China will defeat the US in an air war over Taiwan

This material is a kind of generalization of what I read on American resources such as National Interest, The Drive, Air & Space Power Journal, Air Force Magazine, that is, resources where there are many authors and experts who have actually flown.

And on these resources, from time to time, discussions begin on questions like “Who will win, when the time comes?” and stuff like that. And, I must say, the Americans look very soberly at aviation things. And the end result was quite interesting, although somewhat one-sided. It is clear that due to the fact that no analogues could be found on the Chinese side.

So, the Americans are 101% sure that over the past 20 years China has simply been bending over backwards in order to achieve some kind of theoretical parity with the US Air Force. Here we will immediately agree that the US Air Force means both the US Air Force and the naval aviation of the US Navy, since it is with naval aviation that we will have to deal first.

Nevertheless, the Pentagon seriously considers the PLA Air Force to be a very real competitor to the US Air Force.

If we consider a hypothetical battle in the skies over Taiwan, then indeed, the PLA Air Force has many chances to defeat the Americans. Mainly due to a larger number of aircraft.

Now someone will think: the United States has more aircraft than China could ever dream of. Yes it is. If we take and count fighter-bombers, then:

- Boeing F/A-18 of all modifications: 765 pcs. (Fleet)
- F-15 of all modifications: 283 pcs. (BBC)
- F-16 of all modifications: 578 pcs. (BBC)
- F-22A: 165 pcs. (BBC)
- F-35A: 334 pcs. (BBC)
It turns out 2 125 airplanes. Fighter-bombers. Armada, however...

What's up with China? Everything is a little more modest there:

- Chengdu J-10: 24 pcs. (Fleet)
- Shenyang J-11: 72 pcs. (Fleet)
- Shenyang J-15: 24 pcs. (Fleet)
- Xian JH-7: 124 pcs. (Fleet)
- Su-30MKK: 24 pcs. (Fleet)
- Chengdu J-20: 150 pcs. (BBC)
- Su-30MKK: 72 pcs. (BBC)
- Su-35: 24 pcs. (BBC)
- Shenyang J-11: 225 pcs. (BBC)
- Shenyang J-16: 250 pcs. (BBC)
- Chengdu J-10: 565 pcs. (BBC)

Total: 1 554 PC. without taking into account the frankly old models of aircraft based on the MiG-21, of which another three hundred, no less, can be collected.

And here it becomes clear that China actually has more aircraft. Really, how many numbers can the US allocate? So, on paper, their armada is simply terrifying, but here’s the problem: from the shores of the USA to Taiwan, 11 km in a straight line, from China – 500 km.

That is, China, if it presses, will be able to raise 70% of its quantity. Even 1 aircraft is a lot. And the USA? But the USA won’t be able to!

Of course, the Americans have a certain number of aircraft in the region at air bases in South Korea and Japan. The bases of Misawa, Yokota and Kadena (Japan) plus Osan and Kunsan in South Korea are the concentration of forces in the region.

But not many aircraft are stationed there. Separate squadrons and parts of air wings, and an air wing (3 squadrons) - in our case this is not really that much.

The mighty and terrible American navy with its aircraft carriers is also a relative matter.

Let’s take the average to make it easier to calculate: one aircraft carrier takes a hundred aircraft. Exactly half of the US aircraft carriers, that is, five units, operate on the Pacific coast. But who ever saw all five ready for a hike? Some are undergoing repairs, some are undergoing testing after repairs, in general, in the best case scenario - 3 aircraft carriers. And you need to leave something in reserve just in case, right?

In general, if you prepare (and here everything always happens unexpectedly), then the United States could prepare five hundred aircraft. Not more. On the decks of aircraft carriers, at airfields in Taiwan, Japan, and Korea.

Therefore we confirm first American conclusion: China could surpass the US with more aircraft.

Many American sources of various kinds circulated rumors about plans developed by Chinese generals. An air war that brings Taiwan to its knees in 96 hours and cuts down its military structure to the roots - have you heard? It was, yes.

Let me quote from one respected American magazine:

China needs an air force large enough to overwhelm any territorial defenses of Taiwan, as well as to protect its territory and invading forces from likely military responses from the United States and its regional allies.

That is, the Pentagon is seriously considering a “probable military response” against Chinese territory? Of course not. The United States really doesn’t have enough planes for this, and without them any operation against China looks frivolous. Suffice it to remember what forces were brought in against Iraq and Libya, and there neither air defense nor air force could hold a candle to the PLA.

A special point: military manufacturers from China have not only built a sufficient number of aircraft, but also expanded their technological prowess. China has built a series of fifth-generation combat aircraft that aim to compete with the American F-22 and F-35. Many analysts argue that Chinese fifth-generation military aircraft are not as good and stealth as American ones, but...

But it's not that. China does not need to build perfect and ideal ones. It’s enough to just build good enough planes, which is what the Chinese are doing.

And here we must remember the old doctrine, which was once voiced by the Great Helmsman Mao: “quantity has its own quality”. This applies here in full and I don’t even want to argue. Historical examples are through the roof.

Let's not go far, just remember the wonderful German Tanks from the Second World War Pz-V "Panther" and Pz-VI "Tiger". The pinnacle of German tank building, excellent optics, simply magnificent guns, armor from Krupp - so what? And nothing. 1500 Tigers and 6000 Panthers were nothing compared to 35 T-000s. The best illustration, in my opinion, of Mao Zedong’s principle.

The fact that Chinese planes are not as sophisticated as American ones is also an advantage for China. Unfortunately for Americans. Their aircraft can be replaced at a much faster rate and at lower material cost than the US can produce, repair and replace its own aircraft.

Take the F-22 Raptor for example.

In every war games scenario the Pentagon pursues, the appearance of even a small number of Raptors could tip a potential battle with Chinese aircraft in America's favor. In theory.

The catch is that the number of these aircraft is limited. And while these planes can do more than previous generations of warplanes, if they encounter significantly more Chinese fighters, they will eventually be shot down. Moreover, China's stockpile of stealth military aircraft will surpass America's. No, not tomorrow, not right away, but the battle for Taiwan is not planned for next year.

As for the F-35, which is supposed to replace the aging fleet of fourth-generation combat aircraft, there are many problems with this machine.

First, the US still believes that the F-35 is an open aircraft, as China stole detailed blueprints for the aircraft back in 2005 during a cyber operation known as “Titan Rain.” Accordingly, the Chinese had enough time to study the aircraft in detail, as well as develop measures to counter it.

Second, the F-35 is not nearly as good an air-to-air fighter as the F-22.

However, former US President Barack Obama stopped production of the F-2009 in 22 “to save costs.” But the F-35 is a much more expensive aircraft than most Chinese aircraft to produce and maintain. If airplanes are lost faster than America's industrial capacity can replace them in wartime, then, alas, the airplanes disappear and strategic vulnerabilities are created in American defenses.

Second conclusion: China has "home field advantage".

The same Comrade Mao once said: "geography is destiny". China's targets, be it northern India, the South China Sea, the East China Sea, or Taiwan, are close to China's shores. And at the same time, these areas are remote from America.

It turns out that the U.S. military must deploy its strike power over vast distances and rely on regional partners for basing and refueling rights to get its forces into conflict zones with China without interference. Beijing has advantages on its territory over the Americans and enormous industrial capacity that allows it to churn out military aircraft like iPhones. And transfer them to the theater of military operations as quickly as possible. Logistics in general is more important today than ever.

But there’s nothing to be done here; this problem has plagued the United States since the country’s entry into World War II. Who is to blame for the fact that the United States, as a self-proclaimed superpower, has extensive interests in almost all regions of the world, while China's main strategic interests remain close to Chinese territory?

Of course, this means that a possible war with the West will most likely be fought closer to China's borders.

But it does mean China can easily concentrate its regional forces to deliver a more powerful strike against distracted, stretched, and stretched U.S. and allied forces.

Unfortunately, logistics imbalances and inefficiencies plague the American military supply chain. In fact, the president of leading US defense contractor Raytheon chided US politicians over the summer for risking war with China.

This is because much of the American defense supply chain runs through China. Will Beijing allow the US military open access to wartime supplies in the event of a conflict between the United States and China? Do not make me laugh. China keeps America on a very short leash in this regard. And all that remains is to place bets on what will happen to supplies in the event of a conflict over Taiwan, will China cut off oxygen to the Americans or will it, like its northern neighbor, pose as a “reliable supplier”?

But China has no such problems. Yes, there are undoubtedly vulnerabilities. But in our particular case with a decent air force fleet China and the proximity of targets to Chinese bases and airfields, China could defeat the US alliance in an air war over Taiwan. With America's possible loss of air dominance over Taiwan, China will have a free hand to do whatever it wants against Taiwan's defenders, and Taiwan will be isolated from its Western allies for the duration of the invasion unless America attempts to significantly escalate the situation with China . Which is actually quite unlikely.

It is clear that all this is nothing more than theoretical calculations. China is not going to resolve the issue with Taiwan by force. This has been stated repeatedly. Although, let’s be honest, many politicians in our world made similar statements, but in reality everything was completely different.

But in the event of a collision between two air forces, the advantage will really be on the Chinese side. Yes, Chinese planes are not as good as American ones in terms of engines and weapons. Yes, American aircraft are more technically advanced and, in general, the Americans built good combat vehicles when Chinese aviation engineers simply did not exist as a class.

However, China has on its side a large number of, albeit not the most modern, aircraft and human resources that can compensate for combat losses. It is clear that the pilot to replace the deceased F-35 pilot will take months to train. And the Chinese can (and probably do) train hundreds, if not thousands, of pilots for licensed Su-27s. And produce airplanes in much the same way.

A couple of tough American F-35 pilots can do a lot. Even a lot. But ten J-20s will definitely be taken by numbers and skill. And twenty J-10s will be taken in number.

In general, there is something to think about before promising any US assistance to Taiwan. And it’s quite good that the guys on the other side of the ocean understand what they can get themselves into.

Comments

[Toucan]

Very controversial conclusions; the author, who is not an expert in the field of aviation, overlooks the superiority of the United States in the field of information control systems and guided weapons. The combat potential of the Taiwanese Air Force and its weak air defense are also not taken into account. In addition, the outbreak of an air battle between the United States and China would mean a full-scale conflict between the countries, and Beijing needs this least of all.

[Aerodrome]

Quote: Tucan

The author is not an aviation expert

and here there are no experts at all, on any topic, only mother’s. Somehow they gradually disappeared from the site. Although, the KAA BOA remained from the submarine.

[Vladimir_2U]

Quote: Aerodrome

and here there are no experts at all, on any topic, only mother’s. Somehow they gradually disappeared from the site. Although

What kind of people are you?

[UAZ 452]

and here there are no experts at all, on any topic, only mother’s. somehow disappeared little by little from the site

Is it only from this site? Now it is impossible to understand where expert opinion ends and discredit begins. Therefore, the number of people willing to express this opinion has decreased everywhere.

[Vladimir_2U]

Quote: Tucan

In addition, the outbreak of an air battle between the United States and China would mean a full-scale conflict between the countries, and Beijing needs this least of all.

You might think the US needs this.

Quote: Tucan

The combat potential of the Taiwanese Air Force and its weak air defense are also not taken into account.

Is the reach of Taiwan from the mainland taken into account?

Quote: Tucan

overlooks US superiority in the field of information control systems and guided weapons.

Where do you get such confidence in superiority? The RF Armed Forces, for example, quite confidently overcome this superiority in the Northeast Military District, with a clear lag behind China even in closed communications.

[Civil]

1. Apart from the Western media, no one is pushing the topic of a possible conflict over Taiwan. There are only calm articles with sober assessments in the Chinese media.
2. The PRC understands perfectly well that it is only a matter of time before Taiwan himself voluntarily will merge with mainland China. The PRC is Taiwan's main trading and cultural partner. In both places, the Chinese want unification, the only question is the conditions.
3. The example of Russia and the former Ukrainian SSR once again confirms that the world hegemons, after the 2 World Wars, rarely fight directly. Preferring to move pawns.

[runway-1]

Apart from the Western media, no one is pushing the topic of a possible conflict over Taiwan.

Vadim, it feels like this topic is being discussed more here than in the notorious West...

[Doccor18]

Quote: Vladimir_2U

You might think the US needs this.

Of course, all the Democrats want is to drag the Chinese into a long-term conflict. Then Chinese exports will collapse, and behind them, under the weight of a wave of problems/sanctions, the entire economy. At the height of the crisis, the old government will be swept away, and the Anglo-Americans will install a new “tame” one, which will begin to “develop democracy”... It is very good that the wise Chinese rulers have not yet succumbed to various provocations of the “world gendarme”...

To the article: simply comparing the number of aircraft in China and the United States is too primitive. Democrats will never directly fight; there are a lot of “partners” for this in the region. And for the US Navy and Air Force, the only task left is to ensure the supply of everything necessary, and they will definitely cope with this task, because they have accumulated colossal experience.

[UAZ 452]

Of course, all the Democrats want is to drag the Chinese into a long-term conflict.

Then Chinese exports will collapse, and behind them, under the weight of a wave of problems/sanctions, the entire economy. At the height of the crisis, the old government will be swept away, and the Anglo-Americans will install a new “tame” one, which will begin to “develop democracy”... It is very good that the wise Chinese rulers have not yet succumbed to various provocations of the “world gendarme”...

But ours fell for it... We are just gradually approaching the third point of this plan, which was by no means drawn up by our geostrategists, and by no means for the benefit of our country.

[Andrey Dibrov]

This will not work in neutral waters. Greetings from the Houthis.

[Doccor18]

Quote: Andrey Dibrov

Greetings from the Houthis.

And have the Houthis sunk many warships?

[Very old]

Is it worth responding to an airstrike in kind when you can “knock” on airfields? in those waters there are AUGs with
nuclear weapons. I think the Chinese are not out of their minds.

[K9_SWAT]

Doesn't China have nuclear weapons? I don’t understand this groveling before the AUG. They are very effective against the Papuans, but they are already afraid to go against a more or less developed enemy. The AUG may be able to repulse an attack by a dozen missiles, but that’s not a fact. But the impact of tens and hundreds of anti-ship missiles is definitely gone. Will the Americans take risks? No! They will go to China to negotiate! And they will curse Kissinger (or whoever was there) for “opening China to America.” They themselves raised a competitor. They built factories there themselves! They transferred technology themselves. Otherwise, the Chinese would still be pouring metal in their yards using medieval technology.

[Revolver]

Quote: Tucan

Very controversial conclusions, the author, who is not an expert in the field of aviation, overlooks

a lot of things.
American UDCs with F-35s installed on them became light aircraft carriers. The author did not take them into account.
The same thing with the Japanese "helicopter-carrying destroyers".
Each of the above ships has an escort of at least 4 destroyers with AEGIS. And there are more in the AUG. This means that the Chinese litaks in their affected area are measured in minutes, or even seconds.
Japan has an air force, which also cannot be written off.
South Korea will try not to get involved in this, if only out of fear that Xi might say “fas” to Kim. But if Uncle Sam presses very hard, he might fit in.
The American satellite constellation is superior to the Chinese, and the number and quality of AWACS aircraft and drones are incomparable. So situational awareness is not on China’s side, but the NWO has shown how important this is.
The USAF also has B-2 Spirit stealth bombers in commercial quantities. If they launch from afar what they have, at Chinese airfields, including those far from the theater of military operations, the Chinese will not even understand where it came from, and Taiwan will shout “wait, we don’t have that yet, we’ll launch it when We deem it necessary."
So the balance is by no means so clearly on the Chinese side.
In general, when it starts, stock up on popcorn and make yourself comfortable in front of the blue screens. We'll see.

[Egor53]

It is also necessary to take into account the complete superiority of Chinese army personnel. The American military is extremely cowardly, almost running away to resign. In addition, LGBT people are very common in the American army.

[puteovii]

Dreams. In the stories of US warriors there are enough examples of both valor and cowardice. And the buttons of the UAV are pressed by an LGBT warrior or a straight man. On the side. The warrior has changed. The share of faerteam to logisticians and computer scientists is 1/2.

[UAZ 452]

Do you judge the superiority of the personnel by the photo where Chinese pilots march orderly around the airfield, and the planes stand in a line, wing to wing? The SVO has already shown by our example what such “beauty” and drill bearing are worth.

[Russian Bear_2]

In response, the Chinese may strike at the bases, or at the US territory itself with a vigorous loaf.

[Revolver]

They won't dare. If only because the response can fly into the “3 Gorges” dam, and as a result the wave will wash away millions of Chinese people along with cities, villages, and farmland into the sea. You don’t even need a cannonball for the dam; conventional missiles will suffice. And if they decide to respond unconventionally, then you can believe that America has enough potential to glaze, if not all of China, then its coastal part, where more than half the population is concentrated.
And by the way, it is quite possible that Taiwan will find the means to hit the dam even without resorting to American participation. This alone should restrain Xi from acting rashly.

[K9_SWAT]

Only this was not written by the author of the article, but by former and current US pilots. Plus experts (or “experts”), Western ones, who are closely tied to the military-industrial complex.
All these BIUS are good in theory. Because they were not really tested or verified in a combat situation.

[Civil]

Quote: K9_SWAT

All these BIUS are good in theory. Because they were not really tested or verified in a combat situation.

Find out how it works at SVO. There are many articles.

[knn54]

On the US side is the EXCELLENT training of the Air Force elite - naval aviation pilots. The AUG has strong air defense.
And the author forgot about the Japanese and South Korean Air Forces, which will DEFINITELY fit in with the Yankees.
And how will India behave? True, the resources of the DPRK are not known.
A FULL-SCALE conflict with the Yankees and Co. of the PRC will not be sustainable.

[WapentakeLokki]

and no one doubts the PLA as a military force in general? If the USA & US NAVY have both victories behind them (and victory in the Pacific War in WW II is indisputable) and defeats, then what does the PLA have? the experience of the Korean War (yes, I watched blockbusters like the TsunChinsky water guard_rel film) and the unsuccessful campaign against Vietnam and.. that’s it?! for some reason they carried out PMCs in Africa but.. and THAT’S all.. the China themselves are intensively promoting the path (in their cinema) the topic that the PLA is in no way inferior to ANY army in the world, but is this really so...and isn’t China (in military affairs) a paper tiger?..and these questions cannot be clarified..''until there is blood spilled'' but for now you can argue about the jump and what kind of craft they have but...no offense...but on 22.06.1941/XNUMX/XNUMX the Red Army Air Force was quantitatively superior to the Luftwaffe and was qualitatively on par and that...it helped us in that terrible summer ...

[Bumble]

Not so long ago the Chinese fought with Indians with sticks in Tibet!!! This is the experience of war with a nuclear power!

[gsev]

Quote: WapentakeLokki

and an unsuccessful trip to Vietnam and.. that’s it?!

Why do you consider China the losing side in the war against Vietnam in the 20th century? The PRC took away islands in the South China Sea from Vietnam. During the Vietnamese-Chinese land conflict, only Vietnamese special forces more or less showed their worth. Vietnamese artillery demonstrated rather poor training compared to the Chinese. Vietnam brought all but one of its best divisions into the battle, and at the end of the conflict did not dare to attack the Chinese troops entrenched in convenient positions on Vietnamese territory. By the end of the conflict, the PRC had quite a lot of troops from its untouched reserve. Another thing is that the PRC is playing for the long haul and it did not strive for a century-long conflict with Vietnam.

[Vicontas]

Tucan, who said that Taiwan will begin to include its potential for a fight with China? Just recently there was information that representatives of Beijing and the Taiwanese “Kuomintang” met, settled all questions and agreed that the “Kuomintang” would support the unification of Taiwan with China according to the Hong Kong scenario. So Beijing will not start a war. Rather, the United States will start - after all, they have 25 year .this is the year of the beginning of the lag behind China! And either they lose their hegemonic status, or they eliminate their problem in the form of China! And by the 25th year their “arrow” is already blocked. In this fight, I'm betting on China - for some reason everyone forgot that the Chinese made hypersound and put it on their anti-ship missiles. Plus, they have enough satellites to target the target. Thus, US aircraft carrier groups can be hit in the Atlantic, 2500 kilometers away to the battlefield! The same pleasure can be enjoyed by US allies who wish to join them!

[gsev]

Quote: Tucan

Very controversial conclusions; the author, who is not an expert in the field of aviation, overlooks the superiority of the United States in the field of information control systems and guided weapons.

The Chinese themselves believe that the Chinese Air Force became capable of defeating the Taiwanese Air Force only after 2010. Against the background of this statement, it is hardly worth counting on the fact that the Chinese Air Force was able to catch up with the US Air Force in 10 years.

[Andrey Dibrov]

So the author is talking about the same thing.
Half of the F- will have to be kept, stupidly, in reserve and not counted on them at all. And the rest is wildly “saving.”
Because the loss of an aircraft out of two is a loss of 50% and not “one aircraft”. That is, the good old pen is brave. A couple of hours of business - and that’s it. No duty flights with “reserves” and other “tactics”. In principle, even Taipei will not be possible in three days.
Hello mushrooms.

[Mikhail Maslov]

I completely agree with the post above, I should also add that the author indicated the bases around China and who will not allow aviation to be transferred to these bases in advance. And for some reason the forces of South Korea and Japan and Australia are not taken, which will act on the side of the United States, and this is a completely different situation.

[spirit]

And then there is India, which will gladly stab you in the back when you send all your air forces in the fight against Uncle Sam and company

[alexoff]

Well, in this conflict, the PRC will attack first, and as you know, initiative is a good thing, NATO planes on the ground do not cope well with missiles. Here the question is more about Chinese intelligence and NATO counterintelligence than about measuring the number of aircraft

[U-58]

Of course, China has an advantage. Let's say the United States will build up an aircraft-carrying fleet. The flotillas of the satellites - Australia and New Zealand - will drive up, plus support ships from South Korea and Japan to keep their pants up.
The same China uses its old MiG-21s as a mosquito fleet to “overload” the air defense of the American armada, using modern technology for raids.
Even without tactics and arithmetic, all the advantages of the PLA are immediately visible even to a non-specialist.
Another thing is that the decisive role will be played not by aircraft, but by ground invasion forces. And here China has even more trump cards.

[dementor873]

Quote: Tucan

Very controversial conclusions; the author, who is not an expert in the field of aviation, overlooks the superiority of the United States in the field of information control systems and guided weapons. The combat potential of the Taiwanese Air Force and its weak air defense are also not taken into account. In addition, the outbreak of an air battle between the United States and China would mean a full-scale conflict between the countries, and Beijing needs this least of all.

How will Taiwan's logistics be supported, how long will it last on its own reserves? China doesn’t even need to go to sea to sink caravans.
South Caucasus will fit in and I immediately think it will get swept away from the north and the United States will have to save South Caucasus from the UK.
There are US bases in the Philippines. Apparently they are looking forward to becoming a second Vietnam? I highly doubt it.
Of the entire list, only the United States has nuclear weapons, and how will the Americans respond to the use of nuclear weapons at the same base in the Philippines? Will they strike Beijing or decide to give tiao to Taiwan?
The example of Ukraine clearly shows that NATO is in no hurry to fight on its own, and their supplies, to put it mildly, are already drying up; reserves are not enough. But Ukraine had strong air defense and a land border with NATO and a population of about 40 million? Did it help them a lot?
The experience of US wars shows that they attack with superiority. What advantage will they have essentially against mainland China off its coast?
The description in the article sounds more like a World War III scenario than a regional conflict.

[zyablik.olga]

Quote: dementor873

How will Taiwan's logistics be supported, how long will it last on its own reserves? China doesn’t even need to go to sea to sink caravans.

A war between China and the United States will also lead to a blockade of the Chinese coast by the combined fleets of the United States and its allies and the collapse of the Chinese economy. As you know, the main trading partner of China is the United States, which accounts for the lion's share of Chinese imports. And the Republic of China is very strongly integrated into the PRC economy. Although the PRC also experienced a rotation of power, the Chinese leadership is not so crazy as to start a war with an unpredictable result.

[Negro]

Quote: zyablik.olga

As you know, the main trading partner of China is the United States,

EU. However, the difference is small.

Quote: zyablik.olga

nevertheless, the Chinese elite are not so crazy as to organize a war with an unpredictable result.

Cough cough. About two years ago we heard the same thing about the leadership of some other country, I don’t remember exactly which one.

[bk0010]

Quote: Negro

Cough cough. About two years ago we heard the same thing about the leadership of some other country, I don’t remember exactly which one.

And a hundred and odd years ago too. Before the First World War they said that a big war in Europe was impossible, everyone was too closely connected economically and dynastically.

[Negro]

Quote: bk0010

Before the First World War they said that a big war in Europe was impossible, everyone was too closely connected economically and dynastically.

Well, some have wised up since then, some have not.

[alexoff]

Quote: zyablik.olga

The war between China and the United States will also lead to a blockade of the Chinese coast by the combined fleets of the United States and its allies

It’s strange, but China doesn’t have missiles, you know, why shouldn’t the American fleet repeat Moscow’s feat? I’m generally silent about Chinese surface drones.

Quote: zyablik.olga

As you know, the main trading partner of China is the United States, which accounts for the lion's share of Chinese imports.

Well, yes, the Chinese will not receive numbers on their account, the USA and the EU will not receive Chinese goods, but it will only be bad for China

[Kmon]

Are you comparing the American and our fleets? Yes, you are a joker.

And of course it will be bad for everyone. And that is why there is no point in China starting. He does not live by the principle “let the house burn, as long as the neighbor’s also burns.”

[alexoff]

Is the American fleet invulnerable? The Chinese have slightly more missiles than the Ukrainian Armed Forces, and not just missiles. And then at VO there is a tradition that ours only defend, and they only attack, because only their missiles and our armor, but on the contrary we will not check, we are not like that

[Kmon]

It has much better personnel, missile defense, electronic warfare and reconnaissance. Not to mention the number, which allows you to concentrate the striking fist at the desired point. But the Chinese fleet is still very bad with AWACS. Those. There will be big problems with target designation. No, they will certainly sink some ships. But victory is very doubtful even over the US Navy alone. And they will not be alone - Korea, Australia, Japan... Plus aviation and anti-ship missiles of Taiwan.

[alexoff]

Do the Chinese launch quite a few satellites, or do they not count? In the event of a direct collision with China, American AWACS are a fairly clearly visible target, no longer protected by the borders of other states. China has an unimaginable number of all sorts of barges and other troughs, which it is ready to use in different ways. As for the US fleet, we need to check here, otherwise it may be like a trophy, it sells well and is easily signed, but what will happen in the event of a real cruise missile attack is unknown. In addition, in this conflict, China will have the advantage of the first step, and whether Korea and Japan can do it without oil is a big question

[Negro]

Quote: dementor873

Of the entire list, only the United States has nuclear weapons, and how will the Americans respond to the use of nuclear weapons at the same base in the Philippines? Will they strike Beijing or decide to give tiao to Taiwan?

You see. The bomb itches all the time only for those who have no chance in a normal conflict. North Korea there, or the Russian Federation. If a country aspires to the status of at least a regional military force (as the PRC does), then it must be able to handle a limited conflict. The use of nuclear weapons in a regional conflict is an automatic loss: even great geopoliticians understand this, and communists are believed to be smarter.

[alexoff]

I wonder why the United States has been combing its nuclear weapons lately? Are they not taking it out?

[bk0010]

Quote: Negro

You see. The bomb itches all the time only for those who have no chance in a normal conflict. North Korea there, or the Russian Federation.

You offended the Americans! They were the ones who made the first noise. Or "this is different"?

Quote: Negro

The use of nuclear weapons in a regional conflict is an automatic loss: even great geopoliticians understand this, and communists are believed to be smarter.

Nonsense, this is just management whining. Pissing to upset all the bastards. The states will crack down on someone, so what? Who from the “world community” will condemn them and what will they do?

[Kmon]

Well, think about why the states didn’t go crazy on Korea, Vietnam, Afghanistan, Iraq or Yugoslavia (although they had generals who suggested this). The state of affairs has changed a lot since 1945; any country that used nuclear weapons will become an international outcast.

[bk0010]

Quote: Kmon

Well, think about why the states didn’t give a shit about Korea or Vietnam or Afghanistan or Iraq or Yugoslavia

They completely gathered about Vietnam, but the Vietnamese offensive failed and the states refused. For the rest, there was no point.

Quote: Kmon

The state of affairs has changed a lot since 1945; any country that used nuclear weapons will become an international outcast.

And the states?

[Kmon]

No, we didn’t gather. Some generals offered but nothing more. It made sense, especially in Korea, and yet MacArthur was fired from his post for one such proposal.

In 1945, nuclear weapons were seen as just a big bomb, not a forbidden weapon. In fact, it was precisely thanks to its practical application that it was informally banned - everyone saw what it was capable of.

[Negro]

Quote: bk0010

And the states?

Why would they use nuclear weapons?

However, there is one comrade (only one for now) who worked a lot to ensure that the glass transition took place personally without protests from the peace-loving public. However, most likely they will take out the chubby one without nuclear weapons if the need arises.

[alexoff]

The Israelis at VO are very fond of threatening to glaze Iran, do you think they will become outcasts if this happens?

[Negro]

Quote: bk0010

They were the ones who made the first noise. Or "this is different"?

There's a different story there. The money has been spent, we need to account for it.

Quote: bk0010

The states will crack down on someone, so what?

In fact, fans of Americans like to cite dozens of US military operations after WWII. And you know, they never “got nuts” even once. Moreover, any field marshals of victory there who rushed around with such ideas were removed from their posts out of harm’s way.

[alexoff]

Quote: Negro

In fact, fans of Americans like to cite dozens of US military operations after WWII. And you know, they never “got nuts” even once. Moreover, any field marshals of victory there who rushed around with such ideas were removed from their posts out of harm’s way.

So why is the “Ohio” being driven in droves and demonstratively today? Why are atomic bombs being improved? Why did you remember about replacing the ICBM? Field marshals of victory were found in the Pentagon? I won’t ask about the plans of the American military like “Dropshot” and who shot Westmoreland

[Kmon]

Then someone started rattling nuclear weapons. I won’t point fingers, but the list of statements that are difficult to regard as anything other than threats is easy to Google.

It would be very strange if the Amers (and us too) did not have plans in case of TMB. Westmoreland left South Vietnam in June 1968. And what a coincidence - almost immediately after his nuclear strike plan was not supported. Most likely he was politely asked to resign.

[Negro]

Quote: Kmon

Westmoreland left South Vietnam in June 1968. And what a coincidence - almost immediately after his nuclear strike plan was not supported. Most likely he was politely asked to resign.

I have to remind you that we learned about the “nuclear strike plan” 10 years ago from progressive journalists. And these are not always sincere people, to put it mildly.

On the other hand, we know for sure that General Westmoreland did not have nuclear weapons. That is, according to progressive journalists, his headquarters was engaged in writing a hoodlit in the genre of combat science fiction. Which partly explains the not very successful successes of the Americans in Vietnam.

[gsev]

Quote: Negro

On the other hand, we know for sure that General Westmoreland did not have nuclear weapons.

During the Vietnam War, Vietnamese special forces carried out an unsuccessful operation to capture a US Army officer responsible for the use of nuclear weapons in Vietnam. This battle did not take place in Cam Ranh or Saigon, but in a fairly wooded area.

[alexoff]

Quote: Kmon

Then someone started rattling nuclear weapons. I won’t point fingers, but the list of statements that are difficult to regard as anything other than threats is easy to Google.

So it turns out that the Americans have also actively rattled nuclear weapons, and in some places quite a long time ago, having, for example, withdrawn from the medium-range treaty and become preoccupied with nuclear arsenals?

Quote: Kmon

And what a coincidence - almost immediately after his nuclear strike plan was not supported. Most likely he was politely asked to resign.

Or maybe he left because all his plans were rejected, and the main thing for him was to cut the Ho Chi Minh trail and invade Laos?

[Negro]

Quote from alexoff

who directed Westmoreland?

I don't remember Westmoreland using nuclear weapons. On the contrary, he managed to get into the SVO through attrition.

Quote from alexoff

Field marshals of victory were found in the Pentagon? I won’t ask about the American military’s “Dropshot” plans.

Naturally. After WWII, Eisenhower and Bradley destroyed American ground forces in a few years and essentially left only strategic aviation. By Korea, the Americans didn’t really have anything except the nuclear baton; the IS-2 was crossed out; the Shermans were confiscated from museums. Eisenhower, Bradley and the Marine Corps would have been destroyed, but the fleet simply fought them off out of a sense of contradiction - although he himself had little understanding of why boots on earth were needed in a brave new world.

The idea of ​​a limited war - Kennedy, a professional army - Nixon.

Quote from alexoff

So why is the “Ohio” being driven in droves and demonstratively today? Why are atomic bombs being improved? Why did you remember about replacing ICBMs?

Some strange questions. You don’t listen to the Commander-in-Chief, but the Americans do. And they look.

If you don't know, the state of Florida is in the background.

[alexoff]

Quote: Negro

I don't remember Westmoreland using nuclear weapons.

They say he wrote proposals to the president so that they would give them to him, but of course the journalists are lying, and you know better from your sofa.

Quote: Negro

After WWII, Eisenhower and Bradley destroyed American ground forces in a few years and essentially left only strategic aviation.

After WWII and the USSR, the army was greatly reduced, but there was still demobilization. What's with the vigorous loaves? How many of them did Kennedy accumulate? Who developed the peripheral strategy there? Oh yes, the evil USSR, and the good USA simply reacted

Quote: Negro

Some strange questions. You don’t listen to the Commander-in-Chief, but the Americans do. And they look.

So they only remembered this in 2018? And they decided to rattle in response, abandoning the ABM treaty in advance?

[Negro]

Quote from alexoff

They say he wrote proposals to the president so that they would give them to him, but of course the journalists are lying, and you know better from your sofa.

Naturally. It's enough for me to know that neither Johnson nor Westmoreland said anything about it. And now that everyone is dead, you can write whatever you want.

Quote from alexoff

After WWII and the USSR, the army was greatly reduced, but there was still demobilization.

The USSR decreased, the USA did not have a single division staffed in 45. Neither tank nor infantry.

Quote from alexoff

How many of them did Kennedy accumulate?

As long as I could, there was no army. In this regard, the former United States resembles the current Russian Federation.

However, the potential conflict between the USA and the USSR is not the regional limited conflict that was discussed. You and your fantasies are taxiing to 3WW again.

Quote from alexoff

So they only remembered this in 2018? And they decided to rattle in response, abandoning the ABM treaty in advance?

What do regional conflicts have to do with it? Honoring treaties with a long-vanished country is a pretty stupid idea. And my grandfather gave me a gift just now, he signed START-3.

Yes, not food for the horse.

[alexoff]

Quote: Negro

It's enough for me to know that neither Johnson nor Westmoreland said anything about it.

and there not only one journalist said something, but your faith is certainly strong

Quote: Negro

The United States did not have a single division staffed in 45. Neither tank nor infantry.

How many divisions were there in the USSR equipped at the 1945 level?

Quote: Negro

As long as I could, there was no army. In this regard, the former United States resembles the current Russian Federation.

that is, it was not the saber rattling of a country that did not have enough strength?

Quote: Negro

However, the potential conflict between the USA and the USSR is not the regional limited conflict that was discussed. You and your fantasies are taxiing to 3WW again.

This is how it all started with the fact that only those who have nothing else rattle their loaves vigorously.

Quote: Negro

What do regional conflicts have to do with it?

So isn’t Russia versus the USA a regional conflict? Who cares about Florida, for which the American command and you personally were so worried?

[Negro]

Quote from alexoff

and there not only one journalist said something, but your faith is certainly strong

Again. What does “faith” have to do with it?
1. In 1968, nuclear weapons were not used.
2. American journalists usually, and since Obama’s second term, universally hate their country.

There is nothing to discuss here at all. The use of nuclear weapons is a noticeable thing, it’s hard to miss.

Quote from alexoff

How many divisions were there in the USSR equipped at the 1945 level?

The Soviet division of 45 is a reinforced regiment (or let’s say, by English standards, just a regiment). Any of the 60 post-war Soviet mechanized divisions is stronger than any Soviet rifle corps of the 45 year.

Quote from alexoff

that is, it was not the saber rattling of a country that did not have enough strength?

It was a heap of military, diplomatic, and political mistakes, which together in Korea and Vietnam cost the United States about a quarter of its losses in WWII. Despite the fact that there are a lot of questions about the performance of the American ground forces in WWII against the backdrop of their own fleet and aviation.

Quote from alexoff

This is how it all started with the fact that only those who have nothing else rattle their loaves vigorously.

After Korea - yes.

Quote from alexoff

So isn’t Russia versus the USA a regional conflict? Who cares about Florida, for which the American command and you personally were so worried?

The strategic deterrence system is one thing (ICBMs from Ohio there), conventional forces are another. The difference is that conventional forces are needed to FIGHT, and strategic nuclear forces are needed to NOT FIGHT.

[alexoff]

Quote: Negro

1. In 1968, nuclear weapons were not used.

Now no one uses nuclear weapons either, or do you have other data?

Quote: Negro

2. American journalists usually, and since Obama’s second term, universally hate their country.

do you feel offended? American journalists have always been quite critical of their country.

Quote: Negro

After Korea - yes.

Well, that is, now the United States is rattling Ohio out of impotence?

Quote: Negro

The strategic deterrence system is one thing (ICBMs from Ohio there), conventional forces are another.

well just like ours

Quote: Negro

The difference is that conventional forces are needed to FIGHT, and strategic nuclear forces are needed to NOT FIGHT.

just like with us, was the helmsman really going to fight first? he simply said that there are tools not to fight, since he doesn’t like American bases nearby, as well as strategic UAVs flying over Ukraine

[Negro]

Quote from alexoff

Now no one uses nuclear weapons either, or do you have other data?

You, I see, have forgotten how the conversation began. It began with the fact that the PRC, in the best traditions of D.A. Medvedev will launch a nuclear strike on the Philippines. Really, who else?

Quote from alexoff

American journalists have always been quite critical of their country.

Yes, American journalism after WWII consisted of 90 percent communists. But under Obama (including because of Obama, but also for other reasons) for the first time they stopped being afraid, this is striking.

Quote from alexoff

Well, that is, now the United States is rattling Ohio out of impotence?

You, apparently, are not aware, but now the Americans are not “rattling Ohio”, but are supplying tactical missiles that today fly to Sevastopol, tomorrow they can fly, say, to Voronezh, and the day after tomorrow we’ll see. As I already said, if you want to fight, then nuclear weapons only hinder you.

Quote from alexoff

just like with us, was the helmsman really going to fight first?

Where did it take you there? The Republic of China has not yet promised to restore its sovereignty over the entire territory of the country.

[Repellent]

Quote: Negro

Now the Americans... are supplying tactical missiles that today fly to Sevastopol, tomorrow they can fly, say, to Voronezh, and the day after tomorrow we’ll see

Are we all trolling? So why don’t rockets not only fly to “we’ll see,” but even to Voronezh? Something is stopping them, perhaps?

Quote: Negro

The Republic of China has not yet promised to restore its sovereignty over the entire territory of the country

What a coincidence. But the Russian Federation is not going to occupy Ukraine, guess what?

[Negro]

Quote: Repellent

Something is stopping them, perhaps?

I see you are not following the progress of things. It is known what bothers them: red lines. On the other hand, sometimes all sorts of things happen with red lines.

Quote: Repellent

But the Russian Federation is not going to

Are you already comparing the Russian Federation with the Republic of China (not to be confused with the PRC)? Oh well.
In any case, I was not interested in the plans of the Russian Federation. Neither in general, nor for you personally.

[Repellent]

Quote: Negro

It is known what bothers them: red lines. On the other hand, sometimes all sorts of things happen with red lines

Well, it seems - not with everyone. How much noise was there around Transnistria? But Transnistria is still there, as it was. Not to mention Kaliningrad transit

So your

Quote: Negro

... tactical missiles that fly to Sevastopol today can fly to, say, Voronezh tomorrow, and the day after tomorrow we’ll see

- the essence of your girlish dreams, tender, but unrealizable. Buddies

Quote: Negro

Are you already comparing the Russian Federation with the Republic of China (not to be confused with the PRC)? Oh well

I am having fun. You're not the only one

Quote: Negro

I was not interested in the plans of the Russian Federation. Neither in general nor for you personally

You're rude, my friends. Tram

[Negro]

Quote: Repellent

But Transnistria is still there, as it was.

And who has it bothered so much over the past 30 years?

Quote: Repellent

Not to mention Kaliningrad transit

What didn't you like about Kaliningrad?

Quote: Repellent

the essence of your girlish dreams, tender, but unrealizable.

I find little good in Russian and Soviet patriots, but I like your attitude towards your compatriots.

Let's see. A lot has happened in recent years. Some things came true, some didn’t.

[Mustached Kok]

Apparently you don't remember the story well. Indeed, the United States had many precedents that were condemned by the world community. Both at the level of civil society and at the level of interstate organizations such as the UN. There were even entire declarations of the same UN that condemned or even prohibited various US actions.
But the USA is simply the main (or at least second) trading partner for many countries. And most importantly, it is one of the main trading partners for other large and developed countries (some European countries, Russia, Asian countries and a couple of Central Asian countries). As a result, it turns out that they can condemn countries politically, but they cannot introduce any trade sanctions or political restrictions - since this is still your main trading partner.
And what does “trading partner” mean - and this means that a huge share of companies, firms and factories in your country that provide work and money to your citizens are tied to the resources that come from your trading partner. And if these resources become scarcer, the gigantic sector of the economy will begin to stagnate.
This is the difference in attitude towards us in comparison with the United States. We have a small contribution to the world economy. And then, most of our contribution is the sale of our resources (mainly oil and gas) to the world market. For many countries, the share of our partnership in trade is not even in the top 10. Yes, prices for gas and fuel have increased in Europe, but in the same Europe there is Norway with its oil and British BP and it is only a matter of time before they will be able to increase their production + partial coverage from Azerbaijani oil - and as a result I will be able to reduce the price to acceptable (they won’t completely return to the old prices, but they will make it low enough to live on).
That's against whom sanctions were imposed to a limited extent - it was against the USSR. For the same reason that the modern United States is condemned in a limited way. The USSR was the largest (or at least the second) trading partner for many countries of the world.
Without a strong economy and production, without tying at least regional neighbors to their economy, there can be no stability. Including stability from attempts at foreign policy influence.

[Kmon]

Um, limited? It seems that the sanctions against the USSR were tougher than the current ones. Dual-use goods were prohibited from being supplied, and a grain embargo was introduced. And ordinary non-dual goods entered the USSR with great difficulty. And they weren’t afraid to introduce it, even though he was a superpower.

[Lord of the Sheep]

The mighty and terrible American Navy with its aircraft carriers

This fleet is needed only to frighten countries that do not have a serious army. In reality, the AUG will not enter the affected area; this is more than the tactical radius of naval aircraft. And China has something to offset its advantage in aircraft carriers. Well, don’t forget about nuclear weapons. The scenario will most likely be the same as with 404 (war by proxy).

[svp67]

As always, a bunch of pieces of facts, tailored to the desired conclusion...
Modern combat is not a book knight's duel. China has a lot of “Achilles heels”, which the Americans will try to strike at.
Take, for example, the issue of providing fuel for our Air Force. The main supplies of oil and petroleum products to China come by sea, which means they are very vulnerable. Like any fuel reserves that will be attacked first...
Good and excellent Luftwaffe aircraft, by the end of the war, simply did not fly due to lack of fuel.
And so on many points.
China is capable of carrying out a quick military operation to block and seize Taiwan, but China is not yet capable of a long war, especially not just with the United States, but with a coalition of states under their control, otherwise they would not fight.

[Boycott]

What if China and the United States cut ties, and only aviation will fight? And the Chinese will not do anything against three (according to the author) aircraft carriers, neither anti-ship missiles, nor their own Navy, will they look blankly? An article about a spherical horse in a vacuum.

[HaByxoDaBHocep]

In some ways the author is right, the Americans themselves went through this, I once read a book about Saburo Sakai, one of the best pilots in Japan, they had such a training system that the pilots were one-off specimens, plus the “Zero” was quite good until 1943, but then The Americans simply crushed the Japs with a mass of planes and pilots, and even the Helkat began to surpass the Zero, but nevertheless, at the end of the war, Sakai was attacked by 15 American planes and they could not hit him even once, although the battle lasted 20 minutes , what I mean is that the Chinese will also be able to crush super pilots on American super planes with a mass

[Negro]

Quote: HaByxoDaBHocep

that the Chinese will also be able to crush super pilots on American super planes with a mass

Being inferior in number to the United States and its allies by about five times, it is not so easy to crush them in mass.

[WapentakeLokki]

crushed by a mass - that’s like ???..if Amer’s stealth (with the support of AWACS) will launch AMRAAM from invisa (and there will be 6-8 of them on internal slings) and at least a couple will fly, then how many days will the PLA Air Force be enough for???

[zyablik.olga]

China will defeat the US in an air war over Taiwan

My husband twisted his finger to his temple when he read this. But I did not comment on this article in order to avoid further “warnings” from the site administration.

[novel66]

He's smart, that's why he kept silent... Hello to him!

[Bongo]

Quote: novel xnumx

He's smart, that's why he kept silent... Hello to him!

I'm also very humble!
Hi!

[Des]

China has already won. These are billions of people, and systematic development, and normal goals, and, most importantly, they are not in too much of a hurry))). There are ideas there for millennia.

[dementor873]

Quote: zyablik.olga

Quote: dementor873

How will Taiwan's logistics be supported, how long will it last on its own reserves? China doesn’t even need to go to sea to sink caravans.

A war between China and the United States will also lead to a blockade of the Chinese coast by the combined fleets of the United States and its allies and the collapse of the Chinese economy. As you know, the main trading partner of China is the United States, which accounts for the lion's share of Chinese imports. And the Republic of China is very strongly integrated into the PRC economy. Although the PRC also experienced a rotation of power, the Chinese leadership is not so crazy as to start a war with an unpredictable result.

This is where friendship with your northern neighbor will begin. They have been trying to block our economy for 2 years now, or are they blocking us badly?

[Alex 1970]

All this is very controversial, the United States will not clash with China one on one, there are allies in the region who will gladly grab the Chinese together with the United States. And why does Roman think that everything will start suddenly and who is stopping the states from bringing in aircraft from other regions? Where were Iraq and the US in distance during Desert Storm? The Atlantic did not become an insurmountable obstacle. They, together with their allies, were able to concentrate 2600 combat and support aircraft there. And this is against Iraq, which is far from China. They will try to get there enough to outnumber the enemy by at least two times; they are not fools, after all, to “crush a hedgehog with one bare spot.”

[Vadim S]

About 1500 missiles are aimed at Taiwan, everyone who lives there knows this (info from a resident there), no one knows how many of them are nuclear, I’m sure the airfields will be extinguished immediately, the air defense even more so, plus from the bulk islands the Chinese air defense controls the entire island. Aren't the nearest bases at gunpoint? The first strike will definitely not be by planes.

[steelmaker]

Yes, if China and the United States were now to fight over Taiwan, it would greatly help us with Ukraine. But in the event of any military conflict, China will lose economically. The US will impose sanctions. And the fact that they are capable of “harming grandma...” we have all experienced this ourselves. In the next 6-7 years, everything will go as it goes.

[parusnik]

The economies of the PRC and the USA are tied to each other. For reference before WWI, German capital in the Republic of Ingushetia was concentrated in the electrical and chemical industries. German capital was called the actual owner of the Russian energy industry: the General Electric Company, behind which stood the German bank Disconto Gesellschaft, owned about 90% of the electrical enterprises operating in Russia. A significant part of the Russian military industry enterprises were under the financial, production and technical control of German capital, in particular the Nevsky Shipbuilding and Mechanical Plant, the Crafton Plant (Okhta Admiralty), the Lange Plant (in Riga), and the Becker Plant. Also in the hands of German capital were the metalworking and machine-building plants of Hartmann, the Kolomna Machine-Building Plant, the joint-stock company "Triangle", the Shlisselburg Powder Plant, the Russian Society of Artillery Factories, etc. The United States and the People's Republic of China are even more involved. What if there is a conflict between them, they will they continue mutually beneficial trade? War, war, but business is on schedule? Nothing personal?

[steelmaker]

"War, war, but business is on schedule?"
Russia was tsarist then, now it is capitalist, and China is communist. And I doubt that in the event of a war with the United States, China will leave everything as it is. China is still actively introducing sanctions against the United States in various areas, and general business is not helping. I won’t list them, the Internet will help you.

[Negro]

Khe khe.

resources such as National Interest, The Drive, Air & Space Power Journal, Air Force Magazine

You can feel it. Russian propaganda translated into English, then back into Russian by some Foreign Media.

US allies are completely ignored, starting with the Republic of China itself. The fact that the first stage of the operation will be carried out in the air defense zone of the Republic of China is completely ignored.

In reality, Chinese forces roughly correspond to the combined forces of American allies in the region. Without USA.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Negro

US allies are completely ignored, starting with the Republic of China itself.

Negro, I want to ask you completely without sarcasm and without any teasing - who, in your opinion, will fit in besides the United States for Taiwan?

[Negro]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

I would like to ask without any prodding - who, in your opinion, will fit in besides the United States for Taiwan?

By asking the wrong questions, you can't get the right answers.

It’s not who will “fit in with Taiwan,” but who will want to mess with the PRC in such a situation. Anyone: no one likes the PRC, and the Chinese, for their part, have territorial disputes with almost all their neighbors. Who exactly depends on the specific moment, so there is no point in guessing.
Also, what does it mean to “fit in”? Bombing Beijing is one thing, blocking trade routes is another.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Of course, thanks for the answer.
But it turns out that I shouldn’t have asked you without sarcasm - it’s more than appropriate in this situation. First you write

Quote: Negro

In reality, Chinese forces roughly correspond to the combined forces of American allies in the region. Without USA.

But when I ask you to personify these allies, it turns out that

Quote: Negro

What does it mean to “fit in”? Bombing Beijing is one thing, blocking trade routes is another.

Then the following “wrong” question arises (this time with sarcasm) - why do you mention the US allied air forces in your comment if they will not bomb Beijing?

[Negro]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

But when I ask you to personify these allies, it turns out that

Japan, South Korea, the Republic of China, Australia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and India have military relations with the United States in various formats. These are the ones who immediately came to mind.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

what if they don't bomb Beijing?

Bombing is one thing, creating tension and preventing forces from concentrating in one direction is another. In fact, participation in the war does not necessarily mean bombing the capital; in two years the North Military District could have figured this out.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Negro

Japan, South Korea, the Republic of China, Australia, the Philippines, Vietnam, Singapore, and India have military relations with the United States in various formats.

That is, you even managed to count the Australian Air Force in a possible confrontation over Taiwan? :))) I’m really surprised by only one thing - why wasn’t NATO taken into account? European NATO countries clearly have more chances to intervene on behalf of Taiwan than Australia.

Quote: Negro

Bombing is one thing, creating tension and preventing forces from concentrating in one direction is another.

I won’t even ask how Australia will create tension and interfere with the concentration of forces. And it is absolutely certain that none of the above will prevent China from placing an air force strike fist in the Taiwan area. As I already wrote, the limiting factor there will not be mythical “tensions,” but China’s airfield network

Quote: Negro

Actually, participation in the war does not necessarily mean bombing the capital

Not necessary. You can also deploy air defense in Taiwan, you can transfer the Air Force there and fight from there, you can, without bombing the capital, enter the war by attacking the border areas... But if none of the above list is planned, then Taiwan has nothing to do with the Air Force fight will help

[Negro]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

European NATO countries clearly have more chances to intervene on behalf of Taiwan than Australia.

I listed the countries in the region. But yes, Britain is actively involved in all sorts of American maintenance configurations.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

how Australia will create tension and interfere with the concentration of forces.

Strait of Malacca.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

the limiting factor there will not be mythical “tensions”, but China’s airfield network

Lots of considerations. But the airfield network doesn't really bother me. The South-East of China is full of villages for 5 million people with three international airports.

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

if none of the above list is planned

Twenty-five again. We discuss the author's fantasies about China gone. Why complicate the work of psychiatrists and figure out where else the roof will leak? When it comes to it, we'll see.

While the question is being discussed, “Is it possible to assume that in a military conflict between the United States and China around the Republic of Kazakhstan, both will find themselves without the military support of their allies?” I consider such an assumption, if it existed, to be a direct crime of Chinese strategists. It is unlikely that they are that incompetent or malicious.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Negro

While the question is being discussed, “Is it possible to assume that in a military conflict between the United States and China around the Republic of Kazakhstan, both will find themselves without the military support of their allies?” I consider such an assumption, if it existed, to be a direct crime of Chinese strategists.

I see. Thanks.

[bk0010]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

You can also deploy air defense in Taiwan, you can transfer the Air Force there and fight from there

Everything located in Taiwan will be destroyed in Taiwan by the first missile strike. 300 km allows.

[Mustached Kok]

Well, considering that in the Pacific region they are now trying to create a “Pacific NATO”, that same QUAD bloc. Then Australia can fit in.
+ taking into account NATO policy, we always get the following: if some NATO country conducts a military operation somewhere (almost always the USA, but not only them). At least a small group of military personnel will still be sent there by those NATO member countries that are generally far from the site of the operation and who have no interests there. Everyone laughed that Poland participated in the Iraqi campaign, but their contingent took over part of the patrol work, thereby freeing up a little more forces in the main direction. + this is still a group of armed professionals.
So if a conflict begins and the United States is added there, then a couple of countries from generally remote regions will DEFINITELY be drawn behind them, simply because they are also NATO member countries, and someone will want to participate in order to fit in. And I’m already silent about other countries in East and Southeast Asia that may gradually come into conflict due to personal interests and contradictions with China. Japan (to a greater extent), Korea (to a lesser extent).

Although, with all this, the question is - who even thinks that China wants to attack Taiwan, is it not possible that these are just rumors that they come up with in Taiwan to justify their defense?!

[Nikodim]

Quote: Andrey from Chelyabinsk

Quote: Negro

US allies are completely ignored, starting with the Republic of China itself.

Negro, I want to ask you completely without sarcasm and without any teasing - who, in your opinion, will fit in besides the United States for Taiwan?

It's clear who.
Ukraine. It will fall like bones

[2 Level Advisor]

Yes, it won’t fit in with Taiwan and the USA - .. why? because the USA OFFICIALLY recognizes Taiwan as part of China.. it now has a status similar to that of Chechnya in the early 90s.. a strained comparison, but about the fact that it was still considered part of the Russian Federation and no country would fit in with it.. help if possible - will they go to war with China over Taiwan? Why not with Spain for the Basques? if you look at it without the hysteria whipped up in the media, the meaning is the same... an article on the topic, but let’s fantasize if the United States and China are killed by aviation, what will happen? and that's the essence of it..

[parusnik]

an article on the topic, let’s imagine if the United States and China are cut off by aviation, what will happen? and this is its essence..

Yesterday Mitrofanov “played toy soldiers”, fought with the USA, today Skomorokhov “plays airplanes”, his USA is at war with the PRC.

[Yaroslav Tekkel]

Quote: Level 2 Advisor

Yes, it won’t fit in with Taiwan and the USA - .. why? because the US OFFICIALLY recognizes Taiwan as part of China..

The Russian Federation OFFICIALLY recognized the LDPR as part of Ukraine until February 2022. And until 2014, it OFFICIALLY recognized Crimea as part of Ukraine. They won’t fit in for a completely different reason - there’s a kind grandfather sitting in the White House who just enjoys leaking everything.

[2 Level Advisor]

Quote: Yaroslav Tekkel

The Russian Federation OFFICIALLY recognized the LDPR as part of Ukraine until February 2022. And until 2014, it OFFICIALLY recognized Crimea as part of Ukraine. They won’t fit in for a completely different reason - there’s a kind grandfather sitting in the White House who just enjoys leaking everything.

I suspect that Taiwan and the LDPR are in completely different weights for the United States and, accordingly, the Russian Federation.. Taiwan will not add anything fundamentally important for the United States in the region, so that it would be worth a quarrel with China, otherwise you will also say that they recognized Yugoslavia too.. war is usually for the sake of bonuses of some kind in 95% of cases, what bonus will the striped ones receive from Taiwan, compensating for the war with China? and the USA certainly first counts profits/losses, and then fights..

[Kmon]

Korea, Japan, Australia, Britain will definitely fit in...

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Kmon

Korea, Japan, Australia

What for?

[Kmon]

First, the US will ask politely. Secondly, so as not to become next.

[2 Level Advisor]

Quote: Kmon

Secondly, so as not to become next.

Are they, like Taiwan, recognized by most countries of the world as Chinese territories?

[Kmon]

And most countries in the world recognize Crimea and new territories as Ukrainian, and what does this change? We must look at reality, not at statements. But in reality, the United States, although it does not formally recognize Taiwan’s independence, is actively helping it. In reality, almost all of China's neighbors consider it an enemy and will behave accordingly in the event of a major conflict. “Next” does not mean that Japan and others are afraid that they will be captured by hordes of Chinese, of course. And in the sense that if Taiwan falls, China’s attention will focus on them, and the next conflict may flare up closer to them, which they absolutely do not need.

[2 Level Advisor]

Quote: Kmon

And most countries in the world recognize Crimea and new territories as Ukrainian, and what does this change?

nice, man.. your base is lame.. Taiwan is recognized as independent only by 13 states in the world.. Belize, Guatemala, Haiti, Marshall Islands, Nauru, Palau, Paraguay, St. Vincent and the Grenadines, St. Kitts and Nevis, St. Lucia, Tuvalu, Eswatini and the Holy See (simply superpowers)... Would you at least improve the theory “little by little” before “cutting down”? And what does Crimea have to do with it, when the whole world officially considers Taiwan to be Chinese territory? and since they are not recognized as independent, China has every right to respond in any way to an attack on its RECOGNIZED territories... that’s the difference with Crimea... and entry into Taiwan by the United States is an attack on China! do you feel the difference?

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Kmon

First, the US will ask politely.

He won't ask. It's stupid to ask for what you can't get. He will offer to join - yes, but he will not be able to make an offer that is impossible to refuse.

Quote: Kmon

Secondly, so as not to become next.

Next for whom? China will never interfere with Japan, much less Australia. And YK, as a counterweight to the “ifanta terrible” in the person of Eun, is more than happy with him. The DPRK essentially relies on opposing itself to the South Caucasus, and who will be opposed to it if the South Caucasus does not exist?

[Kmon]

No one will ask them; they have approximately zero independence. Especially considering the American bases on their territory and complete economic dependence.

It doesn’t matter whether they climb or not, what matters is that they are really afraid of it. Just like now all our neighbors, including the Baltic states and Poles, are afraid that the evil Russians will come to them in tanks after Ukraine.
If the South Caucasus does not exist, China will be in seventh heaven - the headache in the form of American soldiers and missiles at hand will disappear (the fate of the DPRK is the tenth thing). Similarly with Japan, although of course the chances of invasion there are approximately zero. But again, what is important is not the real capabilities of China, but the paranoia and fear of all its neighbors. Why do you think China has bad relations with almost all its neighbors?

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Kmon

No one will ask them; they have approximately zero independence. Especially considering the American bases on their territory and complete economic dependence.

:))) Since when did the South Caucasus and, moreover, Japan suddenly become economically dependent on the USA? :))) Do you study the subject at least a little before making such a statement. And the bases - what are the bases? We also have bases in Armenia. And what does this give?

Quote: Kmon

If there is no South Caucasus, China will be in seventh heaven - the headache of American soldiers and missiles nearby will disappear

They don’t have such a headache, because 20 thousand ground forces with 8 thousand air forces and two combat squadrons cannot threaten China with anything, even in principle.

[Kmon]

Since then, when they invested in the US national debt and began to depend on them. The destruction by the Americans of the Japanese economic miracle (there was an article about this in VO) is a clear example of this.
Our databases don’t provide anything because they don’t want to use them or don’t know how to use them. For the Americans, the bases give complete control over the countries, which is obvious from their pro-American policy.

And what, NATO also has small bases on our borders (for now), but this does not stop them seeing NATO expansion as a threat. China also sees a threat. He supports the DPRK for a reason, do you think he needs a buffer from friendly neighbors?

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Kmon

Since then, when they invested in the US national debt and began to depend on them

Investing in public debt does not make the investor dependent. US bonds are liquid and impersonal, they can always be sold on the market, and not necessarily the US. This time. Second -

Quote: Kmon

The destruction by the Americans of the Japanese economic miracle (there was an article about this in VO) is a clear example of this.

You see, I studied economics for five years at university, so an article on VO can hardly impress me.
With the Japanese miracle, everything is not as simple as it seems. The Japanese had problems long before the Americans intervened, and there were people who understood this, but who were not listened to in Japan itself.
The United States took measures to protect its manufacturers, who were losing the race with the Japanese. At the same time, they essentially imposed a liberal economic model on the Japanese. This was negative for the Japanese, but did not kill their economic miracle. What killed me was the dizziness of success, and the fatal mistakes of economic policy later.
Actually, the United States created the prerequisites, but the Japanese “slipped” completely on their own.

Quote: Kmon

China also sees a threat. He supports the DPRK for a reason, do you think he needs a buffer from friendly neighbors?

In fact, China and the South Caucasus have highly developed economic and political relations. Why has the South Caucasus no longer supported US anti-Chinese statements?

[Mustached Kok]

Quite an interesting article, but I would like more excerpts and quotes from primary sources. To understand what the author of the article is conveying to us, and what he is thinking up on his own.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

In fact, the question is certainly interesting.
Here it all comes down to...the airfield network.
To put it simply, the Chinese have, say, 1500 aircraft, but how many of them can they deploy to combat within effective range against Taiwan? I don’t think it’s 1000, but you have to look.
And Taiwan has an airfield network. How many planes can the US deploy there? they will be able to fly planes there from the metropolis without problems
How much time will the Americans have to swing? The Chinese will have to concentrate their forces to attack, this is the time, and it will be noticed.
In general, there are a lot of questions, but no answers.

[Cartalon]

The trouble is different, the polarization of the thesis continues that a lot of bad technology is better than a little good technology.
Meanwhile, such a doctrine only leads to huge losses.

[Mekey Iptyshev]

What article is this? Aviation versus aviation. It's like talking about T-90 battles against Leopards. Although, as practice has shown, Lancets are more dangerous for Leopards.
China has hypersonic missiles. Why send planes to an aircraft carrier if you can hit it with hypersonic missiles?
Are you forgetting the experience of the SVO? When the Black Sea Fleet was essentially powerless against unmanned surface boats. Why send ships and planes? Airborne, surface and underwater unmanned drones will increasingly pose a threat to ships.
It seems there was already an article about hundreds of drones, Chinese MIG-21s. It is better to send them first than planes with live pilots.

[Andrei from Chelyabinsk]

Quote: Mekey Iptyshev

What article is this? Aviation versus aviation.

This is exactly how they fought before the landings at the Falklands. This is how they will fight before the landing on Taiwan

Quote: Mekey Iptyshev

China has hypersonic missiles.

No. Ballistic - yes

Quote: Mekey Iptyshev

Why send planes to an aircraft carrier if you can hit it with hypersonic missiles?

There is no need to send anything to anyone at all.

Quote: Mekey Iptyshev

Are you forgetting the experience of the SVO? When the Black Sea Fleet was essentially powerless against unmanned surface boats.

It's hard to forget what you don't know. Unmanned boats showed their low efficiency even in completely hothouse conditions for them at the World Cup

[Nickelium]

Only we have hypersound.

[Sardou]

Pourquoi la Russie a la supériorité aérienne contre l'Ukraine et n'arrive pas à envahir le pays?

[Yaroslav Tekkel]

Because due to the systematic sabotage of the Shoigu gang, the effectiveness of Russian aviation against air defense and ground targets is at the level of the 70s.

[Negro]

Quote: Yaroslav Tekkel

Because due to the systematic sabotage of the Shoigu gang

Cough cough. Not that I was a fan of the Russian Moltke the Elder, but these accusations are too much. Let me remind you that when the “Sarkozy gang” began a special military operation in Libya, after a month they ran out of smart bombs and had to run to the Americans for help. Russia and France are approximately comparable in economic size; the quality of the French economy is noticeably higher.

[Yaroslav Tekkel]

France is a country that, for example, has self-propelled artillery in the double digits. And tanks are repaired through cannibalism.

[Negro]

Quote: Yaroslav Tekkel

France is a country that, for example, has self-propelled artillery in the double digits. And tanks are repaired through cannibalism.

In the case of Libya, they needed neither. Besides, if one of the few non-zero NATO members is like this, what questions could there be for Shoigu?

[Yaroslav Tekkel]

Okay, let's compare with the French. The second army of the world with a meme army. In 2011, indeed, the production of AASMs was just starting up after numerous delays (in particular, it was discovered that the production of conventional unguided bombs was about to be converted), so after using up 220-250 rounds of ammunition, a shortage arose. As I understand it, it was still not a complete exhaustion of the arsenal, but an exhaustion of the excess above NZ, but that’s not the point. The fact is that AASM was already in production 12 years ago and was an effective weapon. Since then, without being distracted by “alternative ideas,” they have simply stupidly riveted it together to the best of their budget. Now there should be, if I understand correctly, at least 2000 pieces (the Wishlist was for 4200), not counting exports. Not American quantities, of course, but what are they rich in? Plus the recently famous “Scalps”, numbering in the hundreds.

This is a funny army with tanned armpits, but what does the second in the world have? Shoigu took office just a year after the Libyan conflict. Instead of just doing what people did (they could have done it in 10 years), perversions began in the spirit of an extremist international LGBT organization. “The use of Su-24M bombers equipped with the SVP-24 Hephaestus subsystem made it possible to ensure the effectiveness of hitting enemy targets with unguided bombs, comparable to the accuracy of using guided bombs.” Nowadays, this prodigy is somehow bashfully not remembered. And only after a year of hostilities they began to make a makeshift parody of the “jidam”. Analogues of the "Scalp" were not delivered at all; our missile launchers can only be lifted by heavy bombers, for which each flight is a special operation in itself.

If the second army of the world in February 2022 had at least the pitiful French 2000 AASM and hundreds of "Scalps", wouldn't this improve the situation for the Russian Federation? (although something says “no, it hasn’t improved”)

[Negro]

Quote: Yaroslav Tekkel

Shoigu took office just a year after the Libyan conflict. Instead of just doing what people do

Again twenty-five.

We've already talked about it. There was one there, from commerce, who tried something about “NATO standards.” McNamara is lousy. So he barely left, his woman left for the prison camp. Who needs this? Would you wish this for yours?

Whether it’s Kozhugedych! He lives without grieving, and whoever speaks offensively about him: one is in a pre-trial detention center, the other decided to play on a plane with a live grenade and lost. Is it bad?

NATO standards did not happen. The Lord saved the Orthodox army from this abomination.

[Baobabus]

I just don’t understand what the US Air Force has to do with a potential conflict in Taiwan? It’s one thing to supply weapons somewhere; it’s a completely different thing to take direct, full-scale participation in an armed conflict.

[solar]

States have repeatedly taken part in various conflicts. Taiwan once represented China at the UN. The Americans agreed to his replacement by Beijing, but gave guarantees of non-alignment with China by force.

[Kmon]

The US does not have to directly shoot down Chinese planes. They will simply organize a blockade and the Chinese economy, tied to maritime cargo transportation, will be finished. And China will have to choose: either the collapse of the economy, or the collapse of the economy + a full-scale naval and air war with the US bloc, or a retreat admitting defeat. It is because of this threat that Taiwan is not touched.

And yes, in the modern world, the secret concentration of the group necessary for invasions is impossible; the United States and its allies will have enough time to react.

[Sardou]

Étudié bien la carte du monde.la chine peut bien se passer de la voie maritime pour le pétrole

[bk0010]

Quote: Kmon

They will simply organize a blockade and the Chinese economy, tied to maritime cargo transportation, will be finished.

What about the states? How will they, say, wipe their butts without Chinese goods? The Chinese will be able to consume their goods themselves, but who will produce everything for the states, and at reasonable prices?

[Kmon]

If you are not aware, production from China is already being transferred to India and other countries where labor is now cheaper. China is ceasing to be the factory of the world. Some production even returns home.

No, the USA and others will certainly be bad, but China will be much worse.

[bk0010]

Quote: Kmon

If you are not aware, production from China is already being transferred to India

Is it being translated or has it already been translated? It's a big difference.

Quote: Kmon

No, the USA and others will certainly be bad, but China will be much worse.

Yes, you’ll have to eat a lot to consume everything that used to go to the states.

[Negro]

Quote: bk0010

you will have to eat three throats to consume everything that used to go to the states

You can't eat shoes, they contain harmful glue.

[bk0010]

Quote: Negro

You can't eat shoes, they contain harmful glue.

Learn from Charlie Chaplin how to eat shoes

[Igor K]

If China brushes aside the Americans, then North Korea and I will be foolish to stand on the sidelines (at least at the second stage of the conflict), inflicting decisive damage on the adversary is a sacred matter.
After this, Europe is ours))

[Nickelium]

Isn’t it better to wait until the monkey dies and take part of its territory?

[Yaroslav Tekkel]

Exactly! Let's raise the Russian flag over Port Arthur again!

[bone1]

Childish reasoning - like two nuclear superpowers will fight for Taiwan until the last plane? - and, only, the ratio of fighters-bombers - the results of the confrontation do not decide - for example - we have absolute air supremacy in the Northern Military District - so what?

[runway-1]

Quote: Tucan

Very controversial conclusions; the author, who is not an expert in the field of aviation, overlooks the superiority of the United States in the field of information control systems and guided weapons. The combat potential of the Taiwanese Air Force and its weak air defense are also not taken into account. In addition, the outbreak of an air battle between the United States and China would mean a full-scale conflict between the countries, and Beijing needs this least of all.

I agree, in addition, the author underestimates the US’s ability to transport people and equipment over significant distances.

[Yaroslav Tekkel]

This already happened in WWII. All Japanese ships and planes did not prevent America from destroying samurai shipping. The Americans can establish a naval blockade of China, but the Chinese cannot establish a naval blockade of America - after all, all trade with Europe, Africa and the Middle East goes through the Atlantic, where Chinese raiders are unlikely to appear.

[Yaroslav Tekkel]

This already happened in WWII. All Japanese ships and planes did not prevent America from destroying samurai shipping. The Americans can establish a naval blockade of China, but the Chinese cannot establish a naval blockade of America - after all, all trade with Europe, Africa and the Middle East goes through the Atlantic, where Chinese raiders are unlikely to appear.

[Lis_96]

It looks like fans of mattress covers have gathered here, praising to the skies the star-striped masters of their destiny. They are so excited and excited about the power of the Yankees that they are already in tears.

[Sedoy]

But not many aircraft are stationed there.

What’s stopping them from transferring there in advance? They need a quantity - nothing...
They will expand the infrastructure...
The problem is far-fetched...
Here we need to look at something else - Ping to Sov has the most combat experience in the world, especially taking into account logistics, while the Chinese have zero...
That says it all...
The Chinese, of course, are capable and ready to die for their country, but winning is not a fact...

[DienBienPhu]

The PL-15 is a nightmare for the US Air Force

[avdkrd]

China's presence of ballistic anti-ship missiles makes aircraft carriers and, accordingly, aircraft based on them great targets. In a confrontation with an enemy who not only snaps, but is capable of retaliating against US aircraft carriers and bases, the elves have no chance. The transition of the conflict to an exchange of nuclear strikes is the only scenario. It is not a fact that the United States will retain its statehood, even with its current superiority in nuclear weapons. In addition, there is not a small chance that the use of nuclear weapons in such a conflict will escalate into a global nuclear war, where all participants have the prospect of rolling back to the end of the 19th century. There is a systemic crisis in leadership in the states, but real puppet masters are not driven by emotions. It’s unlikely that the Yankees will simply bury their future. By the way, based on the results of modeling a general nuclear conflict, China showed the highest resistance to losses due to the peculiarities of the social system and economy. The Chinese also know about this, just as they know what the Americans and the entire “progressive” West are capable of.

[Jyt]

The People's Republic of China will not have 2 years of hassling with the bourgeoisie - its fascist partners will immediately do them a double-take because in the People's Republic of China there is Soviet power, let alone in the Russian Federation. Medinsky will not be sent to withdraw troops either.