Tu-160M: a symbol of deterrence or an instrument of destruction?
Vladimir Putin in the cockpit of the Tu-160 strategic bomber. Photo Alexey Panov/TASS
So, Putin was at the controls of the updated and modernized Tu-160M.
This, of course, is good, because if the plane was shown to the Commander-in-Chief, it means that everything was brought to perfection. I doubt that anyone would risk “hanging noodles”; it could be very expensive.
Well, it’s not for nothing that some in the West are still fuming from the video sequence where Putin deigned to fly. Out of envy, probably, because not everyone is given this. I would say - the chosen ones. There aren’t that many of these planes, so if someone from abroad gets a ride on the White Swan, you know, they have to earn it.
But let's take a look from the past to the future
Everything is clear with the past: they began producing the Tu-160 in 1984, but stopped in 1992 due to the collapse of the USSR. In Kazan, thank God and the plant, they did not lose their grip and documentation and did not sell them to those who wanted them (as in the Yakovlev Design Bureau with the Yak-141), but maintained in combat-ready condition those vehicles that they managed to produce. Low bow and warm gratitude.
Now, different times have come, and even though they will tinker with the hypothetical PAK DA for another 10 years and it is not a fact that they will give birth to something decent, the president ordered the resumption of production of the Tu-160.
The factory coped with the task, but there is a small “BUT”: an aircraft manufactured in 1984 and an aircraft manufactured in 2024 are, as it were, two different aircraft! Forty years in aviation evolution is not just a lot, but a lot. Like two generations.
And even more has changed over these forty years. In addition to the fact that lamps were replaced by transistors, and transistors gave way to microcircuits, the web of production chains, which was stretched across many republics of the former Soviet Union, was also broken.
And here comes modernization
In general, we do a lot in spite of, not thanks to. This happened this time too, and Kazan aircraft manufacturers were able to accomplish another labor feat: make a new aircraft.
Not externally, of course. Internally. Externally, the Tu-160 cannot be distinguished from the Tu-160M, but inside they are two completely different aircraft. And the modernized aircraft is an aircraft of the 21st century with all that it implies: the automatic on-board control system, the fuel management complex, the aviation system, and the weapons control system have been replaced. Naturally, in the new aircraft control system there is no room left for analog instruments; it is completely digital.
Experts believe that the digital system not only simplified and facilitated the work of the crew, but also improved many flight and operational characteristics. There is no reason not to believe them; a digital system is naturally more accurate and not subject to external influences in the same way as an analog one.
So the task set in 2018 can be considered completed. Then it’s just a matter of building new aircraft from scratch.
Here, assessing the work of all KAZ employees, it is necessary to note that the creation of a new aircraft also required new technologies. Some aspects had to be changed due to their obsolescence, and some had to be replaced because they remained outside the borders of Russia. To recreate the Tu-160, it was necessary to modernize part of the plant, and for the appearance of the Tu-160M, it was necessary to modernize almost all production areas. And a lot was missed. The main task of restoring production of the Tu-160 was the task of restoring beam welding of the central beam of the aircraft. But they did an excellent job.
In January 2022 it happened historical event. The newly built Tu-160, more precisely, the Tu-160M immediately made its first flight from the airfield in Kazan. A new countdown has begun.
Now let's talk a little about what these aircraft are rich in in terms of weapons.
X-55/X-555 are rather old and not very easy to maintain doomsday missiles.
Kh-15P/S in a non-nuclear version is an option for conducting conflicts of the SVO type. The missile is even more ancient compared to the X-55, but is not without charm in terms of its speed of 4-5M at the final leg of its aeroballistic trajectory.
X-101/X-102 is more modern weapon, very long-range, and therefore slow. The cruising speed is about 1 km/h, but the flight range is up to 000 km.
X-BD. This is a modernization of the X-101, aimed at increasing the flight range, and, according to the Minister of Defense, the range of the new missile reaches 6 km at the same subsonic flight speed of up to 500 km/h.
Total: The Tu-160M is primarily a strategic missile carrier, designed to transport missiles as close as possible to enemy territory for the subsequent launch of cruise or aeroballistic missiles with nuclear warheads at targets on enemy territory.
Well, secondly, the Tu-160 can (but is not necessary) be used to strike targets on the territory of the same Ukraine with cruise missiles with non-nuclear warheads.
Why not? First of all, the cost of such a strike exceeds all reasonable limits. Expensive rockets, expensive planes. The Tu-95 and Tu-22M can now cope with such tasks quite well. This, by the way, is the answer to the question why our strategic bombers do not fly.
In general, a strategic missile carrier is a deterrent weapon by its very presence or an instrument for delivering the first and last nuclear strike. Using it as a regular long-range bomber or missile carrier is like driving a Lamborghini to the market for groceries. There are a lot of show-offs, but the exhaust in terms of price/quality ratio will be so-so.
As the practice of the Northern Military District has shown, the Tu-160 is really not needed there; all objects on the territory of this country are within the reach of missiles launched from cheaper carriers. And considering how our air defense works in the northwestern defense zone (we won’t clarify anything further, everything is clear), the moral and reputational damage from the loss of such an aircraft as the Tu-160 will be simply enormous. Although, after the loss of two more rare A-50 vehicles for the VKS, heads did not roll, but I emphasize that the people will not understand and will not appreciate the destruction of such vehicles as the Tu-160 for the sake of some trivial bombing of targets on the territory of Ukraine.
And in general, the Tu-160 can now puzzle a third of the world from the airspace above its main base in Engels.
Here, by the way, it makes sense to generally look at how this aircraft can be used in principle, because based on these views we can understand how much it costs us to build a Tu-160M.
So, the plane: a supersonic bomber that reaches speeds of up to 2 km/h at an altitude of up to 200 m. The maximum operating altitude is up to 12 m.
The height is not the best, but we can achieve it. In terms of speed, the Tu-160 is a more difficult opponent, because it will be a big problem for any modern aircraft to catch up with it. Only the devilish machine MiG-31 can really catch up, the rest will compete in speed and will not have time to catch up with the Tu-160, because it is a bit difficult.
But no one will actually catch up with this plane due to the futility of this activity. The interception will be carried out from the front hemisphere, so the chances are much greater. Will the Tu-160's defensive systems be able to deflect everything that a flight of F/A-18s fires at it? Of course not. In a collision with enemy fighters (read NATO), the Tu-160 is doomed. Traps, interference - everything is, of course, good, but not so long ago I saw a video in which one plane, not as large as the Tu-160 and indeed not as fast, tried to fight off two anti-aircraft missiles with its defensive systems. It didn’t work out, one missile “missed”, and the second one shot down the plane.
Considering that no one will skimp on the Tu-160, many planes will be sent to intercept. Many planes - many missiles. Then everything is clear.
This means that there are only two options for using these machines.
Option one: North
On the one hand, you can forget about the base in Olenegorsk. The take-offs and movements of such aircraft as the Tu-160 and Tu-95 are under the constant attention of the NATO satellite constellation, and in the event of a flight of missile carriers to the Murmansk region, the air forces in the newly-minted NATO countries on the Scandinavian Peninsula will immediately be put on notice. Where, by the way, American planes will be based.
In this situation, it would be nice to acquire a “jump” airfield on the Vorkuta-Salekhard-Novy Urengoy line. Places with well-established logistics can be built there. And from there you can easily go to the Svalbard – Franz Josef Land line and from this line you can easily demolish Canada and at least half of the USA.
Well, closer to Spitsbergen, you can generally have a mental mess; again, intercepting Tu-160s flying to Spitsbergen from Finland by any NATO aircraft will not be easy due to the range.
But in any case, this situation is much safer than taking off next to the Finns and Swedes.
Option two. East
There’s no need to invent anything here, everything was invented by our great ancestors. Base Belaya, in the Irkutsk region, for example. Departure from there to the Kamchatka/Commander Islands area (with mandatory cover from fleet, which is sad) and work from there. At the same time, demolish Hawaii so that no one there has time to twitch.
That's it, there are no more options.
The West (Europe) is continuous enemy territory, and flying through the south is quite risky because it is too far.
It turns out that our strategic bombers, which recently flew so beautifully over the whole world, are actually locked over Russian territory today. This, of course, is not very pleasant to understand, but in fact it’s okay, because you yourself understand the extent of our territory. And it allows the most important thing - to get closer to the enemy, while being under the relative protection of our air defense.
It is clear that when the final battle begins, everyone will forget about the gentlemanly rules of warfare. The last war will follow the rules “The barn burns down, so does the hut,” so everyone will go into battle. And, accordingly, all parties will make every effort to minimize damage to their territory.
It sounds stupid, but it will happen.
In this regard, the role of aircraft is not very significant. They are not as vulnerable as ground-based complexes, especially mine ones, whose coordinates are known and which will be the first attack on all sides.
Airplanes, if they manage to take off, will become an additional chance, since they will actually be able to reach the lines and launch missiles at targets. And the enemy is already having a headache about how to neutralize these missiles.
If we have, say, 30 missile carriers, then their total salvo could consist of 360 Kh-BD or Kh-102 missiles. This is more than enough to completely confuse the enemy’s air defense/missile defense system.
And if we add to this a strike from a short distance from submarines, then Judgment Day will truly come for America.
And here the vast territory of Russia will be a plus, because it is somewhat easier to hit a square of American territory than to hit the 11 thousand kilometers of Russian space.
But that's just the theory.
In practice, it turns out that the Tu-160M is both our weapon of deterrence and an instrument of world destruction. Do we need a fleet of a hundred of these aircraft? Probably not. This is both expensive and not entirely practical. But having, say, 30-40 aircraft will be quite enough to cool down hotheads all over the world. Such a number of missile carriers, on the one hand, will provide a decent power sword (in terms of the X-102) of 360 megatons in the best case and 90 megatons in the worst (warheads for the X-102 come with a capacity of 250 ktn or 1 Mtn).
In any case, this is a very decent sword, with a long blade, again, at least 5,5 thousand km and a maximum of 6,5 thousand km.
In general, it’s just a matter of small things: build another 20-30 aircraft. I think that in Kazan they will eventually pick up the pace and do it within 10-15 years. Whatever you think, such an instrument of containment or destruction is necessary in the arsenal. Even if it will never be used for its intended purpose.
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