An endangered species: the uncertain future of AWACS aircraft
Quantity and quality of
Hardly anyone can doubt that long-range radar detection and control aircraft (AWACS) play a huge role in combat operations. The conduct of the Russian Special Military Operation (SVO) in Ukraine clearly demonstrated the importance of these vehicles, as well as their shortage in the Armed Forces of the Russian Federation (RF Armed Forces).
At the beginning of the SVO we talked about this in materials "Russian special operation in Ukraine: to dispel the fog of war" и "Issues on the use of AWACS aircraft, reconnaissance and combat control during the NWO in Ukraine". Especially The effectiveness of AWACS aircraft became noticeable when they learned to work with anti-aircraft missile systems (SAM), ensuring the destruction of enemy aircraft and helicopters beyond the radio horizon.
Apparently, the problem with the shortage of AWACS aircraft in the Russian Armed Forces is so acute that a decision has been made to produce AWACS aircraft in the A-50U version, obviously in some kind of modernized version, without waiting for the completion of the protracted development of the newest AWACS aircraft A-100 "Premier" (most likely, we are talking about restoring and upgrading to the A-50U version of all A-50 AWACS aircraft available to the Russian Armed Forces).
Aircraft AWACS A-100 "Premier". Image by Wikimedia Commons/Trolyambus
One of the ways to saturate the RF Armed Forces with AWACS aircraft is to create so-called ersatz solutions, that is, machines made on the basis of any serial aircraft and modified serial radar systems (RLS), even if they have worse characteristics compared to “full-fledged” machines , but less expensive and easier to produce - we previously discussed this issue in the material “AWACS aircraft for the Russian Air Force: fast, many, inexpensive”.
We should not forget about the possibility of creating highly specialized machines, for example, based on unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), which we discussed in the material “Waiting for the Helios-RLD UAV: for protection against low-flying air attack weapons” (SVN), however, the UAV-DRLOs discussed in this material are designed specifically for detecting low-flying SVVs in their air superiority zone aviation – the low power of the radar will not allow the use of the considered AWACS UAVs for hunting airplanes and helicopters deep in enemy territory (however, this does not apply to all possible options for creating UAV-based AWACS vehicles).
Model of the Helios-RLD UAV. Image by the Ministry of Industry and Trade of the Russian Federation
The problem is not only in the number of AWACS aircraft in the ranks of the Russian Armed Forces, but also in the fact that these machines are extremely vulnerable to enemy fire. Recent events have shown that no matter how difficult it is to increase the fleet of AWACS aircraft, it is just as easy to lose these machines. The high survivability of NATO AWACS aircraft is due only to the fact that we do not fire at them. It can be assumed that if NATO countries transfer a certain number of AWACS aircraft to Ukraine, they will fall from the sky faster than the Leopards and Abrams are burning on the front line.
Threats from ground and air
Realizing the importance of AWACS aircraft for gaining air supremacy, the world's leading countries are actively developing weapons capable of reaching them. In particular, Russia has developed and operates anti-aircraft guided missiles (SAMs) with a range of up to 400 kilometers, used by the S-400 air defense system.
Also, long-range air-to-air (“A-A”) missiles have been created for aircraft carriers, for example, such as the R-37, R-37M (RVV-BD) with a firing range of up to 300 kilometers. Presumably, the V-V KS-172 missile with a firing range of over 400 kilometers is in development.
Rocket "V-V" R-37M (RVV-BD). Image by Wikimedia Commons / Vitaly V. Kuzmin
Of particular concern is the possibility of the enemy using an air defense system in ambush mode, according to external target designation data; in this case, the enemy air defense system is extremely difficult to detect in advance, and even after launching a missile defense system, it can quickly change location and evade a retaliatory strike.
The capabilities of the air defense systems of Western countries in this regard are more modest, however, according to open data, missile defense systems are being developed for the Patriot air defense system, designed to destroy aerodynamic targets at a range of about 250–280 kilometers. In addition, the SM-2 missile defense system with a firing range of up to 240 kilometers has already been created for the Standard ship-based air defense system, which, presumably, can also be used from ground-based mobile launchers (PU).
In terms of aircraft carriers, NATO countries have adopted the European B-B missile MBDA Meteor with a ramjet engine. Despite the stated range of 100 kilometers, it is assumed that when firing along a ballistic trajectory, its range can reach 150–300 kilometers, which makes it quite possible to hit such large and low-maneuverable targets as AWACS aircraft at this distance.
V-V missile MBDA Meteor with ramjet engine. Image mbda-systems.com
The maximum launch range of the American B-B missile AIM-120D is 180 kilometers, but it is possible that this missile can attack low-maneuverable targets along a ballistic trajectory at a much greater distance.
Also, presumably, the enemy’s SAMs and V-V missiles can be guided not only using their active radar homing head (ARH), but also using a broadband passive homing head to the source of radar radiation - the radar of the AWACS aircraft.
As the functionality of AWACS aircraft expands, for example, in terms of detecting ground, surface, and, to a limited extent, underwater targets (for example, submarines with a raised periscope), the opposing sides will make more and more efforts to destroy enemy AWACS aircraft, and accordingly will More and more effective means of destroying these machines at long distances are being developed.
A special role in the hunt for AWACS aircraft can be played by a “distributed fighter” - an orbital network of satellites supposedly capable of detecting not only hypersonic and ballistic missiles, but also other aircraft, as we previously discussed in the materials "HBTSS and PWSA Satellite Network: Distributed Fighter Can Become a Tool for Absolute Air Superiority" и “Anti-air attack weapons (AA): ground strike echelon of a “distributed fighter”.
Another significant factor is the emergence of high-speed satellite communication networks capable of transmitting large amounts of information in real time, which makes it possible to provide two-way satellite communication with SAMs and V-V missiles for real-time correction of their flight trajectory when firing at long range according to data external target designation.
All of the above suggests that the chances of survival for large, low-maneuverable combat and support aircraft will be significantly reduced in the foreseeable future. While missile-carrying bombers still have a chance to survive due to the significantly increased flight range of cruise missiles, AWACS aircraft do not have this luxury - the increase in the effectiveness of their radar systems is compensated by a decrease in visibility in the radar range of air attack weapons (AEA).
Conclusions
Based on the above, we can say with a high degree of confidence that the future of AWACS aircraft with a traditional layout looks very sad.
Previously, we have repeatedly said that incorrect conclusions can be drawn based on the results of any military conflict.
For example, when the successful bombing of the Barmalei in Syria led to conclusions being drawn about the need to use a minimum amount of high-precision weapons in favor of the use of conventional, unguided aerial bombs, whose guidance was quite accurately carried out using the SVP-24 Hephaestus aviation sighting and navigation systems, as a result it turned out that when fighting a more high-tech enemy, this does not work - the planes are simply shot down when approaching the target, which led to the need for accelerated development and organization of mass production of unified planning and correction modules (UMPC).
Exactly the same situation may arise with AWACS aircraft. Yes, we needed them yesterday, we really need them today, but if we talk about tomorrow, then the only thing that AWACS aircraft with a traditional layout will be suitable for, be it models with a “mushroom” above the fuselage or more modern solutions with a flat antenna located along the hull, then this is control of airspace in the depths of its territory, at a distance of at least five thousand kilometers from enemy aircraft and air defense systems capable of operating against AWACS aircraft with their long-range weapons.
The expected appearance of the prototype V-V KS-172 missile with a range of up to 400 kilometers - it and others like it can close the era of AWACS aircraft with a traditional layout. Image by Wikimedia Commons/Piotr Butowski
NATO countries, and not only them, are now actively purchasing AWACS aircraft of the traditional configuration, inspired by their successes in the Ukrainian theater of military operations, because AWACS aircraft from NATO countries largely closed low altitudes over the territory of Western Ukraine for our aviation.
However, all this became possible only because we do not shoot down these planes. If Poland and the Baltic countries really got involved in the conflict, it would suddenly become clear that AWACS aircraft would not last long over their territory.
Considering how many low-flying and inexpensive air attack weapons will be used in predicted conflicts, which must be quickly detected and shot down, any AWACS aircraft will be in great demand (including just AWACS aircraft, without personnel on board carrying out target distribution and target designation) , however, in this case it is still better to build a network of UAV-AWACS, which we already talked about earlier - such a solution will be cheaper both in construction and in operation.
As for the construction of promising long-range radar detection systems designed to gain air superiority in the fight against a comparable or stronger enemy, their appearance will be significantly different from what we see now, but we’ll talk about that another time.
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