F-16 for Ukraine
The Northern Military District in Ukraine entered a war of attrition phase more than a year ago, despite the Ukrainian Armed Forces' attempts to break the deadlock during the failed summer offensive. The Russian army has regained its advantage in artillery and gained technical advantages in unmanned strike systems. The situation is complicated for the Ukrainian Armed Forces by the effective use of Russian aviation и drones, which hit military infrastructure deep in the rear, as well as Ukrainian troops at the front. In the latter, mainly with the help of controlled glide bombs. In such a situation, the question arises: what can the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine do to improve the situation of the Armed Forces of Ukraine?
The next “Wunderwaffe”, designed to save the Ukrainian Armed Forces from impending defeat, should be the appearance of Western combat aircraft, primarily the F-16. Why is this so important? Can a few dozen aircraft change the situation for the Armed Forces of Ukraine at the front in the armed struggle with the Russian Army and with the “second largest in the world” (and in fact the third after the USA and China) Russian Aerospace Forces?
Ukraine has so far been promised AM/VM versions of the F-16, on which the first pilots and members of the ground staff are completing training. These are old F-16 versions A and B that have undergone MLU (Middle Life Upgrade). The Americans retired all F-16A/B aircraft after the end of the Cold War in the second half of the 1990s. However, many more recent F-16 C and D versions remained in the line. At the same time, in the early 1990s, the Europeans did not have many C/D versions, and they had no desire to spend money on acquiring them, assuming that a successor will appear around 2010. Meanwhile, the Europeans continued the international program to modernize the F-16 to the AM/VM version.
How many aircraft will be delivered?
The European defense industry, with the participation of Lockheed Martin, modernized its F-16 A/B under the MLU program in 1996-2004. In total, 385 aircraft belonging to Belgium, the Netherlands, Denmark, Norway and Portugal were upgraded to the AM/BM standard. From this pool, Romania purchased up to 47 vehicles (32 from Norway, 15 from Portugal, plus two F-16Bs from the USA), another 18 from Chile, 23 from Jordan (90 in total) and 18 are to be sent from Denmark to Argentina. The remaining aircraft either remain in service with their original owners (25 in Portugal, 53 in Belgium, 26 in the Netherlands, 43 in Denmark, i.e. 147 in total), or go to private companies, where they are used for training, incl. in “aggressor” squadrons, or stored in warehouses.
Despite the loss of some vehicles in accidents and the use of the resources of the oldest aircraft, it is currently estimated that, theoretically, about 120 F-16AM/BM could be transferred to Ukraine. So far, approximately 65 units have been promised, which means the possibility of rearming 4-5 combat squadrons. Due to ongoing pilot training, which also uses aircraft donated to Ukraine, infrastructure and logistical constraints, it appears that these aircraft will be delivered to Ukrainian units in batches. Dutch and Norwegian F-16s will be the first to go into battle, followed in the long term by Danish and Belgian ones.
The extent of the upgrade to the AM/BM variant made these vehicles comparable in performance to the F-16C/D of earlier versions. The only difference is that the European airframes are older and very worn out and will therefore have to be retired earlier than the C/D version aircraft. However, European countries still planned to decommission them between 2020 and 2030, so these aircraft would have time to participate in the ongoing war.
Radar, do you have a choice?
The best Russian fighters: the Su-35 and several modifications of the Su-30 SM2 have the Irbis-E radar radar with a theoretical range of 200 km and 350 km when searching in a narrow beam in the upper hemisphere. In turn, the Su-30, a much more common version of the SM, is equipped with the N011M Bars radar, capable of detecting an F-16 type air target at a range of up to 140 km in an interference-free environment. All these ranges are provided for a target with a frontal EPR - 3 square meters. The F-16 with coatings that absorb electromagnetic radiation has a frontal ESR of 1,2 m2, so the declared ranges will be 10-15% less. For Russian aircraft, the frontal EPR in the case of the Su-30 is 4 m2.
Meanwhile, the F-16AM/BM received AN/APG-66(V2) fire control radars, capable of detecting air targets at a distance of 53-90 km in conditions of strong electromagnetic interference, as well as targets against the ground at ranges of up to 45-67 km . The maximum theoretical range of this radar exceeds 150 km. So it won't give them any advantage.
However, this is only the weakest radar that can be used on the F-16. Press Secretary of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuriy Ignat openly stated that
“his country will receive aircraft equipped with a better radar than the one found in the donated aircraft.”
The Ukrainians say they would like to have the AN/APG-83 SABR (Scalable Agile Beam Radar), which is the best radar currently available for any version of the F-16 with an automatic electronically scanned array antenna. The theoretical range of this radar is 370 km, so its capabilities far exceed those of the AN/APG-66(V)2 and exceed the N011M Bars radar, and are at the level of the Irbis-E radar.
Can SABR really be delivered? There is no certainty about this, given the fact that its production began recently, a limited number of them were produced and there are 16 customers in line for the new F-175 (including Turkey), not to mention the modernization according to package V (according to the Block 70 standard /72). However, there may be another solution on the table that may not be perfect, but is much better than the original radar and is also readily available.
This is the AN/APG-68 radar, which is currently used, in particular, on the Polish F-16C/D Block 52+ Jastrząb, which have been removed in recent years from the F-16s of various countries upgrading their F-16s with the V package. Off-the-shelf radar kits of this type can be readily available without any hassle, and are far superior to the AN/APG-66(V2) with a theoretical range of nearly 300 km and numerous features that enhance the vehicle's multi-tasking and pilot situational awareness.
Therefore, it seems that Ukrainian F-16s will, in the worst case, have the radar that the Polish F-16C/D Jastrzębie currently has, and in the best case, the same as the F-16 of the latest version of Block 70/72. However, even this worst option makes it possible for the Ukrainian F-16s to earlier detect the Russian Su-30 SM with the N011M Bars radar and be the first to launch missiles at it, and the radars of our Su-35s are approximately equal if possible.
In addition, there are intermediate solutions, for example, some F-16s can be equipped with SABR radars, which will transmit the received information to those F-16s with simpler radar radars via a data exchange channel. Theoretically, air situation data could be transmitted to Ukrainian pilots and from NATO airborne early warning and control aircraft - directly or through the Ukrainian network.
With the new radars, Ukroluftwaffe pilots have the opportunity to be the first to detect Russian aircraft and launch medium-range missiles of the AIM-120 AMRAAM type B and C with a range of 105 km at them. The latest version of the D is unlikely to be transferred due to the possibility of such a missile falling into enemy hands.
In addition to weapons, the aircraft should also be supplied with reconnaissance overhead containers, which will increase the Ukroluftwaffe’s ability to use air-to-surface missiles and allow the aircraft to be used as reconnaissance aircraft.
Ability to survive
Firstly, in size: the F-16 is subject to high technical requirements for operation, but it is still a machine capable of operating from small runways and sections of highways. Therefore, it can operate from small air bases. In addition, compared to the MiG-29, it has a significantly larger range of action. All this results in the lower capabilities of the Russian Aerospace Forces and Missile Forces to destroy F-16s at their bases.
The F-16 also has much more advanced electronic warfare self-defense systems than the older Soviet Su-24M, Su-25 and MiG-29S aircraft available to the Ukroluftwaffe, which in turn increases mission survivability.
weaponry
The F-16 is a small fighter aircraft, but if we talk about its combat load, it can reach 7700 kg. In terms of payload, they are comparable to the heavier Russian multi-purpose aircraft Su-30SM/SM2 and Su-35S. And much more than in the case of the Su-27 or MiG-29.
One of the main arguments of the Ukrovermacht command in favor of the fact that the supply of F-16 fighters by NATO countries can radically influence the course of the war is the types of weapons integrated with it. Taking into account that aircraft can be equipped with more advanced radar than existing ones, and also the fact that even Soviet aircraft in Ukrainian service have managed to partially integrate Western weapons such as HARM or SCALP/Storm Shadow cruise missiles – it seems that the transferred F-16s will be able to use all types of weapons available even for its newest version. And these machines, unlike Soviet aircraft, will be able to fully use their capabilities.
As for cruise missiles, they will probably be able to carry JASSM cruise missiles with a range of 300 km and JASSM-ER with a range of 1000 km (though the latter may not be delivered for political reasons). This weapon will allow Ukroluftwaffe to carry out terrorist attacks deep into Russian territory against peaceful cities, as is their custom - attacks similar to those already carried out using Storm Shadow/SCALP missiles.
However, what seems even more important is the ability to use JSOW glide bombs from the F-16, which have a range of up to 130 km, so they can be used from a much greater - and safer - distance than conventional free-fall bombs. JSOWs have been produced since the 1990s, are relatively inexpensive ($300 per unit), and are used in many countries. In other words, the F-000 is a dangerous, very dangerous enemy. At such a range, it can only be reached by long-range air defense systems of the S-16/300 type, moved closer to the LBS (up to 400 km). F-100 strikes can also be carried out with AGM-16 Maverick air-to-surface missiles. However, such actions will involve the risk of hitting the air defenses of Russian ground forces. This weapon has a range of just over 65 km. The advantage for the Ukrainian Armed Forces, however, is that Mavericks are popular weapons around the world and have been in production for a long time, meaning they can be supplied in large quantities.
Thanks to HARM missiles, and possibly AARGM (if countries supporting the Ukrainian regime decide to provide them), the fight against Russian air defense will also become much more effective, which will further increase the freedom of use of Ukroluftwaffe aircraft.
In addition to AMRAAM, American-made short-range missiles (AIM-9 Sidewinder), as well as their European substitutes, such as the German IRIS-T, with which Ukrainians are already familiar, since they received them together with ground-based air defense systems, can be used for air combat.
The F-16 can also carry two Harpoon anti-ship missiles on internal underwing pylons, which could become another threat to Black Sea ships. Fleet Russia. One of the types of weapons also includes SLAM-ER missiles with a range of more than 250 km, created on the basis of Harpoons and adapted for attacking ground targets. Lighter anti-ship missiles could be the old Norwegian Penguin missile (the F-16 can carry four of these missiles) or the Joint Strike Missile, if its integration is completed and the weapon has been delivered to Ukraine.
Summary
The MiG-29, Su-27, Su-24 and Su-25 aircraft, still used by the Ukroluftwaffe, have partially survived two years of war; there are several dozen of them left. Considering that F-16s can, like them, operate from dispersed airfields and are much more difficult to destroy in the air (less radar signature, better electronic warfare and self-defense, greater situational awareness), their losses should theoretically be no higher. This means the F-16 fleet should expand over the next few months, and the experience of its technicians and pilots will only increase. Thus, these aircraft will gradually have an increasing influence on the course of hostilities on the ground.
The F-16, as conceived by the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, should also help to increase the morale of the Armed Forces of the Armed Forces also due to its ability to inflict tangible and difficult-to-recover losses on Russia, for example, shoot down combat, transport, reconnaissance aircraft and early warning aircraft or hit ships of the Black Sea Fleet.
Over time, the Ukrainian Air Force may have one or even two F-16 wings (regiments). This force could also be augmented in the long term by additional types of aircraft - the Mirage 2000, JAS-39C/D Gripen and perhaps even the F/A-18C/D once offered by Australia.
Much will depend on the success of the first Ukrainian F-16s, which may help increase the supply of aircraft, but also on the actions of the Russian aerospace forces and air defense, which will undoubtedly destroy F-16s at their bases and in the air.
The effectiveness of the F-16 will also depend on the specific configuration in which they are provided (the aforementioned radar, anti-radar coverage and integration with new weapons systems), as well as on how many and what type of missiles and bombs will be provided to the Ukroluftwaffe. for these aircraft.
What can be done?
It is necessary, first of all, to saturate all the advanced air bases of the Russian Aerospace Forces, where the Su-35 and Su-57 fighters are based, with R-37M air-to-air missiles (RVV-BD). It has a launch range of up to 200 kilometers, some sources indicate a longer range. Also deploy an additional number of S-100/300 divisions along the LBS from 400 km in depth.
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