Military Review

East enters the arms race

38
East enters the arms race



During the global financial and economic crisis, few industries succeeded not only in maintaining their pre-crisis positions, but also reaching a new level of development. Among them weapons a business that is experiencing an unprecedented rise today. Over the period 2008-2012, global arms sales increased by 30% and amounted to $ 73,5 billion in monetary terms. The United States (30% of the world market), then Russia (26%), followed by Germany (7%) hold the leadership of the world arms dealer ) and France (6%), closes the top five - China (5%). And before, Britain took fifth place. The Chinese military industrialists succeeded in crowding out Great Britain thanks to Pakistan, which is actively purchasing weapons from the Middle Kingdom. By the way, Beijing also buys a lot of weapons, being one of the world's largest importers. India ranks first among arms buyers (12%), then China (6%), Pakistan (5%) and South Korea (5%).

The time has come and now the United States is gradually losing its leading position in the arms market. And the reason for this situation is the reduction of military expenditures by European countries by 10% and the unprecedented rise in the arms business in the countries of the eastern region. China in this race is on the list of leaders in arms exports. Moreover, the demand for weapons in the countries of the Pacific region is constantly growing. One of the largest buyers of weapons in the east is India.

Experts predict that by the year 2020 the volume of global arms sales will double. But the situation on the market will change - military budgets are actively moving to the East and competition in the arms market will only increase.

So far, the largest part of the world arms market belongs to the United States. But the forced need to reduce military spending and the withdrawal of their troops from Afghanistan will lead to a significant reduction in the US share in the global arms market. Perhaps the decline in the American share to 30%, while Asian countries will be able to take 31% of the arms trade market.

The Asia-Pacific region takes a leading position in arms costs: over the next eight years, they can still increase by 35% and reach $ 501 billion. At the same time, IHS Jane's conclusion, the US government’s spending on weapons will decrease by 28% - up to $ 472 billion

This situation puts Western weapons companies in a difficult position. To stay afloat, they need to constantly increase their exports or shrink. Moreover, if Western gunsmiths give up their positions to eastern competitors, they will sow the seeds of their subsequent collapse.

Strengthening the military power of China is very worried about all the states in the region, especially Japan and South Korea. China does not hide its desire to assign itself to the disputed territories, showing all its military power. Such influential states in the Pacific region as India and South Korea are also trying to increase their military potential and are very welcome customers of such Western weapons manufacturers as BAE Systems, Lockheed Martin and Boeing. These weapons manufacturers, selling fighters and other military equipment to eastern partners, compensate for the loss associated with a decrease in military orders by Western countries. But there is another side to this situation - the client countries demand from world suppliers of weapons to invest in the defense industry of their countries. For example, the Indian authorities, negotiating the delivery of aircraft for the Indian army by Dassault Aviation 126, laid down the condition that 50% of all works and services under the contract will be fulfilled by Indian companies. All countries in the Asia-Pacific region are taking possible measures to gain access to world-class high technologies: they acquire production licenses, attract investment on favorable terms to investors, and engage in industrial espionage.

The arms race has swept the countries of the Pacific region. The Chinese authorities are planning to increase their military budget by 2021% by 64, making up $ 207 billion. India and Indonesia also plan to increase their military budget by 54% and 113%, respectively. These countries are planning to use the allocated funds not so much to buy weapons from world weapon giants, as to invest money in creating their own defense industry, which will be able to create modern weapons, including fighter jets and aircraft carriers. And if they succeed, then after a while, they will be able to compete with weapon monopolists in world arms exports.

As noted above, despite the difficulties experienced by countries during the financial and economic crisis, there has been a significant increase in arms costs. Thus, according to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI), spending on weapons has already reached astronomical values ​​- $ 1,75 trillion. and have long exceeded the military spending of states at the peak of the Cold War. After the collapse of the USSR, the United States reduced its military spending to 40% of the entire world level, but even in this case, Washington remained the leader among all countries in terms of military spending. The second place, in terms of military spending, was taken by China, which increased costs by 7,8% ($ 11,5 billion), the third - by Russia, with an increase in military spending by 16% ($ 12,3 billion). Last year, China spent $ 166 billion on military equipment, while Russia spent $ 91 billion.

Having studied the available materials, SIPRI specialists believe that the weapons market has undergone changes: the balance of the arms market has shifted towards the countries of the Asia-Pacific Region (APR). The rampant arms race among the APR countries led to this.

The complication of the situation on the Korean Peninsula has led to the fact that all neighboring countries are forced to acquire the latest air defense and missile defense systems in order to protect themselves from the threat from North Korea. And not only. The steps of China, which, having acquired considerable economic power, at an accelerated pace converts it into a military one, made the APR countries increase their military budgets. Asia and Oceania in the purchase of weapons rely on long-range missiles and means to enhance the naval forces, including the submarine fleet.

Despite the already tangible scenario of changes in the arms market, Asian countries have not yet gained force at the international level. The export of Chinese weapons is directed only towards the neighbors. And although South Korea supplies a significant amount of weapons to the Philippines and Indonesia, the quality of these weapons leaves much to be desired. By the way, recently one of the African states was forced to return radar to Chinese manufacturers, which simply did not work. But despite such temporary problems, IHS Jane's analyst Guy Anderson says: ".... give Asia and the Middle East ten years, and these countries will start selling world-class equipment."

Materials used:
http://www.vz.ru/economy/2013/6/25/638660.html
http://www.km.ru/world/2013/06/26/oboronnaya-promyshlennost/714477-aziatskie-strany-gotovyatsya-stat-novymi-tsentrami
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38 comments
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  1. xetai9977
    xetai9977 2 July 2013 08: 19 New
    +3
    If Japan and South Korea really start producing weapons, many traditional suppliers will have a hard time. These 2 countries have always been famous for the quality of their products. The South Koreans began to slowly draw in, while the Japanese have not yet decided.
    1. Trofimov174
      Trofimov174 2 July 2013 08: 58 New
      +9
      They simply will not be given. Japan, Australia and Korea are the main markets for American weapons in the Asia-Pacific region, with pro-American politicians sitting at the very top. Even if someone wants their tanks and planes and to the masses, they will not be allowed to twitter for a long time about this, as, for example, the Japanese opponents prevented the public debate from placing the American Osprey and Patriot systems on their territory.
      1. Pimply
        Pimply 2 July 2013 11: 08 New
        +3
        Well, talk garbage. Both have their own tanks. Korea, now, like Japan, is engaged in the development of its own aircraft, and Japan collected its own versions of the F-4 and F-15 with a very high percentage of localization.
        1. xetai9977
          xetai9977 2 July 2013 11: 22 New
          10
          No, Evgeny, we don’t talk garbage. I wrote "REALLY ..". These countries produce equipment, but Japan is exclusively for itself (in any case, I have not heard about export deliveries), and the South Koreans are taking only the first steps on the path to export. But the potential of these countries is huge. Take for example the K-2 tank and self-propelled guns. It is quite a world level. And what will happen if these countries develop the export of weapons. With their electronics, high technology .....
          1. PSih2097
            PSih2097 2 July 2013 12: 51 New
            +3
            Quote: xetai9977
            But the potential of these countries is huge. Take for example the K-2 tank and self-propelled guns.

            You can also recall the UDC, for example, "Doc-Do" I like more Mistral ...
            UDC Doc-Do
    2. Ross
      Ross 2 July 2013 11: 20 New
      +3
      A weapon in the hands - someday it will fire.
      The accumulation of such arsenals will inevitably be applied.
      1. Massik
        Massik 2 July 2013 17: 53 New
        0
        It’s not at all a fact, for example, to take the Soviet Union, it could destroy the entire globe several times, but in the end ...
    3. Apologet.Ru
      Apologet.Ru 2 July 2013 17: 31 New
      +3
      And not only the East, the “West” is also not far behind - “Great changes are coming in the Lithuanian army. On Tuesday, Zeym passed a law prepared by the Ministry of Defense on the principle structure and number of armed forces in 2014 and 2019. Already next year, instead of infantry, the ranks of the armed the forces of this country will replenish the hussars, ulans and dragoons " belay .
    4. Dust-nn2
      Dust-nn2 2 July 2013 23: 07 New
      +2
      uncle you are at least wrong 1: the Japanese have a mind but no resources 2: the resources will give but no brains. And 3: the Slavs have everything
      1. fisherman
        fisherman 3 July 2013 07: 22 New
        0
        when the passionarity of the masses increases, then the mind (caution) fades into the background, this is not what I said, this is history :)
  2. Sashkessss
    Sashkessss 2 July 2013 08: 33 New
    +6
    We used to have an "Arms Race" with America too ... It ended peacefully, though one country fell apart ...
  3. igor36
    igor36 2 July 2013 08: 45 New
    +7
    By the way, recently one of the African states was forced to return radar to Chinese manufacturers, which simply did not work.

    About Africa did not hear, and Ecuador refused 4 radars almost simultaneously failed.
    1. omsbon
      omsbon 2 July 2013 09: 42 New
      +3
      Quote: igor36
      Ecuador abandoned 4 radars almost simultaneously failed.

      They were just unlucky, the Xeroxes junked at the Chinese. request
      1. Apologet.Ru
        Apologet.Ru 2 July 2013 17: 37 New
        +3
        You are not quite accurate, colleague, not a copier, but an 3D printer ...
  4. individual
    individual 2 July 2013 08: 51 New
    +1
    The growth of the Chinese economy and its economic expansion in the region causes concern among neighbors, which leads to an increase in armaments. Unresolved problems in the confrontation between India and Pakistan and the confrontation between the two Koreas also contribute to the arms race.
    Japan, ignoring the provisions of its own constitution, is creating its previously banned types of troops.
    Military competition in armaments needs in the Pacific is increasing.
  5. Dima190579
    Dima190579 2 July 2013 09: 09 New
    +1
    WANT PEACE TO PREPARE FOR WAR. AND PEOPLE WANT HERE FOR WAR AND PREPARE,
  6. fisherman
    fisherman 2 July 2013 09: 12 New
    +1
    Experts predict that by 2020, global arms sales will double. But the situation on the market is changing - military budgets are actively moving to the East


    this is for those who do not want to read the whole article :)
  7. fenix57
    fenix57 2 July 2013 09: 16 New
    +2
    "Strengthening the military power of China is very concerned about all the states of the region, especially Japan and South Korea.“- I would like to learn from our analysts about this - does the Russian leadership worry about the very strengthening of military power, our very strategic partner, which is China.
    Bought:"... then China (6%)", dismantled, studied," built "and sold (!):"... closes the top five - China (5%)."They live like that, they chew bread with butter.
    1. Asgard
      Asgard 2 July 2013 10: 03 New
      -4
      China is nurtured ....
      How could the whole ECONOMY of the World be transferred to ONE COUNTRY ?????
      Near the Indians (though they are peace-loving)) to stupefaction ...
      Vietnamese, Laos, Singapore, Korea ..- not so manageable .....
      The Chinese are 99% robots and are completely subordinate to the "alien will" - these are not People.
      (it’s regrettable to fix this, they can be taught a lot, but they themselves (without assistance) cannot survive, there is no intelligence, therefore they cannot do the aircraft engine))))

      But all THIS will come to US in RUSSIA, to free territories freed from troops and population by the Russian government ...
      The project "The States of Siberia and the Far East" was being worked out, where it was proposed to abolish the Constitution of Russia, Federal Laws and introduce a direct PRESIDENTIAL BOARD, but VOVA did not justify "trust" and McCain voiced a "black mark" to him ...
      and a completely MANAGED “national“ leader ”forgot this project, because intelligence is not enough to translate ...
      And China will not buy territory ....
      He will come THERE in "military boots" and the world elites will try to survive at the expense of the WAR with RUSSIA and at its expense ....

      P | S. here you can replay .. even "one person" .., but in the "Kremlin" there is no such intelligence ...., and even a little bit and nothing can be changed ...
      it’s like with a container ship)))) I didn’t upload those ballast tanks and he drowned, rocked “in a different way” and everything will float on a different route and there will be no need to burn the Chinese and Jews ....
      And so have to)))))
      1. Skipper
        Skipper 2 July 2013 12: 20 New
        10
        Here I look at your answers, Mr. Asgard and regret that in Russia psychiatric care since 1992. It appears on a voluntary basis.
        No offense, minus you.
        1. Asgard
          Asgard 2 July 2013 12: 29 New
          +5
          Well, thanks for the voice, but +/- to me no difference ..
          You put an assessment not to Me, but to your intellect and education, but something still makes you react, So you are a Man))))

          and I always put +)))
          I don’t need help. There are the most wise creatures on this Earth. These are our Children ...
          They say who is called, that is what is called .... And much can be learned about Man when He speaks about other People ....
          Dangle on Us))))these are simple rules of conduct for PEOPLE ....

          Correct)))) Well, as your + ....
        2. Denb
          Denb 2 July 2013 12: 46 New
          +8
          If your opponent has a hot temper, try to annoy him. If he is narcissistic, play on his egoism ... A real master controls the active actions of the enemy, slipping him the situation in accordance with which he will act. He lures the enemy with bait, which he will surely bite. He does not allow the enemy to stop, holding the bait in front of him, and then attacks him with a selected army. (Sun Tzu)
          1. Skipper
            Skipper 2 July 2013 12: 50 New
            +2
            I agree with you DeNB laughing Around "Combat Cyber ​​Trolls"
  8. Zerkalo
    Zerkalo 2 July 2013 09: 41 New
    +2
    And what did you want, the market ... For the same China, it’s easier to pay a certain amount to a group of our officials and get new equipment from Russia, which you can then stupidly copy, than to invest your own efforts (time, money, personnel) in all kinds of R&D.

    The same states, and what a sin, our weapons corporations, benefit from this hysteria. They buy something so far, anyway, from them, BUT such a number of equipment that just costs a lot of expensive pleasure, no matter how everything flashes there, so that the same states (well, they have historically such a tendency) could correct their the economy.
  9. nepopadun
    nepopadun 2 July 2013 09: 42 New
    0
    Are these women in the picture?
    1. theadenter
      theadenter 2 July 2013 10: 20 New
      +2
      And in the foreground and background - yes.
  10. Hektor
    Hektor 2 July 2013 09: 48 New
    +2
    Quote: xetai9977
    If Japan and South Korea really start producing weapons, many traditional suppliers will have a hard time. These 2 countries have always been famous for the quality of their products. The South Koreans began to slowly draw in, while the Japanese have not yet decided.


    And they actually produce it, but no one will let them sell it (+ Japan also has a constitution which, unlike some, they abide by).

    By the way, Beijing also buys a lot of weapons, being one of the world's largest importers. India ranks first among arms buyers (12%), then China (6%), Pakistan (5%) and South Korea (5%).


    Where is Saudi Arabia ???
  11. Unknown
    Unknown 2 July 2013 10: 01 New
    0
    If the market really moves east, then Europe and the United States will not be very lucky.
  12. Ivanovich47
    Ivanovich47 2 July 2013 10: 11 New
    0
    The growth in the production and export of modern high-tech weapons is not an arms race. Regarding Russia, this is the main source of income to the state treasury after the export of raw materials. And the Asia-Pacific countries are focusing on increasing arms production for export. I think that there are almost no arms races as during the Cold War (for example, between the USSR and the USA).
  13. theadenter
    theadenter 2 July 2013 10: 16 New
    0
    It would be better if the whole thing went to the Cold War, and not a full-blown ...
  14. Dmitry 2246
    Dmitry 2246 2 July 2013 11: 16 New
    +2
    The number of weapons will grow in the east into a quality slaughter.
    Too many territorial and economic problems have accumulated.
    Again, the struggle of India and China for spheres of influence and Africa.
    I think the Asia-Pacific countries will not have time to become arms exporters.
    And we need to strengthen the explosives beyond the Urals, any conflict gives rise to refugees.
  15. fenix57
    fenix57 2 July 2013 11: 49 New
    0
    Quote: Asgard
    but in the “Kremlin” there is no such intelligence ..

    And where is this intellect “present” if we don’t have it, don’t you know by chance?
    Quote: Asgard
    it's like with a container ship)))) I didn’t upload those ballast tanks and he drowned

    So after all stability calculate it’s necessary (they teach this, and there are programs), the old-timers are responsible for this and our “container ship” will not sink. hi
  16. fenix57
    fenix57 2 July 2013 12: 46 New
    0
    Quote: Dmitry 2246
    Again, the struggle of India and China for spheres of influence

    And not only. China has territorial claims to Pakistan, several islands to the Philippines, claims to Vietnam on oil and gas rich shelves, the Arctic shelf-China makes claims. In December 2012, the PRC submitted to the UN a proposal to demarcate the outer borders of the continental shelf in the East China Sea .... this is not a complete list of discontent from the PRC, so to speak. I will not cover claims to Russia with your permission. So the situation in the Asia-Pacific region is still that ... hi
  17. teodorh
    teodorh 2 July 2013 14: 06 New
    0
    China has territorial claims against almost all its neighbors.
    1. ed65b
      ed65b 2 July 2013 14: 20 New
      +5
      Quote: teodorh
      China has territorial claims against almost all its neighbors.

      To us not. GDP on time settled the issue. And there are enough gorlopans, populists everywhere.
  18. SIT
    SIT 2 July 2013 17: 15 New
    +2
    If someone invests in something, he expects to receive profit from this in the future. Money is a commodity is money. How can I get money by investing it in a weapon? Sell ​​it to someone with a mark-up. OK! But the one who bought it also relies on the profit from their investments. As a result, some kind of end-user must profit from the use of what was acquired for its intended purpose, and not from resale. The direct purpose of weapons to kill. The growth in sales in the arms sector indicates the approach of this moment to the use of weapons for their intended purpose.
  19. Mairos
    Mairos 2 July 2013 17: 32 New
    +1
    ".... give Asia and the Middle East a decade, and these countries will begin to sell world-class equipment," so they suggest not.
  20. bistrov.
    bistrov. 2 July 2013 19: 36 New
    0
    And the pistol of these pretty girls, judging by the holster, is still the same unforgettable TT.
    1. svp67
      svp67 2 July 2013 22: 14 New
      0
      Quote: bistrov.
      And the pistol of these pretty girls, judging by the holster, is still the same unforgettable TT.
      Do not make me laugh. There, most likely, such a Chinese machine

      QSZ-92 pistol under 5.8mm cartridge of Chinese design.
  21. Yazov
    Yazov 2 July 2013 19: 49 New
    0
    Whenever all these weapons are used, no matter where. The main thing is not to get involved in all serious things. A rivet quiet glanders and go to the first position in sales. How much can you pull the economy out of oil and gas?
    1. MG42
      MG42 3 July 2013 00: 41 New
      +2
      Quote: Yazov
      Whenever all these weapons are used, no matter where. The main thing we do not get involved in all serious

      Russia itself is arming China, as if it were not necessary to regret it once, because an insidious plan may be hidden behind a polite smile of a Chinese ..
  22. GovernmentFSO
    GovernmentFSO 3 July 2013 16: 09 New
    0
    iPhones have already crushed!
  23. Mature naturalist
    Mature naturalist 13 August 2013 20: 16 New
    0
    Quote: Skipper
    No offense, minus you.

    Skipper, you don’t understand: Asgard here does not voice fantasies, but information.
    Not everything was written in school books ...