Possibility and reluctance: sending European troops to Ukraine
French army exercises using armored vehicles. Photo by the French Ministry of Defense
NATO countries continue to look for ways to support the Kyiv regime and counter Russia’s successful actions within the framework of the current Special Operation. The other day it became known that the leaders of European states discussed the possibility of sending their troops to Ukraine. However, the first statements on this topic were immediately followed by various comments and reservations, indicating a reluctance to take such measures. Apparently, European governments still retain the ability to soberly assess their capabilities and negative consequences.
France's position
The other day, another international conference on supporting the Kyiv regime was held in Paris. Presidents and prime ministers of more than two dozen countries discussed possible ways to help Ukraine and counter Russia. Following the event, a number of statements were made, and some of them attracted special attention due to their excessive boldness.
Thus, on February 26, French President Emmanuel Macron said that during the event the possibility of sending foreign troops to Ukraine was discussed. The sending of limited contingents of ground forces from different countries was considered. A decision of this kind was not made, and it was not possible to achieve a consensus on this matter.
However, according to E. Macron, the situation may change over time. At the same time, the French president noted that all conference participants consider it necessary to do everything possible to counter Russia and prevent its victory.
The next day, French Prime Minister Gabriel Attal commented on the president's words. On the air of one of the radio stations, he confirmed his position on the issue of a possible victory for Russia in the current conflict, and also pointed out the existence of scenarios in which France would have to send its troops to Ukraine.
On February 28, G. Attal spoke in the French Senate and added to his previous words. He believes that French troops could go to Ukraine to train local militants, provide air defense or protect borders. At the same time, the Prime Minister recalled that E. Macron did not announce any actions, but simply described possible scenarios.
Polish soldiers at the training ground. Photo of the Polish Ministry of Defense
E. Macron's statements were also complemented by Foreign Minister Stéphane Sejournet. He indicated that France must develop new actions and activities that respond to the current state of affairs and its development. Some of them require the presence of foreign personnel on the territory of Ukraine. At the same time, sending specialists does not provide for their direct participation in hostilities. However, the head of the Foreign Ministry did not rule out the fundamental possibility of changing this situation.
Obvious reaction
Statements by the French leadership about the possibility of sending troops to Ukraine predictably attracted attention and caused an appropriate reaction. First of all, this idea was criticized in France itself. Also, the governments of European states, which may be drawn into the adventure of sending troops, hastened to comment on the situation.
Inside France, the very possibility of deploying troops in Ukraine was criticized by almost all opposition parties. Such ideas were condemned by the socialists Olivier Faure, Marine Le Pen’s National Rally, Jean-Luc Mélenchon’s “Unruly France,” etc. Their position is supported by part of the media and the population.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg personally commented on E. Macron’s words. He indicated that the Alliance has no plans to send its ground forces to Ukraine. They are going to support the Kyiv regime using other methods.
Similar statements were also made by the leaders of Germany, the Czech Republic, Poland, Sweden, Italy and other countries. All of them indicated their readiness and intention to continue helping the Kyiv regime using various methods, but without sending their troops. This is explained both by the peculiarities of existing support plans and by the reluctance to enter into direct military confrontation with Russia.
British grenade launcher during training. Photo by UK Ministry of Defense
Moscow also paid attention to the bold statements of the head of France. Thus, the press secretary of the Russian president, Dmitry Peskov, recalled that the appearance of foreign troops in Ukraine will lead to the outbreak of a military conflict between Russia and NATO. In this regard, he recommended that foreign governments consider whether such a scenario is in their interests.
Deputy Chairman of the Security Council Dmitry Medvedev also revealed his opinion on the current situation. In his recognizable manner, he accused the French leadership of wanting revenge for the defeats of two centuries ago, and also noted the processes of degradation of the Western elites.
Foreign participation
Thus, the European partners of the Kyiv regime are not yet planning to send full-fledged groups of their ground forces to Ukrainian territory and are in every possible way denying this. However, the presence and work of militants and military specialists from third countries in Ukraine has long been well known. They solve different problems, and their activities are organized in such a way as not to lead the situation to an open confrontation with Russia.
The Kiev regime has long practiced recruiting mercenaries to serve in line units. Since the beginning of 2022, the flow of foreign fighters seeking to enlist has gradually increased. At the same time, the states from which the mercenaries come speak about their personal initiative and deny their role in their appearance in Ukraine.
French tank crews and infantry are learning to work in urban conditions. Photo by the French Ministry of Defense
Mass supplies of foreign-made weapons and military equipment are accompanied by foreign specialists. Representatives of partner armies work in Ukraine and are responsible for training local fighters or operating equipment. In addition, the participation of foreign crews and crews in hostilities has been repeatedly reported. However, usually we are talking about mercenaries, and not about professional military personnel from third countries.
The Western press is already reporting on the secret presence of foreign military personnel in Ukraine. Thus, the other day the Financial Times newspaper, citing a high-ranking official from Europe, wrote about the presence of some European special forces on Ukrainian territory. According to him, everyone knows about this, but they officially prefer not to talk about it in order to maintain an acceptable military-political situation and to avoid negative consequences.
Military potential
E. Macron indicated that European countries are not going to send a full-fledged contingent to Ukraine, but did not rule out a change in the situation in the future. In this regard, questions arise about what kind of groups the partner countries of the Kyiv regime can assemble and transfer, where and what tasks they will solve, and what Russia will do in this case.
The total size of the armed forces of Europe and NATO looks impressive at first glance - a total of several million people, thousands tanks and combat vehicles, hundreds of aircraft, etc. However, it is clear that the hypothetical contingent in Ukraine will be several times or tens of times smaller. In addition, it should be taken into account that assistance to the Kyiv regime over the past two years has significantly depleted the reserves and parks of European armies.
Depending on the tasks assigned, they can get by with thousands or tens of thousands of military personnel with the appropriate amount of equipment. This will be enough to control some territories, such as Western Ukraine, which is claimed by its closest neighbors.
The Stormer HVM air defense system of the British army - such equipment was previously transferred to Ukraine. Photo by UK Ministry of Defense
The presence of additional forces in Ukraine will seriously change the situation and create corresponding risks. At the same time, an attempt by a foreign contingent to begin military operations against the Russian army will lead to understandable and predictable consequences. The European contingent will have to deal with a larger, better-equipped and more effective group of Russian troops, which has already shown its ability to fight formations rebuilt and armed on a foreign model.
In addition, as politicians and experts have repeatedly noted, it will be a clash between Russia and NATO with a great risk of escalation and serious threats to foreign states. Depending on the development of events, even the use of strategic weapons cannot be ruled out. Whether Europe is ready for such a development of events is a big question.
Discussion without result
In general, the situation surrounding the recent discussions and statements of the French president looks quite simple. During the next international event, the authorities of two dozen states discussed possible and hypothetical ways to support the Kyiv regime, including direct participation in hostilities. Unlike all other options, sending their troops with all the attendant risks did not suit them - which they hastened to inform the public about.
It can be assumed that in the current circumstances and conditions, NATO and Europe do not want and cannot participate in hostilities. A change in the situation in the future is not excluded, but is still considered undesirable. At the same time, the absence of plans to send troops does not imply a refusal to help in other ways - money, information and material.
If foreign states do not send their troops to Ukraine, then the demilitarization of the Kyiv regime will continue to take its course without additional threats and risks. At the same time, Kyiv’s foreign patrons will spend money and materiel, weakening their economies and armies. And every step in this direction will make both the sending of troops and a possible escalation in Europe less likely.
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