Where will we get shells tomorrow? In North Korea?
I would like to start with the sad news from the city of Engels, Saratov region. The 9th repair plant, for which its former director Colonel Shinkarenko fought, for the commissioning of which for the benefit of our army we and other no less caring media advocated with more than one material - has been sold.
Yes, more than one article in defense of the plant began with this photo, but alas. 9th TsARZ sold.
Sold to very respected people in certain circles from very high circles of power. And there’s nothing that can be done about it; apparently, they need space more than a plant that could repair BMPs and MT-LBs. Indeed, why repair them, old armored bases, if in our factories they are baked at the speed of Zhiguli cars in Soviet times? Sarcasm, of course, if anyone doesn't understand.
In general, it's a pity. The plant turned out to be unnecessary neither to the State Academic Technical University in particular, nor to the Ministry of Defense in general. What will be there now is a separate question, but definitely not a repair plant for military equipment, because everyone who could repair a repair plant was solemnly escorted off to the march “Thank you everyone, everyone is free.”
But perhaps (no sarcasm!) this is for the better.
After all, running a plant so that it works “like the good old days” is very difficult. I will now direct your gaze to such a seemingly inconspicuous detail as the machine base.
It would seem like a machine. Let's take, for example, a lathe where blanks for projectiles are sharpened. I don’t know how to use machines, I honestly admit, and I won’t pretend to be an expert, but even I, with my level, understand that the older and more worn out the machine, the greater the tolerances for the products it produces. And here you begin to understand the criticism from the artillerymen from the Northern Military District, who clearly say that the shells of the 90s are better than modern, pre-war ones. It’s logical that 30 years have passed and the machines have pretty much worn out their service life. Who repaired them and how is the third question.
I think that in the comments we will have a number of people knowledgeable in the topic and they will complement me. Because I will not raise the topic of moral and physical wear and tear, it will remain in the background, and we will talk about a slightly different topic that arises after the topic of wear and tear arises in all its glory.
The topic of equipment replacement
And here we have all the signs of an approaching catastrophe, because today Russian manufacturers have nothing to buy machine tools with...! Moreover, the horror is that there is nothing special to buy with this very thing.
Let's start translating?
Somehow in our country, as usual, amid patriotic bravura marches and optimistic interviews with people from all echelons of power, IMPORT SUBSTITUTION was announced. Such a powerful state program... It started in 2014 and was marked by the allocation of trillions of rubles for this very import substitution, the release of Resolutions, Government Decisions, and the approval of State Programs...
Well, you remember, it all came down to changing stickers from Chinese to Russian.
And already in May 2022, Minister of Economic Development Reshetnikov explained to those in the State Duma who still haven’t understood since 2014 that the term “import substitution”, which means the transition from importing necessary products to their independent production, is outdated, and “import substitution” also means replacing European imports with Chinese or Turkish ones.
So we also need to understand: you don’t have to produce it yourself, you can just buy it where they sell it. China, Turkey, India, Vietnam, Suriname, Ghana, Papua and so on on the list.
But you will have to make shells of your own caliber, 152,4 mm, yourself. Apart from North Korea, hardly anyone else produces them. And for this we need machine tools, because it is quite logical that if the country’s military industry operates in a mode as if the country was at war (and who said that the SVO consumes fewer shells than war?), then shells need to be fired as if in war . So that there are no shell riots caused by a shell famine, or, as it is now commonly called, “restrictions” in artillery shooting.
Logical, right? In order not to have to send people into an attack, backing it up with “artillery preparation” of four fired shells, it is necessary that there were these shells... well, like in 1945 near Konigsberg.
And for this we need machines. More precisely, they are where it is possible to replace imports by importing unauthorized things; there are machines, but they are not very much like machines.
The world leader in the machine tool industry today is, naturally, China. But this is in quantitative terms. That is, China produces the most equipment in the world. But since the base from which the PRC engineers started was by no means the best (Soviet), the result of copying Soviet equipment, multiplied by Chinese quality, gives... That's right, a lot of equipment is of average or lower quality, and also not very resourceful. That is, short-lived.
Everything here is very logical. If the equipment does not have a long service life, then it simply needs to be changed more often.
I encountered this when I worked at a syringe factory. It so happened that we used luxurious German injection molding machines from the company “Demag” (“Hansy”), Chinese Yizumi (“Raisin”) and Khmelnytsky injection molding machines, the nickname of which is now impermissible. But the “neighbors” actually provided half the volume, apparently because, out of their simplicity, they did not know such concepts as “resource” and “maintenance.” And repairing a Ukrainian injection molding machine is like repairing a Zhiguli in a garage. Not very painful and possible with the help of improvised means. The “Hans” themselves counted how many cycles they worked and simply stood up awaiting engineering intervention. It is necessary, it is not necessary - but if you please, change the antifreeze, nozzles, guides, and so on. “Raisins” simply broke down constantly; they had a “trick” in the constantly fluctuating injection pressure. And our engineers couldn’t do anything about it.
Of course, since then the Chinese machine tool industry has moved forward very much, this is indisputable, the Chinese are generally great in this regard, not only have they made copies work almost decently, but they are also beginning to implement their own developments. But ask any production worker, and he will put Chinese machines at the end of the list, preferring anything from Europe.
What happened here?
And the following happened to us: there was nothing to buy and nothing to use.
The Chamber of Commerce and Industry gives the following figures: last year, about 55% of enterprises planning to replace their processing base (machines) would like to buy equipment from European manufacturers.
Yes, it’s difficult to buy through intermediaries, even more difficult to deliver through third parties, but they understood everything and nevertheless wanted to buy decent equipment. So much for patriotism, here is the opportunity to buy “affordable analogues”.
But let me emphasize: those who worked on German equipment will not dream of Indian or Chinese equipment.
In 2023, the share of those wishing to make similar acquisitions fell to 9%. At the same time, the number of people wishing to purchase Russian equipment increased from 45% to 53%. Patriotic? Seems Yes. In fact, it’s not so much patriotism as finances.
To buy a machine through the “back Cyrillic” from Europeans, what do you need? No, not even a connection. Need dollars. Or euro. This is for starters. And the ruble, which has been halved, when converted to dollar/euro, gives you an idea of what a deplorable picture it is. You will need twice as many rubles as before. That is, it simply may not be enough.
Here, of course, banks are drawn. Our herd of bloodsuckers will not miss the opportunity to provide credit to producers. But here’s the problem: in addition to the damaged ruble, which fell down, the key rate increased. Nothing at all, 2,5%, but loans immediately became more expensive. The banks make minor faces and, hiding a smile (hello, Sber!) say with regret that they have nothing to do with it. This is all a government regulator.
In the end, money is evil, but evil is not enough
And contacting domestic equipment manufacturers is also not an easy task. As an example, I can give one of the two manufacturers of agricultural machinery in our city. The queue is already booked three years in advance; they do not have time to produce as many of their units as there are people willing to buy. It used to be more difficult, all sorts of Germans and Dutch got in the way, now it’s just freedom. Among the competitors are Belarusians and Chinese. There is a lot of work, the only thing missing is the production capacity to supply everyone with goods at once.
But it’s good when there are domestic analogues, even after some time of standing in line. But what to do when they are not there? Then all that remains is to look for a suitable one at a price from available equipment manufacturers.
If India were such a producer, it would be great. Billions of these rupees that were hanging there for Russian oil could be turned into machine tools. But alas, the Indians do not shine at all in this regard, and they prefer to trade in dollars. However, the same applies to China.
As a result, the situation is not very good from a financial point of view. The ruble has fallen in price by half, loans have risen in price. The number of people willing to sell necessary equipment to Russian factories has decreased in proportion to the sanctions.
Listen, just recently historical By standards, in 1990, the then Soviet Union held a confident third place in the world after the USA and Germany in the number of machine tools produced. The top three world leaders is strong.
Now some may say that quantity is one thing, but quality is another. Yes, of course, we lagged behind the Germans and Americans, but out of more than 250 metalworking machines that were produced in the USSR in 000, almost 1990 were already numerically controlled.
And our machines, not CNC, and simpler ones, were excellent for export. Yes, not to the G7 countries, but they went.
But literally five years later, by 1995, the share of CNC machines in the assortment of the Russian machine tool industry fell to almost zero. The beginning of the systematic destruction of the radio-electronic industry of the USSR had an effect. But they did not stop producing other machines, even simple ones. And these machines found their consumers, since they were really accurate and repairable, with a huge service life.
However, the bravura process of “getting up from your knees” for some reason finished off the Russian machine tool industry by 2010. More than 50 machine-tool factories were liquidated, and those that survived significantly reduced the range of products they produced. Why, we could buy everything for oil and gas dollars...
And now that’s it. The European shop is closed, and if you can buy something, then in comparison with the near 2020, everything costs more. The ruble, which has fallen in price by 42%, the jumping cost of loans, payment for intermediaries and delivery through the territories of third countries - all this increased the cost of the necessary equipment by 2-3 times.
As a result, there was actually nothing left to buy machines with. It makes no sense to count on help from a state whose money goes to war. But you will still have to change the machine park.
“A massive replacement of machine tools by Russian enterprises is expected in the next three to five years. ... a major change in the market structure and demand for machine tools is not expected due to the preservation of the current technological structure. Lathes, milling and grinding machines will be in demand.”
This is how Evgeniy Balekin, development director of the well-known company RT-Capital (part of Rostec), assessed the prospect.
But shells, missiles and cartridges are still needed. War, you know, doesn’t care about the machine park and its condition. The army needs ammunition. Of course, it is more than a shame to buy ammunition from the rogue countries of Iran and North Korea, but for full dollars and weapons they will share technology.
It is clear that today the remaining military-industrial complex enterprises are tasked with doubling, or better yet tripling, the production of ammunition. Okay, two shifts. The third is doubtful, since the cult “I’m so stupid, I should go to the machine” worked quite magnificently in previous years. Almost no one wants to go to the machine. There is a severe shortage of personnel at all processing plants and where to get them is the question.
And even migration policy will not help. If our people don’t want to stand at the machine, then those who arrived cannot because of their inability.
But the problem of replacing the fleet also remains. Machines operating in the enhanced “Really Necessary” mode will, quite expectedly, begin to break down and require repair and replacement. That is, European and American equipment can already be written off in advance. What remains?
Of course, I really hope that this won’t affect everything aviation industry where precision is very important. But the ammunition production industry is no less important, because this is exactly what the army stands on - on a sufficient (although in war there is never enough) amount of ammunition.
And when the enterprises producing ammunition begin to disrupt the state defense order due to the fact that their machine park is completely worn out, who will be to blame? Of course, plant directors who did not ensure timely replacement and repair of equipment. But not our highly respected bankers and financiers. They do everything absolutely correctly.
Well, let's count on North Korea.
Photos for illustration are taken from the workshops of the Leningrad Mechanical and Ulyanovsk Cartridge Plants
Information