Rafale vs Su-30SM: battle in the skies of Central Asia
France is very actively trying to enter the world arms sales market with Rafale aircraft, trying to displace Russian aircraft in the countries of Central Asia, the original users of Soviet and Russian weapons.
Apparently, he really wants money. Especially after the USA and Great Britain famously beat France in the matter of supplying submarines to Australia. Let us recall that the French contractor Naval Group was supposed to supply Australia with 12 submarines, the contract value was $66 billion. However, Australia has now entered into a partnership with the United States and Great Britain, which will help it build fewer nuclear submarines (8 units) and a little more expensive.
However, the French rushed to develop new markets and today the same French cars can be seen in the armies of the former CIS countries. And Ukraine has generally become a testing ground for French technology, so it is not surprising that companies from France are struggling to exchange their products for dollars and euros.
It is not surprising that after the success in India (if you can call it that) with the delivery of Rafales to the Indian Air Force, I wanted more. And since Russia seems to have lost the tender, then why not promote it in other places? Well, in general, everything is logical.
And so in the fall of this year, French emissaries began to frequent Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. Well, it would be very interesting to supply “Rafale” to these republics as well, fortunately, they showed interest.
Moreover, when the guys from Dassault Aviation really smelled the money, they brought heavy artillery into the battle. President Macron himself visited Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. This happened on November 1 and 2, and return visits of Presidents Mirziyoyev and Tokayev took place on November 21 and 29, respectively.
And where over pilaf, where over beshbarmak, and where over coffee and croissants there was a conversation that yes, it would be nice to update the aircraft fleet...
In fact, both Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan have quite a lot of real aircraft junk on their balance sheets in the form of MiG-29, Su-27, Su-17, MiG-25 and MiG-23. Some of this assortment still underwent maintenance and modernization by the Belarusians in Baranovichi, but mostly these are “dead souls” that are only listed, and there is little real use from them, because this equipment is still Soviet, from those times.
Considering that now everyone is openly not friends with Russia, the plan was overall not bad. And bilateral cooperation between France and the Central Asian republics looked very logical and justified. And after the return visits of the heads of the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Republic of Uzbekistan to Paris, the French felt very confident. The rationale is clear: of course, the European Rafale is much better than any Russian aircraft. Simply because he is European. And it’s clear that with the purchase of European values, relationships are also bought, isn’t it?
Well, little by little the French began to celebrate their victory in the arms market. And at the end of November, the BFM TV channel began broadcasting that this is the situation: the republics of Central Asia want new aircraft and are considering European suppliers. And the French seem to have nothing to do with it, but they are quite ready to help for full euros.
It was well planned, like “it’s not my fault, he came himself!” Although the French did not lie too much, indeed, there was a desire to update the fleet, and in Kazakhstan it was even stronger than in Uzbekistan, because Tashkent received 2021 Su-12SM fighters in 30.
Therefore, the guys from Dassault Aviation, and even with the support of Macron, had a chance. In principle, it is normal when the president supports his producers and trades at the highest level. There are presidents who sell gas, others who sell oil, and others who sell cut and painted paper. Who has what at hand?
Considering the average cost of a Rafale is around 100 million dollars, and there is no point in selling less than a squadron (12 units plus training units at least 2 units), and weapons, spare parts, maintenance, training of pilots and technicians... In general, it really smelled like a billion, yes not alone. There was a reason for the president to plow.
Macron, of course, did his job. He knows how, he can’t take it away. But here’s the problem: Kazakhs and Uzbeks are a little different from Indians. Indians, of course, are not very rich for the most part (more precisely, the bulk of them are just poor), but they are one of the largest buyers of weapons in the world. That’s why they have their own vision of how everything should happen and their own conditions.
True, the French “threw them away” with the Rafales, because the main condition of the Indian side - production on Indian territory - caused the response of the “European partners”: there will be no production. But Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan don’t need this, because they have nowhere to produce. If Uzbekistan got the Tashken aircraft plant from the USSR, then, alas, the Uzbeks were unable to enter the aircraft industry, and, having disrupted orders for Ukraine and China, the plant was destroyed, bankrupted and its remains are used as a mechanical car repair plant. But the Kazakhs didn’t even have that.
Therefore, the task of acquiring aircraft began to play with interesting colors. Aircraft need to be maintained, repaired and overhauled. It’s one thing when this is done at Russian factories, which are only a couple of thousand kilometers away, another thing when it comes to Belarusian ones, which are three thousand kilometers away, and quite another thing when it comes to French factories, the distance to which is more than five thousand kilometers.
That is, in an amicable way, it is necessary to organize a repair base on site for the Rafales. And train specialists for it. In India, this is easier: there is still an industry there that produces complex equipment from cars to airplanes. That is, there is equipment, workers and engineers, plus personnel who train workers and engineers. The technological chain in all its glory.
Nothing similar is observed in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan; moreover, today in these republics there is a real shortage of personnel precisely in terms of the engineering staff, which was 95% Russian. Today, Russians are leaving Kazakhstan under pressure from local, openly anti-Russian nationalists, which many resources simply talk about in alarm. Yes, the leadership of Kazakhstan pretends that nothing is happening, blaming the Russian side for everything (as usual), but this does not change things at all. And the shortage of personnel in the engineering staff is a familiar picture for the Republic of Kazakhstan and the Republic of Uzbekistan, moreover, in any industry, not only in aviation.
And in this particular case, what is needed is not just technicians and engineers, but technicians and engineers with knowledge of the language. French or, at worst, English. I think that all technical documentation on the Rafale has been translated into English for the Indian Air Force. But who will translate into Kazakh, which the Kazakhs themselves do not know, is the question. And God forbid, if the Kazakhs themselves do this, it will turn out worse than in our time.
In 2018, it was funny when the “specialists” of the University of Civil Aviation (St. Petersburg, former Civil Aviation Academy) decided to do a good deed and translated QRH - a collection of emergency procedures for the DA-42 training aircraft into Russian. The matter was done, approved, and sent to educational institutions - state flight schools of civil aviation in Russia.
Pages from this work spread all over the Internet and caused a healthy reaction among people who fly, since, for example, “experts” from the University of Civil Aviation suggested that if a student suddenly had a fire in the cockpit at an altitude of more than 10.000 feet, first of all turn on the oxygen supply, then remove the landing gear and maintaining “speed on demand” fly to the nearest airfield.
And this is in Russia, where there seem to be many aviation and humanitarian educational institutions. That is, in theory there should be people who understand what an airplane is and know foreign languages.
It is difficult to imagine what this will look like in Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan. There will be the same “A Thousand and One Nights” in its most terrible version.
In Kazakhstan, apparently, they thought well and decided not to risk it. And at the end of November, immediately after Tokayev’s visit to Macron, they announced that they would buy the Su-30SM. And the Rafale... And what about the Rafale?
“No negotiations have been held on this issue. We had no such plans.", - Deputy Commander-in-Chief of the country's air defense forces for armaments, head of the main armament department Erzhan Nildibaev.
Like this. Nobody was going to buy the Rafale. This was not even in the plans. So, we sat over coffee and talked about nothing, but not seriously.
True, Nildibaev later added that “Therefore, choosing the question of price - quality, we are still sticking with the Su-30SM aircraft.”.
That is, after all, they made certain plans and thought about it. A peculiar people, our neighbors.
But in general story - one to one model of 2002 with Algeria. One of the former largest buyers of Russian weapons. Then they also came there with Rafales and danced around the Algerians for a long time, persuading them to buy Rafales instead of the Su-30MKA. However, Algeria preferred the Su-30MKA, very competently justifying the refusal: the Su-30 has a range of 1 km longer than the Rafale with the same speed and weapons load capacity, and the Russian aircraft has the advantage of a deflectable thrust vector.
Well, the price.
Here you need to understand that, as a member of the CSTO for now, Kazakhstan has very large discounts on Russian weapons. I would say huge discounts. “The Rafale will be supplied at the maximum price, since in addition to aircraft, ammunition and spare parts, training programs for all flight and technical personnel will be required. And this is expensive. And in general, the Rafal is an expensive car not only to purchase, but also to operate. They have been talking about this for a long time.
So the question is: does the Kazakh Air Force need a very expensive one to purchase, a very expensive one to operate, and at the same time, well, not call the Rafal the height of technical perfection. This is such a strong mid-range aircraft, but for its price you can buy two Su-30SM, the latest modification. And if you ask nicely, then three.
But the main thing is that Kazakh technicians and engineers have been operating Sukhoi Design Bureau machines for a long time (the entire independent history of Kazakhstan). And in more than 20 years it is really possible to master the hardware of any aircraft. So the Su-30 is really more familiar and cheaper. And under the MiG and Su there is everything: personnel, infrastructure, warehouses and so on. There is nothing for French planes, and everything will only be for money.
Here it is worth remembering how the Indian military, with some surprise, learned that the Rafales have their own refueling system and in order for the planes to be refueled in the air, they “only” have to buy air tankers with the appropriate equipment.
This is the most luxurious example when politicians begin to steer military procurement.
It’s difficult to say what happened in Kazakhstan and how the local military handled the situation when they were informed that everything was going well with the Rafales, but I think there are no such words in the Kazakh language and we had to use the great and mighty, fortunately, he is in the highest echelons of power still in use.
In general, the Kazakh military somehow managed to bring to their senses the politicians who clearly had no longer seen the shores. Apparently, the military budget is more important than political ambitions of an anti-Russian nature, and they understand very well (better than politicians) that “cheap and cheerful” is the Su-30, not the Rafal.
And in general, cheap is not about French weapons. Just look at the price tables, where you can see that the Rafale is one of the most expensive aircraft in its class. Up to 124 million dollars. The European "Typhoon" - 120 million dollars. And all the others, such as F-15, Su-30, cost 45-55 million dollars.
In general, the Kazakhs came to their senses and decided that another pack of Su-30s to add to the ones they already had was more interesting than spending huge sums on the Rafale. So Macron has beshbarmak to his credit, but the rest is alas.
In Uzbekistan, everything is absolutely identical, the difference with Kazakhstan is that in 2021, the Uzbek Air Force has already received new Su-30SM, which in general makes the situation with the purchase of Rafales an overtly political step.
It is understandable that after getting hit on the nose in Kazakhstan, the businessmen from Dassault Aviation now continued to dance with the Uzbek Air Force. The whole catch is that the Uzbek military was considering purchasing some other aircraft in addition to the Su-30. Both Rafales and South Korean KAI FA-50s were in sight.
But the South Korean plane is a machine of a completely different class. This is a classmate of light aircraft such as JAS-39 or Yak-130. Yes, it is very generously stuffed with advanced electronics, but its weapons are basically of the last century. And all the same problems as with the Rafale: who will maintain this high-tech aircraft? Uzbek technicians with MiG-29? In general, the problems are still the same.
And one more nuance. Even if it worked out, the conclusion of contracts would not guarantee their rapid execution. There is information that Dassault Aviation production facilities are loaded several years in advance. Moreover, the aircraft that are still on the balance sheet of the French Air Force, but which could be sold, also seem to be scheduled for buyers. In general, business is going well.
And it is clear why French President Macron is so actively involved in promoting French weapons on the world market. The military-industrial complex of each country that produces weapons is a tool for both earning money for the country’s budget and for earning political points by the leadership.
In general, given the political situation and Russia’s relations with its neighbors, the option of Macron pushing through the latter is quite realistic. And Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan could well try to replace Russian planes with French ones, but... But for this, the republics would have to have two things: a lot of money and trained personnel. It is doubtful that our neighbors have both. So the Rafales, which “flew” past the Kazakh budget, will most likely “fly” past the cash register in Uzbekistan.
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