Yes, after all, the Su-24
Well, everything turned out as we predicted in the most recent past. Here: Storm Shadow: what's next, what to prepare for?
It was in this article that we tried to consider as objectively as possible all the options for using the Storm Shadow rocket and, on the whole, guessed right.
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Sioux 24M
And here is quite. Beam holders BD4-U can quite easily hang THREE units of weapons weighing 1500 kg. Yes, in the original it is the FAB-1500, but this is no longer so important, because structurally the aircraft can lift such ammunition.
Plus, the Su-24 is still a two-seat bomber, so everything is easier in terms of preliminary operations.
And here is quite. Beam holders BD4-U can quite easily hang THREE units of weapons weighing 1500 kg. Yes, in the original it is the FAB-1500, but this is no longer so important, because structurally the aircraft can lift such ammunition.
Plus, the Su-24 is still a two-seat bomber, so everything is easier in terms of preliminary operations.
Well, here is the official confirmation from the Ukrainian side. The photo, published by Ukrainian resources, autographed supposedly from the British Minister of Defense to Ukrainian, shows exactly the Su-24 of the Ukrainian Air Force, armed with the Storm Shadow cruise missile supplied by the UK.
Yes, this is an important piece of evidence. Indeed, the Su-24 was the aircraft that seemed to us the most suitable for the use of this type of weapon, and Storm Shadow under the pylon on the fixed part of the wing shows this perfectly.
However, if you are not too lazy and find this photo in a higher resolution, for example, from the Ukraine Weapons Tracker on Twitter (I don’t know where they got hold of it), then some experts concluded from it that the photo is not a Su-24M, not a front-line bomber, but a more exotic version of the Su-24MR, a tactical reconnaissance aircraft.
The main difference between the Su-24MR and the conventional Su-24 was the absence of offensive weapons, and it wasn’t very good with defensive weapons: all that the Su-24Mr had to protect against the enemy was two R-60 missiles. Today, of course, the R-60 is completely outdated, something more modern is suspended instead, but the essence of this does not change. Two missiles.
The rest of the Su-24MR is an electronic filling for collecting and processing information inside the fuselage, plus containers with the same on the external sling.
Accordingly, there is where to initially place the Storm Shadow guidance and control equipment. Here you can fantasize for a very long time about what can be thrown out of the electronic filling, but you can easily say goodbye to cameras, for example.
The main thing is that the Su-24MR from the very beginning has the potential to replace equipment with a British missile control system. Of course, a separate interesting question is who and where carried out the re-equipment, but I am sure that the Ukrainians could manage on their own quite easily and naturally. They still have enough specialists.
Yes, less than a dozen Su-24MRs (officially 9 units) were in service with the Ukrainian Air Force before the start of the NMD, but you don’t need a lot. It is enough to re-equip one or two aircraft and what the Ukrainians do, that is, to deliver disturbing strikes, is possible even without dozens of missile carriers.
And the fact that Storm Shadow arrive in pairs indirectly proves this.
A single aircraft quietly crept up to the required distance, quickly (and the Su-24 can do this, however, very loudly) gains the required altitude, launch, turn and go home. Something extremely complex? No.
Now the 24s need more careful monitoring by our surveillance equipment, since yes, not every Su-24 can carry Storm Shadow, but only Su-24s fly with Storm Shadow.
MiG-29 and Su-27 are still not suitable for moving such large missiles. Being all the same fighters (especially the Su-27), they were not supposed to lift such heavy missiles according to the project. 1300 kg is no joke, the “thickest” missile from the Su-27 arsenal, the R-27, weighed a maximum of 350 kg.
Our overseas colleague Thomas Newdick from NI noted that the Su-24MR was never equipped with sighting equipment for air-to-ground strike weapons such as the Orion radar or the Kaira laser-television system, but this doesn’t say anything for sure. about which, besides the fact that such equipment was provided to Kiev in advance and moreover, most likely, together with specialists who helped to make not only installation, but also fine-tuning and calibration.
Moreover, no one is talking about dozens of aircraft converted in this way. If you look at the number of hits with Storm Shadows, then you can definitely say that the maximum that the Armed Forces have at their disposal is a couple of such carriers, no more.
But more is not needed.
There is one more argument for the conversion of the Su-24MR. This is a small number of Su-24Ms left in Kyiv. Yes, according to reports by Mr. Konashenkov, each of these aircraft was shot down at least twice, but nevertheless, something is left there, if you look at the reports of Konashenkov's colleagues on the other side.
In general, it is difficult with the Su-24M: if you collect data from open sources, then from 17 to 24 aircraft of this model were shot down during the entire time of the SVO. And having raised the data on the number of these aircraft BEFORE the start of the NMD, we will understand that there were, as it were, considerably fewer of them, from 12 to 14. It is clear that the Allies could have thrown something, it is clear that they could have attributed something. But the bottom line is that the Su-24M is an aircraft in demand, since it is the only attack aircraft at the disposal of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. The MiG-29 can, of course, take FABs, but they are of little use.
Therefore, of course, it made sense to leave the Su-24M for its work precisely as an attack aircraft, and to convert anyone, even a reconnaissance aircraft, even an electronic warfare aircraft, into a missile carrier. There would be conditions, as they say.
As for what work was done to integrate the Storm Shadow into the Su-24MR, it remains unclear. It is beautiful in terms of secrecy, it is not at all clear who, where and when did it. But he did, so you can only accept this fact.
In theory, the process shouldn't be too complicated, since the Storm Shadow missile is pre-programmed with target coordinates before flight, meaning there's no need for an interface to allow the aircraft to feed in new guidance data before launch. This also means that the missile can be fired by the Su-24MR, since the strike radar and laser-television system will not be required. It is enough just to let the rocket "see" the target, and that's it. Then modern technology will handle itself.
There is almost no doubt that Ukrainian engineers are capable of this. Here, in general, there is nowhere to go: either we set / adapt, or we dry crackers. But, given that they, engineers, really have something to boast about, we will take it on faith.
Indeed, the anti-radiation missile AGM-88 (HARM) has been integrated on the MiG-29 and Su-27 and is used with varying degrees of success, but it is being used. And the wiser JDAM-ER bombs were also somehow adapted to the MiG-29, but the Politico newspaper, known for its spies, “surrendered” the Pentagon specialists who helped the Ukrainians.
But in fact, two cases of adaptation of a Western high-precision weapons there are already Soviet developments for existing aircraft. More precisely, three, Su-24 and Storm Shadow - the third.
On Storm Shadow, in the light of the planned counter- and other offensives, the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is making big bets. The JDAM-ER is a good thing, but its range of up to 70 km is frankly too small and is more of a tactical value than a strategic one.
But Storm Shadow is a different alignment. The missile makes it possible to keep in suspense almost the entire Crimea, and even the overland continental road to the peninsula. It is clear that launching Storm Shadow on such objects is a very difficult task, but who prevents you from working out all versions?
Moreover, the Ukrainian military naturally has a desire to hit targets on Russian territory. And it is quite large. Yes, the same Storm Shadow was provided to the Armed Forces of Ukraine by British partners "on parole" that the missiles would not be used on the territory of Russia, but even here there are nuances.
Representatives of the UK said that Storm Shadow were delivered on the condition that the Armed Forces of Ukraine would use them exclusively on their territory, but Crimea, Kherson, Zaporozhye, Donetsk and Luhansk regions are still Ukraine for Kiev. So strikes against these territories will be quite justified for the Ukrainian side from a political point of view.
The range of Storm Shadow is just on the edge of the distance between Ukrainian-controlled territory and Sevastopol in Crimea. But launching from an optimal altitude would require flying straight into the arms of Russian air defenses, which can control Ukrainian airspace well beyond the line of contact.
The strategically and politically important bridge across the Kerch Strait is far beyond the reach of Storm Shadow launched from the front line, but firstly, a counteroffensive can change everything, and secondly, there may be a pilot who dares to break through the air defenses and strike at the bridge.
Still, there are targets for Storm Shadow that are much closer than the Crimean Bridge. And for the very distant ones, there are even more long-range weapons. Such as the coveted German Taurus KEPD 350 air-launched missiles. Already in the German environment there is talk that there is a possibility of delivering these missiles to Ukraine, and this weapon can greatly upset the balance of the parties. But there will be a separate discussion about Taurus next time.
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