Another project to the right: nuclear icebreakers will have to wait
Icebreaker "Ural" project 22220.
The time of giants has not yet come
It's a difficult start history starts with the awareness of the chronic shortage of icebreaking equipment in Russia fleet. Primarily due to the growth of traffic along the Northern Sea Route.
At the end of 2022, the flow of cargo exceeded 34 million tons, which is a record - this did not happen either in the Soviet era or in modern Russia. The main flows come from Yamal LNG Novatek, New Port Gazpromneft and Arctic LNG-2 Novatek. At the same time, a reduction in cargo transportation is not planned - more than 2023-40 million tons should be reached in 45, and 2025 million in 90.
Currently, more than half of the cargo traffic on the Northern Sea Route is liquefied natural gas. The presence of a powerful icebreaker fleet is critically important in the development of the Northern Sea Route. Despite inevitable global warming, the pace of ice retreat to the north is insufficient, and nuclear icebreakers will be relevant for a long time.
You can build modern terminals and ports, purchase gas carriers and tankers, but be left without icebreaking ships. The multibillion-dollar enterprise will operate only for a few months a year. To implement year-round navigation, Russia has launched the construction of a whole series of icebreakers.
Paradoxically, the junior icebreakers of Project 22220 are the largest and most powerful in the world. In accordance with the program, three vessels have already been launched, and four are under construction. More precisely, even four icebreakers have been launched - "Arktika", "Sibir", "Ural" and "Yakutia", but the latter will be completed afloat until the end of next year.
Project 22220 icebreaker "Yakutia" under construction.
The Chukotka ship has been under construction at the Baltic Shipyard since 2020, and the Kamchatka and Sakhalin ships will be laid down in 2024 and 2025, respectively. The series of icebreakers was developed specifically for the Northern Sea Route and is distinguished by its versatility, that is, the ability to work both at sea and in river beds. This is ensured by variable draft, that is, the adaptation of the icebreaker to shallow river waters and to the depths of the sea.
Project 22220 vessels should gradually replace the icebreakers of the Soviet period - “Vaigach”, “Taimyr”, “Yamal” and “50 Let Pobedy”. According to Deputy Chairman of the Russian Government Alexander Novak, in just seven years the number of icebreakers on the Northern Route will be 13 units, of which at least nine will be ultra-modern.
But the northern seas do not live by icebreakers alone - by 2030, Russia intends to commission 132 Arctic-class vessels. In the same program, the construction of 46 ships for the rescue fleet and special aviation. The first birds have already arrived - the offshore Mi-171A3 for oil and gas workers has been operating in the skies since 2021.
The main players on the Northern Sea Route should be Project 10510 Leader nuclear icebreakers. The ships' power plant develops a record 120 MW, which is twice as much as that of the Project 22220 icebreakers. For comparison, the total power of the Admiral Kuznetsov aircraft carrier is only slightly more - 148 MW.
There are plans to build at least three “Leaders”, intended primarily for high-speed navigation of large-capacity vessels across the ice. Another comparison is that the width of the world’s largest icebreakers, Project 22220, is 34 meters, while that of the Leader under construction is 47,7 meters. It is unlikely that it will be possible to navigate a supertanker like the Knock Nevis across the ice, but there is enough space for the passage of some Maersk Peary and several of its older brothers.
As we see, there are simply a huge number of plans, and all of them must be implemented no later than 2030. But that's it for good news domestic shipbuilding is ending.
It's unlikely to meet deadlines
An alarm bell sounded a year ago, when Vladimir Putin called for not losing momentum and meeting the deadlines for commissioning new icebreakers. The President voiced this requirement on the eve of the launch of the Project 22220 Ural icebreaker in December 2022.
But even if all production plans are met, the icebreaker fleet will still not be enough. The growth rate of traffic along the Northern Sea Route is growing faster than expected, which requires more ships. While transport ships can still be dealt with somehow, for example, by purchasing “conditionally ice-class” ships, this will not work with icebreakers.
Alexey Chekunkov, head of the Ministry of Eastern Development, claims that by 2030 six more icebreakers are required in addition to those laid down and planned. Otherwise, it will not be possible to achieve annual traffic of 200 million tons of cargo by the designated time. At the same time, all domestic shipyards are loaded with orders for years to come.
Chekunov suggests, before it’s too late, to turn to shipbuilders in India and China for help. But that's only half the problem.
In the end, nothing critical will happen if six additional icebreakers do not appear by 2030 - cargo turnover in the Arctic Ocean will simply not grow so rapidly.
The icebreaker of Project 10510 is still only in the plans, but has already managed to rise in price from 128 to 200 billion rubles.
The real difficulties began when they calculated the cost of the icebreakers being built.
Even before international sanctions, ships were not cheap - each super icebreaker Leader cost 130 billion rubles, and class 22220 cost 60 billion. At 2023 prices, each Leader is valued at 200 billion rubles. In this case, the deadline for accepting the vessel into operation shifts to the right.
Initially, the first icebreaker of the Leader project, which bears the proud name “Russia,” was supposed to appear in December 2027. Now its appearance on the Northern Sea Route is not expected before 2029. There are many reasons - a shortage of workers at the Zvezda shipyard, delays in deliveries and simple underfunding.
The Leader project ships suddenly rise in price to 200 billion rubles each, which entails a bunch of problems, the main one of which is the increase in tariffs for ship pilotage. In the most difficult case, this neutralizes all the attractiveness of the Northern Sea Route, primarily for foreign shipowners.
The most surprising thing is that the lag in the pace of assembly of the Rossiya is due to the difficulties of casting large parts of the hull and assembling components of the nuclear installation. These elements should not depend in any way on imported equipment, much less on the dollar exchange rate. But what is, that is - the ice tooth, elements of the rudder and propellers were supposed to be manufactured at the Energomashspetsstal plant in Kramatorsk. According to available data and understandable reasons, the plant is now unable to produce the necessary components - part of the plant has been destroyed.
Things won’t go well with Rossiya’s younger brothers, the 22220 class icebreakers Arktika. The ships “Chukotka” (laid down in December 2020) and “Kamchatka” (laid down in 2024) may double in price. These are the fifth and sixth icebreakers of the series, respectively. There is no word yet on how much the final vessel Sakhalin will increase in price.
More - more.
The difficult economic situation is forcing a reduction in government funding for ship construction. Moreover, last year Mikhail Mishustin signed a decree allocating 118 billion rubles for a couple of additional icebreakers and 25 billion for a support ship. The funding was expected to be disbursed by 2030.
But now financiers are seriously thinking about saving. In the draft budget for 2024–2026. the costs of building icebreakers of the 22220 and 10510 series are somewhat reduced. In total, savings should amount to 9–10 billion rubles. They will pinch off a little from each icebreaker under construction - an average of 2 billion rubles. At first glance, it does not smell like a disaster, but taking into account the rise in price of each vessel, the commissioning dates have noticeably shifted to the right.
Unfortunately, this is becoming a kind of modern trend. First, they rewrote the program for civil aircraft manufacturing, shifting a good part of production closer to 2030. Now it will come to the nuclear icebreaker fleet.
How critical this really is remains to be seen. It seems that the time for difficult and tough decisions will come in the industrial sector as well. The main question is when?
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