New rumors: supply of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine
ATACMS rocket launch from MLRS installation
Back in the spring of 2022, the Kiev regime began to beg from the United States for various modern weapons, incl. ATACMS operational-tactical missiles. He was denied the supply of such products, but the topic of the possible transfer of long-range missiles regularly surfaces in the form of rumors of varying degrees of sensationalism. The possibility of supplying ATACMS products to Ukraine has reappeared in the news a few days ago.
Latest news
At the end of the first ten days of September, several American publications reported that the White House and the Pentagon were again discussing the possibility of transferring ATACMS ballistic missiles to the Kyiv regime. ABC News, citing a source in the US leadership, wrote that the Joe Biden administration will make a positive decision in the near future. According to another source, missiles may be included in the next aid package. However, it may take several months before the actual delivery of products.
The next package was approved on September 21. It included a variety of weapons, equipment and property with a total value of $325 million. However, despite previous media reports, the package did not include operational-tactical missiles.
However, the American press did not abandon the hot topic. Already on September 22-23, new publications appeared on the topic of the upcoming delivery of ATACMS products. Referring to anonymous sources, they again reported on the resolution of this issue and the future start of deliveries.
As NBC wrote, the American leadership still intends to supply missiles to Ukraine. Moreover, the US President has already personally told his Ukrainian counterpart about this. At the same time, the agency could not even indicate approximate dates for sending the missiles or an official open announcement.
Starting from a HIMARS machine
Other information, also from unnamed sources, was published by The Washington Post. According to him, a decision has not yet been made, but the White House is already close to approving supplies. It is planned to transfer ATACMS missiles in a variant with cluster weapons and a firing range of up to 190 miles (300 km). The volumes of possible deliveries and the timing of the appearance of missiles in the combat zone are again not specified.
Thus, the situation with the possible supply of ATACMS missiles to Ukraine remains unclear. The American press has reported twice in recent weeks about the imminent provision of such assistance, but this news has not been confirmed, and some of it even contradicts each other. With all this, the real position of the White House and the Pentagon remains unknown, although the shipment of missiles has not yet begun.
Reasons for failure
It should be recalled that Kyiv began asking for long-range missile systems in the spring of 2022, shortly after the start of the Russian Special Operation. Subsequently, foreign partners provided him with some of the desired samples, but ATACMS ballistic missiles, despite all requests, have not yet been delivered. Moreover, it is not reliably clear whether the United States plans to give such weapon.
It is noteworthy that as discussions continued, more and more new arguments were expressed against sending operational-tactical missiles to the Kyiv regime. Political and military issues of various kinds were touched upon, and in all cases the transfer of ATACMS products was considered inappropriate or even potentially dangerous.
Thus, last year, various officials and unnamed sources from the United States said that the supply of long-range ballistic missiles would cause a negative reaction from Russia and lead to an escalation of the conflict. Such a development of events was considered unacceptable at that time. In addition, Washington feared the use of ATACMS missiles against targets on the “old” territory of Russia and the natural response to this.
ATACMS missile (left) and container of 227 mm shells
As with a number of other weapons, a problem of quantity arose. The Kiev regime has expressed a desire to obtain hundreds of ATACMS missiles, but the United States cannot agree to this. Such volumes of deliveries will lead to the depletion of America's own missile reserves and will affect the combat effectiveness of the ground forces.
In this context, it must be taken into account that the US Army stopped purchasing ATACMS series missiles ca. 20 years ago, and then their mass production was stopped. Only the line of limited productivity through which exports are carried out is maintained. In addition, existing missiles of old production are being modernized according to later projects. It is unknown whether it is possible to expand capacity and reach the previous production rates within a reasonable time frame.
In the near future, the US Army plans to switch from old ATACMS missiles to modern PrSM. However, full-scale mass production of the latter has not yet begun. Creating a large inventory of new products, which will allow the old ones to be gradually written off, will take several more years.
Thus, the United States is fundamentally ready to help Ukrainian formations and provide them with various weapons and ammunition taken from its own units and warehouses. However, at the same time, Washington is not going to sacrifice the combat effectiveness of its army, create additional political difficulties, etc. All this shows the real attitude of the American authorities towards the current Kyiv regime.
Technical factor
It cannot be ruled out that Kyiv is being rejected for another reason - due to the limited technical and combat capabilities of ATACMS products. These missiles are not without shortcomings and weaknesses, and the result of their use, incl. insufficiently trained Ukrainian crews may not meet expectations. Such a development could damage the reputation of the Pentagon and its ballistic missiles with a variety of consequences.
Working with rocket electronics
Development of tactical/operational-tactical ballistic missiles for the M270 MLRS launcher (later for the M142 HIMARS) started in the early eighties. In 1991, the first model of the future family, the M39 / MGM-140A / ATACMS Block I missile, entered service. Subsequently, new modifications of the missile were developed, and by the beginning of the XNUMXs, the US Army received several new ammunition with different features and capabilities.
It is unknown which missiles the Pentagon can transfer to Ukraine. At the same time, The Washington Post mentions a missile with a range of 300 km and a cluster warhead. Of the entire range of serial and designed ATACMS missiles, only the M39A1 or MGM-140B product, created in the late nineties, corresponds to this description.
This ammunition is approx. 4 m with a diameter of 610 mm with a stabilizer with a span of 1,4 m. Starting weight - 1320 kg. A significant part of the product body is occupied by a solid propellant engine, which provides start and acceleration in the active part of the trajectory. The missile is supplied in a sealed transport and launch container placed on an MLRS (2 missiles) or HIMARS (1 missile) launcher.
M39A1 and later ATACMS products are equipped with a control system based on inertial and satellite navigation. The declared QUO is no more than tens of meters. The warhead is a cassette with 275 M74 cumulative fragmentation combat elements. The area of dispersion of the elements is not specified.
From a technical point of view, the M39A1, like other ATACMS, is a conventional ballistic missile. The product flies along a predictable trajectory and develops only a limited speed, which corresponds to the operational-tactical class. Accuracy and combat load do not matter in this context.
Test firing results - a missile with a monoblock warhead was used
Objects with similar trajectory features are a fairly simple target for Russian air defense and missile defense systems. Moreover, when creating modern air defense systems, both military and target ones, ATACMS missiles were considered as typical targets for interception.
During the current Special Operation, Russian air defense systems of various classes and types managed to demonstrate the ability to destroy tactical and operational-tactical missiles, such as Tochka and Grim. ATACMS missiles are different from these products, but the differences are not fundamental. Anti-aircraft systems must cope with them and show a high probability of defeat.
Long history
Thus, for more than a year and a half, the Kiev regime has been trying to obtain American ATACMS ballistic missiles, but the United States is in no hurry to give it such weapons. During all this time, there are certain reasons for refusal, and each of them looks quite reasonable and justified. At the same time, certain circles in the American leadership, as well as the press associated with them, are trying to present the delivery of missiles as almost a fait accompli.
From all this it follows that there is still no consensus in the White House and the Pentagon about the transfer of ATACMS, and opponents of such a step are currently winning the debate. Supporters are trying to put pressure on them, but so far they have had no success. However, the Russian army is ready for any scenario. If the United States nevertheless decides to transfer operational-tactical missiles to Kyiv, Russian air defense will have all the necessary means of defense.
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