Is Rafale a betrayal or a necessary measure for Serbia?
Yes, a very interesting picture emerges: Serbia, a friend-ally in Europe, probably one of the last, and suddenly makes such a feint by buying French Rafales. This was already confirmed by the country's President Vučić, saying that “concrete agreements” had been reached on the purchase of 12 aircraft.
For Serbia, which mainly operates with Russian weapons, the step seems to be quite strange, and the editorial office received several articles from “angry patriots.” Actually, the Internet is full of this: “there was no point in harnessing them,” “traitors,” “the same brothers,” and so on. The usual philistine stupidity of people who live by emotions and do not want to carefully consider the issue.
And we will look carefully, especially since on the Balkan issue I have two consultants who live in Serbia and have spent a lot of effort and time so that I understand what this serpentine corner called the Balkans is. Without understanding this, you can’t talk about airplanes; everything is very closely connected there.
So, Serbia is buying 12 Rafale fighters. The same ones that Croatia bought a little earlier, for about the same cost: about three billion dollars.
The French, of course, are happy, they have a breakthrough. This is already the seventh contract for the sale of Rafales, sales of which, we honestly admit, started so-so. Yes, and Serbia and Croatia - well, these are not buyers, a regiment for two - so-so, but the trouble has begun, pieces of the former Russian market are being chewed off. And there is something to be happy about, no doubt.
Vucic, as always, is making a hysterical show out of the purchase; the agreement will be signed in the presence of as many as two presidents, Serbia and France.
Serbia will use the Rafales for a much-needed modernization of its aging fighter fleet, which consists of Soviet MiG-29 fighters acquired by Yugoslavia in the 80s and diluted (those that survived after 1999) with Russian and Belarusian ones. new MiG-29.
It is obvious that the Rafale is significantly more combat-ready than the MiG-29, which comes from the last century. In general, the Serbian Air Force has as many as 14 MiG-29s, which need to be replaced with something. If it is necessary, of course, the country does not seem to be going to fight yet, but the MiGs are already obvious aircraft junk.
The Rafale comes standard with RBE2 Active Electronically Scanned Array (AESA) radar, Link 16 data link, updated Spectra self-defense/electronic warfare suite and automatic ground collision avoidance system.
The weapons package now includes, among other things, an MBDA Meteor long-range air-to-air missile (which, we note, the French, if they are not fools, would never sell to the Serbs), a Thales TALIOS guidance container and a high-precision product "air-to-ground" Sagem Hammer with laser guidance.
In general, it all looks good, if not for Russia behind us. I am sure that if the Rafales arrive, they will not be in the most luxurious configuration. So to speak, to avoid and just in case.
It is unclear when Serbia might receive the planes if the deal goes through as announced. Last month, the manufacturer confirmed it had a stockpile of 2023 aircraft for export by the end of 141, plus another 70 for France. Since then, another batch of 18 aircraft for Indonesia has been added to the order book. In some previous export orders, France was willing to redirect aircraft from French Air Force depots to other customers to ensure faster delivery.
Now about the political component. Serbia is neutral but has long had close military relations with Russia, including regular joint exercises, including among the air force.
Unlike Croatia, Serbia is not a NATO member but participates in the Partnership for Peace program, a kind of NATO-lite that allows countries to conduct joint military exercises and other initiatives without joining the alliance.
Serbia, in turn, is not very keen to join the European Union, but nevertheless, the Balkans are Europe, and here everything is strongly tied into one ball.
The Serbs really have an average mood: on the one hand, Schengen doesn’t seem to bother anyone, on the other hand, they already live well. Yes, young people are eager to work in Europe, but this can easily be done without a Schengen visa.
But there is Kosovo. Here is a map, let’s say, Serbian-oriented.
And here is the map that I took at Le Monde, that is, French/European.
Please note that Kosovo, from a European point of view, is a completely separate state. With all the ensuing consequences.
And the consequences are as follows: Kosovo, which declared its independence, is a partially recognized phenomenon, and at first a bunch of states recognized independence, and then a series of withdrawals began. But for now, Kosovo’s status is approximately the same as that of Abkhazia. Yes, they now have their own administration and even a whole president in the capital Pristina. But the north of Kosovo, where the Serbs live, is not controlled by Pristina; on the other hand, Belgrade does not control the center and south of Kosovo, although according to the Constitution this is Serbian land.
Putting pressure and reasoning with the Kosovars is not an option; everyone in Serbia understands perfectly well that then they will be persecuted throughout Europe. As it already happened in 1999 and beyond. Russia? Well, until 2022, the Russian army stood like a formidable ghost behind the Serbs, everyone there was sure that if something happened...
Today it is clear that there will be no “if something happens”, and Russia is busy with slightly different problems.
However, Europe is also in no hurry to separate Kosovo. Here a certain Serbian Republic within Bosnia and Herzegovina suddenly played its destructive role. In fact, BiH is a separate show with land management, but as part of this entity, almost half of the territory with half of the inhabitants is precisely the Republika Srpska (the capital is nominally Sarajevo, but in fact it is Banja Luka).
So, the President of the SR within BiH, a certain Milorad Dodik, who has a reputation as an inveterate chauvinist and nationalist (for example, the hostel named after Radovan Karadzic and the monument to Gavrilo Princip), gave out a number, saying that if the independence of Kosovo is recognized and this country is admitted to the European Union, he will take the Republika Srpska, uproot it from Bosnia and Herzegovina and take it home to Serbia. Like Crimea.
In Bosnia and Herzegovina, and then throughout Europe, to put it mildly, they were stunned by such a presentation, but the whole joke of the moment is that Dodik could easily initiate this! In reality, he is a complex person with such twists, but he is frankly ours.
So with Kosovo, everyone in Europe has calmed down for now, because if Dodik really “closes” the Serbian Republic, then Bosnia and Herzegovina will be a spit on the map.
This is a political picture of the Balkan madhouse as presented by the Serbs. The most interesting thing is that people have absolutely no doubt about all the above points, especially regarding the fact that they will be given the full price for Kosovo. Serbs can be killed anywhere, but a Croat or an Albanian cannot be touched in any way...
But let's get back to planes and maps.
So, the question is: why don’t the Serbs stop fooling around and buy, say, our Su-35SE, which are head and shoulders better than the Rafales? Yes, compared to the MiG-29, consider that you will have to master everything all over again, the aircraft is really of a different generation, but still Russian technology is very different from French. For the better.
And they would sell ours with pleasure and teach us.
We look at the patchwork quilt left from the former Yugoslavia and understand that if we buy Su-35s, there is no way to deliver them to Serbia.
Those who started yelling at all corners that the Serbs were traitors, these people simply didn’t even bother to look at the map. At least with one eye. But if this happened, then these gentlemen would discover a very interesting feature of Serbia - it does not have a common border with Russia. And there is no access to the sea either.
Attention, question: how would the Su-35 get to Serbia in this case? Oh, they would fly on wings... Yes, they say airplanes have this option - to fly. But in order to fly to Serbia and land there, they need to ask permission from the countries through whose airspace they will have to fly. Serbia, I repeat, has no access to the sea, which means there is no access to neutral corridors through which one could slip through.
I’m not sure about Macedonia and Bosnia and Herzegovina, but all other countries clearly would not allow Russian planes through their airspace. This also applies to NATO members Bulgaria, Romania, Austria and Greece, and all these fragments of the former Yugoslavia are also not very independent.
I am sure that where it was not ours, everything was foreseen and all persons were notified of what would happen if Russia began supplying its weapons to Serbia.
Although there was no need to strain too much, and it is clear that closing ports and airspaces to Russian supplies with sanctions is as easy as shelling pears. And one can be very loudly indignant at various negative features inherent in the Serbs, but when asked how to deliver equipment to Serbia, not a single loudmouth really answered anything. Which is generally logical, because yelling is one thing, but moving bags is something completely different.
But no matter how Russian-Serbian relations develop, acquiring Russian weapon has become much more difficult since the West imposed sanctions against Russia. Not only has it become much more difficult to buy new fighter jets, for example, but also that the source of spare parts for existing aircraft has essentially become problematic. And if we talk about major repairs and modernizations, then yes, it has become very difficult to work with Russia. Especially in Europe. And in other regions of the United States there is also such pressure that no one seems to have enough. The consequences of this pressure are manifested in changes in aircraft procurement around the world, needless to say.
Therefore, when you need a weapon, but there’s not much where to get it, you have to look for an alternative. Unfortunately, aviation technology is the most complex technology in the world so far and the most capricious.
Serbian police H215 helicopter flies over Nikola Tesla Airport in Belgrade
Before interest in the Rafale appeared, Serbia had acquired three Airbus H215 medium helicopters and nine H145M light utility helicopters, as well as a pair of C295 turboprop transport aircraft for its armed forces and police. Should we see malicious intent in this? Weakness? Betrayal?
No. For now, I see that it is simply impossible to implement contracts of this kind. Serbia, alas, is not Iran. It was the planes that flew to Tehran under their own power over the Caspian Sea, and there were no problems. They can be both combat and transport. And to Belgrade - excuse me, the Turks carry it. From Belgrade to Ankara, and from there to Moscow, for example. And there is no other way. But to overtake a combat aircraft - alas. And if you don’t deliver it with a transport worker, they won’t let you through. Well, as I already said, the sea is not expected in Serbia yet. And the Bulgarians and Romanians, you understand, are not helpers.
I don’t know how I feel about those who yell at the Serbs. There are only two options: either remain without modern weapons, which is absolutely not an option at a time like this, or buy where they are.
The West was able to exclude Russia from the lists of arms suppliers for many countries, this is a fact. However, the situation is such that this is only beneficial, because money from partners is good, but in Ukraine they fight not with money, but with equipment and ammunition. And everything that our factories produce is needed there more.
Nothing terrible in principle, well, the Serbs fly in Rafales. Then they will have Su-35SM or something else, but before that they need to solve the main problem - the problem of Ukraine.
That, in fact, is all we wanted to say regarding this seemingly strange contract for the purchase of Rafales by Serbia.
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