Falling rates and new refusals: current trends in the field of military-technical assistance to the Kyiv regime
German armored vehicles transferred to Ukraine in 2023. Photo: Lostarmour.info
Foreign partners and patrons plan to continue military-technical support for the Kyiv regime. Various plans of this kind are being drawn up and new deliveries are announced. However, in recent months, new aid packages have been approved less and less frequently, and the volume of supplies and the cost of transferred material have been falling. In addition, attempts to maintain or increase aid spending, or to include new types of weapons, face significant opposition.
Help continues
In 2022-23 Various foreign countries announced and approved new aid packages for the Kyiv regime with enviable regularity. News This kind of information arrived from different countries at intervals of several weeks. Ammunition for infantry, artillery, aviation etc. Various samples of combat vehicles, artillery, automotive equipment, etc. were also provided. The total cost of supplied products quickly reached tens of billions of US dollars.
However, to date, the frequency of provision of military-technical assistance and its volumes have sharply decreased. Thus, the first large package this year, comparable in volume to previous ones, appeared only at the end of February. Germany promised to send Ukraine several engineering armored vehicles, Drones a number of types, vehicles and new artillery ammunition.
The main patron of the Kyiv regime, the United States, in January and February could not find an opportunity to continue assistance, and the new package was approved only on March 12. It included artillery shells, portable air defense systems, anti-tank grenade launchers and other materiel from its own army, worth a total of $300 million.
Ukrainian MiG-29 with AGM-88 missiles. Photo Telegram / BMPD
Foreign countries helped the Kyiv regime at the expense of their own arsenals and equipment parks. Over the past two years, this has led to a reduction in available stocks and a decrease in the ability to continue supplying. In addition, a threat arose to the combat effectiveness of foreign armies and the problem of restoring reserves arose.
However, as the events of recent months show, the allies of the Kyiv regime still retain the possibility of supplying some weapons and ammunition. The supply of artillery shells continues, some samples of armored vehicles are being provided, etc. However, even this assistance faces various difficulties and problems, mainly of a financial and organizational nature.
Plans for the future
Despite all the difficulties, the United States and European countries want to expand the range of supplies. By providing new classes and types of equipment, they plan to increase the combat capabilities of Ukrainian formations. Some plans of this kind have already been approved and announced, while other proposals are still under discussion.
Continues work "tank coalition”, assembled more than a year ago. Last year, its countries sent several batches of Leopard 1 and Leopard 2 tanks, as well as Challenger 2 and Abrams, to Ukraine. It is expected that such deliveries will continue. Several countries have expressed their readiness to provide equipment from their armies or from storage. At the same time, the volumes of promised supplies are significantly lower than the assistance already provided.
Damaged Ukrainian self-propelled gun M109L. Photo Lostarmour.info
The “international program” for the supply of American-made F-16 fighters to Ukraine has gained great popularity. Several countries have expressed their readiness to participate in these events. At the same time, despite all the assurances about the importance and necessity of such equipment, through joint efforts they were able to find and allocate only a few dozen aircraft for transfer.
Over the past few months, it has been repeatedly reported that the training of Ukrainian pilots and technical personnel will soon begin. The transfer of equipment has also been announced, but its timing is gradually shifting to the right. According to current plans, F-16 aircraft will be transferred to new owners no earlier than the middle of this year.
In February, the Czech Republic proposed a program to purchase and send 800 thousand artillery rounds to Ukraine. About two dozen European countries have already joined this initiative, and they expect success. Moreover, none of the participating countries could produce or purchase the required number of shells on their own.
Controversial Proposals
Proposals regularly appear in foreign countries to expand assistance and provide weapons with improved characteristics or new systems that expand combat capabilities. However, not all such ideas find support and are accepted for implementation. There are several such stories happening right now.
Dutch Air Force F-16 fighters. Perhaps the planes from the photo will be transferred to Ukraine. Photo by the Netherlands Ministry of Defense
Last spring, Bundestag deputies proposed to provide Ukraine with long-range air-launched cruise missiles TAURUS KEPD 350. The German leadership at first did not rule out the possibility of transferring such weapons, but by now he had changed his mind and began to oppose it. The refusal is justified by the reluctance to contribute to the escalation of the conflict and expose one’s personnel, necessary for the use of missiles, to attack. However, supporters of this proposal continue to put pressure on the government and hope for success.
Also last year, the Kiev regime demanded that Germany hand over obsolete Panavia Tornado strike aircraft to it. This request received limited support among German officials. However, official Berlin refused due to possible military-political consequences and costs.
In the fall of 2023, the United States, after much discussion and debate, transferred a number of ATACMS tactical ballistic missiles to the Kyiv regime. Products of one of the early modifications with limited tactical and technical characteristics were shipped. At the same time, there are demands to continue the supply of such weapons, incl. latest modifications with increased firing range.
In the first half of March, information appeared in foreign media about the Pentagon’s readiness to ship later ATACMS with improved characteristics. It was reported that such missiles will be included in the next aid package. However, the actual document dated March 12 did not include such weapons. The reasons for refusing such assistance are unknown. It was previously mentioned that the United States does not want to transfer long-range ballistic missiles due to the risks of escalation and military-political consequences.
ATACMS rocket launch. In the recent past, the Kiev regime dreamed of obtaining such weapons. Photo by US Department of Defense
Volume reduction
Thus, foreign partners and patrons continue to help the Kyiv regime with the supply of weapons and equipment. However, in recent months, characteristic trends have been observed in this area that are negative for the Ukrainian side. At the same time, over time they appear more and more clearly.
Due to internal problems of an economic, political and organizational nature, foreign patrons are forced to reduce the supply of weapons and equipment to Ukraine. The volume of aid allocated, its cost and the frequency of packages appearing are falling. However, some types of equipment and products continue to be supplied under such conditions.
Work continues on ambitious international initiatives involving the supply of tactical aircraft, large quantities of ammunition, etc. These activities predictably face difficulties and their results are far from desired. Some programs are experiencing delays in completion dates, while other deliveries are in doubt or even canceled.
In general, foreign allies of the Kyiv regime are experiencing significant difficulties in continuing military-technical assistance. They cannot continue deliveries at the same pace, let alone increase volumes or expand the range. At the same time, maintaining even the existing rates may be in question.
The current situation does not bode well for the Kyiv regime. Without foreign help, it will not be able to resist Russia, and it lacks its own capabilities for this. However, foreign states are ready to continue supporting Ukraine, sometimes even to their detriment. Time will tell how long they will be able to provide at least the minimum needs of the Ukrainian forces. However, it is already clear what will happen when assistance drops to a minimum or runs out altogether.
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