Military Review

Scenarios of a possible military conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States: commentary to the article of the INF Committee Valery Alekseev

72



The Russian International Affairs Council (INF), chaired by former Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, continues his expert work. October 21 The 2013 of the year on its information resource published an expert analysis of the nuclear disarmament problem by Andrei Zagorsky, head of the IMEMO RAS department and MGIMO professor. For "strengthening the security of Russia", Zagorsky proposed, under a possible future agreement with the United States, to eliminate ballistic missiles and the Strategic Missile Forces.

The next day, i.e., October 22, the INF Committee published the material of another expert, Valeriy Alekseev, entitled "Is war possible with America? ". Alekseev argues that in the coming 10-15 years, a Russian-American military conflict is likely to occur. So, during two days, the RIAC offered diametrically different scenarios of a possible and plausible future in the security sphere of our country. measures to eliminate the traditional Russian security tool, and then another RIAC expert speaks about a very likely war with the United States in the near foreseeable future. There is a legitimate question: why should a country disarm, if the military danger is growing? Therefore, we immediately note that the predictions of the future are a very sensitive issue, and the diametrically opposed scenarios of the near future are a reflection of our crisis time. Possible bifurcation points that occur in such epochs make any predictions for the next decade rather uncertain.

And, nevertheless, the alarmist forecast of Valery Alekseev is of interest, if only because it is about the ultimate means of resolving a political conflict - war. We note right away that the military scenario of the near future is generally present in the materials of the Russian expert community. A series of Arab revolutions, the creation of a belt of instability and, in particular, the civil war in Syria, burdened by foreign intervention, gave rise to the scenario of the future spread of the belt of instability in the underbelly of Russia in Central Asia and in the Russian Federation in the North Caucasus and the Volga region. It is obvious that the military scenario in this version was fueled by the experience of two Chechen wars and the counterterrorist operation in the North Caucasus. But she didn’t have time to relieve tensions in Syria, as the ethnic conflict in Biryulyovo in Moscow gave rise to the alarmist forecasting of some future war on the territory of Russia between the "indigenous" population and the migrants.

In contrast to these scenarios of the “chaos wars,” Alekseev predicts the likelihood of a local military conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States using regular armed forces on both sides. The conditions for this alleged military confrontation, as defined by Alexeev, are as follows:

- The military conflict between the United States and the Russian Federation takes place in a certain peripheral area far from the center;

- the clash between the USA and the Russian Federation is mediated by some third force acting on the side of the Americans, i.e., the military conflict of the Russian Federation and the USA has an indirect character. The latter circumstance does not exclude the entry of the US into military operations in the final phase;

- military actions will be conducted on the basis of conventional weapons, which, however, does not exclude the possibility of a limited use of nuclear weapons at some point in the conflict weapons.

The war, as is well known, by the classical definition is a continuation of politics by other means, therefore each of the parties to the conflict pursues its own goals in the conflict. The United States is creating conditions for destabilization of the Russian Federation and changes in the world order, which is currently a continuation of the Yalta-Potsdam system. Russia - legitimization in the eyes of the public of the social system that emerged after 1991, and the continuation of the dialogue with the United States based on their own interests. Speech of the third party to the conflict on the side of the United States does not exclude the fact that he pursues his own interests in it. Thus, it is obvious that for the model of a hypothetical future military conflict, the RIAC expert used the five-day war between Russia and Georgia in August 2008, which, in fact, was an indirect military conflict between the United States and Russia. Unlike the 2008 events of the year, Alekseev believes that the new military conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States will be longer and more bloody. A possible military conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States will not develop into an all-out war. However, it can lead to such results that each of the parties to the conflict will declare its results his victory.

When considering the underlying causes of a possible military conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States, Alekseev proceeds from the position that, until now, peaceful Russian-American relations are going around in a circle, giving no advantage to any of the parties. After 20 years after the liquidation of the USSR, "the leaders of Russia and the United States are discussing, in fact, the same problems as at the end of 1980's: reducing the intensity of confrontational rhetoric, resuming arms control negotiations, and establishing economic contacts." The existing permanent confrontation between Moscow and Washington, Alekseev believes, is fraught with military conflict with a high probability of its realization. The cause of the conflict is the growth of real contradictions, although, from our point of view, this is not obvious. It’s just that neither side is currently able to solve its basic geopolitical and strategic goals on the Eurasia continent, so the struggle has assumed a positional character based on the time factor.

After 1990, the United States announced its intention to create a new world order. However, the existing conditions mean the realization in the world of only informal American leadership. Despite the collapse of the bipolar system, the basic principles of the Yalta-Potsdam order remain in the world. The structure of world governance has not changed, in which the leading role is still formally owned by the UN, or more precisely, by the UN Security Council, whose permanent members are legitimized by the outcome of the Second World War. The objective reasons for the Russian-American confrontation are the existence of the Russian military potential capable of technically destroying the United States and the ability of the Russian Federation to block the decisions of the Americans through the UN Security Council. Russia does not recognize American leadership. Under these conditions, Alekseev believes, without solving the "Russian problem" the United States cannot implement its project for a global world order. Russia is initiating formal and informal coalitions designed to block US policy. In addition, Russia is pursuing a commercial policy independent of the United States in the field of military technology exports. It acts as a technology donor for countries wishing to build power capabilities to counter Washington. Starting a new round of tensions, Alekseev believes 1994 is the year when the administration of President Clinton realized that the task of disarming Russia could not be quickly resolved. From that moment on, the Russian regime became hostile to Washington. Since the beginning of 2000, the situation has only worsened. However, the growth of authoritarianism in Russia cannot be the cause of confrontation, the INFRM expert believes, because the USA regularly cooperates with regimes much more authoritarian than Putin’s Russia to achieve its goals.

Since the mid 1990-s, the United States has been trying to influence the Russian political system by creating a negative image of our country as an authoritarian and criminal state. In Europe, Americans are promoting countermeasures to the policies of Russian energy companies. In Russia, they finance the opposition in attempts to promote candidates favored by the US and study the potential of separatist tendencies in Russia.

The US’s rejection of the second term of Vladimir Putin’s presidency stems from the fact that the Russian president is not making concessions to the Americans on their disarmament agenda, and with the realization that it’s impossible to change the Russian regime in the foreseeable future through non-systemic opposition actions. The US response was a tightening of policies towards Russia in various forms.

In such a situation, according to the RIAC Alekseev expert, the United States has an interest in defeating the Kremlin in a regional military conflict. However, Russia in such a conflict will not be the passive victim of American politics like Yugoslavia, Iraq or Syria. Under certain conditions, the very logic of Russian foreign policy can contribute to the emergence of this kind of conflict, says Alekseev. Russian foreign policy strategies are associated with the instability of its internal political system. The Russian leadership managed to preserve the territorial integrity of the country. However, the problem of the division of property has not yet been solved and is not legitimized in the eyes of the country's population. In the mass consciousness of the inhabitants of the regions, nostalgia for the Soviet past is widespread. In such a situation, the Russian government needs foreign policy successes that serve as a form of its legitimation. The political crisis at the turn of the 2011-2012 years showed a decline in the legitimacy of the current Russian leadership. Under these conditions, forcing Washington to engage in dialogue with the Kremlin requires either a drastic weakening of the US position, or an impressive force demonstration. The ideal solution could be the victory of Russia in a regional conflict. Inside Russia, the “common test” will finally make it possible to draw a line under the collapse of the USSR and the privatization of the 1990s.

* * *

The RSMD expert Alekseev lists the possible scenarios of a military conflict: "the third Russian-Japanese war," the "Arctic war," "the Far Eastern war," etc. Here it should be immediately noted that the author of the article in question leaves the crisis points in the CIS behind the brackets of the military conflict. He believes that “the collision of the Russian and American armed forces is theoretically possible in such conflict points of the CIS as the Crimea, the Black Sea, and the Transcaucasus. However, such a conflict will not allow Moscow or Washington to solve the underlying political problems. For Russia, victory in it will look too much obvious, and for the United States - will raise the question of escalation. " Obviously, the "five-day war" 2008 of the year drew a line under the possibility of military adventures of this kind. Alekseev writes that "theoretically, the most realistic proving ground is: unrest in Belarus caused by its possible exit from the Union State," but for some reason is silent about the conflict potential of Ukraine. These scenarios do not give a “third interested party” who will initiate this kind of conflict from the United States. Should Poland not be considered as such? Therefore, the escalation of the military conflict around the Kaliningrad region is doubtful due to the presentation of territorial claims on it by Poland or Germany, or the appearance of separatist sentiments in it, which will be supported by the EU. Alekseev writes about the conflict potential of the problem of the status of the Russian-speaking population in Estonia and Latvia. However, in this situation, the initiative of the conflict must again come from the Balts.

The Alexeyev’s proposed scenario of the US-Russia Pacific conflict is also problematic, since there is no “third concerned” in it. The conflict in this version will take the form of a direct collision between the United States and the Russian Federation. In this capacity, he does not meet the basic conditions of a hypothetical collision. "An additional source of conflict may be the Americans' support for separatist tendencies in the Far East," Alekseev said when considering this option. But where are these Far Eastern separatists, we ask, when considering this option? Real separatist movements on the outskirts of Russia can manifest themselves only in a situation of weakening the center - in a state where it will not be able to wage external wars for sure.

Alekseev’s proposed scenario of the Arctic War is also doubtful. The IMIT expert believes that Canada could be the “third concerned”. “Between Russia and Canada, the conflict over the status of the North Pole persists. For Russia, squeezing small Canadian groups from the Russian sector (perhaps after a tense air battle) will look like a“ won victory, ”writes the INF Committee. Such an option is at least ridiculous Potential hostile Russia "Canadian groups" have nowhere to gain a foothold in the Arctic, except on drifting ice. For this kind of conflict in the Arctic there are no any disputed island territories.

Of all the considered and, as we believe, unrealistic scenarios, there remains one option that has been sufficiently worked out by an expert. Alekseev believes that the Russian-Japanese territorial dispute is an ideal testing ground for a military clash between the Russian Federation and the United States. For Russia, Japan is a strong adversary, possessing, if not equality, then even superiority in surface navy at the Pacific theater of operations. However, the factor of Russian aviation, especially for strategic purposes, makes Moscow’s ultimate victory undoubted, the RSMD expert believes. In the indicated conflict, the “third party concerned” is also represented. In Japan itself, there are forces that may be interested in defeating their country in order to eliminate dependence on the United States and gain full sovereignty and create full-fledged armed forces. If Washington and Tokyo have an alliance treaty of 1960, the Russo-Japanese war will look like a manifestation of US weakness if they do not enter the war. For the United States, conflict can also play a positive role. Washington’s intervention at the final stage can be presented as evidence of the effectiveness of American power and the inability of the Allies to solve problems without the participation of the United States, as well as stopping and even discarding "Russian expansion," Alekseev concludes.

In favor of the "Japanese scenario", the blocking of negotiations between Moscow and Tokyo on the territorial issue testifies. The Russian side’s purchase of Mistral-class amphibious assault ships from France shows where Moscow sees the main naval theater of military operations.

However, we note that the position of Tokyo is crucial for this hypothetical version of the new Russian-Japanese war. It is the Japanese who should provoke this war. Note that in our political science fiction literature, the variant of the victorious Russian-Japanese war for Russia was spelled out in an artistic action movie in the alternative genre. stories Evgenia Sartinova "Last Empire" 1998 of the Year. In the course of the novel, Japan landed its troops on the disputed islands of the Kuril chain Kunashir and Iturup. The Japanese in 90 number of thousands of bayonets entrenched on the islands, entrenched themselves and began to wait from the sea for the Russian troops to bleed him. Ready to intervene in the conflict at any time, the strike force of the US Pacific Fleet, headed by the aircraft carrier Admiral Chester Nimitz, plied in neutral waters, claiming the role of arbitrator. As a result of the whole action, the Russian Tu-22M dropped a megaton thermonuclear bomb from transcendental heights on Kunashir. After that, the Japanese prime minister responsible for the beginning of the war in Tokyo made himself a hara-kiri, and the Russian leadership "generously" donated Iturup and Kunashir to Japan that turned into radioactive rocks. The peace treaty with Japan was never signed, America insisted, but the war was over. Two weeks later, a truce was signed in Seoul. Recall that we are not talking about the plans of the General Staff, but about fantasies on the subject of a hypothetical new Russian-Japanese war of the Russian writer Yevgeny Sartinov.

Here we will again return to the RLME expert material by Valery Alekseev on the topic “Is war with America possible?”. In principle, of course, war with America is possible for the Russian Federation, if only because the parties to a potential conflict have military capabilities. But Alexeev’s material itself is weak in relation to possible concrete options, since, in the end, the only real scenario depends on the will of the Japanese leadership. However, there is one significant point to which attention should be paid to Alexeev’s expert material - this is his obvious connection with the context of Russian history. The author of the INF Committee states that “a small victorious war” with Japan, according to Plehve’s prescription, will make it possible to remove the question of the need to “modernize” the country. "The issue of the inefficiency of the raw materials economy will be pushed aside, just as the 1812 war of the year allowed freezing discussions for half a century about the inefficiency of serfdom and autocracy," Alekseev writes. The Russian leadership in the expert material is actually called for criminal political cheating. True, the credentials are for some reason sent to Tokyo. The real first Russian-Japanese war of 1904-1905 ended with the real first Russian revolution, isn’t it?

It should be noted that many of our experts in the field of political forecasts are not allowed to sleep by the glory of dissident Andrey Amalrik, who published an essay book “Does the Soviet Union last until 1969?” In samizdat and tamizdat. Amalric acquired the glory of a prophet in his patronymic, the Soviet Union lasted seven years longer than he had predicted. True, few people note that the condition of the collapse of the USSR defined by Amalrik - the Soviet-Chinese war never happened. From this position, it is necessary to consider specific scenarios of a possible military conflict between the Russian Federation and the United States in the expert analysis of the RLME Valery Alekseev.
Originator:
http://www.regnum.ru/news/polit/1728971.html#ixzz2kGjLhPX6
72 comments
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  1. kafa
    kafa 11 November 2013 08: 13
    23
    experts have bred like fleas in a stray dog
    1. APES
      APES 11 November 2013 10: 36
      10
      Quote: kafa
      experts have bred like fleas


      Well, yes, everything has long been known:

      "They beat the weak, but they want to be friends with the strong" - this is more than enough, everything else is "mind exercise"
    2. KEKS44
      KEKS44 11 November 2013 14: 03
      +1
      The gun will fire sooner or later.
      1. Tektor
        Tektor 11 November 2013 14: 29
        +3
        The Anglo-Saxons, by tradition, will want to put a fighter in their place, and it is better for them to find nothing ... On the horizon no more than 6 years will begin the first resource crisis associated with the exhaustion of lead ore in China. Lead is needed for the electronics industry, and it is most stockpiled in Australia and ours. But will the Americans be able to stretch another 6 years? The stump is clear, they will make every effort to pit us and China.
    3. Siberian German
      Siberian German 11 November 2013 19: 42
      +3
      I agree with you, but I agree with the opinion of experts - there will be a war with amers, but through third parties, as it is now in Syria, it was like this before in the USSR, everything returns to normal
    4. alone
      alone 11 November 2013 20: 01
      +3
      They made a daisy: there will be war, there will be no war. Countries carrying nuclear weapons such as the United States and Russia will never fight openly. Such a war will be the end of all mankind. If they were so stupid they would be understood by everyone. And in Russia too. but as they say everyone wants to live.



    5. PValery53
      PValery53 11 November 2013 20: 43
      0
      Accordingly, the price of their "expert" assessments is equal to the price of one of these fleas ...
    6. Rusich51
      Rusich51 11 November 2013 22: 22
      0
      Quote: kafa
      experts have bred like fleas in a stray dog

      A freebie is a sweet word.
  2. aszzz888
    aszzz888 11 November 2013 08: 19
    +3
    The purchase by the Russian side from France of Mistral-class landing ships shows exactly where Moscow sees the main maritime theater of military operations.


    As for the theater of military operations, the Mistrals were budgeted earlier, under Serdyukov. And now "move out" from the topic, our own dear.
    1. Letun
      Letun 11 November 2013 11: 55
      +4
      Quote: aszzz888
      As for the theater of military operations, the Mistrals were budgeted earlier, under Serdyukov. And now "move out" from the topic, our own dear.

      That's for sure, "Mistrals" were bought not in order to enter into a confrontation with Japan, but in order for Mrs. Vasilyeva to buy another bucket of shiny things wink
  3. mirag2
    mirag2 11 November 2013 08: 21
    +3
    Well, what can I say?
    As long as Russia has such an amount of raw materials and useful in the bowels, we will always have enemies. And most importantly, those who will push them out of the fray towards aggression against us.
    1. The comment was deleted.
    2. The comment was deleted.
    3. Altair
      Altair 11 November 2013 09: 21
      -1
      Quote: mirag2
      As long as Russia has such an amount of raw materials and useful in the bowels, we will always have enemies.

      Governments around the world continue to think about how to provide energy needs.
      http://www.bbc.co.uk/russian/multimedia/2013/11/131031_thorium_reactor.shtml
      ----
      A thermonuclear reaction involving boron showed an unexpectedly encouraging result.
      http://compulenta.computerra.ru/veshestvo/fizika/10009406/
    4. Polovec
      Polovec 11 November 2013 10: 56
      +7
      Totally agree with you. I believe that each service has its own job in the state. Someone has to issue even the most incredible forecasts so that the country is ready for them. It never occurs to anyone to limit the flight test program for new aircraft? And the USA is a very cunning and sneaky enemy. After the collapse of the USSR, I no longer amazed at their ingenuity. For such “comrades,” the only reason they understand is brute force and the will to use it. This scum does not recognize or accept anything else. Disarmament proposals are today an indicator of paid agents.
      And further. It seems to me that the refusal of our secret services from sharp actions in the territory of a potential adversary is a big mistake. It is necessary that several secret, but not very, operations would take place in order to discourage the theft of our citizens. If whatever the scum, the one who gave the command will fall under the road roller or if he falls off the sidewalk and breaks his neck, they will understand. There is no other way with them!
    5. Setrac
      Setrac 11 November 2013 14: 06
      +1
      Quote: mirag2
      As long as Russia has such an amount of raw materials and useful in the bowels, we will always have enemies.

      That is ALWAYS.
    6. I am a Russian
      I am a Russian 11 November 2013 19: 26
      +1
      Quote: mirag2
      And most importantly, those who will push them out of the fray towards aggression against us.


      Assume that the integration of Ukraine with the Euro-Amerian union will cause aggression against Russia to escalate?
  4. makarov
    makarov 11 November 2013 08: 22
    +7
    Whatever the situation may be, one thing is clear that the "policy of throwing hats" (using hats) should be forgotten and not remembered, as history teaches. Everything should be well-reasoned. And for EVERYTHING, there must be a REAL and Corresponding answer, and maybe even more HARD, so that it would not be otherwise.
    1. mirag2
      mirag2 11 November 2013 08: 26
      +2
      Just about there !!!No hatred and cheers!
      Only a competently and thoroughly developed policy, taking into account the probability of various events.
  5. major071
    major071 11 November 2013 08: 24
    12
    As already got these experts. One writes that there will be a war, I dig out a machine gun, the other that does not - I dig in again. The shovel has already become dull. I’ll go dig it back for now, but next to the house, just in case. The most important thing is that it is well oiled.
    1. Eugeniy_369
      Eugeniy_369 11 November 2013 08: 32
      +4
      Quote: major071
      I’ll go dig in for now, but next to the house, just in case.

      Quiet Ukrainian night, but the fat must be hidden ...
      1. I am a Russian
        I am a Russian 11 November 2013 19: 29
        0
        Quote: Eugeniy_369
        Quiet Ukrainian night, but the fat must be hidden ...


        laughing and what to hide it? It’s imported ... it doesn’t smell.
    2. PValery53
      PValery53 11 November 2013 20: 50
      0
      Well you, Citizen, give! laughing
  6. alexng
    alexng 11 November 2013 08: 30
    10
    In the light of recent aspirations in Ukraine.
    XXI century. Forecast from the future. On the street Zhou Enlai in Odessa are two Chinese Ha Im and My Sha.
    - Well, how are you? - asks one another.
    - Fine.
    - But honestly?
    - So fine.
    - I ask you as a Chinese Chinese: how do you live?
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 12 November 2013 00: 55
      +1
      Quote: alexneg
      In the light of recent aspirations in Ukraine.

      Allow to insert your 5 cents.
      The states are seriously considering the problem of dismembering Ukraine into 3 parts:
      - Eastern, for which the Russian Federation should intervene;
      - Western, gravitating to RP;
      - Crimea, for which the Muslim international should intervene.
      Purpose:
      - to distract the Russian Federation from the alliance with the PRC in order to weaken its position in the Asia-Pacific region, where the States are stubbornly climbing;
      - internationalize the conflict by drawing NATO countries into it (RP, Turkey);
      - deprive the Russian Federation of the opportunity to use nuclear weapons (according to their Slavic brothers);
      - stir up Muslims of the Russian Federation, thereby sowing discord in the country on a national basis;
      - sow discord among Russian-Ukrainians, undermine civil peace in society.
      In this way, a whole series of problems that hinder the USA in the Asia-Pacific region and in relation to the Russian Federation and China will be solved.
  7. Bigriver
    Bigriver 11 November 2013 08: 34
    +2
    Yes, good analytics smile
    The Russia-US conflict is very likely IF Tokyo has the will to prick the bear with a toothpick.
    1. Setrac
      Setrac 11 November 2013 14: 08
      +2
      Quote: BigRiver
      The Russia-US conflict is very likely IF Tokyo has the will to prick the bear with a toothpick.

      Japan is an occupied country, its will is located in Washington.
    2. varov14
      varov14 11 November 2013 20: 11
      +2
      In the neighborhood, erase a couple of islands, of course not ours. Two cities erased by the Americans are few, but there are many friendships, can you imagine how they will be friends with us after that?
  8. Alikovo
    Alikovo 11 November 2013 08: 36
    -1
    war with America is possible only for the Arctic.
    1. Sirocco
      Sirocco 11 November 2013 08: 49
      +5
      Quote: Alikovo
      war with America is possible only for the Arctic.

      Gentlemen, open your eyes, this war is already underway, and it is correctly written in the article, on the periphery of the borders of Russia. So the question is how to stop this "color" war. It seems that we had a doctrine about a preventive nuclear strike in case of a threat from outside for the country? Or I'm wrong?
      1. Alexander Romanov
        Alexander Romanov 11 November 2013 08: 58
        +2
        Quote: Sirocco
        Gentlemen, open your eyes, this war is already on

        Sorry, and who do you think is winning?
        1. IRBIS
          IRBIS 11 November 2013 15: 35
          +5
          Quote: Alexander Romanov
          Sorry, and who do you think is winning?

          Oh, Alexander, stop your "sorry"! You sho, do not know at all about that war? Well, why do you hold all of us for helmetazel! I beg you, you do not even know directly who wins in any war?

          Hi Sanya!
      2. Alexander_
        Alexander_ 11 November 2013 19: 09
        +4
        Excerpt from the doctrine of the Russian Federation:
        "The Russian Federation reserves the right to use nuclear weapons in response to the use of nuclear and other types of weapons of mass destruction against it and (or) its allies, as well as in the event of aggression against the Russian Federation with the use of conventional weapons, when the very existence of the state is threatened ...
        The decision to use nuclear weapons is made by the President of the Russian Federation. "
    2. Migari
      Migari 11 November 2013 10: 52
      +1
      Our interests with the States clash not only in the Arctic, the question here is only how far these clashes can go.
      1. Sirocco
        Sirocco 11 November 2013 14: 23
        +3
        Quote: Migari
        Our interests with the States are confronted not only in the Arctic,

        I agree with you
        We have a discrepancy with the Americans in only one issue ... agrarian. Who will bury whom.
      2. I am a Russian
        I am a Russian 11 November 2013 23: 30
        0
        Quote: Migari
        Our interests collide with the United States not only in the Arctic


        .

        US Franklin Templeton Investment Fund Acquires 20% of Ukraine's External Debt
    3. Lesnik
      Lesnik 11 November 2013 20: 35
      0
      Quote: Alikovo
      war with America is possible only for the Arctic.

      Not a question for what - QUESTION WHEN?
  9. Yuri Y.
    Yuri Y. 11 November 2013 08: 40
    +1
    The Russian Council on Foreign Affairs (INF), headed by former Foreign Minister Igor Ivanov, continues its expert work.

    After such expert analyzes, at least continue, at least do not continue, you can ignore this INF.
  10. The comment was deleted.
  11. j iz sibiri
    j iz sibiri 11 November 2013 08: 44
    0
    and so we are fighting with America every day but we can’t defeat everything

    and you are all talking about a possible war
  12. Sterlya
    Sterlya 11 November 2013 08: 45
    +2
    this Andrei Zagorsky is not an expert. some kind of traitor. spy. conductor of the blue dream of amers
    1. Andrey Yuryevich
      Andrey Yuryevich 11 November 2013 09: 26
      +4
      exactly! if there are such "scientists" in the RAS, then it is absolutely necessary, as the Old Man says: pre-fuck ...
  13. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 11 November 2013 08: 52
    +5
    If you want peace, prepare for war! At all times in Russia there was one commandment - to keep gunpowder dry! The main thing is that our "partners" who proclaimed the riches of Russia as "universal" property know that the answer will be such that all their desires will disappear with them. It is necessary to clearly and ambiguously make it clear to these "common people", the rebuff will be terrible and we will stop at nothing defending the Motherland! And it seems that this is slowly being implemented, take at least the revival of the base on Kotelny Island, etc.! Only powerful Armed Forces The forces will serve as a guarantor not only of our security, but also to guarantee peace. I would like to remind about the CSTO CRRF - this is not a "funny army", but a completely combat-ready association! (So before torturing your mind and fate, you would think about the consequences gentlemen "hotelers")! And cowards and alarmists, by tradition - to the wall!
  14. stayer
    stayer 11 November 2013 09: 00
    +2
    America will have to fight with it sooner or later. It's a question of time.
  15. shurup
    shurup 11 November 2013 09: 01
    +2
    If one weather forecaster predicts rain and the second bucket, which of them will receive a prize from the manufacturer of umbrellas?
    And I predict that there will be no war, but conflicts will not end.
    In addition, a slight increase in nostalgia for the USSR is expected amid increased pressure on the credit and financial system. The west wind will continue the tendency to change to the east and relations will begin to freeze in the humiliated sections of the disputed territories.
    Thaws are over and in order to avoid acute respiratory infections should be worn warmer.
  16. tronin.maxim
    tronin.maxim 11 November 2013 09: 05
    +5
    In order to "strengthen Russia's security," Zagorsky proposed to eliminate ballistic missiles and Strategic Missile Forces under a possible future agreement with the United States. SO EVEN IN A DRINKED RADIANCE YOU WILL NOT SAY! WELL THIS IS ALSO THE MOST THAT TO GO AND HANG. IT IS NECESSARY TO PLANT FOR SUCH CONCLUSIONS! am
    1. PValery53
      PValery53 11 November 2013 21: 00
      0
      For a proposal to abandon strategic protection, it is necessary, for an ostracism, to throw at least a few lashes to the author of this "proposal" ...
  17. morpogr
    morpogr 11 November 2013 09: 06
    +1
    The war is going on and the sphere of influence has not been canceled. Americans do not just keep an eye on the allies, but to always know what and where is happening at the highest level in order to exert pressure for their own benefit. Russia is again pursuing a more active policy in these games. Syria and the change vectors of military cooperation with Egypt, as well as a policy agreed upon with China on key issues.
  18. Lone wolf
    Lone wolf 11 November 2013 09: 35
    0
    Russia, as always, will put one place on everyone!
  19. ZU-23
    ZU-23 11 November 2013 09: 37
    +1
    We are still playing soldiers, Russia has a nuclear triad and America was always afraid that no matter how drunk Vanya would press the red button, today America is falling politically, but on the contrary we are getting stronger, our task is to change Europe in our own way, already now in Europe they have been twitching against the hegemony of America, though they themselves cannot do anything yet. Anyway, if you really think about it, then this article is a linden from a genus who is longer.
  20. The comment was deleted.
  21. ed65b
    ed65b 11 November 2013 10: 17
    +3
    The experts are their mother, who is in the woods who is for firewood. Well, they can’t decide to hand out, reduce or fight. One from one hangover is another. laughing
  22. Alex66
    Alex66 11 November 2013 10: 28
    +3
    However, the problem of the division of property has not yet been resolved and legitimized in the eyes of the country's population.
    This is the main obstacle to the development of the country, the people are robbed and do not want to work for their robbers, each for himself. In the USSR, they believed that the state protects the interests of citizens; everyone had equal opportunities. Now everyone’s capabilities are increasingly determined by the size of personal savings, there are no savings and there are no opportunities. And no small victorious war will force me to change this point of view.
  23. Alex66
    Alex66 11 November 2013 10: 28
    0
    However, the problem of the division of property has not yet been resolved and legitimized in the eyes of the country's population.
    This is the main obstacle to the development of the country, the people are robbed and do not want to work for their robbers, each for himself. In the USSR, they believed that the state protects the interests of citizens; everyone had equal opportunities. Now everyone’s capabilities are increasingly determined by the size of personal savings, there are no savings and there are no opportunities. And no small victorious war will force me to change this point of view.
    1. Setrac
      Setrac 11 November 2013 14: 15
      +1
      Quote: Alex66
      people are robbed and do not want to work for their robbers

      The phrase "the people are robbed" suggests that before that the "people" had something, but this is not so. Both under the tsar and under the communists, and now under the democrats, the people do not own anything.
  24. pahom54
    pahom54 11 November 2013 10: 30
    +1
    Here again verbiage. Someone earns authority on empty "expert" conclusions.
    As a question, the answer is clear as two fingers on the asphalt: Is a war between the Russian Federation and the United States possible (and vice versa) ??? Yes, of course it is.
    But what does Japan have to do with it? Japan itself, no matter how it jerks viciously toward the Russian Federation, is essentially NOTHING (although it is one of the leading economic powers in the world). Another question is if the mongrel will be tied to us, and then the States will get in too.
    For some reason, few people still perceive the threat from China as greater than from the United States.
    What we have? The US Army, which did not fight with a worthy adversary, is all about small things. The main interest in the fight against the Russian Federation is to remove Russia from the world leaders.
    The Russian army, which also does not have at the moment a specific combat experience.
    The PRC Army, which also does not have a specific combat experience, but is numerous, well-equipped, with strict discipline and suggestibility for the self-sacrifice of personnel. Add global interests to Russian territories and their resources. The main interest in the fight against Russia is the SURVIVAL of our own nation, and then, in the future, world hegemony.
    Minus, gentlemen, comrades, however, I will answer the question of the article: yes, war is possible, and not only with the United States, but also with China.
  25. pahom54
    pahom54 11 November 2013 10: 30
    +1
    Here again verbiage. Someone earns authority on empty "expert" conclusions.
    As a question, the answer is clear as two fingers on the asphalt: Is a war between the Russian Federation and the United States possible (and vice versa) ??? Yes, of course it is.
    But what does Japan have to do with it? Japan itself, no matter how it jerks viciously toward the Russian Federation, is essentially NOTHING (although it is one of the leading economic powers in the world). Another question is if the mongrel will be tied to us, and then the States will get in too.
    For some reason, few people still perceive the threat from China as greater than from the United States.
    What we have? The US Army, which did not fight with a worthy adversary, is all about small things. The main interest in the fight against the Russian Federation is to remove Russia from the world leaders.
    The Russian army, which also does not have at the moment a specific combat experience.
    The PRC Army, which also does not have a specific combat experience, but is numerous, well-equipped, with strict discipline and suggestibility for the self-sacrifice of personnel. Add global interests to Russian territories and their resources. The main interest in the fight against Russia is the SURVIVAL of our own nation, and then, in the future, world hegemony.
    Minus, gentlemen, comrades, however, I will answer the question of the article: yes, war is possible, and not only with the United States, but also with China.
  26. Tartary
    Tartary 11 November 2013 11: 22
    +2
    There will be a war - this is felt ... Her breath has been circling in the air for already a year ...
    The test of strength took place in 2008 and I think sometimes, how not to be in the midst of events, already a feeble fart, who, instead of "wanted to get under the gun, could only fart and sit down ...
    1. nickname 1 and 2
      nickname 1 and 2 11 November 2013 15: 35
      +1
      Quote: Tartary
      instead of "I wanted to get under the gun, I could only fart and sit down ...


      the main thing is not: "I could just like a nut with all the contents ...."

      go to the gym, DEAR, you have to get up = you should not hide behind your grandchildren.
      but for us old people what difference does it make when they die a week earlier or later, the main thing is that they are allowed to stand in line!

      BUT WAR WILL NOT BE !!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! NOT WITH ANYONE! NO WAY! NO CRAZY! EVERYTHING ALREADY KNOWS THAT DON'T KILL US TO US KILL EVERYTHING = VICTORY WILL BE FOR US !!!!!!!

      But no so = corn and partisans!
      1. Tartary
        Tartary 23 November 2013 06: 46
        0
        Quote: nick 1 and 2
        the main thing is not: "I could just like a nut with all the contents ...."

        This fact was not and is not dumb ... This reaction of the organism sometimes only confirms that the organism has been cleansed of excess and is ready for momentary hardships and deprivations. And because of what this outburst of excess happened, because of fear or instinctively, it doesn’t matter anymore. wink
  27. optimist
    optimist 11 November 2013 11: 23
    -1
    At the moment we need to be afraid of an internal war (interethnic, civil). Which, in turn, may arise as a reaction to the deteriorating internal socio-economic situation. Many people now see an analogy with the situation in RI 100 years ago. The country was dragged into the war by the authorities solely with the aim of distracting the plebs from the revolution, and of course the Black Sea straits as a pleasant bonus. The author very correctly notes that despite the 22-year history of the Russian Federation, the majority of the population has not come to terms with the collapse of the USSR and the results of privatization. So the putler now desperately needs a "small and victorious" - especially if we get along with a "limpiyada" ...
    1. Boa kaa
      Boa kaa 12 November 2013 00: 26
      +1
      Quote: optimist
      So the putler now desperately needs a "small and victorious" - especially if we get along with a "limpiyada" ...

      Putin has repeatedly said that we need 20 years of peaceful development to restore the country's economic situation. This is - in 1's.
      In-2's, It is impossible to wage a war unpopular among the people. Such an adventure is doomed to failure in advance: our people do not need any war.
      About the olympiad. There is a lot of mess. Theft of 8 billion, incomplete, behind schedule, etc. BUT! Money for the construction of the Olympic infrastructure in our country is also provided by the Olympic Committee (IOC). The Olympics will pass - the facilities will remain.
  28. ochakow703
    ochakow703 11 November 2013 11: 44
    +2
    Blue haze ...
  29. poccinin
    poccinin 11 November 2013 11: 57
    0
    while in RUSSIA the "PERIMETR" system is on alert - (DEAD HAND) no one will attack. The system has been in service since 1985. EXACTLY "STANDING ON THE BATTLE DUTY" the president and the Commander-in-Chief of the Missile Forces spoke about this.
  30. Ahmed Osmanov
    Ahmed Osmanov 11 November 2013 12: 23
    +5
    There will never be a direct military conflict between Russia and the United States. This will be mutual destruction within 15-25 minutes, and no one wants that. Conclusion: further international relations will develop in the same way as during the Cold War. Whenever possible, we will "bite" each other, so I consider it important to intensify the work of foreign intelligence and diplomacy, as it was in the USSR. Since it is through these structures that one can inflict both damage on the enemy and attract new allies to his side.
  31. Enot-poloskun
    Enot-poloskun 11 November 2013 13: 13
    0
    US Conquest Plan:

    - In secret laboratories grow hordes of Russian cockroaches and bugs.

    - send parcels to New York.

    - after some time, after contamination with chemical insect control agents over a large area, the US capitulate.

    The war scenario was inspired by this Soviet cartoon:

    http://mults.info/mults/?id=1689

    "The last battle".
    1. Setrac
      Setrac 11 November 2013 14: 19
      0
      Quote: Enot-poloskun
      The war scenario was inspired by this Soviet cartoon:

      It is a pity that not the story "The Last Battle"
  32. Peaceful military
    Peaceful military 11 November 2013 14: 04
    +2
    Head of the Department of IMEMO RAS and Professor of MGIMO Andrey Zagorskiy. In order to "strengthen Russia's security," Zagorsky proposed to eliminate ballistic missiles and Strategic Missile Forces under a possible future agreement with the United States.

    How can such individuals occupy not small public posts, and even teach? Who will they learn?
    As for the article, all these tips and other inter-friends are a thing that is not clear, if only, to identify enemies ...
    There is a General Staff, where unlike fortunetellers on coffee grounds, there should be invisible super professionals on such issues.
  33. Mikhail3
    Mikhail3 11 November 2013 14: 15
    +2
    What is this chatter? Is this "expert" paid line by line? Or is he an American scientist? Publish or Die? A diligent retelling of another article, supplemented by a short summary of the fantasy novel. Maybe the author of this not very readable novel is promoting his imperishable in this way? Chukhnya ...
  34. Stinger
    Stinger 11 November 2013 14: 25
    +1
    Normal scenarios. We have such in bulk. And the recommendations are clear: Stay there, come here.
  35. erofich
    erofich 11 November 2013 14: 29
    +3
    They are paid to see a lot, since new words are introduced - "alarm forecast". And the alarming prognosis - it was weak to write or the knowledge of the language is not enough.
  36. vlad.svargin
    vlad.svargin 11 November 2013 15: 25
    0
    The main emphasis in its wars is placed by the United States on airstrikes against key centers of defense and supply of enemy troops, as well as on the infrastructure of the target state in order to maximally demoralize both the population and the leadership of these states. The application of the same tactics in relation to our country looks quite logical. And here it is appropriate to recall the furious screams of the corrupt media and stupid pseudo-experts shouting in unison about the complete devastation of the Russian air defense ... in the event of hostilities against Russia, the US aviation will suffer irreparable losses, which will make it impossible to continue further military operations. According to some European military analysts, Russia's air defense system is capable of destroying up to 80% of aircraft of any type invading our airspace. Our specialists are again somewhat more modest in assessing the effectiveness of our air defense and declare the possibility of shooting down 60-65%. But it is worth emphasizing that these are only ground-based air defense forces and means, without taking into account the forces and means of the Russian Air Force, which include a sufficient number of fighter-interceptors to finish off the remnants of the aggressor's aviation (Shabalin Alexey Petrovich. "War between Russia and the United States. Who will win?")
    1. PValery53
      PValery53 11 November 2013 21: 22
      0
      It is useful to apply this "scenario" to America itself. How will she sing then?! .. How many percent of the "funds" directed to her will she have enough strength to reflect?! .. And why is the conversation only about the "encirclement" of Russia? - It is high time to talk about "laying around" the territory of the United States itself, it will be "better" ...
  37. mithridate
    mithridate 11 November 2013 15: 27
    +1
    according to the announced results of the activity of experts, it is clear that they only utilize budget money, and do not wrinkle their turnips very much
  38. greenk19
    greenk19 11 November 2013 15: 39
    -1
    Somehow short-sightedly, Mr. Alekseev is considering the Far Eastern problem. In the last century, the same myopic analysts were proud of their friendship with Hitler. The old man Sun Tzu still advised to keep his enemy close. Now China and America share spheres of influence, but both need resources ... Communicate with each other, share territory in a friendly manner, despite contracts. And in China, the maps are more accurate by the way, Mr. Alekseev does not know that the Far East is Chinese territory, with the most friendly intentions for Russia.
  39. michasoci
    michasoci 11 November 2013 16: 27
    0
    Quote: greenk19
    The Far East is Chinese territory,

    justify, dear
  40. EdwardTich68
    EdwardTich68 11 November 2013 16: 36
    0
    All sorts of intellectually underdeveloped people consider direct conflict possible.
    However, undoubtedly, such fabrications are created by foolish people, in order to raise their image
    in any communities with the help of verbiage and "commissary", typical, however, rather for
    cheap clickers and graffiti writers than for really thinking people.
  41. vuvarovskiy
    vuvarovskiy 11 November 2013 17: 47
    +1
    Whoever is too lazy, they all climb into experts!
    1. EdwardTich68
      EdwardTich68 11 November 2013 18: 20
      0
      that is exactly what I wanted to say
  42. Corsair5912
    Corsair5912 11 November 2013 18: 54
    +2
    In the war against Russia, the Yankees have no chance. Russian missiles are able to easily reach the territory of the YSA and create such a panic there that the Janes will scatter screaming "Russians are coming", abandoning both weapons and factories.
  43. kartalovkolya
    kartalovkolya 11 November 2013 18: 57
    0
    Oh, bye! You can crap just like that. But you are selling not only Russia, but also your descendants. Eat more sugars here is the solution to the question! (In the sense of s.p.) Remember, we will transfer you all to the sewer!
  44. Boot under the carpet
    Boot under the carpet 11 November 2013 19: 26
    0
    Serdyukov bought the Mistrals, most likely because there were more financial kickbacks than anywhere else, but not for a possible theater of operations with Japan! Article is empty-bellied! We have every second expert. I put a minus!
  45. Savva30
    Savva30 11 November 2013 19: 57
    +2
    We have many officials with real estate, children, lovers, business interests abroad, including in the states ... what kind of war are we talking about?
  46. Aristarch
    Aristarch 11 November 2013 19: 58
    +1
    I wonder how this Zagorsky can be a rector. how can he deal with issues and debate in economic forums? After all, this is complete nonsense, I mean his passion for disarmament of nuclear weapons. And the author of the article immediately shows him sympathy. The time will come to count such we will plant.
  47. Backfire
    Backfire 11 November 2013 20: 43
    -1
    You continue to blow into your ears delirium about the "Main Enemy" - terrible America. Your main enemy is China. But why are your masters silent about this? Because there is a real threat and if only a real discussion begins about the state of affairs in a possible military conflict between Russia and China, then you Russians will see that Russia will lose instantly and with a devastating score. But the main thing is that you will see all the impotence of your authorities, which absolutely did not prepare the country for real, not imaginary threats.

    Here is an excellent article by blogger Alexander Khramchikhin "China will defeat Russia in the war in a couple of days."
    Read, everything is extremely real and specifically disassembled there:
    http://uainfo.org/yandex/225699-kitay-pobedit-rossiyu-v-voyne-za-paru-dney-versi
    ya-blogerov.html
    1. Aristarch
      Aristarch 12 November 2013 16: 49
      +1
      You said something stupid, that nothing will remain of the PRC in the event of aggression, because medium-range short-range missiles get into operation and they know it very well. They want to be friends with us, and you bleed without knowing the subject))) smile
  48. Boris63
    Boris63 11 November 2013 20: 50
    +1
    In the states, the State Department ordered such articles to increase the military budget, maybe they ordered from us to tell their voters later: you see, Russia is considering conflicts with the USA, let's get more dough and bear it.
  49. Boris63
    Boris63 11 November 2013 20: 51
    0
    In the states, the State Department ordered such articles to increase the military budget, maybe they ordered from us to tell their voters later: you see, Russia is considering conflicts with the USA, let's get more dough and bear it.
  50. Arkan
    Arkan 11 November 2013 21: 06
    0
    "Council" should be given to Bondarchuk. For grants to shoot kinukhi, for patients of boarding houses "Kanatchikova Dacha", "Stepanova-Skvortsova" and others, according to the scenarios that this "advice" writes.