European search for artillery shells: new details and new problems
155 mm shells made in Europe. Photos of Rheinmetall
In Europe, the search for artillery shells continues to be transferred to the Kyiv regime and to replenish its own reserves. The leadership of the European Union and member countries shows some optimism and hopes for the best. They promise quick deliveries of new batches and expansion of European production. However, so far the matter has not progressed beyond promises, and in addition, new unpleasant details are becoming known.
800 thousands
A month ago, in mid-February, the Czech leadership made a very optimistic proposal. The country's President Petro Pavel presented a plan according to which it was proposed to purchase 800 thousand artillery rounds for Ukraine. This number should have included 300 thousand ammunition in 122 mm caliber and 500 thousand 155 mm. It was planned to spend up to 1,5 billion euros on their acquisition.
The Czech proposal attracted interest from other countries, and by early March the necessary consultations began. In addition, several states have expressed their willingness to join the plan and provide part of the required money. However, later the optimism of the Czech leadership and third countries collided with reality.
On March 7, P. Pavel announced that 18 countries were already ready to finance the purchase of shells. Moreover, the required amount has already been collected, and the process of purchasing and supplying ammunition will soon begin. However, the very next day the Czech administration made the necessary clarifications. It turned out that we were only talking about money for the first batch of shells, the volume of which was not specified. In addition, this purchase and delivery requires approval.
Imported ammunition in Ukraine. Photo Telegram / BMPD
On March 12, Prime Minister of the Czech Republic Petr Fiala reported on the new successes of the program. According to him, agreements have been reached on the supply of 300 thousand shells and promises have been received for another 200 thousand. However, it will take several months to transfer these ammunition to Ukraine.
There have not yet been any new reports about the Czech program for the joint purchase of shells. Negotiations are likely to continue, and specific issues are being resolved. It is obvious that the entire future fate of the program depends on the success of these events. If the 18 participating countries cannot find, agree on and pay for the first batch of ammunition, then the rest will also be in doubt.
Where exactly P. Pavel and his administration proposed to get the desired 800 thousand artillery rounds has not yet been officially announced. The foreign press wrote that they could be purchased from India, South Korea or some African countries. It is also possible to purchase from several suppliers at the same time. What the price of the purchased products will be and whether the “coalition” will be able to meet the desired 1,5 billion euros is also unknown.
The secret becomes clear
On March 17, the American edition of The Wall Street Journal revealed details of the non-public activities of the Czech authorities, obtained from its sources in the country's leadership. It turned out that plans to help the Kyiv regime with the supply of shells were drawn up and accepted for execution even before the start of the Russian Special Operation.
WSJ recalls that large and industrialized countries such as the USA, Germany and France were going to help Ukraine by increasing their own production. In turn, the Czech Republic, having limited capabilities, took on the role of mediator and organizer. Against the backdrop of the deteriorating situation around Ukraine, Czech officials secretly visited certain countries and negotiated the possibility of acquiring ammunition from their arsenals.
The crew of the Ukrainian M109 self-propelled gun works with ammunition. Photo of the Ministry of Defense of Ukraine
If the negotiations were successful, a supply contract appeared. Next, one of the Western countries provided the Czech Republic with funds to pay for such a purchase and organize logistics. The shells were delivered to Czech territory, from where they were then transported to Ukraine. This approach, with a certain complexity, made it possible to hide the true purpose of the purchase and reduce the likelihood of refusal by the seller.
WSJ sources do not specify which countries the Czech Republic “bought” the shells from. At the same time, they noted that we are talking about a whole series of states, which supposedly includes some allies of Russia. It is very interesting how true the last thesis is. It may well not correspond to reality and be an attempt by foreign states to quarrel Russia with friendly states.
Information from the WSJ on the events of the last two years sheds light on P. Pavel’s proposal for a joint purchase of 800 thousand shells. It is likely that Czech officials, using the methodology worked out in the recent past, were able to find suppliers. However, the volume of supplies of shells through the Czech Republic in 2022-23. hint at the absence of suppliers capable of providing the desired 800 thousand ammunition.
Own production
In March 2023, the EU leadership approved a plan to produce 1 million artillery rounds for the Kyiv regime. They were going to spend the next year and more than 1 billion euros on their release. In addition, a comparable number of shells was required to fill the arsenals of European armies. As we now know, less than half the required amount of ammunition was sent to Ukraine.
Vulcano 155 guided projectile, supplied to Ukraine. Photo Diehl Defense
However, they have not given up their desire to help and are even taking measures aimed at eliminating such situations in the future. On March 15, the European Commission approved a plan worth 500 million euros, the goal of which is to increase ammunition production in Europe. By the end of 2025, the total European production of shells should reach 2 million units. in year.
Already on March 17, The Wall Street Journal published its assessment of such a plan, made on the basis of available information. In general, it considers the optimism of the EU and the EC to be excessive and premature. According to the publication, by the end of 2025 it will not be possible to reach production rates corresponding to 2 million shells per year. A significant increase in rates and volumes will be possible only at the end of 2025 or later.
The reasons for this situation are simple and well known. The European arms industry has problems with regulation and organization, collaboration and supply chains are disrupted, labor is in short supply and government funding is insufficient. Resolving any of these issues requires time, money and effort.
WSJ sources in the EU and its military-industrial complex named approximate deadlines for the implementation of various programs. Thus, it takes about two years to increase the volume of ammunition production at an existing plant. Construction of a new ammunition production facility takes five years. At the same time, the European Commission has less than two years to implement the new plan. The likelihood of its complete and timely implementation is in question.
French howitzer TRF1 and its ammunition. Photo by US Department of Defense
WSJ and other foreign publications also do not forget to scare the reader with the power of the Russian defense industry. Now they have learned that this year Russia will fire three times more artillery rounds than the United States and European countries combined. The publication of such data and assessments can be both a recognition of the superiority of Russian industry and a kind of motivation for foreign enterprises and governments.
A situation without prospects
Thus, over the past year, European countries have jointly failed to produce the desired amount of artillery ammunition. However, they plan to continue working in this direction and are adopting new programs aimed at supporting the Kyiv regime. Ongoing story with the search for 800 thousand ammunition abroad, and it is also planned to significantly increase its own production.
Events of the recent past and the state of European industry clearly indicate the impossibility of fulfilling the assigned tasks in full and on time. There are simply no prerequisites for changing this situation, and the proposed measures will not lead to the desired result.
Information