Combat debutants: US Navy SM-3 interceptor against Iranian missiles
So, “True Promise” turned out to be very truthful: they promised to screw it up - they did it. Applause towards Iran, missiles and Drones whose defenses were broken through... no, not Israel. The further into the Western media, the more participants in this operation are revealed.
It turns out that even France is now a winner there, as usual. There are no exact data on the actions of the French, but it seems like they participated. But even without these specialists in taking advantage of other people’s successes, in fact, a whole anti-Iranian anti-missile coalition from Israel, the USA, Great Britain, Jordan, Iraq and Bahrain turned out. Dozens of radars and almost hundreds of anti-aircraft missile batteries, and to them dozens of aircraft and ships designed for air defense. Plus AWACS, satellites and reconnaissance aircraft.
Today the scale is impressive. It turns out that for every Shahed or missile there was something like an Iron Dome, Patriot or aircraft launcher. And it’s quite possible that there will be more!
Now, if anyone were to take bets on this matter, they certainly wouldn’t bet much on Iran, knowing what kind of power is concentrated against it. However, despite everything, the Westerners themselves admit that 90% were shot down. That is, “all the royal cavalry and all the royal army” could not defeat, well, honestly, not the most advanced missiles in the world. And there is something to think about.
In total, Iran has about a dozen models of medium- and long-range missiles capable of reaching Israel. Yes, the isolation imposed on Iran greatly affected the country’s armament, but the Iranians took and significantly improved everything that could be taken from Soviet developments of the last century. And this is such an indisputable fact that it is simply impossible to argue with.
Let me divert your attention: if I were the Japanese, I would now think about it very hard, because the Iranians basically copied North Korean missiles, so there is something to puzzle over in Tokyo.
Among those launched to the West from Iran were quite serious things from the high-precision squad: the hypersonic Fattah-1 and the ballistic Khaybar Shekan and Emad. All three took part in Operation True Promise and achieved their goal. How is the third question, and here I would like to say a few words on the topic.
"Fattah-1"
"Khaybar Shekan"
"Emad"
How the Iranians got there - we most likely will not find out soon. Remember in 2020, Iran also carried out the “Martyr of Soleimani” retaliation action? Then, as revenge for the death of General Soleimani, the IRGC fired its missiles at the Al-Assad base in Iraq, the base was, of course, the US Army.
For two weeks, all American media reported how crooked the Iranians’ missiles were, how they hit sand in the desert, those that were not shot down, and if any of the 11 declared missiles hit, it was “extremely inaccurate.”
As a result, two months later it suddenly became clear that 19 Iranian missiles, which broke through the American air defenses, destroyed several hangars and sent one F-16 and one UH-60 helicopter to scrap. Plus, more than a hundred American military personnel sought medical help with traumatic brain injuries.
Of course, the Americans were silent about the dead in four languages. There were no deaths, but if you scour the press well, at that time there was a surge in the deaths of US military personnel at bases from various domestic causes.
The same will happen now. Complete silence and non-recognition. And then something will come up. But at the very least, it would be strange if at each target designated by the Iranian military for destruction, there was an operator with a camera and recorded the fact of the hit. Stupid and funny, really.
And the Israelis generally have complete order with censorship, so if something leaks out, it will be information drop by drop. But Jerusalem will never directly admit that their over-praised “Iron Dome” failed, and those missiles, which the Iranian military initially did not intend to serve as an air defense overload, passed through the Israeli defense and worked where they were intended.
For example, there is evidence that just four Fattahs exploded on the runway of the Nevatim airbase, the same one from which the F-35s that attacked the embassy took off. Yes, the Persians are fine with demonstrating their thoughts, completely normal.
What's on the other side?
There were also prime ministers on the other side. The confrontation operation definitely involved two Arleigh Burke-class destroyers that were patrolling somewhere in the eastern Mediterranean. Apparently from the cover group of the aircraft carrier Eisenhower, from whose deck the F-35s operated. The Carney emitters and the old Arleigh Burke himself shot down 4 missiles between them (3 and 1, respectively).
There is information from the well-respected and unnoticed portal The War Zone that while repelling the attack, the destroyers used the latest Standard Missile-3 (SM-3) interceptor missiles and this was the first use of missiles in combat mode. The application was successful, there is no doubt about that either. The only question is what the destroyers were firing at, because after the practical question a financial question arises.
It’s one thing if the SM-3, which costs from 10 million dollars apiece, was successfully launched at a modern ballistic or cruise missile and hit the target, and a completely different thing if the SM-3 was launched by some kind of decoy like something not so new (“Sajil” or “Kadir” would be quite suitable), then this, of course, is a complete sadness.
In general, of course, there is nothing wrong with the fact that the Middle Eastern test site is becoming an arena for testing new types of weapons. No worse than the Ukrainian one, and in some ways even better. There is no such danger that the equipment will fall into the hands of the enemy. And such tests are worth their weight in gold.
Currently, the main interceptor missiles used in the Aegis missile defense system are the SM-3 and SM-6 variants. The SM-6 is capable of hitting ballistic missiles, as well as apparently new hypersonic missiles at the end of their flight, although this ability is still in doubt. This missile is also multi-purpose weapons, which can be used against a number of other air targets, as well as targets located on the surface of the ocean and land.
The SM-6 reportedly made its operational debut relatively recently in operations in and around the Red Sea to protect commercial shipping as well as friendly warships from ballistic, cruise missiles and drones launched by Iran-backed Houthi militants in Yemen.
The SM-3 series interceptor missiles are capable of hitting ballistic missiles, including intercontinental ballistic missiles (ICBMs), beyond the Earth's atmosphere during their mid-flight phase. The SM-3 has demonstrated its capabilities against various levels of ballistic missiles in tests, and one missile was used to destroy a rogue US spy satellite in 2008.
The SM-3 is not known to have been used against actual combat targets before, but many tests have been conducted over the decades. The first combat use of the SM-3 was an important milestone for the SM-3 program, which has passed all the milestones of a long and very complex, and at times controversial, path of its development.
There are other signs of SM-3 use. Several videos have emerged showing transatmospheric intercepts over Israel, with visible plumes that could be from warheads separating from the rest of the interceptor missile, or from actual impact with the target missile.
But it's worth remembering that Israel's own Arrow 3 interceptor missiles are also capable of hitting targets beyond the Earth's atmosphere. Arrow 3 kinetic interceptors, as well as the previous generation Arrow 2, were clearly among the air defense systems that the IDF used last night. Israel has a very extensive, multi-layered integrated air and missile defense network with other systems that have varying degrees of terminal missile defense capability. These include David's Sling with Stunner interceptors and American-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems.
It is possible that both SM-3 and Arrow 3 were engaged during that night. It was logical; there can never be too many countermeasures.
Be that as it may, Iranian strikes are exactly the scenario that the Aegis missile defense system was developed to counter. Against medium-range ballistic missile attacks, in particular from Iran or other states. The US military has other air and missile defense assets, including AN/TPY-2 radar stations in Israel, Turkey, and Poland, specifically designed to monitor and, if necessary, help intercept incoming threats from Iran.
Israeli Iron Dome defense systems and warplanes were actively involved in intercepting incoming cruise missiles and drones. A video released by the IDF shows Sumar cruise missiles being shot down and drones-kamikaze "Shahed-136" or their modifications/derivatives.
US Navy Arleigh Burke-class destroyers, US combat aircraft and ground-based air defense systems (which may include Patriot and Terminal air defense systems) in the region have also shot down non-ballistic Iranian targets heading towards Israel. According to the US military, which was replicated by many media outlets, the US Air Force F-15E Strike Eagle was especially active. The planes are said to have shot down dozens of drones and cruise missiles while acting as an anti-aircraft barrier between Iran and Israel as Iranian weapons crossed borders into Syrian and Jordanian airspace.
White House Press Release:
“This morning, President Biden spoke with members of the 494th and 335th Fighter Squadrons to commend them for their exceptional airmanship and skill in defending Israel from an unprecedented Iranian air attack.”
The 494th Fighter Squadron, based at Lakenheath in the United Kingdom, and the 335th Fighter Squadron, based at Seymour Johnson Air Force Base in North Carolina, are the units equipped with the F-15E.
They are modestly silent about the fierce successes of the F-35 and F/A-18.
US Navy, British and Jordanian fighter jets also helped destroy missiles and drones launched by Iran. French troops also supported defensive operations, but it is currently unclear whether they have any combat credits to their credit.
So, who got what?
The States and Israel urgently need to put a good face on a very bad game. Overall, in addition to the potential first combat use of the SM-3, Iran's actions have provided the coalition of countries defending Israel with significant real-world experience defending against large-scale missile and drone strikes, as well as major intelligence on the actual capabilities possessed by the regime in Tehran. All of this underscores the value of the U.S. military's decades-long effort to better integrate air and missile defense capabilities in the region.
However, it became clear that, despite all the efforts and integration of one into the other, the system built by the United States and Israel, to put it mildly, is not ideal. The Dome has holes, and the Patriots are not as patriotic in the Middle East as their creators and buyers would like.
The biggest question now is not how Israel will respond to Iran's actions. The Israel Defense Forces said it had already carried out strikes on targets in Lebanon in response to missiles that Iran-backed Hezbollah militants also launched last night. The question is how Iran will behave next and how much Israel will have enough (I would bet that it won’t) in terms of ammunition reserves to repel a more serious attack. Let's say, from 500 vehicles and missiles.
Moreover, for its part, Iran promised to respond in kind to any direct attacks from Israel, and also promised to strike at any country that would assist in such an operation. As everyone has already seen, Iran does not throw words in the sand. And if Israel stops its vicious practice, which allows it to strike wherever it pleases, then the population of this country will not have to worry.
Of course, Israel is not a poor country, their money is in order, and they always have help from the United States behind them, but... But 12 million for an SM-3 missile is 12 million. Dollars "Patriot" costs 3-4 million dollars apiece. Tamir missile from Iron Dome - $0,15 million.
No matter how luxurious the SM-3 interceptor missile is, its cost is simply prohibitive. Instead of one such missile, you can purchase 80 missiles for the Iron Dome. This is an interesting arrangement. And if the SM-3 hits 10 out of 10, it still is not a defensive option, especially for Israel.
Products are flying from Iran that will not be destroyed - they will simply be ruined. An interceptor capable of working against hypersonic gliders is luxurious. It's useful, it's safe. But if “Shaheds” and ballistics fly en masse, the mass use of SM-3 will be simply ruinous.
By the way, this is why American destroyers have had such modest success. Yes, 4 missiles were shot down. You don’t need more, more is very expensive. In practice, we were convinced that the SM-3 works well, and that’s all. Enough. Helped an ally and tested our weapons in battle. Thanks to everybody, you're free.
It is impossible to say that the SM-3 acted against Iran’s latest developments. But calling what flew to Israel junk is also unfair; these are developments of the last 10-12 years. Let's not take Shahed-136; it was actually used to distract attention.
The Iranian army launched Paveh and Emad, the IRGC issued Fattah-1. All this can be called relatively new developments, and if they caused problems for the allied air defense system, then what will happen if we use trump cards with a crowd of old missiles and drones, that is, something that the Iranians do not advertise at all today?
And the world's intelligence services have a strong belief that Iran has something to keep in its secret caches on this topic. Something from the area of the same “Fattah-1”, which is not the army, but the IRGC, which is a state within a state.
Yes, by the way, the debut of the missile from the Guardian Corps turned out to be heartfelt: the IRNA agency reported that the IRGC launched 7 missiles and all seven reached their targets. Representatives of the Corps generally reported in detail, praising their rocket: it flies 1400 km, and the speed is up to 15 Mach. On the other hand, they have long been saying that 15M is a fairy tale, that Iran’s missiles cannot fly at such a speed, but... there is not much difference in whether 15M, 10M or 8M is the true speed for Fattah-1. Even 10M is an “impossible” speed for NATO complexes, and what is there to play with numbers if Iran today has a hypersonic missile that the United States does not have?
The first-born of Tehran's Fattah-1 hypersonic program. It’s no longer “cartoons”, but the harsh reality in the Middle East. Personnel
As a result, it turns out that Iran and the United States conducted excellent tests for each side. Iran showed the whole world that its missiles are a force to be reckoned with; moreover, it was a magnificent demonstration carried out by the Iranian military itself, and not with the help of a third party. The enchanting arrival of four missiles at the Nevatim base, which was caught on video, became one of the proofs that the Iranian missiles hit where they were intended. And, of course, there are not nine of them, as the official structures of Israel and NATO admitted, there are more of them.
Accuracy... The accuracy will be known later, I’m sure information will leak out, but if you compare the hits of absolutely “crooked” Iranian missiles on Israeli and American bases and how Israel’s ultra-precise “smart” bombs hit Gaza, I think everything will fall into place.
The United States can be congratulated on its new interceptors. But for the kind of money that manufacturers are asking for these missiles, they honestly couldn’t do better.
Israel... Today some people there are starting to coo about “we will not forget, we will not forgive, we will take revenge on everyone in kind,” but this talk about “an adequate response to Iran” - honestly, first it would be worth shaking up your (and not only your) system Air defense, and then start thinking. 300 missiles and motorized UAVs showed that Israel cannot fight back on its own. And with the help of such a kagal, everything also looks dubious to the point of hiccups.
What if Iran sends a set of 400 units? Out of 500? What will happen in place of Jerusalem? Gaza?
The tests have passed. The results have been demonstrated and information has been received. Now all parties need to think, and think first of all, with their heads.
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