New US strategy for Ukraine
The Kiev regime is still of some interest to the US military and political leadership. In this regard, Washington is now working on plans to further support it and obtain the desired strategic results. At the same time, the goals of the new plans have become much more modest than before, and no longer provide for a complete victory over Russia, and also include well-known restrictions.
Failures and plans
In 2022-23 foreign partners and patrons actively supplied the Kiev regime with money and various material items, and also provided it with other types of support. Due to these measures, Ukrainian formations were supposed to stop the Russian army and launch a counteroffensive. However, all these hopes were not realized. The notorious “counter-offensive” failed, and all allocated funds were wasted.
Despite failures in the recent past, the United States and its allies are not going to give up their support for the Kyiv regime. However, they are faced with a lack of money and equipment, which is why they are now developing new methods and means of assistance. Some of these plans have already been approved, while others are still being discussed.
In mid-January, the UK took the first step in this direction. It signed an agreement with Kiev providing for various assistance measures and joint activities over the next 10 years. The main provisions of the agreement determine the procedure for cooperation and disclose other organizational issues. In addition, provision is made for the provision of financial and military assistance to the Ukrainian side.
Ukrainian MiG-29 with an American AGM-88 missile. Photo Telegram / BMPD
The foreign press claims that new agreements of this kind may appear in the near future. Allegedly, dozens of countries are already ready to put on paper their readiness to support the Kyiv regime. However, new agreements similar to the British-Ukrainian one have not yet appeared.
New strategy
Washington remains the main partner and patron of the Kyiv regime. Now he is experiencing certain difficulties with supporting Ukraine, but is not going to give it up. In addition, it recently became known about the development of a new strategy, which is expected to be used by partners from Kyiv in the near future.
The American publication The Washington Post reported on the development of new plans at the end of January. The publication received information about this from its sources in the highest echelons of US government. How true it is is not yet clear. The published information has not yet received official comments. At the same time, Washington regularly talks about its intention to continue supporting the Kyiv regime.
According to TWP, the new strategy is being developed by the US State Department with the approval and assistance of the White House. They gave several weeks to work through the issues; The finished result is expected in the spring, but a more precise date cannot yet be given. It is expected that the new strategy will cover both the coming months and longer periods.
American HAWK air defense system in Ukraine. Photo Telegram / BMPD
The main task of the United States and Ukraine for the coming months, until the end of 2024, is to stabilize the front. It is necessary to organize defense and not allow the Russian army to occupy new territories. New attempts at a counteroffensive are simply canceled due to the virtual impossibility of organizing and executing them. At the same time, the possibility of moving the front line, “exchanging territories” following the results of battles, etc. is not excluded.
The TWP notes that frontline combat and artillery duel activity that characterized 2022-23 will decrease markedly this year. This will happen, first of all, due to the deterioration of the corresponding potential of the Ukrainian formations.
To compensate for such a drawdown, the authors of the strategy propose that the Kyiv regime concentrate its efforts on long-range targeted strikes using available systems and means. Thus, they want to use foreign cruise missiles to attack remote Russian targets, contain the Black Sea Fleet, etc. They also consider it necessary to strengthen sabotage activities against various targets on Russian territory.
Against the backdrop of stabilization and retention of the front, US strategists propose to carry out military construction and increase the combat capability of Ukrainian formations. By the end of 2024, their potential should grow and ensure further active action. In particular, at the next stage a new counter-offensive cannot be ruled out, and in this case there is even a chance of success.
American Patriot air defense system in Ukraine. Photo: Thedrive.com
It is proposed to achieve the set goals in the field of combat capability through the Kyiv regime’s own efforts, as well as with the help of comprehensive assistance from the United States. New supplies of various military equipment will be provided. It is also planned to help with the restoration of industry and establish the production of some products directly in Ukraine. In parallel, they can assist in carrying out political and economic reforms necessary for full integration into international structures.
Critical difficulties
The State Department and the White House are working on new plans to help the Kyiv regime and drawing up a strategy for at least the next year. The documents will be ready over the next few weeks or months, but it is not yet clear whether they will be approved and accepted for execution. In addition, the possibility of fully implementing all plans and obtaining the desired results is also in question.
Washington's new strategy provides for continued financial and military assistance to the Kyiv regime, which requires money. It won't be easy to get them. The Democratic Party has been trying for months to push through a $61 billion aid plan for Ukraine, but is facing aggressive opposition from Republicans.
This situation is unlikely to change in the near future, and the Republican Party will simply not allow a new strategy to be adopted. At a minimum, she will require substantial “compensation” of one kind or another. How long the debate on this topic will continue, and what the Democrats will have to sacrifice to help Ukraine, is a big question.
Self-propelled gun M109 with additional protection. Photo Telegram / Dambiev
Even if the White House manages to pass a new package of documents through the authorities and accept it for execution, the results still remain in question. As part of the new strategy, Washington will be able to spend about $60 billion, which is noticeably less than the total spending for 2022-23. As a result, it will not be able to maintain the previous volumes of financial assistance and the pace of supplies of materiel. Accordingly, Ukrainian formations cannot count on rearmament at the recent level.
Experience 2022-23 also showed that financial and military-technical assistance to the Kyiv regime is a dubious idea. Despite the assistance of all of NATO, the Ukrainian formations were unable to carry out the promised “counter-offensive”, but suffered heavy losses. Any attempt to carry out a similar operation with the current or expected reduction in supplies will end the same or worse.
According to TWP, the US State Department in its new strategy proposes that Ukraine hold the front and attempt strikes over the next year. It is unlikely that Ukrainian formations will be able to solve such problems in their current state and in the absence of large and expensive assistance from abroad. They can only count on isolated small-scale successes that do not affect the overall picture.
Doubtful prospects
Despite all the opposition, Russia continues the forced demilitarization of the Kyiv regime. Ukrainian formations are trying to resist, but in general the situation is not developing in their favor. In turn, the United States and its allies are looking for new ways and means to help Kyiv and restore its combat capability for a full-fledged confrontation with the Russian army.
This time, Washington is drawing up an entire counter strategy, which includes measures of a different nature and is planned for at least a year in advance. However, its acceptance for implementation and the allocation of the necessary funding is still in question, as is the possibility of full implementation. Thus, Washington, represented by the current presidential administration, is again faced with the consequences of its military-political adventures. Whether he will be able to find a way out of this situation and at what cost, time will tell.
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