Park military and farmers
Asia becomes the main buyer of UAVs, China - the largest producer
Unmanned aerial vehicles are of particular interest due to the possibility of placing weapons on them and using some platforms to destroy militants. The rapid spread of compact drones reduces the costs and problems of bringing them to the market, which provides opportunities for a wider application of such equipment by private companies, individuals and countries with limited financial resources.
Combat drone market aviation systems (BAS) has been fueled by US purchases for more than a decade to fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now the sector is developing in the direction of marine drones.
The largest buyers of UAS in the coming decade will be the armed forces of China. According to the forecast of the analytical agency Forcast International (Forecast International), the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) will account for more than half of the market for UAVs in value terms.
China seeks to catch up with and even surpass the United States in unmanned technology, creating analogues of the MQ-1 Predator from General Atomics (General Atomics), the high-rise RQ-4 Global Hawk of the Northrop Grumman ( Northrop Grumman) and even the experimental X-47B UAV. It is not surprising that Beijing should become the largest buyer right now, when the US military suspended purchases in order to optimize and regulate the fleet of accumulated drones acquired for operational needs.
"Neural" weapon
Europe, meanwhile, continues to try to jointly develop, produce and apply UAS. In May, Airbus, Airbus, Dassault, and Alenia Aermacchi, 2014, announced plans to create a European medium-high-altitude long-endurance MAS (Medium-altitude long-endurance), which will hit the market by 2020. This step was a response to the large-scale development of the MALE system, approved by the countries that are members of the European Defense Agency (EDA). Results are expected by 2016.
Meanwhile, in November, France and the United Kingdom began a two-year preliminary assessment of the requirements for the future combat aircraft system FCAS (Future Combat Air System). At this stage of research, BAE Systems (BAE Systems) and Dassault received a joint contract worth 160 million euros and additional national funding from each of the parties in the amount of 100 million euros to cover the costs of developing the concept of operational combat UAV, which will be received into service in the 2030's. This provides the basis for creating a demonstrator that will make the first flight at the start of the 2020-x.
The FCAS demonstration will be created on the basis of the Neuron UAV, developed by a group of companies under the leadership of Dassault, and the only British UAV Taranis from BAE Systems. Flight tests of the Taranis apparatus, confirming its inconspicuous nature, were carried out at the Woomera test site in Australia. Further flights are scheduled for this year. Upon completion of the test, “Neuron” in France and Italy to determine its effective scattering surface, the UAV should go to Sweden for testing on the use of aviation weapons.
Expected demand
According to Forecast International, the volume of the UAS military market for reconnaissance and shock missions will be about 72,7 billion dollars in the next ten-year period (2015 – 2024). Of this amount, 40,8 billion will consist of contracts for the production of UAS, 28 billion dollars - orders for experimental design and two to four billion - payment for service. Production costs will be shared between apparatuses, ground control stations and payloads in the ratio of 18,1 billion, 7,1 billion and 15,6 billion dollars, respectively.
The PRC is estimated that in the coming years 10 will spend a billion dollars on UAS 15,8 purchases. Chinese companies are already exporting a number of unmanned systems. According to media reports, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Uzbekistan are acquiring Predator class drones in the Middle Kingdom. But this is not expected to have a significant impact on the international market, since most of the Chinese UAS will be directed to its Armed Forces and law enforcement agencies.
India, a regional rival of China, is increasing the budget for the acquisition of UAVs, which still remains significantly lower than that of Beijing. A significant player in the Asian market seeks to become South Korea, which is developing a series of UAVs, including combat ones. The Japanese army is slow in adopting the UAV, nevertheless it plans to acquire three Global Hawk. In general, Asia will become the largest UAS customer over the next decade, spending 20,5 a billion dollars for these purposes - 50 percent of the total market. The annual production of such equipment in the region for the specified period will triple, reaching 2,9 billion dollars.
North American, European and Israeli companies will continue to dominate the BAS market in terms of receiving orders, both domestic and foreign. According to forecasts, the United States, operating the world's largest fleet of UAVs, will spend up to 2024 on the purchase of a BNS 11,9 billion dollars - by 25 percent less than China.
Market offers
Northrop Grumman is a top player in the UAV market, including in the United States. Orders from the US Air Force to the Global Hawk high-altitude UAV with a long HALE type flight (high-altitude, long-endurance) will probably be complemented by export deliveries. In addition to the Japanese bid for the three RQ-4Bs, Australia is aware that Australia plans to purchase up to seven MQ-4C Triton (Triton). Northrop's UAS sales, including the Fire Scout unmanned helicopters MQ-8, will amount to seven billion dollars before the 2024 year, which corresponds to a share in 19,6 percent among the major global manufacturers of unmanned systems.
General Atomics occupies the second position after Northrop in terms of sales volumes of its UAS in the coming decade with an 3,05 billion dollar (9,7%) indicator. Orders for the Predator / Reaper family of UAVs have provided the company with market leadership for many years; it remains the leading supplier in the largest BALE sector of the MALE type. But since the US market is shrinking, and arms control treaties impede export shipments, there may be reshuffles in the rankings.
Now General Atomics and other companies are counting on the delivery of a new generation of systems. A few years ago, the US Air Force postponed funding for the development of UAS to replace the Predator / Reaper, while at the same time they continue to investigate the requirements for high-altitude systems capable of operating in contested airspace. At present, only the high-altitude RQ-170 BAS from Lockheed Martin and not approved by Northrop RQ-180 are intended to penetrate enemy airspace.
Among other leading world manufacturers of UAVs in 2015 – 2024 there are Chinese Avic Corporation (Avic) with 38,7 percent and American AAI with Shadow (1,9%). The remaining manufacturers of UAVs account for 27,5 percent.
Meanwhile, the US Navy has postponed purchases of the UCLASS carrier-based unmanned reconnaissance and strike system (Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike) amid debates about how much its combat capability can be ensured while blocking the enemy’s location. Boeing, General Atomiks, Lockheed, and Northrop received funding to develop a preliminary concept for UCLASS, awaiting a tender that did not take place in the 2014 year, as planned.
Unmanned ethics
The growing world park of UAS meanwhile initiates disputes over the legal and ethical standards of the use of drones. Among the most discussed questions are: can a blow with a UAV be justified as self-defense, is this a proportional response to the actions of the other side? These and related problems are not only investigated by the legal departments of the Ministries of Defense and Justice, but also arouse wide discussions among specialists and the interested public. There are questions about the use of force in a broader sense. For example, can UAS reduce the costs of waging war or facilitate intervention, is it possible to increase the number of deployed UAS in connection with the alleged protection of troops and the ability of drones to take a long time. This applies in particular to intelligence platforms.
The growth of the UAS market makes it necessary to solve a number of practical tasks. For example, how to integrate the increasing number of used platforms into national and international airspace. So far, the vast majority of UAVs have been used for reconnaissance, observation and data collection in the unarrooned sky. Calculations of the effectiveness of unmanned systems can change dramatically if the UAVs enter the contested airspace and interfere with the active action of the air defense. Increasing the autonomy of UAS only sharpens controversy and debate.
Wings health resort
As for civilian applications, thousands of small UAS are already flying in the interests of commercial users. The number of amateurs operating such systems is constantly growing. Modern battery powered multicopters are stable platforms for easy-to-use high-resolution cameras that can be used in the interests of realtors, directors and paparazzi.
The three main suppliers of such BAS include Chinese DJI, French Parrot (Parrot), American 3D Robotics (3D Robotics - 3DR). According to DJI, she sends weekly up to 10 thousands of such systems to the United States during the holiday season. 3DR, according to available information, sold 30 thousands of systems by the middle of 2014. And the company “Parrot”, which has supplied customers with half a million AR drones since its entry into the market in 2010, claims that its sales have tripled in 2014 year in relation to 2013 and will increase in the same year to 2015 year.
If the estimates of sales of "amateur" drones are correct, the volume of their release this year could exceed a million. The cost of such UAVs ranges from 40 to 850 dollars, while models with advanced features are sold at a price of 2300 – 3600 dollars. Cheaper systems are in high demand, and the volume of their supplies may increase in some year, and the next sharply. Sales of “amateur” UAS annually form a niche in 150 – 800 million dollars.
In order to grow other segments of the UAS civilian market, they must be integrated into controlled airspace. This requires much more time than expected, due to various problems - from air traffic safety to the inviolability of private property. The Federal Aviation Administration of the United States (FAA) (Federal Aviation Administration) predicts the release of a commercial UAS 7500 over the next five years instead of the previously expected 10 000.
The most promising area of application for civilian UAS in the short term is agriculture. More 2300 unmanned systems are already being used to spray pesticides and fertilizers in rice fields in Asia. In Japan, they do up to 90 percent of such work. The same, and possibly more voluminous, will be the American market for agricultural drones. By some estimates, 80 percent of future UAS commercial users are farmers.
Among other potential applications of civilian UAS are inspection of pipelines and power lines. The length of the US oil and gas pipelines exceeds 643 700 kilometers. For control, carried out at least six times a year, manned aircraft are in the air for more than 12 million hours. UAS could start inspection raids in 2017 – 2018. The flight of the UAV, according to calculations, will exceed six million hours by the year of 2025.
According to Forecast International, the market for civil and commercial BAS will grow rather slowly, with the exception of amateur devices.
Unmanned aerial vehicles are of particular interest due to the possibility of placing weapons on them and using some platforms to destroy militants. The rapid spread of compact drones reduces the costs and problems of bringing them to the market, which provides opportunities for a wider application of such equipment by private companies, individuals and countries with limited financial resources.
Combat drone market aviation systems (BAS) has been fueled by US purchases for more than a decade to fight the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan. Now the sector is developing in the direction of marine drones.
The largest buyers of UAS in the coming decade will be the armed forces of China. According to the forecast of the analytical agency Forcast International (Forecast International), the People’s Liberation Army of China (PLA) will account for more than half of the market for UAVs in value terms.
China seeks to catch up with and even surpass the United States in unmanned technology, creating analogues of the MQ-1 Predator from General Atomics (General Atomics), the high-rise RQ-4 Global Hawk of the Northrop Grumman ( Northrop Grumman) and even the experimental X-47B UAV. It is not surprising that Beijing should become the largest buyer right now, when the US military suspended purchases in order to optimize and regulate the fleet of accumulated drones acquired for operational needs.
"Neural" weapon
Europe, meanwhile, continues to try to jointly develop, produce and apply UAS. In May, Airbus, Airbus, Dassault, and Alenia Aermacchi, 2014, announced plans to create a European medium-high-altitude long-endurance MAS (Medium-altitude long-endurance), which will hit the market by 2020. This step was a response to the large-scale development of the MALE system, approved by the countries that are members of the European Defense Agency (EDA). Results are expected by 2016.
Meanwhile, in November, France and the United Kingdom began a two-year preliminary assessment of the requirements for the future combat aircraft system FCAS (Future Combat Air System). At this stage of research, BAE Systems (BAE Systems) and Dassault received a joint contract worth 160 million euros and additional national funding from each of the parties in the amount of 100 million euros to cover the costs of developing the concept of operational combat UAV, which will be received into service in the 2030's. This provides the basis for creating a demonstrator that will make the first flight at the start of the 2020-x.The FCAS demonstration will be created on the basis of the Neuron UAV, developed by a group of companies under the leadership of Dassault, and the only British UAV Taranis from BAE Systems. Flight tests of the Taranis apparatus, confirming its inconspicuous nature, were carried out at the Woomera test site in Australia. Further flights are scheduled for this year. Upon completion of the test, “Neuron” in France and Italy to determine its effective scattering surface, the UAV should go to Sweden for testing on the use of aviation weapons.
Expected demand
According to Forecast International, the volume of the UAS military market for reconnaissance and shock missions will be about 72,7 billion dollars in the next ten-year period (2015 – 2024). Of this amount, 40,8 billion will consist of contracts for the production of UAS, 28 billion dollars - orders for experimental design and two to four billion - payment for service. Production costs will be shared between apparatuses, ground control stations and payloads in the ratio of 18,1 billion, 7,1 billion and 15,6 billion dollars, respectively.
The PRC is estimated that in the coming years 10 will spend a billion dollars on UAS 15,8 purchases. Chinese companies are already exporting a number of unmanned systems. According to media reports, Saudi Arabia, the UAE and Uzbekistan are acquiring Predator class drones in the Middle Kingdom. But this is not expected to have a significant impact on the international market, since most of the Chinese UAS will be directed to its Armed Forces and law enforcement agencies.India, a regional rival of China, is increasing the budget for the acquisition of UAVs, which still remains significantly lower than that of Beijing. A significant player in the Asian market seeks to become South Korea, which is developing a series of UAVs, including combat ones. The Japanese army is slow in adopting the UAV, nevertheless it plans to acquire three Global Hawk. In general, Asia will become the largest UAS customer over the next decade, spending 20,5 a billion dollars for these purposes - 50 percent of the total market. The annual production of such equipment in the region for the specified period will triple, reaching 2,9 billion dollars.
North American, European and Israeli companies will continue to dominate the BAS market in terms of receiving orders, both domestic and foreign. According to forecasts, the United States, operating the world's largest fleet of UAVs, will spend up to 2024 on the purchase of a BNS 11,9 billion dollars - by 25 percent less than China.
Market offers
Northrop Grumman is a top player in the UAV market, including in the United States. Orders from the US Air Force to the Global Hawk high-altitude UAV with a long HALE type flight (high-altitude, long-endurance) will probably be complemented by export deliveries. In addition to the Japanese bid for the three RQ-4Bs, Australia is aware that Australia plans to purchase up to seven MQ-4C Triton (Triton). Northrop's UAS sales, including the Fire Scout unmanned helicopters MQ-8, will amount to seven billion dollars before the 2024 year, which corresponds to a share in 19,6 percent among the major global manufacturers of unmanned systems.
General Atomics occupies the second position after Northrop in terms of sales volumes of its UAS in the coming decade with an 3,05 billion dollar (9,7%) indicator. Orders for the Predator / Reaper family of UAVs have provided the company with market leadership for many years; it remains the leading supplier in the largest BALE sector of the MALE type. But since the US market is shrinking, and arms control treaties impede export shipments, there may be reshuffles in the rankings.Now General Atomics and other companies are counting on the delivery of a new generation of systems. A few years ago, the US Air Force postponed funding for the development of UAS to replace the Predator / Reaper, while at the same time they continue to investigate the requirements for high-altitude systems capable of operating in contested airspace. At present, only the high-altitude RQ-170 BAS from Lockheed Martin and not approved by Northrop RQ-180 are intended to penetrate enemy airspace.
Among other leading world manufacturers of UAVs in 2015 – 2024 there are Chinese Avic Corporation (Avic) with 38,7 percent and American AAI with Shadow (1,9%). The remaining manufacturers of UAVs account for 27,5 percent.
Meanwhile, the US Navy has postponed purchases of the UCLASS carrier-based unmanned reconnaissance and strike system (Unmanned Carrier-Launched Airborne Surveillance and Strike) amid debates about how much its combat capability can be ensured while blocking the enemy’s location. Boeing, General Atomiks, Lockheed, and Northrop received funding to develop a preliminary concept for UCLASS, awaiting a tender that did not take place in the 2014 year, as planned.
Unmanned ethics
The growing world park of UAS meanwhile initiates disputes over the legal and ethical standards of the use of drones. Among the most discussed questions are: can a blow with a UAV be justified as self-defense, is this a proportional response to the actions of the other side? These and related problems are not only investigated by the legal departments of the Ministries of Defense and Justice, but also arouse wide discussions among specialists and the interested public. There are questions about the use of force in a broader sense. For example, can UAS reduce the costs of waging war or facilitate intervention, is it possible to increase the number of deployed UAS in connection with the alleged protection of troops and the ability of drones to take a long time. This applies in particular to intelligence platforms.
The growth of the UAS market makes it necessary to solve a number of practical tasks. For example, how to integrate the increasing number of used platforms into national and international airspace. So far, the vast majority of UAVs have been used for reconnaissance, observation and data collection in the unarrooned sky. Calculations of the effectiveness of unmanned systems can change dramatically if the UAVs enter the contested airspace and interfere with the active action of the air defense. Increasing the autonomy of UAS only sharpens controversy and debate.
Wings health resort
As for civilian applications, thousands of small UAS are already flying in the interests of commercial users. The number of amateurs operating such systems is constantly growing. Modern battery powered multicopters are stable platforms for easy-to-use high-resolution cameras that can be used in the interests of realtors, directors and paparazzi.
The three main suppliers of such BAS include Chinese DJI, French Parrot (Parrot), American 3D Robotics (3D Robotics - 3DR). According to DJI, she sends weekly up to 10 thousands of such systems to the United States during the holiday season. 3DR, according to available information, sold 30 thousands of systems by the middle of 2014. And the company “Parrot”, which has supplied customers with half a million AR drones since its entry into the market in 2010, claims that its sales have tripled in 2014 year in relation to 2013 and will increase in the same year to 2015 year.If the estimates of sales of "amateur" drones are correct, the volume of their release this year could exceed a million. The cost of such UAVs ranges from 40 to 850 dollars, while models with advanced features are sold at a price of 2300 – 3600 dollars. Cheaper systems are in high demand, and the volume of their supplies may increase in some year, and the next sharply. Sales of “amateur” UAS annually form a niche in 150 – 800 million dollars.
In order to grow other segments of the UAS civilian market, they must be integrated into controlled airspace. This requires much more time than expected, due to various problems - from air traffic safety to the inviolability of private property. The Federal Aviation Administration of the United States (FAA) (Federal Aviation Administration) predicts the release of a commercial UAS 7500 over the next five years instead of the previously expected 10 000.
The most promising area of application for civilian UAS in the short term is agriculture. More 2300 unmanned systems are already being used to spray pesticides and fertilizers in rice fields in Asia. In Japan, they do up to 90 percent of such work. The same, and possibly more voluminous, will be the American market for agricultural drones. By some estimates, 80 percent of future UAS commercial users are farmers.
Among other potential applications of civilian UAS are inspection of pipelines and power lines. The length of the US oil and gas pipelines exceeds 643 700 kilometers. For control, carried out at least six times a year, manned aircraft are in the air for more than 12 million hours. UAS could start inspection raids in 2017 – 2018. The flight of the UAV, according to calculations, will exceed six million hours by the year of 2025.
According to Forecast International, the market for civil and commercial BAS will grow rather slowly, with the exception of amateur devices.
Information