Il-96-400M: premature joy
В the news The first flight of the first model of the Il-96-400M has already been vigorously celebrated, one could read and watch many joyful statements on this topic, they say, we can wipe out the whole world (meaning, as I understand it, “Boeing” and “Airbus”) and everything like that.
However, everything is not as rosy as it seems at first glance.
Yes, a prototype is not a production aircraft yet, but nevertheless, if it takes off and everything goes well, that’s good. But what does this information say? Exclusively about the presence of ONE prototype. And to rejoice at the appearance of hundreds of Il-96-400Ms in the skies of Russia, to put it mildly, is a little early. For very specific reasons, which we will now discuss.
While Rostec is openly celebrating the victory, Chemezov declares that the Russian aviation industry has everything it needs to create and build wide-body long-haul airliners. Wonderful. Moreover, the head of Rostec is confident that the creation of such aircraft will ensure the technological sovereignty of the country, no more, no less.
Well, it's hard to argue here. Indeed, the technology to create such aircraft exists. They have been around since the times of the USSR, when the Ilyushin Design Bureau created the Il-86, on the basis of which the Il-96 was created, then the Il-96-300 and now the Il-96-400M.
So the base was laid 50 years ago, and thank God it has not gone away, otherwise, it is clear that there would be no trace of any IL-96s. You can, of course, talk about breakthroughs and victories, but in fact, the Il-96-400M is just a modified Il-96-300, which has been flying since 1988.
Breakthrough? Something doesn't look very similar
It is clear that in 30 years the aircraft industry has moved forward, so much work has been done to modernize the Il-96-300 into the Il-96-400. Replacing almost all avionics of the 20th century with modern ones, which made it possible to abandon the navigator, as in really modern aircraft, updating life support systems, and so on.
But what is our main headache? Okay, we’ll talk about the main thing a little later, but about the engines now.
Engines that can provide the “new” aircraft with the maximum range declared by Rostec at 8 kilometers... exist! But this, unfortunately, is still the same PS-100A. Which also comes from the same 90s of the last century.
PS-90A is the engine of Il-96-300, Il-96-400, Tu-204, Tu-214. Development began in 1979, bench tests - in 1983, flight tests on the wing of the Il-76 - in 1987, the first flight of the Il-96-300, equipped with four pre-production samples of this engine, took place in 1988, and the certificate was received in 1992. Very an age-old engine that advanced our aviation very well in the 90s, but today - alas.
True, there are also such phenomena as PS-90A-2. An interesting modification. The PS-90A2 used technologies obtained as a result of joint work with Pratt & Whitney, as a result of which restrictions were imposed on the export of the engine by the US State Department and the contract for the supply of new Tu-204SM aircraft to Iran was disrupted.
PS-90A-3. Let's just say it's an import-substituted version of PS-90A-2, certified in 2011. The power is still the same 16 kgf, but it can fly not only over Russia.
As a result, we still have the same “unfashionable” four-engine design, which seems to be not as economical as the huge engines of modern twin-engine aircraft.
But it has been tested by time and (more importantly from the point of view of some VASO employees) by years of operation. Considering that the “base”, that is, the Il-86 flew who knows how many kilometers with hundreds of aircraft with one single flight accident that claimed the lives of 14 people. Another 4 accidents were completely not the fault of the aircraft, two were due to the fault of the crew, one was due to the fault of terrorists who exploded a bomb in the cabin, and one was when a Boeing crashed on an Il-86 while parked in Delhi.
But even Chemezov believes that with the PS-90A, the Il-96-400M has no chance of becoming an effective aircraft for the commercial air transportation market. Efficiency was not a distinctive feature of Soviet aircraft engines, this is a fact.
Of course, the situation could be corrected by the PD-35. But alas, the engine, which has been in development since 2016, has no special chance of appearing on the market before 2030.
It should be noted that our development specialists were very keen on the project of the Russian-Chinese wide-body aircraft CR-929. Time was wasted from 2014 to 2022, spent on participating in the joint project, but in fact China continued to develop a line of passenger airliners on its own.
The presence of the Il-96-400 in light of the collapse of the CR-929 idea is in itself a good solution. This machine will be able to operate both on domestic lines and on international routes, carrying up to 400 passengers or cargo over a stated 8 kilometers.
And “Ila” even has a certain modernization resource. Some experts believe that abandoning the mechanical control system and switching to a digital one will significantly lighten the design and reduce fuel consumption, for which the IL-96 was so criticized. But, on the other hand, a mechanical system is the highest reliability, a system that will ensure flight even if all electronics completely fail.
In the Special Flight Detachment “Russia” this quality is highly valued.
So the IL-96 has room to move. Here we can recall the experiment when a modification of the Il-96 with engines from Pratt and Whitney was certified in the USA. And how then the figures from Boeing, having realized the prospects of this aircraft in the American transportation market, began to sink the Ilyushin together. And as a result, the project was cut down at the root, our plane lost its American engines.
Theoretically, the Il-96-400M is not only needed, in a situation where the MS-21 and the Sukhoi Superjet, to put it mildly, do not live up to the expectations placed on them, everything is sad in the long-distance transport sector.
In general, the Il-96 can become the desired lifesaver (if a structure weighing 270 tons can be called that) for Russian air carriers. The plane is actually domestic, and everything that they managed to cram into it from imported avionics is being replaced, albeit with certain difficulties. That is, the output will be a continuation of the IL-86 line, but at a modern level. Perhaps just as reliable and unpretentious. Well, the IL-86 was also in complete order with comfort. And if the Il-96 SLO “Russia” flies all over the world, it means that the navigation and safety systems are in full compliance with all international requirements.
But from Chemezov’s words it follows that the Il-96-400M should not be expected to appear on passenger airlines. The aircraft, according to the head of Rostec, will be produced to order for the needs of the same SLO Rossiya or as a transport aircraft for cargo transportation.
That is, at present the IL-96-400M has no potential customers.
The only completed copy will be used as a test model for now, and while the tests are ongoing, the fate of the aircraft will be decided.
The Il-96 has one big drawback dating back to Soviet times: its fuel consumption, which can make all plans to use the aircraft completely pointless from a purely economic point of view.
But there are two more things that can play a significant role in the fate of the aircraft
The first is the main problem of reducing the cost of air transportation, which consists not only of the price of fuel and the amount of fuel consumption, but also of how quickly spare parts and maintenance kits will be produced, how quickly aircraft maintenance and repair teams can work, and so on. That is, all the ground bustle.
There is a nuance here that is clear to almost everyone: the more an airplane flies without capital investments in it, the more profit it makes. The more such aircraft enter production, the lower the cost of their production. This means that aircraft need to be mass-produced.
And here lies the second problem. Where and who will ensure serial production of the IL-96?
Of course, the Voronezh Aircraft Manufacturing Association (VASO) seems to be emerging. It was there that the IL-86 was assembled, everything should be there: production areas, warehouses, personnel.
Alas, if the production space has not yet been sold out, then the staffing situation is completely sad. Years without orders under an openly fattening management had taken their toll - tired of the fantastic salaries of 16-18 thousand rubles, people began to run away. And today at VASO there is a huge problem with personnel, and it will only get worse, because people who assemble the most complex mechanisms, which undoubtedly are airplanes, should not beg. And this is the only way to describe what is happening at the enterprise.
No, senior management is doing great. You know, so to speak, first-hand, what salaries are there and how, gentlemen, effective managers entertain themselves with these salaries. But below... However, judge for yourself. Here is a link to the VASO website, section “Vacancies”.
Vacancies VASO
Just scroll from top to bottom and see for yourself that the average salary is 30 thousand. Don’t be fooled by this “From 25 thousand”, 25 is also “From 500”. A design engineer earning 25 is not funny. This is tragic.
Ask yourself in your heart, how do you want to work as a design engineer? And here are literally a couple of vacancies from another world. Just like in advertising - feel the difference.
So the Il-96-400M most likely will not be in such quantities that we can feel it. Alas, VASO is simply not able to ensure any production of aircraft.
By the way, which one is capable? These are just numbers...
The enterprise has a certain backlog in terms of experience in working on such equipment: they assembled the Il-96-300, Il-96-400T, and assembled the Il-96-400M. These are different machines, differing significantly both in shape and size, and in layout. So the plant doesn’t particularly consider the Il-96-400M to be such a new and innovative aircraft. Although, of course, a decent amount of work was done and no one questions its volume and importance.
Avionics is half the battle; we had to create a passenger cabin from scratch, and these are not just rows of seats and luggage racks, this is a life support system for 400 passengers, each of whom on board must receive their own 27,5 liters of breathable air. In a minute.
Business class cabinа
Economy class
So yes, Russia can still make very good airplanes. For now he can. But here the question arises not of modernity or uniqueness, but of quantity. The chart above shows how many aircraft VASO has produced in recent years. And to say that, as in Soviet times, with the wave of a wand, the production of 6-10 aircraft per year will suddenly begin - this means lying.
It will be just great if VASO can manage the production of TWO Il-96-400M aircraft per year. What does this mean for our aviation? Everyone understands that it’s nothing. But while a Yandex courier earns several times more than a design engineer, you shouldn’t dream of anything more. Even if tomorrow an order for, say, 20 cars for the same Aeroflot falls down from the Government (note, which has “ditched” workers more than once by not fulfilling its promises), no one will rush to the machines. People simply will not return to the workshops that they left during the years of inactivity for the sake of “astronomical” salaries.
But there are publications and experts who believe that two planes a year is a lot. And God grant that VASO will be able to produce at least one aircraft a year.
But I don’t think it’s even worth deciphering what one plane a year is.
Yes, it’s very good that the Il-96-400M took off and flew, not like the Il-112V. It flew normally, without incidents. But that's only half the story. And how to get out of this situation, how to establish serial production of equipment that is so necessary for domestic companies, is not yet entirely clear.
It is only clear that after some time it will be simply dangerous for Boeings and Airbuses, left without proper repairs from the manufacturer, to take to the skies. And here it seems that there is something to replace them with, but how to implement this in practice is a question to which the head of Rostec does not yet have an exact answer.
Information