personnel officers: they are ready to pay for every specialist brought in. All this is not due to a good life, and here the gentlemen of the plant’s management are reaping the fruits of their effective management: the people are not very eager for the indicated salaries, because the whole city knows: only the management lives well at VASO, the rest - as best they can.
Well, the fact that a design engineer, a person with a higher education, in rubles costs half as much as a turner-miller - this is a Spanish shame.
There are places, Kazan and Ulyanovsk, where everything is much better. And many former VASO specialists now work there. And who will assemble the IL-96 is a question to which I have no answer.
This is the same Resolution from which Putin took the figures for his speech. That is, not from the air, but from a document on which more than one hundred people worked. Why - it will become clear below, for now do not pay attention to the fact that the numbering is not in order, we do not need everything related to helicopters for now.
Here we have the forecasted needs and forecasted indicators for the supply of equipment. That is, how many units are needed and how many are planned to be supplied. Everything is clearly visible, and by the end of this year it will be possible to understand how to implement it. Will 20 SSJ-NEW and 10 Tu-214 be pumped out of the workshops? Yes, ten “Tu”, because three did not arrive last year.
Here are our engines:
It’s close as it is, but I’m glad that the plans also include the construction of additional units.
In general, everything is written very confidently, but here’s the problem: the doubts have not gone away. Let's take Ladoga, for example. We had news of this nature: Named the timing of the first flight of a promising regional passenger aircraft TVRS-44 "Ladoga" . In a nutshell: the first flight of the aircraft is planned for the first quarter of 2024; in the second quarter, the second flight model of Ladoga should join the tests. At the end of 2024, they plan to obtain a type certificate for the aircraft, and enter mass production in 2025.
Well, half of the first quarter of 2024 is already behind us. There's only about a month and a half left. There are, however, certain doubts, and they are called TV7-117ST. The TV7-117S was poor and disgusting, so everyone who could of it abandoned it in favor of American engines. The next TV7-117SM was, they say, better, but for some reason it didn’t go into production. And TV7-117ST... The Il-112V flew on it. And I don’t want to say anything more, because we all know how the Il-112V tried to fly. They actually found each other - the engine and the airframe. Let's see what happens with Ladoga.
By the way, for some reason on social networks in the Urals they give slightly different deadlines for the completion of Ladoga. 2026, or even 2027. But who believes social networks, right? But we will closely monitor the process. This year should be fundamental for Ladoga. Although, of course, calling the construction of an aircraft based on an imported aircraft from the 80s of the last century, which has not yet gone into mass production, a breakthrough...
The fate of the prototype, Let L-610, was full of oddities, but in the end, whoever ordered the plane (Aeroflot) refused it, but now, after so many years, they bought the documentation and... in short, let’s look at it with three eyes. And we hope that we will be able to successfully return “back to the future” - to master the production of aircraft fifty years ago. If you're lucky, of course.
And there is only one way here - to restore the lost Soviet aircraft industry, there are simply no other options and now there are unlikely to be any, these options.
But not only will it be necessary to produce airplanes, it will also be necessary to train people throughout the country who will begin to service them. Or does anyone seriously believe that today’s technicians, who have never seen anything except Boeing and Airbus, will one day master the Il-96?
And spare parts for maintenance will have to be produced by trainloads...
Remember what Poghosyan got burned for? How he praised his Superjet that it was the best in the world, the cheapest and most reliable, just like the Su fighter. Let's put it this way - Mr. Poghosyan took on the work of the operator, because only the one who operates it can evaluate the aircraft. But not a builder.
And then the entire aviation world abandoned the Superjet, because it was not a “Super”, but simply a flying “Lego”, 75% consisting of imported components. And why did they refuse? Yes, because Mr. Poghosyan simply could not organize maintenance of the aircraft after the sale. And the Superjet became absolutely unnecessary for anyone.
Indeed, who needs an airplane for which spare parts must be collected from catalogs all over the world? Well, now that the French sent us with their engine, the plane is even more dead until something of their own appears.
In general, the moment when Russian Boeings and Airbuses land completely and irrevocably is not far off. There are more and more reports of breakdowns and accidents, and sooner or later, all these planes will end up on the ground. And God forbid, just on the outskirts of airports, and not in corn fields.
And UAC and Rostec don’t have much time. No, of course, if justifications for disrupting another program have already been invented today, as was the case with “import substitution,” then there are no questions here. But then one question remains: will we fly on something other than balloons, or is it time to start preparing?
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