Drones can't defeat ships
In February, Western satellites detected unusual activity associated with the Askold MCR. The ship was placed in dry dock at the Zaliv shipyard, its hull was surrounded by scaffolding, and a roof was erected over the rig. It is possible that a decision was made to restore the RTO.
The small rocket ship "Askold" (project 22800 "Karakurt") was damaged in November last year. The MRK was located at the quay wall of the Zaliv plant when it was struck by Storm Shadow cruise missiles.
But it was not the missile launches that became the main cause for concern.
After the complete defeat of the Ukrainian Navy, the nationalists managed to adapt to the conditions of the Black Sea and switch to tactics using small unmanned vehicles.
Marine kamikazes - coming from nowhere and disappearing into the night sea, among the splashes of falling shells.
Attacks drones cause wide resonance. There are demands to immediately take all measures and punish those responsible. Adding fuel to the fire, various experts claim that the concept of “big ships” is a thing of the past. They reign supreme at sea drones.
The enemy attacks ships without even having his own military fleet!
In what follows, we will refrain from a detailed analysis of the characteristics of BEC. And we will not evaluate the effectiveness of the protective equipment that the ships of the Russian Navy are equipped with.
The high threat level from maritime drones has one simple explanation.
Look at the geographical map. The western coast of Crimea (Saki, Evpatoria, Donuzlav) is located 200 km from the coast controlled by the Kyiv regime.
The English Channel is wide in most places!
This distance is four times less than the width of the Sea of Japan. After all, from Vladivostok to Tokyo in a straight line is over a thousand kilometers.
The route by sea from Sevastopol to Odessa will be half as long as the route from Astrakhan to Baku.
Most naval battles do not remember such “ridiculous” distances.
You can give a completely absurd example - imagine if the Japanese were preparing an attack on Pearl Harbor while on one of the Hawaiian islands.
Even the most eastern part of Crimea (Kerch Peninsula) is only 550–600 km away from the coast occupied by Ukrainian nationalists. Approximately the same distance separates the base in Novorossiysk.
With the beginning of SVO our Black Sea Fleet found itself locked in an extremely limited water area.
It is necessary to repeat once again that, contrary to popular belief, the Black Sea Fleet was not “locked in bases.” The problem is that all combat patrol areas of ships in the Black Sea (as well as their bases) are located at a short distance from the enemy’s coast. At a distance that even the smallest boats and jet skis loaded with explosives can overcome.
A naval drone, unmanned aerial vehicle or BEC is not a warship
Seaworthiness. Energy. Capabilities of means for target detection.
Incomparable scale!
Will “Magura” be able to stay on a given course with waves of at least 5 points (wind up to 10 m/s, wave height 2–2,5 meters)?
How much can a drone's thermal imager, located almost at water level, see?
You've probably noticed that almost all videos of drone attacks lack intense excitement. In most cases, the sea surface is only covered with a slight swell, as if military operations are taking place somewhere on a lake.
There is no secret here - BECs of such small sizes cannot operate in difficult weather conditions. The first storm along the way will lead to the disappearance of the Ukrainian “squadron”. In a matter of hours (minutes), the sea elements will scatter and absorb the drones like wood chips.
Two simple conclusions follow from this.
"Magur" and "marichki" will never be able to replace large warships.
Operate on sea lanes, independently search for targets, withstand changing weather conditions and natural disasters.
BECs cannot survive more than a couple of days in coastal waters. There is not even talk about the far sea zone here.
The author is not a retrograde and fully admits that in the future all ships will switch to automatic control. But these combat vehicles will be nothing like Ukrainian boats. These will be ships of a new generation, not inferior in size to corvettes and frigates.
Experimental uncrewed ship of the Chinese Navy
The only thing the Ukrainian “wunderwaffe” can do is cover a couple of hundred miles in good weather. And attack ships whose location was known in advance.
Unfortunately, due to the small size of the theater of operations, this set of qualities turned out to be enough to cause a lot of problems for the Black Sea Fleet.
The short distance allows the power steering of Ukraine
A journey of several hours does not require frequent updates of intelligence data. “Night guests” do not rush around the sea in search of targets, but follow directly to the area where Western satellites and NATO reconnaissance aircraft recorded the presence of Black Sea Fleet ships in the morning.
No long-term weather forecasts are required. A short passage by sea eliminates most questions about the reliability of the mechanical parts and equipment of the drone.
The simplicity of the task allows one to avoid complex decisions; unmanned boats have literally become consumables. Studying news Recently, you can pay attention to the increase in the number of drones involved in each attack.
The enemy does not need to ensure great autonomy and place significant fuel reserves on board. All BEC models turned out to be extremely small in size, with their sides barely protruding above the surface of the water. This technical feature also plays into the hands of the enemy. The smaller the drone, the more difficult it is to detect it at the time of attack.
The key to all technical features and tactical techniques is one single circumstance. Distance to the coast of Crimea.
How to protect yourself from the threat?
As an example, combat catamarans of the Shahid Soleimani type of the Iranian Navy, where controlled cannon turrets are located in hidden niches above the waterline. This solution provides better control over the most vulnerable, aft area of the ship.
According to the public and experts, it is precisely such techniques that can guarantee the protection of ships from Ukrainian BEC.
On the other hand, the problem of protecting Black Sea Fleet ships is clearly not on a technical level. This is pure geography, a factor that cannot be ignored.
We have no right to give advice to designers or demand that they increase the number of turrets and combat posts on the upper deck.
All advisers should be reminded of the ancient truth - if you put 8 guns on a ship armed with 10 guns according to the project, then only 6 will be able to fire from them.
All available measures have been taken since the first attacks on the ships. This is evidenced by successful interception of dozens Ukrainian maritime drones over the past year. Everything indicates that the ships of the Black Sea Fleet have sufficient weapons to counter the BEC.
In May 2023, the reconnaissance ship (communications vessel) Ivan Khurs successfully repelled an attack by three unmanned boats.
An attempt to attack a Russian ship took place in the economic zone of Turkey, 140 km north of the Bosphorus Strait (for those who don’t know, the route by sea from Odessa to the Turkish Bosphorus is closer than to Kerch).
In July, August and September, the patrol ship Sergei Kotov repelled attacks involving naval drones three times. During the September attack, five BEC units were destroyed at once using standard weapons.
During the fourth attempt, the Ukrainian side allocated 15 drones to participate in the operation. The enemy was detected in a timely manner, the crew of the Sergei Kotov began an evasive maneuver and opened heavy fire on the targets. Unfortunately, it was not possible to repel such a massive attack.
Let everyone draw their own conclusions from these events.
Historical examples
First story – about how dangerous it is to base ships in close proximity to the enemy.
...Brest turned out to be a bad place. Enemy airfields were at arm's length - even by the standards of the slow-moving Blenheims, which flew this distance in less than one hour.
The naval base in Brest was not considered suitable for basing large surface ships. The twins Scharnhorst and Gneisenau, along with the heavy cruiser Prinz Eugen, ended up there by chance. Having frolicked on communications in the Atlantic, they hurried to take refuge on the French coast.
The British turned Brest into a bombing range aviation. During the stay of the Kriegsmarine heavy ships, over 2 kilotons of bombs fell on the base!
It was difficult to blame the Germans for poor organization and insufficient measures to protect the ship's personnel. The Messerschmitts, raised on alarm, were buzzing, and the air was shaken by volleys of anti-aircraft batteries. They tried to disperse the ships and hid them in secret parking lots outside the base. As a result of the continuous attacks, all three combat units were eventually damaged.
German sailors decided on a desperate breakthrough across the English Channel (Operation Cerberus). The path through minefields and the risk of meeting with the home fleet was preferable to standing under incessant night raids.
Brest was located only 220 km from the coast of England. Although at that time the British did not yet have either naval drones or Storm Shadow missiles...
Second story serves as an answer to the question - how could a threat to our ships arise in the absence of a fleet in Ukraine.
This fact is presented by the enemy as a mockery. But in fact it sounds like the most senseless accusation against the Black Sea Fleet.
We are not in the 18th century. Whenever ships find themselves in the range of aviation (as well as coastal missile systems, sea and air drones), they are exposed to threat.
During the Great Patriotic War, the Germans did not have a single warship larger than an assault boat on the Black Sea. Due to the limited size of the water area, in this theater there was no need to use specific naval weapons (for example, only occasional torpedo bomber missions were noted).
Land-based front-line aviation was used to solve all problems.
The cruiser Chervona Ukraine, the leader Tashkent, the loss of the leader Kharkov and two destroyers off the coast of Yalta in 1943 - each of these cases was the result of a raid by Stuka dive bombers.
Land-based Stukas were among the deadliest enemies at sea. For example, in one May 1941 they managed to sink a British cruiser and 8 destroyers off the coast of Crete. And damage the aircraft carrier Formidable.
A more recent example The situation described was the Falklands conflict (1982).
British ships remained invisible and invulnerable while sailing on the open ocean. But as soon as they approached the shore, a shower of bombs fell on them. 19 pennants of the squadron were damaged. And six had to remain forever in the South Atlantic.
The fury of the Argentine Air Force began to fade over time. But on the last day of the conflict, the destroyer Glamorgan came under a missile attack from the shore.
These historical examples will suffice.
The extreme remoteness of the combat zone, as well as the extremely close proximity to the enemy, in both cases poses many problems.
The most reliable way to protect the ships and infrastructure of the Black Sea Fleet would be to completely liberate the coast and deprive Ukraine of access to the sea.
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