Versions on IL-76: who benefits and who is to blame
In the first lines: I sincerely express my regret that our pilots and military personnel died, this is another loss for all of us and especially for their relatives and friends.
I am sorry that Ukrainian families will not see theirs, although this meeting was oh, so close. Although no, I don’t have a single drop of regret about the “Azov” ones, I won’t lie. But in any case, claims should be made to the command of the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
With the second part of the question asked above, “who is to blame,” everything is simple. In our country they will argue that in Ukraine they will feverishly appoint, because the slap in the face turned out to be significant. The only question is - to whom.
For the whole day I watched the frenzied joy that spread in the Ukrainian media on the topic of the downed plane with S-300 missiles. I slowly “admired the awareness” of the Ukrainian Main Intelligence Directorate, but the thought crept into my head that these banduras could (and should) be moved more safely by rail. Of course, things happen there too, but not so critically.
Then, as the information passed through, the neighbors began to quietly panic, which then grew into a flurry of deleted messages. Nothing has been removed so quickly and in such quantities for a long time. In a few hours, Peremoga was reformatted into “but nothing happened, but what is this?” But the sneaky Internet remembers everything.
I was surprised by the unusual silence on Bankova, just in the style of our Ministry of Defense. There was deathly silence, no comments. Apparently, they feverishly comprehended the current situation in the style of “Who threw the felt boots on the remote control?”
And this silence became confirmation of several versions at once that are being raised for consideration today.
Il-76, according to eyewitnesses, was shot down by two missiles. “Patriot” or IRIS-T – it doesn’t matter. The important thing is that the operation was planned. The air defense systems were brought up to the effective launch limits, and obviously there were visual observers on our side. Plus, not only the flight route was clearly known, but also the time frame, which made it possible not to use the radar in vain, since they could have been detected from our side.
Of course, IRIS-T is more suitable for the method of application. It is more mobile than the Patriot, and American air defense systems guard Kyiv. But that's not the point.
It is more important to understand who or what, what forces are behind this operation. Who needed the death of the Russians and Ukrainians so much that such an order as “hit our own” was given and, most importantly, executed. After all, whatever one may say, on one side of the scale there are 9 Russians and one plane, on the other - 65 of our own.
And do not forget that after the first plane there was a second one, on board of which there were 70 more Ukrainians. And one Patriot launcher has four missiles. And IRIS-T has eight... Almost no chance.
Let's look at the versions?
1. “The Cretin at the Control”
Much has been said on this topic, but mostly these versions do not stand up to criticism. “A drunken air defense missile launch operator”, “a stubborn Nazi”, “a stoned Russophobe”, “some fool who wanted to hit a Russian plane” - this is the minimum that I read this day.
Russophobes, I note, are all there. It simply cannot be otherwise, Ukrainians are placed in such conditions, so everyone there is Russophobes. But about everything else - you know, a modern anti-aircraft missile system is a complex organism, and with a simple press of a button one person can send a missile, but the question is where. The essence of the actions of the air defense missile system crew is precisely coherence in terms of detection, identification, target acquisition, missile guidance and an attempt to hit the target.
“The crews didn’t know who they were shooting at.” Yes, perhaps we can agree. Ordinary performers are rarely given the full amount of information. It's bad for performance brains. So the crews saw two Russian transport aircraft on their radar screens and nothing more. Something tells me that launching into a plane where your own people are located is such a burden on the conscience, even for a Ukrainian.
Another thing is those who gave the orders.
2. Internal struggle in Kyiv
Maybe. The fact that there is no agreement within the ruling elites of Ukraine has been known for a long time. And some would gladly stop the war and negotiate, so as not to lose what they still have left at this moment.
And there is Zelensky’s party, which is going to fight until the last Ukrainian or until victory. “The whole world is with us” and everything else.
It is quite possible that the provocation with Il-76, which became a tragedy, was the work of one of the parties. Moreover, here I would look specifically at Zelensky’s party, because not only does he, as the president, have a lot of headaches with the giants demanding the return of husbands and sons who have been fighting for a year or more in their huts, but there are also those who demands the return of his relatives from captivity.
Considering that in Ukraine the population is not eager to go to the front at the word “at all”, and they surrender easily and not one by one, this provocation can be seen as a certain message to those who are weak in spirit. There is no need to surrender, you need to return with a shield, as the ancients said.
You can even give specifics. Confrontation between Zelensky and Zaluzhny. For now, Zelensky seems to be putting pressure, but it won’t be possible to remove Zaluzhny and send him to hell. The Ukrainian general is too popular and any pressure, as practice has already shown, can easily lead to another Maidan, only in the army. And the march of a certain number of units supporting Zaluzhny to Kyiv. Well, we already know how this is done.
Here, Zelensky’s party is directly interested in discrediting Zaluzhny. In the end, is it not the commander-in-chief of the Armed Forces who is responsible for everything that happens in the Armed Forces? Why do they kill their own people?
Although, with the same success, the forces of Zaluzhny’s party could have arranged a setup for Zelensky. In general, both had full access to information and both (Zaluzhny even more so) had plenty of opportunities to organize such an operation.
The version itself is not bad and ruthless, but it is not very supported by actions. After all, the media controlled by Zelensky screamed loudly about victory and another downed Russian plane. And then the chicken coop started throwing around when the ferret arrived. A single picture does not emerge.
And here we also need to say about the power steering of the Armed Forces of Ukraine. There are people sitting there who have a great command of the whole situation. And who communicate well with representatives of our structures. At least on the topic of prisoner exchange. All these committees and human rights activists are a trifle that should not be paid attention to. Until representatives of the relevant structures on both front lines give the go-ahead, there will be no exchange. There will be burnt seats in the Duma and Council committees, but there will be no exchange.
And the fact that the power steering fell into a certain stupor indicates that something went wrong. And the version with a load of missiles for the S-300 failed, since there was not a single missile in the wreckage on the field, and the version with some political VIPs who were thrown out of the plane by the FSB. In general, there the representative of the Main Intelligence Directorate, Yusov, was talking such nonsense all the time while the Main Intelligence Directorate was trying to understand what happened - you had to hear it.
In general, the reaction of the Ukrainian side was strange. We can say that in Kyiv they were no less surprised than dumbfounded by the information that came from Russia. And there was absolutely nothing to answer, because in the very first minutes the Ministry of Defense joyfully reported on the downing of the Il-76. But the fact that then a rant began that the plane was empty, that the S-300 was homing in on it and was launched at Kharkov - all this speaks of desperate improvisation in attempts to find at least some explanation for what was happening.
And here, on the ruins of the understanding of Kyiv, we have a third version.
3. The work is not the work of the Ukrainian Armed Forces
Where does this version come from? And she, oddly enough, has the right to live even more than the first two.
Let's take the French, for example. The fact that citizens of this country are present in the ranks of the Armed Forces of Ukraine is no secret to anyone. As well as the presence of citizens of the USA, Canada, Poland, Romania, and Germany. Actually, the Ukrainian side not only did not deny the presence of these gentlemen in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, they boasted about it in every possible way. And from this short list, and the list of foreign citizens in the SVU itself is much larger in terms of geography, we are interested in precisely these. Precisely because these countries are armed with the same Patriot air defense system. And if you want to send a certain number of experienced and trained specialists “on vacation” or “on a business trip at the expense of the host party” - we are all smart people, we understand that it’s just right, if the money corresponds to the moment and the risks.
The same applies to citizens of Austria, Germany, Greece and Italy, who were also noticed on the territory of Ukraine in relation to German IRIS-T.
The French do not have Patriots in service. But there is a severe motivation to take revenge, since more than once the citizens of this country have come under our missile attacks. The motive, as they say, is obvious.
In general, the British rule everything behind the scenes there. And this is bad, I have already written more than once on the topic that the British are very good warriors. Skillful, professional, but most importantly, this is the very British trait that allowed them to build an empire in their time: contempt for everyone else.
Britain's tasks in this war are clear in principle. Maximum weakening of Russia. Well, and making money at the expense of Ukraine, if there is still something left to earn there. The French, after De Gaulle, always trudged in the wake of British politics, playing second fiddle to “give and bring.” Yes, Britain ceased to be the British Empire after the Second World War, but France also lost its claims to power.
There is no direct evidence, but why exactly did France block the last two attempts to convene the UN Security Light (on Belgorod and Il-76)? Not the USA, not the UK, but France.
The answer is simple: they appointed it. Germany cannot be touched, Scholz is milking the country in favor of Ukraine, completely killing the German economy, saving pounds and dollars for the real owners. But the French were almost out of business, so they were sent to the diplomatic field to fight.
So, the French provided cover at the UN. Fine. The British and Americans gave information because I personally do not have the slightest doubt that they could have information on everything that was happening on the front line and behind it. This is the job.
Could they replace the crew with their own, which would not bother the heads of those flying on the plane? Yes, easily.
It’s just realistic, if everyone in Zelensky’s administration is in shock, if the Ministry of Defense and the Main Intelligence Directorate cannot say anything clearly on the topic, perhaps they didn’t give the order? Did he come from a higher level than Zelensky or Zaluzhny?
I’m not trying to justify them at all, but who are 65 captured Ukrainians for American or British military consultants? Dirt underfoot, and nothing more. There is a certain plan that the Armed Forces of Ukraine are obliged to follow, and everything that is not included in it is unnecessary.
If the countries governing Ukraine decided to disrupt the negotiation process through such a provocation, then 65 captured Ukrainians are worth less in the eyes of the Americans than a crumpled pack of Marlboros in the pocket of their chief consultant. Who could send instructors or his specialists to the air defense system and give such an order.
With all the respect for Zaluzhny as a competent and dangerous enemy and disrespect for Zelensky as the president, it is still hard to believe that they signed the death warrant for their people. The puzzle doesn't work out well, no matter how you twist it.
But this fits in simply perfectly with the plan of the Americans and the British to wage war until the last Ukrainian. And the style of the Anglo-Saxons, when they don’t care about everyone and everything except their plans and goals, can be seen in all its glory. Yes, he is small, he is less vile in terms of meanness than the crime against 42 million Ukrainians, but in terms of vileness he is absolutely the same.
In general, all three plans have the right to life. But the lives stolen by the creators of these plans, alas, cannot be returned.
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