Supplies and problems: Patriot systems for Ukraine
Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems transferred to the Kyiv regime in 2023. Photo Telegram / "Military Informant"
Last year, after lengthy requests, the Kiev regime received several American-made Patriot anti-aircraft missile systems and ammunition from abroad. The fleet of such equipment suffered serious losses, and attempts to solicit foreign assistance continued with renewed vigor. However, not all foreign allies are ready to immediately provide new air defense systems in the required quantities.
Passed on and lost
The Patriot air defense system, like other American-made models, was the dream of the Kyiv regime for quite a long time, but it was not possible to obtain them. Only in the spring of 2023 did the United States and its allies promise to allocate a certain amount of such equipment to Ukraine. Approximately in April, the systems were delivered to Ukrainian territory, and at the end of the month it became known that they were put on combat duty.
According to official data, only three countries shipped Patriot products - the USA, Germany and the Netherlands. From the availability of the American army, one battery set was then transferred, the Bundeswehr allocated a battery and a couple of additional launchers. Two more installations were provided by the Netherlands without other funds. In addition, the Kiev regime received an undisclosed number of missiles.
On May 16, 2023, it became known that the Russian Aerospace Forces, using the Kinzhal hypersonic missile, hit the position of the Patriot air defense system in Kyiv. All system assets were destroyed and damaged, including the radar and control systems. Even if individual components survived, the system as a whole lost its combat effectiveness.
Patriot launcher somewhere in Ukraine. Photo: Thedrive.com
Subsequently, new losses of Ukrainian air defense were repeatedly reported. According to known data, to date, at least 1-2 detection and control radars have been destroyed, as well as about 10-12 launchers with the corresponding ammunition. It is known that missile and artillery weapons depots, which could contain Patriot ammunition, were hit and destroyed.
After all these events, in January 2024, the United States announced a replacement for the Patriot battery transferred to Ukraine. Apparently, these measures were related to the need to repair the systems existing in the Kyiv regime. It is likely that some radars and combat vehicles were not destroyed by Russian strikes, but were still damaged and can no longer continue combat duty.
Thus, no more than 2-3 batteries of incomplete Patriot air defense systems remain in service with Ukrainian air defense formations. It is obvious that such units cannot fully solve combat missions.
New needs
At the end of March, the leadership of the Kyiv regime with renewed vigor began to demand American air defense systems from foreign partners. It is curious that this time Ukrainian leaders have ceased to be shy in their expressions, and are also not modest in quantitative terms. Thus, Foreign Minister Dmitry Kuleba demanded that almost all the “damn Patriot complexes” available in Europe be transferred to Ukraine. However, he did not address specific countries, probably to avoid negative consequences.
MIM-104 rocket that fell in Kyiv, May 2023. Photo Telegram / BMPD
In early April, D. Kuleba complained about his treacherous partners. According to him, allied countries have about a hundred “Patriots”, but do not want to give even 5-7 complexes. In this regard, he even promised to spoil the celebrations marking the 75th anniversary of NATO with inconvenient questions.
Soon, Ukrainian President Vladimir Zelensky outlined the wishes of his regime in the field of air defense. He said that to completely cover the territory of Ukraine, 25 Patriot systems are required, each of which should have 6-8 batteries. Zelensky also noted that foreign partners know about this and are aware of how the air defense systems will be distributed throughout the country.
It is easy to calculate that 25 systems (battalions/divisions) of 6-8 batteries each give a total of 150-200 batteries. These are 25 detection radars and the same number of control points, as well as up to 900-1200 launchers, thousands of anti-aircraft missiles and hundreds of units of auxiliary equipment. It is unknown where Zelensky proposes to get such a quantity of materiel. Apparently, constant stress and abuse of specific drugs prevent him from adequately assessing the situation.
It can also be assumed that due to the same negative factors, the president confused systems/battalions with batteries, and batteries with launchers. In this case, the wishes of the Kyiv regime look more realistic, although their implementation also remains in question.
Foreign response
On April 12, Polish President Andrzej Duda responded to Ukrainian requests. He stated that the Polish army cannot provide Ukraine with Patriot air defense systems. The reasons for this are simple - it does not yet have its own air defense and missile defense system. According to A. Duda, even if Poland wanted to help the Kyiv regime, it would have nothing to give.
The Patriot air defense system covering Kyiv is trying to work on air targets, May 2023. Photo Telegram / BMPD
Soon the topic of “Patriots” was again raised by D. Kuleba. He proposed placing such systems on Polish territory, but using them to cover the western part of Ukraine. Warsaw and other countries have not yet commented on this “military trick” and its possible consequences.
Germany's reaction to Ukrainian needs turned out to be interesting. Thus, on April 9, German Foreign Minister Annalena Bärbock stated that the country’s capabilities in the context of the supply of Patriot air defense systems have been exhausted. In this regard, Germany and its allies are looking for opportunities to buy these systems from third countries.
However, already on April 13, the German Ministry of Defense made a different decision. The agency announced the transfer of another battery of Patriot air defense systems. Delivery should begin soon, but the exact dates of shipment and deployment on Ukrainian territory have not been specified. What exactly made Germany change its position in just a few days is a big question with a predictable answer.
Anti-aircraft missile shortage
Thus, the situation around American air defense systems for Ukrainian air defense remains difficult, and there are no prerequisites for changing it for the better for the Kyiv regime - and are unlikely to appear. Last year, despite its best efforts, Ukraine was only able to obtain three Patriot battery kits and four additional launchers. Only a year after that, another battery was found.
New supplies appear to be impossible or unlikely. Several main factors contribute to this development. The bulk of them have not changed over the past year, but a new one has appeared, directly related to the activities and successes of the Russian army.
Defeat of the Patriot air defense missile system in the area of the village. Sergeevka (DPR), March 2024. Photo of the Russian Ministry of Defense
To provide assistance as quickly as possible, foreign partners are transferring air defense systems from their armies to the Kyiv regime. At the same time, without compromising their own air defense, they were able to allocate only a few batteries. Accordingly, sending new aid will lead to a deterioration in their own defense capabilities, which not all countries are willing to do.
A way out of this situation could be the production of new Patriots specifically for delivery to Ukraine. However, this requires funding, and in significant amounts, as well as production time. Now Raytheon is ready to produce up to 10-12 batteries per year, and in addition, it is busy fulfilling orders from other countries. How soon in such conditions it will be possible to assemble air defense systems for the Kyiv regime is unclear. Moreover, under certain circumstances, the current Ukrainian air defense may simply not survive to receive new equipment.
Since last year, there has been another factor - the influence of the Russian army. Patriot systems are a priority target, and our troops are literally on the hunt for them. Foreign countries see and understand this, and they hardly want to give up their air defense systems and spoil their defense capabilities.
On the eve of the defeat
To date, the Russian armed forces have successfully destroyed most of the Ukrainian air defenses available at the beginning of 2022. Foreign allies provided the Kyiv regime with a number of new systems and complexes, but they too were subject to forced force demilitarization.
However, the Kiev regime is still trying to obtain the desired weapons and equipment in order to continue the resistance and extend its existence. However, foreign partners are no longer able or willing to provide materiel in the required quantities and provide other necessary assistance. Moreover, it does not look like they are really going to save the Kiev regime from complete defeat.
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