Mistral DVKD transfer: France continues to drag out time
Last Wednesday received a further sequel. story with the transfer of amphibious helicopter-carrying docking ships (MFDD) of the Mistral type, being built in France by order of the Russian military. With a difference of several hours from Paris came two newswhich once again showed the specifics of the situation around the ships, and also stressed its complexity for the French leadership.
September 3 French Presidential Administration has published information from the Security Council meeting held that day. During the event, President Francois Hollande made an important statement regarding the current contract with Russia for the supply of two amphibious ships. The head of state noted that at present there are no necessary conditions for the transfer of the first of the ordered ships. In this regard, the French leadership does not consider it possible to transfer the first "Mistral" to the customer. The reason for such a decision was called the Ukrainian events and the position of Russia.
On the evening of the same day, RIA Novosti news agency reported that its employees were able to contact DCNS, which is building the ordered ships. Representatives of the shipbuilder did not comment on the statements of the French president. The official comment of the company was not yet ready and was not announced.
A few hours after the publication of the information announced at the Security Council meeting, the press service of the Elysee Palace was forced to give an additional comment. First of all, the press service noted that while there is no question of breaking the contract with Russia. It was alleged that F. Hollande stated the complexity of the situation in Ukraine and in connection with it made a statement about the ships for Russia. However, the words of the president were political in nature and had no political consequences.
At the same time, the press service noted that the transfer of the first of the "Mistral" is scheduled for November 1. If in the remaining two months the situation in Ukraine does not change, France will not be able to transfer. At the same time, France does not intend to unilaterally terminate the contract.
Thus, by Wednesday evening, the situation with the official position of Paris on the issue of the delivery of two ships cleared up. However, serious questions remained. First of all, the approach to the business of the President of France and his administration caused surprise. First, statements were published that could be interpreted, inter alia, in favor of refusal to transfer ships, and then explanations appeared, to some extent refuting this version. Why the administration and the press service of the French president made such a blunder is unknown.
At the moment, after all the statements and explanations, the position of the official Paris on the transfer of two Mistral DVKD is as follows. The French leadership does not object to the continuation of the contract. Nevertheless, it believes that Russia's position on the Ukrainian crisis should have certain consequences. Therefore, the leaders of France believe that at present the ships cannot be transferred to the customer: “there are no necessary conditions” for this. The final decision will be made later, in early November, when it was planned to transfer the first ship “Vladivostok” to the naval the fleet Of Russia. When making the decision, the events of the next two months, September and October, as well as the further development of events in Ukraine will be taken into account.
It should be recalled that on Wednesday the President of France had not, for the first time, raised the topic of transferring amphibious ships being built for Russia. Shortly after the start of the well-known Ukrainian events and the confrontation connected with them in the international arena, the United States demanded that France join in the sanctions against Russia, including the termination of the contract for the construction of ships. Since then, for several months, official Paris has been forced to find a way out that will preserve good relations not only with Washington, demanding not to give the ships, but also with Moscow, reminiscent of contractual obligations.
Since the beginning of this “epic”, for several months now, experts have repeatedly reminded of the risks for France associated with the refusal of the transfer of ships. The fact is that in the event of a breach of contract, both France and Russia will face certain problems of a different nature. For example, for France, the refusal may result in the need to pay a large penalty. Such financial implications must be taken into account when making the final decision.
About two months are left before the said decision timeline. During this time, it is likely that new statements will be made regarding bilateral relations, the existing contract and the situation in Ukraine. Nevertheless, we can already say what consequences this or that decision of official Paris will have.
If the leadership of France decides to continue the implementation of the contract, then both parties will be satisfied. Russia will receive two amphibious ships of a new class for themselves, and French shipbuilders will earn about 1,2 billion euros. Before the deterioration of the international situation, such a scenario was not in any doubt, and also looked right and beneficial for both countries. Currently, the implementation of the contract will cause a negative reaction from the United States. France seeks to maintain good relations with its overseas partner, because of which the fulfillment of the contract no longer looks like the only right decision.
The United States is putting pressure on France and demanding to break the contract, citing the need to punish Russia. Nevertheless, the effect of such a decision, however strange it may seem, will hit Russia least of all. Due to the refusal of France, our country will not receive two landing craft, and besides, it will have to demand from the former partners in the contract to return the money paid. In the light of the well-known theses, according to which the MKDD DVKD are not needed by the Russian Navy, such a “punishment” for a position on the Ukrainian crisis looks extremely strange, if not comical.
France, in turn, will receive several problems of a different nature. First of all, the refusal to fulfill the order is unprofitable for economic reasons. Refusing to transfer ships of Russia, France will have to return the money already paid to it, as well as pay a substantial fine. According to various sources, the size of the latter can range from 3 to 10 billion euros. In this case, such a financial burden will fall on the company-contractor, namely DCNS. It is unlikely that French shipbuilders will be delighted with this “gift” from the country's leadership. Russia, in turn, will be glad not only to return what was spent, but also to receive solid compensation. This money can go, for example, to the development of domestic shipbuilding.
The second problem related to the breach of contract is the loss of reputation of a reliable supplier. According to the Stockholm World Research Institute (SIPRI), in recent years, France has consistently been in the top ten of the world's largest suppliers of weapons and military equipment. French companies sell a wide range of equipment, from armored cars to ships. Failure to supply "Mistral" under pressure from the United States could hit the reputation of France as a reliable partner. Some countries wishing to purchase French weapon or the technician may think about the expediency of concluding contracts with representatives of the state, which is able at any time to refuse to fulfill the order.
It should be noted that the deterioration of the reputation of France can be useful for Russia. Some customers of weapons and equipment who are disillusioned with French politics may show interest in Russian products and acquire them. In addition, the breach of contract will surely please other countries that are actively selling weapons: the United States, Germany, China, etc.
Finally, the latest problem for France is the further fate of one built and one ship under construction. The best way out would be to sell them to a third country, but the European states and the United States have not yet expressed a desire to buy back the disputed MKDDF for their fleets. The situation with the built ships can worsen an interesting feature of their construction. The fact is that the feed sections of the hulls were built in Russia, after which they were sent to France. The Russian side may well make claims regarding these nodes, which will complicate the already difficult situation of the French partners.
It should be recognized that in France, all the risks associated with the refusal to transfer ships are well understood. Earlier, some French politicians and experts warned the president and reminded about possible consequences. This time, too, was not without deprecatory comments. Thus, the leader of the "National Front" Marine Le Pen criticized the words of F. Hollande, citing economic and reputational risks. In addition, she noted the ambiguous view of a possible rejection from a political point of view. According to her, he will demonstrate that Paris acts on the orders of Washington.
The current disputes around the two "Mistral" for Russia began in May. They have been going on for four months and will last at least until the beginning of November. Thus, from the first requirements of the United States to the final decision of France will take at least six months. In other words, the French leadership needs several months to make a decision. It seems that F. Hollande and his colleagues perfectly understand all the possible consequences of any decision. The transfer of ships will lead to a deterioration in relations with the United States. The refusal, in turn, will embroil Russia with France, as well as “give” the latter a lot of additional problems that could have been avoided.
Everything looks as if French officials, realizing the complexity of the situation, are trying to take time and not to rush to make a decision. They hope that in the near future the confrontation over the events in Ukraine will cease, as a result of which it will be possible to safely fulfill their obligations without regard to the position of foreign partners. From the latest statements by Francois Hollande and his administration, it is clear that now the French leadership intends to postpone the final decision until at least November. What will happen next - time will tell. F. Hollande and his colleagues have to make an extremely difficult choice.
On the materials of the sites:
http://ria.ru/
http://interfax.ru/
http://armstrade.org/
http://sipri.org/
September 3 French Presidential Administration has published information from the Security Council meeting held that day. During the event, President Francois Hollande made an important statement regarding the current contract with Russia for the supply of two amphibious ships. The head of state noted that at present there are no necessary conditions for the transfer of the first of the ordered ships. In this regard, the French leadership does not consider it possible to transfer the first "Mistral" to the customer. The reason for such a decision was called the Ukrainian events and the position of Russia.
On the evening of the same day, RIA Novosti news agency reported that its employees were able to contact DCNS, which is building the ordered ships. Representatives of the shipbuilder did not comment on the statements of the French president. The official comment of the company was not yet ready and was not announced.
A few hours after the publication of the information announced at the Security Council meeting, the press service of the Elysee Palace was forced to give an additional comment. First of all, the press service noted that while there is no question of breaking the contract with Russia. It was alleged that F. Hollande stated the complexity of the situation in Ukraine and in connection with it made a statement about the ships for Russia. However, the words of the president were political in nature and had no political consequences.
At the same time, the press service noted that the transfer of the first of the "Mistral" is scheduled for November 1. If in the remaining two months the situation in Ukraine does not change, France will not be able to transfer. At the same time, France does not intend to unilaterally terminate the contract.
Thus, by Wednesday evening, the situation with the official position of Paris on the issue of the delivery of two ships cleared up. However, serious questions remained. First of all, the approach to the business of the President of France and his administration caused surprise. First, statements were published that could be interpreted, inter alia, in favor of refusal to transfer ships, and then explanations appeared, to some extent refuting this version. Why the administration and the press service of the French president made such a blunder is unknown.
At the moment, after all the statements and explanations, the position of the official Paris on the transfer of two Mistral DVKD is as follows. The French leadership does not object to the continuation of the contract. Nevertheless, it believes that Russia's position on the Ukrainian crisis should have certain consequences. Therefore, the leaders of France believe that at present the ships cannot be transferred to the customer: “there are no necessary conditions” for this. The final decision will be made later, in early November, when it was planned to transfer the first ship “Vladivostok” to the naval the fleet Of Russia. When making the decision, the events of the next two months, September and October, as well as the further development of events in Ukraine will be taken into account.
It should be recalled that on Wednesday the President of France had not, for the first time, raised the topic of transferring amphibious ships being built for Russia. Shortly after the start of the well-known Ukrainian events and the confrontation connected with them in the international arena, the United States demanded that France join in the sanctions against Russia, including the termination of the contract for the construction of ships. Since then, for several months, official Paris has been forced to find a way out that will preserve good relations not only with Washington, demanding not to give the ships, but also with Moscow, reminiscent of contractual obligations.
Since the beginning of this “epic”, for several months now, experts have repeatedly reminded of the risks for France associated with the refusal of the transfer of ships. The fact is that in the event of a breach of contract, both France and Russia will face certain problems of a different nature. For example, for France, the refusal may result in the need to pay a large penalty. Such financial implications must be taken into account when making the final decision.
About two months are left before the said decision timeline. During this time, it is likely that new statements will be made regarding bilateral relations, the existing contract and the situation in Ukraine. Nevertheless, we can already say what consequences this or that decision of official Paris will have.
If the leadership of France decides to continue the implementation of the contract, then both parties will be satisfied. Russia will receive two amphibious ships of a new class for themselves, and French shipbuilders will earn about 1,2 billion euros. Before the deterioration of the international situation, such a scenario was not in any doubt, and also looked right and beneficial for both countries. Currently, the implementation of the contract will cause a negative reaction from the United States. France seeks to maintain good relations with its overseas partner, because of which the fulfillment of the contract no longer looks like the only right decision.
The United States is putting pressure on France and demanding to break the contract, citing the need to punish Russia. Nevertheless, the effect of such a decision, however strange it may seem, will hit Russia least of all. Due to the refusal of France, our country will not receive two landing craft, and besides, it will have to demand from the former partners in the contract to return the money paid. In the light of the well-known theses, according to which the MKDD DVKD are not needed by the Russian Navy, such a “punishment” for a position on the Ukrainian crisis looks extremely strange, if not comical.
France, in turn, will receive several problems of a different nature. First of all, the refusal to fulfill the order is unprofitable for economic reasons. Refusing to transfer ships of Russia, France will have to return the money already paid to it, as well as pay a substantial fine. According to various sources, the size of the latter can range from 3 to 10 billion euros. In this case, such a financial burden will fall on the company-contractor, namely DCNS. It is unlikely that French shipbuilders will be delighted with this “gift” from the country's leadership. Russia, in turn, will be glad not only to return what was spent, but also to receive solid compensation. This money can go, for example, to the development of domestic shipbuilding.
The second problem related to the breach of contract is the loss of reputation of a reliable supplier. According to the Stockholm World Research Institute (SIPRI), in recent years, France has consistently been in the top ten of the world's largest suppliers of weapons and military equipment. French companies sell a wide range of equipment, from armored cars to ships. Failure to supply "Mistral" under pressure from the United States could hit the reputation of France as a reliable partner. Some countries wishing to purchase French weapon or the technician may think about the expediency of concluding contracts with representatives of the state, which is able at any time to refuse to fulfill the order.
It should be noted that the deterioration of the reputation of France can be useful for Russia. Some customers of weapons and equipment who are disillusioned with French politics may show interest in Russian products and acquire them. In addition, the breach of contract will surely please other countries that are actively selling weapons: the United States, Germany, China, etc.
Finally, the latest problem for France is the further fate of one built and one ship under construction. The best way out would be to sell them to a third country, but the European states and the United States have not yet expressed a desire to buy back the disputed MKDDF for their fleets. The situation with the built ships can worsen an interesting feature of their construction. The fact is that the feed sections of the hulls were built in Russia, after which they were sent to France. The Russian side may well make claims regarding these nodes, which will complicate the already difficult situation of the French partners.
It should be recognized that in France, all the risks associated with the refusal to transfer ships are well understood. Earlier, some French politicians and experts warned the president and reminded about possible consequences. This time, too, was not without deprecatory comments. Thus, the leader of the "National Front" Marine Le Pen criticized the words of F. Hollande, citing economic and reputational risks. In addition, she noted the ambiguous view of a possible rejection from a political point of view. According to her, he will demonstrate that Paris acts on the orders of Washington.
The current disputes around the two "Mistral" for Russia began in May. They have been going on for four months and will last at least until the beginning of November. Thus, from the first requirements of the United States to the final decision of France will take at least six months. In other words, the French leadership needs several months to make a decision. It seems that F. Hollande and his colleagues perfectly understand all the possible consequences of any decision. The transfer of ships will lead to a deterioration in relations with the United States. The refusal, in turn, will embroil Russia with France, as well as “give” the latter a lot of additional problems that could have been avoided.
Everything looks as if French officials, realizing the complexity of the situation, are trying to take time and not to rush to make a decision. They hope that in the near future the confrontation over the events in Ukraine will cease, as a result of which it will be possible to safely fulfill their obligations without regard to the position of foreign partners. From the latest statements by Francois Hollande and his administration, it is clear that now the French leadership intends to postpone the final decision until at least November. What will happen next - time will tell. F. Hollande and his colleagues have to make an extremely difficult choice.
On the materials of the sites:
http://ria.ru/
http://interfax.ru/
http://armstrade.org/
http://sipri.org/
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