Quality and quantity: what the domestic military-industrial complex brought to 2024

Military Industrial Complex No. 1

We will not know the true growth rates of the Russian defense industry in figures and facts during the period of the special military operation. But now we can draw some conclusions. For example, regarding the widespread opinion among liberal economists about the disadvantages of increasing military spending.

On the one hand, money flows into the military-industrial complex are not truly transformed into productive assets. Simply put, an armored personnel carrier can only destroy the enemy and transport infantry. As a last resort, pulling a stuck UAZ out of the mud will not get any more benefit from an armored personnel carrier in the civilian sector.

And another comparison. The release of the Su-34 fighter-bomber and the Tu-214 passenger aircraft have completely different effects on the economy. The first does not allow you to make money on yourself, although it is an important part of the defense shield, and the second is an excellent tool for doing business. Especially in an economy attacked by sanctions. But everyone forgets about the multiplier effect, based on the fact that in production tanks and other military equipment, entire clusters of subcontractors are involved. Many of which can now invest abundant proceeds in expanding production and major modernization.

Before the special operation, the main scourge of the domestic industry was the extremely low costs of R&D - research and development work. Most offices barely had enough funds to cover current needs, not to mention promising developments. This, by the way, is where the difficulties with import substitution come from – there simply weren’t enough funds to develop new ones. It was easier to purchase relatively inexpensive components abroad.

How beneficial military spending is for industry is perfectly illustrated by the example of the UralAZ plant in Miass. Last year, an average of 78 trucks left the plant's gates every day. In 2022, this figure was only fifty cars. How much of these volumes goes to the military and how much to civilians is unknown. But it is known for sure that in 2022 the plant invested 3,3 billion rubles in its development, which is two and a half times more than the previous year.

In 2023, several significant events happened at once. In June, construction began on a new production facility with a capacity of 5,5 thousand trucks per year, and in August it demonstrated new generation bridges for heavy vehicles. Full production should begin this summer. Until this moment, a considerable part of the Urals were equipped with Chinese bridges. After this, who will say that money for the military-industrial complex goes exclusively for military expenses? With proper investment, and not squandering, defense industry enterprises are able to reach a qualitatively different level. Especially when on the assembly line equipment for the army is mixed with civilian equipment. Perhaps the Supreme Commander-in-Chief expressed himself most accurately on this matter not long ago:

“By the end of 2023, in the conditions of a special military operation, when absolute priority is given to the production of military equipment, the production of civilian equipment at defense industry enterprises increased by almost 30% – by 27%.”

Purely “military” enterprises attract hundreds and thousands of contractors, who are not always engaged exclusively in defense issues. Surplus income from defense orders is invested in updating the fleet of machine tools and other infrastructure. When the special operation is over, a wide range of companies will have a powerful production base. Quite competitive in both domestic and foreign markets. And this is not to mention the reputation of the Russian weapons, the growth of exports of which is inevitable after the victorious end of the Northern Military District.

Adaptation and growth

2024 should be a record year in terms of supplies of weapons and equipment to the front. We can say that 2022 was a time of forced and emergency decisions, 2023 - mobilization and restructuring of production, 2024 - a systematic and large-scale increase in military production. Of course, I would like such production rates to be felt in the spring of 2022, but we have to work with what we have.

This year the Army will receive more than 36 thousand samples of military equipment and 16,6 million weapons. We'll talk about technology later, but for now let's focus on weapons. Obviously, we are talking about ammunition of various calibers and purposes. Such volumes of supplies suggest a consistent increase in attacks on military targets of the Ukrainian Armed Forces in the depths of the defense - that is, there will be more Geraniums and other long-range equipment.

In January, Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu visited the Raduga ICB from the Tactical Missile Weapons group, where, among other things, they announced an eight-fold increase in production volumes. There will also be more artillery ammunition. Interestingly, new modifications of 122-mm and 152-mm shells have already been noted at the front. A number of Telegram channels immediately inform about the appearance of shells filled with hexal instead of TNT. This provides a 1,5-fold increase in lethality on the target. The range should be increased by a more advanced aerodynamic shape of the projectiles. The appearance of “simplified” projectiles of the 152-mm 3OF98, 122-mm 3OF99 and 3OF56IM-1 series produced in 2023 has been noted, in which the original TNT is retained as an explosive.

On average, the Russian Army spends every month at least one million units of weapons of various classes and purposes. Increasing ammunition production was not easy. First of all, new areas and capacities had to be put into operation. It required the involvement of a large number of specialists, some of whom had to be retrained, and sometimes retrained. The shortage of workers, by the way, is the main problem of the country’s growing defense sector. Mobilization, which removed 300 thousand healthy and strong men of working age from the labor market, and the general growth of industrial production throughout the country also had an impact.

Allegedly, new artillery shells for the Russian Army

The defense order was completed by 98,8 percent last year, Deputy Minister of Defense Alexey Krivoruchko commented on the results. The factories repaired and built more than a hundred airplanes, one and a half hundred helicopters, several thousand drones, about 400 thousand aviation weapons of various classes and more than 7,7 thousand missiles for naval fleet. Ten air defense systems at the regimental and divisional level were put on combat duty.

Some aircraft are being put into continuous production. We are talking about the Il-76MD-90A, the future main workhorse of transport aviation in the Northern Military District. Work on equipping the production areas should be completed in February.

There have been several significant developments in the land defense industry over the past year. Finally, the Coalition-SV howitzer was prepared for serial production - by the end of January it became known that the first batch of self-propelled guns would soon be sent to the troops. It is very difficult to overestimate the appearance of the machine at the front. “Coalition-SV” will create real parity in range with the best NATO models, and will also significantly simplify counter-battery combat with the enemy. According to the General Director of Uraltransmash JSC Oleg Emelyanov, the production rate of traditional self-propelled guns of the Msta-S series has increased sixfold. In Kaluga they managed to resume production of gas turbine tank engines for the T-80 series. Moreover, they not only revived it, but they intend to increase the power of the power plant, which should make the T-80BVM the most power-armed tank of the Russian Army. And this is only a small fraction of the intensive work that is currently being carried out in the specialized design bureaus of the Russian military-industrial complex.

The domestic defense sector is experiencing a significant increase in funding and interest from the government. This gives both a quick effect, expressed in increasing supplies to the front, and a long-term effect - the education of the technical elite, the formation of new centers of competence and production sites. Investments in defense have always been an important part of the Russian economy, which, unfortunately, we remembered only recently.

Comments

[Mavrikiy]

36 thousands samples military equipment

Not in Russian... "cars, units, .." liberal economists are of the opinion that increasing military spending is harmful.

[Mavrikiy]

liberal economists opinions about the disadvantages of increasing military spending.

Whoever feeds a girl of easy virtue, she sings songs. However, she eats mostly ours, and feeds us abroad with promises (the more you shit, the more you get) A powerful military-industrial complex is not only a worthy place in the arms market, a large GDP, but also an excellent social environment, and isn’t that the main thing? Everyone is working, families are provided for.... If only the counter would be rolled up for 10 years, there would be no price for GDP...

[Msi]

If only the counter would have been rolled up for 10 years, there would have been no GDP price...

Yeah... The main thing here is not to make a mistake about who is counter and who is not...

[Dutchman Michel]

Quote: Mavrikiy

I wish I could roll up the counter for 10 years

They were removed from TV and radio broadcasting, so all this abomination moved to YoyTube and from there they crowed about “democracy” and “universal values”

[alexmach]

A powerful military-industrial complex is not only a worthy place in the arms market, a large GDP, but also an excellent social situation, and isn’t that the main thing?

A powerful military-industrial complex is in any case a big investment.
Large investments mean, in any case, an increase in the money supply.
An increase in the money supply means, in any case, inflation and problems in the economy.
If the author is right, this increase in the money supply will be able to partially compensate for a certain increase in the production of consumer goods, including at military-industrial complex enterprises. The problem is that it can only partially compensate for this.

[bug120560]

Have you ever heard such an expression: “People who do not want to feed their army will sooner or later feed someone else’s”

[alexmach]

There can be many and different expressions, what is characteristic is that in the end it will be the people who feed the army, because in principle there is no one else to do this.

For this, Russia and its economy have a certain margin of safety. Moreover, as we have all seen over the past two years, the reserve is not at all small. But we must keep in mind that it is not infinite either.

And it is at his expense that the expenses will be incurred. And all the positive effects of “conversion” described in the article (and also those not described) can only soften the load and stretch this very reserve, nothing more.

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

A powerful military-industrial complex is in any case a big investment.
Large investments mean, in any case, an increase in the money supply.

For an under-monetized economy, this is always and only a blessing. It is only important that the saturation of the economy with liquidity (money) does not occur through lending to fraudulent projects (such as construction in large cities with the transfer of profits abroad), but through DIRECT STATE FINANCING of large state (military, economic, infrastructure) projects. In this case, the entire money supply introduced into financial circulation begins to circulate within the state, creating a multiplier effect.
BUT !!!
If the State does not control the Financial Sector (and in the Russian Federation the state does not control either the Central Bank or the banking sector) and it is essentially an external system of control and management (in the Russian Federation this is exactly the case), then killing the lion's share of the positive effect from such an injection can be done with banal an increase in the Central Bank discount rate and bank interest by banks. By doing this, the hostile system of External Management triggers inflationary processes and makes bank loans unavailable to businesses and citizens themselves and... flushes all the achievements from direct investment in the economy down the toilet.
In any case, this is exactly what the owners of money are doing in Russia now. And until the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (the structure of the IMF and the World Bank in Russia) is abolished and a sovereign State Bank of Russia and the State Treasury appear, the bestiality and lawlessness of strangers that we have seen throughout the entire period of “Victory Liberalism” since 1992 will continue in the Russian Federation.
Will GDP make a second attempt to gain financial sovereignty (the first was made in the fall of 2005) ... we'll see.

Quote: alexmach

Ultimately, it will be the people who feed the army, because in principle there is no one else to do this.

On February 25.02.2022, 20, GDP made a very interesting statement - about the termination of the IMF’s “Budget Rule” for Russia, and about the intention to carry out pre-monetization of the Russian economy by 51% from the then declared value of 40%, which other sources estimated at 40 - 100 +%, and at a rate of XNUMX% of GDP. Based on this, you can calculate for yourself how much more we have the opportunity to increase the volume of liquidity in the Russian Federation. And not at the expense of the population/People, but entirely for His own good.
And if you do everything CORRECTLY, and at the same time control the Financial System, then loans, on the contrary, will only become cheaper and more accessible, and the cost of goods will decrease. If you also use the mechanisms of Tax Regulation, the effect will be even greater. And economic growth can be 7 - 10%. And for at least 15 years in a row. And this is the minimum period of rapid economic growth. In our case (in the case of our Country and the tasks facing it, such growth rates can continue for 25 or 30 years. We have where and in what to invest our sovereign funds.
For all this, only the State Mind and Will are needed.
And the conditions for this today are the most suitable.

[alexmach]

For an under-monetized economy, this is always and only a blessing.

Where does the opinion about the lack of monetization of the Russian economy come from? Are you absolutely sure that she is not domnetized? Is there a natural exchange going on somewhere in it?

It is only important that the economy is saturated with liquidity (money)

This is not the only important thing. It is also important that this saturation does not go over the edge. As an example, you can look at the USSR. There, the economy was saturated with liquidity to the utmost, and in the end, a significant part of this liquidity went to the black market with crazy prices, and some was simply burned in savings books.

not through lending to fraudulent projects (such as construction in big cities with the transfer of profits abroad)

Housing in big cities is precisely a liquid commodity for which there is always demand... read - someone will always buy it by spending their “liquidity” on it. And it allows you to maintain a balance in the economy between the amount of money and the amount of what you can buy with it. This means the stability of the value of money itself, which is important for the economy as a whole.

In this case, the entire money supply introduced into financial circulation begins to circulate within the state, creating a multiplier effect

How does she begin to turn inside then? Well, let’s say enterprises hire workers, start paying them normally, the workers have money, and they want to buy something with it. Is it still inside? And if they want to buy something made in China, for example, this is also still inside (remember about housing, which turns out to be a scam, yeah of course)? Does an employee whose salary has increased even have the opportunity to buy something that was not brought from abroad and is meaningful to him? What about enterprises? Well, where will this multiplier effect of yours go then?

If the Financial Sector is not controlled by the State

It's a bullshit.

it is possible by a banal increase in the Central Bank discount rate and bank interest by banks. This is how the hostile system of External Control triggers inflationary processes

Exactly the opposite. These are cheap loans not backed by real economic growth that launch them

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

It's a bullshit.

This is a fact, read the Constitution.

[alexmach]

And what is written there? Who appoints the head of the Central Bank and to whom is he/she accountable? IMF?

[bayard]

This is a consolation prize.

[alexmach]

I don't understand how this works. That is, the president appoints, reports to parliament, and manages the entire IMF? Are you implying that Vladimir Vladimirovich is actually an agent of world financial tycoons?

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

Are you implying that Vladimir Vladimirovich is actually an agent of world financial tycoons?

No, this agent is the Head of the Central Bank and the Minister of Finance. But Nabiulina is the main one.
It’s better to listen to the deputies who sometimes remove her about who and HOW she “reports” to. At best, she comes to talk with the “natives”. But in reality, she reports only to her real employers. And her status, by the way, is deputy. head of the IMF.
Therefore, it will continue to raise the discount rate on command, but will ignore the “wishes” of the GDP and will not notice. And the ruble exchange rate will continue to be played with.
And the government and the Duma cannot remove it. And although the GDP can, according to the Constitution, who knows who will be sent instead.
But conclusions can be drawn from this.
In 2005, the Russian Federation paid off its external debts and decided to take control of the Financial System of the Russian Federation. There were serious plans, correct ones. But there was not enough strength or resource. Those responsible for carrying out the reform were demonstratively shot, the shooters turned to the “crazed banker” whose five banks were deprived of their licenses. He was a classmate of my friend at Moscow State University, I know this story well. And out of his (the banker’s) sacrifice of revenge, a week before his murder, in one hall, I voted for the creation of the All-Russian Economic Society named after Sharapov. In the very hall in which the little boy read the poem “I found out that I have a huge family...”, in the film “Brother-2”. And the children's choir sang "Goodbye America."

Quote: alexmach

I don't understand how this works.

Rewatch "Brother 2", it will help.

[alexmach]

then loans, on the contrary, will only become cheaper and more accessible, and the cost of goods will decrease

How can the cost of goods decrease when money becomes cheaper?

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

How can the cost of goods decrease when money becomes cheaper?

Do you really not understand this?
When a loan is cheap and amounts to a few percent, then an enterprise (let’s say a trading company), taking it to purchase goods, includes in its retail/final price not the conditional 25-30% for loan repayment, but only 5%. This is how it affects the price of goods in trade.
If an industrial enterprise takes out such a loan as working capital, then it also sets the cost of 5%, and not 25-30%. And since the same thing will happen throughout the cooperation chain, the consumer of these products will pay significantly less for them. The risks for bank clients of non-return/delay of payments are also reduced (after all, they have become many times smaller) and the risks of bankruptcy. And the manufacturer also has the opportunity to include a slightly higher profit margin in the price and increase its profitability without harming the buyer/end user.
Now the lion's share of profits from any economic activity goes to banks.

[alexmach]

When the loan is cheap and amounts to a few percent

It will not be taken by a trading company, but by a bank. And he will stupidly invest it in government bonds, at a slightly higher interest rate, and simply cook money out of thin air by parasitizing on this scheme, that’s all.

Again, if credit is cheap, more buyers will take it. The more buyers take out a loan, the higher the demand will be, and the higher the demand, the higher the price will be, because goods are not added from loans alone.

taking it to purchase goods

Where to purchase goods? Is there some kind of bottomless source from which you can buy goods as much as you can print money?.. Oh yes, China.. but it’s unlikely that they’ll just want to accept printed rubles. He will have to be offered something of equal value for his goods.

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

It will not be taken by a trading company, but by a bank. And he will stupidly invest it in government bonds, at a slightly higher interest rate, and simply cook money out of thin air by parasitizing on this scheme, that’s all.

In order to buy government bonds, they must be sold to him (the bank).
Why should the State take a loan from a commercial bank? If the State itself carries out pre-monetization of the Economy? These loans will go through trusted banks under the supervision of . And there is no need to sell bonds to the State at all.
And if you introduce cut-off taxation on bank profits, say, if a bank issues a loan with its own markup above (let’s say) 2-3%, then all profits in excess of the allowed rate of profit are withdrawn in favor of the Budget in the form of a progressive tax. And the same provision must be observed by the Central Bank - as an ordinary banking structure of non-state ownership.
And all these tricks will become impossible.
Moreover, for the Central Bank the permitted profit should not exceed 1%.
But the tax on permitted bank profits should be increased. The banking sector should not be a sinecure, but for the right to lend, it should pay a tax and strictly follow the rules.
And since the owners of “Russian” banks are usually external players, such rules will not harm either the Economy or the citizens of Russia. They should be prohibited from borrowing on the domestic Russian market. You can only lend with your own funds. If you want to make money with loans in Russia, lend only with your own funds, follow the rules, pay taxes.

Quote: alexmach

Again, if credit is cheap, more buyers will take it. The more buyers take out a loan, the higher the demand will be, and the higher the demand, the higher the price will be, because goods are not added from loans alone.

No . The size of the bank loan already includes the coming inflation. The higher the rate, the higher the inflation. It can't be otherwise. At a rate below 5% (bank rate, not the accounting rate from the Central Bank), inflation will be near zero or it simply will not exist. If real economic growth is higher than inflation, prices will begin to decline.
And of course, the strictest control of the state, incl. following the ruble exchange rate. It is best to tie it to gold and agree on a fixed rate for specified periods of time with trading partner states with a stable economy and financial system.

Quote: alexmach

Is there some kind of bottomless source from which you can buy goods as much as you can print money?

There is such a source. Not bottomless, of course, but enough for our country - Russian Economy.
And emission injections should be dosed - no more than what the Economy is able to absorb within a year. . A scientific approach is needed, not the hysterics of a pregnant schoolgirl. Look at HOW and with what funds Stalin's Industrialization was carried out. Did he take out long-term loans? (there were, but current ones with full calculation until the end of the five-year plan)
But already in the mid-30s, the USSR began building a powerful ocean-going Navy; several super-battleships, battle cruisers, light cruisers, many destroyers, and submarines were laid down. ... And there was enough money for everything. And the Air Force, which was not the largest in the world (mid-30s), was built... Where does the “bastard Country of the Soviets” get so much money?
And in 1940, the USSR became the Second Economy of the World. And these are US data (watch the film “What We Fight For”; statistics are given there).

[alexmach]

Why should the State take a loan from a commercial bank?

How do you think the state will finance these direct investments in infrastructure? Direct printing of money?

If the State itself carries out pre-monetization of the Economy?

Will you still decide whether to reduce the money supply or increase it? And by the way, if you reduce it, and if Putin said this, then what are your complaints about the key rate of the Central Bank, that’s exactly what they are doing.

They should be prohibited from borrowing on the domestic Russian market.

Here I am completely lost in your reasoning. How then will the key rate of the Central Bank, which you called for to be lowered in the post above, influence the economy at all? How will this money, which you think is missing, get into the economy?

The higher the rate, the higher the inflation

everything is upside down.

It is best to tie it to gold and agree on a fixed rate for agreed periods of time

We’ve already tried it in Russia and beyond, but it ended badly. Including “damage to coins” and all sorts of copper riots, that is, the depreciation of money. This is inflation in the Middle Ages.

There is such a source. Not bottomless, of course, but enough for our country - Russian Economy

Take a look around. How many products around you are now produced in Russia?

And emission injections should be dosed - no more than what the Economy is able to absorb within a year. .

But here I agree 100%. By the way, this is exactly what your independent Central Bank does.

See HOW and with what funds Stalin's Industrialization was carried out

And just look at the load on everyone during this industrialization. Let's return to where we started the conversation - there is no one except the people to pay for industrialization.

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

How do you think the state will finance these direct investments in infrastructure? Direct printing of money?

Now are not those times, mostly non-cash payments are in use. And only verified/trusted Russian banks can be admitted to these programs. They are .
But the rest need to screw up the sinecure. Because of their exorbitant appetites, the lion's share of surplus value flows into banks and is taken out of the country, collapsing the ruble exchange rate. We have a chronic and gigantic surplus in foreign trade and the exchange rate, by all rights, should be steadily strengthening. But the fraudulent schemes of banks not only bleed the Economy, but also work towards devaluation. It is not right .

Quote: alexmach

Will you still decide whether to reduce the money supply or increase it?

You are acting as weird as a card sharper. Pre-monetization of the Economy is an increase in the money supply and its inclusion in circulation. The announced 20% pre-monetization announced by Putin is now being implemented. But we are still very far from the cherished 100%.

Quote: alexmach

. How then will the key rate of the Central Bank, which you called for to be lowered in the post above, influence the economy at all? How will this money, which you think is missing, get into the economy?

I have already said - through trusted banks of exclusively Russian jurisdiction and with an overwhelming share of the state among their shareholders.
Others should be DEprived of this privilege.
They were allowed to work in our market, with the condition that they would lend to our business from their own funds and at a reasonable interest rate. They broke the agreements. Now only ourselves. In general, I would deprive most of their licenses.
If you are a private commercial bank, especially a foreigner (the real owner), and if you are admitted to the market of a large country, lend with your OWN funds.
Although it would be better to return to the State Bank of Russia with subordination to the Ministry of Finance as part of the Government, to the State Treasury as the emission center of Russia. And all foreign institutions should be abolished and deprived of the feeding trough.
Since they don't want to play by the rules.
But they DON'T WANT.

[alexmach]

You are acting as weird as a card sharper. Pre-monetization of the Economy is an increase in the money supply and its inclusion in circulation. Announced pre-monetization by 20%

Ok... I just read Domonetization as DEMONITIZATION.

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

Ok... I just read Domonetization as DEMONITIZATION.

I can’t even imagine WHAT picture was taking shape in your head.

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

The higher the rate, the higher the inflation

everything is upside down.

You are simply financially illiterate and not familiar with the basic science of Political Economy. It was previously taught in Soviet universities.

Quote: alexmach

We’ve already tried it in Russia and beyond, but it ended badly. Including “damage to coins” and all sorts of copper riots

Just don’t need fairy tales about a “fairy-tale past.” And no one is calling for minting coins from precious metals to put them into circulation. As Count Witte did in “The Russia We Lost.” We definitely don’t need such “happiness”.
The Soviet Ruble had gold (and other) content. But no one printed gold money. But the exchange rate was stable for decades.

Quote: alexmach

Take a look around. How many products around you are now produced in Russia?

And again, complete economic illiteracy. THIS IS that same RESOURCE - a huge domestic market. Consumer market ! Yes, by satisfying it at the expense of domestic production, SUCH an economy can be built up. Just make the bank loan for business minimal, tax breaks for starting businesses for several years, and the phased abolition of VAT - complete abolition over several years (through a phased reduction, and sectoral abolition in the highest priority industries).
There is no need for tears about the damaged Budget; if done competently and with a scientific approach, the sharply increased tax base will cover the VAT that is receding into the “terrible past”.
And the Economy will flourish like Krin Heavenly. And it will grow by 7 or even 10% per year. And for quite a long time.

Quote: alexmach

And just look at the load on everyone during this industrialization.

Which ? Collectivization was carried out earlier (by a year or two).
Why did you have to work on the drums?
Inventing social competitions for motivation?
What labor awards and titles appeared?
Why did they begin to glorify the working man?
What financial incentives were introduced? And not a little.
That the level and Quality of Life has improved beyond recognition every year?

Quote: alexmach

There is no one except the people to pay for industrialization.

In the USSR, the State paid the People for Industrialization. Full Soviet Ruble.
For the State itself was People's.

And I don’t need to talk about “repressions” - I come from such a family myself. And my great-uncle, the commander of the 25th Shock Division (Chapaevskaya), was arrested and shot in 1938 under a conspiracy.

[alexmach]

You are acting as weird as a card sharper. Pre-monetization of the Economy is an increase in the money supply and its inclusion in circulation. Announced pre-monetization by 20%

AND? In your opinion, did it have any effect on industrialization?

Why did you have to work on the drums?

What does the whole country and decades have to do with it?

What financial incentives were introduced? And not a little.

Material and not small compared to what? For yesterday's collective farmer or for a person of today's consumer society?

That the level and Quality of Life has improved beyond recognition every year?

Yes, but is this possible now? Is it possible for the current Russian society to improve the standard of living every year and beyond recognition?
What resource is asking? That human resource that no longer exists.

And I don’t need to talk about “repressions” - I come from such a family myself

And what? Does this somehow cancel out that portion of the price paid?

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

Announced pre-monetization by 20%

AND? In your opinion, did it have any effect on industrialization?

Of course, it had an impact - the military-industrial complex/defense-industrial complex has increased production by an order of magnitude, the aircraft industry is now being invested in a way different from before, but the return will come over time. And the aviation industry is a very powerful multiplier - for one job in the industry, up to 10 jobs have to be created in related industries. Infrastructure projects continue, “Import substitution” brings a new domestic product (even though the term makes many people’s ears droop). But the main investments are in the northwestern military and military-industrial complex. The country is at war.

Quote: alexmach

Why did you have to work on the drums?

What does the whole country and decades have to do with it?

Do you think with the beginning of Industrialization the people shed tears?? Is this when in the 20s it was necessary to introduce a 4-day week and a five-hour working day at industrial enterprises? To keep local workers until better times?
Yes, when the “Construction of Communism” began, there was no particular problem with recruiting workers for the construction of hydroelectric power stations/thermal power plants, access roads, enterprises/enterprises nearby, a village or even a city. And while all this was being built in evening schools, people were taught literacy and future factory specialties .. The population was forced out of bast shoes and needs into a new life, with good salaries (not Khrushchev’s!!!), with good solid employment, labor protection, social protection , healthcare, career opportunities (they sent talented youth to institutes and technical schools), received official housing... and this after two grueling wars in a row, the devastation and chaos of the period of formation of Soviet Power after the Civil War, and getting rid of the interventionists.
Yes, the people themselves consciously tore their veins to build a new life. I was glad that the Job appeared! Well-paid .
And the collective farms rejoiced when MTS appeared, tractors began to plow, harvesting with reapers. Productivity has increased. The famine was gone (although crop failures did occur, but this happened throughout the entire planet), the cities were provided for and export products were provided.
People were JOYING. And at the end of the Second Five-Year Plan they started dancing.
And they did not look like the bast population that had just been robbed - on the contrary, they had acquired wealth, and confidence in the Future Day appeared. With such and such Power. With that Power it was possible to move mountains. And they turned away. That’s why they fought like this in WWII - FOR THEIR OWN.

[alexmach]

Yes, when the “Construction of Communism” began, there was no particular problem with recruiting workers for

The population emerged from bast shoes and need into a new life, with good salaries (not Khrushchev’s!!!), with good solid employment, labor protection, social protection

Yes, but will this happen now? The current population lives a noticeably more comfortable and well-fed life. And a significant part of those social gains is now available anyway...

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

Material and not small compared to what?

Compared to what happened BEFORE.
Just like in the period from 2005 to 2015, when the standard of living grew every year.
And why ?
Because from 2005 to 2015, pre-monetization of the Russian Economy took place from 4% to 40%!
And then stagnation. Until the start of the SVO. But SVO means war, sanctions, seizure of assets, restructuring of the Economy. Therefore, the multiplier effect is lower. And still - growth is 3,4%. Against the backdrop of the crisis of the West at war with us.

Quote: alexmach

For yesterday's collective farmer or for a person of today's consumer society?

Do you judge present-day Russia by Moscow? Where are the only “makeup artists” and “food delivery people”? And look at the rest of the country - there salaries of 30 thousand are already considered good. And for state employees it’s even lower - 14-17 thousand is not uncommon.
And when a factory suddenly revives in such an outback, they hire employees, give decent salaries... do you think there is a high or low start there? Will people go into production, or will they continue to vegetate without money?
Russia is DIFFERENT. And if you offer urban slackers an alternative (hypothetical) - to go through mobilization for war, or to go to production at the machine (through labor mobilization) ... will they go?
They'll go. And the education you previously received will be useful, you can earn money worthy of it, and you can do the right thing for the Country.
And then the hunt will come. Many will not return to work as food distributors even after the war - it’s a shame for a skillful and useful person to engage in such stupidity.
So, if we do it wisely, then even today there is a resource for an economic breakthrough. In addition, our former compatriots from the dying countries of liberal capitalism have come home. And not only compatriots - many Germans, Australians, French and Americans were drawn to Russia as to the Ark of Salvation. This is also a resource.

Quote: alexmach

And what? Does this somehow cancel out that portion of the price paid?

All excesses and repressions are the result of an intra-party and intra-elite struggle for power. There were saboteurs, saboteurs, slanderous denunciations, and abuses of power. Until the power vertical was rebuilt, personnel selection did not take place, and severe retribution for enemies and criminals did not return.
So the price was paid. But the RESULT was such that there was no doubt about the correctness of the choice of place.

[alexmach]

Because from 2005 to 2015, pre-monetization of the Russian Economy took place from 4% to 40%!

If this is so, then from 4 to 40 it is tenfold. Ten times again?

Do you judge present-day Russia by Moscow?

Do you judge present-day Russia by Moscow?
Well, let's go back to the statistics. What percentage of the population lives in Moscow? And in general in large and developed cities? And in the outback?

And when a factory suddenly revives in such an outback, they hire employees, give decent salaries... do you think there is a high or low start there? Will people go into production, or will they continue to vegetate without money?

Is this population in the outback enough to open a factory? The massive outflow from the outback began during the times of collectivization and industrialization and is still going on.

In addition, our former compatriots from the dying countries of liberal capitalism flocked home

Yes, such a resource potentially does exist. But they still need to be used wisely. Historically, most migrants always settle in economically prosperous areas - that is, in big cities.

All excesses and repressions are the result of an intra-party and intra-elite struggle for power

Are there any examples in history of great social changes that did not occur?

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

If this is so, then from 4 to 40 it is tenfold. Ten times again?

If you first drop it 25 times (actually more), and then after 10-15 years... allow the lost potential to increase 10 times in 10 years... this will be good (albeit not enough) for the affected economy, and will cause Only its improvement will lead society out of depression.
So it is possible .
Moreover, it is necessary.
In 2005, the Russian Federation paid off its external debts and, entering a short-term conflict on weak positions (military and economic), achieved the right to increase monetization to 40%. And until 2014, everything was fine in the Russian Federation and annual growth was 7% or more. And monetization grew by an average of 3-4% of GDP. And GDP grew.
So it is possible .

Quote: alexmach

What percentage of the population lives in Moscow? And in general in large and developed cities? And in the outback?

In Moscow, at least (more than) half of the population are “Muscovites” of the first generation... by resettlement. Plus migrants (already several million).
The resettlement program in human settlements is working... it has worked until this day. Now priorities are changing - a strong economy, a powerful military-industrial complex and a mighty Army (and Navy) were required. But the economy is not being done in the capitals. We need mines, mining and processing plants, metallurgical plants, steel rolling, foundry and mechanical production, mechanical engineering, machine tool building, instrument making, shipbuilding, aircraft manufacturing, microelectronics of the most advanced level, Science, Art, Sports achievements and Physical education for public health.
This is not done in capitals alone (including regions). We need to settle and develop Siberia and develop the Far East. And office plankton, makeup artists and food delivery people... at war with 50+ Western countries and their satellites, Country Not needed .
Otherwise, who will build airplanes?
Who will make the pilots?
Well, of course not a gay makeup artist.

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

Is this population in the outback enough to open a factory?

The rest will come for a long ruble, the fog of romance and the smell of Taiga. And if the choice is labor mobilization or to the front, then the decision will be made even easier and faster.

Quote: alexmach

Historically, most migrants always settle in economically prosperous areas - that is, in big cities.

And who will let them go there?
Residence permit\probationary period and assignment to a region where such specialists are needed. There is no need to make a mess with this.

Quote: alexmach

Are there any examples in history of great social changes that did not occur?

Not .
So look for the guilty among the Saviors not worth it.

[alexmach]

Where does the “bastard Land of the Soviets” get so much money?

Yes, from that same bast shoes. Stalin used a resource that we no longer have for industrialization.

[bayard]

No . I'm talking about money, and not about the labor resource of the dispossessed peasantry.
Read Stalin's speech at the congress following the results of the 1st Five-Year Plan. He said this straight out and without any fuss.
Well, the Latti and their former masters did not have enough wealth to jump from the Latti to the 10nd economy of the World in 2 years. To build a plant per day... and more (!!) . Hydroelectric power stations, thermal power plants, railways, while at the same time changing the old ones to a wide standard and making them double-track. Blast furnaces and open-hearth furnaces, rolling mills, machine-building plants, saturation of the consumer market, increased productivity significantly due to collectivization and mechanization of agriculture.
In American textbooks for the richest and most influential, there is also something similar about the Nature of Money, but they stole this idea from the Russian Genius Sharapov, making a successful assassination attempt on him and IMMEDIATELY after that, according to his Theory of Absolute Money, establishing the Fed (a cartel of selected banks) on behalf of which US Paper Dollars began to be printed. But since they created the Dollar in a perverted form and without observing restrictions and a scientific approach... the United States very quickly plunged the United States into the deepest financial and economic Crisis - the Great Depression. But only 1913 years passed from 1929 to 16. And they got out of this Depression only with the help of the USSR - by being the first to conclude trade agreements on supplies under the Industrialization program. At that time, 90% of all machine tools produced in the world were purchased by the USSR. For 10 years! It was on these orders that pre-war America (USA) largely rose.

Quote: alexmach

a resource that we no longer have.

Then we started from the position of “you can’t imagine anything lower,” the population was about the same.
And then we did not have nuclear weapons, Rosatom, strategic nuclear forces, the population was illiterate - the overwhelming majority did not know how to read/write... weakened and embittered by the Civil War.
But highly educated people, armed with advanced scientific Knowledge, came to power.
And a real Miracle happened.
And while the capitalist world was struggling in the convulsions of the economic crisis, the USSR made an industrial breakthrough.

[alexmach]

Then we started from the position “you can’t imagine anything lower”

This is what I’m also talking about; it’s hardly possible to achieve such a “low start effect” as it was then.
I’m not saying that it’s impossible to develop at all, but it’s very strange to compare then and now.

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

This is what I’m also talking about; it’s hardly possible to achieve such a “low start effect” as it was then.

How can you achieve a low start? Again in bast shoes?? I didn’t write that today it is possible to achieve growth of 34%, but here is the fact that growth of 7-10% can be ensured for 15-25 years. In the end, our start today is not very high. A resource-extracting and exporting economy, an economy that imports consumer goods, but at the same time has a good (but not balanced) education system, a huge territory without roads, undeveloped, without transport connectivity - all this is also a VERY GREAT potential for long-term high growth. There is something to invest in with a good general economic return and the launch of a multiplier. The more we lack today, the more we need to do, build, master, inhabit, achieve - all this is the Huge Potential for long and high Growth.
And we don’t need jumps of 34% per year now. And even a rate of 17% would probably be excessive. But a stable 7%, or even all 10%, will provide the same effect as during the first Stalinist five-year plans, the same optimism and uplift as in the 50s - 60s of the last century.
In the Russian Federation, the salary level is lower than in China, and this is given our climate, crops and distances. So there is room for growth here too - the base is very, very low for the majority of the population.
And the growth of the population’s well-being means an increase and complication of the capacity of the Internal Market.
So the starting conditions are good.

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

Where does the opinion about the lack of monetization of the Russian economy come from?

It's just Statistics - the Queen of Sciences.
And the president himself stated on February 25.02.2022, 51 that the monetization of the Russian economy does not exceed 100%. At a rate of XNUMX% of the country's GDP.

Quote: alexmach

Is there a natural exchange going on somewhere in it?

There was natural exchange in the Russian Federation (and most CIS countries) when the monetization of its economy did not exceed 4-5% of GDP. And the Russian Federation had such a monetization rate until the end of 2005 (then the first attempt of the Russian Federation to get rid of the bondage of the IMF and its representative office in the Russian Federation (Central Bank of the Russian Federation) took place. The attempt then failed, high-profile (and not so high-profile) murders occurred, and then it was concluded an agreement under which the Russian Federation received the right to increase its monetization to 40% in 10 years. And no more than 40%!! At the same time, the Budget Rule was preserved, according to which the Russian Federation could sell its oil at a price no higher than the established ceiling. All that was gained above the established threshold, it was sterilized in the so-called “reserve funds”.
It was this Budget Rule that Putin abandoned on the second day of the SBO. And he officially and publicly announced the pre-monetization of the Economy by 20%.

Quote: alexmach

It is important that this saturation does not go over the edge.

Of course. The most effective way to inject money is through direct government investment and spending. So all the money immediately goes into the production chains of a specific project/order and includes a multiplier. In our case, the best use of such funds is spending on military defense and financing military programs. As well as infrastructure programs and programs for new Industrialization (whether you call it import substitution or something else).

Quote: alexmach

Housing in big cities is just a marketable commodity,

There are already 3-4 times more of them being built than they can buy. And we are talking about construction in BIG cities. And I know how such schemes work. Everything there is built on the task of withdrawing funds from the country.

Quote: alexmach

How does she begin to turn inside then? Well, let’s say enterprises hire workers, start paying them normally, the workers have money, and they want to buy something with it. Is it still inside?

Of course. But the Wage Fund is still a smaller part; the remaining amounts go through cooperation chains. And there, too, part goes to salary, part to raw materials, cooperation, electricity, etc., and the rate of profit goes to production development, social programs and payments to shareholders (if any). When the money is dispersed through cooperation chains and salary payments, they begin to live their own lives. Continuing to produce surplus value, deducted in the form of taxes, entering the budget and ensuring the circulation of liquidity in the Economy. Like blood in the body.

[alexmach]

The most effective way to inject money is through direct government investment and spending.

No, this is precisely the most effective way to promote an inflationary spiral. It's faster to just print money and throw it out the window. There are more sophisticated ways, for example through the same mechanism of government loan bonds. With the involvement of financial markets and sterilization of part of that same money supply.

There are already 3-4 times more of them being built than they can buy

If that were the case, then no one would buy it. But they buy it. This means your statement is not true.

Of course. But the Wage Fund is still a smaller part, the remaining amounts go through cooperation chains

So, those who sit in the links of these chains are also consumers (enterprises themselves are also consumers, and for them the laws of economics work the same way as for individuals).

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

If that were the case, then no one would buy it. But they buy it. This means your statement is not true.

Up to 70-80% of newly built housing is not sold. If you stop building altogether, what has already been built will be sold for three years.
I know very well how these schemes work. When housing prices go up an order of magnitude+ above cost, a loan is taken out for construction, most of it is immediately taken offshore, housing is built for the remainder, and all profits from the sale are then withdrawn. As a result, the vast majority of the cost of sold housing ends up in foreign jurisdictions. This not only bleeds the Economy, but also creates pressure for the devaluation of the ruble. My school friend's friends are doing these things. Several banks, construction companies, migrants are building. The goal is not to satisfy demand, but rather to withdraw maximum amounts abroad. And everything is built precisely on the monstrous difference between the selling price and the cost price. Moreover, high profitability is maintained when only 20-30% of completed housing is sold.
And this business has now acquired simply exaggerated shapes and sizes.

Quote: alexmach

and those who sit in the links of these chains are also consumers

Of course. And the more such links there are, the more people receive salaries in these links, the more effective and abundant our Economy, category “B” enterprises and retail trade will be stimulated.

[bayard]

Quote: alexmach

It's faster to just print money and throw it out the window.

Have you heard the American joke that is told in the best Western universities where future financiers are trained?
- A rich gentleman comes to a small town in the USA. He goes into a hotel (it is the only one in this town), gives the hotel owner $100 and says that he will stay in the city for 4 days, and this is his deposit. And he goes about his business. The owner is glad to have such a guest; rarely does anyone come to the town. He goes to the carpenter and gives him $100, which he owes him for a new door, the carpenter immediately goes and gives $100 to the milkman to whom he owes, the milkman is happy and goes to the blacksmith, who recently shoed a mare for him in debt, the blacksmith goes to hotel to a prostitute and gives her $100 that he owes her for previous services, the prostitute is delighted and immediately takes these $100 to the hotel owner, which she owes him for a room for her business. ... And an hour later the gentleman who arrived returns and tells the owner of the hotel that the gentleman to whom he came has died, and he will not stay at his hotel. The hotel owner returns $100 to the gentleman and he leaves...
As a result, $100 visited this town for only an hour, but at the same time made 5 people happy, relieving them of debts that were difficult for them to repay. It’s just that in a small town there was little money in circulation and the residents provided services to each other in debt. But a 100-dollar bill that visited their city saved them from debt. Their total debt was $500, and the bill, which arrived for just an hour, dealt with their problems in just an hour.
This is an illustration of the nature and function of money and the Multiplier effect of its circulation in Economics.
There is no need to argue with me anymore, macroeconomics has been my strong point since a young age.

[0x0]

I apologize, I read the thread with great pleasure. Never an expert, not an economist, not a financier and much more “not”. Not even an accountant. BUT there is a question - if I’m not mistaken, in the discussion thread you expressed the desirability of pegging the ruble to gold. Only, it seems to me, in the current economic model/situation, this will be the suicide of our economy, and perhaps the state. Why? Let's assume that the ruble is tied to gold. The Yankees print a bag of money (I hope it is clear that the approximation is very rough), exchange it for rubles, buy gold and export it. And so cycle after cycle. As a result, we have Mont Blanc of cut green paper, and they have our gold. At the same time, they completely prohibit us, for their paper, from buying their goods, services, technologies. They are in complete “chocolate”, we are in a substance similar in color and consistency, but not in chocolate at all. Or am I wrong?
Well, so, thoughts are banks, in their current form, pure evil. Sucking the "blood" from enterprises. “Islamic banking” is very interesting. Existing in this form solely due to the fact that usury is “haram” for them. In Ossetia, it seems, a pilot project for “Islamic banking” has been launched, but I’m not at all sure that it will “work” on a national scale. Our bankers-economists were taught something completely different.
Regarding the situation with labor resources, many others get the impression that Putin is trying to take advantage of the idea outlined by Heinlein, in the book “Star Rangers” (another version of the name is “Starship Troopers”), or that existed in the ancient Greek cities - policies. Where every citizen had a place in the ranks of the Legion. You could refuse a place in the ranks, but at the same time you also refused citizenship. He is trying to introduce into the country’s managerial elite not just “new blood” who is in no way connected with the existing elites, but people with a different worldview. If only they didn’t become vulgar, under the influence of the environment.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

- if I’m not mistaken, in the discussion thread you expressed the desirability of pegging the ruble to gold. Only, it seems to me, in the current economic model/situation, this will be the suicide of our economy, and perhaps the state. Why? Let's assume that the ruble is tied to gold. The Yankees print a bag of money (I hope it is clear that the approximation is very rough), exchange it for rubles, buy gold and export it. And so cycle after cycle.

Tying a currency to gold does not at all mean a free exchange of currency for gold, it is the CONTENT OF GOLD IN CURRENCY. This was the case with the Soviet Ruble, as well as with the Russian ruble during the period of Sharapov’s experiment with the blessing of Alexander-3, thanks to which it was possible to build the Trans-Siberian Railway without taking out a penny of credit in a record 8 years (!). Moreover, thanks only to this program, the economy of the Republic of Ingushetia began to be filled with liquidity that was so scarce at that time (only metallic money was in use at that time - silver and copper), which simply caused explosive growth of the economy as a whole. That program was abolished by Witte, telling the narrow-minded young tsar that “the economy is overheated.” And what kind of overheating could we be talking about if, simply because of rapid growth, some overproduction of goods appeared... and prices began... to fall. Russia then simply had to urgently look for new markets, and we had them - the Chinese market! Where we built a railway, and in Manchuria a whole network of railways (CER), we built the largest trading port in the region (Dalny) and, in principle, it was for such trade that all this was started. It's just that Witte's grandmother was from the Rothschild family and acted in their interests... And he simply deceived the young Tsar.
Linking a currency to gold (a fixed gold content per unit of currency) will lead us to the same decoupling of the ruble exchange rate from the dollar.
But!
This is possible only within the framework of a comprehensive reform of the entire Financial System of the Russian Federation - the abolition of the Central Bank, the establishment of the State Bank of Russia under the full control of the Minister of Finance and the President, and the establishment of the State Treasury - as an issuing center and custodian of state reserves.
And no circulation of gold as a unit of payment. Just a measure/equivalent to the value of a currency. All .
Gold can be used or taken as collateral in case of shortages or distortions in foreign trade.
Today they want to do this with the new currency of the BRICS Bank for the convenience of mutual settlements among the countries participating in this financial market. But for this, the currencies of all participating countries must be tied to gold (price) and freely convertible for mutual settlements into the non-cash currency of the BRICS Bank. . . But this is precisely what will kill the dollar and euro as currencies of international payments. Not to death, but by a multiple or by an order of magnitude, reducing the volume of demand for them and their international turnover. And understanding this, as well as the fact that it cannot be done without it, some banks that are shareholders of the Fed have already become shareholders of the BRICS Bank. Those. spread some straw for yourself.
And that is why the world today smells of War.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

Tying a currency to gold does not at all mean a free exchange of currency for gold, it is the CONTENT OF GOLD IN CURRENCY. So it was with the Soviet Ruble

As far as I can understand, it was the same with the evergreen $ exactly before the “sabotage” that de Gaulle arranged for him, bringing in a plane and a ship loaded with this waste paper and demanding that it (the waste paper) be exchanged for real gold. This is exactly how gold backing works. At the same time, it does not at all exclude the scheme I described above - they print evergreens, buy rubles and exchange rubles for gold. They called it a little differently, but the ending was still the same. The same scheme can be applied to the hypothetical BRICS currency... And this, in my opinion, applies not only to gold, but also to any other security. Money backed by something material will always lose to the printing press, even if free exchange is possible in the current conditions.
Is it stupid to prohibit the exchange of one money for another? Exclusively money for provided goods-services-technology??? At a minimum, their “printing press” will be removed from this scheme. BUT then there must be parity in trade relations. You sold it at the drop of a hat, and you can buy it at stock. Any imbalance will come out sideways on one side or the other. To avoid such distortions, at the end of the year, “knock in the dough” and compensate one or the other side for the difference with the same, for example, gold?

...But this is exactly what will kill the dollar and the euro as currencies of international payments...

It seems to me that the dollar/euro pair has already been killed. Papers with portraits of dead presidents were secured by trust + military force. Who does not trust $ - “then we are sailing to you.” And a fraction of this “trust + strength” was projected onto the euro (there, however, it was to some extent ensured by commodity production). Trust has collapsed, they cannot confirm their strength (Ukraine, the Red Sea), industrial production has collapsed.

...And that is why the world smells of War today.

Unlikely. Only if there is a "black swan". And so? I very much doubt that “behind the puddle”, the people who actually make decisions are complete idiots. They realize that if we get involved with all their kagal, we will definitely begin to supply sources of heat and light, by S.K. delivery service. Shoigu. And definitely, neither China nor North Korea will remain aloof from this “celebration of life”. So either a “black swan” or some country, purely independently, acting outside the NATO bloc.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

as far as I can understand, it was the same with the evergreen $ exactly before the “sabotage” that de Gaulle arranged for him,

No, the Soviet ruble was not circulated abroad; even the export of rubles exceeding a certain amount was not allowed. For foreign trade there were transferable rubles, payments were made in them within the framework of the CMEA. For mutual settlements between Soviet enterprises there was a non-cash ruble. The USSR did not expand its currency abroad, and the amount of money in the economy approximately corresponded to the mass of goods produced.
With the dollar, it was completely different - at the end of the war, the United States forced the countries that signed the Bretton Woods agreement to deposit all their gold with the Fed, and in return they received paper dollars for its value for international payments and for the formation of the state. reserve De Gaulle simply forced the United States to return French gold for their paper.
What the BRICS are going to do is not the same as the dollar or the Soviet ruble. They want to tie the currencies of the participating countries to gold to fix their exchange rate and determine the exchange rate among themselves through the gold content. This way they will move away from the dollar as an equivalent for determining the exchange rate. And mutual settlements will be carried out through currency swaps - approximately as you described. Yes, Putin talked about this several times in previous years and implemented it through bilateral agreements for dollar-free trade. This happened with India, for example, with China.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

...And that is why the world smells of War today.

Unlikely. Only if there is a "black swan". And so?

Very likely. And precisely because of the loss of leadership. A parasite cannot live at its own expense, and even if the people of their countries do not want war, they will do as they want. Either by war or its threat they will regain leadership, or they will leave slamming the door so that no stone will be left unturned. They have been saying this for a long time, now the time has come. So prepare for the worst - they don’t know how to lose.
Rabid animals cannot be treated or tamed, only euthanasia by shooting from a distance and burning the corpse. We have a gun, rabies has been diagnosed. This year they will enter with their troops. This was not Macron's stupidity, but a voiced, agreed decision.
The experience of the St. Petersburg street will come in handy for us.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

For foreign trade there were transferable rubles, payments were made in them within the framework of the CMEA. For mutual settlements between Soviet enterprises there was a non-cash ruble. The USSR did not expand its currency abroad, and the amount of money in the economy approximately corresponded to the mass of goods produced.

As far as I can judge, this fully worked during the period of I.V. Stalin and for some time, by “inertia,” after his death. Then the Union “began to play” on the “field” of cheaters and according to their rules.
You yourself confirm that ANY Soviet ruble, be it transferable or non-cash, was BACKED by the goods produced, unlike the dollar. In a direct competition between production and the printing press, the printing press will win.
Well, the example of India as a dollar-free trading partner does not seem entirely acceptable to me. They are too cunning... And the level of their corruption, against the backdrop of a still caste society... China, although a “heavy” negotiator, seems to me to be more acceptable/adequate.

Quote: bayard

A parasite cannot live at its own expense, and even if the people of their countries do not want war, they will do as they want. Either by war or its threat they will regain leadership, or they will leave slamming the door so that no stone will be left unturned.

To leave “slamming the door,” you must have the “ability” to do so. I'm not sure they have one at the moment. I’ve already said that I’m not a lot of things, including not being an analyst. BUT, the constant talk on their part that “Russia will attack” in the period of 3-5 years did not come out of nowhere. Approximately this period of time (maybe longer) is needed for the development of relevant production facilities, without taking into account the accumulation of reserves (and I do not yet take into account their demographic problem). In addition, they, having tried to thoughtlessly change the type of economy, have removed even more complexity - they have baristas, they have lawyers, bloggers are coaches, but they don’t have welders, turners, engineers. Remember the construction of a nuclear power plant by the French in Finland. Remember how the USA modernized its submarines (there was no way to achieve airtight and high-quality welds). A submarine built (if I'm not mistaken) by Spain with negative buoyancy (truly underwater). The newest German submarines have navigation systems with the “Made in Russia” label. A very recent test launch of Trident from a British submarine (when it got scared of heights and decided to return, but missed). A massive missile strike on Syria (back in the Trump era) and its more than modest results. In addition, currently the Yankees (the main striking force of NATO) are “stretched” throughout the Globe. It’s burning everywhere, but they can’t put it out anywhere. Against such a background, get involved in a full-fledged fight with Russia? Given our ability to guarantee that we can hit especially protected objects (personal safety is under direct threat)? Here there will most likely be an attempt to “crawl away”, take a time out, for subsequent revenge.
Now, if the Northern Military District developed quickly, with military victories quickly obtained, then their society could consolidate, and they would be “scared.”

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

Either by war or its threat they will regain leadership, or they will leave slamming the door so that no stone will be left unturned

I apologize, this is a follow-up to the previous post - Nuland is leaving. It is not being replaced by a cupid angel at all, but by a similar one, only “thinner” and solving slightly different issues (the track record of the successor includes Georgia, the Saakashvili period (the war of 08.08.08) and Afghanistan, during the period of the most worthy evacuation). At the “hehemon”, after the “test”, they are seriously discussing the need to provide Trump with copies of secret documentation that is provided to the president (for now to Biden). Biden, in order not to lose his rating before the elections, will not make any sudden movements. BUT at the same time, the overwhelming majority of Western leaders already perceive him as an outsider, and act with an eye on Trump. Trump's position is well known.
Of course, Trump should not be considered a cure for all problems. This comrade is not our comrade at all and is subject to impulsive actions (massive missile strike on Syria, after his daughter’s story). Of course, the interests of the corporations that have gotten into Ukraine, don’t play around with it, will not go away (it is quite likely that the Yankees’ inexplicable persistence on the Ukraine issue is partly explained by the selfish interests of corporations). But they also don’t need a full-scale conflict with the risk of using nuclear weapons. They need a large market. You can't make much money in a cemetery. And plundering Europe, studded with radioactive craters, is somehow not very comfortable...

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

It is not being replaced by a cupid angel at all, but by a similar one, only “thinner” and solving slightly different issues (the track record of the successor includes Georgia, the Saakashvili period (the war of 08.08.08) and Afghanistan, during the period of the most worthy evacuation).

Let's see how this "angel" liquidator behaves. War is a path of deception; they can feign their own collapse and confusion in order to weaken our attention and achieve surprise. The year will be difficult. Very difficult.
The fact is that upon coming to power (if this happens) Trump will organize a grand purge of the United States from neocons and they know it. And they really want to avoid this... Another thing is that by removing, preventing or killing Trump, or again rigging the election results, they are guaranteed to get a Civil War of the most unbridled nature. They will not just be torn to pieces, they (the neocons and their servants) will simply be fed to dogs and pigs. Live.
That's why they are now in a swing - emotional and evaluative. If they surrender power according to an agreement and some guarantees, many may survive. If not, guaranteed plot number 1. . . That’s why they are now being torn apart - what to do.
But not so in Europe.
The people in power there are not just scumbags, but clinical and very stubborn idiots. And behind them stands a collapsing England, with their sick king and an elite with frostbitten reptilian brains. And these maniacs are driving a herd of European madmen to slaughter. And in this case, England is largely acting contrary to and to the detriment of the United States.
The United States needs to leave Europe, completely untie itself there, and fully concentrate on Southeast Asia. But England is dragging it into the conflict in Ukraine, into the Arab-Israeli conflict (it was England that prepared and orchestrated it), into the war with Iran... England is now tearing up and substituting the United States everywhere and in everything, in the hope of reviving the British Empire after their collapse and collapse.
This seems ridiculous, but knowing how skillfully the Brits control elites around the world, financial flows and secret societies (all Freemasons in the world are subordinate to the British monarch, they all swore allegiance to him upon initiation), such ambitions are not without certain prospects. They have the idea of ​​tearing the United States apart with a Civil War to the south and north, taking the liberal North for themselves along with Canada (which is already hers according to the constitution). Australia and New Zealand are also their territory + a bunch of archipelagos in the World Ocean. Control of the Arab monarchies (namely, the British crown installed all these kings) will provide them with energy resources. But in Europe they need chaos and war. And the division\fragmentation\death of Germany. France is already under their control.
This is who sows the Storm.
This is the true mortal enemy of the USA, Europe (all), the Arab World, Iran, Pakistan, India and China. I did not list Russia, because we are their enemy and target by definition.
And it would seem much easier to eliminate the cause.
Yes, at least together with the island...
Trump could do it.
And in Moscow (and most likely not only) the other day they are preparing a series of terrorist attacks and a rampage of Wahhabis under military psychotropics. Let's see if Sobyanin and the Russian Guard are ready for this.

[0x0]

Well, there’s no point in talking about Great Britain (from the word “great” - bicycle). Everything has long been said in one phrase - “the Englishwoman is shitting.” Something seems to me that even behind the events in Gaza, their “ears” are sticking out...
The movement in the EU is now very interesting. The following are fighting for leadership in the ruins of this public entity:
1. Germany (most likely dropped out due to the state of its elites, industry, dying infrastructure, lack of resources and migrants).
2. France (its real capabilities are not very clear against the backdrop of the “departure” from Africa, the same migrants and the fact that it is constantly dipped into a vat of feces by its unconventional partners. The same Mistrals, submarines for Australia, lack of resources and much more).
3. England (ambitions and traditions are clear, but the ability to implement? Against the backdrop of missing resources and degradation of both the elite (just remember Lizonka, who is Trass) and industry???).
4. Poland, which is “supported” by the USA, England and the Vatican. At the same time, Poland has its own energy resources - coal, a generally good state of industry, at least for now, and a fairly good demographic situation (a fairly homogeneous society, there is precisely a resource in the form of refugees/migrants from Ukraine, both current and future. But there is also traditional opposition from Germany.
5. And behind the scenes, the Vatican seems to be “standing above the fray” (why almost no one takes it into account, I don’t understand). Who really wants to restore/strengthen his influence. The abilities/capabilities of this organization cannot be ignored.
Problem "moving 5 bodies". The question is not really about my salary. And I don’t have access to the relevant information to evaluate the “layouts”. I think that so far the favorites in the “race” are the shaved ones, Poland and the Vatican.

According to the Yankees, BEFORE the elections at home, it is doubtful that they will do anything “drastic”. The “Trump will be killed” plot is very likely. Because his coming to power means, for many of the current elites, extremely unpleasant consequences. BUT its physical elimination can also provoke SUCH an explosion that it would be better not to.
In general, they now have very interesting situations inside the country - both before and after the elections, there will be a lot of very dissatisfied citizens and non-citizens. There will definitely be local “movements”. Will it lead to significant movement? Question. Very much, at least from my point of view, similar to the Union before its collapse (although it would be better not to).
Getting into a fight with Russia in SUCH a situation? Falling industry, lack of labor resources, dying infrastructure, disunited population... And we haven’t mentioned China yet.
Yes, the Britons can push France as the owner of nuclear weapons. BUT, when using conventional weapons, France is in an obviously losing situation - lack of common borders, stretched logistics, low combat potential of ground units, low level of stocks of combat-ready equipment. In fact, no significant changes should occur. Except that we will strike targets on French territory, which, among other things, will cause an immediate social explosion. When using nuclear weapons, I agree, they can hurt us. But France itself, in this situation, will cease to exist.
It is obvious that some very unpleasant events could happen on our territory now. They will try to spoil things. May God (even the one in whom I do not believe) give strength, skills and luck to our special services.

PySy: it looks like you missed my previous post.
Question - aren't you tired? If “yes”, then I will be understanding.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Question - aren't you tired? If “yes”, then I will be understanding.

Not at all, the exchange of opinions is very interesting.
After these recommendations from the Foreign Ministries of European countries and the United States to their citizens in the Russian Federation to leave the country due to the imminent rampage of “terrorism and extremism” and Macron’s “sudden” proposal to send troops in, it seems like such a plan of events on their part. In Moscow and large cities of Russia, pogroms by migrants of the indigenous population begin with shooting and stabbing, and with an increase in the geography and number of the Wahhabi population involved. I really hope that it will pass, but it was too long and carefully prepared, and the demarche with essentially an ultimatum and a declaration of a terrorist war is too loud and demonstrative.
So, a crazy terrorist war is unfolding in Moscow and major cities right on the eve of the elections. As a result, elections are either disrupted (there is a state of emergency or martial law), or postponed, or cancelled. The West declares Putin illegitimate.
At the same time, large forces of the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the FSB, the National Guard and parts of the RF Armed Forces are being deployed to suppress migrant riots and pogroms. And this ties our hands on the outer contour and the ability to advance in the Northeast Military District.
Taking advantage of the moment and the distraction of the forces of the Ministry of Defense and the National Guard to suppress the rebellion, NATO countries ... are sending their troops into the western regions of the used one and replacing Ukrainian troops on the western and northern border and in parts of the internal regions. All the released forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces go to the front and try to turn the situation around.
Russia, bound by an internal conflict, will not be able to accept the challenge (their calculation) and begin to destroy NATO troops in/on and will simply hold back the pressure of the emboldened Ukrainian Armed Forces. They are unlikely to face success with a new counter-offensive (and they have already announced it, and perhaps this is precisely what they are counting on), but... after the migrant pogroms, Russia’s negotiating positions are sharply sagging and... they will try to persuade it to that same truce on the LBS. For those very 3-5 years they need.
Moreover, Wahhabi pogroms in Moscow and other cities can spoil our relations with the monarchies of the Gulf and with the Islamic World in general. For the suppression of rebellions will definitely not be bloodless. And this will also make it easier for England to separate the Gulf monarchies from Russia.
And yes, in Gaza the provocation with pogroms and hostage-taking was prepared by the British - MI6 at their bases in Cyprus.
Therefore, I am waiting with considerable anxiety to see what these scoundrels have prepared for Moscow and all of Russia...
And how competent our competent authorities will be... But it seems like the number of the Russian Guard has been increased to 730 thousand bayonets. It would be better for a summer campaign (control and cleansing of liberated territories), but for restoring order in Moscow and Co. together with some units of the RF Ministry of Defense, it may be enough. With proper organization and the right political decisions.
And France is simply “the British sword in Europe.” For France is controlled by the Rothschilds and the notorious “Masonic discipline”. Their task is incitement and insurance with nuclear potential.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

Not at all, the exchange of opinions is very interesting.
After these recommendations from the Foreign Ministries of European countries and the United States to their citizens in the Russian Federation to leave the country due to the imminent rampage of “terrorism and extremism” and Macron’s “sudden” proposal to send troops in, it seems like such a plan of events on their part. In Moscow and large cities of Russia, pogroms by migrants of the indigenous population begin with shooting and stabbing, and with an increase in the geography and number of the Wahhabi population involved.

I repeat - my opinion, the opinion of an armchair analyst and expert. I'm not trying to claim anything more.
According to Emmanuel, as far as I can understand, in his country, at the moment, things are “burning” quite fiercely. With the prospect of further development of the situation. To enter, alone or in company with someone in the spirit of the “Baltic Tigers”, acting outside NATO, into a direct clash with Russia, against the backdrop of the inability to stay in African countries (despite the urgent, precisely vital need for France), in addition however, in a region that is extremely inconvenient for France, from a logistics point of view, this, it seems to me, is not just madness, but something more. But to “crow”, to distract attention and to demonstrate taking the position of leader in the EU, yes. Although, all the same, such statements by a politician of this rank cannot be ignored by S.K.’s department. Shoigu. To avoid.
Regarding the possible riots of migrants, it seems to me that the problem is greatly exaggerated. Moreover (my opinion), it was pumped up artificially, at the instigation of the West, and precisely on the eve of the elections. Apparently hoping to provoke clashes. Unfortunately, the topic was “picked up” by many media outlets, deputies, and high-ranking officials. But the media are silent about possible problems from immigrants from Ukraine. Although the threat (I repeat, my opinion only) is more than real here.
And also, how can the actions of migrant workers affect the legitimacy of the presidential elections in Russia? Moreover, if something like this happens, both society and the security forces are quite aggressive. Migrants and their communities clearly do not need such a development of events. And so they now have a lot of complications. Rake out the cradle and then tighten the nuts??? Although this does not exclude local exacerbations.
Statements by the Foreign Ministry of Western countries are another attempt to escalate the situation. It seems to me that they made a fatal mistake in assessing the state of our society based on the opinions of such “experts” as, for example, Latynina, or the editorial staff of Dozhd (foreign agents, of course). Only one thing can be said about them - “they are terribly far from the people.”

Quote: bayard

The West declares Putin illegitimate.

))) They ALREADY declared Putin illegitimate. They have ALREADY stated that they do not recognize the results of our elections. By and large - what does it matter to us? They can also deny the law of universal gravitation. This will not help them start fluttering like butterflies.

Quote: bayard

And this will also make it easier for England to separate the Gulf monarchies from Russia.

The Gulf monarchies are currently concerned about slightly different issues: diversification of the economy, withdrawal of accumulated funds from Western jurisdiction, security of their own territory, search for their place in the “new world” (and it is not reasonable to deny the fact that it is ALREADY being updated), stability in market. At the same time, they “by default” recognize that Russia, on its territory, is in “its own right.” Of course, we reciprocally recognize their right in relation to their territories.
The rapprochement of these monarchies with England, at present? They're not idiots. They see what is happening with Russian assets. They see how the Naglitans act with their allies and, in contrast, Russia’s actions both in relation to its allies and in relation to the concluded treaties/agreements reached. Even if not official.
Well, the West’s capabilities in ensuring security are clearly observed now, in the Red Sea, and were observed earlier, during attacks on the territory of Saudi Arabia.

[bayard]

And yet, I consider the threat of a Wahhabi migrant revolt in Russian cities to be not just a real threat, but a very serious one. And this is exactly what the Anglo-Saxons relied on. And by plunging the Russian Federation into the abyss of these riots, they expect to weaken us on the fronts of the Northern Military District and, under this noise and the connection of Russia by suppressing these riots, they will send troops into the used area. Not for fighting with us, but to free all the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the western, northern and internal regions of the used one. . . And under these conditions, impose a “truce” on Russia on its own terms. And if you are very lucky (depending on the degree of chaos in Russia), then inflict a military defeat on it in the Northern Military District.
And Macron was only appointed as a talking head to voice such plans.
Therefore, all hope is for timely and decisive actions of the FSB, the Ministry of Internal Affairs, the Investigative Committee and the Russian Guard. And to the competent and conscientious (!) actions of local authorities, who have been so diligent in corrupting migrant communities in recent years.
And before the monarchs of the Gulf, MI6 and British diplomats will shake the “mass murders of Muslims in Russia” and compromising evidence on the origins of these monarchical families. After all, it was the British who at one time selected and installed them. With the economy, finances and armed forces, the English, of course, have no ice at all, but in terms of intelligence and control of the elites in the world, they are still very strong.
If the Wahhabi revolt can be prevented or stopped, then nothing will save the Ukrainian Armed Forces this year.
It is necessary to deport all unreliable and disloyal migrant population, including those who illegally acquired citizenship in the last 10 years.
And for those who remain in their underground mosques with mullahs from MI6, send the right mentors from the same Chechnya who have passed the SVO. Under the control of the FSB and the Investigative Committee. .. This is if some part of the labor migrants still decide to leave in Russia. But I would prefer not to leave any of the newcomers.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

And yet, I consider the threat of a Wahhabi migrant revolt in Russian cities to be not just a real threat, but a very serious one

You should not underestimate ANY threats, BUT, if you wanted to try to disrupt the presidential election, you should have started a little earlier. At least 10-15 days in advance to have time to “stir up” the situation.
By the way, the EC seems to have ALREADY recognized Navalnaya as the Russian president in exile... Sick ki. )))

Quote: bayard

they will send troops into used areas. Not for fighting with us, but to free all the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces from the western, northern and internal regions of the used one. . .

Very likely. Moreover, with the motto “we are not at war with the Russians” and, indeed, avoiding direct conflict. The only question is - WHAT will happen in France when coffins filled with active military personnel arrive in a stream? And they will go. With the exception of one situation - if, against the backdrop of bellicose rhetoric and loud slogans, they slowly, behind the scenes, come to an agreement with us, and carry out the introduction precisely in agreement with us. That is, actually dismembering Ukraine.
The only thing is that they, especially the Poles, will be able to consider this their victory. Does it suit us? I don't know. Not enough information. And there are too many factors to consider. This scenario has one more significant drawback - there are no free territories suitable for living on the Globe. Give them THIS piece? And another minus is the UGS (underground gas storage facilities) built on that territory by the Union. To separate the EU energy sector from Russia, it is these UGS facilities, or rather the volumes available for filling, that are extremely necessary.
By the way, France began retraining its troops for operations in conditions of intense conflict, with an enemy possessing comparable (neighing) firepower to the French. Initial readiness is expected by 2027. Oh well…

Quote: bayard

And before the monarchs of the Gulf

Representatives of Russia, Iran and the Taliban are officially invited to the upcoming arms exhibition in Qatar (it seems like we still have a banned organization. Which doesn’t stop us from interacting with them)

Quote: bayard

I would prefer not to leave any of the newcomers.

Quite a difficult question. It is doubtful that it will be possible to completely abandon the use of migrant labor. Yes, and this is not such an evil. The problem is the compact living of their large communities. We need to fight such enclaves.
What about migrants? Well, in my city there is a very large enterprise on a national scale, where there is a lot of low-skilled work with very low pay. The issue was resolved quite competently: in agreement with all departments/services (of course, with the execution of the entire package of documents), a “batch” of migrants (most often from Vietnam) is brought in, who settle directly on the strictly guarded territory of the enterprise in a comfortable dormitory. Everything is provided locally. Once a week, several “delegates”, accompanied by an interpreter and security officers, are taken to the city by company transport to buy something not included in the supply, do some “exercise” and you’re done. When their period of stay in Russia expires or their contract ends/interrupts, they are deported in an equally organized manner. Here, many townspeople don’t even know about the presence of so many people from Asia in the city.
So what is needed is not a total ban, but competent legislation, control over compliance and organization.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

You should not underestimate ANY threats, BUT, if you wanted to try to disrupt the presidential election, you should have started a little earlier. At least 10-15 days in advance to have time to “stir up” the situation.

Perhaps the plans include not only the disruption of the elections itself (this will not change anything, the president will remain in office even in the event of a state of emergency or even the introduction of martial law), but namely the terrorist attacks themselves in crowded places. At the same polling stations, just interrupt the election agenda with terrorist attacks with reports with a lot of blood/corpses/victims... This is an attempt to get into the head of the enemy. The fact is that the French continue to put pressure on the introduction, and the hysteria of an “inevitable war” is spreading in NATO. This could be taken as an attempt to frighten\put pressure on Russia to disrupt the offensive (major) and, under the guise of unrest in Russia, introduce contingents into\on. Let me remind you that back in 2014 they had plans to send troops to the Right Bank if the Russian Federation entered the used one and divide the former Ukrainian SSR along the Dnieper. I think that this is exactly the scenario that is meant now.
What else would I like to say... Synchronization of plans announced before. So the Ukrainian Armed Forces' aviation is promised by the summer... and the deployment of troops also for this period. It is clear that at the controls of those same 160 - 240 fighters (and attack aircraft? A-10?) there will be no Sumerians. And aviation at its bases must be covered VERY well. And to ensure its operation, AWACS aircraft are needed. The appearance of the actual NATO grouping - ground + air defense - is not particularly scary, but quite a large number of combat aircraft with AWACS aircraft is already serious. And you need to prepare for exactly this. Specially prepare for the destruction of AWACS aircraft by specially designated groups of fighters (including the 5th generation, because only they will be able to get close to the distance of an R-37M salvo). Apparently by equalizing forces and capabilities in aviation and freeing up the forces of the Ukrainian Armed Forces for the front, they will try to stabilize the front at least along the Dnieper line.
But if they suddenly succeed in stirring up a terrorist war in Russia itself, they are counting on more serious results...
They are taking a lot of risks, but this is their last chance.
If we take all of Ukraine, without “disgusting agreements,” then NATO will have to retreat to the borders of 1945. Europe is not even capable of fighting with us all together. Even conventionally. And such a new/old border will be optimal for both them and us.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

from Vietnam), who settle directly on the strictly guarded territory of the enterprise in a comfortable dormitory. Everything is provided locally.

I think this kind of organization of migrant labor would be optimal for us.
But!
It is necessary to stop importing Wahhabis from Central Asia. And all those imported and even those who received passports should be deported. If they are left somewhere, then PROHIBIT them from having their own mullahs (this is usually a creature of MI6), but oblige them to listen to mentors from Chechnya, who, in turn, are recruited and trained from the special forces of the Russian Guard.
And only so .
The Vietnamese and North Koreans are much preferable in this capacity, because they are disciplined and have never been Wahhabis under the strict guidance of MI6.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

Perhaps the plans include not only/not so much the disruption of the elections (this will not change anything, the president will remain in office even in the event of a state of emergency or even the introduction of martial law), but namely the terrorist attacks themselves in crowded places

To be honest, I expected them to be significantly more active in this area. Here I bow to our special services and, oddly enough, to the fact that their regime has to act with an eye to the West. And there, outright terrorism is not very approved. They position Ukraine in general and the Ukrainian Armed Forces in particular as some kind of “soldiers of good.” “Image is nothing. Thirst is everything!”, this is not about them. For them, image comes first.
A sharp complication of the situation in Russia, especially before and during the elections, or even disruption of elections in some regions, would have an excellent PR effect for them. They are simply “sharpened” for the show!!! And the head, albeit nominally, of this unhealthy circus is the buffoon. They were preparing a fairly loud action in the border areas of the Belgorod region. Today, ours, in the adjacent territory, only destroyed 5 tanks, 3 self-propelled guns, 1 MLRS, several pickup trucks and infantry fighting vehicles. If they had succeeded in this campaign, the “WOW” effect would have been guaranteed. Although there is no point in something like this... Although it is painful...

Quote: bayard

So the Ukrainian Armed Forces’ aviation is promised by the summer...

I’m even embarrassed to ask – WHERE will it be based/serviced??? On the territory of Ukraine, which is shot through and through? On the territory of another country? But the takeoff of an airplane to attack us from any airfield outside Ukraine means only one thing - this country has entered into a war with us. Moreover, I emphasize, it was during a war, not a special operation!
By the way, NATO AWACS (and not only) aircraft are actively used by them. Moreover, they are in Polish airspace, or in international space over the Black Sea. By the way, Emmanuelle’s hysteria could have been partly provoked by us. It was during that period (his first statements), our ground-based air defense officers took on “escort” a French AWACS aircraft, located in international space over the Black Sea, near Crimea, contacted it, and in very incorrect terms (assessment of the Western side .. For some reason I believe them)) they conveyed a simple idea to the paddling pools - if they don’t immediately shoot down, they will be shot down. And about the “international space”, they can tell the fish while they are drowning. If they make it to the water. They left.

Wahhabis? I repeat - without downplaying the potential threat, BUT it seems to me that this problem has ALREADY been stopped. A certain, relatively small, fairly controlled “exhaust”, with a certain degree of reliability, is left, rather to identify those who are inclined/sympathetic.
The problem of compact living of significant groups formed along ethnic lines has been somewhat overlooked.

Quote: bayard

If we take all of Ukraine, without “disgusting agreements,” then NATO will have to retreat back to the 1945 borders.

So they are ALREADY “backing away.” Remember where the border between NATO and the Warsaw Pact was? If you look at the physical map, then just such a distinction becomes obvious: one flank is the Baltic Sea, the other is the Carpathians, with continuation from other mountain ranges, right up to the Mediterranean. The relatively narrow “corridor” needs to be seriously defended. Everything that is brought forward will be guaranteed to be destroyed/captured by the enemy. WHERE are they starting to take hold now? From the junction of the Suwalki “corridor” with the Baltic Sea, in the direction of the Carpathians. Moreover, in the previously announced plans of the Polish military, in the event of a hypothetical attack from Russia, long-term defense of the right bank of the Vistula is not provided for from the word “absolutely” (they had a big scandal). Which also fits exactly into this scheme.
...Centuries pass, and the troops move along the same routes... And the Mazowieckie swamps have also been bypassed for centuries... So, just thoughts...

And yet - let's assume that some especially “gifted” did introduce their military group into the territory of Ukraine, with a categorical attitude not to engage in clashes with the Russian army. Yes, a mass of Ukrainian troops deployed to guard and cover the Ukrainian-Belarusian border area may be freed up. They, of course, are transferred to the combat area, where they come up against our previously prepared defensive lines (“Surovikin line”) And now, let’s imagine that we, without even striking the interventionists, begin to advance our troops from Belarus. Otherwise the Belarusians themselves will go. And WHAT will he do??? What is the point of their presence in the region?
It turns out to be quite a “funny” picture. Here, or they will enter into direct conflict with us, and this is precisely a war, not a military defense. With attacks specifically on THEIR countries, with attacks on the ENTIRE supply chain. Can you imagine the reaction of THEIR population?! Or it’s stupid to watch how our units move FREELY through the territory liberated by them from the Ukrainian Armed Forces, cut off communications, take control of ALL borders and go to the rear of almost the ENTIRE army of Ukraine... oops...

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

To be honest, I expected them to be significantly more active in this area. Here I bow to our special services

Yes, judging by indirect signs, the special services really worked, but we’ll see how the next couple of weeks go. For if they (the Anglo-Saxons) go on a rampage, then they have the right to expect real chaos from us. For example, explosions of underwater volcanoes off their (England and the USA) coasts. Natural elements, what can you take from it...

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

I’m even embarrassed to ask – WHERE will it be based/serviced???

But this is a question of questions. The option of taking off in Poland and Romania with a jump (refueling, armament) from Sumerian airfields and back for service... most likely will not work. But to launch both a ground force and aviation with air defense under the guise of unrest in Moscow and Russia... perhaps they are counting on this chance. If the bacchanalia does not work out, then things will go completely sour for them. And it is unknown how the Biden administration will behave. If they get frostbite, they are unlikely to dare alone... although the common sense of these scumbags is no longer believable - this is some kind of formal suicide club.
But they have a passionate desire to enter the Right Bank and from this position begin negotiations on the division of second-hand land... But we don’t need this for nothing. .. But they can raise a universal howl about their own “peacekeeping corps” saving Ukraine... Therefore, depending on the weather, it is necessary to enter the Right Bank from the North. Those. reincarnation of the Kyiv operation. But already with sufficient strength and a group of 300-500 thousand, just to be sure. But such forces already exist. If you count together with the Russian Guard, which, according to rumors, already numbers 730 thousand. If 400 thousand from the Russian Guard will be for clearing and controlling the liberated territories (in all directions), then with them in the North Military District zone it is already possible to collect about 1,5 million bayonets. It's enough .
Can you imagine what will happen if an attack comes on them from the north again? With access through Sumy and Chernigov to Kyiv? After all, they will pull all their reserves there. . And then it will be possible to blockade Kharkov from the south and... carry out an offensive operation in the Kherson, Nikolaev and dare I say it, Odessa region. And they will have to burst with the last reserves on all fronts.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

...Centuries pass, and the troops move along the same routes... And the Mazowieckie swamps are also bypassed for centuries...

I immediately remembered the meeting between the cadets and the division commander, who, during the Belarusian operation, advanced through those swamps with the entire division on wet shoes... I hooked him with questions about this, and he told us such details...
In general, we can also cross the swamps if necessary.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

let's assume that some especially “gifted” people brought their military group into the territory of Ukraine

They are now gifted beyond measure...beyond all measure.
I think all this year we will be balancing on the brink of a global conflict. We simply have no other option for our own security. Only Active Defense.
And they, losing face and status, will fight in hysterics and show how terrible they are.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

our ground-based air defense officers took on “escort” a French AWACS aircraft, which was in international space over the Black Sea, near Crimea, got in touch with it, and in very incorrect terms (an assessment from the Western side. For some reason I believe them)) brought it to paddling pools have a simple idea - if they don’t knock them down immediately, they will be shot down. And about the “international space”, they can tell the fish while they are drowning.

I didn’t know such details, but I can imagine very well how it happened, because I myself previously carried out combat duties at a large command post as an officer in the combat command of an air defense formation. I'm glad that ours are becoming so radical. And the Global Hawks just need to be shot down.

[0x0]

I'm sorry, I was in real life.

Quote: bayard

he himself previously carried out combat duty at a large command post as a combat command officer of an air defense formation

Didn’t you fly yourself and didn’t let others do it? )))
All jokes aside, this is a very serious position. At least in terms of the level of decisions made. For me, if it’s just a VUS - a driver, a driver is an electrician, on an urgent basis. Of course, I flew as a passenger, and quite a lot. Just how many times I’ve landed in a plane/helicopter – I can count it on my fingers. Most often, I went out for a walk along the road))) Then the biography went to the Ministry of Internal Affairs, which was more interesting. I walked on the “ground” all the time. A significant part of the service is in places of ethnic conflicts and hostilities. Which, after the collapse of the Union, was quite enough. There is something to remember. However, how can I forget.

Quote: bayard

I didn’t know such details, but I can imagine very well how it happened...
...I'm glad that our people are becoming so radical. And the Global Hawks just need to be shot down.

It is curious that our people are as silent as a fish on ice about such very significant events. I found out from the French segment of the Web, and it was confirmed in the English segment. On our part, only indirect, BUT very significant - we did not raise interceptors to intercept and escort this aircraft. That is, the threat of using air defense systems was quite real. This was done after another attack on the Black Sea Fleet, which was definitely supported by a British aircraft hanging out in the area. It looks like they decided that they’d stop playing giveaway.
I don’t rule out that this could have provoked Manya’s hysteria. Sort of like the “last straw”. France is already VERY painfully worried about the fact that the Russians kicked them out of Africa. They perceive this at the level of “Berezina” - national humiliation. For some reason they don’t talk about this in our media/Network. But for them it is really humiliating and dangerous. They have not yet found a replacement for uranium supplies. There are still reserves, it’s difficult to estimate, but there will be enough for a year or a year and a half, maybe a little more, taking into account the reprocessing of spent nuclear fuel. So what is next? Bow to the Russians?!

Quote: bayard

During the Belarusian operation, the entire division advanced on wet shoes through those swamps...
...In general, we can also cross the swamps if necessary.

My grandfather lies somewhere in those parts, in former East Prussia, now Poland.
Now, through the swamps, with the current means of aerospace reconnaissance, the same drones and the ability to stick autonomous cameras with IR lenses, it is unlikely... At least in significant quantities.

Quote: bayard

They are now gifted beyond measure...beyond all measure.

I don't agree. Not only did they not support Emmanuelle’s hysteria, they not only began to disown him, but they also rather rudely asked him to “keep an eye on the market” (Stoltenberg)
By the way, the same Scholz, who is definitely, very firmly “held by the bells,” from the very beginning, despite his rhetoric, is constantly “lodging” on the issue of supporting Ukraine. He talks a lot, but he does... In the second half of 2023, there was a story that was not noticed in our media, when even the Ukrainian Armed Forces refused to accept the Leopards handed over to them, due to their complete unsuitability for use.
Returning to our sheep, or rather toad-eaters, I estimated that the size of the French army is 203-245 thousand (including the reserve (the National Guard as such) and the gendarmerie). Immediately after Manyu’s bellicose statement, within 3 days, more than 5 people submitted reports of dismissal. Sorry, I didn’t monitor further, but I think the trend continued. Especially against the backdrop of his ongoing hysteria. (By the way, since the beginning of the Northern Military District, this trend has been in the armies of all NATO member countries, the most striking in the USA, Germany, Poland and the armies of new participants.) The armed forces of the proud, military superpowers - the Baltic extinctions - were not taken into account. Because it's not even funny. Especially considering their geographical location. Against the background of these figures, how many forces and resources can France allocate for an expeditionary force on the territory of Ukraine? And if we take into account the internal situation??? And considering the refusal of support from their NATO allies?! It really looks like some kind of nonsense... Calculating the likely actions of a madman? BUT he is not the only one who makes decisions. It seems somehow doubtful that if Manyu waves his cocked hat, extends his hand forward and commands - Forward, my brave warriors! They will pull up their pants, put on their slippers and march in orderly columns. The word “Berezina” is firmly entrenched in the French language and consciousness, it is an absolute analogue of our “complete ...” well, tryndets in general, only in an obscene form. The choral response is very likely “oh well...”, or “yeah, lucky”...

Regarding our further actions, what’s the point in accelerating? If the situation, both internal and external, allows, then, by and large, we should be quite satisfied with the current state of affairs. Denazification is taking place directly across the territory of BU. It can be carried out in different ways - either to convince or to destroy. Now they themselves gather in crowds, put on a uniform - in short, they make every effort for simple and reliable identification. There is no need to carry out complex activities to identify and prove. The other part, which does not have a good attitude towards Russia, leaves the territory on its own. Western economies are depleted. Their military potential is being depleted without a direct confrontation. They are gradually being overcome by a serious political crisis, with a very likely subsequent change in the ruling elites. Moreover, the longer events last, the worse they become.
We have? Quite optimistic, at least from my couch. I won’t say it’s ideal, but it’s not an ass at all. Please note - apparently, there is a significant accumulation of stocks of toys such as "Caliber". Or the same “Geraniums”. It is absolutely obvious that orders of magnitude more of these products are produced than are consumed. The accumulation clearly exceeds even the theoretical needs in Ukraine. The economy is positive. With finances - just the abolition of the “budget rule” (when a significant part of the proceeds from the sale of our resources remained in their banks) brought us SUCH money!!! And we didn't do it. They forbade themselves from using our money))) Those who previously used Russia as a means of earning money and planned their lives there are reconsidering their views. Pay attention - HOW MANY elite golf clubs are being built in Russia now, using private funds... This is obvious and noticeable.
The sad thing is the fleet. Although here's how you look at it. Events in the Red Sea also indicate that a surface ship, even at a distance of 200-300 km. from an unfriendly shore - this is a healthy, low-maneuverable target, which, with some persistence, will sooner or later “fly”. Although I still don’t understand WHY ours don’t use the “Know-how” of the Russian-Japanese - anti-mine networks (torpedoes were then called self-propelled mines)??? Still, detonating a byaki, at a distance of several meters from the side, is not the same as detonating with direct contact... But here the Navy leadership seems to have been hit on the head... We'll see.
So as not to end on a sad note - the leadership of Ukraine really is not fighting, but a show... WHAT kind of idiot do you have to be to know that the group you have assembled, near the borders of the Bryansk region, has been identified, it is being hit by fire, and still just abandon it? stupidly for slaughter?! Although the videos posted on the Internet are beautiful. The media was definitely prepared well in advance. The truth has been confused a little, with convincingness - where there is snow, where there is not. The EU flag for some reason... But these are trifles.
Once again I apologize for the delay in response.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Didn’t you fly yourself and didn’t let others do it?

This is of course our motto, but to be honest, we also flew - our air defense division included a MiG-25 fighter regiment and a Mi-24 squadron (to intercept targets like Rust). By the way, helicopters helped us a lot.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

It looks like they decided that they’d stop playing giveaway.

After the loss of another ship, this is quite logical. After the publication of a conversation between German generals, the direct participation of NATO countries in striking Russia has been proven and it is necessary to bring down all their reconnaissance UAVs, and, if necessary, all reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

How much force and resources can France allocate for the expeditionary force on the territory of Ukraine?

I think that the brigade may well be allocated. And they will introduce it to the Odessa region, from Romania. The deployment of this brigade was possible in the summer-autumn of 2022. Now, when there is again a threat of an offensive by the Russian Armed Forces on/in the Right Bank, they will most likely introduce it there. To free up the Odessa group for the front. Most likely they will come in with the Romanians. Autumn. 2022 there was a lot of Romanian speech on the air in the Kharkov and Lugansk direction. Just like Polish. And English. In total, the foreign contingent then amounted to approximately 50 thousand snouts. So this is not the first time for them.
The British will also most likely bring in their own contingent, but not a regular army, but a PMC.
But now our group is almost an order of magnitude larger and more powerful, and their consolidated corps will give us two or three bites. But the introduction of an aviation group and fresh air defense systems could spoil the blood. But who will play with conventional toys with them?
So we don’t have time to leisurely play on second-hand ones in SVO. It is advisable to finish everything by the end of this year. Used throughout the territory.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The economy is positive. With finances, the only thing is the abolition of the “budget rule”

In addition to the budget rule, which gives us from 100 to 200 billion dollars annually to the budget. there are other sources. The same arrest of payments on loans to Western banks in the amount of 500 to 700 billion dollars. with their accumulation in savings accounts, they also provide a very strong investment potential. Well, and the arrest of the assets of Western companies and the use of all profits from them (Rusal alone will give how much to the budget). Plus the possible seizure of the assets of a business disloyal to Russia with offshore registration.
In the first two months of this year, economic growth was recorded at 4,5%. It's not bad .

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

WHY don’t ours use the “Know-how” of the Russian-Japanese - mine action networks

Probably because our Black Sea Fleet ships... are small, and their hulls are not suitable for attaching such equipment. But booms must be installed. Only these booms should rise above the water like a fence, because at the water level these booms will simply jump over. Already jumped over.
Heavy or medium-class UAVs with OLS (with a good thermal imaging channel) and ATGMs on suspensions. I discovered it and was immediately amazed. And in two or three echelons (security line) patrol over the waters around Crimea.
Communication\control of them through repeaters\ry, or a satellite dish on each. If satellite communications are insufficient/unreliable/does not provide complete and constant coverage, installing antennas for STARLINK terminals is simple and straightforward. They are working over the Black Sea. And we will have reliable protection from BEC.
Well, there are more machine guns on the sides of each ship.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

This is of course our motto, but to be honest, we also flew - our air defense division included a fighter regiment

))) it was a joke. I know. The same MIG-31 (a logical continuation of the 25s), primarily air defense, everything else is a “bonus”.
??? I didn't know about the turntables. True, I wasn’t interested. Although it is very logical. It seems to me that such a platform (helicopter), at least as a temporary measure, can also be used to combat UAVs. Just add, if necessary, detection equipment with a decent range, including at night, and more machine guns, “infantry” calibers (there’s no need for large calibers there), with the ability to fire not only along the course. Of course, the shooters will be imprisoned. Maybe even a spotlight on each side.

Quote: bayard

it is necessary to bring down all their reconnaissance UAVs, and, if necessary, all reconnaissance aircraft over the Black Sea

As far as I can judge, after the fall of a drone “pissed on” by fighters, devices of this type are staying significantly further from our borders. I hope that after the splashing pool is scared away, manned vehicles will also stay away. Shooting down manned aircraft, I think at the moment, is somewhat radical. We need new international agreements, taking into account changes in reconnaissance and destruction means.

Quote: bayard

the brigade may well be allocated. And they will introduce it to the Odessa region, from Romania

Today there was an interview between Putin and Kiselyov, where he directly said that we will consider Americans as interventionists on our territory, including Ukraine. I didn’t name the French, but I think the hint is quite clear. They are no worse than the Americans and there is already a French cemetery in that region (Sevastopol). HOW long will that brigade last? The number, according to the “ceiling,” is 8 thousand. Moreover, for us, as a target, they will clearly occupy priority positions. HOW will society in France react?

Quote: bayard

The British will also most likely bring in their own contingent, but not a regular army, but a PMC.

PMCs against regular troops? Besides, not shy about using ALL means of destruction??? I would love to see a report on the financial activities of such a company.
By the way, in the first half of 2023, in Western countries, they actively tried to recruit retired pilots who flew the F-16, specifically into a certain PMC. They offered VERY good money, but somehow it didn’t work out. I don't know the reason. Either they didn’t dare because of our possible reaction, or it turned out that the former flyers don’t only eat porridge with their heads.

Quote: bayard

The introduction of an aviation group and fresh air defense systems could spoil the blood. But who will play with conventional toys with them?

If actions are limited specifically to the territory of Ukraine, then there will be only conventional “toys”. They will not be able to introduce a significant group. Even due to limited logistics. And for us, this will be another opportunity to practice on the “hamsters”, to practice interaction and reaction in anticipation of the still probable direct collision.

Quote: bayard

So we don’t have time to leisurely play on second-hand ones in SVO. It is advisable to finish everything by the end of this year. Used throughout the territory.

Don't know. There are too many factors that need to be taken into account, but to which there is no public access. As for me, there is no need to rush at all. The main task is to minimize our losses. With any intensification, losses will increase. As we move towards the western borders, logistics will become more complicated. And significantly. Therefore, I think that it will be necessary to move forward when the other side has exhausted its ability to seriously resist. Perhaps when the West “merges” the other side. Precisely in order to emphasize to the ENTIRE world their Western, outright foolishness towards all their supporters. It is moral to “kill” them.
And as for the “entire territory” - I think that it is beneficial for us to leave something called Ukraine (of course, under our military control). Even so that there is a place where the completely castrated can be sent. It is desirable that this “Ukraine” be completely isolated from the borders with Western countries and from the sea.

Quote: bayard

In addition to the budget rule

I said about the “budget rule” only because it was THEIR decision, which brought us colossal money. Well, because it is absolutely clear. And so, the list is very large. Which, among other things, has significantly increased the traffic of transit cargo on Russian Railways.

Quote: bayard

In the first two months of this year, economic growth was recorded at 4,5%. It's not bad .

))))))))) Modestly, “this is not bad”)))))))))))))) Really smiled)))) I don’t think we have the capabilities for a breakthrough like this "Stalin's miracle." Besides, by and large there is no such need.

Quote: bayard

Probably because our Black Sea Fleet ships... are small, and their hulls are not suitable for attaching such equipment. .

It seems to me that something else “played” here. Such products can significantly “spoil” the appearance. Namely, in the Navy, the leadership is traditionally distinguished by its penchant for a certain “aesthetics”. Especially considering the fact that the large landing craft cannot be called “small”.
Of course, booms need to be installed and modified. Maybe not even something “sticking out” above the water, but “stretched” over some area, over the surface. Maybe even with mines “suspended” from a conventional “grid”. It can anchor buoys, between which, partially in the air, stretch ordinary fishing nets with suspended mines. And patrol drones, including those with weapons, are needed. First of all, you need something that can be done “here and now,” even if it’s “on your knees.” There were rumors that, as a kind of “ersatz KAZ”, MONKS were hung on the sides of some ships.
Machine guns of relatively small calibers will not solve the problem. Because they will be able to resist a fairly “tenacious” threat, where the issue of resisting machine-gun fire can be resolved by simply adding extra armor to the critical units. This is not a “flying” UAV, where the issue of mass is critical. And quickly “pick” so many holes in this floating rubbish with a “rifle” caliber machine gun so that it stops floating and sinks...
Although all the same, it should be used as a “temporary measure”. To at least do something.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

))) it was a joke. I know. The same MIG-31 (a logical continuation of the 25s), primarily air defense, everything else is a “bonus”.

Our regiment was preparing to be re-equipped with the MiG-31, but apparently among the last, there was simply a plant in Nasosnaya, where it was based, for the repair of these particular aircraft. And the border with Iran (Azerbaijan) was not then considered the main threat in the event of TMV. But we were preparing. The chief of aviation even gave me a book on the MiG-31 (DSP) for reference. We didn’t have time - the Union was gone.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

??? I didn't know about the turntables. True, I wasn’t interested.

This decision (to arm the border air defense formations with combat helicopters) was made after analyzing the reasons for the passage of Rust. I graduated that year and soon after that incident a large group of colonels from the General Staff and the Air Defense Headquarters came to our school - they showed us the entire minute-by-minute layout of this incident, with all the details and circumstances. And then I also got a military internship in the Tallinn brigade, where the brigade commander already told us everything in the same way. There was simply nothing to intercept Rust and escort him to his airfield - the fighter (MiG-23) had a minimum speed of 400 - 450 km/h. During the flight, he couldn’t even get a good look at it. And while I turned around and made a circle, the Cessna was no longer there. Apparently he sat down on some lawn and sat for two hours waiting for arrest. But no one noticed him - the area was deserted. It has a time dip (determined by the remaining fuel) of 2 hours. But for the first time, the brigade commander of the Tallinn brigade told us that he most likely sat down then.
After this, it was decided to give each border division/corps a Mi-24 helicopter squadron to intercept this type of target.
There is no need to equip the Mi-24P with anything - it has 23 mm. a double-barreled shotgun, and if necessary, then attach at least NURs, machine guns, or cannons for suspension. At a speed of 320 - 340 km/h (maximum), it will intercept any Cessna, any light engine. And for everything else we had enough other goods beyond all measure.
I’ll add the rest in a personal message, it’s more convenient to type there.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

the border with Iran (Azerbaijan) was not then considered the main threat in the event of TMV

Even now she is not. These are “wild” Persians, not “civilized” Naglichans.

Quote: bayard

There is no need to equip the Mi-24P with anything - it has 23 mm. a double-barreled shotgun, and if necessary, then attach at least NURs, machine guns, or cannons for suspension.

I'm talking about the fight against aircraft drones. The crocodile has excessive firepower. It is necessary to hit targets taking into account the question of “what’s next?” With small calibers there are slightly fewer questions.
I apologize, I forgot about NATO’s desire to enter the BU - it seems to me that the exercises and mobilization they are currently conducting in Poland are “tailored” to this very topic.

Quote: bayard

I’ll add the rest in a personal message, it’s more convenient to type there.

I type in Word, and then “copy and paste.” Quite comfortable. Just remember to move quotes “back and forth” so as not to bother with formatting.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Even now she is not. These are “wild” Persians, not “civilized” Naglichans.

No, back then the Iranian Air Force was still quite a decent force. Their entire fleet of F-14s against our regiment on the MiG-25 was more than a serious force. And their “Phantoms” against our Su-24Ms in Kurdamir were quite a serious opponent. And their F-5Es flew constantly from Tabriz. There was simply no threat from them. We would have crushed their aviation with our air defense systems alone. Yes, and they were only withdrawing after the Iran-Iraq war; it ended exactly the year I arrived there. And the Americans would not risk attacking us through Iran with their carrier-based aircraft.
But the satellites were landing (everyone went through our landing zone) and so did the Buran. 117 pcs. in year . Mostly military men with film footage.
And our “Crocodiles” were mainly not supposed to shoot down, but to force intruders to land and escort light aircraft or helicopters to our airfield. They didn’t open fire in vain then.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

regarding NATO’s desire to enter the BU - it seems to me that the exercises and mobilization they are currently conducting in Poland are “tailored” to this very topic.

They are now inciting Sweden and Finland, and the Romanians and Czechs, to do this. And even the Germans...who have two to three times more officers than soldiers in their army - why not an “Army of Commanders” for NATO?
So frivolity is inappropriate now, they don’t know how to lose, and they won’t be able to quietly lie down and die under the fence of History.
How's the classic doing? "
"No one wanted war. War was inevitable."

... And in personal messages I have another problem - the paragraph does not transfer.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

No, then the Iranian Air Force

There was sarcasm about the “wild” Persians and the “civilized” West. Well, I don’t see a threat from Iran. It is clear that “there is no need to relax.” But they prefer to negotiate, while the “civilizers” are more inclined to plunder.

Quote: bayard

"No one wanted war. War was inevitable."

We categorically do not want to get into this quarrel. Just like the Naglichans. That is, if it does happen, it will not be in the “Russia VS NATO” format, but most likely in the “Russia VS part of the EU” format. Moreover, the “nuclear component” of the opposing side will be France, without England and the USA. The presence of nuclear weapons is one of the reasons why the arrogant Saxons are actively pushing Emmanuel against us. At the same time, Britain receives a bonus - we have knocked out a competitor for the position of “leader” of Europe.
Fuck knows... Napoleon is speaking today. There are rumors that there are about 900-1000 frogmen in uniform ALREADY near Odessa. Apparently under the pretext of “ensuring the security” of the port. Well, for the rest, including the Poles (don’t forget about their exercises and mobilization), this will be a “test”. They'll see how we react.
There is another point - by getting into Odessa, the French are probably hoping that Erdogan will open the straits. At least for their ships. The only question is that France is actively interfering with Armenia, which Turkey (as well as Iran, Azerbaijan, and Russia) really don’t like. France is friends with Greece, specifically against Turkey. So with the straits, it looks doubtful.

Quote: bayard

what is not "Army of Commanders"

It seems to me that such “commanders and instructors” are not even funny. If they need real commanders and real instructors, they need to focus on the Ukrainians. On their part, no one else has such experience.
I watched videos from their Western training centers and training grounds. Let’s say, through the “prism” of personal experience, they, the Western military, do not know how to fight. They don't learn to fight. They don't even understand what it is in the current conditions. Despite quite a long time... They chatter, BUT how they move. How are they taught to move?! This is nonsense designed to act against a “lone partisan with a double-barreled shotgun”... Damn, they don’t even understand the issues of first aid on the scene...
Earlier, at the beginning of the “counter-offensive”, it was funny - a Ukrainian serviceman asked a question to an instructor from the Bundeswehr, what should be done when you run into a minefield with tanks. Fritz replied that “we need to go around. Because the minefield cannot be more than 100-200 meters." When they told him about kilometers and about “to the horizon”, Fritz absolutely calmly replied that “that doesn’t happen”...)))

Quote: bayard

In PM I have another problem - the paragraph is not transferred.

In my opinion, everyone has this.
Today I’m sitting, waiting for what Manya will say.

[0x0]

According to Macron’s address to the nation, everyone expected bloodshed from him, but he ate a siskin...
...Manyu merged...And he threatened...

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

According to Macron’s address to the nation, everyone expected bloodshed from him, but he ate a siskin...
...Manyu merged...And he threatened...

I haven't listened to it, but I approve.

Dmitry Anatolyevich today annealed with his “Formula of the World”. The mood was lifted.
So against the backdrop of Manya, who ate Chizhik, his World Formula is especially expressive.

[0x0]

To be honest, I was expecting this “address to the nation” with quite strong caution after what he had blabbed. Fuck knows WHAT a hysterical woman can teach... Besides, the arrogant people are definitely actively pushing him.
So, most likely, you shouldn’t expect any serious advances from the West. At least for now. The most likely “horizon”, if based on conventional weapons, is from three to five years. Rather more. Train specialists + expand production + develop some - no warehouse stocks + review logistics capabilities. Well, it’s clear - the personnel. Do all this in the context of a growing complex crisis? Including socio-political???
But in other directions they will crap...

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The most likely “horizon”, if based on conventional weapons, is from three to five years. Rather more. Train specialists + expand production + develop some - no warehouse stocks + review logistics capabilities.

They don’t have this time, besides, we forestalled them in the deployment and mobilization of the Economy and the country as a whole, so they will escalate right now using the resources that they have. And they have reasons to be in such a hurry - we really can finish the North Military District with a decisive and final Victory before the end of this year. And without a second hand it will be much more difficult for them to fight against us.
They are saving their Financial System. Its parasitic “leadership”. In the last interview with Kiselyov, VVP said that the feast of vampires is coming to an end... And since they don’t know how to lose, they will simply trample on the entire collective farm, like in WWII.
And we will have to close this project of Western civilization at once - in the most radical and decisive way.
Or give them a Revolution in Europe and a Civil War in the USA. . . As a soft solution to the issue.
But the First Option is much more reliable and faster.
But “Suicide Club” seems unstoppable.
And it’s absolutely not worth starting conventional toys with them. Any calculations on supercomputers show that a military clash of this kind (with the NATO bloc) will end in escalation and a nuclear exchange. Therefore, you need to hit first and immediately to the maximum - for complete destruction. Because they have already made their choice.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

They don't have that time

We understand that they don’t have time. But I’m not at all sure about their understanding of this. They estimated the impact of the Russian economy on the world at only 3%? And only with the passage of time and with the onset of consequences, it began to dawn on them that it could be 3%, BUT if these percentages are in the “foundation”, then the influence is much more significant. The same applies to oil – petroleum products. They were confident that they would easily replace it. Well, as for gas, it’s generally insanely fun. I'm following the topic)))
Just for understanding - now, on the European stock exchange, gas prices have stabilized at a completely adequate level. Their politicians are very happy, BUT THEY already understand that this price stabilization is caused solely by the fall in demand for gas from industry! They are simply not able to expand production! Because this will immediately cause an increase in demand for primary energy resources, and the volumes they require simply do not exist!!! The price will instantly fly into space. There are not so many developed gas fields. There are not that many LNG production plants. There are not so many tankers for transporting LNG. And there is nowhere to take all this! Yes, theoretically, it is possible to obtain the necessary volumes within a period of 3-5 years, BUT this requires colossal investments. Gas is produced outside the EU and the companies producing it are not going to expand production and transportation without a guarantee of long-term sales at a reasonable price. And the EU intends to significantly reduce gas consumption by 2030... Well, why the hell should Qatar throw away money? Add to this the question of the Houthis, who recently conducted a successful test of a solid-fuel hypersonic missile (probable arms supplies to Yemen do not make Iran, Russia and China a party to the conflict)))??? As far as I could assess, now not only the Red Sea, but also a significant part of the Indian Ocean is within their reach... WHAT will the logistics be like for Europe? How many tankers and gas tankers will they need?! HOW MUCH will all this cost?!
Until 2022, the arithmetic was very simple: if you need the capacity to liquefy a million cubic meters of gas per year, invest a billion dollars in an LNG plant. And this is not counting geological exploration, field development, tanker construction, construction of appropriate port facilities for both shipping and receiving, construction of regasification terminals...
The European Union is critically dependent on external energy supplies. And this, among other things, is also extremely vulnerable, in economic, political, military and sabotage-terrorist terms, logistics, which can be interrupted “with the snap of a finger”... Not a shell, not a missile, ONE large-caliber bullet into the tank of a stationary gas tanker under loading and unloading and that's it! The logistics are over! There are plywood walls.

Quote: bayard

we forestalled them in the deployment and mobilization of the Economy and the country as a whole

I don't agree completely. Both the country and the economy have, by and large, not yet mobilized. Not everyone fully understands the level of the current confrontation and threats. Yes, work/"movement" is happening, but we are "still on the way."

Quote: bayard

since they don’t know how to lose, they’ll simply trample on the entire collective farm, like in WWII

I don't think it will work. For this, Russophobia alone is not enough, it is necessary to “mobilize” society, and not only is it extremely heterogeneous, but it has also been brought up, for more than one generation, as a society of egoistic individualists. It, by default, is not ready for self-restraint + migrants... In addition, there is an extremely acute shortage of troops, weapons, and ammunition. How many Patriot missiles do they produce per year? After “accelerating” production, as many as 300 pieces per year! With such consumption in Ukraine, in the Red Sea, in Israel?! If necessary, make savings for a likely confrontation with China?
Yes, thanks to the marked Judas, for “Tomahawks” and the like, they have VERY large reserves. It seems like a massive attack on Syria showed their low effectiveness, BUT there are a LOT of them. But this “very much” is owned not by the EU, not by NATO, but exclusively by the USA. The EU is “naked and barefoot.” Well, the thane does not plan to get involved in a direct conflict with us. They don’t need it for free, and they don’t need it for money. Okay, let’s say that on the eve of a clash, the USA will transfer a significant part of these reserves to the Europeans. The main platform for launching them is ships. The real threat comes from a massive strike, not even from hundreds, but rather from thousands of missiles. It is obvious that they will have to pull up ship groups to our borders. I seriously doubt that we will look at this calmly and pick our noses. And we probably don’t need to talk about the vulnerability of ships to weapons of destruction.
I am in no way advocating to “rest on your laurels.” The threat exists and it is real. Even due to the inadequacy of their leadership. But it’s also not worth considering a direct collision as inevitable.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

We understand that they don’t have time. But I’m not at all sure about their understanding of this. They estimated the impact of the Russian economy on the world at only 3%?

Yes, they underestimated the structure of our exports, but the main thing is that we will have allies in the BV. And they overestimated their influence on oil and gas producing countries. In addition, the decision to provoke us into the Northern Military District was made not in Europe, but in the USA and England.
But it is precisely for this reason that they do not have time. Hitler also did not have his own oil and reliable access to it; his economy depended on many critical positions in raw materials. But that is precisely why he attacked us, considering the USSR to be the weak link and the source of all this missing.
The EU doesn't have gas and oil? Voila - Russia has it in abundance, like gas, like coal, like much else. We must take it. A cunning Plan to provoke the Russian Federation into the North Military District, a setup, guarantees from the head of the CIA that the United States will not interfere and... a trap for the Small Army.
But they did not succeed in defeating Russia on the battlefield, and now a grandiose Defeat from Russia on the battlefield loomed in all its glory. And not only second-hand, but also the entire collective West. And this is a catastrophe for them on an unprecedented scale. And they don't know how to lose.
Remember the assessments of the capabilities of the Wehrmacht before the Second World War by our General Staff - the Germans have no winter weapon lubricant, no winter uniforms, insufficient resources and an unfinished conflict with England... And according to sound logic, Hitler would never dare to attack in 1941. And perhaps even in 1942 ...But we thought poorly of the spirit of adventurism of Western man and Western elites. In a critical situation, they are guided not by logic and cold calculation, but by the thought that they “have no right to lose.”
And they don’t care about the readiness of their armies (the Rothschilds and Co. don’t care), they will simply put together a coalition and send troops into the country on their own. Not to the front. Having opened another Overton window - well, when Russia has doubts, it will go to negotiations... and in the negotiations these card sharpers will exhaust for themselves all the conditions, guarantees, and time will be gained for the launch of the military-industrial complex and rearmament and the last mobilization of used ones. There is untapped potential there between the ages of 18 and 27, who have not been called up before. And they will now bargain for time for their training and armament in any way possible.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

ONE large-caliber bullet into the tank of a gas tanker standing under loading and unloading and that’s it!

The wall thickness of the container-sphere of the gas carrier is 40 mm. Although steel is not armored and is very cooled (brittle), one bullet may not be enough. But in the valve of the shut-off equipment - yes.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

How many Patriot missiles do they produce per year? After “accelerating” production, as many as 300 pieces per year! With such consumption in Ukraine, in the Red Sea, in Israel?!

They want to organize deliveries to Israel and Japan (they produce these missiles under license) and will hold back their own for showdowns with China.
It is not the United States, but England and the European elites under its control that want escalation in Europe and Europe. And I won’t be surprised that they will throw funny European armies at us, just as we threw our funny Little Army at the Northern Military District.
And we will be faced with the question of whether our accumulated forces and resources will be enough to win in a few months, taking into account the introduction of a contingent of 300+ thousand NATO bayonets there. Subject to the start of total mobilization in the age category from 18 to 27 years.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

for Tomahawks and the like, they have VERY large reserves.

In the 90s, it was planned to have up to 50 such missile launchers in stock. But in reality their number is estimated at approximately 000 - 5000 KR. If we divide this number among all surface and submarine ships, then this is certainly a lot, but not excessive, and at the same time it will be very difficult for them to organize such a salvo. During the SVO, we have already used at least as many missile launchers.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

I seriously doubt that we will look at this calmly and pick our noses.

Any escalation by nuclear powers leads to a full-scale Nuclear War. And here, as in a duel, strike first, be precise. And it’s better to use sawed-off buckshot - just to be sure. For this is not a duel, but a bandit shooter. But bandits have a completely different mental structure, you need to know it, understand it, take it into account and not give the enemy the initiative at a critical moment. Those. a preemptive strike on enemy territory must be prepared right now. For the territory of all countries involved in the conflict. And in England and the USA - first of all. And precisely by the “Poseidons” with the finishing off of the surviving potential. And then we’ll sort it out in a working manner on a used one.
They must feel this in their skin every second. And don't doubt it for a second.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

they underestimated the structure of our exports

They misjudged the “structure” of the economy. Theirs is the “post-industrial” type, with an emphasis on conditional coaches-merchandisers-managers-bankers of both industry and ours, with an emphasis on the real, mining, manufacturing and logistics sectors. They lived for quite a long time, more than one generation, in these hothouse conditions, when they worked hard alone, and they got the cream. And in my opinion, the fall of the Union played a huge role in this incorrect assessment of theirs. By the way, this also greatly damaged their analytical centers, their ability to make real forecasts, as well as the development and implementation of truly effective technologies in various spheres of life, including the defense industry. Why? I’ll try to explain, at the level of my understanding: in the Union, in the party, BEFORE the war, really ideological people joined. This was especially true in the early years of the formation of Soviet power. They clearly understood that in the event of the defeat of the Land of the Soviets, they would be hung on all the nearby trees. Or they were shot in the nearest ravine. Their personal, not even well-being, but survival, was inextricably linked with the life of the country. During the war, significant “negative selection” occurred. Some rogue opportunist who achieved armor or fled for evacuation had a greater chance of survival than a patriot on the front line or behind enemy lines. After the war, the Union had the most powerful and combat-ready army on the planet, a mobilized population with unique combat experience, and a mobilized industry. The direct and immediate threat to the existence of the country has disappeared. The direct threat to the physical existence of state and party functionaries also disappeared. This is where they, opportunistic careerists, got into trouble... Khrushchev, as leader of the country, was not wound up from dampness. He was supported by the environment...
Accordingly, by the 80s, these “careerists-opportunists” had reached quite a respectable age. They needed to pass on the accumulated influence and material wealth by inheritance. Preferably by legal means. In the conditionally socialist environment of the late Soviet Union, this was very difficult. Wednesday pushes the labeled Judas and EBN into the first roles...
Well, now to our Western sheep - with the destruction of the Union, the direct and immediate threat of the destruction of Western countries and the physical extermination of their elites has disappeared. And if earlier, in various analytical centers, it was precisely specialists who gave realistic forecasts that were needed; in scientific and engineering departments, it was precisely professionals who created actually working models of equipment that were needed, then since the disappearance of the opponent, someone else began to move into these seemingly not dusty places. relatives, necessary ones, or simply “good” people. Well, the main indicator of scientific and technical developments was not the effectiveness of the idea embodied in metal, but profit... Accordingly, the result...
Of course, it also played a role that as a source of information about the state of our society, they began to use our existing marginal minority, which has its own, as it turns out, inadequate point of view on the mood/state of our society. At the moment, they already realize their mistake, but they do not have the opportunity to quickly “turn around” this state of affairs. Because any possible replacement was brought up in exactly that environment and is the bearer of exactly those ideas. They saw the same thing in economics. But even here they cannot change anything in the short term. A coach cannot, with the wave of a “magic wand,” become an adequate welder, and a barista cannot become a skilled turner. This requires TIME. By the way, we have realized this and are now actively “vacuuming” representatives of blue-collar professions from Central Asia and Latin America. Well, the self-propelled grandfather, in one of his speeches already in this election round, stated that he would change the teaching system in schools so that by the 6th grade children would be able to read and count...

Quote: bayard

Hitler also did not have his own oil and reliable access to it; his economy depended on many critical positions in raw materials.

He had fairly reasonable synthetic gasoline produced from coal, quite reliable, at the time of the start of the war with the Union, logistics for supplying the missing raw materials, a well-motivated, homogeneous and fully educated society. Now they have none of this.

Quote: bayard

The EU doesn't have gas and oil? Voila - Russia has it in abundance, like gas, like coal, like much else. We must take it.

I have already spoken in detail above about the mistake of analysts in assessing the situation, the state of the economy and society, and much, much more. Of course, the changes in their assessment of the situation were influenced by the demonstration in a real situation of the effectiveness of “Putin’s cartoons” (bunkers are no longer a panacea. There is a real threat to our own physical safety), and the presence of the largest nuclear arsenal.

Quote: bayard

Now a grandiose Defeat from Russia on the battlefield looms in all its glory

There is a defeat on the battlefield on the territory of the BU, with their indirect participation, BUT in the case of direct intervention, there is a threat of defeat for their own army. It is precisely the second option that is unacceptable. And BU? And what about BU. There are options here for “crawl away”. One is “freeze/Korean scenario/truce along the existing line of contact” and you and you (which is already actively broadcast by their media and some politicians). If Russia does not agree to this (I extremely hope so, because it is fraught with consequences in some future), then “remember” the corruption of the Kiev regime, its crimes, the infringement of a significant part of its own population and turn on the “yes, we “saw” it here” mode that Russia, in fact, was probably right, but it just acted too harshly. It was necessary to be more gentle, or to negotiate.” And this idea is also actively broadcast by their media and other politicians. The same cries of Manyu, essentially voicing the desire to put events “on pause”.

Quote: bayard

And according to common logic, Hitler would never dare to attack in 1941.

Hitler hoped to conclude a separate peace with the arrogant Saxons. And by and large, a rather strange, rather sluggish war was taking place on that front (I hope it is clear that I am exaggerating somewhat). But from our point of view, at that time, this logic was quite sound.

Quote: bayard

The wall thickness of the container-sphere of the gas carrier is 40 mm.

There is actually modified plywood for working in low temperature conditions. It seems like two enterprises on the planet do this. One is either in France or South Korea (sorry, I don’t remember). And we have the second one. But that’s not the point – they are very vulnerable, these gas carriers. Accordingly, logistics, in the event of an aggravation of the situation, is under a very great, rather even inevitable threat.

Quote: bayard

They want to organize supplies from Japan to Israel (where these missiles are produced under license)

I didn’t find specific figures, but I don’t think that production volumes are at least comparable to those of the hechemon. Plus the total lack of own resources.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

I won’t be surprised that they will throw funny European armies at us

Of course. That's why I was quite wary because of Emmanuel's squeals. Especially considering that the paddling pools are the only owners of nuclear weapons in that part of the world, besides the arrogant Saxons.

Quote: bayard

we threw our funny Little Army into the Northern Military District.

Our tasks were different, not to conquer (kill), but to force. Limited force impact is not for the purpose of causing unacceptable damage, but for the purpose of accepting the required conditions. Actions are precisely in the logic of a law enforcement officer. BUT, I do not rule out some kind of “provocation” on our part - a demonstration of some kind of “weakness”.

Quote: bayard

taking into account the introduction of a contingent of 300+ thousand NATO bayonets there.

At present, they are not capable of such an amount. Even in terms of logistics. I think that over time we will learn a lot of interesting things about how the Abrams got to the BS line. Communications were built during the Soviet Union, and there were obviously restrictions placed on the passage of Western, traditionally heavier and more cumbersome equipment. Ask what problems the Poles encountered when they purchased these wunderwaffes. They had a very big problem getting from their base to the nearby training ground.

Quote: bayard

But in reality their number is estimated at approximately 5000 - 7000 KR. If we divide this number among all surface and submarine ships, then this is certainly a lot, but not excessive, and at the same time it will be very difficult for them to organize such a salvo. During the SVO, we have already used at least as many missile launchers.

All the same, A LOT. Especially considering the presence of other missiles. With such a large-scale attack, no air defense will hold it back. And the issue with the platforms has, in fact, been resolved already on the territory of Poland - a “landed” universal launcher. This issue can be resolved (in my opinion) exclusively by a preventive strike. One thing is good - with the current means of detection, it is simply not possible to hide preparations for such a massive salvo.

Quote: bayard

During the SVO, we have already used at least as many missile launchers

Stretched out over time, and not in a massive, one-time salvo.

Quote: bayard

Any escalation by nuclear powers leads to a full-scale Nuclear War

Well, let’s say not just “escalation”, but a direct collision. And it is not guaranteed to lead, but it can lead with a VERY high probability. Still, up to a certain point, there is a possibility, albeit theoretical, to “crawl away.” But I don’t believe in “limited nuclear war” from the word “absolutely”. Rave. If a decision is made to use a special warhead, then the bullet must be fired in such a way that either there is no response at all, or so that the threat of such is minimal. Here it’s either to hit or not to hit.

Quote: bayard

They must feel this in their skin every second. And don't doubt it for a second.

If they don’t want to respect you, let them be afraid. A useful feeling for self-preservation.
Ugh... well, we can even make “sheets”... I apologize, in short, I tried - nothing... I have to write two messages...

[bayard]

And yet the enemy has already made the decision about war.
And he will send in troops this summer. At their last exercises, this is exactly what they practiced - the introduction of a 300-strong group with the crossing of water barriers and the organization of logistics. They have already trained to their heart's content on a used site; in all the recent exercises, which were quite large-scale, they practiced exactly what they would have to do when intervening in a conflict on a used site. The military budgets of all NATO countries have been sharply increased, some countries are going to return to the practice of conscription and a return to military service. And the introduction of the group into/on will precisely be the reason for the start of mobilization activities in Europe.
And it will be a considerable success if by the end of this year we manage to unwind ourselves from TMV.
Therefore, a preemptive strike with the complete elimination of the enemy from our planet is the only correct and most rational solution.
And the madmen left us no other solution.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

And yet the enemy has already made the decision about war.
And he will send in troops this summer.

If only OUTSIDE NATO and without the participation of the USA, which has ALREADY significantly reduced its military presence in Europe (by no less than 11%).
In addition, there are a bunch of NATO member countries that have already stated that they categorically refuse to take part in such an event.

Quote: bayard

At their last exercises, this is exactly what they practiced - the introduction of a 300-strong group with the crossing of water barriers and the organization of logistics.

Where do they, according to the standard, have 30 days allotted for the deployment of an advanced group of 000 bayonets, WITHOUT rear units...

Quote: bayard

Military budgets of all NATO countries have increased sharply

They have increased the budget, but just for now, as in that joke about “checkers or go.” There are checkers, but the ride is not very good yet. Horizon, not earlier than 3-5 years. Seriously though. If it’s “foolish”, then I agree, some may do it earlier. But the consequences of this for the West can be really disastrous even without the use of nuclear weapons.

Quote: bayard

some countries are going to return to the practice of conscription and a return to military service

Again, this may have some effect in the future 3-5 years after the introduction of conscription service. Better 10-15.

Quote: bayard

And the introduction of the group into/on will precisely be the reason for the start of mobilization activities in Europe.

After??? It will be already too late.

Quote: bayard

And it will be a considerable success if by the end of this year we manage to unwind ourselves from TMV.

She's ALREADY coming. The truth is in the “sluggish” phase.

Quote: bayard

Therefore, a preemptive strike with the complete elimination of the enemy from our planet is the only correct and most rational solution.

Well, hitting “just like that” is also not comme il faut. But if some kind of strike configuration is formed near our borders, then undoubtedly. The carriers must be destroyed BEFORE they discharge their ammunition on us.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

If only OUTSIDE NATO and without USA participation,

The United States will most likely completely freeze away from European affairs - they now have goals and objectives in Southeast Asia. Before the elections, they are unlikely to decide on such an adventure, especially since Trump and his people have blocked financing for used equipment.
If Trump wins (and he will certainly win if he survives), then England and its kennel the EU may not count on help. He won't just send them.
And if something prevents Trump from becoming president, then it will be “a sea of ​​fire and a sea of ​​blood” - that’s what Trump said and it will certainly be that way.
Now all of Europe and NATO are being hysterical by England... or rather, the Rothschilds standing behind/above it. In the USA, the British elite consider the Democratic Party to be their American office. . So, in essence, we are now seeing a confrontation between the British and American elites there (USA). Their mortal combat. And until recently, it was the English elites and their office in the United States that had the upper hand. But now everything will be different. and extremely tough.
Now realize that the observed hysteria in Europe and NATO is not a reflection of managerial impulses from the United States, it is a reflection of the state of the aristocratic and banking houses of Europe. And if they are shaking the United States like this and even a civil war there does not scare them, then imagine what crimes and follies they are ready for in their despair.
Europe can only be saved by the Revolution. It is a social revolution with the demolition of the entire ruling class. Otherwise, it's the end of everything. And it seems to me that this is exactly what will happen there soon.
Long live the Pan-European Riot!!
Thoughtless, but merciless.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Quote: bayard
And it will be a considerable success if by the end of this year we manage to unwind ourselves from TMV.

She's ALREADY coming. The truth is in the “sluggish” phase.

How many times have I been told this already? Dima Utkin did this back in the spring of 2015. And the Pope proclaimed it this way back in 2012... His Mom just got sick then.
I meant, of course, the hot phase of a direct armed conflict.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

After??? It will be already too late.

I think that after the entry of their group, losses will immediately begin, which will become a reason for mobilization procedures for the EU Microns.
And since mobilization is war, for us this will also become a reason for a pre-emptive strike. After such a blow, they simply will not exist. And we will have to build a Brave New World.

[0x0]

Well, regardless of the outcome of the elections, the “movement” will probably begin. Either way, there will be a mass of extremely dissatisfied and radically minded electorates/groups in power. In the event of Trump’s possible imprisonment, or his death from natural causes (and what could be more natural than death from a bullet to the head?), or his failure to be elected, a riot is virtually guaranteed. In the spirit of "senseless and merciless." But the hegemon, with all due respect, still has enough capabilities and determination to suppress it by force. Why might they decide to do this? The arrival of Trump is a direct threat to the personal safety and well-being of many of the current ruling elites. Do they need it? The only alternative is to negotiate now. Then yes, in the event of an agreement, everything will go quite “smoothly” and with “little bloodshed.”
Regarding the EU and NATO, as I already said, they are currently fighting there: 1. England 2. Germany 3. France 4. Poland 5. Vatican. The states have moved somewhat aside. At the same time, Poland is primarily a puppet of England, and secondly, it is still, perhaps “by inertia,” propped up by the USA against Russia. Germany in this race relied precisely on the fact that it was the “locomotive” of the EU economy. The key word is “was”. Energy consumption is collapsing at a colossal pace. Of course, due to a drop in production. Accordingly, the economy. France relied primarily on ambition. She was showing off. But it is regularly “omitted” by both EU and NATO allies, former colonies, and us. Moreover, they are “lowered” publicly and in very humiliating ways. Before the start of the SVO, Manyu rushed to a reception with Putin, after which he joyfully broadcast to the whole world about what an important player France is in the international arena. And then oops... 24.02... It is likely that his recent bellicose cries are just an attempt to take a more advantageous position before the negotiations passionately desired by the West. There are also hints of an “Olympic truce” (somehow I didn’t understand Emmanuel’s logic: it turns out that Putin should call Manyu before the games. Manyu will pick up the phone and give instructions to Putin about the truce???). If so, then the effect was the opposite for him. Napoleon, in a coalition with Macronesia (Baltic Tigers), failed in status. The shouting at the godfather opened the laugher. It is fraught with consequences. For a rotten market, you can ask like an adult. Both with Manyu and with a tie. Moreover, it wouldn’t be a bad idea to ask. He's not into something like that. If he asks for something like that, big trouble might happen. They will ask their own people, albeit quietly, but as if they were asking. Oops... that’s a good start))) Sorry))) In short, toad eaters are unlikely to play the role of leader of the remains of Europe.
And here is the Vatican. This is a very interesting player. And it is under the Vatican that most of the aristocracy. They do not shine particularly anywhere, but they play a significant role, including in political life. They clearly influence the appointment of certain representatives of elite groups. Moreover, as far as I can understand, the goals of the Vatican largely coincide with the desires of the electorate. Definitely, even without revolutionary events, we will observe a change in the political establishment in the EU countries.
Of course, England remains a strong player, but its capabilities, in the absence of resources and degradation of the elite, are very difficult to assess.

Quote: bayard

I meant, of course, the hot phase of a direct armed conflict.

Well, now she is “hot”, but sluggish and not sharp.

Quote: bayard

I think that after the entry of their group, losses will immediately begin, which will become a reason for mobilization procedures for the EU Microns.

They need to mobilize BEFORE entry. And several months in advance, in order to have time to prepare. Otherwise, there simply won’t be enough numbers. Now, according to estimates, they, without weapons and arrogance, are able to roll out 2-3 divisions. No more. There is no equipment or personnel. Remember how the Bundeswehr tank brigade was formed for deployment in Lithuania... This is a tragedy, no worse than Shakespeare! By the way, they couldn’t seem to find the tanks to fully equip them and the money to finance this event...
The reason for a pre-emptive strike for us will not be mobilization, but the concentration of missile carriers. Drawing their aviation and navy to our borders, placing ground-based launchers. Everything else is unpleasant, but does not really pose a mortal danger.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

In the event of Trump’s possible imprisonment, or his death from natural causes (and what could be more natural than death from a bullet to the head?), or his failure to be elected, a riot is virtually guaranteed.

Trump and his supporters are consciously going to aggravate, and if necessary, escalate the Civil War. The trick is that in conditions of civil conflict it is much easier, faster and more “natural” to carry out a complete purge of the British elites (democrats of their party) - the Civil War will write off everything.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

But the hegemon, with all due respect, still has enough capabilities and determination to suppress it by force.

The hegemon is divided. And even by state. A demonstration of strength, intentions and determination was the decision of half the states of the United States to send their National Guard to help the Texas Rangers and their National Guard. But the National Guard in the USA is not the USSR Military Forces; they have tanks, artillery, and combat aircraft. The basis of forces in the United States is the National Guard. And its best forces are for Trump. So is the Army Officer Corps. And since in the event of an escalation, not only rednecks, not only all of White America, but also national business, elites, state leaderships, police, most and the best part of the officer corps of the Army and Navy, PMCs, the Rifle Association, but also a considerable number will rise to take revenge for Trump. part of the colored population of the USA... North America will burn fun and bright.
Trump will escalate not only for the sake of revenge and purge of the British elites in the United States and their agents, but also to prevent TMB, in which case not a single major city will remain from the United States. They know well about the possibility of tidal waves - they themselves have made films about this more than once... But in the movies the waves were 100-120 m high, but this time the real ones will be at least 500 m high. The jokes are over and the seriousness of the moment Everyone there who is sane already understands.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The only alternative is to negotiate now. Then yes, in the event of an agreement, everything will go quite “smoothly” and with “little bloodshed.”

This moment has already passed. And no one trusts British agents in the Trump camp. Most likely it will be the tough one... or the toughest of the scenarios. The pots there have already been beaten and will soon begin to attack the trunks... The film "Civil War" is a wonderful scenario for the future.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Regarding the EU and NATO, as I already said, they are currently fighting there: 1. England 2. Germany 3. France 4. Poland 5. Vatican. The states have moved somewhat aside. Moreover, Poland is primarily a puppet of England,

England, like France, is controlled by the Rothschilds, whose protege is Macron. So France, as in WWII... as it tried in WWII - “the English sword in Europe”. No more . But no less. Hungary is now the spokesman for the will and plans of the Vatican. As heiress of Austria-Hungary.
And Germany stands completely apart - a non-subject state entity, occupied by the Anglo-Saxons, without a combat-ready army, weak-willed, but paying for all the wants of the Anglo-Saxons in Europe and NATO. .. Her fate is sad and most likely another Partition awaits her... And England wants this. In order to eliminate any possibility of rebellion on the European Peninsula.
But Trump is from Germany...
And oddly enough, the majority of the white population of the United States, although English-speaking, also has roots - from various lands of Germany... and German-speaking countries.
Here's a compote.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Oops... I'm starting to write down))) Sorry)))

The Russian Language is normally alive, it always pleases the ear.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

And here is the Vatican. This is a very interesting player. And it is under the Vatican that most of the aristocracy.

Yes, but how did the Father of Peoples formulate his question: “The Pope? How many divisions does the Pope have?” .
England has France and Poland, not counting small forces and its own armed forces. And also a very large number of PMCs around the world. How much does the Vatican have?
Moreover, at meetings, it is dad who kisses the Rothschilds’ hand, and not vice versa. . . So there will definitely not be a confrontation here, but an agreement is quite likely... and the Pope will be given a little bit of Europe. Or they will organize/try some kind of symbiosis.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Definitely, even without revolutionary events, we will observe a change in the political establishment in the EU countries.

But is it in our interests to let such an important procedure take its course? Isn’t it safer for our security to completely demolish the European elites - to the roots, and physically?
By the hands of the rebellious oppressed People, of course.
Was it in vain that so many new people from Africa and Asia were brought there for so many years? And they continue to import.
That is why the local-indigenous population is extremely dissatisfied.
We must give vent to the People's Anger. Was it in vain that Comrade Lenin invented a whole science about this? Slogans can be different... completely different. The main thing is that the goals for the elimination of all ruling elites are united.
And they certainly WILL be united.
Dugin agrees with me on this.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Quote: bayard
I meant, of course, the hot phase of a direct armed conflict.

Well, now she is “hot”, but sluggish and not sharp.

The phase is certainly hot and sluggish, but this is not a direct conflict between the armies of the Russian Federation and NATO.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

They need to mobilize BEFORE entry. And several months in advance, in order to have time to prepare. Otherwise, there simply won’t be enough numbers.

They can't start mobilizing right now - there will be panic and possibly even riots. But to bring in your troops under a plausible pretext, supposedly to ... “force Russia to peace,” is a completely different matter. They are now looking at all possible reasons for this... even the Olympics.
But as soon as the troops are brought in and the STRIKES begin against them... losses will begin. And then they will have a reason to mobilize.
Their mobilization will go awry, of course, but the Ukrainian Armed Forces have not yet been completely drained of blood, a new large mobilization is being prepared, and NATO troops will replace the Ukrainian Armed Forces units in the western regions of the used ones. As a result, the Ukrainian Armed Forces, with proper supplies and funding, will be able (they think so) to hold out until the end of this year, even if they lose some territories.
This is their calculation.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Now, according to estimates, they, without weapons and arrogance, are able to roll out 2-3 divisions. No more. There is no equipment or personnel.

Right now they won’t need any more. For the rest of NATO’s waste, they’ll scrape together one or two more divisions (Poland alone can give more) - that’s the corps they’re looking for.
And for the first stage they don’t need anything more. Then they will tighten the screws on themselves, shake their losses and call for “sacred vengeance”.
And while the Ukrainians are holding the front, they will mobilize at home.
Rothschilds and Co. don't care about Europeans. They know how to organize wars.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

Trump and his supporters are consciously going to aggravate, and if necessary, escalate the Civil War. The trick is that in conditions of civil conflict it is much easier, faster and more “natural” to carry out a complete purge of the British elites (democrats of their party) - the Civil War will write off everything.

Trump is a rather peculiar type, but I doubt that he is an idiot. If he wanted blood, then, at least theoretically, he could have “let it go” during his presidential term. And he basically “flowed around” and “wiped off”. Conduct a “purge” and at the same time split the country? Against the backdrop of the current crisis??? Now the states should be a “safe haven” where capital from Europe can flee. Trump cannot help but realize this. If elected, he doesn’t need any internal conflict.

Quote: bayard

The hegemon is divided. And even by state

Confrontation, even a “heated” one, is quite possible. BUT the federal center, if determined, is quite capable of stopping this matter. There are a lot of ways. Up to the shooting of the leaders. I doubt that you have had to work on “mass riots”, when units of the Ministry of Internal Affairs act against a significantly larger crowd. There is a similar principle here. In addition, 10-15 years ago there was information on the Internet that camps were being built and mothballed in various states. It seems to be in preparation for internal unrest. I have not seen any information about their liquidation.

Quote: bayard

Trump will escalate not only for the sake of revenge and purge of the British elites in the USA and their agents, but also to prevent TMB

I’ve already said that he’s a peculiar type. Believing him means not respecting yourself. In one speech, he says that events in Ukraine must be stopped, and that he would not allow this to happen; in another, he demands an increase in arms supplies.

Quote: bayard

This moment has already passed

It's never too late to negotiate. It’s just that the conditions for bargaining, the “starting positions” will be different.

Quote: bayard

England, like France, is controlled by the Rothschilds, whose protege is Macron

Which does not cancel the rivalry between these countries.

Quote: bayard

Hungary is now the spokesman for the will and plans of the Vatican

Doubtful. A player (Hungary) of a level that does not correspond to the status of the Vatican.

Quote: bayard

And Germany stands completely apart - a non-subject state entity, occupied by the Anglo-Saxons, without a combat-ready army, weak-willed, but paying for all the wants of the Anglo-Saxons in Europe and NATO. .. Her fate is sad and most likely another Section awaits her...

I would say “pseudo-state”. And I agree. Although, some circles in Germany think differently.

Quote: bayard

The Russian Language is normally alive, it always pleases the ear.

No, no big deal. I don’t like it, but sometimes it’s more accurate and faster. Somewhat more capacious concepts. True, for the uninitiated, some of the meanings are lost.

Quote: bayard

How much does the Vatican have?

Do you know which bank in the world handles the largest amount of cash? Vatican Bank. At the same time, they also have one of the oldest security and intelligence services in the world. Including political. Not all issues can be resolved with bayonets.

Quote: bayard

They'll give dad a little bit of Europe

Who knows? Maybe he needs “a little bit”. The depth of planning, in my opinion, is directly related to the time of existence of the state/organization/institution.
A little bit now, a little bit in 50 years, a little bit in another 50 years. And by the way, I’m not sure that the Pope is interested in the territory. Possession of territory, in addition to rights, also entails responsibilities. The Vatican needs INFLUENCE.

Quote: bayard

But is it in our interests to let such an important procedure take its course? Isn’t it safer for our security to completely demolish the European elites - to the roots, and physically?

"Lead"? This is the same as “taking responsibility.” I think that this is not in our interests. To enter, at their request, as a police force, that is quite possible. Without taking responsibility for the destinies and living standards of the people there.

Quote: bayard

The phase is certainly hot and sluggish, but this is not a direct conflict between the armies of the Russian Federation and NATO.

Straight. But “sluggish” and very limited. On the other side, it is NATO that is fully present. Including active military personnel of NATO countries on the BS line. And corresponding statements were made by persons holding high government positions in the alliance member countries. The British Foreign Ministry and the German Foreign Ministry have ALREADY made statements through their ministers that they are in a state of war with us. That is, authorized persons (ministers) of precisely authorized institutions (Ministry of Foreign Affairs) declared war with us. That is, from the point of view of international law, we are actually at war with them. The fact that they were brainless chickens does not interest anyone. It was these chickens who were authorized by their countries, including to declare war on someone.

Quote: bayard

They can't start mobilizing right now - there will be panic and possibly even riots

And in the event of an open entry into hostilities, everything will be “quiet and peaceful”? Even when the coffins start pouring in? And where will they find the time for at least minimal training of the mobilized? We definitely won’t sit and smoke while waiting. And the issue with equipment, weapons, and ammunition is still not closed. Moreover, in the event of their full, open intervention, our actions on the territory of Ukraine will no longer be limited. Strikes will also be carried out against targets on the territory of their countries. Taking into account the fact that everything is seething there anyway, can you imagine the kind of boiling that will begin???

I apologize, I will periodically get lost for a day or two. Real is calling me with his unpleasant voice...

[0x0]

Damn, I completely forgot, but I don’t like making changes to already written text:
Manyu's bellicose hysteria + attempt to invade our regions. Is it possible that they had a “cunning plan”? If they managed to capture some locality with a large number of hostages and, precisely at the time of elections, demand the deployment of foreign troops on the territory of Ukraine...
By the way, the elections were held at a very decent level. I expected significantly more and louder incidents. Deepest respect to our security forces. And the people - the turnout was unprecedentedly high. The number of people who supported Putin is very high. We can say that a referendum was held on the people’s trust in the President and his course.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Manyu's bellicose hysteria + attempt to invade our regions. Is it possible that they had a “cunning plan”?

That was the plan and it looks like it was exactly that. But it looks like we knew everything in advance and were very well prepared. It looks like someone promptly suggested and gave the whole schedule, which means we are not alone in our business.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

We can say that a referendum was held on the people’s trust in the President and his course.

Yes, with such a rating you can decide on a lot, it would be for the good. Elite purge is necessary for a qualitative breakthrough in public administration.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Trump is a rather peculiar type, but I doubt that he is an idiot.

He is far from an idiot, but in his first term he simply did not have enough administrative resources - personnel to place in all key positions. And then he was definitely not ready to let blood. Now everything is different. And he has footage. And the supporters became structured. And most importantly, it seems that now he has many more supporters in all their many intelligence services. In the first term, this was not particularly observed.
“Everything that doesn’t kill us makes us stronger.” And he really became stronger. And the previous tricks that were played with him before will no longer work.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Now the states should be a “safe haven” where capital from Europe can flee. Trump cannot help but realize this. If elected, he doesn’t need any internal conflict.

I think he looks deeper and further. And this is a consolidated decision of the forces behind it. He consciously escalates, showing that the previous blackmail of the Civil War not only does not frighten him - he is ready for it. Neither black riots, nor riots of Latin American migrants, nor gangs of drug cartels brought into the country under the guise of migrants are not scary for him - he and his supporters are ready for anything and are very well organized. And I repeat - it seems that during this time he gained many supporters in the intelligence services. And he knows where the “Koshcheev’s Needle” is for the Democratic Party and the Biden administration.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The federal center, if determined, is quite capable of stopping this matter. There are a lot of ways. Up to the shooting of the leaders.

Only if this federal center has loyal and united intelligence services and law enforcement agencies. But in the USA today it’s not even close to that. There is a split in all power structures, not only in the states, but also at the federal level. To start shooting at leaders in such conditions is to invite fire from your own special services on yourself. And “on ourselves,” this means not only on the Biden administration and the Democratic Party, but on the unofficial financial power structures behind them. Not national.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

In addition, 10-15 years ago there was information on the Internet that camps were being built and mothballed in various states. It seems to be in preparation for internal unrest.

They were preparing for 2012, when something terrible was going to happen. It happened, but it was completely different.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Doubtful. A player (Hungary) of a level that does not correspond to the status of the Vatican.

The Vatican has no other supporting country, and its plans include the revival of the Austro-Hungarian Empire, perhaps under the guise of some kind of economic and military-political union after the collapse of the EU and NATO. Austria is too microscopic and sometimes very unique artists come out of it, which the world remembers and this memory will not do any good. So Hungary will be the “knot” for the revival of Austria-Hungary as a crystal in a saturated solution.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Do you know which bank in the world handles the largest amount of cash? Vatican Bank.

I don’t know how it is now, but I know that at one time the Vatican Bank was driven to bankruptcy by the concerted actions of the leading banking houses, and then the Rothschilds, Rockefellers and Co. became... shareholders of this bank. I don't think anything has changed much since those times. Perhaps this is why Popes kiss the hands of bankers, and not vice versa. Perhaps this is the intended public humiliation for the papal bank's attempt to capture the financial markets to the detriment of these respected families.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

they also have one of the oldest security and intelligence services in the world. Including political.

Yes, these are some order structures, but the same Order of Malta has very close ties with MI6. If there is some kind of competition in their environment, then this can be considered as intraspecific competition. The Vatican has relative economic stability solely due to... shareholders from the leading banking houses of this world. But there is influence, considerable, but it is part of a certain Choir.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Who knows? Maybe he needs “a little bit”.

Well, in principle, it’s the Catholic part of Europe... and so far without Poland, because the psheks are tightly under England and, out of habit, under the USA.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

"Lead"? This is the same as “taking responsibility.” I think that this is not in our interests.

There is no need to be so straightforward and direct. We have nothing to do with the expression of the will of freedom-loving and infringed migrants. And they dug up weapons for themselves in Africa. There are such minerals there. And local shamans know very well the all-conquering science of Class Struggle. And the theory of social justice. The French generals would rather lead a coup than go to war with Russia. De Gaulle’s grandson came to Moscow and recalled how his grandfather respected Stalin and how right Russia was in its Northwestern Military District. There is a lot of fuel for a revolutionary fire there - it will ignite on its own.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

To enter, at their request, as a police force, that is quite possible. Without taking responsibility for the destinies and living standards of the people there.

Firefighters??
No... after fulfilling all the tasks of the social revolution, it is of course possible... But it will be necessary to ASK us for this.
But qualified, competent white and LOYAL refugees from burning Europe can be accepted - we still need to rebuild and populate Siberia and the Far East. .. Let's drink them with vodka after stress, teach them the Russian language (the Great and Mighty), put them to useful work... And they will live and live the Russian Spirit.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The British Foreign Ministry and the German Foreign Ministry, through the mouths of their ministers, have ALREADY made statements that they are in a state of war with us.

This means that the evildoers will suffer torment for their deeds.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

in the event of their full, open intervention, our actions on the territory of Ukraine will no longer be limited. Strikes will also be carried out against targets on the territory of their countries. Taking into account the fact that everything is seething there anyway, can you imagine the kind of boiling that will begin???

How can one not understand this? But it seems that the owners of England and France are heading towards this. So you need to keep your nose to the wind and your gunpowder dry.
And take reasonable initiative.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

That was the plan and it looks like it was exactly that. But it looks like we knew everything in advance and were very well prepared. It looks like someone promptly suggested and gave the whole schedule, which means we are not alone in our business.

Either reconnaissance, already at a strategic level, worked, or a targeted leak on the other side, to disrupt plans and distance themselves from the situation. What exactly - we'll never know. The question is clearly not about our salaries, and certainly not out of our curiosity. Which is right. BUT the rotation of units in the border area was already carried out two weeks before the start of the events.

Quote: bayard

with such a rating you can decide on a lot, it would be for the good

The number of voters and the degree of support allows our Supreme Commander to act without regard to the opinion of a very vocal minority of “non-war fighters” and “frightened patriots.” Although Putin REALLY does not like radical actions, here, if there is no tightening of both domestic and foreign policies/actions, people may not understand.

Quote: bayard

Now everything is different. And he has footage. And the supporters became structured. And most importantly, it seems that now he has many more supporters in all their many intelligence services. In the first term, this was not particularly observed.

I agree, although with a bunch of reservations. For example, the FBI. If Trump comes, they will almost certainly be “bleeded” if there are no agreements. And without agreements, they can still do a lot of harm to him.

Quote: bayard

He consciously escalates, showing that the previous blackmail of the Civil War not only does not frighten him - he is ready for it

In general, everything is complicated there. Biden (those who use this puppet) clamped down on mining companies, but actively helped the military-industrial complex. At the same time, the “pressure” allowed large mining companies to increase their share of profits, and support, in many respects, backfired on investors in the military-industrial complex...
Local and international financiers, the military-industrial complex, mining companies, the real manufacturing sector, IT, illegal migrants and simply migrants, our own, extremely fragmented population, a mess in the law enforcement agencies, external threats/pressure and so on, so on, so on... Everyone has their own interests and his vision of resolving problems... I am sure that Trump is not an idiot. Once this cocktail explodes, who the hell can control the process. And one should not underestimate the capabilities of the state machine.

Quote: bayard

They were preparing for 2012, when something terrible was going to happen

The resources prepared for certain probable events have not gone away and are carefully preserved. Perhaps they are multiplying.

Quote: bayard

The Vatican has no other support country

Why does he need a “supporting country” and not a “supporting group of people from many countries”?

Quote: bayard

his plans include the revival of the Austro-Hungarian Empire

Well, in the context of events, most likely not the “Austro-Hungarian”, but the “Hungarian-Austrian”, with the squeezing of part of the territory of some neighboring states. And not only Ukraine.
By the way, pay attention to the “behavior” of those states that have precisely imperial experience, adjusted for access to relevant resources and the absence of occupation. From our point of view, their behavior is the most understandable and sane.

Quote: bayard

There is no need to be so straightforward and direct. We have nothing to do with the expression of the will of freedom-loving and infringed migrants. And they dug up weapons for themselves in Africa.

I'm not talking about migrants, but about the indigenous population of these countries. If we take on the role of leader, we automatically take on some responsibilities. I’m not sure that we need it and that we are ready for it.
As for “we dug up the weapons ourselves,” representatives of English-speaking countries did a good job there. Yes, and they continue to work. Even the weapons/ammunition that are supplied to the BU, not all reach the border. And sooner or later, it will “come out”...

Quote: bayard

Firefighters??
No... after fulfilling all the tasks of the social revolution, it is of course possible... But it will be necessary to ASK us for this.
But qualified, competent white and LOYAL refugees from burning Europe can be accepted - we still need to rebuild and populate Siberia and the Far East. ..

Mass relocation, despite the demographic situation, is not in our interests. Limited, “targeted”, according to the competencies we need, quite. But not massively. We, our society, still need to “digest” the population of the returned territories, but here it is? There are stupidly more of them than us. And such a massive “injection” cannot change, but WILL CHANGE our collective “mentality”. Moreover, to cede the territory of Western Europe to a potential enemy? With a rapidly growing population? Are you sure that the European Caliphate is exactly what we need???

Quote: bayard

How can one not understand this? But it seems that the owners of England and France are heading towards this

The hosts are leading France into direct conflict with us. England categorically does not want to participate in this. At the same time, ALL significant countries in NATO have already spoken out about non-participation in such a NATO. These are “sovereign” decisions, outside the NATO bloc. Why is that? France is one of the few countries possessing nuclear weapons. BUT the amount of this nuclear weapons in France, and the number of warheads that we will need to use on the territory of the paddling pools to destroy their potential, most likely will not cause fatal changes on a planetary scale. But England will remain the only leader in Western Europe.
The frog-eaters have already estimated their probable participation in the group at 20 snouts. Unpleasant, but not fatal. Especially considering the fact that there will be no radical changes in the “zoo” of weapons of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, just as there will be no significant changes in the number of air defense and air forces. They won't pull it off now. But the consequences for the French leadership will definitely be very sad. And quickly. Their participation is more threatening not on the territory of BU, but in Transnistria. That's where they can hurt us.
Events at Crocus... My sincere condolences to all those affected.
Why now? Because they “relaxed” after the elections. What did it demonstrate? The fact that both society and regional and local authorities still do not understand the extent of the threats. We haven't mobilized yet. Who is the organizer? Even judging by the statements, including those from the beginning of March, according to the footage of the interrogation of the captured prisoners, without options, the BU special services worked under the “mask” of Wahhabis. What will happen? I really hope that our authorities, and first of all society, realize at least something. Countering such threats must first and foremost depend on everyone. Changes in migration policy may occur. But the West, or rather part of the Western countries, can use this situation to “get off” the topic of supporting Ukraine, without losing face in the eyes of their own population.
By the way, the USA demands that Ukraine stop attacks on oil refineries in Russia. Because these blows (certainly unpleasant for us, but not causing serious harm) entail an increase in prices at gas stations in the USA. Why? Petroleum products from Russia are not supplied to the EU, but they are actively purchased by Turkey and Saudi Arabia for domestic consumption. They supply the petroleum products they produce locally to the EU. The failure of refineries in Russia leads to a decrease in supplies to these countries, which, accordingly, reduce supplies to the EU. This entails an increase in prices on the exchange. Accordingly, the price in the USA increases))) oops... In Ukraine, the leaders believed in their exclusivity, and having lost the shores, they sent direct rulers through the forest... oops again...
They, the “steering” Ukrainians, must either be removed or thrown off the balance sheet. Having taken off their maintenance, they receive a bonus - with taking control of the territory, we will have a significant increase in expenses for the maintenance of this territory, for counter-guerrilla warfare, for the maintenance of the population living there and you py and dy. Therefore, it seems to me that we should still leave a “piece” of Ukraine. Preferably isolated from the sea and from Western countries. Lubo, a piece isolated from the sea, but such that, over time, it will be absorbed by its neighbors.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The rotation of units in the border area was carried out two weeks before the start of the events.

Yes, these events were expected and met with dignity. So they were warned.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Although Putin REALLY does not like radical actions, here, if there is no tightening of both domestic and foreign policies/actions, people may not understand.

After Crocus, all this riffraff can rightfully be classified as accomplices of terrorists. And deal with them accordingly.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

For example, the FBI. If Trump comes, they will almost certainly be “bleeded” if there are no agreements.

I think there have been lively negotiations there for several months now. And if the inadequate people try to do shit there, they will be cleared out by at least 50% of the total number.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Trump is not an idiot. Once this cocktail explodes, who the hell can control the process. And one should not underestimate the capabilities of the state machine.

The state machine there was divided within itself. So if the Democrats try to use it, they will receive not only from half of the states (which each have their own machines), but also such a split in the executive component of the federal level law enforcement agencies that they will be ground into mincemeat. The US now has a very simple choice:
- either they elect Trump and he restores order and punishes the scoundrels,
- or by committing another forgery or usurpation, they will get the most crazy Civil War, which will burn the democratic camp down to the last floor polisher and flush the ashes down the drain.

So their choice is simple.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

, in the context of events, most likely not the “Austro-Hungarian”, but the “Hungarian-Austrian”, with the squeezing out of part of the territory of some neighboring states.

Exactly . They will also take over Croatia (possibly dividing it with Serbia), part of Romania (the other part will legally go to the true owner - Moldova), and some other little things after the collapse of the EU and NATO. And Dad will be happy.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

If we take on the role of leader, we automatically take on some responsibilities. I’m not sure that we need it and that we are ready for it.

We don't need to go to Western Europe at all. But Eastern by definition is ours. And Central. Let's turn it into a demilitarized zone. A kind of "no man's land".
And in this case, the idea of ​​​​the revival of Austria-Hungary will help us. But you will need to monitor them very strictly.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Mass relocation, despite the demographic situation, is not in our interests. Limited, “targeted”, according to the competencies we need, quite.

That's exactly what I'm talking about.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Are you sure that the European Caliphate is exactly what we need???

Do you propose to send troops to Western Europe and receive there “from both the Reds and the Whites”? Of course, I’m not delighted with the Caliphate there, but if they have such a plan... We won’t have enough care for everyone.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The frog-eaters have already estimated their probable participation in the group at 20 snouts. Unpleasant, but not fatal.

In fact, these are concerted actions to force Russia to a Plow Truce for 2 years. I don't think it will work. Just as they hunted “Leopards” and “Abrams” before, so they will now hunt the French, Poles and other Romanians.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

It seems to me that we should still leave a “piece” of Ukraine. Preferably isolated from the sea and from Western countries.

I think that some piece can NOT be annexed to Russia for a while and all the inadequate and disloyal people can be deported there. But this territory must also be under our control and used as a transit point for further deportations. Not a single disloyal person who has stained himself with Ukrainians should remain on the territory of the Northern Black Sea Coast. Simply deport EVERYONE. Some to the West, some to Siberia - to settle the country.
It is not permissible to transfer any territories of our (and this is our) land to anyone. The only exception is Hungary, to which its region can be returned. No Poland and Romania! These are enemies. But it is unacceptable to strengthen the enemy.

[0x0]

Quote: bayard

Yes, these events were expected and met with dignity. So you were warned

Another curious point: the border area is clearly saturated with agents of the opposing side. Only the rotation that was carried out definitely turned out to be a surprise for them. Moreover, if counterintelligence were very active on our part, this could alert our opponents (although their probable self-confidence/arrogance should not be discarded at all). That is, most likely, a very high level of “literacy” on the part of the performers. Including the rank and file. Two weeks and not allow leaks about the rotation?!

Quote: bayard

After Crocus, all this riffraff can rightfully be classified as accomplices of terrorists. And deal with them accordingly.

Most likely not “accomplices”, but “a state with a terrorist regime.” In this case, ANY interaction will be stopped, including in the economy (hello, the State Customs Service of Ukraine) and, I really hope that with convincing facts, we will achieve the same from other countries. Including Western ones. At the same time, this situation may allow them, Western countries, to refuse open support for BU, while saving face. They will come up with some kind of explanation for their electorate. BUT this does not exclude their hidden support for radicals to conduct sabotage activities against us. They can supply small arms explosives almost endlessly. These are not expensive “heavy” weapons and do not form 50% (actually more) of the BU budget.

Quote: bayard

The state machine there was divided in itself

A very complex topic. I doubt that at our level of awareness it is possible to make absolutely realistic forecasts. The contradictions are “above the roof.” We don’t need their civil war. Then everyone will have problems. BIG problems, including the need for external control over their nuclear weapons and dangerous technological objects. This is not the Union and not Russia. Different mentality. Trump will avoid blood. He doesn't need a bomb under his ass. BUT if something goes “wrong”, the current administration (puppeteers) still have the resources and determination to at least try to keep the situation under control. Whether it will work out or not is the question.

Quote: bayard

Exactly . They will also take over Croatia (possibly dividing it with Serbia), part of Romania (the other part will legally go to the true owner - Moldova), and some other little things after the collapse of the EU and NATO. And Dad will be happy.

He will be happy with a significant increase in influence in the rest of Western Europe. And “Hungarian-Austria” critically needs access to the sea.

Quote: bayard

We don't need to go to Western Europe at all. But Eastern by definition is ours

We return to the “inter-bloc” borders of the Warsaw Pact Organization period. What, in principle, was stated in “Putin’s ultimatum” and in relation to such concepts as “sphere of interests” and “zones of influence”. The fate of Poland, or rather the life of its population, in some medium-term perspective, seems sad. As well as the fate of the Baltic Tiger population. An analogue is a former kept wife abandoned without a livelihood, deprived of property and without any useful skills...

Quote: bayard

And Central. Let's turn it into a demilitarized zone. A kind of "no man's land".

Predpolye. Perhaps with our military outposts subsequently located there. Because it is absolutely impossible to leave this space without control. Confrontation will still occur, albeit at the level of the special services. And the farther this confrontation is from the borders of the metropolis, the better. This is also why the European Caliphate is unacceptable to us. If events develop the way I think, then a change of governments in Western European countries is very likely, to ones that are more sane, from our point of view, followed, at some stage, by an active movement of radical Islamists. It is in our interests, solely at the request of legitimate governments, to carry out a police operation there. Otherwise we will have a VERY serious threat.

Quote: bayard

In fact, these are concerted actions to force Russia to a truce for 2 years

It's in their best interest. Moreover, two years is not enough. They fall woefully short. I already said that the prospect of their readiness is at least 2-3 years. Good thing they need more. Only for the development of industry/energy for at least 3-5 years. And they realized this very well.
By the way, this year, in terms of energy supply, they are struggling with a very likely and very big ass. Especially if the summer is hot and windy.

Quote: bayard

I think that some piece can NOT be annexed to Russia for a while and all the inadequate and disloyal people can be deported there. But this territory must also be under our control.

Precisely as a place for the expulsion of non-loyal populations, for “writing off” all their debts, of course, under our military control.
But I don’t agree with the term “attach”. TO RETURN.

Quote: bayard

No Poland and Romania! These are enemies. But it is unacceptable to strengthen the enemy.

The appearance of Lemberg in Poland will be their real victory. Complex topic. On the one hand, it seems that the West’s recognition of Lemberg as part of Poland will also solve the issue of recognizing our returned territories, will “load” Poland with “digesting” this territory for 100 years, and will significantly weaken it economically. On the other hand, what do we care about their recognition? They may not even recognize the law of universal gravitation. This will not make them flutter like butterflies. And resolving the issue in terms of “Lviv is not Lemberg” will be a good, sobering slap in the face precisely for traditional Russophobia.
By the way, why is this issue always considered in the light of Poland? Belarus also has the right to declare its historical claims! After all, it is also part of the former Grand Duchy of Lithuania and Russia. And encouraging and strengthening an ally is a very correct action. Especially against the backdrop of the fact that on the Globe it’s not very good with free territories.

[bayard]

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Two weeks and not allow leaks about the rotation?!

Perhaps the rotation was passed off as an ordinary planned one, because it seems that they didn’t really increase the grouping - they changed the quality of the composition, the conscripts to the MTR. But the operation was really carried out brilliantly.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

Most likely not “accomplices”, but “a state with a terrorist regime.”

I meant the domestic “anti-war” liberal movement and other “sympathizers” and “trans-Ukrainians”. Now there will be a legal basis for considering them either terrorists or accomplices of such and subjecting them to maximum terms of correctional labor.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

(hello to the State Customs Service of Ukraine) and I really hope that with convincing facts, we will achieve the same from other countries. Including Western ones.

Now Western countries fall under the category of “sponsor of terrorism” and accomplice thereof.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

this situation may allow them, Western countries, to refuse open support for BU, while saving face.

Given the fact that they never found money for a used one, perhaps this will be a lifesaver for them. Will they use it?

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

We don’t need their civil war. Then everyone will have problems. BIG problems, including the need for external control over their nuclear weapons

If this is the only alternative to nuclear war, then it would be better for them than for us. In fact, this will be Karma (Punishing Mother) for them for everything they have done. And then we’ll see how to take control of their nuclear weapons and dangerous objects. Perhaps we will form international Law Enforcement Forces - from Iran, North Korea, Syria, China... and of course we will - as without us.
But it would be better if Trump took control of everything.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

And “Hungarian-Austria” critically needs access to the sea.

Well, let's give them Romanian Constanta or some Croatian port. We're not some kind of animals.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The fate of Poland, or rather the life of its population, in some medium-term perspective, seems sad. As well as the fate of the Baltic Tiger population.

We will return the Baltics. We will return Russian names to its cities. We will deport the disloyal population, strengthen it with military garrisons and an influx of “Russian blood” - to restore the economy, fisheries, agriculture, port infrastructure, and enterprises. The climate there is mild, people will flock there. But these will already be simply areas of the Baltic Military District.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The European Caliphate is unacceptable to us.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

It is in our interests, solely at the request of legitimate governments, to carry out a police operation there. Otherwise we will have a VERY serious threat.

Then it will be necessary to introduce the Coalition Forces of Law and Order there. This must be an International Police Operation. Maybe even Special.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

two years is not enough. They fall woefully short. I already said that the prospect of their readiness is at least 2-3 years.

They have been given the task of achieving a truce from Russia and preparing for war in 2 years. Nobody simply gives them more. I hope we will not give them either a truce or time to mobilize. And without a second hand they are ineffective against us.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

But I don’t agree with the term “attach”. TO RETURN.

Well, I made a careless mistake.

Quote: Pr0kh0zhiy

The appearance of Lemberg in Poland will be their real victory. Complex topic.

Poland should not receive a single inch. And Lukashenko shares the same opinion.
As for the transfer of Lvov to him... he would have to cut off the Vilna region - the southern part of Lithuania... But together with Lvov and Ivano-Frankivsk and Rivne, he may not be able to digest it. Here you need to look carefully and think. There are several opinions about Lviv, up to the transfer of it to Slovakia (or Slovenia?), but not immediately and on conditions. And already during the partition of Poland.
In any case, we first need to RELEASE, and then we’ll decide.

[woodcutter]

You are very right. Extensive and to the point.

[mvbmvbmvb]

And we feed. A whole army of strangers to us by citizenship, nationality, culture, etc. oligarchs, officials, fleachers, showmen, “stars” and other parasites and hidden and obvious enemies. Who rob us and take our wealth for 30 years to “themselves” overseas, to their holes in London, Nice, California...

[Slon1978]

Following your logic, which has little to do with the laws of economics, any investment (for example, in a plant for the production of washing machines) leads to an increase in the money supply, then to inflation and therefore harmful. What is absurd, because the economies of all countries of the world FIGHT to attract such investments and their growth is considered an indicator of the health of the economy.

[alexmach]

any investment (for example, in a plant for the production of washing machines) leads to an increase in the money supply, then to inflation and therefore harmful.

No you shouldn't. Not just any investment. It is important where these investments come from. Where do you think investments of 40% of the budget can come from?

What is absurd, because... the economies of all countries of the world are FIGHTING to attract such investments and their growth is considered an indicator of the well-being of the economy

Well, yes, everyone is struggling, and no one thought to just print +40% of the money supply and just invest in what we need... Well, almost no one guessed.

[Slon1978]

It's good that you are not a finance minister with such a cavernous understanding of the tools for managing a modern economy. I will tell you, apparently, the secret of the sources of increasing funding for the defense sector in 2024: 1) additional budget revenues (introduction of new taxes, increase in revenue from existing ones), 2) reduction of other budget expenditures ("reduction of expenditures on general government issues, the national economy, physical education and sports, on the media and interbudgetary transfers of a general nature"), the latter is especially important and 3) internal and external borrowings (now, of course, mostly internal). By the way, there is where and from whom to borrow - previously, excess profits of many private, and not only, enterprises were withdrawn to Cypriot and other accounts, tens of billions of dollars left the economy, even state leasing companies financed foreign enterprises, now all the money remains inside . Everything has its price, but you apparently only know about “printing money.” The economy is still somewhat more complicated.

[alexmach]

internal and external borrowings (now, of course, mostly internal)

This is exactly it

you apparently only know about “printing money”

Just a little flavored with financial instruments.

If you don’t know, then talk further about “cave understanding”

[0x0]

I agree with you (never an expert, not an economist, and many other things “not”), only you are missing another source of income for our budget - the actual abolition of the “budget rule” by the West. This is when a significant part of the income from the sale of our resources remained in their banks Now this VERY big money is coming to us.
By the way, this (the disappearance of significant funds from working capital) also causes problems in their economy.

[Slon1978]

Moreover, I believe that investing in a military plant (let it be a plant for the production of tank diesel engines) is even more beneficial for the economy than investing in a civilian plant (let it be a plant producing washing machines). And I'm ready to prove it. But first, I would still like to hear from you arguments in favor of the conclusion to which you ...have reached. About the harm of investments and its connection with inflation.

[alexmach]

Moreover, I think

Well, you can basically assume anything, some people say in all seriousness that the earth is flat. And they also come up with arguments for this.

If anything, I never say that there is no need to invest in defense factories, especially during war. I say that this has its own price and you still have to pay it.

[Alexey Lantukh]

We need a reasonable balance in the development of the military-industrial complex. It should not be too little, but also not too much, because... too much is not a rational waste of national wealth. However, in conditions of war, and the current military-industrial complex is a war, the volume of the military-industrial complex should be as large as possible. There is no time to calculate imbalances in the economy.

[alexmach]

There is no time to calculate imbalances in the economy

“There’s no time for calculations” is one thing, but it’s a completely different thing to sing “everything is only for the better, the economy will only grow”

[Alexey Lantukh]

“There’s no time for calculations” is one thing, but it’s a completely different thing to sing “everything is only for the better, the economy will only grow”

To rejoice at the growth of Russia's seemingly healthy economy at the expense of the military-industrial complex for domestic consumption and in terms of weapons is, in my opinion, an indicator of the incompetence of some people.

[glestwid]

Well, and political lackeys at the same time)

[svp67]

I really hope that the times of the USSR with its super-duper secrecy are over and that what is being developed and implemented in the military sphere will begin to enter the civilian sector in a simplified version.

[Vita vko]

Quote: svp67

is being developed and implemented in the military sphere, and in a simplified version will begin to arrive in the civilian sector.

Here we should rather talk about new technologies, which should be transferred to commercial enterprises under certain conditions. The problem is that the Russian Ministry of Defense spent huge budget funds on these developments and, by law, cannot simply transfer it to anyone. And military-industrial complex enterprises will try to maintain a monopoly on new technology until the last moment.
The problem must first be solved at the legislative level. Then talk about the development of the civilian sector through dual-use developments.

[ved_med12]

Many “dual” purpose enterprises...They work both in the military-industrial complex and in the civilian sector.

[AUL]

Surplus income from defense orders is invested in updating the fleet of machine tools and other infrastructure. When the special operation is over, a wide range of companies will have a powerful production base. Quite competitive in both domestic and foreign markets.

Yes of course! Those who produced tanks will drive washing machines, those who produced shells will produce incubators for agriculture, the aviation industry will drive Lada-Kalina...
Anyone who is at least a little familiar with production knows that in a specialized production, simply switching to another product model (of the same profile) means a long time, a lot of money for re-equipping production, searching for new suppliers and related suppliers, a long-term decrease in product output (hence , and profits) and in general a big hemorrhoid for the enterprise. So, rebuilding a tank plant to produce tractors is easier to build a new tractor plant. Besides, if tanks are needed again, should we rebuild production? Or keep production lines and warehouses of raw materials, components and equipment for tank production idle but ready? It will be quite expensive, however!
Yes, it is good that a wide range of companies will have a powerful production base. But we also need to understand that the defense industry is, by definition, a purely unprofitable area of ​​the economy. And production conversion is a very time-consuming, costly and not always economically feasible thing. At one time they tried to release pots in the defense industry - it didn’t work...

[GGV]

This means automobile factories, for example: KamAZ, UAZ, GAZ and the same Ural. And you never know how many other military-industrial complex enterprises can produce and make money on civilian products.

[Good afternoon]

During war, money doesn't matter at all. If you want to win, of course.

[AUL]

Quote: good_day

During war, money doesn't matter at all.

It is during war that money plays the most important role, especially hard currency. EMNIP, Napoleon said: “For war you need 3 things - money, money and more money!”
In fact, they were just talking about post-war conversion industry.

[nedgen]

Quote from AUL

Quote: good_day

During war, money doesn't matter at all.

It is during war that money plays the most important role, especially hard currency. EMNIP, Napoleon said: “For war you need 3 things - money, money and more money!”
In fact, they were just talking about post-war conversion industry.

One small clarification. Napoleon quoted Machiaveli.

[Good afternoon]

A tiny clarification, Machiavelli.

[Good afternoon]

That's what I meant. It's not worth saving. Let's live until victory, and then we'll see.

[runway-1]

Alexander Yurievich!
In general, this is how it is; a significant increase in spending on defense production (and defense in general) is a double-edged sword. Everything that is then spent (spent) on the armed struggle, and not on sale abroad, is dead capital, so to speak. Therefore, a reasonable balance is very important in everything...

[AUL]

Quote: WFP-1

Therefore, a reasonable balance is very important in everything...

Agree! Unfortunately, we can only talk about balance in a period of peace. In wartime, everything is for the front, everything is for victory! But every war ends, in the end, in peace, and then the problem of transferring industry to peaceful lines arises. On the one hand, post-war devastation and poverty require maximum output of civilian products, and on the other, remember the situation of the USSR immediately after the Great Patriotic War! If they had relaxed with the defense industry then, they would have devoured the famous mother’s former allies! Therefore, balance here is a very delicate and ambiguous thing!

[runway-1]

Of course, however, problems should be solved through armed struggle only in cases where there is no other way (so that a military-political adventure does not happen). And in this sense too: “balance here is a very delicate and ambiguous thing!”

[Alexey Lantukh]

In general, the Moscow Region produces little. It purchases military products according to its budget.

[Saxahorse]

Quote: svp67

I really hope that the times of the USSR with its super-duper secrecy are over and that what is being developed and implemented in the military sphere will begin to enter the civilian sector in a simplified version.

A simplified howitzer gun with a caliber of 152 mm will certainly be useful in agriculture.
Although recently, in the world, the opposite trend has been observed. The massive impact of advanced commercial technologies on military affairs, both in terms of a sharp reduction in the cost of weapons long known to the military, and the emergence of completely new weapons.

[vvn_vl]

Commissions of “experts” wouldn’t prevent them from working

[T-100]

This is all great, for the time being. It will end and that's what then. Infusions into the military-industrial complex will be curtailed, the West will begin to lift sanctions, and naturally ours will immediately rush to buy everything abroad, since we essentially have no protectionism. And everything will return to normal.

[shikin]

“Nothing will return to normal.” The world has already changed and continues to change, and all this is irrevocable. New relationships are being built between countries, new financial and commodity flows. Even if all sanctions are lifted now, even then history cannot be turned back. This is also impossible, just as it is impossible to revive all those who died in the Northern Military District.
Serious multi-year projects have been launched in industry - in aircraft and rocket engineering, in engine building, in the production of microelectronics, etc. Freezing and curtailing these projects would mean a loss of sovereignty, and not only in technical terms.

[T-100]

“Nothing will return to normal.”

I will answer you this way. Have you read the work of Nikolai Leskov - Lefty? This work was written in 1881 and essentially reflects the state of that era. I won’t retell it, you will be interested in reading it. And if you read it and transfer it to the historical events of our era, then I think you will understand that we are returning to this circle, or rather the rake, with enviable tenacity.

[shikin]

I've read a lot of things in my life.
And those who stand still do not step on the rake. And the fact that similar mistakes and problems are repeated does not mean that everything “returns to normal.” As they say, history moves not in a circle, but in a spiral.
In addition, humans have not changed biologically over the last 10 thousand years (and maybe much more). I didn’t become smarter, but I accumulated a lot of knowledge and learned to use it (in general, this may have little relevance to an individual). And every person makes a lot of mistakes in his life (without this, no learning is possible), often repeating the mistakes of his fathers, grandfathers, and great-grandfathers.

[T-100]

And those who stand still do not step on the rake.

I don’t agree, the country has been marking time for the last decades, but it is stepping on a rake, most likely with one foot in one rake and the other in another.

As they say, history moves not in a circle, but in a spiral.

It depends on how to draw this spiral and where to look at it from. Draw the shock absorber on a plane, side view is a spiral - top view is a circle.

I didn’t become smarter, but I accumulated a lot of knowledge and learned to use it

Someone saves, and someone degrades.
We’ve become attached to the expression “back to normal”, good. Historical retrospective: in the West, for several centuries, Russia in all its guises (and we change the state shell almost like gloves) is perceived as an enemy (except when it is unprofitable), but the line remains unchanged. For us, the West is our friend, foreign countries will help us, then the West is our enemy, and so on in a circle.

[shikin]

the country has been marking time for the last decades

- well, if you don’t see any changes since 2000 or even 2010, then I’m sorry.

[T-100]

- well, if you don’t see any changes since 2000 or even 2010, then I’m sorry.

Are you talking about plaster??? Yes, it has changed for the better, but what is the content? Has the vector of state policy changed somehow? Vector of economic development? The basis of the economy: extracted, sent abroad, received foreign currency, bought what was needed. Since the beginning of the inauguration (the very first), GDP has been talking about independence, that it is necessary to move away from the raw materials economy, to increase the volume of industrial goods with added value in the export structure. To be technologically independent, but what is the end result? What do we have with population growth and its structure: as it was at the time of the collapse, the population was 146+ million people, for 35 years it has remained the same, only the structure is changing and not for the better, the indigenous population is dying out, being replaced by newcomers. Your changes that you are talking about are supposedly not visible to me: new buildings, cities have become more beautiful, new VAZ cars, about simple wages (doubtful, but okay), that they are paid on time - this is all good. 35 years of the Russian Federation, count 35 years from the formation of the USSR and compare. Where did you start, what did you go through and what did you come to over these 35 years? One country, through civil war, famine, repression and war, became an industrial giant and became a superpower. The other is a fragment of a superpower, which is not even able to produce “overshoes” (this is an ironic remark, if anything, and not a statement of fact, although who knows what will happen next)

[Dedok]

This summer full production should start. Until this moment, a considerable part of the Urals were completed Chinese bridges. After this, who will say that money for the military-industrial complex goes exclusively for military expenses?

author, what are you talking about?
Did you start launching Urals only in modern times?
and in the Soviet - also Chinese bridges?
why write this nonsense - this is not the audience

[Torukmakto]

It’s such nonsense that the Ural Automobile Plant has allocated 2021 BILLION in 15 to localize the production of truck axles. Because, suddenly, I bought them from China after the “optimization of production” in the tenth years.
Before you spit bile, you should first check what the author is writing about.

[Stirbjorn]

The release of the Su-34 fighter-bomber and the Tu-214 passenger aircraft have completely different effects on the economy.

The example is not entirely successful. Taking into account the sharp increase in breakdowns on civil aircraft, due to the lack of spare parts and normal service, the production of passenger aircraft is already a necessity. Here, in general, you can lose an entire industry - God forbid, planes start crashing, our airlines simply won’t have anything to fly with

[Anton Yu]

Once there was an article and they wrote that the country stopped producing 122-mm shells several years ago.

[smart fellow]

The country stopped producing 122-mm shells several years ago.

But in the DPRK the main caliber is 122mm, there are photos with various North Korean self-propelled guns of 122mm caliber. The 152mm self-propelled gun was first seen at the parade only in 2018; the rest of the 152mm self-propelled guns were towed. There was a note with a photo of a railway train where outdated towed 122mm howitzers were being transported from the Far East to the Northern Military District zone. So everything is fine with 122mm shells. According to satellite intelligence, South Korean intelligence claims that last year alone, more than 2 containers were delivered to Russia by sea, which is equivalent to 000 2mm shells. And there is also a railway, and if you transport it at night, the satellites will not detect it. For the DPRK, supplies of military equipment are very profitable because This is the most “living” industry in North Korea and, in conditions of a shortage of foreign currency, makes it possible to obtain the necessary resources from Russia. Therefore, until the SVO ends, they will supply to the maximum, naturally without compromising their own safety.

[Zoer]

Good article, optimistic!!! But there is one BUT that cannot be ignored. This BUT is called the CENTRAL BANK and its managers. With a key rate of 16%, without preferential rates for ALL production workers, there can be no talk of any growth in civilian production and technology. Add to this high tax rates and energy tariffs, and in general everything becomes sad.
The current growth of the military-industrial complex is associated only with manual control and the direct injection of oil funds into this industry. This, of course, is not bad, as an emergency measure, but in the future, if nothing radically changes, no fundamental changes will occur in our raw materials economy.

[alexoff]

This is some kind of historical scourge for us, we don’t know how to monetize victories

[astra wild2]

Good afternoon colleagues, 2023 “the year of mobilization and restructuring of production” Bismarck said: “Russians harness for a long time” (c)

[Andrey Moskvin]

The release of the Su-34 fighter-bomber and the Tu-214 passenger aircraft have completely different effects on the economy.
The existence of the first (among other things) allows the second to earn money.

[Sotskiy]

We will not know the true growth rates of the Russian defense industry in figures and facts during the period of the special military operation.

That's right.

.Russia will strengthen its defense capabilities against the backdrop of instability in the world. The President noted that to achieve this goal, it is planned to upgrade the main types of weapons by 2020% by 70, Interfax reports.
This statement was made today, February 23, 2013, by Russian President Vladimir Putin....

In January 2021, Shoigu said:

“Today everyone - some with anger, some with approval - understands and states that the Russian army has more than 70%, or more precisely, almost 71% of modern weapons and equipment. This is the highest percentage among all the armies of the world,” Shoigu said on Wednesday at a meeting with the team of the Rostvertol company.

From the author:

...We can say that 2022 was a time of forced and emergency decisions, 2023 - mobilization and restructuring of production, 2024 - a systematic and large-scale build-up of military production....

Am I the only one with logic, or how should I perceive the above statements?

[Jacques sekavar]

By decree of the President, in 18 strategic supplies of raw materials were made, and in 22 the SVO began.
The Russian Armed Forces did not bang their heads against the wall and bypassed the positions of the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the DPR-LPR that had been built up over the years, liberated significant territories and reached the outskirts of Kyiv in Boryspil.
The summer counter-offensive of the Ukrainian Armed Forces pushed back the Russian Armed Forces and the war took on a positional character.
The Russian Armed Forces had problems with ammunition, which resulted in an armed march of the Wagner PMC to Moscow.
Half a year later, the SVO announced partial mobilization, removed 300 thousand specialists from the economy and critically aggravated the personnel problem. The use of UAVs against the President of Venezuela and the assassination of General Soleimani with the help of a UAV did not lead to conclusions about the massive use of UAVs among the troops, which indicates miscalculations by the Advanced Weapons Directorate and the General Staff.
The transition of the military industry of the Russian Federation to round-the-clock operation allowed the Russian economy to reach 1st place in Europe and maintain a balance with the supply of NATO weapons to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but in the event of a transition of NATO industry to a military footing, the existing balance will be disrupted and not in favor of the Russian Federation.
On the one hand, there emerges a mutual desire of NATO and the Russian Federation not to take matters to extremes and to end the war with a separate truce, but on the other hand, NATO is tempted to exhaust the Russian Federation economically.

[Zoer]

Quote: Jacques Sekavar

but if NATO industry switches to a military footing, the existing balance will be disrupted and not in favor of the Russian Federation.

This is certainly true. But they still need to move on to these military footings. But how will Europe, for example, do this if they now don’t even have enough money to subsidize their own farmers to compensate for expensive fuel and fertilizer? How will they promote their production if right now this same production is fleeing from Europe to where there are better resources? How will they promote production in the USA if they themselves transferred it all to China, and put it on their rust belt no worse than ours?
In general, I am confident that they can do this, theoretically, if they can explain to their population why they need to tighten their belts very much.
Well, the icing on the cake here is the most likely outcome of all these promotions of the military-industrial complex, namely the nullification of all this with the help of thermonuclear, and from all sides.

[Ivan Seversky]

Everyone forgets about the multiplier effect, based on the fact that entire clusters of subcontractors are involved in the production of tanks and other military equipment. Many of which can now invest abundant proceeds in expanding production and major modernization.

A civilian truck carries cargo that creates additional added value. A military truck also consumes diesel and consumables as part of maintenance, but that’s where its participation in the economy ends.

When the special operation is over, a wide range of companies will have a powerful production base. Quite competitive in both domestic and foreign markets. And this is not to mention the reputation of Russian weapons, the growth of exports of which is inevitable after the victorious end of the Northern Military District.

When the special operation is over, all the deferred problems will emerge: crumbling utility networks, underfunded healthcare, education, roads. And also the restoration of new territories...
It would be good if the military-industrial complex is financed at the level of 2021.
Foreign customers? Half of the military-industrial complex's revenue came from the sale of aircraft, here SVO can be considered as anti-advertising - as far as I know, not a single aircraft has crossed the ribbon since April 2022. The fleet is also anti-advertising, but from the same submarines, for example, Severodvinsk lives.
T-90m tanks performed well, Lancets performed very well, but they are relatively cheap.
Every year it will be more and more difficult for Russia to return to the arms market - competitors will occupy the vacated niches and they will have to be conquered.

I would like to believe that it will be different, but this is the realistic scenario.

[runway-1]

Yes, Ivan, everything is logical...

[Glagol1]

The author correctly raises the question - the growth of the military-industrial complex is dragging forward a whole universe of related industries. One condition is important - the released equipment should not be knocked out, at the expense of the enemy or due to low quality, otherwise you simply won’t get enough. If the equipment is reliable, then there will be enough money, and the army’s equipment will be normal. We need to increase where we are lagging behind, communications, target designation, space. The author is also right that the growth of the military-industrial complex stimulates the development of high-tech industries. The article is a big plus!

[Alexander Tkachenko]

This is not to say that the armored personnel carrier cannot earn money.
Remember 2 years ago Fr. Russian (Vladivostok) was cut off from the ground due to icing of the bridge.
If there had been an equipment storage base and 100-300 armored personnel carriers on the island, there would have been no problems. The roof of an armored personnel carrier holds up well against falling ice, and driver training and equipment storage are the responsibility of local authorities. Just give me the money.

[Fangaro]

... can now invest abundant proceeds in expanding production and major modernization.

Purely “military” enterprises attract hundreds and thousands of contractors, who are not always engaged exclusively in defense issues. Surplus income from defense orders is invested in updating the fleet of machine tools and other infrastructure. When the special operation is over, a wide range of companies will have a powerful production base.

Eugene! Your article is just a balm among a huge amount of criticism.

But about quotes from the article...
The proceeds can be invested in expanding production if there is profit in this revenue.
If there is excess profit from fulfilling a defense order, or as you write, excess income, then this sounds strange.
Federal procurement laws, tenders, auctions... This is to save state funds. If some private owner, Abramovich, for example, won the right to supply food for all Rosgvardeytsev, then he offered the lowest price while maintaining the requirements for quality, regularity of fulfillment, places of shipment, etc.
I'm exaggerating, but something like this...
After the contract is concluded, it was signed by representatives of the customer, a number was assigned to it, the contractor began to execute it, controllers may appear. Who need to make sure that the contract was concluded on a legal basis, that the contractor performs it efficiently, and that the terms of the tender complied with the law. And after the contract is executed by both parties and the completion documents are signed, the prosecutor’s supervision or the Investigative Committee can begin an inspection.
What kind of extra income are you writing about if, a year after the completion of the contract for the supply of boards for the needs of the Armed Forces, the contract executors can be held accountable for inflated prices? The contract was concluded. The contract was fulfilled. The contract was fulfilled. The calculations were signed.
And after a while, the executors of the contract, and these are not only fat businessmen, but also the workers who sawed the logs into planks, asked, “Oh, how expensive! They caused 40 million in damage to the country.” 40 million is the contract amount. If you write that the lowest price then was not 40 million, but 39 million, then there will be no loud news.
And the questions are not directed to the customer’s representatives, but to these businessmen who are building their own mansions with state money.
It was emotional.
But about excess income from contracts with the state - this is about those who can now not publish income declarations. And not about those who do not even belong to medium-sized enterprises.

[koralvit]

The author said nothing about planning military production. It is? or not? Why hasn’t the State Planning Committee been introduced yet? Not only in the military industry, but also in civilian production. Who remembered about investing in military production? Why so late? Why does our (or not our) Central Bank work against production growth? Who will answer these questions? I understand that the authorities are ashamed to answer them. In order to win the war with the West and the United States, it is necessary to nationalize the main means of production without stopping them. Create GOSPLAN, Gossnab, according to the principle of the USSR. Make public investments in the creation of new industries and modernization of existing ones, and do not forget about the development of science and scientific personnel. The state must again take upon itself the preparation of qualified workers by organizing vocational schools. This is the only way to win this war and truly turn Russia into a world leader.

[Jacques sekavar]

“planning military production. It is? or not?"

And yes - state defense order, and no.
1. State formation still has a controlling stake in strategically important sectors of production and finance - gas industry, savings bank, etc., etc.
2. Unpredictable wooden somersaults and inflation targeting predetermine the main income of systemically important monopolies not in the domestic, but in the foreign market - trade with the enemy even during war (energy, metals, grain, fertilizers, military equipment)


“Why haven’t GOSPLAN been introduced yet?”

Gosplan presupposes public ownership of the means of production and a state monopoly on foreign trade, and this is a different social system.
Even the Communist Party of the Russian Federation does not set a goal to change it so as not to provoke a civil war and the collapse of state education into separate fiefdoms of wealthy people
“Right is the will of the ruling class, elevated to law”


“Who remembered about investing in military production?”

State formation is the political organization of the economically dominant class
The military industry is paid for from the state budget, i.e. taxes of the population, but protects the interests of the ruling class both within the state formation and outside it.


“Why is our (or not our) Central Bank working against production growth?”

Just as being determines consciousness, so the social system determines the policy of the main bank.
Market relations presuppose the abandonment of state (public) property and government regulation, market (speculative) pricing, and free cross-border movement of goods and capital.
The Russian Federation does not fully meet Western concepts of a free market, and therefore the RSPP singers call for a reduction in the share of state property (a new wave of privatization), market, spontaneous - demand creates supply, regulation of the economy, free (speculative) pricing, etc., etc. etc., which inevitably leads to the subordination of state education to a handful of major capitalists, and the government will be reduced to a weak-willed executor of the will of big capital


“it is necessary to nationalize the main means of production without stopping them”

Capitalists will fight to the death for their property, and this means civil war and the collapse of state formation.

[wladimirjankov]

It’s still unclear with the coalition. Some high-ranking officials say that it has already been put into production and has begun to be supplied to the army. The Moscow Region says that they are “playing the fool.” What is actually happening with this self-propelled gun that the army needs so much now?

[avia12005]

There is a nuance to these theses. If in the West the military-industrial complex and GDP are growing because in Ukraine Russians are killing Russians, and this is good for them, then in Russia the military-industrial complex and GDP are growing due to the fact that their own people are killing their own. And that's bad. It would be better if they grew here because the Anglo-Saxons killed the Anglo-Saxons.

[opposite28]

The volume of work done by domestic specialists is enormous. Just like the work of a domestic Russian Specialist, starting from an ordinary worker and above, cannot be compared with anything!!! In the name of defense of the Motherland!!! Well, control should be handled by persons carrying out their work activities within the framework of official duties

[AlOrg]

Quote: Dutchman Michel

They were removed from TV and radio broadcasting,

How did these cultural figures turn out to be to blame for the fact that our industry was not ready for SVO? Maybe these figures are not to blame, but someone else?

[Tank destroyerSU-100]

The Kaluga GT engine is a headache for Uralvagonzavod. If they give the power 1350-1400 “horses”, then the T-80 will become even faster than it was, and its throttle response was already much better than that of a diesel engine. Wangyu, UVZ will use all its administrative resources to strangle its competitor.

[savage3000]

The T-80 fighter is Uralvagonzavod. For a long time now everything has been Uralvagonzavod. What planet are you from?

[savage3000]

Some aircraft are being put into continuous production. We are talking about the Il-76MD-90A, the future main workhorse of transport aviation in the Northern Military District. Work on equipping the production areas should be completed in February.
+ + + + + + + + + + + + + + +

Author, what are you talking about? IL-76 has been in production for several years now.

[Edvid]

In the fifties and sixties, “sleeping” beacons (or benchmarks) were installed, designed to accurately target strategists. They had to be activated at the moment "X". Why not use the same principle at the front in our time? Small-sized beacons can even be scattered by drones, with their exact location recorded. Further, for example, a reconnaissance drone in the area of ​​work, having detected a target, activates beacons in its area with its transmitter. The reconnaissance operator, using the grid of his screen, sees the exact location of the target relative to the beacon and aims the weapon... The beacon is a consumable item and must be equipped with a self-liquidator.

[rc56]

The military-industrial complex and the army (navy, etc.) armed with it have a very important function in the national economy: they produce security. What would a person be worth without an immune system?!

[storm]

Mobilization, which removed 300 thousand healthy and strong men of working age from the labor market, and the general growth of industrial production throughout the country also had an impact.

So what were you thinking?
It was necessary to call upon professional retired security forces (MoD, RG, FSB, FSIN, Ministry of Internal Affairs...) of whom there are 2,6 million people in Russia. and there was no problem in calling up 300-500 thousand people. aged 35-55 years fit for service.
There is a huge reserve of officials of which there are 2,4 million in Russia and the mobilization of 300 thousand people. would only have a positive impact on the economic situation.
The government's servants were always the first to go to war, and when they couldn't cope, they already assembled the people's militia, now it's the other way around, the men were called up, and the bureaucrats are sitting in their offices.....
As a result, the grouping of Russian troops in the Northern Military District zone already a year ago would have amounted to 600-800 thousand people, and taking into account volunteers and contract soldiers it would have been close to a million people.
And this is without damage to the country’s economy; trained “security officials” and officials, whose primary duty is to serve the State, would come to the North Military District....

[Kapany3]

Quote: alexmach

There can be many and different expressions, what is characteristic is that in the end it will be the people who feed the army, because in principle there is no one else to do this.

For this, Russia and its economy have a certain margin of safety. Moreover, as we have all seen over the past two years, the reserve is not at all small. But we must keep in mind that it is not infinite either.

And it is at his expense that the expenses will be incurred. And all the positive effects of “conversion” described in the article (and also those not described) can only soften the load and stretch this very reserve, nothing more.

The fact is that it is the people who must feed their army. Otherwise, a foreign army will come, fed by a foreign people.