F-16s will strike soon - we must be prepared
Unconfirmed sources
According to information disseminated by the American publication Newsweek on December 27, 2023, some of the F-16 fighters promised to the Ukrainian Armed Forces (AFU) may already be on the territory of the recipient country. Moreover, the source suggests that the Ukrainian Air Force has already used F-16s against Russian Air Force combat aircraft, as well as for launching Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG cruise missiles at targets in Russia.
Newsweek cites its source in the United States. The article also states that, according to Ukrainian media, over the past three weeks the Ukrainian Armed Forces were able to destroy eight Russian combat aircraft. The comments to the Newsweek article mention single contrails seen in the skies over Ukraine, which remain only from single-engine aircraft, while all combat aircraft available to Russia and Ukraine, such as the MiG-29, MiG-31, Su-24, Su -25, as well as aircraft of the Su-27 family, are twin-engine.
If we approach the information provided by Newsweek with skepticism, then, of course, there is no evidence that the F-16 fighters have actually been transferred to Ukraine. US source? But what is this source? So anyone can refer to someone supposedly “informed”, which, in fact, happens all the time, but information from these “sources” is most often later not confirmed.
There is no official confirmation that Russian planes were shot down, nor are there any official denials. In some Russian, quite patriotic telegram channels, information flashed about the destruction of several Russian combat aircraft, but it has not yet received unequivocal confirmation, and the Ukrainian media published in the news about the downed Russian planes, last year's photographs, while there are no new reliable photo confirmations of Ukrainian "exploits". However, even if cases of the destruction of Russian combat aircraft did take place, this does not serve as an unambiguous confirmation of the appearance of F-16 fighters in Ukraine - this could well be the work of anti-aircraftrocket Patriot complex from an ambush.
As for single contrails, the question here is that if the Ukrainian Armed Forces had F-16 fighters, they would most likely be used at low altitudes in order to avoid detection by Russian radar stations and being hit by long-range missiles from Su-35/MiG-31 fighter-interceptors or S-400 air defense systems. At the same time, a contrail or wake trail is rarely formed at low altitudes, as a rule, in conditions of very low temperatures, which clearly does not apply to Ukraine.
Jet aircraft do not always leave a contrail behind them.
And the Ukrainian Air Force may well have single-engine combat aircraft - this modernized Su-17M3M fighter-bombers (Su-22M4 or S-22UMZK).
F-16 already in Ukraine?
It would seem that everything suggests that Newsweek’s information is untrue, if not for two points.
Firstly, it has recently become obvious that Western countries first secretly supply military equipment, then the Armed Forces of Ukraine use it against the Russian Armed Forces, trying to achieve the effect of surprise, and only then the media and official sources, both Ukraine and Western countries, confirm fact of delivery.
Secondly, the behavior of the representative of the Ukrainian Air Force command Yuriy Ignat, who began to actively refute the information of Newsweek that F-16 fighters are already on Ukrainian territory, as well as about “the inappropriateness of their stay in Ukraine at this stage" It is characteristic that in mid-November of this year the same Yuriy Ignat denied information about the beginning of training for Ukrainian pilots to fly F-16 fighters in Romania. This is very atypical behavior for both Ukrainian officials and the Ukrainian media, which are more prone to bragging and exaggeration than to modesty and secrecy.
We should not forget that the presidential elections of the Russian Federation are approaching, and in the absence of real achievements on the battlefield, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will try to carry out the most sensitive - “media” attacks that cause maximum resonance in Russian society, in an attempt to shake up the situation within our country. And what could be better for the enemy than to strike at the height of the New Year holidays against critical civilian infrastructure or armed forces?
Let's assume that Newsweek's information is true or close to it, that is, even if the F-16 fighters are not actually on the territory of Ukraine yet, but the pilots are trained, the infrastructure is deployed, ammunition is available, and the technicians are ready to start working. In this case, for the appearance of F-16 fighters in Ukraine, a few hours may be enough - just fly from the territory of Romania or Poland.
There is another scenario - even if F-16 fighters are not located on the territory of Ukraine, where is the guarantee that they do not or will not fly from the territory of Poland or Romania? Yes, it seems that there were statements that Russia would regard the flights of combat aircraft from the territory of third countries as direct participation in the conflict, but without confirmation of threats with action, all these are empty words - we still have not gotten even for the Nord Stream, although it was possible at least destroy submarine cables between the US and Europe.
In addition, NATO countries can get out of it, for example, from bases in Romania or Poland, F-16 fighters will take off unarmed, then make a short landing at Ukrainian airfields - refuel, arm themselves, maybe even change the Polish pilot to a Ukrainian one, and then take off and perform combat work. And that’s it, formally the flights are coming from the territory of Ukraine - we didn’t strike Poland or Germany because they began transporting damaged Ukrainian armored vehicles there for repairs? So the planes - they were fired, a short landing, a change of pilot and to Poland for maintenance - what will we do then?
F-16 fighters at Lask Air Base, Poland
Threats and Risks
Despite the occasional mischievous talk that Ukrainian F-16 fighters will not affect the course of the conflict in any way, and that all of them will be quickly shot down by Russian Su-35 fighters and S-400 air defense systems, if used correctly, enemy aircraft can cause us significant damage .
Of course, first of all we are talking about the same use of the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missile system. Some sources talk about the incompatibility of these missiles with F-16 fighters, but this can clearly be solved, and perhaps it has already been decided - the Soviet Su-24 and MiG-29 were also not adapted to work with the Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missile system. Each F-16 fighter can potentially carry 2 Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, that is, even 5 vehicles are 10 missiles in a salvo, not counting the possible remnants of Soviet-made Ukrainian aircraft, including those delivered from third countries after the start of the SVO .
In this case, we can expect new attacks on the ships of the Black Sea fleet Russian Navy, Crimean Bridge and airfields located within the reach of the Kyrgyz Republic Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG when launched from the territory of Ukraine, still controlled by the Ukrainian Armed Forces. In order to ruin the New Year holidays for Russians, civilian infrastructure facilities may also be attacked.
At worst The United States may transfer AGM-16B JASSM-ER cruise missiles along with F-158 fighters – then the enemy will most likely try to deliver a powerful blow deep into the territory of our country. Here we can distinguish two most possible scenarios: the first - when the attack will be carried out on predominantly military targets, that is, on air bases, large fuel storage facilities and weapons depots, the second - when the enemy tries to deliver the strongest possible “image” blow to Moscow.
The F-16 fighter can carry 2 JASSM ER missiles
The F-16 fighters, even though they will not be delivered to Ukraine in the latest modification, are equipped with fairly advanced onboard radio-electronic equipment (avionics). In addition, it cannot be ruled out that they will be equipped with various suspended containers, such as electronic intelligence (ELINT) and electronic warfare (EW) – after all, Western countries are also interested in testing their technology in real conditions, and working on their own territory makes it unlikely that critical technologies will fall into enemy hands.
Taking advantage of the avionics, F-16 fighters could begin hunting Russian air defense systems with anti-radar missiles (ARM) such as the AGM-88 HARM. This could potentially reduce the effectiveness of Russian air defense systems (Defense), primarily near the line of combat contact (LBC).
Ukrainian MiG-29 fighter launches AGM-88 HARM missile launcher. It can be assumed that the F-16 will cope with this task even better
And finally, using AIM-120 V-B missiles, F-16 fighters can try to attack Russian planes and helicopters. The greatest risks are exposed to long-range radar detection and control aircraft (AWACS), of which our country has very few, transport aircraft and Tu-22M3 long-range bombers, in the event that they approach enemy-controlled territory, for example, for launching Kh-22 missiles at targets located deep in Ukraine. It cannot be ruled out that the Ukrainian Armed Forces will try to attack tactical aircraft. aviation – for the United States, the Russian Su-120 fighter shot down by an AIM-16 missile from an F-35 fighter is an excellent advertisement that can bring billions of dollars in profits in the future.
The flight range of the most modern modification of the B-B missile AIM-120D reaches 180 kilometers
A scenario is possible and very likely when target designation for Ukrainian F-16 fighters will be directly issued by AWACS aircraft and reconnaissance unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs) of Western countries.
Conclusions
F-16 fighters may already be transferred to the Ukrainian Armed Forces, may be transferred in the very near future, and can also carry out strikes from the territory of third countries, carrying out short-term landings at Ukrainian airfields for rearmament and refueling, in order to formally deny the fact of a combat sortie, for example, from the territory Poland or Romania.
F-16 fighters will pose a threat even with existing Storm Shadow/SCALP-EG missiles, and if American long-range missiles of the JASSM-ER type are supplied, the danger posed by them will increase significantly.
The use of F-16 fighters with RTR and electronic warfare containers, in combination with AGM-88 HARM-type missile launchers, will pose a threat to Russian air defense systems, primarily near the LBS.
There are high risks of F-16 fighters using B-B AIM-120 missiles to inflict sensitive losses on the Russian Air Force using target designation issued by AWACS aircraft and reconnaissance UAVs of NATO countries, including Russian AWACS aircraft, long-range bombers Tu-22M3 and tactical aircraft Su-35.
Yes, F-16 fighters will not be able to turn the tide of the Northern Military District in favor of Ukraine, but with their help it is possible to inflict very unpleasant losses on the Russian Armed Forces - this threat cannot be treated with the usual “hat-kicking” attitude of a significant part of our society.
It is necessary to take measures for the timely detection and destruction of Ukrainian F-16 fighters both in the air and at home airfields. If F-16 fighters are based at NATO air bases, they must be detected and destroyed by high-precision weapons long range – Western countries cannot be allowed to cross another “red line”.
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