Death on takeoff-2 or wait for a miracle?
On March 5, 2024, at the National Defense Management Center of the Russian Federation, under the leadership of the Minister of Defense of the Russian Federation, Army General Sergei Shoigu, a thematic conference call was held with the leadership of the Armed Forces.
Many issues were discussed at the meeting, but we will be interested in one: the minister heard reports on the creation of a light military transport aircraft Il-212 with a PD-8 turbojet engine and gave his assessment.
In short:
- Il-212 will replace the aging fleet of An-26 and An-72;
- the aircraft will be distinguished by increased carrying capacity and flight range, ease of refueling and maintenance;
- the aircraft will be able to use unpaved, unequipped runways, and also operate in Arctic latitudes.
The United Aircraft Corporation has already begun developing the technical design of the aircraft; production of the prototype is scheduled for the end of 2026.
We will return to the minister’s words while we deal with what is already known.
The plane is called Il-212. It will be similar to the Il-112, the main difference is that the engines will be turbojet and located above the wing. And this is where the main questions begin.
Il-212 - a modernized Il-112V or a new aircraft?
There is a really important point here: the Il-112V, with its design flaws in terms of weight, weight distribution and other pleasures, was a frankly unflyable and dangerous aircraft. Which was confirmed by how his fate ended.
The tragedy in Kubinka, which claimed the lives of wonderful people and specialists. And for what? For the sake of showing off at the next “forum”.
If there is a modernization of the Il-112V, we have to think about how justified this is.
The Minister of Defense says this is a new aircraft. The head of the Ministry of Industry and Trade, that is, the one who is responsible for the production, Denis Manturov, said last year that the Il-212 is a deeply modernized Il-112V.
Who is more right? Let's watch as calmly and impartially as possible, because if this flying coffin starts taking the lives of test pilots again, that's not the case.
The main difference between the Il-212 and the Il-112V is a pair of PD-8 engines that will be installed above the wing.
The idea is clear: the PD-8 is theoretically more powerful than the TV7-117ST-2 and has some other advantages unknown to us. Installed above the wing - of course, this is useful for increasing lift by passing a stream of exhaust gases over the wing and creating additional vacuum due to it, firstly, and the aircraft can be used on any kind of unpaved runways, without fear that something will fly into the engine something superfluous, secondly.
But here physics intervenes, which no one has canceled.
How much does our PD-8 weigh? With engine nacelle – 2300 kg. How much does TV7-117ST weigh? 500 kg.
That is, ONE PD-8 weighs twice as much as both turboprop engines. But that is not all.
It is clear that the turbofan PD-8 will also have more power. At takeoff, according to the data, the PD-8 gives 8 kgf, and the TV000-7 - only 117, and with an increase in speed, the thrust of the turboprop engine drops, in our case, to 3 kgf.
We understand that ONE PD-8 provides more thrust than both TV7-117s. Accordingly, the cruising speed of an aircraft with PD-8, like any turbojet aircraft, will be somewhere in the range of 750-900 km/h, while a turboprop aircraft has a cruising speed of 500-650 km/h.
We all understand here, but what should we understand specifically in this case?
But the fact that PD-8 needs a new wing. More powerful (in our case three times) and heavier engines will put more load on the wing, and something will have to be done about it. More precisely, count and make a new wing. Or more precisely, a new wing and that part of the center section to which it will be attached. The loads that fall on the wing will be transferred to the junction of the wing and fuselage.
But this is only the beginning of the carnival. The minister said that the new aircraft would have to replace the An-26 and An-72, right? And here the question also arises: But the planes are different!
The An-26 is a turboprop aircraft with a payload capacity of 5 kg.
The An-72 is a turbofan aircraft with a payload capacity of 10 kg. That is, everything is according to our layout: Il-000V with TV112-7 is clearly an An-117, but the new project with PD-26 is a replacement for the An-8.
Everything is very logical, the IL-212, which carries 5 tons of payload with such engines, is complete nonsense. Naturally, the aircraft’s carrying capacity will be increased, because there is no point in idling the engines, neither economic nor practical.
It’s like in a Gazelle, whose payload capacity is one and a half tons, and plug in a YaMZ-53441 diesel engine from a five-ton GAZon-next. It may be technically possible, but why, if the Gazelle’s frame and body are not designed for an honest 5 tons? Or you can, but not for long.
That is, two such powerful engines must be loaded. Yes, half. There will still be a reserve there, because the stunted TV112-7 frankly did not last the carcass of the Il-117V. So the PD-8 is an option, and you can actually increase the load capacity. Just up to 10 tons of An-72.
And here we will have to redo the fuselage. Lengthen, strengthen and so on. Lengthened, strengthened - hello, we need a new chassis system. Perhaps a different fuselage and wing will have to consider a new tail unit. There may well be such a scenario.
In general, not much remains: the cockpit, the electrical system, various systems not affected by alterations. Although the frankly poor fire extinguishing system definitely needs to be re-developed.
And yes, the result is no longer a replacement for the An-26, but really an An-72. And this is a different weight category...
But what if you don’t have to haul 10 tons? Flying an empty plane? Well, in general we have an order with this, the army is rich (it was), and it didn’t allow itself that. I can’t say how it is now. But the solution is at hand, since we are seriously talking about the revival of the Il-114.
True, they are going to equip the Il-114-300 with the same TV7-117, from which the Ministry of Defense is now so peculiarly moving away, but if anything, the transport Il-114T, with a payload capacity of 6 tons, was built and flew.
It is frankly negative that the base for the Il-212 will be the Il-112V, an aircraft during the development of which fatal miscalculations were made. Well, the TV7-117 engines were not suitable for this aircraft in terms of power at all, but in addition to the weak engines, there was a decent overweight of the entire structure, a mass imbalance, which is why it was necessary to load the aircraft with additional ballast so that it could somehow get off the ground.
For the sake of political decisions, the plane was nevertheless pushed into the sky and, without being tested at all (the total flight time was several hours), was sent to Kubinka, because it was necessary to show at least something of its “achievements.” Shown.
Now the plans are to replace the TV7-117S with PD-8 turbojet, which they want to install on the new import-substituted Superjets. But here, too, not everything is smooth. Where are these “replaced” Superjets? There is none of them. Why? Because there is no PD-8.
Here's another problem out of the blue: the engine. More precisely, its absence. Yes, there is a prototype, a prototype, whatever you want to call it. It was he who was “warmed up” on the Superjet in October last year. That is, not even a flight, not a “jump”. They simply installed the engine on the plane and turned it on. Okay, it worked. Already something, but they are telling us about 2026...
But I emphasize: this is a prototype. Prototype. In 2024, which is already heading towards the equator. There is information that two Superjets are equipped with new engines, but UEC has not yet given permission to take off.
And by 2030, if you believe Prime Minister Mishustin, there should be a series of “Superjets”, numbering 142 units. We have already provided data from this Government Resolution, but nothing, let us remind you again.
Are you seeing PD-8 engines for the Il-212 here? And I don't see. I don’t see it for the Be-200 either. Of course, the production of engines for the Ministry of Defense may follow a different program, this may well be the case, but this only means that there will be a fight over the engines.
Will the UEC be able to produce not 40+ PD-8s per year, but 80+? Again a difficult question.
And there are certain doubts that a truly “new” aircraft will be developed and built in the 2,5 years that remain until 2026.
Let me remind you that work on the Il-112V began in 2001, and the first flight took place in 2019. And since we have almost come to the conclusion that the Il-212 is not a modernized Il-112V, then in the timing of the implementation of such grandiose plans there may be... there may be all sorts of “shifts to the right” for 10-15 years.
In general, if the Il-112V was an airplane, and not a coffin with wings, the option of upgrading it to the PD-8 would be quite normal. Moreover, such a project was considered somewhere in 2007-2008.
But even if there was such a project, it did not reach the implementation stage. And taking into account all of the above, the path will have to start all over again.
They say that the IL-212 is now at the stage of forming a technical project. It's prompt, there are no objections. But what does “formation of a technical project” mean? This is what it means: the development of a technical design for an aircraft, then the development of design documentation, then the stage of building mock-ups, samples for statistical testing, and, finally, flight samples.
And they plan to do all this in less than three years? Unless the Ilyushin Design Bureau has some almost finished project, for example, one of those that was developed by the Design Bureau together with the Indian military, and which coincides as closely as possible with the Il-212 project. Then, of course, everyone will be in chocolate and in the remaining time the labor feat of creating the Il-212 will be accomplished.
In general, over the course of our 30 years, KB Ilyushin had many projects that remained on paper. And the emergence of such a project with the possibility of the most rapid processing into the Il-212 is really not the worst option.
HistoryBy the way, I knew examples of similar projects. For those interested, look at the history of the creation of such an interesting aircraft as the An-32. The Indian (yes, India again!) military, tired of destroying their C-130s on high-mountain sites in the areas bordering China, asked to cut down a high-altitude aircraft for them.
Over the course of a year, Antonov and his engineers worked out a project to replace the AI-24VT (2820 hp) engines of the An-26, which became the base, with more powerful AI-20DM engines (5180 hp) from the An-12. The thrust-to-weight ratio increased, which was important for high-altitude airfields; as a bonus, the carrying capacity also increased by more than a ton. In this case, it was necessary to install the engines on the wing and make gaps, since the increased size of the propellers did not have enough space for rotation, the blades touched the fuselage.
And as a result, the An-32 was produced in a decent series of 360 vehicles. And Antonov’s designers completed it in one year. “Can we do it again”? It would be nice, of course, but Antonov created the An-32 in 1976, working under slightly different conditions.
The fact that today the remnants of the once mighty Sergei Ilyushin Design Bureau will be able to create a new aircraft in two and a half years, especially after they were unable to do anything with the Il-112V, raises doubts. Moreover, I am sure that in 2026 it will be quietly announced that work on the Il-212 is continuing, but the deadlines have been slightly shifted.
Unless a miracle happens. But once a miracle already happened when the Il-112V was pushed into the air. But then everything fell into place, and the Il-112V killed three test pilots.
And here the question is: do we really need such miracles?
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