Plans of the Ukrainian aviation industry look like science fiction
The new leadership of the legendary Ukrainian aviation enterprise "Antonov" dreams of reaching the level of production of the USSR - 200 aircraft per year, and in cooperation with the West. Such statements look like sheer fiction, but Ukraine has few real benefits from joint projects with Europe. The next reform of the Ukrainian aviation industry will most likely end with its final liquidation.The leadership of the Ukrainian aircraft concern Antonov at the Le Bourget air show announced its ambitious plans. Their essence boils down to the fact that instead of decreasing historical cooperation with Russia (due to Kiev’s ban on military-technical cooperation with a neighbor) Antonov is trying to survive through cooperation with other countries, and not only European ones.
“The President and the Government of Ukraine determined aviation the sector as strategic for security and the state’s economy, ”said Roman Romanov, new general director of Ukroboronprom Group of Companies (which includes Antonov Group of Companies). The main goal is to increase the annual production of aircraft to 50 units per year, and "then reach the USSR output level of 200 aircraft per year," Romanov said very seriously.
Given that in the period from 2000 to 2013, the year in Ukraine was made annually from zero to six aircraft, the plan to reach the level of 50 aircraft per year already looks extremely ambitious. As for the Soviet indicators, they are completely from the category of fiction.
“To reach the capacity of the Soviet years, that is, about 200 boards per year, the company needs at least a similar infrastructure, power and the ability to obtain components and components under conditions that allow them to win at a price with competitors. It is difficult even with the support of European and American manufacturers. And given the high level of political instability in the country, foreign investment is unlikely to flow in the future over the coming years, ”says Dmitry Lepeshkin from QB Finance.
But the cooperation of Ukraine and Russia after the collapse of the USSR was based on the fact that Ukraine has a strong scientific background, developers and engines, and Russia has production facilities, money and demand.
The following words of the protégé of the new government sounded no less surprising: “Ukrainian citizens will fly in Ukrainian-made aircraft”. The plans are even more fantastic, given that Ukraine simply does not have the full line of civil aircraft needed for modern airlines.
Romanov declares that the Antonov State Enterprise today has powerful intellectual, material and managerial capabilities in order to become the world leader in the field of aircraft manufacturing. There are no doubts about the intellectual potential of the Ukrainian aviation industry, but with the material and managerial capabilities the top manager obviously got excited. Ukraine had to abandon Russian orders, and a lot of money was not found in the budget: the country itself was in debt, and it would take even a decade to get out of the crisis and restore the financial system.
The announced new projects of Antonov, designed to be implemented without cooperation with the Russian aviation industry, look no less fantastic or threaten the loss of intellectual property and technology.
First, Antonov announced the development of the An-132 aircraft project, which so far exists only on paper. In fact, it will be a modernized An-32, created in Soviet times. This project is amazing because it is not about creating production in Ukraine, but actually about selling technology abroad, and not even to Europe, but to the Middle East.
At Le Bourget, the Antonov company stated with pride that it had reached an agreement with Saudi Arabia and promised to build a plant for the production of this aircraft in the Arab territory. German specialists will provide it with technologies, Ukraine will oversee the construction, and mainly local will build. According to the laws of Saudi Arabia, their employees in such a scheme should be at least 70%.
The essence of the deal: the King Abdulaziz Science and Technology Center (KACST) and the local investment company Taqnia Aeronautics, together with Antonov, will refine the existing model of the An-32 aircraft. In fact, the Saudis will give money to Ukrainian engineers bring the characteristics of the aircraft to mind in terms of payload, flight range and take-off parameters, as well as reduced fuel consumption by 30%. This will be the new model An-132. At the same time, Saudi Arabia will receive intellectual property rights on the aircraft along with its drawings.
The Saudis want to lay the first stone of the plant already in the 2016 year, and in 2017 the new An-132 should be shown in Le Bourget already in the metal.
The Saudis are attracted by the fact that this transport aircraft can land in sand dunes, fly in conditions of dust storms and in hot weather up to 50 degrees, while it is distinguished by its practicality and low cost. And there is a demand for such an aircraft on the global aviation market. After all, such an aircraft (with its refinement) is irreplaceable for military aviation, for cargo transportation, and for emergency services.
Earlier it was said that Saudi Arabia is ready to invest 3 billion dollars in this project. Here are just pragmatic Arabs are not going to invest them in Ukrainian production, but Kiev for some reason looks at it through his fingers and even rejoices.
Why does Antonov and Ukraine need to create an aircraft industry in a foreign country, and not to revive it - at home? “If production is organized in another country, taxes will be paid in Saudi Arabia, jobs will be created in Saudi Arabia, and Antonov will most likely receive only royalties, royalties and fulfill orders for a certain percentage of nodes “, - says Dmitry Lepeshkin from QB Finance to the VIEW newspaper. Possible payments from the Saudis for each aircraft sold is clearly not the scale of profit that Ukraine could have.
Thus, the voiced project itself looks promising, only here is the budget of Ukraine, which means that ordinary Ukrainians will receive bits from it.
Another project that proudly unveiled Ukroboronprom at Le Bourget is the An-188 transport, which is supposed to transport cargo up to 40 tons. In fact, it is a reworked An-70 with a new engine. Several options are considered as an engine: a Ukrainian turbojet (which is also proposed to be used on An-178) or so far only developed AI-28 (both produced by Motor-Sich). As an option, the use of Western-made engines is also proposed. An-188 equipment and systems must be "Ukrainian and Western production."
And finally, "Antonov" is going to develop a "westernized" modification of the An-178, equipping it with fully Western equipment and a General Electric CF34-10 or Pratt & Whitney PW1500 series engine. The goal of westernization is to replace Russian components with European ones. Kiev is going to do this with the help of Poland. Recently, at the Ukrainian-Polish forum, Antonov announced that, together with Warsaw, it would Westernize the entire An family and also organize joint production of aircraft based on the An models.
However, apart from discussions, real agreements have not yet reached - and are unlikely to reach. “Firstly, Poland is not an aircraft-building power that could help Ukraine in any way. Ukraine is one hundred goals higher; in fact, it is an aircraft-building power. And all that was being built in Poland were Russian licenses thanks to Soviet history. Nothing independent was created there, and such an aviation school as in Ukraine is not there, ”says Roman Gusarov, editor of the Avia.ru portal. “All they could help Ukraine with is money, if Poland had it. But she would have to make ends meet, ”said the aviation expert.
And the project of the Westernization of the An aircraft means that it has to go the same way, difficult and long way, which Sukhoi SuperJet 100 passed in due time. Because to replace Russian components and assemblies with European ones means to practically create an aircraft from scratch, which will still need to be certified.
For example: only tests and certification of the Russian SSJ 100 aircraft took four years (from 2008 to 2011 years). Investments in this project from the start of development to a commercial flight in 2011 are estimated at 7 billion dollars, almost half of which was provided by the state. Kiev has no such money, the potential partner, Poland, also. About others who want to invest in the Ukrainian "Antonov" and in the Westernization of the family "An" - can not hear anything.
“If we talk about the production of civilian jet liners, then the position of Antonov is not as stable as in the market of turboprop aircraft. The main customer today is Russia, before which Antonov has already completed a significant part of orders. Antonov will be extremely hard on the world market, where European Airbus and American Boeing dominate.
Even with the support from Europe and the United States, Antonov does not shine from these titans a significant market share, Dmitry Lepeshkin is sure. At the same time, Europe and the United States do not show a desire to help the Ukrainian aircraft industry.
And the transfer of aircraft to European components is again extremely disadvantageous to Ukraine itself. “If the main components and even the engines are of foreign production, then, in essence, this is a large-unit assembly, and not a full-fledged production,” the expert notes. Not to mention that the increase in the share of imports will make the cost of production in Ukraine high, and the final product will lose its competitiveness. Meanwhile, with the financial support of Antonov, it is up to me to establish the production of a full cycle of aircraft at our own facilities with a minimum share of imports, Lepeshkin notes.
However, all announced deals pursue exactly the opposite goals. And this means only one thing - they are extremely disadvantageous to the country. Kiev literally sells the competence of Ukraine as one of the aircraft manufacturing powers thanks to the legendary designer Antonov. In the end, she just lose this title.
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