Will China save MiG?
This material is a compilation of comprehension of materials on the Su-35, Su-57, MiG-35 and MiG-31, which have been released recently. Indeed, the situation that is developing around JSC RAC "MiG" causes a very complex set of feelings: bewilderment, surprise, misunderstanding.
Indeed, just recently we condemned the merger aviation concerns "Su" and "MiG", because they understood that the aircraft manufacturers of these firms made such different aircraft that the crossing of "hedgehog and snake" looked more than doubtful.
However, as events since 2001 (when the first tender for the development of a fifth-generation fighter was played) have shown, over the past 20 years RAC MiG has created absolutely NOTHING. Having lost the continuation of the Soviet tender for a new generation fighter (let me remind you that in 1986 MiG put up its project 1.44, and Sukhoi - Su-47) in May 2001, the MiG concern was no longer noticed in new projects.
We understand this: for twenty years, several hundred people simply received a salary, producing practically nothing. And this is not just a shop for the production of squash caviar, it is an aircraft building corporation, which includes design bureaus, test centers, and production facilities of factories in Moscow, Lukhovitsy, Kalyazin, Nizhny Novgorod.
But, alas, this is a fact: for twenty years nothing has been created at RAC MiG that could justify the very existence of the corporation. And you must admit that an aircraft manufacturing corporation that does not develop and does not build aircraft is just unnecessary ballast that needs to be disposed of.
True, the leadership of MiG stubbornly believes that this is not so. And at the disposal of RAC "MiG" there are products with a great future. For example, the MiG-35.
MiG-35: flown into history. Yes, it was under this name that we spoke just recently about the fate of the MiG-35 fighter and that it could help out the corporation and be useful to the Russian Air Force. MiG-35: flies into history as unnecessary
And indeed, a light fighter paired with a heavy one, exactly as described in the material, is not a bad tactic. It would really be useful if not for one "BUT".
Every medal has two sides.
If you look very carefully at the MiG-29M - MiG-29M2 - MiG-29SMT - MiG-35 chain, then the difference will be, of course, but not critical. The engine is still the same RD-33, nicknamed "Diesel", for its smoke and gluttony, which does not provide a decent flight range for a light fighter. While "Sushki" can simply "hang" for several hours in the air, "MiGs" have only recently got rid of the offensive nickname "short drive aircraft". It was in the modification of the MiG-29SMT, when additional fuel tanks appeared behind the cockpit (they are such a characteristic “hump”), that the flight duration increased to more than two hours.
In fact, the difference between the MiG-29SMT and the MiG-35 is minimal. Both have the same ancestor, the MiG-29M2, only the MiG-29SMT was developed "for itself", and the MiG-35 was understood as several projects, often focused on sale.
Yes, in 2019, at the MAKS air show, RAC MiG showed the “new” MiG-35 (not to be confused with the presentation in Lukhovitsy, at the plant. It was in 2017). With a new (real) radar with AFAR from the Fazotron Research Institute and a new avionics complex from the Ramensky Instrument-Making Bureau. Quite like an upgrade, but...
But the question arises: why did the Russian Aerospace Forces refuse to buy the aircraft? Do they not understand their happiness or do they understand too well?
Regarding the fact that the MiG-35, on which the RSU "MiG" had such hopes, was bought by the VKS in a "huge" amount of 6 pieces, there were more than enough versions.
I think that the truth is that the aircraft that made its first flight in 1977 (namely, then the MiG-29 flew) simply exhausted all the possibilities of modernization. Let's call it the Indian point of view. Hindus, famous buyers of our weapons, for 12 years they played a competition for the purchase of aircraft, and as a result, RAC MiG lost this competition miserably.
One can talk for a long time about bias, bias, pressure and so on towards Indian partners, but everything is killed by one question: why did Russia not acquire such a beautiful aircraft for itself?
After all, the “same” MiG-35 was already equipped with a radar with AFAR at the beginning of the games with the Indians. So it's not about electronics. The point is an outdated airframe and frankly old and inefficient engines. It is quite possible that the installation of a new engine would have delayed the retirement of the aircraft, but ... Probably, it would have been easier to develop a new aircraft.
This is obviously the problem here.
Problems of a personnel nature. There are no people, designers who can really work on the creation of aircraft in MiG. They say that the era of those who knew how to think through aircraft "to the screw" ended with Vladimir Barkovsky. Only "effective managers" remained, for whom the sale of land in the Dynamo area is much more important than the development of new aircraft.
By the way, Barkovsky, who actually became the last real general designer, came from the Sukhoi system. But he knew how to build airplanes. But in general, all the last critical years, MiG was headed by leaders from the competitor company Sukhoi - Nikitin, Fedorov, Pogosyan, Korotkov. Completely without hints and comments,
As a result, RAC "Mig", left without design engineers, and in 2011-12 there were many articles on this topic, talk about extremely beggarly salaries in RAC "MiG" appeared regularly, degraded completely and irrevocably.
The only thing the company is good at is building the MiG-29 and upgrading it in small quantities. There are still buyers. But buyers for such an old aircraft are not an eternal and thankless task. The example of India and Algeria is very indicative, although the Algerian MiG-29SMT was generally useful to the Russian Aerospace Forces.
So, the situation is ahovskoe. There are no orders for the MiG-29, the MiG-35, which does not differ much from the MiG-29SMT, is also not very interested in foreign buyers. Today, everyone in the world prefers machines with modernization potential, capable of serving for a long time, and most importantly, cheap. Cheap MiGs can serve, but everyone has questions about the duration and modernity.
The whole question is how long RAC "MiG" will last on the repair of Egyptian, Syrian and Iranian MiG-29s. In principle, the plane has already become the same symbol as the AK-47, that is, an aircraft for the Air Force of third world countries. Eritrea, Cuba, North Korea…
In general, the well-being of the RAC "MiG" is completely dependent on the enterprise "Rosoboronexport", which is the only supplier of orders for the RAC. If they conclude contracts with Rosoboronexport for the supply or modernization of the MiG-29, there will be work. No, it's understandable.
And in fact, orders from third world countries for the MiG-29 are all that RAC MiG can count on.
Apparently, everyone understands everything. Hence the cessation of attempts to "unwind" the MiG. The main evidence that everyone at all levels of power has already given up is the fact that the RAC MiG plant in Lukhovitsy is defined as a production facility for the production of Il-114 passenger aircraft.
The fact that aircraft will be assembled at an aviation enterprise is wonderful. But the fact that the IL-114 is definitely not a military aircraft, I think, is not worth saying.
So, if the MiG-29 is of interest, then the countries that are not able to buy anything newer. The MiG-29SMT and MiG-35 are of no interest at all, apparently, to no one, for the reasons indicated above. What remains of the RAC "MiG"? In addition to the option to finally dissolve in the RAC "Dry"?
Of the entire range of aircraft, the MiG-31 remained. And there is a very interesting point here.
China is showing interest in the MiG-31. Moreover, you can add the word "again", because once the PRC already wanted to buy these aircraft in the 90s, and not just buy, but also acquire a license for production. But something did not work out, and the PRC, having bought the production rights for almost the entire line of Su-27s, refused the license for the MiG-31 and the interceptors themselves.
Apparently, in the nineties, the command of the PLA of the PRC did not see much point in such aircraft as the MiG-31. In fact, the PRC does not have such a huge border as Russia, and therefore there was no need for super-fast and combat-independent interceptors.
But the PLA Air Force has problems of a slightly different nature.
China has fully mastered the development and production of hypersonic weapons. But these weapons require carriers. The dynamically (even too much) developing PLA fleet requires cover, but the program to create Chinese missile carriers is frankly late.
Problems with the creation of the Xian H-20 strategic bomber, which has been under development for more than 20 years, and the Xian H-6, which is a copy of the Soviet Tu-16, cannot be a carrier of hypersonic weapons due to its high-speed qualities.
The question is that the aircraft carrier of hypersonic weapons must have sufficient speed and height, playing the role of the first stage. Or, it must be an aircraft with a decent payload.
In general, a carrier of hypersonic weapons is conceived as either a heavy strategic bomber that is capable of carrying to a great height and launching several hypersonic missiles from there, or a less noticeable aircraft capable of dispersing the "light version" of the missile, as happened with the "Dagger".
Successful testing and use of the Kinzhal complex, consisting of the MiG-31K carrier and the 9-C-7760 hypersonic missile. The 9-S-7760 missile is an aviation variation of the Iskander OTRK.
Similar developments exist in China. As well as the problems of delivering hypersonic missiles to the launch lines. Still, the PRC has very peculiar borders and neighbors, with whom disputes periodically arise. These are mountainous regions practically inaccessible to technology, and sea and ocean spaces. That is, the plane seems to be a completely normal way to deliver a rocket to the launch line.
MiG-31K could solve this problem for China. And China could solve the problems of survival for RAC MiG.
If until now China has not been able to create anything worthwhile in terms of strategic missile carriers (no matter what size), then it would be worth trying to solve the problem precisely at the expense of the MiG-31K, which are quite suitable for this role.
The fact that China needs such a missile carrier was said by many high-ranking representatives of both the party and the Ministry of Defense. And there is an opinion that it is the MiG-31 that is what is needed, because there is simply no other alternative in the modern aviation market.
And here another problem arises. The point is not even whether our leadership decides to sell such an aircraft to China if it asks to sell missile carriers.
The thing is different: will RAC MiG be able to build aircraft.
Today, let me remind you, RAC MiG is busy (since November 2014) with the modernization of the MiG-31 into the MiG-31BM and will be busy with this until 2023. Then everything. There are no orders, no prospects. A Chinese order would be very handy, in the event that missile carriers can really still be built in the RSK. After all, the last MiG-31 was assembled in 1994. Almost 30 years ago. Given the current state of RAC MiG, this will not be very surprising.
And in this case, RAC "MiG" will simply add to the list of enterprises that "did not write to the market" and something else will be produced at the production facilities, at best. At worst, enterprises will simply be closed, and there will be nothing in their place. As happened with the Lipetsk and Volgograd tractor plants, the Voronezh excavator plant, AZLK, ZIL and beyond. Market…
All in all, we don't have much time left to see how things actually happen. But something tells me that a miracle should not be expected. "MiG" will go down in history. But we have JSC Sukhoi Company, which already produces a fairly wide range of aircraft, from fighters to passenger liners. Perhaps, with the help of the remnants of RAC MiG employees, Sukhoi will be able to further resolve all issues of the development of Russian aviation caused by the death of the aviation companies Mikoyan and Gurevich, Ilyushin, Yakovlev.
And the MiG-31 can really become the swan song of the RAC "MiG", no matter how sad it may sound. Much in this matter depends on the Chinese, but without a miracle in the form of orders for RAC MiG, the issue of liquidation is not a matter of very long time.
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