Aid to Ukraine and consequences for the Bundeswehr

Self-propelled guns PzH 2000 - Germany supplied one and a half dozen such vehicles to Ukraine. Photo by KMW

Since February last year, the German government has been actively helping the Kyiv regime with the supply of various weapons, military equipment, ammunition and property. Most of the products and supplies for transfer to Ukraine are taken from Bundeswehr units and warehouses. As a result, to date, active assistance to the “ally” has led to a certain depletion of reserves and a reduction in the potential of the armed forces.

Stale goods

For foreign countries, helping Ukraine in its “struggle for independence” has become an excellent reason to get rid of old and unnecessary weapons and equipment, and with certain political and economic benefits. Germany was no exception - already in February-March 2022, it announced the imminent shipment of old types of weapons from stock.

In March, the Bundeswehr announced its readiness to send the Soviet-made Strela-2 MANPADS to the Kyiv regime. Initially, it was said that there were at least 2,5 thousand complexes, but a significant portion of them, for various reasons, were unsuitable for use and had to be disposed of. As a result, only 1,5 thousand MANPADS were delivered to Ukraine.

At the end of April, the German Ministry of Defense announced the possibility of transferring Gepard anti-aircraft self-propelled guns to Ukraine. Vehicles of this type were in service with the ground forces until 2010, after which they were written off and put into storage. It was proposed to send 50 vehicles out of 90-95 available to the Kyiv regime. Deliveries were approved and began by mid-summer. Later, the shipment of several additional SPAAGs was approved. The transfer of equipment is expected to be completed by the end of 2023.

MLRS MARS 2. Photo by KMW

At the turn of 2022-23. NATO countries discussed future supplies tanks Kyiv regime. In this context, Germany has also found a way to get rid of long-outdated and unnecessary products. In early February, the country's government approved the export of almost 180 Leopard 1 tanks of various modifications. It was planned to take a significant part of this equipment from German storage bases or buy it from local suppliers.

The first batch of German and “foreign” Leopard 1 tanks arrived in Ukraine in mid-July. The approved schedule provides for new deliveries in 2023-24. At the same time, the transfer of old tanks faces characteristic problems - Kyiv refused to accept one of the batches of equipment due to its unsatisfactory condition.

Armored vehicles from stock

However, the Bundeswehr had to not only empty warehouses of stale property, but also write off the materiel of the active fleet in favor of Ukraine. Last spring, the German government expressed its fundamental readiness for partial disarmament in favor of the Kyiv regime, and they soon began to fulfill this promise. First of all, these ideas were implemented in the field of armored vehicles.

At the beginning of last year, the Bundeswehr had approx. 120 self-propelled howitzers PzH 2000. At the beginning of May, the country's leadership announced the start of deliveries of such equipment to Ukraine. As part of several assistance packages, the latter received 14 units. Such equipment makes up more than 11% of the existing fleet. As a result, just over 100 self-propelled guns remain in service with the German ground forces, and not all of them are ready for full operation and combat use.

Leopard 1A5 tank. Photo by KMW

In June, Germany decided to share multiple launch rocket systems with Ukraine. The delivery of several MARS 2 products, the German version of the American M270 MLRS system, was announced. As part of two different aid packages, the Kyiv regime was given 5 MARS 2 products out of 40 available - 12,5%.

In mid-September, a new aid package was approved, which included the shipment of 50 Dingo ATF armored vehicles. The execution of this document began a few months later. At the time of its adoption, the Bundeswehr had approx. 250 Dingo cars of all modifications. Accordingly, they were going to allocate a fifth of their fleet to help Ukraine.

Since January 2023, Germany has supplemented aid packages with Marder infantry fighting vehicles three times. In total, the delivery of 100 such infantry fighting vehicles is planned, and at least 60 have already reached Ukraine. At the same time, the total number of “Marders” in their own troops until recently did not exceed 320-325 units. Thus, the Kyiv regime will receive about a third of its own fleet.

Of particular interest are deliveries of Leopard 2 MBT. At the end of February, the German leadership approved the transfer of such equipment to Ukraine and allowed its re-export to third countries. As part of several batches, Germany transferred from its army at least 18 tanks of two modifications - “2A4” and “2A6”. In addition, third countries paid for the supply of a certain number of Leopards from Germany. It should be recalled that before all these processes, the total number of Leopard 2s in the German army exceeded 280 units. Accordingly, only 6-7 percent have been transferred so far. from the available number.

Leopard 2 moments before being hit by loitering ammunition. Photo Telegram / "Archangel of Special Forces"

To ensure the operation of tanks and other equipment, Germany provided several Bergepanzer 3 armored repair and recovery vehicles. Of the 95 available products of this type, 5-7 units were sent to Ukraine. - OK. 5%. Third countries also provided similar equipment.

Anti-aircraft lag

In June 2022, German leadership spoke about the future delivery of modern IRIS-T air defense systems. Over the next few months, preparations were made for this, and in October Ukraine received the first battery of the IRIS-T SLM medium-range complex. In the spring of 2023, the transfer of the IRIS-T SLS short-range complex was announced.

The delivery of IRIS-T air defense systems is noticeably different from other assistance to Ukraine and is therefore of particular interest. The fact is that IRIS-T products are not yet in service with the Bundeswehr. Moreover, the first order for their production and delivery to the German army appeared only this year. In fact, Ukraine became an operator of the new air defense system before the developer country.

In February, Rheinmetall announced the shipment of modern Skynex and Skyranger anti-aircraft artillery systems to Ukraine. Reliable information about their appearance by the Kyiv regime, deployment and operation has not yet been received. At the same time, as in the case of IRIS-T, Ukraine can overtake Germany in the speed of deployment of weapons of its production.

IRIS-T air defense system in a combat zone. Photo Telegram / BMPD

Mixed Consequences

Germany is one of the most active suppliers of weapons and equipment to Ukraine. Since the winter-spring of last year, it has repeatedly formed aid packages and provided various products and property. Armored vehicles were transferred, artillery systems, auxiliary means, etc.

It is easy to see that providing assistance to the Kyiv regime gave Germany some new opportunities, but at the same time led to certain difficulties. At the same time, the country’s leadership plans to continue supporting friendly Ukraine, and we can expect that the trends currently observed will continue in full.

First of all, it can be noted that the German leadership perceives the international campaign to provide military-technical assistance to Ukraine not only as a common cause “in defense of democracy.” It is also considered a good opportunity to get rid of stale equipment, freeing up warehouses for modern products. At the same time, it is possible to save on disposal, and in the future, make money.

At the same time, Germany could not make do with only outdated equipment, and it had to ship modern equipment and weapons from combat units. So far, the volume of supplies of this kind does not exceed a few percent of the available quantity of materiel. However, the continuation of such processes will increase the number and share of decommissioned products - and will negatively affect the potential of the German army.

Artillery complex Skynex. Photos of Rheinmetall

It should also be taken into account that open information on the number of weapons and equipment does not contain data on its condition and combat readiness. At the same time, it is known that in this context the Bundeswehr is experiencing serious difficulties, and not all vehicles or artillery systems are ready for immediate use. All this means that the share of transferred items in the number of combat-ready ones is much higher - and the damage to combat effectiveness is greater.

In a difficult situation

Thus, Germany is actively helping Ukraine with various weapons, equipment, ammunition and other military equipment, and is one of the largest suppliers of this kind. At the same time, aid processes have positive and negative consequences for the Bundeswehr. Thus, he gets the opportunity to free up warehouses and can also count on increased funding for additional purchases. At the same time, in the near future it will face a reduction in quantitative and qualitative indicators.

Most likely, Germany will continue to support the Kiev regime financially and with military products. All these processes will predictably hit her own potential and capabilities. Whether it will be possible to find a way out of this situation in the future, time will tell.

Comments

[FoBoss_VM]

It seems to me that the people in the Bundeswehr are not idiots after all. And the military understands that these supplies weaken Germany’s defense. But politicians run the show and they are under the external control of the United States and there are no options here. They will tell you to give everything - they will give it away

[Escariot]

Quote from: FoBoss_VM

It seems to me that the people in the Bundeswehr are not idiots after all. And the military understands that these supplies weaken Germany’s defense. But politicians run the show and they are under the external control of the United States and there are no options here. They will tell you to give everything - they will give it away

Military supplies from Germany simultaneously weaken Germany’s potential enemy. Moreover, this is done by someone else’s hands on someone else’s territory and with someone else’s blood. The situation couldn't be better. Moreover, in the last century the military was able to almost double the military budget, which will allow the army to buy new toys. Europe has been saving on the army for many years, and Germany spent less than 1.5% of GDP on defense. Now expenses have been increased and will spend more than 2% of GDP. The sleeping giant is gradually waking up from sleep. The EU + WB have the largest economy in the world, and the army is a shame to say. But now the time is coming for titanic shifts. A “golden shower” in the good sense of the word rained down on the military-industrial complex and the Army.

[Mavrikiy]

At the same time, the country’s leadership plans to continue supporting friendly Ukraine,

In which place? The fact that Ukraine swallows German money, weapons, and military experts does not make it a friend, and Germany is more likely to comply with US demands.

[rotmistr60]

It (the company) is also considered a good opportunity to get rid of stale equipment, freeing up warehouses for modern products.

On the one hand, this is true, but on the other hand, when the "stale goods" run out and Germany has to uncork its stash of more modern equipment, of which the Bundeswehr does not have any surplus today. There is no doubt that Germany will continue to provide financial and military assistance in this regard.

[2 Level Advisor]

Quote: rotmistr60

but on the other hand, when the “stagnant goods” run out and Germany has to uncork the stash with more modern equipment, the Bundeswehr has no surplus of which today

Gennady, it is very illogical, when there is no surplus of modern equipment, to keep a stash of it... and who in their right mind makes a stash of modern equipment, instead of supplying it to the troops? like the Su-34 would have been put into storage instead of being delivered to the troops? they're all junk basically they send it which had already been written off for storage and would never have gotten into the army if the war had not happened and only a small part of modern equipment... and I can’t say that this is bad for us..

[rotmistr60]

By “stash” I meant warehouses, and not some hidden separate part of the weapons. I should have put it in quotes.

[hagrid]

There is no immediate threat to German territory. No war is expected. So the emptiness of warehouses is not a problem for them. And the factories are working.

[Alexander]

Who knows how the cards will fall! RUSSIANS take a long time to harness, but they drive very fast!

[runway-1]

Quote: Aleksandral

Who knows how the cards will fall! RUSSIANS take a long time to harness, but they drive very fast!

It can be seen...

[Stas157]

. Aid to Ukraine and the consequences for the Bundeswehr

In the short term it may be negative. Because the Bundeswehr will have a shortage. And in the long term - positive. Generous orders for industry and saturation of the Bundeswehr with more modern weapons.

[Aster Klaster]

What orders? How new? We recorded a contraction in the economy and another decline the following year. There will be no more cheap gas, soon there will be no more cheap socks from China, what use will these panzerhowitzers be made of? And what kind of money should we use to develop new types of weapons?

[Escariot]

First of all, we need to understand that the army is primarily needed to repel external threats. Germany in particular and NATO in general have only one potential enemy in Europe - the Russian Federation, and everything else is either in the alliance or too small. And the army of Germany had to repel a potential offensive of a million-strong army of the Russian Federation. Quite a difficult task for which a lot of weapons are required. Now this "potential enemy" is not preparing for a decisive throw to the Rhine, but is trying to seize the waste heaps near Avdiivka. The level of conventional threat to the territory of both Germany and NATO allies has greatly decreased due to the fact that the "potential enemy" is firmly stuck in the Central Military District and is unlikely to have additional forces to open a second front in Poland or even in the Baltics. At the moment, Germany does not need a large army, because there is no enemy to fight. And in the future, the military budget of Germany will increase by 2 times and the missing equipment will be purchased over time.

[Wildcat]

At the moment, Germany does not need a large army, because there is no enemy with which to fight. And in the future, the military budget of Germany will double and the missing equipment will be purchased over time.

So that the German generals do not worry, they were immediately given 100 billion euros last year “to replenish supplies.” New weapons - American F35 for nuclear bombs, helicopters, air defense/missile defense from Israel, "military Internet", right down to new underwear for soldiers (something stable and not contaminating wounds if something happens) - all this will go under separate budget items , in addition to 100 "yards" euros.
At the same time, Germany, unlike Poland, is not going to deploy new units.

NATO's own assessment of the risks to NATO countries is as follows: "...Chairman of the NATO Military Committee Admiral Rob Bauer ...NATO's new planning is based on the size of the Russian army before President Vladimir Putin began ///// with Ukraine almost 17 months ago He said ///// had exhausted the Russian army, but not its navy or air force.
According to Bauer, of Russia's ground forces, "about 94% are now deployed //// in Ukraine."
“In general, we see that the Russians are cautious about NATO. They are not in favor of seeking a conflict with NATO. I think that’s a sign that they’re very, very busy,” he said. "In the land area, I don't think they have much power to do anything to anyone else."
“But we are convinced that the Russians are going to recover,” he said. "We will continue to view them as a serious threat, especially at sea and in the air and also in space, they are still very, very capable, not to mention, of course, nuclear weapons." https://english.elpais. com/international/2023-07-03/nato-readies-military-plans-to-defend-against-bruised-but-unbowed-russia.html
Based on these assessments, Germany is engaged in the Air Force, air defense/missile defense, and improving logistics, but only in such a way that it is not involved in any kind of “messing up the Slavs among themselves”; Germany does not need this.
Just in case, they are deploying auxiliary units like “Landwehr”/“weekend warriors” or something from worried bearded burghers in Germany. No more.

The main holiday is taking place in German industry, which cannot even “digest” all orders at once, but will continue to work for the Armed Forces of Ukraine in the genre of “not too little, not too much” / “cook the frog slowly” (c) M. Reisner.

[bear cub]

I think that Germany simply does not feel any threat, especially since it has a buffer in the east in the form of fanatical Poles. Until Poland is conquered, Germany has no opportunity to attack with conventional forces. At the moment, they are more worried about migrants starting to protest than about a possible armed conflict. I don't think getting rid of equipment from warehouses is such a problem for them.

[runway-1]

Until Poland is conquered, Germany has no opportunity to attack with conventional forces.

What forecasts! An alternative version of the future?!

[South Ukrainian]

Almost everything has not only disadvantages but also advantages. They got rid of the old stuff, tested new equipment in combat conditions, and increased the military budget. Of the minuses, they did a good job of spoiling the reputation of products that had been promoted all over the world. But this is not the main thing, but the main thing is that the future of Europe is very uncertain, especially in light of the situation in the Middle East, and the refusal of Russian energy resources.

[Ghost1]

Who will attack Germany, well, the words that Germany is weakening itself sound crazy, all this equipment was created against the USSR and then the Russian Federation, now the moment has come to weaken the Russian Federation with the wrong hands, so they will drive away the equipment until everyone can resist.

[Asker]

The Germans did not forget anything, they needed a reason, no decline in prosperity overpowered historical memory, they are simply enemies, and this will be for a long time, if not forever. We need to remember that the grandfathers of almost all today's Europeans fought with the USSR and raised their children and grandchildren accordingly..

[Kmon]

Ordinary Europeans became Russophobes long before the USSR was born. Read what they wrote about us during the Napoleonic wars, for example... This cannot be cured. Even 50 years of occupation and brainwashing did not help - the Germans only harbored a grudge against the liberators. And in the case of the Balts, Poles and Finns, generally under 300 years.

[David1993]

What a handsome Leo of the first modification. But subsequent versions are ugly angular barns

[bone1]

What difference does it make to the Germans - what do they have there in the Armed Forces - from whom does Germany defend itself, besides Poland?

[Knell wardenheart]

Why should the Bundeswehr be objectively afraid now? Let's look at the situation from a slightly different angle.
Now (no matter how much we like to bury the EU) Schengen is blooming and smelling, from whom should the Germans defend themselves in this situation? Will their NATO buddies from France or Italy, for example, rush to them?
Or maybe there is a real threat that in a few months we will break through 2/3 of Ukraine, reach the Polish border, break through Poland and...? No, there is no such threat - it is clear to everyone that it would smack of the aromas of half-life.
Actually, what are the Germans losing? Within the EU, their own armed forces have long turned into a kind of expensive decoration - now they need to get rid of as much junk as possible (in German, so to speak), on the quiet of this, somewhat revive their military industry, and in parallel with this, once again optimize the armed forces (including taking into account the current conflict). What is called is replacing the old with the new, taking into account new realities.
Inside Germany, if you look from the outside, from my sofa, tendencies of struggle between one political gang and another have been circulating for a long time. a gang - very conventionally, these are globalists VS a hodgepodge of “independent people”. Very good very good one could conditionally call them as such, all these colorful people have one thing in common - this can be said to be the last battle of the remnants of the “good old (and not good) Germany” against the new Germany, which is represented by the globalists. The same one where there is a woman Minister of Defense, carriages of migrants, reductions in the Armed Forces and manual mode from “Uncle Sam”. Of course, the first gang beats the second one dry, but it can’t do it super openly - and therefore, in order to tear apart the next portion of the clamps and part of the brickwork, you have to wait (to create) a reason, under the noise of which you can throw up your hands, so that, so to speak, it would be without noise and dust.
Reducing the army is a bad, very bad topic - but surely this can be smuggled in very well under the guise of “radical modernization”? And opponents from the “rednecks” will not be able to object to anything when pieces of paper are shoved in their teeth with an increase in the share of modern equipment in the troops and an increase in the production of shells at factories.
Modern Germany does not need this very “potential”; unlike Washington, they have long been accustomed to spanking the bureaucracy not with a club, but with paper folders. And although now all this is in line with the general bending towards the globalists, it cannot be said that this is “untraditional” for post-war Germany.