"Liner" and "Avangard" against US missile defense
The next stage of the diplomatic war between NATO and Russia, around European missile defense, continues. At the beginning of the year, representatives of our country made statements that if decisions that would suit Russia would not be found, Moscow would apply the most stringent measures.
Possible outcome
The main measure on which our country will have to go is the way out of the recently entered into force of the START-3 Treaty. In addition, to create the potential for the destruction of missile defense assets, Russia will be able to deploy strike groups of missile weapons on various borders of Europe.
Before the Russia-NATO Council earned in Sochi, it was known that Russia's requirements are, in fact, ultimatum: either we agree, or we will begin implementing the measures promised earlier. Moreover, it is clear that even if the president is replaced in Russia, it will not be able to influence such plans — this is the consolidated position of the entire highest military-political elite of the country. Nevertheless, the contract in Sochi did not take place - everything remained, as it was. Negotiators are trying to smooth out the tension from tough statements, but everyone understands: the clouds - thicken.
Is the threat real?
The main question is whether Russia will implement the previously promised retaliatory measures. There is no need to bring events closer.
The planned European missile defense system cannot threaten (SNF) with Russia's strategic nuclear forces. The anti-missile SM-3 Block IA, which is in service with NATO, can only be opposed with operational-tactical missiles, and not all. So far, our Iskander-M is too tough for anyone.
The modification of the Block IB, which is now being tested, has a bit greater height and interception range, but it will be very difficult for it to knock down even medium-range missiles. K 2016 – 2017 In the US, it is planned to create new versions of their anti-missile systems. As they said, the missiles will be able to intercept targets at a distance of more than 1500 km and hit the ICBM. But to hit not all, but only those whose launch range is up to 6000 km.
It would seem that these missiles will indeed be able to pose at least some threat to the missile divisions of the Strategic Missile Forces, which are stationed in the European part of the Russian Federation. Their launching ICBMs do not even have time to finish dispersal, separate the stages, push the combat blocks and release the means that could help overcome the missile defense system. Our missiles, which can launch against targets in the United States, bypassing the North Pole from positions in the division of the Vladimir Rocket Army, cannot intercept the American antimissiles. Since they will need to catch up with them from a very awkward position. But if we attack with rockets, for example, England, then they will intercept. But this variant of the expenditure of missiles closest to Europe is practically impossible - such targets are being developed by other means of SNF from other regions.
It is quite clear that Russia rightly cares about the very fact of deploying antimissiles and, much worse, about the missile defense radar. Yes, so far the antimissiles, which would be able to catch up with the ICBMs, do not exist. But then, it may appear. Even the Americans began to work on the development of the head of the anti-missile with several interceptors, and this is already dangerous.
Therefore, during negotiations, Russia will put pressure on its interlocutors, prepare retaliatory measures and turn them into those that will not require the destruction of the negotiated regime with difficulty. In addition, the chance to agree on missile defense today is still real. The execution of the ultimatum can be started at any time.
Avangard, Inevitability and Liner
In connection with discussions on missile defense, it is interesting to look at a number of well-controlled (others in this fine area, strategic nuclear forces and can not be) "plums" about the new missile defense tests and developments in Russia.
Just recently, at the end of May, an ordinary, as it looked like, launch of a ballistic missile from aboard the Yekaterinburg missile cruiser was made. But a few days later it became known: instead of the new one, but already from 2007, which was in service with the Sineva-2 rocket, a new Rocket, the Liner, was successfully tested. What kind of rocket is this - “Liner”, so far no one can say for sure. The title of this work flashed only in the annual report of the enterprise developer.
The most likely guess is the following: “Liner” is “Sineva-2” in which they improved protection against missile defense at the initial site and added new more advanced warheads. That is why, more vulnerable in comparison with the Bulava at the start, Sineva will reduce its gap from the new rocket.
Almost a few days ago, Russian Defense Minister Serdyukov made a statement: “Supply of strategic missiles will increase by more than 3 times (Avangard, Yars, Topol-M), and ballistic missiles for submarines (Sineva, "Mace") - in 1.5 times ".
Of course, it is pleasing to the soul news. But everyone who at least slightly understands strategic stability was interested in the mention of the mysterious Avangard ICBM. What is it? Assumptions that “Avangard” is a promising heavy ICBM, which will be replaced by “Governor” (according to the NATO classification - “Satan” SS-18), are clearly erroneous. But the fact is that the adoption of such a "heavyweight champion" before 2015 – 2018. not scheduled. And Mr. Serdyukov said about the production of serial products.
There is an assumption that the Avangard is a more developed newest Yars ICBM. It is assumed that on the new warhead there will be no stage of breeding, which directs the warheads to the target. Now they will diverge on separate goals with the help of built-in engines. This assumption drives another nail into the coffin of the US missile defense. Not so long ago, Y. Solomonov spoke about the tomb in his interview. But Avangard may well be the mine option of the mobile Yars.
But the most possible version, according to experts, is that the Avangard is a completely new missile system, the development of which was carried out under the strictest secrecy. About "Yars" before the first launch, too, there was no hearing. But until now, the majority considers Yars to be only Topol-M, which has a warhead. But it is not. "Yars" is different and new type of fuel, and other nodes - it is a completely new system based on the old. It is likely that the Avangard may be a completely new complex, with unknown features and characteristics.
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