Arctic Front. Regarding the movement of Russia to the north
Our country is historically the world leader in the development of Arctic wealth and the construction of the economy in high latitudes. Since then, when Arkhangelsk was the main port of our country, the role of the northern territories of Russia was crucial for the country's inclusion in world trade, at least in some form. Centuries later, the north has become much more important for us.
The key factors in the presence of people and the availability of infrastructure in the Arctic are the need for mining and export of mineral resources, the presence of irreplaceable industrial facilities in Norilsk in the region, the presence of population in the northern regions of the country and in its north-east, and military factors.
Consider all these factors separately.
From the Kola Peninsula to the Bering Strait stretches a long coastal "arc" of the territories supplied almost exclusively by sea transport during the Northern Delivery. Everything necessary for the life of the population is transported to the “other” side, and local products, usually minerals, are brought back, but in the case of Norilsk, alloys ready for industrial use are exported. Also of great importance for the economy is the development of gas fields of Yamal, a gas liquefaction plant, and oil production in the shallow Arctic waters. The economy, which grew up in the Arctic, is neither efficient nor self-sufficient, but the fact that the state is making great efforts for its development is absolutely correct and here is why.
As his evolutionary development of a person operates with greater and greater energy. Once it was the energy of burning wood, then coal, steam, fuel oil, an atom. And every time when people moved to a new level of energy use, opportunities that were previously beyond the limits became available to them. For example, in the nineteenth century, organizing life in an arctic village would be a feat. Now it is commonplace.
However, by the time when a person’s energy supply is sufficient for storming new frontiers and developing the wealth behind them, the experience of life at these stormed frontiers and the availability of infrastructure in developed areas that can be used are extremely useful.
Russia's expansion into the Arctic, which began many decades ago, back in the pre-revolutionary era, creates for us the infrastructure in the Arctic, and gives us the experience of living there, which is not available anywhere else. Sooner or later, technologies will allow to extract raw materials and fuel in the Arctic cold much easier and cheaper than we are doing now. And at this moment a huge “bonus” for our descendants (or maybe even for us — who knows) will be cities, ports, lighthouses, villages and factories, which have been connected somewhere or railways under construction, ice-class ships, including icebreakers like diesel and nuclear, and infrastructure for their maintenance, warehouses and airfields.
And now the Arctic expansion is already of serious economic importance. Alloys of Norilsk Nickel, Prirazlomnoy oil, Yamal liquefied gas - only the tip of the iceberg, "famous" by the press - the iceberg itself is much larger.
Just a small example.
This town (by our standards - the village) Utkyagvik. This is the largest settlement of the United States within the Arctic Circle.
And we have the biggest one - Murmansk, with a population that is a little below 300 000 people, with the airport, the seaport, which only recently had a huge increase in cargo turnover.
Yes, now the northern cities have a problem of population outflow. But they remain a guarantee that, if necessary, Russia will be able to use its part of the Arctic with minimal restrictions. There are jobs there, there is a demand for marine diesel engines, KAMAZ all-terrain vehicles, fuel, building materials, high-calorie food products, which have a significant effect on the economy of the country as a whole.
From a military point of view, the Arctic is an open area that is incredibly difficult to defend because of its length. It is through the North Pole and further south that the routes go along which in the case of a hypothetical war, American bombers will fly to finish off what remains after ballistic missiles. It is here that a potentially conflict zone is ripening, where the United States may try to "put in place" a daring opponent during a limited-scale military operation. From this point of view, it is extremely important to have a powerful military presence in the region, and not just a large one, but also properly organized. Powerful forces aviation they should not give the Americans even the slightest hope that they could even get a provocation, not to mention a successful military operation. The network of military bases and airfields should provide maneuver capabilities with forces and weapons throughout the Arctic theater of operations. The fleet must prevent the enemy from using the waters adjacent to Russian territorial waters for attacks by cruise missiles, actions against our submarines and sea lanes that are part of the Northern Sea Route. Well-equipped land and landing troops must be ready to very quickly push our defensive lines to the west, block and destroy enemy landings on our Arctic islands, and hold shore and airfields wherever they are needed.
For a long time, the press, with the filing of officials, tried to position the Arctic in the public mind as something that was “built” around the Northern Sea Route, and the NSR itself, almost as a competitor to the trade routes going through Suez. In fact, everything is somewhat wrong. The prospects for the SMP as an alternative to Suezu are well written in the article. “Northern Sea Route. World transport future or a grand projector? ”, the article is highly recommended reading. Let's say this: it is quite possible and necessary to “bite off” a small part of the cargo turnover at the southern routes, but the NSR will never be a competitor to the routes passing through the warm seas. Cargo turnover on it, however, continues to grow. And the reasons for this are that Russia is actively developing in the Arctic the extraction of minerals, primarily hydrocarbons, and their exports. And the cargo traffic associated with this process gives an increase in cargo turnover through the NSR, and at the same time shows which direction Russia needs to develop in this region.
It should be understood that in the foreseeable future no production in the Arctic will be profitable, but the mining of mineral resources may be on the verge of recoupment, even with a lot of benefits and budget benefits just above zero, it already has potential there. And this is the "reserve for the future", which was mentioned at the beginning of the article. And there are also jobs all over the country, solvent demand, support for ship repair and shipbuilding, albeit small, providing jobs and all the necessary local people who do not want to go “to the mainland”. Fortunately, there is a consensus among the authorities, business, and people, which means that large-scale infrastructure projects in the Arctic will continue to develop. And the figure in 80 million tons of annual cargo turnover in the SMP, once voiced by President Putin as a desired goal, although at times more than what is now, but not unreal. And we need to strive for it, at the expense of the internal resources of the Arctic territories, and not hopes to make a new Suez Canal from the NSR.
This, however, does not mean that you should not try to “bite off” part of the ship traffic in the summer, when the ice situation allows you to conduct merchant ships on the NSR for reasonable money. The government should consider the issue of creating a shipping company with state capital, similar to Sovcomflot, whose task it would be, acting on the verge of payback, to “get the maximum possible” in intercepting freight traffic. Even if she always acts with tax breaks and minimal profits, then why not? After all, it is at least jobs, first of all, some benefits for the owners of the infrastructure, the same ports, any demand. Why, in fact, such a company could not exist? Sovcomflot exists.
However, it is a matter of caution that an important bill requiring the export of hydrocarbons from the NSR only on vessels under the Russian flag did not become a federal law. In theory, the SMP is exactly the place where the government could dictate the rules. Of course, it is necessary to weigh everything and do without shock methods, carefully withdrawing the entire export cargo traffic under Russian jurisdiction, and imposing at least some fees on it. So far, however, this is not the case, the victory of the interests of shipowners is obvious. But this does not mean that it should go on forever.
It would be worthwhile to calculate the profitability in the northern latitudes of such an exotic business for the Arctic as the construction of data centers - in those regions where there are electrical capacities, such facilities will have a very good cooling cost compared to any competitors. It may even outweigh the more expensive capital construction and other problems that are evident when placed in the Arctic. Such a possibility at least someone should check.
Separately, it is necessary to invest in extreme tourism, which has considerable potential in the Arctic. In any case, Americans and Canadians even cruise liners in the Arctic go, and there is no reason why they could not walk with us.
It is not necessary to harbor illusions - the Arctic will not be Eldorado. There are huge logistical and climatic costs. But it can give us much more than it gives now, and we should take advantage of these opportunities.
However, we will be hindered, and we must prepare for this.
Neither the United States nor Canada will ever be able to achieve the same development in the Arctic, which Russia already now has. They do not have large cities, population and infrastructure there, but we have them. They have no relatively ice-free port inside the Arctic Circle, but we have one. They have essentially no economy in the Arctic, there is no mass organized mining, there are not so many ice-class vessels ... who carry fuel to Nome when the Americans disrupt their northern supply? Renda, tanker under the Russian flag. His no.
In the English-language Wikipedia there is even an article dedicated to this ship, it has such a meaning for them. And they will never create a rival for the Northern Sea Route from the Northwest Passage, if only because the Northern Sea Route leads from the Pacific region to Europe, and the FFP does not lead anywhere - literally. And if we add to this the unresolved status of his status between the USA and Canada, then it becomes even more obvious that there is no chance.
But all of the above does not prevent the Americans from sabotaging our development efforts in the Arctic. Back in the 2018 year, they planned a provocation with an icebreaker dispatched through the NSR without the required (and absolutely legal from the point of view of international law), and possibly, as planned by them in 60 and 70, with passage through the Russian territorial waters .
Then they were stopped by the fact that the only icebreaker, which by virtue of the thickness of the ice it overcomes, could be charged with such a provocation, the Polar Star is in such a terrifying state that it can break at any time. And then you have to turn to Russia for help, which would be a political catastrophe. Then, at the beginning of 2018, the Americans did not dare.
But today their new icebreaker construction program has already started. Under the head ship developed by Fincanteri, money has already been allocated, they are already being settled, a tender has already been held for the construction and its winner has already received the coveted contract, with an option for two more ships after the first one. If no state of emergency happens, the US Coast Guard will receive the first new icebreaker in 2024, and if there is no urgent need to move it to Antarctica, then the “freedom of navigation exercise” they want, as they call their provocations scheduled earlier, will be held in the same 2024 year. However, taking into account the millions of dollars allocated by the 15 congress for the repair of Polar Star, it is possible even earlier.
The plans of the Americans and their possibilities for building icebreakers and increasing their presence in the Arctic are detailed in article in "Independent Military Review" "America is bursting into the Arctic", and it is recommended for familiarization by all who are interested in this topic.
Now the construction of the leading icebreaker is already “in progress”, at the stage of ordering equipment and final design work, while the clouds are gathering over the next due to Donald Trump's intention to spend huge money on his “wall”, but even if Trump gets to redirect finances from ships and airplanes on the Mexican border, this is only a delay, and not more than a couple of years. More time they will not give us.
It is necessary to understand - Americans are not competitors to us in the peaceful development of the Arctic, but they may well spoil a lot. So, it is impossible to create a reliable shipping line where the US conducts military provocations - this will scare potential customers stronger than Somali pirates. Yes, and the United States will beat the provocation "for all the money" - for the western media machine, it will not be a problem to declare our territorial waters neutral and make the two-legged vegetables, of which the population of Western countries largely believe in it.
We must be prepared for these provocations, and not so much in terms of technology, as in terms of tactics, equipment and absolute, complete ruthlessness to the Americans. We will have to torture them with acoustic guns, sirens, blinding spotlights and lasers, crush the communications and radar with noises, flood their decks with tear gas, for many weeks of the “exercises” create for them absolutely unbearable conditions for life, if necessary, and, ultimately, firmly to drive into their heads the thought of how much they are not welcome here. The NSR is the place where any provocation by the United States should be stopped as hard as possible.
However, military force must be ready. From this point of view, the construction of two armed icebreakers of the 23550 project, previously criticized by many experts, unexpectedly turns out to be quite “right” and very timely.
It remains to be hoped that BOHR will not lose its 97P by that moment, since they will also be very useful in the circumstances - those that are armed.
Provocation of American icebreakers on the SMP is a matter of several years, and it should be taken very seriously.
In a recent article M. Klimov "Real threats in the Arctic: from under water and air" briefly listed purely military threats to Russia in the Arctic and how to stop them in advance. For any sane person, it is obvious that Klimov is basically right.
You can, of course, argue, as it is more profitable for Americans to storm the Boiler: paratroopers, with risks when disembarking but quick and safe delivery, or helicopter, with multiple refueling in the air, slow and sad troop transfer, but with disembarkation “like on a carpet ". Or maybe they simply mix it with cruise missiles and will not capture them at all. But this is particular.
The main thing is an extremely high threat from American submarines and aircraft. It is a fact. Currently hostile waters for our fleet start immediately after leaving the base. It can be firmly guaranteed - if a domestic submarine went on a campaign or on combat duty, the "hunter" of the American or British Navy is already nearby. And he surpasses our boat both in acoustic stealth and in the range of target detection, and, as Klimov also wrote, in torpedo weapons. Everything is not easy with aviation either. We do not have enough AWACS aircraft, nor tankers, we would like to bring the exercises closer to the combat situation, for example, there is not a single video with the training output of bombers and anti-submarine aircraft from under attack. Recommendations on how to get out of this situation are generally not a secret, and they were also mentioned - bringing our torpedo weapons and preparing their military-grade weapons to the level required by the situation, saturating the ammunition load of existing boats with anti-torpedoes, practicing their combat employment, restoring military presence at base in Gremikha, strengthening the stronghold on the island of Kotelny, relocation of the Bastion missile systems to the west, where they will have targets, the restoration of naval aviation.
About the fact that it is necessary to put in order the anti-mine forces, to increase the number of aircraft in the north, it’s also unnecessary to talk, as well as about the need to repair as quickly as possible and, if possible, modernize the anti-submarine ships too.
Progress towards this sensible side has begun, and some positive signals have recently begun to come from the submarine fleet - so far very shy ... There are some interesting work in naval aviation, although “enemies are not asleep” and they are trying to return our technological level to 70-ies, freezing progress in this area forever, that will be like death for us, but nothing is finished. We hold our fists for ours, this time the healthy forces must win.
Unfortunately, much of what should be done is not done. Thus, under the “veil” of hype around the mine ships of the 12700 project, “realistic” assessments of their combat capabilities (zero) and capabilities of anti-mine forces in general were “lost”.
The timing of the return to service of the aircraft carrier, which is necessary to protect the areas of deployment of SSBNs, is questionable. Necessary with the air group, on the alert which also has questions.
The situation with the repair and modernization of submarines is not clear.
In general, not everything is as good and rosy as many think, although it is fixable.
A plus of recent years is certainly the creation of infrastructure for troops in the Arctic. The value of this process is difficult to overestimate.
Movement to the north is a challenge facing our society. Dangerous and difficult. We took it and now we must go to the end. To enter, learn, derive profit, settle in inhospitable areas. Come back, in a sense. And we must understand that no one guaranteed to us that we will succeed, neither the world economy nor the enemies.
And we, of course, should win on this arctic front. But we must understand that victory will not come by itself, and that our enemies use any mistake in our actions in order to nullify the effect of our efforts, both in the civilian sphere and in the military. And we must be ready for this too.
We must maximize the economic potential of this region, create a military organization there that would really make us invulnerable, recognize and correct all the shortcomings in the Arctic, and leave our children to a developed region, starting from the resources they could move on.
Port of Dudinka, one of the leaders in cargo turnover growth at the NSR
Cold economy on the ice battlefield
The key factors in the presence of people and the availability of infrastructure in the Arctic are the need for mining and export of mineral resources, the presence of irreplaceable industrial facilities in Norilsk in the region, the presence of population in the northern regions of the country and in its north-east, and military factors.
Consider all these factors separately.
From the Kola Peninsula to the Bering Strait stretches a long coastal "arc" of the territories supplied almost exclusively by sea transport during the Northern Delivery. Everything necessary for the life of the population is transported to the “other” side, and local products, usually minerals, are brought back, but in the case of Norilsk, alloys ready for industrial use are exported. Also of great importance for the economy is the development of gas fields of Yamal, a gas liquefaction plant, and oil production in the shallow Arctic waters. The economy, which grew up in the Arctic, is neither efficient nor self-sufficient, but the fact that the state is making great efforts for its development is absolutely correct and here is why.
As his evolutionary development of a person operates with greater and greater energy. Once it was the energy of burning wood, then coal, steam, fuel oil, an atom. And every time when people moved to a new level of energy use, opportunities that were previously beyond the limits became available to them. For example, in the nineteenth century, organizing life in an arctic village would be a feat. Now it is commonplace.
However, by the time when a person’s energy supply is sufficient for storming new frontiers and developing the wealth behind them, the experience of life at these stormed frontiers and the availability of infrastructure in developed areas that can be used are extremely useful.
Russia's expansion into the Arctic, which began many decades ago, back in the pre-revolutionary era, creates for us the infrastructure in the Arctic, and gives us the experience of living there, which is not available anywhere else. Sooner or later, technologies will allow to extract raw materials and fuel in the Arctic cold much easier and cheaper than we are doing now. And at this moment a huge “bonus” for our descendants (or maybe even for us — who knows) will be cities, ports, lighthouses, villages and factories, which have been connected somewhere or railways under construction, ice-class ships, including icebreakers like diesel and nuclear, and infrastructure for their maintenance, warehouses and airfields.
And now the Arctic expansion is already of serious economic importance. Alloys of Norilsk Nickel, Prirazlomnoy oil, Yamal liquefied gas - only the tip of the iceberg, "famous" by the press - the iceberg itself is much larger.
Just a small example.
This town (by our standards - the village) Utkyagvik. This is the largest settlement of the United States within the Arctic Circle.
Utkiagvik
And we have the biggest one - Murmansk, with a population that is a little below 300 000 people, with the airport, the seaport, which only recently had a huge increase in cargo turnover.
Murmansk
Yes, now the northern cities have a problem of population outflow. But they remain a guarantee that, if necessary, Russia will be able to use its part of the Arctic with minimal restrictions. There are jobs there, there is a demand for marine diesel engines, KAMAZ all-terrain vehicles, fuel, building materials, high-calorie food products, which have a significant effect on the economy of the country as a whole.
From a military point of view, the Arctic is an open area that is incredibly difficult to defend because of its length. It is through the North Pole and further south that the routes go along which in the case of a hypothetical war, American bombers will fly to finish off what remains after ballistic missiles. It is here that a potentially conflict zone is ripening, where the United States may try to "put in place" a daring opponent during a limited-scale military operation. From this point of view, it is extremely important to have a powerful military presence in the region, and not just a large one, but also properly organized. Powerful forces aviation they should not give the Americans even the slightest hope that they could even get a provocation, not to mention a successful military operation. The network of military bases and airfields should provide maneuver capabilities with forces and weapons throughout the Arctic theater of operations. The fleet must prevent the enemy from using the waters adjacent to Russian territorial waters for attacks by cruise missiles, actions against our submarines and sea lanes that are part of the Northern Sea Route. Well-equipped land and landing troops must be ready to very quickly push our defensive lines to the west, block and destroy enemy landings on our Arctic islands, and hold shore and airfields wherever they are needed.
Economic outlook
For a long time, the press, with the filing of officials, tried to position the Arctic in the public mind as something that was “built” around the Northern Sea Route, and the NSR itself, almost as a competitor to the trade routes going through Suez. In fact, everything is somewhat wrong. The prospects for the SMP as an alternative to Suezu are well written in the article. “Northern Sea Route. World transport future or a grand projector? ”, the article is highly recommended reading. Let's say this: it is quite possible and necessary to “bite off” a small part of the cargo turnover at the southern routes, but the NSR will never be a competitor to the routes passing through the warm seas. Cargo turnover on it, however, continues to grow. And the reasons for this are that Russia is actively developing in the Arctic the extraction of minerals, primarily hydrocarbons, and their exports. And the cargo traffic associated with this process gives an increase in cargo turnover through the NSR, and at the same time shows which direction Russia needs to develop in this region.
It should be understood that in the foreseeable future no production in the Arctic will be profitable, but the mining of mineral resources may be on the verge of recoupment, even with a lot of benefits and budget benefits just above zero, it already has potential there. And this is the "reserve for the future", which was mentioned at the beginning of the article. And there are also jobs all over the country, solvent demand, support for ship repair and shipbuilding, albeit small, providing jobs and all the necessary local people who do not want to go “to the mainland”. Fortunately, there is a consensus among the authorities, business, and people, which means that large-scale infrastructure projects in the Arctic will continue to develop. And the figure in 80 million tons of annual cargo turnover in the SMP, once voiced by President Putin as a desired goal, although at times more than what is now, but not unreal. And we need to strive for it, at the expense of the internal resources of the Arctic territories, and not hopes to make a new Suez Canal from the NSR.
This, however, does not mean that you should not try to “bite off” part of the ship traffic in the summer, when the ice situation allows you to conduct merchant ships on the NSR for reasonable money. The government should consider the issue of creating a shipping company with state capital, similar to Sovcomflot, whose task it would be, acting on the verge of payback, to “get the maximum possible” in intercepting freight traffic. Even if she always acts with tax breaks and minimal profits, then why not? After all, it is at least jobs, first of all, some benefits for the owners of the infrastructure, the same ports, any demand. Why, in fact, such a company could not exist? Sovcomflot exists.
However, it is a matter of caution that an important bill requiring the export of hydrocarbons from the NSR only on vessels under the Russian flag did not become a federal law. In theory, the SMP is exactly the place where the government could dictate the rules. Of course, it is necessary to weigh everything and do without shock methods, carefully withdrawing the entire export cargo traffic under Russian jurisdiction, and imposing at least some fees on it. So far, however, this is not the case, the victory of the interests of shipowners is obvious. But this does not mean that it should go on forever.
It would be worthwhile to calculate the profitability in the northern latitudes of such an exotic business for the Arctic as the construction of data centers - in those regions where there are electrical capacities, such facilities will have a very good cooling cost compared to any competitors. It may even outweigh the more expensive capital construction and other problems that are evident when placed in the Arctic. Such a possibility at least someone should check.
Separately, it is necessary to invest in extreme tourism, which has considerable potential in the Arctic. In any case, Americans and Canadians even cruise liners in the Arctic go, and there is no reason why they could not walk with us.
It is not necessary to harbor illusions - the Arctic will not be Eldorado. There are huge logistical and climatic costs. But it can give us much more than it gives now, and we should take advantage of these opportunities.
However, we will be hindered, and we must prepare for this.
Enemy counteraction
Neither the United States nor Canada will ever be able to achieve the same development in the Arctic, which Russia already now has. They do not have large cities, population and infrastructure there, but we have them. They have no relatively ice-free port inside the Arctic Circle, but we have one. They have essentially no economy in the Arctic, there is no mass organized mining, there are not so many ice-class vessels ... who carry fuel to Nome when the Americans disrupt their northern supply? Renda, tanker under the Russian flag. His no.
Coast Guard icebreaker Healy escorts Renda tanker to Alaska
In the English-language Wikipedia there is even an article dedicated to this ship, it has such a meaning for them. And they will never create a rival for the Northern Sea Route from the Northwest Passage, if only because the Northern Sea Route leads from the Pacific region to Europe, and the FFP does not lead anywhere - literally. And if we add to this the unresolved status of his status between the USA and Canada, then it becomes even more obvious that there is no chance.
But all of the above does not prevent the Americans from sabotaging our development efforts in the Arctic. Back in the 2018 year, they planned a provocation with an icebreaker dispatched through the NSR without the required (and absolutely legal from the point of view of international law), and possibly, as planned by them in 60 and 70, with passage through the Russian territorial waters .
Then they were stopped by the fact that the only icebreaker, which by virtue of the thickness of the ice it overcomes, could be charged with such a provocation, the Polar Star is in such a terrifying state that it can break at any time. And then you have to turn to Russia for help, which would be a political catastrophe. Then, at the beginning of 2018, the Americans did not dare.
But today their new icebreaker construction program has already started. Under the head ship developed by Fincanteri, money has already been allocated, they are already being settled, a tender has already been held for the construction and its winner has already received the coveted contract, with an option for two more ships after the first one. If no state of emergency happens, the US Coast Guard will receive the first new icebreaker in 2024, and if there is no urgent need to move it to Antarctica, then the “freedom of navigation exercise” they want, as they call their provocations scheduled earlier, will be held in the same 2024 year. However, taking into account the millions of dollars allocated by the 15 congress for the repair of Polar Star, it is possible even earlier.
New American icebreakers will be like this
The plans of the Americans and their possibilities for building icebreakers and increasing their presence in the Arctic are detailed in article in "Independent Military Review" "America is bursting into the Arctic", and it is recommended for familiarization by all who are interested in this topic.
Now the construction of the leading icebreaker is already “in progress”, at the stage of ordering equipment and final design work, while the clouds are gathering over the next due to Donald Trump's intention to spend huge money on his “wall”, but even if Trump gets to redirect finances from ships and airplanes on the Mexican border, this is only a delay, and not more than a couple of years. More time they will not give us.
It is necessary to understand - Americans are not competitors to us in the peaceful development of the Arctic, but they may well spoil a lot. So, it is impossible to create a reliable shipping line where the US conducts military provocations - this will scare potential customers stronger than Somali pirates. Yes, and the United States will beat the provocation "for all the money" - for the western media machine, it will not be a problem to declare our territorial waters neutral and make the two-legged vegetables, of which the population of Western countries largely believe in it.
We must be prepared for these provocations, and not so much in terms of technology, as in terms of tactics, equipment and absolute, complete ruthlessness to the Americans. We will have to torture them with acoustic guns, sirens, blinding spotlights and lasers, crush the communications and radar with noises, flood their decks with tear gas, for many weeks of the “exercises” create for them absolutely unbearable conditions for life, if necessary, and, ultimately, firmly to drive into their heads the thought of how much they are not welcome here. The NSR is the place where any provocation by the United States should be stopped as hard as possible.
However, military force must be ready. From this point of view, the construction of two armed icebreakers of the 23550 project, previously criticized by many experts, unexpectedly turns out to be quite “right” and very timely.
Icebreaker patrol pr 23550
It remains to be hoped that BOHR will not lose its 97P by that moment, since they will also be very useful in the circumstances - those that are armed.
Provocation of American icebreakers on the SMP is a matter of several years, and it should be taken very seriously.
PSKR pr. 97P. Icebreaker patrol
Military aspect
In a recent article M. Klimov "Real threats in the Arctic: from under water and air" briefly listed purely military threats to Russia in the Arctic and how to stop them in advance. For any sane person, it is obvious that Klimov is basically right.
You can, of course, argue, as it is more profitable for Americans to storm the Boiler: paratroopers, with risks when disembarking but quick and safe delivery, or helicopter, with multiple refueling in the air, slow and sad troop transfer, but with disembarkation “like on a carpet ". Or maybe they simply mix it with cruise missiles and will not capture them at all. But this is particular.
The main thing is an extremely high threat from American submarines and aircraft. It is a fact. Currently hostile waters for our fleet start immediately after leaving the base. It can be firmly guaranteed - if a domestic submarine went on a campaign or on combat duty, the "hunter" of the American or British Navy is already nearby. And he surpasses our boat both in acoustic stealth and in the range of target detection, and, as Klimov also wrote, in torpedo weapons. Everything is not easy with aviation either. We do not have enough AWACS aircraft, nor tankers, we would like to bring the exercises closer to the combat situation, for example, there is not a single video with the training output of bombers and anti-submarine aircraft from under attack. Recommendations on how to get out of this situation are generally not a secret, and they were also mentioned - bringing our torpedo weapons and preparing their military-grade weapons to the level required by the situation, saturating the ammunition load of existing boats with anti-torpedoes, practicing their combat employment, restoring military presence at base in Gremikha, strengthening the stronghold on the island of Kotelny, relocation of the Bastion missile systems to the west, where they will have targets, the restoration of naval aviation.
About the fact that it is necessary to put in order the anti-mine forces, to increase the number of aircraft in the north, it’s also unnecessary to talk, as well as about the need to repair as quickly as possible and, if possible, modernize the anti-submarine ships too.
Progress towards this sensible side has begun, and some positive signals have recently begun to come from the submarine fleet - so far very shy ... There are some interesting work in naval aviation, although “enemies are not asleep” and they are trying to return our technological level to 70-ies, freezing progress in this area forever, that will be like death for us, but nothing is finished. We hold our fists for ours, this time the healthy forces must win.
Unfortunately, much of what should be done is not done. Thus, under the “veil” of hype around the mine ships of the 12700 project, “realistic” assessments of their combat capabilities (zero) and capabilities of anti-mine forces in general were “lost”.
The timing of the return to service of the aircraft carrier, which is necessary to protect the areas of deployment of SSBNs, is questionable. Necessary with the air group, on the alert which also has questions.
The situation with the repair and modernization of submarines is not clear.
In the Navy, everything is not so rosy, it seems
In general, not everything is as good and rosy as many think, although it is fixable.
A plus of recent years is certainly the creation of infrastructure for troops in the Arctic. The value of this process is difficult to overestimate.
Our bases in the Arctic are represented by the Anglo-Saxons. Legend from above above the figure, from left to right: headquarters, naval bases, VKS bases, joint bases, rescue centers
Conclusion
Movement to the north is a challenge facing our society. Dangerous and difficult. We took it and now we must go to the end. To enter, learn, derive profit, settle in inhospitable areas. Come back, in a sense. And we must understand that no one guaranteed to us that we will succeed, neither the world economy nor the enemies.
And we, of course, should win on this arctic front. But we must understand that victory will not come by itself, and that our enemies use any mistake in our actions in order to nullify the effect of our efforts, both in the civilian sphere and in the military. And we must be ready for this too.
We must maximize the economic potential of this region, create a military organization there that would really make us invulnerable, recognize and correct all the shortcomings in the Arctic, and leave our children to a developed region, starting from the resources they could move on.
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