Fighter T-50 offered for export no earlier than 2018 year
The export version of the Russian fighter of the fifth generation T-50 / FGFA will be offered to the world market no earlier than 2018-2020 of the year, said the deputy head of the Center for Analysis of Strategies and Technologies Konstantin Makienko.
The fifth-generation Russian fighter T-50 made a second test flight on February 12 on February 2010. For the first time, he flew into the air on January 29. T-50 will perform a series of test flights in Komsomolsk-on-Amur, after which it will be relocated to the Zhukovsky airfield near Moscow at the Gromov State Research Institute where the main tests will begin.
On December 21, 2010, during a visit to India by Russian President Dmitry Medvedev, was awarded a contract worth 295 million dollars for an outline design of an Indian version of a fighter.
How much will it cost?
"This means that any predictions about the prospects for its export to third countries outside of Russia and India, by definition, will be inaccurate due to the inability to predict what the world will be at this time. But today it is quite possible to describe the key factors determining the export potential of T- 50 / FGFA ", - said Makienko.
The most important of them will be, according to him, the cost of the Russian-Indian machine, the dynamics of the creation of the Chinese project of the fifth generation fighter and the development of unmanned aviation systems. Also among these factors are such basic factors for the arms market as a whole, such as the level of conflict potential and the state of the world economy.
The cost of the fighter will be determined based on how much relatively small states are willing to pay for it.
It is currently assumed that in the 2010 prices of the year the price of the T-50 will be 80-100 million dollars. In this case, the fighter will be available to all modern buyers of Russian Su-30, will surpass the American F-35 by price criterion and remain competitive with respect to a hypothetical Chinese aircraft.
Export volumes
Export volumes of T-50 will also depend on the pace of creation of the fifth-generation Chinese fighter. The Chinese car may become an even more dangerous competitor for the T-50 than the American F-35. Russian weapon It is mainly sold to countries with independent foreign and defense policies, which, as a rule, prefer to purchase non-American equipment, the agency’s source said.
While China did not have serious proposals for military aircraft, on the markets of such states, Russia had either a quasi-monopoly, or competed with the Europeans. "It is clear that the emergence of the fifth generation complex in China will lead to direct and immediate competition between the T-50 and the future of the Chinese aircraft," said Makienko.
Finally, the volume of the market will be determined by new technological trends, the development of which may devalue the value of manned combat aircraft, the expert believes. At present, the main risk of this kind is progress in the field of attack unmanned aircraft systems, he added.
"It remains to hope that by the year 2020 this factor will not have time to have a negative impact on the manned fighter market," Makienko said.
The most likely buyers of T-50 are, a priori, the countries that own Russian heavy Su-27 / 30 fighters, with the exception of the PRC.
"Bad news is that when replacing the Su-30, T-50 purchases will most likely not be carried out in a one-to-one, but in the best case one to one and a half, ”said Makienko.
Markets
According to the expert, the most promising markets are the states of Southeast Asia, which for political reasons will not consider the possibility of purchases in China. This, above all, Vietnam, as well as Malaysia and Indonesia. With a high degree of confidence, the expert assumes that Algeria will also preserve the loyalty of the Russian technology.
"With respect to such a traditional buyer of Soviet technology as Libya, there is uncertainty associated with the unclear prospects for the political orientation of this country in the event of the natural reasons for its already elderly leader," said Makienko.
The Libyan state since 1969, led by Muammar Gaddafi.
Due to the high risk of changing the political regime and curtailing the Bolivarian revolutionary project of the current President Hugo Chávez, it is difficult to predict the Venezuelan orders after 2020. In the case of preservation of the left-wing government in this country, Russia will face the Chinese aviation industry, which has already won a victory here in the segment of training aircraft, predicts the agency’s source.
“Finally, one can hope that some post-Soviet republics, first of all, Kazakhstan and Belarus, will become a natural market for Russian aircraft,” the expert said.
He regretted that such potential Russian markets as Iran and Syria would most likely be under the control of China.
“In any case, the Russian political leadership, which canceled contracts for the supply of Iskander-E operational-tactical complexes to Syria, and C-300PMU-2 air defense missiles to Iran, is actively working in favor of just such a scenario,” Makienko said.
On the other hand, according to him, through 10-20, for years Russia may open up markets that today seem incredible. In one step from the purchase of the Su-30 once was Thailand.
"In the 20-30 years, perhaps, the enormous economic potential of Myanmar is asleep today," the expert suggested.
For Argentina, purchasing a T-50 would be an excellent asymmetric response to Brazilian plans to acquire 36, and in the future - 120 from the French Rafale.
"Today one thing is clear - the Russian-Indian alliance will definitely be one of the three world players in the fifth generation fighter market. This means that Russia guaranteed itself the status of a global aviation industry for the entire first half of the 21st century," said Makienko.
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