Military Review

You will never have a flying car and trips to Mars

You will never have a flying car and trips to Mars. We have not learned to defend ourselves from earthquakes and hurricanes, to travel faster or live longer. But this is nothing ...

You will never have a flying car and trips to Mars

The 21st century turned out to be completely different from the forecasts of fifty years ago. There are no intelligent robots, no flying cars, no cities on other planets. Worse, we are not a step closer to such a future. Instead, we have an iPhone, Twitter and Google, but is this an adequate replacement? However, they still use the operating system that appeared in 1969 year.

More and more people are starting to suspect that something is wrong. It seems that technical progress, if not stopped, then at least failed. Frivolous gadgets change every month like a clock, and significant problems, the solution of which seemed close and inevitable, are somehow forgotten. Writer Neil Stevenson tried to formulate these doubts in the article “Innovative starvation”:

“One of my first memories: I sit in front of a bulky black and white TV and watch one of the first American astronauts go into space. The last start of the last shuttle I saw on the widescreen LCD panel when I was hit by a 51 year. I watched the space program decline, with sadness, even bitterness. Where are the promised toroidal space stations? Where is my ticket to mars? We are unable to replicate even the cosmic achievements of the sixties. I am afraid this indicates that society has forgotten how to cope with really complex tasks. ”

Stevenson is echoed by Peter Thiel, one of the founders of the Paypal payment system and the first external investor to Facebook. The article he published in the National Review is firmly titled “The End of the Future”:

“Technical progress is clearly lagging behind the majestic hopes of the fifties and sixties, and this is happening on many fronts. Here is the most literal example of slowing progress: the speed of our movement has ceased to grow. Centuries-old история the emergence of increasingly faster modes of transport, which began with sailboats in the XNUMXth-XNUMXth centuries, continued with the development of railways in the XNUMXth century and the advent of cars and aviation in the 2003th century, it reversed when, in XNUMX, the Concord, the last supersonic passenger plane, was decommissioned. Against the backdrop of such a regression and stagnation, those who continue to dream about spaceships, vacations on the moon and sending astronauts to other planets of the solar system seem aliens themselves. ”

This is not the only argument in favor of the theory that technical progress is slowing down. Her supporters propose to look at least at computing equipment. All fundamental ideas in this field are at least forty years old. Unix will be 45 in a year. SQL came up in the early seventies. At the same time, the Internet, object-oriented programming and graphical user interface appeared.

In addition to examples, there are numbers. Economists estimate the impact of technical progress in terms of productivity growth and changes in the gross domestic product of countries where new technologies are being introduced. Changes in these indicators during the 20th century confirm that the suspicions of pessimists are not unfounded: the growth rate has been falling for several decades.

In the United States, the impact of technical progress on gross domestic product reached a peak in the mid-thirties of the 20th century. If labor productivity in the United States continued to grow at the rate set in 1950 — 1972, by the year 2011 it would have reached a value that is a third higher than in reality. In other countries of the first world, the picture is about the same.

In 1999, economist Robert Gordon published a paper in which he suggested that the rapid growth of the economy, which is commonly associated with technical progress, was in reality a time-limited surge:

“The reason for the acceleration that occurred around 1972 and opened the brilliant sixty year period between World War I and the early seventies, during which labor productivity growth in the United States was ahead of everything that was observed before or after times. "

Gordon believes that the surge caused a new industrial revolution that occurred in this period. Electrification, the spread of internal combustion engines, breakthroughs in the chemical industry and the emergence of new types of communications and new media, in particular film and television, fell at the end of the 19th and the first half of the 20th century. Growth continued until their potential was consumed to the end.

But what about electronics and the Internet, which have become truly massive only in the last twenty years? From the point of view of Gordon, they had a much smaller impact on the economy than electricity, internal combustion engines, communications and the chemical industry — the “big four” of the industrial revolution of the early 20th century — and therefore far less important:

“The Big Four have been a far more powerful source of productivity growth than anything that has emerged lately. Most of the inventions that we see now are “derivatives” of old ideas. For example, video recorders combined television and cinema, but the fundamental impact of their appearance cannot be compared with the effect that the invention of one of their predecessors produced. The Internet, too, basically leads to the replacement of one form of entertainment by another - and nothing more. ”

Peter Thiel is of the same opinion: the Internet and gadgets are not bad, but by and large there are still trifles. This idea is succinctly expressed in the motto of his investment firm Founders Fund: “We dreamed of flying cars, but received Twitter 140 signs.” The column in the Financial Times, written by Thiel in collaboration with Garry Kasparov, develops the same idea:

“We can send photos of cats to the other end of the world with the help of telephones and watch the same old movie about the future, while being in the subway, built a hundred years ago. We can write programs that realistically simulate futuristic landscapes, but the real landscapes around us have hardly changed in half a century. We have not learned to defend ourselves from earthquakes and hurricanes, to travel faster or live longer. ”

On the one hand, it’s hard to disagree. Nostalgia for the simple and optimistic retro-future is completely natural. On the other hand, the complaints of pessimists, despite the numbers and graphs that they cite, do not fit well with the insane reality outside the window. It is not really very similar to the dreams of the sixties, but the similarity with outdated dreams is a dubious criterion for determining value.

Ultimately, futuristic spaceships and flying cars are pretty simple ideas. Both are merely an extrapolation into the future of what existed in the past. A flying car is just a car, and some starship with Captain Kirk at the head is a fantastic variation on the theme of a warship of the Second World War.

If you just read today's newsIt turns out that:

- Autonomous self-driving cars that are able to drive on ordinary roads without human help are successfully tested. Local governments in the United States are already discussing what to do with them: cars without drivers do not fit into the usual rules of the road.

- The lion's share of exchange operations is turned not by people, but by special programs that commit thousands of transactions per second. At such a speed, they cannot be controlled, so most of the time they act on their own. Unforeseen combinations of algorithms have already led to instantaneous collapses of the market, and even long investigations do not always find the cause of the incident.

- the main weapons The US in the Middle East imperceptibly became unmanned aerial vehicles, controlled by satellite from another continent. And this is the technology of the nineties. In laboratories with might and main they test autonomous robots - both flying and ground.

- Google has released electronic glasses that automatically find and show the user information that, in their opinion, is most useful to him at the moment. In addition, glasses are able at any time to write down everything that he sees. Oh yeah, they also have a built-in voice translator into many languages.

- 3D-printers, on the one hand, have fallen in price to such a level that almost everyone can buy them, and on the other hand, they have reached a resolution, at which it is possible to print objects with details about 30 nanometers in size. In order to photograph printed, an electron microscope is required.

- The idea that a normal video cable could hide inside a full-fledged, but very small, computer running under Unix, would have recently seemed absurd. Now it is a reality: it is easier for developers to take a ready-made single-chip system than to develop a specialized microcontroller.

This is not a listing of the most amazing things, but only that which lies on the surface itself. In fact, this list can be continued indefinitely - especially if, in addition to information technologies that are close to us, we can touch on biotechnologies, materials science and other rapidly developing, but not very understandable to people from the street areas of knowledge.

Is it boring This is because a lot is seen at a distance, and we are at the very epicenter. Habit keeps us from seeing how weird things are happening around.

Calling all this little things that do not deserve special attention, as Til does, will not work. Each of these inventions, even frivolous at first glance, has (or at least is capable of having) a huge impact on how people live.

See for yourself. What will be the consequences of spreading Google Glass Electronic Glasses? Even if you do not take into account the fact that they are constantly studying their owner, to better understand what information and when he may need (and this in itself is a very interesting direction for the development of interfaces), think about the camera built into the glasses. Add face recognition and Internet search to it - and think about how this will affect the daily life of the user of such a device. And the possibility of creating a continuous video archive of your own life (this is also called life-blogging)? It is no coincidence that some people are already sounding the alarm and calling for banning Google Glass - they understand that if such a device becomes popular, it will be harder to ignore it than mobile phones today.

A self-guided car is also a blow to the traditional way of life. All the consequences to which the general availability of such technology may lead, it is difficult not only to list, but also to predict. Here are a couple of popular predictions. Firstly, it is not necessary for a self-driving car to wait for the driver in the parking lot. It may well serve not one, but several people. This, in turn, will lead to a complete change in the very approach to owning a car. Secondly, robots behave on the road where people are more careful. This means that you can forget about the hundreds of thousands of accidents per year ending in the death of people. Finally, do not forget about the time that people spent behind the wheel. It will be free for other activities.

Even such an ordinary thing as a cable with a built-in computer is not a trifle at all. Little things in such matters does not happen. The effect of reducing the cost of existing technology is often completely unpredictable and may be superior in effect to the emergence of new inventions. What will be the consequences of further reducing the cost and power consumption of single-crystal computers capable of running Unix? Read about ubiquitous computing and sensor networks.

Mobile phones that Til so easily swept away, really allow "to send photos of cats to the other end of the world." But not only cats. With the same ease they allow you to copy and publish on the Internet gigabytes of classified information, causing an international diplomatic scandal. And frivolous means of communication like Facebook, text messages Blackberry and Twitter with its 140 signs reduce the complexity of mass communication, reducing the need for conscious organization of joint actions of groups of people. Even the iPhone, an exemplary symbol of senseless consumerism, on closer examination turns out to be a very important milestone: it was he who pushed the development of a new generation of computers after a quarter of a century of stagnation.

Why is this not reflected in economic indicators? Most likely, he finds it, but not the way economists expect. Previous industrial revolutions led to increased productivity and the emergence of new industries. This - on the contrary, makes whole industries unviable and displaces a lot of things beyond the limits of the monetary economy.

The first to feel it was easily copied by content producers — the music industry, the media, book publishers, Hollywood. Their business models on both sides are devouring ubiquitous illegal copying and a huge number of amateurs who suddenly got the opportunity to compete on equal terms with professionals for the attention of viewers.

Look in the folders where you keep pirated movies and music, and calculate how much you would have to pay for their legal versions. This is the amount that economists could not take into account when calculating the gross domestic product per capita. The value of the product you consumed did not diminish from the fact that you did not pay a penny for it, but it was taken out of the economy.

Each successful technology company destroys the potential revenues of thousands of competitors operating in the same market with traditional methods. Craigslist almost single-handedly ruined the market for paid advertisements, from which American newspapers have lived for a hundred years. No traditional encyclopedia can compete with Wikipedia, which formally is not even a commercial organization. AirBnB knocks the chair out from under the foot of the hotel industry (so far only in some niches, but it still will), and Uber has significantly complicated the life of a traditional taxi. And so on and so forth.

Meanwhile, industrial robots, the introduction of which has been delayed due to the availability of cheap labor in Southeast Asia, are becoming more attractive. Foxconn, one of China's largest electronics manufacturers, is threatening to replace hundreds of thousands of workers with machines. If this happens, the labor market will go after other markets that are killed by new technologies, and economists will have to invent some other economy.

At least, then surely no one will come to complain that progress has ended. It’s not over, it’s just not going where you thought it was.
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  1. Russian German
    Russian German April 26 2014 09: 23
    And we will have a station on the moon !!! (see Rogozin's statement) good
    1. invisibility
      invisibility April 26 2014 09: 37
      People -. They did a lot of stupid things: they came up with costumes for dogs, the position of an advertising manager and things like an iPhone, having received in return nothing but a sour aftertaste. Mankind has been given the opportunity to surf the cosmos, but it wants to engage in consumption - to drink beer and watch TV shows.
      You can’t say better!
      1. Logos
        Logos April 30 2014 19: 27
        Humanity is plowing space with the help of unmanned spacecraft. To send a person to the dusty paths of distant planets is too stupid and wasteful at the current level of development of cosmonautics, robots will be cheaper and will make much more astronauts
    2. Starfish
      Starfish April 26 2014 09: 45
      will not be unfortunately. soon will not be to the stations on the moon.
      article put a plus for the last paragraph. the development vector is directed by someone towards dulling the population and strengthening control over it.
      1. schizophrenic
        schizophrenic April 26 2014 10: 34
        Quote: Starfish
        control over him.

        The influence vector has been noticeable for a long time in the Church. First, they try to break down what is brought up in a person and create a consumer society. After all, the Greeks invented the first steam engine, and the Chinese gunpowder, and when it came to dealing with this issue in the monasteries, everything immediately found application in life. First of all, they went to monasteries not from a good life, but because of the opportunity to create. When a person is relieved of the opportunity to earn his living by spending all his time working, he does not have the opportunity to think about why he lives. At the same time, if a person does not work and eat to the dump he turns into an animal due to the lack of moral and spiritual education.
        In the New Testament, just this struggle is described, you can calculate what it will lead to.
        1. schizophrenic
          schizophrenic April 26 2014 11: 00
          In his spare time, he estimated the data of scientists on the available data on the planets of the possibility of life on them. That's what I did. Hell; a planet, a high content of toxic substances, high volcanic activity, difficult climatic conditions, with such a planet the strongest survives and controls the rest who are weaker.
          Angels a planet, less gravity compared to the earth, a higher density of the atmosphere, the ability to fly, which requires wings, very favorable living conditions, as a result, the need for constant monitoring of oneself to exclude the imbalance of the planet.

          These are the resulting data, you can draw conclusions yourself.
      2. Jurkovs
        Jurkovs April 26 2014 20: 37
        All this is superbly described fifty years ago in Stanislav Lem's novel "Return from the Stars", by the way, one of the Queen's favorite books. Read it if you want to know how our grandchildren will end.
    3. And Us Rat
      And Us Rat April 26 2014 11: 05
      I am more and more inclined to think that communism is not a utopia, it's just that the idea has catastrophically overtaken the technological process, if a person is excluded from the production chain, and 90-95% of his needs are met through automated self-sufficient systems and robots - the motto is "from each according to his ability, to each according to needs "acquires a semantic load that does not contradict economic logic.
      Cars do not have to pay a salary.

      But only the elites are afraid of such a scenario as fire, when it is put into practice, they will lose leverage based on the dependence of ordinary people on them ...
      (And also their fellow travelers on interests in the person of religious fundamentalism)

      The world revolution is not a figment of the sick imagination of the old man Marx, but inevitability, a step in the evolution of civilization - imposed by progress. A kind of rebirth from a "doll" into a "butterfly", a high-quality race ...
      The question is how it will go, and what price will have to pay for it ... what

      And the main thing ... how will this change a person as a species? Will the volcano of creativity and accomplishments ... or turn humanity into a population of drones dependent on machines? what

      1. Tektor
        Tektor April 26 2014 11: 26
        Obviously, after the disappearance of the USSR, the technical revolution died. Everything really new was created by scientists of the Union with the expenditure of enormous resources, but embodied in metal - in the states. It was economically advantageous: to sell the latest development to the west for crumbs, than to wait for years when it falls into the plan, and only what had an analogue in the west fell into the plan.
        1. Governor
          Governor April 26 2014 19: 11
          Everything is just like that. I will only add that by the end of the 80s the USSR got close to a certain technological border that he could and began to overcome. That is, after some time, by the forces of the Union, mankind could enter a new era; where there would be stations on the moon, and a cure for HIV, and something even more serious. It was this fact that could very well have caused such a quick collapse of the USSR ... This coincidence is already strange.
          PS And the ability to place ads for the sale of old junk not in the newspaper, but on the Internet - this is not progress even once, but hell knows what is for the consumer society. And all the talk about the miracle iPhone and all sorts of twitter there, I personally only evoke feelings of disgust and anger that a person is destroying himself, enjoying it.
        2. Mikhail3
          Mikhail3 April 26 2014 21: 22
          Much earlier. As soon as it became clear, the stupid Soviet leaders were ready to exchange the future of their country for their own power. That's when the brave, but stupid as a log, Soviet general burned up near the rocket nozzles, where he set his table, so it all died. It became clear that the Soviet leaders themselves would die, they would destroy the country, they would kill anything, but they would not give up power to smart people. Immediately in the West, technocrats began to be destroyed by financiers, who are stupid thieves. It became clear - you can not move forward.
          What led our civilization to a systemic impasse - power far from meeting the level of problems. Gadgets will not change anything globally. They will trample them and continue to fall into the abyss - the aggressive, dangerous, infinitely power-hungry bull-eaters do not care about the universal deadlock and the increasingly probable mutual destruction. The main thing is to maintain personal power.
      2. Mikhail3
        Mikhail3 April 26 2014 21: 16
        That's right. Only communism can withstand all of the above innovations. Well, or real socialism, not the one that Khrushchev and Brezhnev built for us, and then communism anyway. And the contradiction you identified correctly ....
      3. fennekRUS
        fennekRUS April 26 2014 22: 45
        I can not disagree. recourse Especially considering that on a global scale, the situation resembles "rollback to the previous stable state of the system" It is painful to often get buggy and hang the "operating system" of the current world. So far, everyone seems to be afraid of formatting and reinstalling. But what will happen tomorrow?
      4. nstarinsky
        nstarinsky April 27 2014 02: 01
        Communism is not a theory. This is just utopia. And such it is precisely because the person in it does not look real. Throughout communist theory, there is not a single indication of how to make a person honest and smart, that is, what he really is not. Attempts to realize utopia inevitably lead to a crisis. Communism as a whole is an absolutely failed utopia. And this my position is not a sentence to all of us to live and suffer under capitalism. Someday there will be an idea on how to move towards a more just society. But so far there is no such idea. We must start with the fact that there are obvious problems of capitalism.
        1. RONIN-HS
          RONIN-HS 2 May 2014 16: 11
          Take it easy. Everything has been calculated for 18 years, and lies on the Internet.
          Who would read ... here you go! - Forecast-2 collapse of the macromodel "Civilization of Homo Sapiens" - AND MORE, this is the main work - - General theory of social systems. Formation, operation and analysis of vector models.
          COMMUNISM - it is an attempt to the Rational structure of the world. Moreover, in many respects SUCCESSFUL. And if a transformation system (a rational change in the communism system) had been worked out, then the BOC could have been avoided by default.
          So do not sprinkle ash on your head - RATIONALISM and DEVELOPMENT are coming - or destruction.
          The choice is yours...
    4. Bear52
      Bear52 April 26 2014 12: 33
      Russian German RU Today, 09:23 AM New
      And we will have a station on the moon !!
      Rogozin and the statement - yes, there is. With a station more complicated, IMHO sad
      1. The comment was deleted.
      2. Aryan
        Aryan April 26 2014 13: 24
        We all will die? belay
        1. diff
          diff April 26 2014 16: 33
          The deceleration of the process of technical revolution is stopped due to the upbringing of only consumer qualities in us. Judge for yourself, America with its "advanced" market already in the 70-80s began to stop in its scientific and technological progress. Most of their alleged developments are not American at all. Today the same process is happening to us. But even a couple of decades ago there were not just a lot of people like Gosha (in the film "Moscow Does Not Believe in Tears"), but every second. Today, with the development, again, of the consumption market, it is not profitable for us to invent, invent, look for a rational solution (everything is already on the market), and it’s just expensive (it’s expensive and some "spare parts" simply cannot be found separately).
          A solution can be found only by returning the opportunity to learn to think as a constructor in the country. Many remember the Young Technicians Station, where children came and learned to create aircraft models, ship models, cars, etc. Today it’s very difficult to find a simple designer on sale, I found one, and so, he couldn’t compete with our Soviet in filling, but its price ...belay fool understand yourself!
          If today the state can promote this for modern children at the modern level, then believe our future in technology will be only advanced. And many will not want to be businessmen, lawyers and managers, but will be talented inventors and engineers, which mom, dad and RUSSIA will be proud of!
    5. Fedya
      Fedya April 26 2014 23: 25
      Maybe ! But I would not be in a hurry. If there is stagnation, then you should not jump over it. Recall that it was 100 years ago, the 1st World War began because many empires survived the rapid growth of industry and armaments, they wanted to simply fight and chop off the territories of the neighbors! The result was a breakthrough in aviation and tank building. World War 2 began because Germany could not win against everyone, and the possessed Fuhrer decided to take revenge for the defeat in the 1st, and again lost, simultaneously dropping tens of millions into the coffin. As a result, again a breakthrough in aviation, rocket science and also electronics. Due to stagnation and crises, Western corporations, as it were, did not start the 3rd in pursuit of superprofits, they will bring the planet to a zugunder and will have to dart to the Moon from here and to hell! So you don’t have to jump higher than you can, but it’s better to live farther and better without the rush. Going quietly - you will be longer!
    6. Jet
      Jet 3 May 2014 15: 13
      yeah, there are doubts at the expense of the station itself, but money for its construction will certainly be allocated, but only if its son wins the competition again;)
    7. zeleznijdorojnik
      zeleznijdorojnik 10 May 2014 11: 44
      Study, study and study again...
      1. Cormorants
        Cormorants 30 July 2014 11: 25
        Most likely, progress did not go the way of development, now everything is aimed at satisfying human laziness, at reducing any actions on the part of man, at simplifying physical and mental work. In my opinion, at some stage, technological progress has not correctly set future goals!
  2. blizart
    blizart April 26 2014 09: 38
    Just at the dawn of the rocket era, we all dreamed about space. For example, with my beloved girl, I dreamed of flying on an expedition with a generational change to Proxima Centauri love. What do today's teenagers dream of, I don’t know, some kind of connection was interrupted, it seems for generations
    1. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich April 26 2014 10: 04
      Quote: blizart
      Just at the dawn of the rocket era, we all dreamed about space. For example, with my beloved girl, I dreamed of flying on an expedition with a generational change to Proxima Centauri love. What do today's teenagers dream of, I don’t know, some kind of connection was interrupted, it seems for generations
      1. Roman Arslanov
        Roman Arslanov April 26 2014 15: 25
        I agree, great movies!
    2. And Us Rat
      And Us Rat April 26 2014 11: 17
      Quote: blizart
      What do today's teenagers dream of, I don’t know, some kind of connection was interrupted, for generations it seems ...

      Everything is much more banal and sad, with each generation the personal perception of the world is being modernized in an accelerating rhythm, and with each generation this gap is widening, and the process is accelerating - this is the cost of the progress of information technology, the previous generation is no longer the main source of knowledge, wisdom and experience, since what your parents have been telling you for years - your children learn on the Internet in weeks or even days, and often learn things that you didn’t even think about (since there was no one in the generation of fear for you lead you to believe), you have a child was 20-30 permanent interlocutors (source of ideas, perspectives, new knowledge), have your own children their 200-300, and their grandchildren will already 2000-3000 ...
      Draw conclusions. request
      1. Kadavercianin
        Kadavercianin 15 May 2014 12: 52
        There is only one thing about which it’s hard to find out in nete: human relationships, people have changed little over the past 30 years, so questions of practical relationships, anyway you learn from your own experience and ask your parents for advice.
    GRIGORY April 26 2014 09: 43
    Is there something missing or interfering? Who likes the status quo, and who is sitting idly by waiting for good weather? Why is everyone fighting, fighting crises, climate disasters, arming themselves. Why don't people just live on Earth for their own pleasure, why there is nothing to enjoy life? ________________ The West is to blame to a greater extent. Who unleashed the First World War and the Second World War? Who unleashed the "cold war" They were the FIRST who created the MILITARY NATO bloc. They were the first to adopt a resolution according to which NATO has the right to interfere in the internal politics of its members and neighboring states. They were the first to test a nuclear bomb. Who is now constantly interfering in sovereignty and destroying the economy of many states. And if all these forces could be directed for the benefit of humanity.? HOW WOULD WE LIVE? AND?
    1. Roman Arslanov
      Roman Arslanov April 26 2014 15: 27
      We would live well
      1. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich April 26 2014 15: 30
        Quote: Roman Arslanov
        We would live well

        I think it would be even better .... hi
  4. Lebedev Sergey
    Lebedev Sergey April 26 2014 09: 44
    We are the generation of the strongest and smartest people who have ever lived. With the potential that is wasted. A whole generation of gas station workers, waiters - white-collar slaves. Advertising makes us buy cars and rags. We drive hateful jobs to buy unnecessary things to us. We are the stepchildren of history. Neither purpose nor place. There has been no great war, no great depression. Our great war is spiritual. Our great depression is our existence. We were inspired on TV that one day we would become millionaires, film and rock stars, but this does not shine for us. Gradually it reaches us and enrages, terribly enrages.
    Tyler Durden ("Fight Club")

    Boris Strugatsky: The 20th century for me is a century of dazzling promises and bloody disappointments. Not a panacea for all diseases have been discovered, nor even a remedy for caries, not to mention cancer. Poverty - not won. Utopias are not built. The flight to Mars Korolev attributed to 1990-e years - did not work. Apparently there is no reasonable or even the most primitive life in the Universe. On the nose - the exhaustion of hydrocarbon reserves, the total energy crisis, the return to the beginning of the last century. Paraphrasing Ilf: there are mobile phones, but there is no happiness.

    Excerpt interview with Ray Bradbury:
    - In 1950, you wrote a book that brought you worldwide fame - a collection of stories "Martian Chronicles." It said: by the beginning of the second millennium there will be settlements on Mars, whole cities of earthmen. Why do you think this never happened?
    - I am often asked about this, and I love to dream over the answers. The answer of today: because people - ... They did a lot of stupid things: they invented costumes for dogs, the position of an advertising manager and things like an iPhone, without getting anything in return but a sour aftertaste. Humanity was given the opportunity to surf the cosmos, but it wants to engage in consumption - to drink beer and watch TV shows.
    1. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich April 26 2014 15: 37
      Quote: Sergey Lebedev
      We are the generation of the strongest and smartest people who have ever lived. With potential that is wasted. A whole generation of gas station workers, white-collar waiters. Advertising makes us buy cars and rags. We work hard on hated jobs to buy what we don't need. We are stepsons of history. No purpose, no place.
      I don’t know Seryoga, you yourself betrayed it, or not, but the very essence, you thought about it many times, but you tied them into a bundle, like in an electron beam gun, a projection appeared, but who will see or hear it? request
  5. storm wind
    storm wind April 26 2014 09: 45
    Something is being done, something is not being done .. But the feeling that we are marking time is still felt! The development of solar panels, fusion, effective cures for terrible diseases .. Where? And still instability and war! Let them not be as large as before, but no less dangerous.
    But the hope remains - that someday we will rush forward on some sort of gravitational-spatial engine. We will live for three hundred years. To love, and not only earthly girls but also lovely aliens .. But for this there is still so much hard work and work ..
    Dreams of dreams .. And how do you want them to become a reality now! Tick ​​so hikers fly years old ..
  6. Andrey Yuryevich
    Andrey Yuryevich April 26 2014 10: 06
    More and more people begin to suspect that something is wrong. yes I often think about it, it is quite obvious that the world has begun to degrade. request
    1. And Us Rat
      And Us Rat April 26 2014 11: 52
      Quote: Andrey Yurievich
      More and more people are beginning to suspect that something is wrong, yes I often think about it, it is quite obvious that the world began to degrade ...

      This is a payment for the fact that man went against the laws of nature.
      It all started with the discovery of penecillin (in terms of physiology), and the equalization of the weak and strong through the law (in terms of sociology).

      NATURAL SELECTION DOES NOT WORK - this is a simple and banal reason for the degradation of the world, 70% of the population (painful and not gifted with intellect - "gamma individual") that should not have survived in natural conditions, is preserved artificially by medicine and is protected by law, and therefore survives to the reproductive stage and reproduces (often more readily than viable "alphas").

      With each generation, the quantitative ratio of the population increases not in favor of "alpha individuals", and at times (taking into account the assimilation in the ranks of "gamma individuals").

      The conclusion is simple, if a breakthrough in genetic engineering does not occur before the end of the current generation, which will allow a person to be "repaired" to the level of "alpha individual" during conception and growth ... then it is likely that the next generation will be too tough for this task. Then nature will come into its own - it will thin out the population when it loses its self-preservation skill due to degradation, and starts natural selection again. Of course, for humanity this will be a regression and a rollback of civilization into the past. (It is possible that something like this has already happened in our evolution - the legend about the technologies of ancient Atlantis, there is no smoke without fire)

      The option is more gloomy - we will still be able to put civilization on providing self-sufficient automated systems ... and for the 2-3 generations, we will happily degenerate into drones depending on mechanized nannies with artificial intelligence. (Hello Matrix)
      1. dmit-xnumx
        dmit-xnumx April 26 2014 13: 38
        "But what about Stephen Hawking (a British scientist)? Do you think you have to return to eugenics?"
        1. And Us Rat
          And Us Rat April 27 2014 13: 05
          Quote: dmit-52
          "But what about Stephen Hawking (a British scientist)? Do you think you have to return to eugenics?"

          This will not help, eugenics is pseudoscience; one must lean on genetic engineering and nanotechnology (as an instrument). At least keep the average IQ at 100 for starters.
      2. Andrey Yuryevich
        Andrey Yuryevich April 26 2014 15: 43
        Quote: And Us Rat
        This is a payment for the fact that man went against the laws of nature.

        I completely share your point of view on this issue. hi
      3. fennekRUS
        fennekRUS April 27 2014 19: 20
        NATURAL SELECTION DOES NOT WORK - this is a simple and banal reason for the degradation of the world, 70% of the population (painful and not gifted with intellect - "gamma individual") that should not have survived in natural conditions, is preserved artificially by medicine and is protected by law, and therefore survives to the reproductive stage and reproduces (often more readily than viable "alphas").- Are you ready to die from pneumonia or bronchitis in childhood? with whom I am sure
        1. And Us Rat
          And Us Rat April 27 2014 22: 34
          Quote: fennekRUS
          NATURAL SELECTION DOES NOT WORK - this is a simple and banal reason for the degradation of the world, 70% of the population (painful and not gifted with intellect - "gamma individual") that should not have survived in natural conditions, is preserved artificially by medicine and is protected by law, and therefore survives to the reproductive stage and reproduces (often more readily than viable "alphas").- Are you ready to die from pneumonia or bronchitis in childhood? with whom I am sure

          This was not a criticism, it was a statement of fact. Because of the fact that someone does not like the fact, it never ceases to be a fact. And having snorted indignantly, you also do not change the essence of things, everyone knows how to clog the air.
          Do not like? Not a problem - make your contribution to the development of genetic engineering. For example, I regularly donate to a fund that issues grants to students of biotechnologists and physicists, but what are you doing? (Beyond verbiage, rhetoric, and minus one)
          1. fennekRUS
            fennekRUS April 28 2014 16: 38
            And where did you get that I minus? Essentially not a minus. I contribute to the construction of energy facilities, my profile, my work. I just asked a question - yourself - are you ready to get under the selection? Your rhetoric is gorgeous, but just rhetoric. It’s somehow closer to me to fight regress, for returning to the caves is also not a panacea.
            How many people, so many opinions. On this I propose to shake hands, and disperse in their corners of the ring.
  7. BlackJack
    BlackJack April 26 2014 10: 12
    Washington must be destroyed !!!
    Consumer society is killing our species, our civilization and our planet.
    And I want to look at the stars without pain and longing, with hope, joy and expectation of a meeting.
    Washington must be destroyed !!!
    1. koosss
      koosss April 26 2014 11: 03
      Rothschilds and Rockefellers are to blame.
      1. And Us Rat
        And Us Rat April 26 2014 11: 58
        Quote: koosss
        Rothschilds and Rockefellers are to blame.

        Yes, even Santa Claus !!! am
        Well, they found someone to poke a finger at, feel better ?! Life has become better ?! am
        This is how humanity is divided into HUMANS and DRONES, drones are looking for who is to blame (because it is easier), and a person is looking for WHAT TO DO ... AND DOES !!! (because it is right) am
        Sick of whiners already !!! am
    2. The comment was deleted.
  8. Antokha
    Antokha April 26 2014 10: 12
    Quote: Russian German
    And we will have a station on the moon !!! (see Rogozin's statement) good

    And the quad-core microprocessor "Elbrus-4C ....
    1. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich April 26 2014 15: 41
      Quote: Anton
      Quote: Russian German
      And we will have a station on the moon !!! (see Rogozin's statement) good

      And the quad-core microprocessor "Elbrus-4C ....

      I am happy for us.
  9. Free wind
    Free wind April 26 2014 10: 46
    Progress does not stand still, but it does not and cannot have a powerful vertical lift. After the next breakthrough, there is a period of accumulation of knowledge in science, about the environment and polishing of the knowledge gained. Improvement of the technologies achieved. There will be no new jerk until they make any discovery that changes any physical law. What is happening with us now. This is the improvement of semiconductors: computers, telephones, communications. Perfection ICE, cars. Nuclear energy, airplanes, rockets. No further progress is possible until some new principle is discovered, well, let's say victory over gravity. And where do the Americans come from, I don’t understand. Well, it seems that the damned Americans have stopped inventing. We need to move fundamental science ourselves.
  10. Asan Ata
    Asan Ata April 26 2014 10: 58
    Humanity has become a consumer society. If it is economically viable to mine ruthenium on Mars, we will be there very quickly. However, it is boring to develop only from the needs of the stomach. Spend non-renewable resources to create an iPhone 6,7,8, etc. - a crime against their own children, but who will talk about it if people don’t want to give birth to children already? It seems that humanity, having passed through the pimple phase of its development, has turned into undergrowth with headphones in its ears and a strong desire for doing nothing in the name of doing nothing. But do not you, gentlemen, think that this is either the limit of our biological development, or the limit set by the IMI, who consider us nonsense? drinks Beer for a jerk and vodka for a stroke to everyone this wonderful weekend.
    1. dmit-xnumx
      dmit-xnumx April 26 2014 13: 51
      No, it does not seem: in all centuries new scientific trends appeared, adapted to realities, new "products" were built and produced on their basis (I hate this designation!), After which everything new was "assimilated", scientific trends were taken as postulates, technological innovation due to dogma; society quieted down, rethinking the assimilated and accumulating energy, making the "trunk of Knowledge" stronger, so that new branches and sprouts could not break it with their weight - new Discoveries and Accomplishments. And "make us beautiful!" was, is and will be- "when you knew from what rubbish pearls of verses are born ..."
  11. R-2
    R-2 April 26 2014 11: 29
    And I think that everything that We have just invented is another Step to facilitate the development of the universe by humanity. It’s just that this exploration of the universe will not come to our age.
  12. saag
    saag April 26 2014 11: 43
    Quote: Sergey Lebedev
    Apparently, there is no intelligent or even the most primitive life in the Universe.

    Well, what a pessimist you are, planets find stars in the inhabited zone, nothing is known at the moment what is under the ice in Europe, Tau Ceti is a star like the Sun, what is around it is also not yet known
    Quote: Sergey Lebedev
    On the nose - depletion of hydrocarbon reserves,

    Taking into account the Arctic, this does not threaten in the near future and that is why such projects as earlier aimed at expanding man into space, a kind of progress engine and canceled, it’s much more convenient to get a gesheft from hydrocarbons on earth, hence the consumer society, office plankton and other iPhones ...
  13. Orik
    Orik April 26 2014 12: 26
    winked It depends on what is considered progress! I am afraid humanity is regressing, when viewed from the point of view of the immense human soul. Gadgets will never replace it!
  14. targitai
    targitai April 26 2014 13: 05
    Previously, progress pushed people to master the unknown, but they have mastered the whole earth and that's it, stop great development. Now humanity is developing not in breadth but in depth, from this is the cult of consumerism. But now a new principle of movement in space will be discovered and humanity will again go to the unknown. There will be cities on other planets and "Komsomol" construction sites in other galaxies. And whining about someone interfering (America, Rothschilds, aliens, etc.) is a weakness. Whiners never condemned the poles, did not go out into space and did not make great discoveries.
  15. Nitarius
    Nitarius April 26 2014 14: 07
    Quote: Tektor
    Obviously, after the disappearance of the USSR, the technical revolution died. Everything really new was created by scientists of the Union with the expenditure of enormous resources, but embodied in metal - in the states. It was economically advantageous: to sell the latest development to the west for crumbs, than to wait for years when it falls into the plan, and only what had an analogue in the west fell into the plan.


    here is FLYING AUTO [media = http: //]
  16. Analgin
    Analgin April 26 2014 14: 08
    Quote: Anton
    And we will have a station on the moon !!! (see Rogozin's statement)

    Yeah, Putin, Dmitry Olegovich Kerbal Space Program presented on a steam-acc :) Now he designs ...
  17. sled beach
    sled beach April 26 2014 14: 16
    The stronger the fantasy is tied to reality, the smarter is the person and everyone else travels in time plowing the space EMPTY. In general, fantasy as a spit in the gate of the World, I spat on your greatness, education in my head is much cleaner and more beautiful! - so the creature thinks its only purpose is to consume and continued consumption! We do not create the future but the prevailing circumstances accept us. When one day we cannot resist the circumstances we will not be. Glory to the World and its Greatness.
  18. Zomanus
    Zomanus April 26 2014 14: 25
    Yes, you can have a different approach to one or another aspect of technology development. Only the main thing to consider. It would not have appeared if it had not been claimed by us people. While not a very significant number of people. And the article says that this or that technology was imposed on us. Figs there. It’s just that with the development of new technologies and materials, new opportunities open up, old developments get a new life. And yes, everything went from stone and stick, you can’t argue.
  19. TiT79
    TiT79 April 26 2014 14: 26
    Take a look at yourself and answer honestly: if everything is fine (money pays at work, children grow up, a new car is planned, an apartment is planned), then what's the point of putting yourself at risk and trying to make your life not just better, but two or three orders of magnitude better, at the risk of losing everything (which is gained by excessive labor, by the way) ??? !!! Another thing is when there is no normal work, it is time to get married, I want a new car - only then a person leaves a comfortable zone and tries to radically change something.
    All the so-called engines of progress were associated with the fact that a person was uncomfortable in this state or this condition was put at risk of complete disappearance (destruction) (here I mean breakthroughs in the field of weapons, etc.) probably with the animal world happening, happening!
    Another thing is why those who manage us artificially hinder the improvement of technologies and new discoveries. I don’t think they don’t have enough brains to keep the whole mass under control after the introduction of this or that know-how. It seems to me that they are also under control, but the "Those" managers just do not want human improvement, they probably have their own plans for a herd of stupid earthlings ...
  20. rotor
    rotor April 26 2014 14: 38
    The XNUMXst century turned out to be completely different from the forecasts of fifty years ago. There are no intelligent robots, no flying cars, no cities on other planets.

    The 3st century has just begun. Intelligent robots need powerful miniature computers; the powers of the latter are not yet sufficient for obvious intelligence. When intelligent robots appear, it will be possible to explore space. But flying cars - convertiplanes, already exist, it remains only to make them cheaper, for example by printing them on a XNUMX-D printer.
    1. rotor
      rotor April 27 2014 13: 56
      Moller skycar
  21. Monster_Fat
    Monster_Fat April 26 2014 14: 42
    Crises arise not only because of the "instability" of macroeconomic indicators, as they like to say now. Nobody has canceled the Marxist theory of market oversaturation. But in fact, everything depends, in simple words, on the fact that society is gorged, satiated and stops wanting. The hobbyists are all full and there is nothing more to wish for, this is the cause of the crisis, and this is observed at all levels of society. That is, the rich already have everything and lazily toss and turn only to devour their neighbors, and even then everything has already been agreed and the markets are divided. want, well, one more villa or a small yacht, somehow, it's not interesting. The middle class has already had housing, fashionable cars. devices travel to the Canary Islands, etc., again, it's not interesting. Everything is there. But only the proletarians are struggling in need trying to get children, to make ends meet, but nobody is interested in them because they are units, consumables.To move society forward, you need to interest the rich stratum in something new, to show that new "peaks" are availablein the progress of the type-flying and floating cities, underwater settlements, etc. That is, if they are interested and the first successes appear, they will drag science and progress and everyone else along with them. For example, flying cities are no longer a fantasy. Already there was information about the creation of a fairly cheap hydrogen nano-sponge, elastic and non-combustible from which it is quite possible to build whole flying cities. It is only necessary to develop this technology and bring it to an industrial scale. The same applies to the rest, at first glance, "exotic" Wishlist.
  22. ruslan207
    ruslan207 April 26 2014 14: 49
    This is a car!
  23. Ustian
    Ustian April 26 2014 17: 46
    So much for the physical manifestation of the theory of cyclicity ...
  24. Moore
    Moore April 26 2014 18: 03
    At least, then surely no one will come to complain that progress has ended. It’s not over, it’s just not going where you thought it was.

    Yes, not there. Just did not go, but he was sent there akuratnenko. Judge for yourselves, what is the use of power to those who hold colonization of the Moon or Mars? Money down the drain.
    It is much more profitable to give loot on the most primitive human instincts: satiation, reproduction, fear and, of course, domination. If you have a toilet bowl that greets you and says goodbye, you are incomparably cooler than the one who does not have such a device. Advertising will not lie ...
    Efremov was right: only in a communist society that educates a human creator, interstellar flights are possible - well, and that's all we were waiting for ...
  25. saygon66
    saygon66 April 26 2014 18: 12
    - The development of technologies to the level at which everyone has everything will lead to the elimination of property inequality, which in turn will lead to the collapse of the foundations of society management: Those in power rule the poor, and there was only one more or less successful attempt to change the existing state of things - socialist public system.
    - Medicines for tooth decay, baldness and cancer, cheap housing, a good education - all this undermines the current system of managing people. Is this why the entertaining-fooling, pseudo-educational technologies are rapidly developing.
    - Take a look, to fly to the Moon or Mars, you need funds to get them, you need to convince potential sponsors of the profitability of the project, and not in the distant future, but preferably immediately ...
    - Profit rules the world ... sadly ...
  26. saag
    saag April 26 2014 18: 23
    Quote: Moore
    Efremov was right: only in a communist society that educates a human creator, interstellar flights are possible - well, and that's all we were waiting for ...

    Everything is correct, the crisis of the idea of ​​society, or rather its absence, and in its absence, a person loses the incentive to create, the landmarks become shaky and incorrect, it becomes more habitual to consume, this is already such a template, the stereotype of behavior and the brain need not be strained for an act. To return what was lost, it is necessary to reanimate the communist idea, the construction of an ideal society, what a communist society can be, in which a person is a creator, a supreme creator, and his goals are global, now many will write that communism is a utopia, the fact is that this is a goal, with a great the letter "C", going to it you can move mountains, which has already been confirmed in history. Anyway, nothing better has been invented yet, and so on. history loves to repeat itself at every turn of its development, then I think it will repeat itself, the main thing here is not to fall into a farce.
  27. Jurkovs
    Jurkovs April 26 2014 20: 40
    I advise everyone who has not read to read Stanislav Lem's novel Return from the Stars. Fifty years ago, he described what is just beginning to emerge today. Not in the sense of technology, but in the sense of being human.
  28. gridasov
    gridasov April 26 2014 21: 25
    People should pay attention to what is the basis of their worldview and industrialization. Linear thinking and the basics of mechanical transformation are always in the same relationship.
  29. sled beach
    sled beach April 27 2014 00: 05
    The progress is driven by LOVE, which has nothing to do with fantasy. Fantasy is the destiny of profane people. Professionals thought up fairy tales and then wonder how it is, but no one even thinks that life is extremely non-linear and most importantly irreversible thing. Fantasy is like an exercise bike, but you’re pedaling but all one thing is standing still. It’s not for nothing that they say that the forecast is ignoble because we don’t own the situation, but it’s us. Modern human kings, human gods like God with a higher sense of existence are like arrogant rabbits — a miserable sight! Glory to the World and his greatness.
  30. nstarinsky
    nstarinsky April 27 2014 02: 19
    The reasons raised in the article lie in the education-science-culture system. It's easier for me to talk about fundamental science, since I am a nuclear physicist. In the past, revolutions in physics took place at a fairly constant interval of 25-50 years. And some physicists today indicate that stagnation in science has been going on for about 75-80 years. The mistake here is that the expectation of a revolution in science is wrong. Science has just begun over the past 300 years. The phenomena she studied were in some sense on the surface. Now science is in adolescence. New phenomena (namely, they "push" science forward!) Are much more difficult to discover today. They lie at a much deeper level. There is progress. But to expect some kind of periodicity is the insanity of ignorance. Science today needs a good education for children. And it, just all over the world is in a complete ass. Education in the late USSR was an example of what it should be. And it should be on full and first-priority state subsidies. There should be a queue and competition for a teacher. And here it is vegetation. Take a look at the result - with what mistakes people began to write on the Internet. About space flights. Once I managed to ask a question to one of the Russian cosmonauts - why the hell are we sitting in Earth's orbit? And he answered - and the hell knows why! Large space is not just big money. This is HUGE money. As long as the economy works for the oligarch's pocket, there will be no money (sorry - BIG MONEY !!!). And what the whole world thinks out, you can only sit in orbit and spit into space with small satellites with even less significant robots. Until the United States and the EU mature and understand that the world needs peace, money (oh, sorry - HUGE MONEY !!!!) will be the very toilet paper that we love to save up for another gadget ...
  31. Camouflet
    Camouflet April 27 2014 03: 41
    In general, I agree with the article. At the same time, it should be noted that in the 60s and in the 70s there was what is called "dizziness from success." All sorts of "futurists", popularizers and even scientists believed that they saw through the future and unreasonably determined that progress has almost exponential growth. All these atomic planes, flying cars, settlements at the bottom of the ocean, unlimited energy sources, life for 500 years, flights already x. he knows how far away, etc. - all this is idle chatter. Read the predictions of the same Asimov - no x. did not come true.

    But because worthless predictors. Even the seemingly uncomplicated problem of developing thermonuclear fusion turned out to be much more complicated than they imagined. But nuclear powered airplanes and flying cars turned out to be nonsense.

    Progress is cyclical. The phase of the development of science, when great discoveries could be made in your kitchen with the help of chopsticks and ropes, has long passed. They raked everything that lay on the surface. Each next step is and will be given by ever greater costs of both mental energy and money. Well, and time.
    Let us hope that the current period of accumulation of information and technologies is coming to an end, followed by a new concrete mover.
  32. Vladimir 23rus
    Vladimir 23rus April 27 2014 07: 59
    And on Mars you want a ticket fellow Why don’t you say, they pissed the future. Changed to an iPhone and a warm toilet with the ability to connect this iPhone to the Internet
  33. cucun
    cucun April 27 2014 10: 13
    The engine of progress, alas, only war ... (or its threat).
  34. capex1
    capex1 April 27 2014 11: 15
    US will never have flying cars and trips to Mars for the reason that by then we will destroy ourselves!
  35. The comment was deleted.
    1. And Us Rat
      And Us Rat April 27 2014 13: 36
      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      Where is the fusion?

      2014 - works on the foundation of the future tokamak building (on the ITER website it is called the Tritium Building), the construction of the Cryostat Building, the creation of tokamak units, training for the delivery of the largest reactor parts from the port of Bere to the construction site.

      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      Where is the cold fusion?

      There is currently no convincing evidence for the existence of this phenomenon.

      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      Where is man’s flight to Mars?

      Inspiration Mars Foundation is an American non-profit organization (foundation), founded by Dennis Tito, planning to send a manned expedition in January 2018 for flying around Mars.

      Mars One (Rus. Mars-one) is a private project, led by Bas Lansdorp and involving a flight to Mars with the subsequent establishment of a colony on its surface and broadcasting everything that happens on television.
      At the beginning of 2014, Mars One began preparing the landing module, which will go to Mars as part of the first phase of the first private mission. And to implement the first phase of the entire program, Mars One brought in the well-known Lockheed Martin company as a partner in creating the first prototype of the landing module.

      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      Where are the inhabited stations on the moon?

      A special program for the exploration of the moon by South Korea has begun, which includes the development of basic technologies aimed at the formation in the long term of an inhabited station on the moon.
      The development of key areas includes the creation of technologies necessary for the construction of a spacecraft, a lunar rover and a space station in deep space.

      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      Where are victories over diseases?

      The University of Jerusalem said on Thursday that researchers at the School of Medicine have identified a process in which tumor cells become resistant to certain drugs ...

      The survivor of a serious motorcycle accident underwent an innovative face restoration operation using a series of three-dimensional implants of different parts of the skull ...

      Scientists were able to create artificial donor blood
      After years of research, scientists were able to get artificially made blood, which is ready for transfusion ...

      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      Instead - gadgets-fucking ... jets.

      Stephen Horng from Beth Israel Deaconess Medical Center in Boston was able to appreciate the advantage of Google Glass points. Thanks to them, he saved the life of a patient who had a brain hemorrhage.
      Dr. Horng instantly found the necessary information and started the operation.
  36. progserega
    progserega April 27 2014 12: 10
    Comrades, it seems to me that the point is not that progress has stopped, but what our social system is. We build a capitalist one. Its task is to accumulate wealth. Means - let's say even production (let's omit the service sector). Acceleration of accumulation - acceleration of capital turnover. All. Hence the consequences: education of the cult of consumerism, disposable things, etc. Capitalism, as a form of society, in principle, cannot pose large-scale tasks. Tasks that don't pay off in the short or medium-term. That is, for example, such tasks as helping a neighbor (a country or a hypothetical other planet (see "It is difficult to be a god" by the Strugatskys or the same "Inhabited Island") are in principle unrealizable - there must be a benefit, profit. aid "is possible only as an element of colonization or market expansion. In our country, not pure capitalism. It is partially leveled by statehood. Where capitalism has practically won, the future of capitalist society is more visible.

    To understand this, you can look at the IT sphere - this is a hypertrophied complex system of crutches and supports, overgrown with more and more new superstructures. Nobody changes it, because there are NO tasks for which it needs to be changed. 1C already works, sites show content as it is - why give up all this heap of "technologies" - they "work"! There is no task of creating a single planetary computing environment that would be "sharpened" for each user. Although such systems have already been created (Plan9, Inferno), they are simply not needed by anyone - "everything works anyway".

    The second example is transport. Let's say jeeps or touring motorcycles. They were before. New models are now "SUVs". These are comfortable "pop carriages" with elements of the former functionality. Jeepers and avid motorcycle tourists mourn the old days.

    The question is precisely in the tasks set by society. These tasks are performed by the industry. If these are the tasks of building a base on the moon, optimizing costs on earth and rational existence of society in order to release the forces of mankind into space, then the result will be exactly what you want. For example, in IT, all that written rubbish will simply be removed, the paradigm "once written, always used" will be applied. The program is like a brick from which you can build any building. The software must be written, run and not require maintenance, bloated IT staff, updates, rewriting, revolutions in form but not in essence.

    A change in the social system will change the person himself. I am not talking about USSR 2.0 in Kurginyansky. The USSR perished, because the system was such that it brought opportunists into control. Those. in the very logic of the social system the mechanisms of its collapse were laid.

    The new social order should be based on the principle of social selection of the best representatives. Those. "social elevators" must be placed at the forefront of the social structure of society. Mechanisms for renewing the entire governing body (the head of the body) should be clearly defined. There is no clannishness or appointment "from above", only a gradual "emergence" of the best representatives "from the localities."

    It seems to me that reasonable ideas of this are outlined in the work of "neurosoc". Where the main principle was election "from below". Those. the tenants choose the head of the house from among the tenants, the heads of the houses - the head of the street (from the heads of houses), the heads of the streets - the mayor (from the heads of streets), etc. Re-election - at any time, dismissal and replacement - only from below.

    (I apologize for the long comment, but I decided to voice the maximum of the Korolev chain: "If you don't like it - criticize, criticize - offer, suggest - do, do - take responsibility.")
  37. sled beach
    sled beach April 27 2014 12: 26
    And what will change from traveling to Mars and flying cars!? Only that it will be necessary to find new dreams, fantasies. An irritated mind is a storm in Stockan. Nobody wants to be a part of the world; everyone wants to be at the head of his bobazhka and progress.
    1. progserega
      progserega April 27 2014 15: 43
      Quote: Sanya Beach
      And what will change from traveling to Mars and flying cars!? Only that it will be necessary to find new dreams, fantasies. An irritated mind is a storm in Stockan. Nobody wants to be a part of the world; everyone wants to be at the head of his bobazhka and progress.

      If you imagine that Man is a cup that is filled with life experience, wisdom, then the breadth of views of society and its members is the scope for realizing the meaning of people's lives.
      If we drive a person into the shell of consumption, narrow down his worldview to the size of gadgets, make him a hostage of his pleasures, then we will at least impede the development of mankind in its spiritual plan.
  38. lestrigon
    lestrigon April 27 2014 17: 31
    War, as well as laziness, is the engine of progress. In recent years, there could have been no major war, and therefore progress has focused on improving remote controls, jacuzzi bathtubs and china bidets.
    Following the collapse of the Union, the West has nowhere to strive. As in sports - there is no rival, why run away?
    Remember the idealistic books and films of the 50s - 70s ...
    The world government, which is now in power, is not at all profitable to fly to the moon and Mars, and even more so to build space stations. Now even equipment and cars are specially made short-lived so that consumer demand does not fall.
    If you think that there are no technologies in the world capable of moving progress forward, you are mistaken (I advise you to get acquainted with the works of the writer M. Kalashnikov and his co-authors) - it's just that the "world behind the scenes" is extremely unprofitable and it puts these developments on the back burner.
  39. mrDimkaP
    mrDimkaP April 27 2014 19: 45
    The fact is that now the economy rules the world ... Flying into space does not pay off, but the new iPhone is very even. You can build a supersonic passenger plane, but we still wait for documents for several hours or days ...
    Moreover, they are ruining the real economy, remember at least a twofold increase in the GDP of Nigeria.
  40. progserega
    progserega April 28 2014 06: 56
    Quote: mrDimkaP
    The fact is that now the economy rules the world ...

    Economics economy is different. And what is the economy in the context of society - this is just a tool. The tool cannot edit. People, communities of people united by interests rule. The concept of social structure imposes the rules of the game.
    Quote: lestrigon
    Now even equipment and cars are specially made short-lived so that consumer demand does not fall.

    Somehow I was described a model of current problems and the causes of the crisis. In fact, I then realized that I did not understand what a crisis is and why it is.
  41. progserega
    progserega April 28 2014 06: 57
    I will share it. This will not be interesting for someone, but for someone like me at the time, it may help to understand:
    1. The capitalist has production. Produces, say, 10 cans of stew. Sells. The profit earned for 8 cans goes to the workers (this also includes the payment for materials, since this is also the work of the workers in the final analysis). The profit for 2 banks goes to the capitalist. Let's say a third he spends on yachts and mansions, 2/3 adds to the bank.
    2. Workers, having received a salary, go to buy stew. The problem is that they only have money for 8 cans. They buy 8 cans - this is the drop in demand. They physically have no money to buy more than 8 cans (more precisely, 8 + 1/3 expenses for yachts, but this is not essential).
    3. At the next iteration, the capitalist sells 8 cans instead of 10, takes profit from 1,5 banks for himself, the remaining 6,5 to workers. Further - in the following cycles, everything only worsens.
    4. You can try to reduce costs - replace workers with robots, fire workers, but the problem is that "demand will fall", but not because no one wants to buy goods, but because people do not have the funds ...
    5. And then banks come to the aid of the capitalists with their loans. Which allow workers to buy 10 cans, even if their salary is only 8 cans. Those. buy today what you can't buy tomorrow. Eat "tomorrow" today.
    6. The system continues to work and everyone is "happy" until the percentage of payments on loans exceeds some insane figure and people still stop buying. But not because they do not want to, but because they cannot (this is important).
    7. A "crisis" is coming. The capitalists are very sad that their profits are starting to fall. Here the same two jars would be given to the workers, but it's a pity ... That's why "plan B" is used.
    8. Plan "B". "CRISISIIS !!!" - shout at every corner. He "came"! By itself, of course, because this "property" is such - regular crises. The world is so arranged and "nobody knows why." The government enters the scene and begins to "help".
    9. The help may consist in simply pouring money to banks, which lower the rates of credits for the population and businesses in order to continue the banquet. After a few turns, the money again settles in the hands of the capitalists and again "a crisis comes".
    10. The government itself begins to create demand by forming a state order. For large construction sites (roads, infrastructure, etc.), paying well for these orders.
    11. The capitalists "stick" to state orders and begin to live from them. Money has flowed, workers have wages again (maybe they even hire additional workers), etc. The process "started", the crisis "receded". Things are good". It's clear that everything is fine as long as there are these orders. And it's good only for those who "sucked" to them. In fact, the cycle starts again with 10 = 8 + 2, 8 = 6,5 + 1,5, etc.
    12. Capitalists and corporations are beginning to permeate, merge with the state apparatus, which forms tasks in order to influence the "state order".
    13. The aspirations of the capitalists are worth mentioning. They still want to monetize their savings, buying up everything that is bad for them. At a certain stage in a particular country, everything becomes bought up. Begins to buy up in other countries, but there are their own capitalists and they may not want to sell their tidbit. And this is where the "state order" can help ...
    14. Capitalists begin to push through "state orders" that are beneficial to themselves. Military government orders. This is both a large profit "here" and the ability of the state's military machine to monetize its accumulations at the expense of the property of capitalists from destroyed neighboring countries.

    As a result, the logic of capitalism itself leads (and previously led) to war. What we observe in the world.
    The described scheme is easy to trace throughout the United States. But other kap.starny go to her.
    1. lestrigon
      lestrigon April 28 2014 17: 30
      good progserega
      -You were not too lazy (like me) to dissipate all the "charm" of capitalism.
  42. progserega
    progserega April 28 2014 07: 15
    Of course, in the previous post, I did not mention that the intermediate option is "expanding sales markets", minimizing costs for production costs, artificial aging of goods in order to speed up the turnover of funds and profit. As a consequence of this - additional problems with the environment, energy problems, because there is not enough energy for the constantly accelerating flywheel of production and consumption. And it is "necessary" to speed up it, because it is necessary to give loans, which are used not only by workers, but also by enterprises. Those. "tomorrow" you need to make even more profits than today - otherwise you will not give the loan.
    But in principle, these additions do not change the scheme described above. Rather, they are just tools to "prolong the feast of capitalism."

    Those. in the capitalist model of social structure, in principle, peace and progressive development are not possible. This is a system that is becoming obsolete. Burying herself and humanity with herself. To a certain extent, the state can restrain the appetites of corporations, but this is a temporary process that depends on a specific person (group of persons) in power, its principles. Individuals and groups leave and come, but the system of capitalist society and way of life remains and moves progressively towards its end. At the end, even the apologists of this system paint pure fascism, a decrease in the population, the curtailment of capitalism as such, the reduction of society to a planned slave-fascist structure with clannishness and total control. Those. total consolidation and "legalization" of their power in the new social order.
  43. Landwarrior
    Landwarrior April 28 2014 11: 47
    Everything was simple - science went forward by leaps and bounds when there was a rivalry between the Soviet and Western systems, when no one wanted to lose, they created new weapons, and in parallel opened up new civil or dual-use technologies. In the 90s, after the collapse of the USSR, the West began to compete with no one, we all settled down and the world froze on the spot. hi
  44. Diviz
    Diviz April 28 2014 19: 17
    how many years there is life on earth and how many people exist this is worth considering.
  45. i80186
    i80186 April 28 2014 19: 34
    Yes, the problem of progress in the spirit of what is desired in 60-70 is only one - the lack of a small-sized, safe and cheap source of energy, which at the same time has a large specific power. Well, it is considered dangerous to use nuclear feeders - radioisotope energy sources, nuclear reactors. Moreover, nuclear reactors are considered dangerous even for launching into space. That's why we are not flying to Mars.
    1. Logos
      Logos April 30 2014 19: 29
      One such source of energy in the form of an isotope generator on a Soviet satellite already somehow fell in Canada - fortunately /, in an uninhabited area. The use of even stationary reactors is dangerous (Chernobyl, Fukushima), it was not enough for them to fly over our heads.
      1. lestrigon
        lestrigon 2 May 2014 16: 34
        if everyone thought like you, then a person with fright and a fire would not have lit ...
  46. Edvid
    Edvid 9 May 2014 02: 56
    The current model without a supporting propulsion (alternative to jet) will appear in 2014 in Russia. This is a technological breakthrough for five hundred years ahead ...
  47. megalasta
    megalasta 18 August 2014 18: 55
    I don't want to frighten anyone, but in the ancient oriental esoteric books the age of machines is called "Kali-yuga" - the last of the four centuries of civilization, after which civilization disappears. Similarly, Atlantis disappeared, the remains of which we see in the pyramids scattered around the world. And as for all those fig iPhones, iPads, heaps of laptops, etc., this is not progress, this is regression. Because count how many different programs are in the laptop. Yes, its support and modification will require hundreds of thousands, if not millions of specialists, 90% of whom do not fully know how it works. And those who know do not understand application-level programs. So it turns out that instead of using these specialists for, say, the development of the nearest inhabited planets in space, their intelligence goes into a trinket, the value of which is highly questionable. But these people still need to be fed and clothed, the father-in-law and for them someone is idle. And the result is a domino effect. To create a multistage rocket Korolev-Tsialkovsky, no computers were needed, only mechanical automation. The first planes also flew without these sophisticated computers, and the number of plane crashes, please note, did not noticeably decrease, etc. etc. So judge where humanity has gone: there or not.
  48. megalasta
    megalasta 18 August 2014 19: 00
    Quote: blizart
    Just at the dawn of the rocket era, we all dreamed about space. For example, with my beloved girl, I dreamed of flying on an expedition with a generational change to Proxima Centauri love. What do today's teenagers dream of, I don’t know, some kind of connection was interrupted, it seems for generations

    I dreamed about the same in childhood :)
  49. Tishka
    Tishka 27 February 2015 16: 26
    Of course, I wildly apologize, but I had to live in the USSR, then I worked, not only for a salary, but simply, with bare enthusiasm, for the sake of my country and people, perhaps this was said in a pompous way, but it was special chic to create something that did not were able to create others. and no one, for the most part, counted on orders and medals, and on awards too. but created masterpieces! And in that capitalist society into which we were shoved, monetary reward is put at the forefront, without it, they won’t take a step and they won’t hit a finger! Perhaps we would be glad to strike. but fear responsibility, any question. it is decided by agreement with the bosses, no initiative, because you have to answer for it, or they can fire you, but you want to eat and eat well. And this, in many respects, is the fault of education, children are not taught to think, they are taught according to the template, even the introduction of a single exam is reduced to the fact that it is necessary to correctly check the boxes, crosses and pluses, and not the ability to defend one's opinion in a dialogue. So the ideal society of consumers who do not know how to think and take responsibility has grown. and to solve those new tasks that are set before them, alas, civilization is degrading and degrading. with great speed, despite the visible successes. in individual industries. which are sharpened to increase consumption, and where, do not think!