The debunked god of war?
Now we will think about what we talked about recently within the walls and halls of the DSEI exhibition. DSEI (Defense Security and Equipment International Exhibition and Conference) is an international arms exhibition and fair, which has been held in London every 1999 years since 2. Unlike the International Arms Exhibition in Paris "Eurosatory", DSEI as an alternative is held in odd years.
At this exhibition, not only manufacturing companies boast about who came up with what is deadly, but also various military experts give presentations. And this is an equally important component of the exhibition, because often, on the basis of some research, development of a new weapons, as well as modernization of existing ones. Well, a discussion of tactics of use, which will be the subject of today’s proceedings.
DSEI London typically hosts multiple panels for talks and discussions spread across exhibition halls across six separate forums.
On one of the days of the exhibition, September 14, an event occurred that interests us: a report "Lessons Learned from Ukraine: Does Artillery Win Wars?".
Even if military analysts from NATO countries had taken part in the discussion, it would have been informative and interesting, but the presence of Lieutenant Colonel Yuri Patskan, an officer in the Main Directorate of Missile Forces, Artillery and Unmanned Systems of the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, made it even more interesting.
Artillery officers spoke. Brigadier Neil Budd from the British Army and Colonel Cyril Jordanov from the French Army, as well as presenter Nick Elliott, chairman of British artificial intelligence company Helsing and a former British Army engineer.
They say that during the report and co-reports there were no empty seats left in the hall.
At the very beginning, Elliott reminded the audience how on April 17, 1940, in the Kremlin, senior commanders of the Red Army discussed the experience of the recently ended war against Finland. At the end, Stalin personally spoke, who in his speech said that “In modern war, artillery is God.”
Well, if the British royal engineer said so... In general, some sources indicate that Stalin only repeated an expression that was uttered two centuries before by the French general of the Napoleonic army, Jean-Baptiste de Gribeauval. But de Gribeauval doesn’t care, and we are pleased with the respect from the enemy. I think no one doubts that Britain is our enemy today.
Elliott's report consisted of several theses.
In the first, he praised 155mm artillery, which has become a lifeline for Ukraine, calling 155mm shells “the royal currency.”
The second thesis was devoted specifically to the question of how artillery is a decisive factor in a military conflict.
Stalin actually called artillery the “god of war.” And he was right, because the massive use of a large number of cannon artillery gave the side using a certain and even decisive advantage. But more than 80 years have passed since then and much has already changed in the world.
Mass bombardment may no longer be the most important aspect of artillery use.
“The ability to be fast, accurate and efficient outweighs sheer numerical superiority. ... And this pace is enabled by technology, software, new ways of integrating assets and information, artificial intelligence. When it comes to today's artillery, it is no longer the big eating the small, but the fast eating the slow,” Elliott said.
It's very difficult to argue with this. Indeed, the advent of counter-battery radars, which calculate the coordinates of artillery batteries in very short periods of time, moved shooting to a slightly different plane, different from the classical one.
Loitering ammunition, and with them ordinary flying bombs from civilians drones became a means of instant response to detection. Well, the appearance of the Haymars and Iskanders on the battlefield made the confident suppression of the batteries a matter of minutes.
And here we have not yet a word about aviation, which, in theory, was supposed to become the main enemy of artillery.
“With neither Russia nor Ukraine achieving air superiority, the war has come down to two armies hitting each other with artillery,” Elliott said.
The statistics that Lieutenant Colonel Patskan shared with the audience confirmed this: 90 percent of Ukraine’s losses in the war with Russia in the first year were from artillery.
And another data was voiced by the Ukrainian military: at the beginning of hostilities on the territory of Ukraine in 2014, the time from identifying a target to delivering an artillery strike on it was about 15 minutes. Thanks to spotter drones, counter-battery radars, modern communications and new command and control software, the Ukrainian army has now reduced this time to about four to five minutes, Patskan said.
The British side, having assimilated the information, began to think hard. Well, or pretend that he is actively working with data, because Brigadier General Neil Budd, commander of the 1st Shock Deep Reconnaissance Brigade, said: “We are clearly studying what is happening in Ukraine at the moment.”
The Deep Reconnaissance Strike Brigade Combat Team was formed in July 2022 and is a unique combination of ground reconnaissance, surveillance, targeting and artillery, "all combined into one brigade for the first time," he said.
There is little doubt that the British are good fighters. Yes, the British army... is somewhat conservative, but they work even with this. As for innovations, this is in order, at least when it comes to tactics.
Budd noted that the British Army is currently working very actively to increase the speed of the data processing and decision-making system. The main goal is to make the data collection system more efficient, including through artificial intelligence with an ever-increasing share of process automation.
"Fewer boundaries between the sensor, the decision-making commander and the shooter"
The general is right and yes, the practice of the Northern Military District confirms this. The passage of approvals has already become the talk of the town on the other side of the front, but the Armed Forces of Ukraine openly boast that NATO instructors, having created their control system using modern communications, have allowed them to reduce the level of decision-making. And now the battery commander, who will have all the necessary data for this, can make a decision on a fire attack on the enemy.
Colonel Cyril Jordanov, head of the artillery department of the French Army Command, chose to quote Napoleon, who said: "God is on the side of the best artillery".
Nevertheless, Iordanov’s opinion was as follows:
“I don't believe you will win the war with artillery. You win a war with a better strategy, a better military-industrial complex and a strong morale among the population."
Well, from a strategic point of view, the French colonel is absolutely right. Still, artillery is essential to tactical success: The key for artillery now is command and control, Yordanov said, echoing the sentiments of other panelists.
What is stopping the artilleryman today?
According to Patskan, the two main problems Ukraine faces with its artillery are superior Russian electronic warfare capabilities, which help detect Ukrainian units, and loitering munitions, which destroy them. Thus, the ability to quickly aim artillery, shoot at a target, and then move to another location to avoid retaliation becomes increasingly important.
If you look back at the year 2022, when the next Eurosatory exhibition was held in Paris, several European weapons manufacturers presented the so-called “shoot and scoot” systems - small tactical wheeled vehicles equipped with mortars that allowed just two team members to deploy the mortar, aim it, fire it, and then pack it up and leave within minutes.
This is a real response to real changes in the situation on the battlefield. ISIS mobile mortar crews have demonstrated their effectiveness back in Syria, causing many problems for the Syrian army, and not only it.
General Budd concluded that on modern battlefields it is becoming more and more difficult to hide from the enemy, making the mobility, maneuverability and speed of deployment of artillery systems so much more vital that they surpass in importance such parameters as range and destructiveness of the charge.
Yes, it turns out that now the god of war must “shoot and run.” Alas, Budd and Iordanov together admitted that if you stay in place, you could die. And when it came to command posts, both spoke on the topic that a modern command post is generally the primary target for the enemy.
The war in Ukraine is prompting armies to rethink artillery and its use.
Moreover, everything happened in just 14-15 months. Literally at the very beginning, the earth trembled from the Russian “Shaft of Fire,” which instilled fear not only in the Ukrainians, but also in their assistants. But that’s what assistants are for, to help. And by the time of the capture of Bakhmut, the situation had changed almost radically: there was no talk of any mass shooting by divisions and regiments at all. And they also stopped mentioning any lengthy processing of the front edge or fortified area.
And at one time, the videos on the other side, from the Ukrainian Armed Forces soldiers pressing into the ground, swearing at the artillery, the work of which shook everything above and below the ground - they did a good job of raising the general mood.
And it was all over.
And it's not a lack of shells. Yes, there were problems with supplies, but the shelling of Ukrainian positions with artillery was stopped for a completely different reason. It simply became impossible to do it the same way as at the beginning of the Northern Military District, when the barrels threw out thousands of shells a day, mixing everything with the ground and drawing rather terrible landscapes.
Simply, after 4-5 shots, the positions were revealed, the coordinates were calculated and the Highmars flew there. As it turned out in practice, the weapon is very accurate and fast. And the artillery simply did not have the opportunity to stand in positions and fire for hours. The time of the artillery attack began to be calculated in minutes.
We had an article from the artillerymen from Gvozdik.
Entering the position – aiming – one sighting – adjustment – 3-5 rounds of rapid fire – leaving the position. All about everything in no more than 7 minutes. Delay is really like death, because in the best case, shells will arrive from the same artillerymen from the other side. At worst - a "Hymars" or a drone with an explosive charge, a thing even more terrible in its accuracy than the "Hymars".
As a result, the times when batteries could iron out the enemy for hours, firing hundreds and thousands of shells, have in fact sunk into history. history. Pointed injections with a sword replaced the long beating with a club. And another important aspect became clear: it is more profitable to stab with a sword if you are a winner. From an economic point of view.
Let's remember Bakhmut. How many shells were spent to capture this city? These shots could not leave anyone indifferent, since the name of what was happening there was HELL.
The result?
The end result is just empty space and ruins.
In fact, you can forget about the city of Bakhmut/Artemovsk, because it was simply wiped off the face of the earth. There is no point in blaming anyone for this, because both sides tried their best. The question is what the further value of this “acquisition” can be left open, since such a destroyed city is not a value, but quite the opposite.
Observing everything that is happening, the British are drawing the right conclusions. In favor of high-precision weapons, and if not high-precision, then highly mobile.
“When you talk about artillery, you immediately think of a howitzer because that’s what everyone thinks of. Actually, we are talking about an artillery system. And if we don't invest in every part of the artillery system, from the sensor to the commander to the weapon, then we are essentially fighting with one hand behind our back."
, — Budd.Indeed, long-term untargeted shelling, the result of which was “lunar landscapes”, and not a destroyed enemy, is already history. There, in NATO, they understand this very well. And since they are doing quite well with high-precision weapons, apparently we should expect the appearance of light and medium highly mobile systems.
An 80-120 mm mortar based on an all-terrain vehicle - this option has been in operation for a long time, since ready-made samples are shown at exhibitions. Obviously, it’s up to light artillery systems based on off-road trucks or high-speed tracked vehicles that can effectively deliver 100-120 mm guns to positions. Why is that? They are lighter and therefore more mobile.
A very interesting tactical situation has developed in the Northern Military District, which experts from different countries cannot ignore.
Aviation, if it operates, does so exclusively in the front-line zone, since air defense systems simply do not allow it to go further.
Air defense systems cannot be located near the front line, since they are being targeted drones and anti-radar missiles from aircraft.
Artillery cannot work actively for a long time, since MLRS, OTRK and all the same drones are starting to work on it. Drones have actually replaced aviation in this regard.
The MLRS and OTRK systems are doing quite well. Mainly because they don't need much time to prepare and fire.
The drone, His Highness the drone, is today a more lethal weapon than a howitzer. Yes, it doesn't fly that far. But it carries almost the same amount of explosives, and we’re not even talking about accuracy. The accuracy of a kamikaze drone in the front-line area surpasses even guided missiles. Well, the UAV costs much less than the Excalibur or Krasnopol.
True, there is also a government for drones, we talked about this recently. And the Ukrainian military, oddly enough, agrees with our point of view. And at the forum, Lieutenant Colonel Patskan of the Armed Forces of Ukraine stated that one of the urgent needs of Ukraine from industry is acoustic detectors that can determine the location of enemy artillery batteries in areas where Russia has reliable electronic warfare systems. And there are many electronic warfare systems, so in the counteraction zone, the Ukrainian military would still like to have at least something that could give an advantage over the Russian army.
In addition, Patskan also dreamed of drones that would be more resistant to interference from our side.
Total
Artillery has lost the field of modern battle to counter-battery systems. These are radars, drones and other sensors in combination with artillery barrels, OTRK, MLRS and UAVs. Detection, suppression and destruction of an artillery battery in modern combat is a matter of a few minutes.
Now artillerymen from many countries will have to rack their brains to develop new tactics for using artillery on the battlefield in modern conditions. And yes, perhaps new types of weapons will appear.
However, this does not yet write off howitzers and cannons and does not retire them. In less technologically advanced conflicts, the artillery shell will continue to play a very, very significant role. But, let me emphasize, this is when rebels in Africa will fight against governments or terrorists in the Middle East against countries in the region. In conflicts in more developed countries, artillery will have much less weight.
And yes, you will definitely have to forget about the useless transfer of shells (even very cheap ones) in the “shoot there before lunch” style. But this is the normal course of history.
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