For the Su-35 we are waiting for the Su-57!
An-124 at Tehran Merkhabad airport. Atlaskhabar Photos
Yes, thanks to our readers for paying attention to our partner Iran. And there in the media there are very lively discussions on the topic of supplies from Russia. A news portals (TABNAK, Atlaskhabar, Shahrekhabar) very sublimely called the “Day of Dawn” the next arrival of the An-124 aircraft belonging to the Russian Aerospace Forces at Merkhabad airport, one of the two airports in Tehran.
The specifications of the cargo have not been disclosed, but the militaristic part of the Iranian audience (and in fact, few people there claim to be compared with the dove bird of peace) expresses great hope that the Russian giant’s hold contains vehicle kits for Su-35 fighters.
At one time, the Iranian Ministry of Defense informed the country's citizens that the first of 67 ordered Russian aircraft would soon begin to arrive. The reaction was more than warm, especially on resources where an audience similar to ours gathers. Especially among fans aviation. And when the first ones arrived under their own power...
Here you just need to understand what the Iranian Air Force is. In one word, everything is very bad.
The last arrival of aircraft to the Iranian Air Force occurred 33 years ago, when Iraqi Air Force aircraft flew into the country, which the pilots wanted to save from destruction by coalition forces during Operation Desert Storm. Thus, the Iranian Air Force was replenished with MiG-29 (36 units), Su-25 (10 units), Su-24 (24 units), Dassault Mirage F1 (10 units). Today, the value of these aircraft, which were previously operated by the Iraqi Air Force, is more than doubtful due to their age and resource consumption.
The main backbone of the Iranian Air Force is the F-14 Tomcat, produced in the 70s of the last century. The planes are very good for their time, but just as old as the Iraqi ones. We will not talk about the value of the F-4 Phantom II (the most recent one was released in 1981) and the F-5 Tiger II (the most recent one was produced in 1986), since we all understand perfectly well: the Iranian Air Force is far from the best air force, not to mention world, in the region.
The Iranian military, while the country was isolated, did not give up trying to create their own aircraft. However, developing an airplane is much more difficult than a ballistic missile, and while the Iranians frankly succeeded in the latter, they absolutely failed with airplanes.
First HESA "Azarakhsh" was built, then HESA "Shafaq". Both aircraft were the fruits of reverse engineering of the American F-5 aircraft and were manufactured in small series of less than 10 units. The last bitter experience of HESA “Kowsar” was so unsuccessful that the car did not even go into small production.
All attempts to indirectly copy the American F-5 were unsuccessful, which set the Iranian Air Force back to where it was in the 80s.
So the Iranians were left to improve their UAVs and ballistic missiles, where they achieved decent success, and the Shahed generally revolutionized the tactics of modern warfare.
Any advanced reader will already ask the question: why doesn’t Iran buy planes externally? But everything is not easy here: at one time it was more expensive to buy Iranian oil due to the sanctions imposed by the West. Moreover, the sanctions concerned not only the purchase, but also the sale of something to Iran; in general, the United States very effectively twisted the country into a ram’s horn, practically prohibiting any cooperation in the military sphere.
Everyone knows that China is very friendly towards Iran and Pakistan, and Pakistan is generally a strategic partner of China, but if Chinese weapon is flowing, but it didn’t work out that way with Iran. Many primary and secondary sanctions stopped even China from wanting to help, and things did not go beyond single deliveries of Chengdu J-7 (MiG-21) training units.
And only in 2020-2021, when there was simply nowhere to fall further, Iran resumed negotiations with Russia, which also suffered from Western sanctions imposed in an assortment. And as a result, in 2022, a semi-informal gentlemen’s agreement on mutual assistance was concluded between the two countries. On a good neighborly basis, as it became clear. Sometimes it really isn't necessary to cover every step in a relationship with signed documents.
In general, Iran was lucky because around the same time Egypt began the process of withdrawing from the Su-35 deal concluded in 2018. The bottom line is this: Egypt ordered 24 Su-35 aircraft, but the deal was actually thwarted by the United States, promising to supply 20 F-35 aircraft. And the F-35 deal, in turn, was blocked by Israel, which did not need such a neighborhood at all and had the right to do so under the terms of the Camp David deal.
As a result, CAATSA - Countering America's Opponents through Sanctions ("Act of Countering America's Adversaries through Sanctions") hit not only Russia, but also Egypt, which will now have to be content with its American-French-Chinese-Russian zoo in the Air Force. A US federal law passed in July 2017 under the Trump administration aimed at providing the United States with legal tools to impose sanctions against "destabilizing activities of the Iranian, Russian and North Korean regimes" left Egypt without both the Su-35 and the F-35.
But Iran got a chance to take back the planes already produced under the Egyptian contract and those that will be produced. All. And, naturally, he will take not only 24 Egyptian ones, but also those that will be manufactured under the Iranian contract. That is, another 45 aircraft.
But this topic is not quick and complicated, and here’s why: personnel. Yes, there is such an obstacle on the way to heaven, and it is called preparation. In April 2022, a small team of very professionally (according to the Iranian side) trained pilots arrived in Russia. To the city of Komsomolsk-on-Amur.
In general, the pilots had to study the Su-35 and evaluate it in terms of the possibility of use in the Iranian Air Force. It’s hard to say who examined whom more, but the Iranian aces, who were still flying Phantoms, themselves took the exam on a 21st century machine. And, it should be noted, both groups of participants, both people and planes, survived.
To say that Iranian pilots liked the Su-35 is an understatement. But what can we say if the most modern fighter in the Iranian Air Force is the MiG-29 of the first production? Of course, the 35th looked like a killer monster from a horror movie in comparison, so a lot of positive reviews are quite expected.
And in November last year, when the deal on the Su-35 was practically finalized, representatives of the Iranian Air Force began talking about purchasing Mi-28MNE helicopters for the IRGC Air Force. But in general, the appetites of the Iranian military extend to the figure of 120 aircraft, and helicopters will also be attached to them.
Will Russia make aircraft for Iran? Certainly. In general, this union of two outcasts is a useful thing for both sides. First of all, military orders from outside are useful for Russia; they have a beneficial effect on the economy, bringing customers’ money into it. Especially today, when, on the one hand, there are a lot of orders from VKS, and the same money is circulating in the budget. We need an influx.
As for Iran, everything is clear: the first normal renewal of the aircraft fleet in more than 40 years is serious. Considering the fact that the aircraft fleet is being renewed, even more so. In general, Iranian pilots can be congratulated from the bottom of our hearts, because getting the most modern fighter of the “4++” generation at their disposal is a very strong move. And considering the state of the Iranian Air Force, the strength is multiplied by two.
And here we need to take into account one more factor: to be honest, I didn’t find any information about what they hang in Iran under the wings of their planes, but I am 100% sure that this is far from the most modern weapons. And if we talk about the normal operation of the Su-35, then in addition to the usual technical consumables, you will also need appropriate weapons! Missiles from the 70s of the last century on the Su-35 are like riding a Ferrari to the wholesale market to buy vegetables. It’s possible, and there’s a lot of show-off, but there’s absolutely no effectiveness.
The Iranian Air Force still has the same problem: frankly ancient aircraft have frankly decrepit weapons. And here again there is a breakthrough: Russia will probably supply the Su-35 with something like the R-37 and R-73, otherwise this will not be a friendly deal, but who knows what.
It turns out to be a situation of “carrying - not dragging,” because in addition to aircraft, Iran will have to carry a full set of consumables, spare parts, send technicians and engineers who will train Iranian technicians and engineers, without this, the whole idea is doomed to failure. That is, before pilot training and full operation begin, an entire training program will have to be carried out and a decent chunk of the aircraft’s service life will be burned up.
But the game is worth the candle. And Tehran understands this very well, and (which is generally not typical of the Persians) is ready to wait, calmly and patiently, for Russia to provide all this. Understanding that Russia now has certain difficulties.
And let’s think for a second, who besides the United States should be offended by the appearance of three aviation fighter regiments in the Iranian Air Force? Well, yes, that’s right, Israel should think about it. It is very difficult to predict the result of a collision between an Iranian Su-35 and an Israeli F-35 Agir. Of course, on the Israeli side there are very high-quality pilots with full combat experience, and the plane is quite good, but no one is saying that Iranian pilots will directly rush to settle scores with the Israelis. Simply delivering another blow to Iranian advisers in Syria will be a little more difficult than before.
But the Israeli military should no longer think about the Su-35. The capabilities of this aircraft, in principle, are already known to everyone in the world, and the military operations in Ukraine only confirmed the reputation of a very formidable fighter.
But it is known that appetite comes with eating. Back in 2018, the Iranian military was very interested in the progress of work on the Su-57. Considering that the aircraft underwent full testing in Syria and Ukraine, where it showed all its strengths, it is doubtful that this interest has waned.
Considering some similarity in the equipment of the aircraft and weapons systems, the Iranians do not hide the fact that the Su-35 could become a kind of springboard to the Su-57. And here it’s also interesting, especially if you remember the Russian-Indian joint project on the Su-30. And Iranian orders are what can push the entire Su-57 program and make the aircraft cheaper in mass production. Accordingly, it is beneficial for both Russia and Iran.
And this will be a completely different scenario, and then Israel will have to think very hard. The F-35 in their design may be an excellent aircraft (who knows, it has never really fought with anyone except the Palestinian infantry), but the Su-57 may turn out to be at least no worse, and even better.
In general, understanding the relations between the two countries, we can expect combat tests of both aircraft somewhere in the skies over Syria.
But this is the scenario of the future. However, the future is such a peculiar thing, it can come. And for some in the future, the alliance between Iran and Russia is a very unpleasant thing, since the two countries will not only be able to support each other in all areas of cooperation, but they will also definitely become an example for those who are hesitant and are watching the US reaction very carefully. Apparently, soon the United States will no longer care about everything that is happening in the world; its internal problems are multiplying there like cockroaches.
In Iran, the first delivery of Russian fighters was called very pathetically: “Day of Dawn.” Good title, it's really a start.
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