How much does Geranium cost?
"Geranium-2" approaching the target. Photo by AFP
Since the fall of 2022, the Russian army has been using attack unmanned kamikaze aerial vehicles of the Geranium-2 type in the Special Operation to protect Donbass. This technique and its successful application immediately attracted the attention of the foreign press and specialists. They tried to establish the origin of the new UAVs, the features of their production, as well as the cost of serial products and the economics of their combat use.
First versions
The first versions of the origin and price of Russian “Geranium-2” appeared already in September-October 2022, shortly after the start of their use. Based on the appearance of these products and the characteristics of the debris found after the strikes, foreign countries concluded that these UAVs were of Iranian origin. It was assumed that "Geran-2" is a renamed or localized version of the "Shahed-136" product, developed in Iran.
Abroad, they immediately tried to assess the technical potential of the new Russian UAV and its economic features. Due to the lack of accurate data, different versions and estimates have been proposed. A version according to which the price of a serial “Gerani-2” is at the level of 20 thousand US dollars has become widespread.
It was assumed that it is the limited cost of such products that allows the Russian army to purchase them en masse and actively use them. In the fall of 2022, dozens of weapons could be used simultaneously in massive attacks on military and dual-use infrastructure. drones and comparable quantities of missile weapons. If the Geraniums were more expensive than the estimated 20 thousand, organizing such attacks would be more difficult, if not impossible.
According to new data
Strikes on Ukrainian targets using Geranium-2 have long become regular and do not attract the same attention. Nevertheless, people abroad continue to be interested in such drones and are trying to obtain new information. Recently, new information of this kind appeared in foreign sources.
Reportedly, one of the foreign hacker groups was able to hack the resources of an Iranian company engaged in cooperation with Russia, and obtained documents on the sale and joint production of attack UAVs. Published documents and presentations reveal organizational issues, some plans, etc. In addition, the cost of production of serial drones is given.
Attention should be paid to the dubious origin of the published documents. It is unclear whether they are real and whether they can reflect the real state of affairs. It cannot be ruled out that we are talking about an “information operation” and the injection of data by foreign intelligence services. For what purpose they did this is a big question.
Published materials claim that the Iranian side initially set a price of 375 thousand US dollars (approx. 23 million rubles) for each Shahed-136 / Geranium-2 UAV of its production. During further negotiations, the cost of the equipment decreased. So, with a series size of 2 thousand units. The price of one product was reduced to 290 thousand (18 million rubles). The three times larger series gave a price of 190 thousand dollars - 12 million rubles. Complete localization of production at the Russian site will reduce the price to 48,8 thousand dollars or 3 million rubles.
Recently it has been reported that the Russian army is developing other UAVs that are similar to Geran-2, but have their own characteristics. Again they were assumed to be of Iranian origin. According to papers from hackers, the Shahed-238 jet drone, similar to the Geranium-2, costs $1,4 million and its mass purchases are already planned. A similar device with an optical-electronic guidance system was valued at $900 thousand.
The result of the destruction of the Geran-2 UAV object. Photo Telegram / Dambiev
Old estimates and new data on the cost of the Geranium drums differ by an order of magnitude. The reasons for this are generally clear. The version about the cost of the drone at $20 thousand was purely speculative and not based on facts. Now they are offering supposedly real documents with information from direct participants in the production. At the same time, a fake cannot be ruled out - and its authors could have written any numbers that corresponded to their intentions.
Economics of Impact
Despite all the efforts of foreign analysts and the alleged actions of hackers, the real cost of the Geranium-2 UAV and other similar products remains unknown. Available estimates differ by an order of magnitude, and it is unclear which of them is closer to the truth. However, in this case, we can note the main features of attack drones and the economics of their combat use.
The maximum estimate of the cost of “Geranium-2” in foreign sources is 375 thousand dollars. It is alleged that mass production made it possible to reduce the price by approximately half. In both cases, the strike UAV turns out to be significantly cheaper than the Caliber or Kh-101 cruise missiles, also used for attacks on Ukrainian targets. At the same time, the level of performance of the drone and missiles corresponds to the assigned combat missions.
The relatively low cost of "Geraniums" allows you to organize massive strikes. Dozens of such products can be used simultaneously, targeting objects in one area or almost throughout Ukraine. If necessary, UAVs are complemented by other strike weapons, but the cost of the attack generally remains low.
Iranian launcher for the Shahed-136 UAV. Photo Telegram / Dambiev
Experience in the operation and use of Geranium-2 shows that one such UAV can cause damage to the enemy beyond its cost, even if we take the maximum estimate of the latter. In this case, it is necessary to take into account not only the cost of the destroyed object, but also the consequences of such a strike for the infrastructure, armed forces of the enemy, etc. The total damage could be even greater.
Due to the design features and flight characteristics, the Geran-2 UAVs are quite a difficult target for enemy air defense. Not all anti-aircraft weapons available to Ukrainian formations can detect such targets and are guaranteed to hit them. Accordingly, the drone’s chances of breaking through air defenses and hitting a target increase.
If the UAV is shot down, it will also cause some economic damage to the enemy. The fact is that the main types of anti-aircraft missiles in service with the Ukrainian air defense are at least not cheaper than the Geranium. Intercepting such a drone will be more expensive than launching it. At the same time, the Kiev regime has far from endless reserves of anti-aircraft weapons, and foreign patrons also face restrictions when organizing supplies. However, in their justification, they can consider that the expensive interception of Geranium-2 made it possible to eliminate much greater losses.
New UAVs of the "Shahed" series of Iranian production. Photo by Iranian TV
Cost issues
It is obvious that military equipment and weapons must not only show the required tactical and technical characteristics, but also have an acceptable price. The cost of production and operation must correspond to the financial capabilities of the army and the tasks being solved. According to this logic, both advanced designs with the highest characteristics and simple but cheap products can be effective and useful.
The Geran-2 attack kamikaze drone and other examples of this family have been demonstrating the correctness of this approach since the fall of 2022. They have a simple design and are relatively cheap to manufacture, so they can be produced in large quantities and actively used for massive strikes.
The production and use of such equipment does not require special expenses, but allows it to inflict significant damage on the enemy - disabling its facilities and at the same time depleting its arsenals of anti-aircraft weapons. In light of the goals and objectives of the current Special Operation, weapons with such capabilities and features look useful and necessary. And we should expect that strikes using Geraniums will continue.
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