F-35 vs Su-35: the meeting will take place in the skies of Syria
Yes, no matter how strange this statement may seem, it is a fact: the meeting of two planes with the same numbers, but different letters, can happen much earlier than everyone expected.
If you look closely at this something happening between Iran and Israel, and we have already examined what is happening more than once, then it is worth noting and summarizing several facts.
1. The countries are openly in a state of hostility. Yes, story Iranian-Israeli relations are replete with warming and cold, but today the countries are at the peak of hostility, as evidenced by their actions.
2. Israel repelled a massive Iranian attack. With difficulties. With the help of the USA, Great Britain, Jordan and even (but this is not very precise) France.
300 drones and an assortment of missiles were met by an armada of 212 aircraft. And these were serious aircraft: F-15, F-16, Rafales, Typhoons and even F-35, the work of which was again either classified or invisible.
3. Iran was able to repel Israel's retaliatory attack on Iran's retaliatory attack for the attack on the embassy in Syria, without particularly straining, and practically without using its air force. But more on that below.
Parity? Perhaps. Iran fought back calmly, Israel fought back using so many aviation and air defense systems, which, perhaps, have not been flown since the end of the Gulf Wars. But how much Iran launched and how much Israel launched - there is also a difference.
Iran's armadas of modernized Soviet missiles and drones have put Israel under great strain. The question is: did Israel play to its fullest when attacking Iran? And this is a very good question, because in theory, the Israeli Air Force will do whatever they want, because there is nothing special to respond to Iran in terms of aviation.
Let's first look at the Iranian Air Force and Air Defense.
Air defense is represented by copies. Chinese HQ-7, which is a copy of the French “Crotale”, “Sayad”, which is a copy of our S-75, “Fajr-8”, a copy of the S-200 and “Bavar-373”, a copy of the S-300. In the original there are only S-300 (32 launchers) “Shell” and “Torah”, which protect the very nuclear facilities that Israel has been sharpening its grudge against for so long.
Toothy and numerous. This is the same case when quantity can turn into quality, but you don’t have to worry about quantity, because Iran has riveted missiles for three wars. Moreover, a copy of the S-75 is not an S-75, the missile there is modernized to the best of its ability by the Iranian military-industrial complex and differs from the Soviet one just as the BM-13 “Katyusha” projectile differs from the BM-21 “Grad” projectile.
In general, there are enough complexes and missiles in abundance. That's what the Iranian media say, at least. And the fact that the Israeli attack was repulsed by air defense forces without much effort is the best proof of this.
But the Iranian Air Force...
The Iranian Air Force took part in repelling the Israeli attack, but... How can I say this, indicating its participation more than actually making a contribution to the battle. A squadron of “Phantoms” that simply forgot about their age, and these are really F-4Ds that “shone” in the skies of Vietnam - this is not air defense help. And I won’t undertake to answer the question why they even lifted these antiques into the air. Too different understanding of processes with Iranian headquarters.
But let’s leave this strange act, in the end, they know better who to lift into the air.
But overall, the Iranian Air Force is a very sad sight. Yes, you can modernize and improve rockets as long as you like, but a rocket is much simpler in design than an airplane. Because Iran has missiles (very decent ones), but with airplanes everything is much worse.
The Iranian developments HESA “Saeqeh” and HESA “Azarakhsh” remained one-piece reverse copies of the F-5 “Tiger II” originally from the 70s of the last century.
Imported aircraft in Iran's service are also not new. The main link is the American F-14 “Tomcat”, manufactured in 1974-76 of the last century. At the cost of incredible efforts, the Iranians were able to start producing spare parts for this aircraft, so the almost fifty-year-old veterans are still in service.
The F-14 was a very good aircraft for its time, but let’s face it, it was unreasonably expensive to operate. That is why it was happily replaced with the F/A-18. Iran remains the last country in the world to operate the F-14.
In addition to Tomcats, the Iranian Air Force has MiG-29 (36 units) and Mirage F1 (10 units). In 1991, they flew from Iraq, which was being destroyed by the allied coalition. These planes have also seen the worst side of life, and you shouldn’t count on them.
In general, whatever one may say, the Iranians need a new air fleet. It's really not about some rattling here. weapons in a showdown with Israel, the region is really explosive, we need to think about the defense of air borders. And doing this with fifty-year-old F-14s and MiG-29s is difficult and dangerous, because you still have to soberly look at who these planes are more dangerous for, for the enemy or for their pilots.
According to estimates, today Iran needs about 116 fighters and multi-role aircraft. Since it is very doubtful that if a procurement competition had been announced, there would have been a line of people willing to sell the aircraft, then in reality there are only one and a half suppliers: Russia and China, with China being the other half. They may not deliver, yesterday the Chinese sold Iran a number of their F-7s, this is an aircraft created from our MiG-21, but then somehow everything died down. Whether China will cooperate with Iran tomorrow is a slightly obscure question, which means that no one except Russia will give Iran any more aircraft.
It is clear here that Tehran has studied the issue very carefully, and since barter can take place here, naturally, the old MiG-29 and its rejuvenated MiG-35 project are not of interest to the Iranians. They need aircraft “here and now,” which means we are talking about the Su-35SE and Su-34. In the future - Su-57.
And Iran can afford to ask for such equipment, and Russia can provide such equipment.
And in the winter of 2022, the ice was broken, and the parties finally agreed that 24 Su-35SE, which were intended for Egypt, but which it practically abandoned, would go to Iran. In general, the Su-35SE differs very little from the Su-35S, so there is no need to worry about deterioration in combat qualities.
The story, of course, was interesting, shrouded in many rumors and gossip, a real aviation “Santa Barbara”, in which there was more than enough intrigue, scandals and misinformation. Yes, the delivery of the aircraft was somehow delayed, and this gave rise to rumors and gossip, in which many Russian information agents were noticed.
Remember, at the end of the summer and beginning of the fall of last year, many of our media and bloggers (especially) erupted in a flurry of angry cries towards Iran? They say, not allies, but so-so and stuff like that? It was like that, yes. Fortunately, the Iranians were spared the stupidity and haste of some, and therefore the deal was completed in November. In general, this is very much in the spirit of the East: to confuse your own people and unconditionally confuse everyone else. And then “suddenly” - once - and everything grew together.
We watched as transport flights from Russia arrived at the best airport in Iran, in Tehran. Then many said that the planes inside were from the contracted batch, but, of course, there were no planes there. Simulators that you can’t do without, equipment for aircraft maintenance, communications, and so on. In general, who said that Iran only bought planes or that the deal only included planes? All the necessary infrastructure must be there. So they dragged her.
And now the Iranian state agency IRNA and the IRGC media reported that the first combat aircraft with already trained pilots and technicians will arrive in Iran in the last week of April 2024. That is, the training was carried out here, which is very, very good. For Iranians, of course.
Can 24 of the latest Su-35S change the situation? Of course not. Israel's comrades then took to the skies 212 planes that were by no means old brands. However, not all the planes there were, so to speak, permanently based. And I can’t say how it will turn out in terms of quantity next time. Aircraft carriers are leaving, ground units are leaving too, the region, as you understand, is complex.
24 aircraft is just a regiment. Not a bad punch. Of course, this is very little to say that all of Iran’s problems will be solved. But if you remember what was initially said about the option for 67 aircraft, it becomes more interesting.
But even a regiment, in principle, is enough to significantly shorten the arms of Israeli pilots who are launching missiles at Damascus from the airspace of Lebanon with impunity. Or in Lebanon, where Hezbollah allegedly sits.
This is, in fact, not so important. The important thing is that Iran will have a real tool to influence the situation in the region.
Speaking about any counteraction to Israeli aviation, clearly it can only be Iran. The Syrian army, alas, at the best of times was not anything serious, both in terms of technology and in terms of personnel training, and today even more so, it is not a formation that should be highly valued.
So the skies of Syria are not as calm for the Israelis as the skies of Jordan or Lebanon, but nevertheless, it is on the territory of this country, in some of its regions, that the confrontation between Israel and Iran will take place.
That is, this will happen in the following way: Israel will attack the targets of Iran and its allies (you understand who we are talking about) with the help of aviation, which is logical, because Israel does not have its own arsenal of ballistic and cruise missiles. Therefore, it will be more difficult for the Israelis to attack targets on Iranian territory.
Yes, Israel has ballistic missiles, but the Jerichos have been produced in such minuscule quantities that they cannot be compared with the Iranian missile arsenals. Rather, it is a last-strike weapon using nuclear warheads, which, as we know, Israel does not have.
The USA has missiles. The only question is whether Washington really wants to set the region on fire by transferring these missiles to Israel.
But Iran has such an arsenal. And therefore it can afford such attacks as we have witnessed. Israel will also repel with the help of the air force and air defense, but will be able to deliver retaliatory strikes only with the help of its frankly good air fleet, consisting of F-16, F-15 and F-35. Only 30 F-35s and 25 F-15E Strike Eagles can be called newest, but this number, supported by hundreds of older F-15 and F-16 aircraft of various modifications, is strong. And most importantly, it cannot be compared with what Iran can take off.
Therefore, Iran needs aircraft that can somehow contain the Israeli Air Force. And here, perhaps, the issue is not in the F-35I, it’s just that “Adir” will not go with “Sushki”, it’s not the right plane. The problem is that the F-35I can launch missiles very well from stealth, but going into open battle, as Indian and Pakistani/Russian and Ukrainian aircraft did, is overkill.
The Su-35S is a problematic competitor, and its missiles are unpleasant. Here the question is not even a matter of prestige, although you can get a kick in the reputation, it’s a matter of the cost of the experiment. Each F-35I costs too much money to be thrown into the next-generation dog dump like that.
It is impossible to say exactly how different the F-35I is from the standard F-35A. Radar. This is a very important point; the parties very jealously keep clear parameters of their stations. Electronic warfare systems. Here Israel has always been strong, there is no doubt about it. The Israeli control and communications system is understandable, convenient for the Israelis in every sense, but does not provide any advantage in battle. So - radar and electronic warfare, that's all that distinguishes an Israeli aircraft from an American one.
The problem is that the F-35 is a very expensive aircraft. If we take the F-35I specifically, each aircraft cost Israel $144 million. This is together with service packages, replacement of American equipment with Israeli equipment, and so on. $144. This is a lot even for an ultra-modern aircraft, and therefore, if you look closely at the use of the F-000 by other countries, it has not been seen anywhere in the forefront. Even in repelling an Iranian attack. Somewhere there, on the sidelines, nothing more. In the Israeli Air Force's plan, there were attacks on Gaza, where the F-000I did not threaten anything from the ground.
Right, what's the point in landing a trolley like this with dollars? It was not bought to be lost for nothing.
And here we come to the main thing. What is the point of any comparison? In understanding the fact that or who can do better.
1. Airplanes. Theoretically, they are from different generations.
The F-35 seems to be more inconspicuous (of course, it was so actively hidden all over the world), the fifth generation, but how it will be used in combat is a big question.
The Su-35S is worse in terms of visibility, but the plane is completely flown and fired upon. And you can very well predict what to expect from him in battle. I agree that the Su-35 did not have any normal opponents in the skies of Ukraine, but that is not its fault at all. The F-35I had no opponents at all.
2. Flight crew.
Here we can assume that the level of training of Israeli pilots will theoretically be higher. Plus, they are, as they say, more experienced than their Iranian counterparts. On the other hand, the Israeli pilots worked in conditions of zero resistance, but the Russian specialists who trained the Iranian pilots certainly did this taking into account the data obtained from the use of the Su-35S in the air defense system.
In this situation, the Israelis look preferable, but this advantage will disappear as Iranian pilots fly their planes in real conditions.
3. Engineering and technical staff.
Here, the Israelis clearly have an advantage, since they have been operating aircraft in service for a long time.
It will be very difficult for Iranian engineers and technicians, the gap between the aircraft they have and the newest Su-35 is too deep. Moreover, of our equipment they only had MiG-29s, and even then, Iraqi ones. That is, Russian technology itself is not “native” to them. There was no experience in operating Soviet aircraft, from which, by analogy, one can move on to the Russian ones of the next generation. And this, plus the novelty of the Su-35S, does not play into the hands of the Iranians. It will really be very difficult for them on earth.
4. Armament.
Well, here the F-35I has no special advantages; there are no masterpieces in the list of weapons. Standard NATO ammunition, time-tested and, on the one hand, reliable, on the other hand, there are enough methods of combat in them.
The Su-35 has one type of weapons, it is not known whether Iran will get it or not, but the R-37E with a range of up to 200 km has very great prospects, because a plane taking off from Damascus airfield can easily tickle the nerves of those who will hang out in the neutral zone near Beirut (from where launches usually take place on Syrian territory). And here, one launch in the direction of the aircraft available there is enough, and then let them figure out for themselves who God will send them to, as they say.
In general, the F-35I does not have any special advantages. Yes, most likely, it really shines less on radar screens, however, as many Israeli planes as I have seen, they fly with drop tanks, which in itself negates all stealth. Of course, these are just photos and videos, but still.
Otherwise... Not critical. Indeed, it’s not critical, even if we don’t know the features of the F-35I. Therefore, the meeting that will inevitably take place on the confrontation line between Israel and Iran will show who is tougher in a real battle.
Line of confrontation.
Where this is is a difficult question. The sudden warming of relations between Jordan and Israel, which led to Jordan practically becoming an ally of Israel in repelling the Iranian attack, makes it clear that only Syria remains. A gray and practically uncontrolled territory (Iraq is still held by the Americans, albeit not all of it), over which, as it turns out, a lot can be done.
So it turns out that Jordan and Iraq will be closed to Iran, but from Syrian airspace it is very easy to control the airspace in all directions. A very good position; if the Syrians still had reasonable air defense, it would be absolutely wonderful. Well, if only the Syrian army were a little more organized.
And, if the F-35I and Su-35 meet somewhere, it will be in Syria. When is a matter of a small amount of time. Sooner or later (I’m sure sooner) Iraq will begin to study attempts to level out the total advantage of the Israeli Air Force.
We must hope that all this will happen under the control of our specialists, who will definitely gain valuable experience in both using the Su-35S and studying the real capabilities of the F-35I.
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