Russian DJI dependence and Chinese restrictions on drone exports
The wood is cut, the chips fly
China and the United States are trading barbs. First, Joe Biden approved the ominous “chip law”, prohibiting investment in the Chinese microelectronics industry and the supply of certain high-tech products. This is served under the sauce of concern for sovereign microelectronics.
But Russians and Chinese have long been second-class citizens in the United States. For example, Washington, under pain of criminal prosecution, prohibits the sale of the most modern photolithographs to Moscow and Beijing, without which you cannot make your own chips. And it’s not a matter of restrictions related to the special operation - the block for hi-end lithographs was delivered long before February 2022.
China potentially has something to respond to American attacks. In the summer, the administration of the Secretary General of the Communist Party announced export controls on rare earth metals - primarily gallium and germanium. The lion's share of these elements is mined and processed in China, which is why the rest of the world is now not doing very well. Metals are critical to the production of chips and other high-tech products. For example, without germanium there will be no thermal imagers. The situation with export controls is multifaceted.
On the one hand, all sorts of Europeans and Americans will look at China, and they themselves will begin to mine rare earth metals. It will be slow and expensive, but quite doable in the medium term. Yes, equipment dependent on gallium and germanium will have to wait on the shelves, but the Chinese exclusive will sooner or later compensate for the West.
On the other hand, Beijing may open the market at the most unexpected moment, and then billions of dollars in investments in the mining and processing of rare earth metals will go to waste. History will clearly have its own interesting development.
The second step in the trade war with the United States was Chinese restrictions on the export of parts drones and accessories for them. Electric motors, laser rangefinders and target designators, jammers drones and several items of communications equipment are now under close scrutiny. The official position of the regulator is that China wants to “protect national security and interests.”
Special permits are required for drones weighing more than 0,25 kg and a maximum take-off weight of 7 kg. These are almost all products capable of carrying a payload. When applied to a special operation, these are almost all UAVs capable of carrying a payload.
Moreover, China has separately limited the export of equipment capable of either dropping cargo or installing fasteners. But there is one “but” - drones in this category are subject to control only with integrated cameras. Nobody forbids you to buy a regular quadcopter and install the missing unit on it.
China seems to be seriously concerned about the use of civilian drones in military affairs. Hence the strict restrictions on the export of relevant products. DJI has already taken notice:
“We have never developed or manufactured military-grade products or equipment, nor have we ever promoted or sold our products for use in military conflicts or wars in any country.”
At the same time, it is difficult to even imagine how many billions the leading UAV manufacturer earned from the conflict in Ukraine.
Declaring a peace mission is always good. The only question is: which UAVs are not currently used on the battlefield? Perhaps, they are completely pocket-sized products with a flight duration of 10–15 minutes. But even such kids find their niche. In particular, in urban battles, when range and altitude are not as critical as in open areas.
DJI-dependency
There is a ghostly hope that China is not serious. First of all, due to the total dependence of the United States on DJI products. This is despite the declared war of the American government against the drones of this particular company. Since 2017, Washington has banned the purchase of DJI machines for the army; since 2020, the ban also applies to other security forces.
Later they even banned investing in DJI. Americans were frightened by the explosive growth of capitalization of the manufacturer of the world's best drones. The office is clearly a high-tech one, which means, according to the White House, it should be controlled by the United States. But China is not Taiwan and DJI remained under the wing of Beijing. This does not at all prevent Americans from still using the company’s products in almost all areas - up to 90 percent of the drones used by police, firefighters and rescue workers come from DJI. China cannot say directly:
"I will cripple your infrastructure and ground your observers."
Therefore, restrictions are introduced on dual-use devices. On paper - a ban on drones for war, in reality - for American users. Unfortunately, Russian interests here, at first glance, cannot be a priority.
From an economic point of view, we do not buy enough drones to take into account the Kremlin's opinion. The forest is being cut down - the chips are flying, and domestic DJI addiction may become the first victim. Another question is the political expediency of China's moves. And here everything is not so clear.
Support from Beijing is urgently needed not only in the direct supply of drones, but also in components. China is definitely in favor of a peaceful solution to the conflict, but on Russia’s terms. This requires drones, and lots of them.
It’s no secret that manufacturers receive a considerable part of the components of even “originally Russian” UAVs from China. These are control equipment, controllers, optics and electric motors. The rest, to one degree or another, have learned to build houses, but not on a large scale and at a completely different price.
Good news There seems to be an absence of electric motors with a power of up to 750 W in the Chinese stop list. Most of the motors for UAVs made in Russia have lower power – 300–500 W. All homemade reconnaissance and FPV machines are built on exactly these motors. There is a possibility that such a “window” was allocated specifically for Russia.
Like a ban on the export of heavy engines (gasoline and electric), which in our country are practically not used on cars of our own production. But Ukrainians love such drones, primarily for long-distance flights to Russian territory. Whether this is a coincidence or not is a big question.
There are also nuances in the ban on the sale of attachments abroad. We are talking about laser systems and thermal imagers. China banned purely military equipment, leaving civilian and hunting products alone. At the front, both Russians and Ukrainians use almost exclusively civilian equipment. Neither volunteers nor government buyers simply have enough money for military developments.
If Russia's notorious DJI dependence came under attack, it was only very conditionally. Agricultural and industrial drones were the first to be affected. But under current conditions this is not the biggest problem. Much more difficulties are caused to Russian volunteers by our own customs, about which any manufacturer of drones for the front can tell a lot and in vivid detail. And China is still on our side.
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