The US Navy needs diesel submarines

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Indeed, the news very ambiguous, but excuse me, but when was everything clear and unambiguous? However, the suddenly awakened interest in diesel-electric submarines among American specialized media such as "1945" and "The Drive" is revealed quite simply.

Но обо всем по порядку.



The US Navy needs diesel submarines

Dr. James Holmes in his article issued the following: The US Navy needs diesel-electric submarines now. On the other side of the world, many have made their way, but here's the catch - Holmes is one of those people who are listened to. Although, of course, he has a reputation ...

James Holmes, although a doctor, and even heads the department of naval strategy at the Naval War College, but first of all he is a former officer in the US Navy, he was the last artillery officer of the battleship Missouri and can be said to have entered the history. Yes, 1991, Persian Gulf. Holmes gave the command to fire 406-mm shells, after him no one else did this.


In addition to teaching naval strategy, Holmes writes books. His collaboration with Toshi Yoshihara, Red Star Over the Pacific, was voted Best Book of 2010 by the Atlantic Monthly. And it is recognized not only in the United States, but also in China, which, in fact, was discussed.

That is, the person understands what he is talking about. Some US military analysts believe that Holmes is exaggerating on China and exaggerating the power of the PRC, but everything is not so clear-cut.

The fact is that not so long ago, the US Navy presented Congress with a secret shipbuilding plan, according to which the US will have a navy of 381 ships, not counting ships without a crew, which they would like to have about 150. This is more than 299 ships in service today. , and this will exceed the level of 355 ships provided by US law by 26 ships.

"Hawks" is, of course, happy. Increase fleet for some, a balm for the soul, because they are naval fans, for others - an opportunity to earn money. For such, this is very good news, provided that the US shipbuilding complex can cope with the additional load. In this, by the way, there are certain doubts among many in the United States.


And of course, an indispensable condition is the provision of these programs with money. If Congress raises enough taxpayer money to build, operate and maintain such a fleet, then in theory it looks like nothing. Vigorously and confidently.

Whether legislators will see the matter through is a question. After all, it's been seven years since they introduced the 355 ship mandate, and the actual number of warships is hovering where it was in 2016. And today, many in the US are already really stressed by the way China's shipyards are building ships and submarines on their way to the announced PLA fleet of 500 ships.


In general, there are doubts about the capabilities of American shipyards. In addition, one should not discount the power required for the maintenance and overhaul of ships. US Navy officials have announced that of the 49 nuclear attack submarines (SSNs), 20 percent are in maintenance and overhaul at any given time.

In addition, there are ships that are idle waiting for major repairs. As an example - the same "Connecticut", which collided with something unidentified in the South China Sea.

By the way, the South China Sea - we will return to it, this is, in fact, a separate issue.

In total, if you believe the statistics, then to complete all the tasks in the two oceans, the United States has only 31 boats in combat condition. A lot of? Few? Enough? It all depends on the time when the kneading starts, weapons never even enough. It has been tested many times in practice.

Of course, the United States is working on this, and last year, as part of the publication of the unclassified part of the shipbuilding program, a figure of 66 submarines was announced, but it looks somewhat fantastic. That is, it is necessary to build "only" 17 submarines. Looks, you know...

Hence, information about unmanned underwater vehicles such as "Orca" (XLUUV) does not look like something so supernatural. In theory, a 50-meter unmanned damn thing will serve as a minelayer, and defense manufacturers and the navy will work on adding new missions to the unmanned underwater vehicle capability.


In general, it must be said that the Orca project is a promising development. The US Navy as a whole is trying to implement its plan to distribute combat power among a much larger fleet, and not concentrate it in a few dozen large, expensive, albeit multi-purpose ships like the same aircraft carriers or UDC.

The sinking of a missile cruiser or destroyer, or putting such a ship out of action, immediately reduces the share of the total combat power of the fleet. Accordingly, it requires strengthening anti-surface, anti-submarine and air defense along with anti-missile defense. And this is quite logical, because the loss of one ship (or several) immediately reduces the ability to connect ships in a given region.

Conversely, the dispersal of firepower, sensors, and command and control functions gives stability to formations of ships in a combat situation. The fleet continues to fight despite the loss of individual combat units.

And here we are looking at the South China Sea



We are looking not only at a frankly small water area, but also at a decent number of islands. A rather small number of square kilometers of land and the huge ambitions of some countries.

In general, this water area does not have a single name. The world knows it as the South China Sea, Vietnam calls it the East Sea, and the Philippines the West Philippine Sea. It washes the shores of eight countries in the southeastern part of Asia and is an important strategic place on the world map. It is here that the main world shipping routes pass. For example, 50% of all Indian exports and imports and two-thirds of all oil entering China move through the South China Sea.

Therefore, control over this sea area was an important geopolitical task for the states. But in the South China Sea, a unique situation has developed - in its waters there are two archipelagos that ... generally draws!

On the one hand, this is strange, on the other hand, it is justified. There are two archipelagos on which the natives never lived, there were no mountains, lush vegetation, or sources of water. Seriously, just pieces of land scattered (very chaotically) over the surface of the great Pacific Ocean. Coral reefs, atolls, rocks. The area of ​​the largest island was 1,5 square kilometers, the area of ​​the smallest island was 0,08 square kilometers.

130 islands and islets of the Paracel archipelago and 150 islands of the Spratly archipelago. There are no animals, no birds, no people on them, there are no convenient bays for parking either. Therefore, the two archipelagos for a long time remained without the attention of the adjacent states.

But today the Paracels and the Spratlys are such a complex piece of land that the Falklands are nothing compared to them. SIX states claim these territories. China, Vietnam, Philippines, Malaysia, Taiwan and Brunei. The last three active actions are not taken and are only limited to claiming their rights to parts of the archipelago. But China, the Philippines and Vietnam are much more determined.


The race for sovereignty. Familiar? Yes. So China, Vietnam and the Philippines compete to set their flags on the islands, or even several times. Plus the constant debate at the UN and demands to recognize the territories as their own. But China went the farthest: in 1947, he released his atlas, where he took absolutely all the islands with a wide hand, even those on which the flags of other countries fluttered. Modest and tasteful.

Then there were the courts initiated by the Philippines at the UN to recognize the illegal occupation of the PRC of the islands, there was a decision of the international court in 2016, which condemned China's policy and ruled that the PRC has no "historical right" to the disputed territories in the South China Sea.

And what? And nothing. If you have a fleet of 500 ships, you don't care. So China is somehow purple on the UN decisions.

Why? It's simple: oil and gas on the shelf near the same Spratly Islands. It seems like a draw, but ... As soon as China begins work on oil exploration and production, Vietnam brings almost its entire navy into the water area, the Philippines begin exercises in the area, Taiwan strengthens its garrison, and Brunei and Malaysia begin to vote in the UN. China responds by ramping up its military presence, and soon there are so many gun-toting ships in the region that there simply isn't room for geologists, drillers, and builders in the sea.

In fairness, it should be said that if Vietnam begins exploration work, then everything is repeated exactly the opposite.

A fair question arises: what does diesel-electric submarines, so much needed by the United States, have to do with it?

Answer: what does the nuclear submarine "Connecticut" have to do with it, which has swooped down in ... yes, in the South China Sea?


The practice of the presence of US Navy nuclear submarines has shown that the South China Sea is, to put it mildly, a bit crowded for them.

The US Navy, the Marine Corps do not hide the fact that they are working on tactics of action in the Asia-Pacific region, since the PLA Navy is the main headache for American strategists today. In terms of tactics, everything is simple: it is necessary to deprive the enemy of the advantage in the sky and on the water that surround the islands that make up the first chain of islands in Asia.

If you seal the first chain of islands, and lock the PLA Navy and Air Force together with the Chinese merchant fleet in the near seas, deprive them of the ability to maneuver, and half the task of neutralization will already be solved.

And here the submarine forces come on the scene, which, like no one else, can cope with the task of blockade. This was proven by two World Wars in the performance of German submariners.

A nuclear submarine in the straits between the islands is not a very wise decision. They are too big and not very maneuverable. But the US Navy has no others.

True, the allies have diesel-electric submarines in various blocks of the AUKUS type. There are many nuances here, really. For example, South Korea and Japan will not be US allies in the same military alliance. Japan occupied Korea, the Koreans are not just “not forgotten, not forgiven”, but there is a certain hostility.

The Republic of China, which on Taiwan will also never ally with Japan. And the Philippines. They all got it from the Japanese during the Second World War, BUT: the United States has bilateral defense treaties with all of the above countries. That is, South Korea, Taiwan, the Philippines will support all US undertakings on the one hand. On the other hand, there will be Japan.

Something like "divide and conquer", but the implementation of this principle gives about a million soldiers and two (Japanese and South Korean) very decent fleets. Plus, all four countries (except the Philippines) are not very good looking towards China.

So the blockade, patrol service in the conditions of islands and straits is a fairly easy task for diesel submarines. Both the Japan Maritime Self-Defense Force and the Republic of Korea Navy, which use diesel-electric submarines, have long been successful at this.


But the trouble is - will these countries “in which case” start fighting on the front section of the sea front without the United States? The question is rather complicated. The experience of previous NATO operations shows that yes, the British, Canadians, Germans, even Italians behave very well if the Americans are around. Naturally, in quantities proportional. As in the same Iraq, where during the first Gulf War the United States fielded 450 people, and, say, France 000. That is, 18 to 000. Well, you understand the analogy.

Without the Americans, the war with China will not work. This can generally be taken as an axiom. And, if someone wants to do something like that with China, then he just needs to be aware of how everything can end before it starts.

Holmes almost openly says that the principle “If you want everything to be good, do everything yourself” is inscribed here in fiery letters, as at the feast of King Belshazzar. But here, instead of Belshazzar, it could be the Commander-in-Chief of the US Navy.

That is, if the United States wants to take control of the South China Sea with its allies, then they will have to fork out. The sea is not for nuclear submarines and aircraft carriers. Small and all in the islands. But diesel-electric submarines that will close the straits and straits are serious.

And here the American generally says sedition: if the United States does not have its own (and where should they come from, America has not been building its diesel-electric submarines for a long time) capacities and projects, why not order boats on the side? For example, the same allies of the Japanese. It can be assumed that, say, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, which produced the Soryu and today produces the Taigei, which are definitely very good boats, could lay a certain number of ships for the United States.

I don't even want to talk about the capabilities of another giant, Hyundai Heavy Industries. Chinese shipbuilding is something, but together Japanese and South Korean shipbuilders will be cooler.
Besides, money!

The Japanese Parliament has allocated $602,3 million for the latest version of the Taigei-class boats, which are equipped with lithium-ion batteries. Compare that to the whopping $3,45 billion that the next "block" of Virginia-class submarines will cost the US Navy. That is, five diesel-electric submarines for the price of one nuclear submarine. It's okay, SSN boats are supposed to cost that much, but...

Filling the above deficit of 17 submarines (in the case of non-nuclear boats) will cost taxpayers about $10,24 billion. This, of course, is much less than the originally laid down price of $58,65 billion for 17 Virginia Block V boats. This figure should please budget-conscious employees in Congress, on the one hand, and on the other, non-nuclear boats will really enhance the capabilities of AUKUS exactly there, in native Chinese waters.

Under the AUKUS agreement, the United States will provide the Royal Australian Navy with three to five Virginia-class submarines, operating the Australian Navy until Australian shipbuilders can build the infrastructure and experience to build their own. submarines. It is difficult to say how feasible this is at all, given that the US Navy has a shortage of submarines, and the same Virginias are not very suitable for operation in inland seas.

To keep the US submarine fleet at least up-to-date, not to mention its expansion, not to mention the supply of nuclear submarines to Australia, the US shipbuilding industry, which is already working in a very tough mode, will have to be strained.

So the option of contacting imported manufacturers is not such a stupid idea. This would satisfy the needs of the US Navy, and would allow America to carry out all its programs of dominion over the world.

If you buy boats from the same Japanese, this will be a very serious step in strengthening the anti-Chinese alliance. In addition, boats would not have to be constantly transferred from the Asia-Pacific region to the United States for repairs and upgrades. Japan is much closer.

The boats would be based near potential battlefields along the first chain of islands, as well as in shipyards capable of servicing and refitting them. This is beneficial both from a tactical point of view and from a strategic one. Well, it saves money.

If it is really about how to somehow resist the ever-growing PLA Navy and the ambitions of China, really new moves and new solutions are needed. And the creation of a fleet of non-nuclear submarines could be one such move.

Control over the straits in the transit South China Sea is very important. And for this, you can take such steps.

However, I would add some diesel fuel to the very reasonable tactics of Holmes. American submarines based in the Asia-Pacific but built and maintained in Japan is an interesting move. But I'm afraid that even in this case, China has an equally original answer, which is generally not paid attention to.

We are talking about such a thing that has disappeared from our everyday life as the fishing fleet of China, capable of putting at least a thousand ships “under a mine”. It's really scary: at every corner, at every island and in every strait, a fishing seiner will stick around and feel submarines with their sonars, with which they are looking for schools of fish.


The tactic is simple: a trough with sonars and a radio station / satellite channel (which China has no problems with) controls part of the sea area. And there are dozens of such boats. Hundreds. When a boat is found, they simply give the coordinates, after which the sea aviation and the submariners begin to have a headache and body pain.

But this is also a theory. We will see how it will be in practice. But the fact that China will not be given this sea just like that is clear and understandable. The question is how and what the parties will do in this direction.
43 comments
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  1. +6
    7 August 2023 05: 05
    oil and gas on the shelf near the same Spratly Islands. It seems like a draw, but ... As soon as China begins work on oil exploration and production, Vietnam brings almost all of its navy into the waters,

    Mankind mediocrely uses the resources of the planet, spending them on completely useless things in the long run.
    I'm afraid our civilization is on a dead end path of development ... all this fuss with building up military fleets and trying to take control of the remaining areas with oil and gas is a road to nowhere.
    The governments of different countries began to live one day ... snatch, rob, get drunk and that's it, and then at least the grass does not grow.
    Well, the Americans or the Chinese will build a dozen new diesel submarines, well, they will grab another piece of the sea with oil, and then what?
    1. +2
      7 August 2023 07: 25
      Quote: Lech from Android.
      oil and gas on the shelf near the same Spratly Islands. It seems like a draw, but ... As soon as China begins work on oil exploration and production, Vietnam brings almost all of its navy into the waters,

      Mankind mediocrely uses the resources of the planet, spending them on completely useless things in the long run.
      I'm afraid our civilization is on a dead end path of development ... all this fuss with building up military fleets and trying to take control of the remaining areas with oil and gas is a road to nowhere.
      The governments of different countries began to live one day ... snatch, rob, get drunk and that's it, and then at least the grass does not grow.
      Well, the Americans or the Chinese will build a dozen new diesel submarines, well, they will grab another piece of the sea with oil, and then what?

      Further? There are more and more people and fewer resources. The largest country on the planet is Russia, located on the most ancient continent, so there are many resources here, and they are close to the surface. The country's population is declining and the ethnic composition is changing. Russians are getting smaller and smaller. And which of the Tajiks and Kyrgyz are the defenders of the Motherland? The only time in history when they achieved independence for their countries was when we gave them independence. These are slaves. They absorb servility with their mother's milk. Probably, otherwise these peoples would not have been able to survive in Central Asia, surrounded by enemies from all sides. Central Asians are not warriors. They can't protect Russia. All hope for robots, Drones. Otherwise, in the battle for resources, Russia will be torn to pieces, like Tuzik a heating pad.
      There is a possibility that it will come to the brain of the leaders of the Russian Federation that the country cannot be defended without the Russians. It is necessary to change the social model of the state so that Russian women give birth to 2-3 or more children. Otherwise, we will die out, like mammoths and saber-toothed tigers, which, by the way, also lived in our country.
      1. +1
        7 August 2023 09: 17
        Well, Africa is also rich in resources, which is why some small war is being started there and the South. America. And how much wealth lies at the bottom of the oceans?
        1. -2
          9 August 2023 07: 17
          The governments of different countries began to live one day ... snatch, rob, get drunk and that's it, and then at least the grass does not grow.

          This is the view of intellectuals and liberals who have forgotten that life is always a struggle and this has been going on for millions of years. Whoever is stronger is always right and well-fed, because the weak is not able to challenge this.
          A million years ago, our ancestors also lived one day, the main thing is to survive, and for this you need not to become the prey of others, but to get the prey yourself. No morality or idle chatter will stop this process, and the Americans understood this a long time ago and are putting it into practice, the Chinese also realized this, accumulated strength and began to act.

          In general, we need to discuss the fleets of China and the United States, as well as Japan and South Korea, as training and not criticism at all, because any of these fleets is at a much higher level of development. We also need a fleet. Our Pacific Fleet, for example, is the weakest in the Pacific region, and we need to think about how to solve this huge problem and not inflate the minor problems of their fleets against the backdrop of the horror into which our fleet in general and the Pacific Fleet in particular were driven. At the Pacific Fleet, for example, we don’t have forces capable of blocking the Kuril straits not only with submarines, we don’t have modern mines either, and it wouldn’t be surprising at all if these straits are controlled, for example, by the Japanese on their Soryu, even our promising 6 obsolete Varshavyanka are not able to do this, because they will have a lot of other tasks.
    2. +4
      7 August 2023 15: 54
      And when did everyone on our planet have enough resources? 500 years ago? 1000 years ago? Maybe it's not about resources at all, but about people? That they cannot live in harmony and justice? Hence the gigantic expenditure of the same resources to kill each other, instead of using them for the development of all mankind. Yes, and take the consumer market today - huge resources are spent on all sorts of "fashionable" gadgets with a short lifespan, and then - in the trash. The earth is able to feed and give everything for the development of a much larger number of people.
      1. +2
        8 August 2023 12: 03
        All fashionable gadgets, like refrigerators and everything, could have a long service life, if it had a long service life, then this would not be profitable for the manufacturer. They would lose colossal money and would not incur losses.
        1. -1
          15 August 2023 10: 25
          this is the manufacturerю it would not be beneficial

          This is a common myth. There is no single manufacturer of gadgets or refrigerators. If the average buyer has the opportunity to change gadgets every few years, and he changes them due to obsolescence, then it makes no sense to release them with a resource for a longer period.
  2. +4
    7 August 2023 06: 14
    But the fact that China will not be given this sea just like that is clear and understandable.

    It's too late, they've already "given away"... Dozens of Chinese bulk islands with waterways and mooring walls have now left no chance for other fleets in the region. Either there will be a beating of "babies", or it is necessary to concentrate SUCH forces and means that even the "democrats of the whole world" do not have at this stage.
    Therefore, speech is not in the sea, but in the WORLD.
    China wants the whole world, but the United States and Co. definitely do not want to give it away, which is why the largest conflict of our time is brewing.
    As for the diesel-electric submarines, again, the Democrats were late. The Chinese have several dozen quite decent diesel-electric submarines, they have been exploiting them for a long time, they can easily fend off any similar threat, simply by raising the construction of nuclear-powered submarines to a fantastic pace. And they can do it. Supershipyards are almost ready for this. No Japan and Korea are able to keep up with China - this is also a modern fact. It remains only to rely on the technical excellence of Japanese submarines. But for how long is it..?
    1. -7
      7 August 2023 08: 07
      All these bulk islands are leveled by simple actions, the blockade of these same islands, then the water will end on the islands and Chinese sailors and other personnel will raise a white flag. For this, you can safely use the airfields of the Philippines of Taiwan and the joint fleet of the allies. Yet, so far, the total fleets of Japan, Korea, the United States and the Philippines are superior to the Chinese both in the number of ships and in the quality of them.
      1. +4
        7 August 2023 09: 19
        How to block? Open fire with cannons or crush with the body? so the Chinese will answer
      2. +5
        7 August 2023 09: 21
        Quote from Kamil Fazliev
        All these bulk islands are leveled by simple actions, the blockade of these same islands

        Blockade? The area of ​​the South China Sea is 3,5 million square meters. km., the Parassel archipelago alone is spread over 50 thousand square meters. km. The navel will not untie the Navy and the USMC to block everything?

        Quote from Kamil Fazliev
        For this, you can safely use the airfields of the Philippines of Taiwan and the joint fleet of the allies

        The PLA has a very impressive arsenal of the ROC (maybe even the largest in the world) ... How long will the Philippine / Taiwanese airfields operate? It seems that not for long ... PLA aviation will dominate the skies in this region, and Chinese air defense systems on the same islands will not really let the democrats' carrier-based aircraft roam. It seems that in such conditions the "blockade" will be blown away faster than the blocked garrisons will feel it.

        Quote from Kamil Fazliev
        Yet, so far, the total fleets of Japan, Korea, the United States and the Philippines are superior to the Chinese both in the number of ships and in the quality of them.

        Yes, only the "democrats of the whole world" cannot afford to concentrate everything in one region (just as the "mistress of the seas" could not do this, having a complete superiority in the list, but forced to be ALWAYS and EVERYWHERE). Plastic-glass South Korea (in the case of real support for the Democrats in a hot conflict against China) will burn in the first weeks of the war ... The Philippine fleet is a good joke. As for Japan, it is perhaps the only significant US ally in the region with a powerful fleet. On the other hand, Japan is only islands, the economy of which is entirely dependent on maritime trade. Will the numerous Chinese submarines upset this balance? Quite. Yes, and from Chinese missile bases to the Japanese islands is also not very far ...
        US allies look good on statistical tables, but in reality, when it comes to rocket bombing their own skyscraper cities, who knows how things will turn out ...
        1. 0
          7 August 2023 14: 30
          In order to block all these islands, it is not necessary to scatter their forces at each island or throughout the sea, it is enough to make sure that the Chinese cannot swim there, and then these artificial islands, deprived of supplies and not having in the vast majority even sources of drinking water, will either surrender or die from thirst. Yes, they have a huge arsenal of kr, but they are also not weak about allies in the region. In addition, the Americans and in the future the Japanese. Well, yes, about the dominance of Chinese aviation, well, I’m not sure, uh, most of these bases are small complexes of structures with one or two lanes, it’s difficult to defend them, because it’s impossible to saturate it tightly with air defense, the area is not the same, and to place a large number of aircraft too, because supply will be extremely difficult. Therefore, it will be quite easy to knock them out. In general, there is no certainty that the Chinese will be able to attract a sufficient number of aircraft there to protect all the islands, rather they will be able to protect the largest and most fortified ones, no more than that, but it will be possible to deal with them, again, the less these islands remain, the less aviation Chinese in the region and the less air defense in the region. In general, it will be impossible to defend the islands without the involvement of strong formations of the Chinese fleet, only China will also have to act against Japan and South Korea, again with the fleet and aircraft, and moreover, do something with the Strait of Malacca, on which China is critically dependent. And while it is firmly occupied by the allies of the United States and the United States itself. So in which case even the loss of the South China Sea will not be critical, because China will lose its maritime trade due to the blockade of the Strait of Malacca
          1. +3
            8 August 2023 01: 44
            Quote from Kamil Fazliev
            even the loss of the South China Sea will not be critical, because China will lose its maritime trade due to the blockade of the Strait of Malacca

            So that this does not happen \ to prevent this, China is building its own Navy. Do not forget that the ENTIRE Chinese fleet will operate in the South China Sea and the Straits of Malacca, including numerous frigates, corvettes, diesel-electric submarines, missile boats (in the region of the islands in the South China Sea for sure) and DBK on all these alluvial islands. And this is all a coma of Chinese destroyers and aircraft carriers.
            AUCUS fleets? China has quite a few anti-ship missiles, incl. and ballistic.
            And do not forget the main thing - China, this is a nuclear power, which right now is making a powerful breakthrough from the second division to the Major League of nuclear powers - in the next 10 years, China will equate its strategic nuclear forces with the strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia.
            And then how can AUKUS jump on such a monster?
            Will they really sink Chinese ships, capture their merchant ships and island bases?
            Seriously ? No. fool
            Do you really think that South Korea and Japan will fight against China for a long time?
            Even with the support of AUCUS? lol
            Yes, they will burn in the very first days of such a conflict. And the US will not have any bases in the region. And no allies. The Philippines, immediately after the execution of Japan, will make the right choice and go into neutrality or under China. The Straits of Malacca can only be securely blocked if Malaysia and Vietnam agree to this. And they will not fight with China. No matter how they clashed before, they will not fight. And you won’t be able to buy them either - China has more money. And it is much CLOSER.
            So it will be very difficult for the Anglo-Saxons to fight with the Chini.
            Difficult , but ... possible . If you introduce War Communism in your countries, labor service and consumer cards. Stop feeding the blacks, but make them work (that's a screech) on restoring the US infrastructure like under Roosevelt, repair roads (including iron ones, which are just in a terrible state) bridges, tunnels, etc. infrastructure ... restore their own shipbuilding and in general to carry out a new industrialization of the country. Otherwise, in this confrontation, the United States and AUKUS will only have ambitions, and an aging fleet, already inferior in both the number of pennants, and even the total displacement of the Chinese.
            Who from the USA and AUCUS will carry out the blockade you so longed for?
            I repeat - by the end of the decade, China will have at least 1000 strategic warheads on carriers, and already in the first half of the next - full parity with the United States and the Russian Federation, and it is not known whether China will stop in this matter ... It is quite possible that it will try to play it safe and do it in the result is twice as much ... Or three ... Or five. The economy allows it.
            And it is unlikely that India will be able to play against China.
            So if someone wants to stop / contain China, then they need to do it right now, and not play "king of the hill" in Eastern Europe and the Northern Black Sea region. If Russia is next to China in this confrontation, not even as a military ally, but as a trading partner and a good neighbor, then AUKUS's navels will be untied from such attempts.
            And the neutrality of Russia can be bought ONLY ONE.
            Trump understands this.
            But the mad Democrats - no.
            1. -1
              8 August 2023 08: 07
              If the Chinese send their entire fleet to the Strait of Malacca, what a good gift it will be for the allies to expose their coast (no matter how much they strengthen it, it will not be possible to protect it all well, moreover, it is all critically important for China because it is all now, in fact, a continuous metropolis with production shipyards and other things). Malaysia, if it were so good for China, would buy Chinese frigates and not Japanese ones, for example. But still, Japanese Mogami are being built for Malaysia and not Chinese. About nuclear weapons, in order to hit them, you need to overcome the pro system, but Japan has a very powerful one and is touched from year to year, moreover, soon the Japanese will have their own missiles capable of most likely carrying a nuclear charge, and with the further militarization of China, they will also have their own nuclear warheads , they talked about it quite recently in July of this year. So nuclear strikes against China even without the participation of the United States in 10-15 years can be costly. And with the participation of the United States, this is death for China, because the processing of coastal regions by the US nuclear arsenal for China means the destruction of everything in general. So, will China withstand further militarization? She already has so many economic problems. The real estate market is still in a fever, construction is stalled and people are still going bankrupt, moreover, there are problems with debts in the provinces, so much so that you have to ask the Beijing Center for help, all sorts of Alibaba groups fire tens of thousands of people because of problems. Youth unemployment is on the rise and so on. And while the Chinese government somehow did not take any serious measures to eliminate all these problems, and this is without taking into account what will happen when ships sailing to China are blocked. No matter how rich Russia is in resources, Siberia is poorly developed and the transport infrastructure between China and Russia is not yet particularly developed, but pipes are being laid (and thank God) and railways are expanding (finally) but so far this is very, very little. The Chinese market is huge and much of it is fed by the sea. And I personally doubt very much that the Chinese will be able to hold this sea. The front is huge, there are plenty of important points too. It is necessary to capture Taiwan and hold the Strait of Malacca, and have enough forces in the north, otherwise the Japanese will come to Taiwan, since it is not far and the South China Sea must be kept, otherwise these islands will die of banal thirst. So, having at least a larger fleet, the Chinese will have to spray it otherwise. Actually, like the same allies, but the allies have a lot of well-fortified bases in the region and the US nuclear arsenal behind them and in the future also the Japanese
              1. 0
                8 August 2023 17: 32
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                If the Chinese send their entire fleet to the Strait of Malacca, what a good gift for the allies to expose their coast

                lol To organize control / ensure the safety of navigation, it is enough for China to keep one squadron of operational deployment in the region of the straits. Yes, on an ongoing basis, as the USSR did in its time. And China already has enough resources (of the same fleet). One of the aircraft carriers, two or three UDCs (China already has a dozen and a half - Type. 071 and Type. 075), a dozen and a half frigates, 6 - 8 destroyers and half a dozen diesel-electric submarines operating relying on surface forces can operate there. And in this area, up to several hundred ships of the Volunteer Fleet of the PRC can operate ... not the most fishing ships, which, in combination, can control the underwater space with their sonars, monitor the surface situation, and, if necessary, conduct electronic intelligence ... and of course supply ships of the operational squadron with fresh fish. Yes
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                Malaysia, if it were so good for China, would buy Chinese frigates and not Japanese ones, for example. But still, Japanese Mogami are being built for Malaysia and not Chinese.

                The world on our mortal planet today is so ... changeable ... And the opinions and policies of small states, even more so.
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                About nuclear weapons, in order to hit them, you need to overcome the pro system, and Japan has it very powerful and is touched from year to year

                To date, there is absolutely, and even a sufficiently reliable missile defense system. Especially against those maneuvering in the final section of the BB. It's just that for each target (if such a missile defense system really exists), 2-3 missiles must be allocated. And everything will work out. And if you use the means of electronic warfare / electronic warfare and a lot of false targets, then this task becomes completely ... difficult to solve. In addition, the means of attack are improved much faster than the means of defense, and always appear late. wink China will have a clear advantage in this matter.
                But most importantly - WHAT is it to dare to attack the Nuclear Superpower that China will become in 5-10 years? Do the Japanese really want to kill themselves? I am simply silent about Yu.Koreitsev, they and the brothers from the North have troubles and fears behind their backs.
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                nuclear strikes against China even without the participation of the United States in 10-15 years can be costly.

                I think it will happen much sooner. And do not forget that Japan is VERY vulnerable to nuclear strikes ... This addiction is simply FATAL.
                And to die in order for the United States to be able to restart its economy and become able to resist China in the future ... the Japanese are unlikely to want to. They are trying to deceive them, to suggest that China will not use nuclear weapons ... I think China will disappoint them very much.
                They still need to get even with Japan for the 20th century.
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                And with the participation of the United States, this is death for China, because the processing of coastal regions by the US nuclear arsenal for China means the destruction of everything in general.

                Of course, this will be a terrible loss ... But the United States will not remain unanswered either. If this happens in the coming years, then China will be able to inflict very serious damage on the United States ... And Russia will simply finish them off. Yes bully Well, do not leave the same crazy wounded animal? stop
                And that’s it. Yes The end of the hegemon will be terrible and final.
                If the United States wants to do this ... in 7-10 years, then China alone will roll them into trash and complete oblivion with its arsenal.
                And then the fate of the US allies will be request completely unenviable.
                You can't be so reckless with the nuclear powers.
                And the Anglo-Saxons need to restrain their own diarrhea from fear and despair. And get used to life in new conditions.
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                So, will China withstand further militarization?

                What's wrong with Chinese militarization? belay
                Having a REAL sector of the economy several times higher than in the United States, and the military budget itself is several times less than the American one ... China is still VERY FAR to overstrain.
                And do not forget that the CCP has power in China and there is a planned economy.
                Overheating of the construction sector in China out of a desire to create as many jobs as possible ... They have gotten to the point that entire cities that they have built over the past 10 years are now being demolished and are going to build new ones - all for the sake of employment and the formation of domestic solvent demand . lol Well, they will transfer some of these workers to the defense industry sector, they will build a little less (and they don’t need so much already), but they will produce more weapons ... and nothing will happen to their economy.
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                Alibaba groups are laying off tens of thousands of people because of problems.

                Well, this is trade ... Consider that the service sector. Some of these dismissed people can even be called up to the Army ... or to the Navy. feel
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                No matter how rich Russia is in resources, Siberia is poorly developed and the transport infrastructure between China and Russia is not yet particularly developed, but pipes are being laid (and thank God) and railways are expanding (finally) but so far this is very, very little.

                lol So now there will be more.
                "Somewhere gone, somewhere arrived
                The Law of Equilibrium works clearly ... "
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                The Chinese market is huge and much of it is fed by the sea.

                If there is a war and a real blockade, we will feed China somehow - just the flows will be redistributed. We will provide both oil and gas, and other resources according to the needs of the Wartime.
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                And I personally doubt very much that the Chinese will be able to hold this sea.

                How do you imagine THAT in general?? belay
                China will be blocked, they will seize and sink ships and warships, bomb cities and industrial areas, and he (China) will ... "smile and bow"? Or just brush off with a "penknife"?
                Remember the experience of WWII, when the United States decided ... not even to block Japan, but JUST REFUSED IT IN OIL!
                Do you remember what happened?
                At Pearl Harbor. bully
                And this was in conditions when Japan did not have nuclear weapons, and its fleet was several times inferior to both the US fleet and the British fleet.
                China HAS Nuclear Weapons.
                And he already has a completely comparable (and numerically superior) Fleet.
                In addition, China is de facto the First Economy of the World, the real sector is already many times superior to the United States.
                Do you yourself understand exactly WHAT you are talking about / writing / discussing?
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                We need to capture Taiwan

                It is better to peacefully return "to your native harbor", but it is also possible by military means if the war becomes inevitable. And she becomes
                Quote from Kamil Fazliev
                and the Strait of Malacca to hold

                Enough squadron.
                1. 0
                  10 August 2023 18: 50
                  About a nuclear war with China. Yes, China can have even more nuclear weapons, and maybe even get them, but you forget that the gentlemen from the opposite camp will not sit and watch. Nuclear weapons are also likely to be acquired by Japan about the weakness for the nucleus, so China also has it, and moreover, China is more vulnerable, the population is also concentrated on the coast and is not only under the threat of a strike from the sea, but also from the depths of China, thanks to such a useful but such a dangerous infrastructure of dams, which in the past have already claimed millions of Chinese lives without any nuclear strikes. In addition, China is much larger than Japan, and they will not be able to protect their entire coast from impact if they do not attract marine pro systems.
                  About our transport infrastructure, in order to provide China, it is necessary to build up all of Siberia with pieces of iron and pipes in order to drive the resources China needs there, we don’t even close the third of their needs. So in the event of a naval blockade of Russia, it is not possible to cover all the needs of China in either fuel or other resources, the infrastructure is at least weak for this. About the planned economy, this is of course cool, but it hasn’t been there for a long time, half of the top of the CCP is the oligarchs, the other is bureaucracy and the military. The plan is only in the military sphere. Well, yes, Alibaba is a large corporation, the second in China, to be more precise, and these are such jokes from it as a very bright marker. China as a whole is now overheated and bloated, its transport infrastructure (high-speed railway network) is pulling companies and entire districts to the bottom because of its unprofitability, and the Chinese cannot stop the construction of these roads, otherwise severe losses will begin for everyone who provides construction and builds these roads, the same with the construction sector as a whole. The Chinese cannot stop this assembly line otherwise half of the Chinese economy will collapse. For example, 2 years ago, the total debt of Chinese railways was 6 trillion yuan, or 5-6% of the country's GDP. And this pyramid continues to grow as the Chinese railways continue to borrow money and build more and more unprofitable roads. It's the same with developers. The crisis of developers has been going on for 2 years, but the party does not stop construction, because otherwise the factories providing this construction will stop, banks will not receive profits and the economy will go down. That is why I am not sure that China will be able to pull out a strong militarization, because although its real sector is larger, it is not optimized, part of it works just to work and sometimes work on credit. The other part is focused exclusively on imports and is not particularly connected with other enterprises or even regions of China. So yes, maybe everything looks impressive on the figures, but it may turn out that in reality, in the event of a conflict, all these impressive volumes will simply collapse. China is not the USSR, not a country sharpened for self-sufficiency. Well, yes, of course, China will kick in a conflict, maybe even hit with its nuclear arsenal, but a strike with a nuclear arsenal for China means death, just like for Japan or the United States, but at sea, having, yes, sort of like an even more numerous fleet, but surrounded by many bases, fortified islands, outposts of his enemies, Kitab will have to pull apart his forces, and then it’s far from a fact that there will be enough Chinese. Their shipbuilders are not yet famous for the quality of their ships, their merchant fleet (the second in the world) mainly consists of old ships, and China still produces new powerful tankers and other things in small quantities due to the lack and severe lack of equipment and personnel. So where should these same people and equipment in the military sphere come from? In general, there are too many nuances and says that China will crush the entire region and half of the planet that turned out against it is somehow ... strange.
            2. +1
              8 August 2023 15: 03
              Fizkult hello to representatives of an extinct civilization (I'm talking about the Soviet people) hi
              What are China's vulnerabilities?
              1. Orientation of the economy to export - within the country there is no possibility to consume everything produced.
              2. Maritime trade, including on the islands - under the control of the Chinese! But the percentage of Chinese on these islands is extremely small. And few people like their dominance.
              3. The population is predominantly concentrated on the coast in large metropolitan areas. The presence of dams in key areas of the country - strategically vulnerable objects
              4. There is no possibility to fully cover the needs of the population of the PRC in food supply on its own, in energy, oil, etc.
              What is the conclusion from this?
              China will not take out a classic trade and economic war. If he was imposed with the same sanctions as the Russian Federation is now, then for what period of time would they be enough?
              Moreover, the Anglo-Saxons do not need to fight a real war with them. For this, there is India (which has so far answered "A firm no"), as well as other large countries of Southeast Asia.
              Trade is taken under control (and primarily on the key islands) - by organizing coups and introducing AUCUS fleets. Straits and channels and so on under the AUCUS. Trade is closed. Resource supplies overlap.
              What should China do? My answer: Like Imperial Japan.
              Only the PRC will have to attack the closest circle of countries (except for the Russian Federation) and so - because markets for the products of previous technological paradigms are needed.

              Quote: bayard
              China has quite a few anti-ship missiles, incl. and ballistic.
              And do not forget the main thing - China, this is a nuclear power, which right now is making a powerful breakthrough from the second division to the Major League of nuclear powers - in the next 10 years, China will equate its strategic nuclear forces with the strategic nuclear forces of the United States and Russia.

              How reliable are these data?
              There is another opinion - with the same degree of certainty: as a result of a series of earthquakes (Xinjiang), the PRC completely destroyed centrifuges and part of its nuclear arsenal.
              Therefore, NATA now has the last battle (I wrote to you earlier - but apparently you did not see it). And the enemy was determined by them absolutely correctly - what they sharpened for - they are used for that, no matter how sad it may be.
              1. +1
                8 August 2023 18: 27
                Quote: Stena
                Fizkult hello to representatives of an extinct civilization (I'm talking about the Soviet people)

                And you do not have to be ill . hi
                Quote: Stena
                What are China's vulnerabilities?
                1. Orientation of the economy to export - within the country there is no possibility to consume everything produced.

                This is a common truth, but China is now trying to reorient itself towards the countries of Asia, Africa and Latin America.
                Quote: Stena
                2. Maritime trade, including on the islands - under the control of the Chinese! But the percentage of Chinese on these islands is extremely small. And few people like their dominance.

                This is also known, but will these countries be ready to die for this?
                Quote: Stena
                3. The population is predominantly concentrated on the coast in large metropolitan areas. The presence of dams in key areas of the country - strategically vulnerable objects

                It is also a well-known truth, but China has long believed that in order to survive in a nuclear war, it is enough for them to save about 200-300 million of the most valuable population, and they already have underground cities for this. And we built the early warning system for them, and we will insure our own, while friends.
                Quote: Stena
                4. There is no possibility to fully cover the needs of the population of the PRC in food supply on its own, in energy, oil, etc.

                In wartime, such needs are sharply reduced, and besides, they have considerable strategic reserves. Yes, and Russia, these - China's military needs for food and oil, will be able to satisfy in many ways. Let's just redirect the flows to China.
                Quote: Stena
                What is the conclusion from this?
                China will not take out a classic trade and economic war.

                Until the entire capitalist West even takes it out against Russia, what can we say about China? They then generally have a lot of things just get up. And the fact that they are now hastily replacing imports ... to replace for a few more years. Do the West have them?
                For several more years, the United States planned a war in the Asia-Pacific region for 2031-2035. , but already last year they realized that it was necessary to start no later than 2027.
                And this year it became clear that we must start no later than 2025, otherwise the train will leave. Do you understand how nervous they feel right now?

                Quote: Stena
                Moreover, the Anglo-Saxons do not need to fight a real war with them. For this, there is India (which has so far answered "A firm no"), as well as other large countries of Southeast Asia.

                Do you think that after thinking, India will still say "yes"?
                And they will climb through the Himalayas?
                Or will other countries of the Asia-Pacific region lose their minds so much that they will go against the PRC with choppers and pitchforks?
                Quote: Stena
                Trade is taken under control (and primarily on the key islands) - by organizing coups and introducing AUCUS fleets.

                I asked the interlocutor with a comment above, I’ll ask you too - how do you imagine this blockade? AUKUS fleets will sink and capture PRC merchant ships? And if the operational squadron of the PLA Fleet gets into the straits on both sides? She, too - to drown?
                Yes, they simply organize military escort of their ships and will drive them in caravans.
                Or is it War?
                Or do you think that this will be a war according to the "rules" drawn up by the Anglo-Saxons? What if China plays by its own rules?
                You should not count on the fleets of Japan and South Korea so much. Of course, they are quite strong and modern, but these states are VERY vulnerable. Like the American bases on them.
                Like all US bases in the region.
                It's just that in one day all these bases will not be. And what will their fleets do? From which only tears in the open sea will remain?
                Nuclear exchange?
                Pirate terror?
                China now has no less money than the United States, and the Real Sector of the Economy is already many times larger than the American one. And the entire (!) huge fleet of the PRC is assembled into a single fist off its own shores and in the South China Sea.
                Quote: Stena
                What should China do? My answer: Like Imperial Japan.

                No. Not necessarily.
                Japan started the war because the United States refused to supply them with oil, and they simply had nowhere else to take it. At the same time, they were ALREADY at war in China and with England. smile And the Japanese fleet was still several times LESS than the US fleet and the British fleet.
                But China is different. This is the First Economy of the World in the real sector and it has the largest fleet in the world. And although it is still inferior in quality to the US fleet, it is assembled into one fist just in the area of ​​\uXNUMXb\uXNUMXbfuture very likely military operations.
                And they have the largest Merchant Fleet.
                And yet - they do not receive oil from the United States. Oil comes to them from the Persian Gulf, from Africa, Venezuela and Russia.
                Quote: Stena
                India

                For India, there is Pakistan. With the support of China, it will be enough for India, by the way.
                Quote: Stena
                How reliable are these data?
                There is another opinion - with the same degree of certainty: as a result of a series of earthquakes (Xinjiang), the PRC completely destroyed centrifuges and part of its nuclear arsenal.

                It's unfortunate if that's the case. But this will only bring China and the Russian Federation even MORE ... and it looks like we are seeing exactly that. Our nuclear umbrella and resources + the Chinese Economy ... they can do wonders.
                Quote: Stena
                Therefore, NATA now has the last battle (I wrote to you earlier - but apparently you did not see it).

                It is very inconvenient to "live without a bell" request , really did not see and did not read .
                Quote: Stena
                And the enemy was determined by them absolutely correctly - what they sharpened for - they are used for that, no matter how sad it may be.

                And this is also very ... noticeable lately.
                But after all, if by some cunning "miracle" they manage to topple the Russian Federation, then China will definitely get krants. And they understand it very well there. So the visit of one Tuvan to North Korea made a lot of noise.
                If Chinese centrifuges really suffered, then Korean ones work. Yes And Russians. bully
                So uranium from Niger arrived at our collective farm, while the fascists in France and the USA lost it. Here are joint naval exercises with the PRC ... used and EU fascists were denied drones and their components ... but we have the opposite - an ABUNDANCE of this good has been drawn ...
                But this fall and next year will be "fun".
                If the comprador oligarchy did not cling to the tops, they would have won long ago.
                Which means we win anyway.
                hi
                1. +1
                  9 August 2023 00: 14
                  Quote: bayard
                  Yes, and Russia, these - China's military needs for food and oil, will be able to satisfy in many ways. Let's just redirect the flows to China.

                  Of course he can. That's just the question - why? Both the United States and China are trying to become (hold) the world leaders. At the same time, the United States has a desire to grab other people's resources and hold them. And then - to distribute, creating a world government. And the PRC has a desire to seize sales markets and hold them. Also creating a world government, but already under his leadership. None of them wants to live simply and calmly - give world domination to everyone.
                  Quote: bayard
                  Until the entire capitalist West even takes it out against Russia, what can we say about China? They then generally have a lot of things just get up. And the fact that they are now hastily replacing imports ... to replace for a few more years. Do the West have them?
                  For several more years, the United States planned a war in the Asia-Pacific region for 2031-2035. , but already last year they realized that it was necessary to start no later than 2027.
                  And this year it became clear that we must start no later than 2025, otherwise the train will leave.

                  NATO's task in the Eastern Strategic Direction is a war in the European theater of operations in 2025 - 2027. And after the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the war, the capture of the rest of the world, including the PRC.
                  But if they don’t export it from the Russian Federation, then everything else is an unsolvable task, especially within the time frame you specified.
                  Moreover, by blocking the sales markets for goods from the PRC, in the short term this pushes China to try to "conquer" such markets, and it is desirable that the level of production in the market countries be lower than the PRC (that is, for example, Japan or South Korea are not fit).
                  Quote: bayard
                  This is also known, but will these countries be ready to die for this?

                  An analogy is the war of Great Britain in the First and Second World Wars (recruitment and training in the colonies, sending to the front). The question of price (you can promise a golden roller coaster), motivation (hello psychotropics and drugs) and control capabilities (their main principle is divide and conquer).
                  Quote: bayard
                  Yes, they simply organize military escort of their ships and will drive them in caravans.

                  It's about something else. The overthrow of the Chinese elite in the Asia-Pacific countries and their replacement with "democratically" correct ones. There is formally no reason for the PRC to support this "top" - for those who trade on the islands are Chinese outcasts (who fled after Mao Zedong came to power). There is no need to heat anything - but the closure of markets in the EU, the USA and the satellite countries of the Anglo-Saxons makes the export of PRC products not very desirable.
                  Quote: bayard
                  And yet - they do not receive oil from the United States. Oil comes to them from the Persian Gulf, from Africa, Venezuela and Russia.

                  Right. As it is true that it is not like in the Russian Federation - everything is its own. Therefore, here the question of price rises to its full height.
                  Quote: bayard
                  Our nuclear umbrella and resources + the Chinese Economy ... they can do wonders.

                  We don't need the Chinese economy. Need your own. And your own market.
                  Quote: bayard
                  But after all, if by some cunning "miracle" they manage to topple the Russian Federation, then China will definitely get krants. And they understand it very well there. So the visit of one Tuvan to North Korea made a lot of noise.

                  It won't work. If we don't give up.
                  Quote: bayard
                  So uranium from Niger arrived at our collective farm, while the fascists in France and the USA lost it.

                  It's already open - a world war. And they will definitely climb to turn everything back.
                  Moreover, the French, again, it would be wiser to agree. But apparently, until they rake it to the fullest, they will not understand.
                  Quote: bayard
                  If the comprador oligarchy did not cling to the tops, they would have won long ago.
                  Which means we win anyway.

                  Agree! There will be a holiday on our street!
                  hi
                  1. +1
                    9 August 2023 02: 48
                    Quote: Stena
                    That's just the question - why? Both the United States and China are trying to become (hold) the world leaders. At the same time, the United States has a desire to grab other people's resources and hold them. And then - to distribute, creating a world government. And the PRC has a desire to seize sales markets and hold them. Also creating a world government, but already under his leadership. None of them wants to live simply and calmly - give world domination to everyone.

                    Well, that's to help the guys get down to business - the struggle for leadership by force of arms. Is it in our interests for China to turn sour right away? And you can support exactly as much as they supported and continue to support us. For the struggle between the sickly old Eagle and the Young but clumsy Panda... must go on.
                    Quote: Stena
                    NATO's task in the Eastern Strategic Direction is a war in the European theater of operations in 2025 - 2027. And after the withdrawal of the Russian Federation from the war, the capture of the rest of the world, including the PRC.

                    Ambitious, and all the preparations of the last 10 years testify to this ... But will NATO take out the fight against the Nuclear Superpower? After all, if you don’t play according to their invented “rules”, but simply overturning the chessboard and hitting the cheaters on the kumpol with it, then everything will sparkle with completely different colors.
                    For example, a super-volcano northwest of the British Isles may explode. request Natural element, who knew that this would happen?
                    Or wake up Yellowstone and add a series of tidal waves from both coasts. Just initiate something that has been lying in its place for a long time and waiting ... After all, it's just how it is. bully And you don’t even have to spend rockets.
                    Just decide that we now set the rules.
                    request And that’s it. bully
                    Quote: Stena
                    But if they don’t export it from the Russian Federation, then everything else is an unsolvable task, especially within the time frame you specified.

                    They are in a hurry. They even planned a series of nuclear strikes ... against Rostov, for example ... In vain.
                    When I KNOW that you know that I KNOW... The future becomes SO variable... winked
                    Quote: Stena
                    Moreover, by blocking the sales markets for goods from the PRC, in the short term, this pushes China to try to "conquer" such markets, and it is desirable that the level of production in the market countries be lower than the PRC.

                    Yes, please - all of Latin America, part of Africa, part of Asia ... and their own up to 1,5 billion people. In my opinion, not so much, so as not to "die of hunger".
                    Quote: Stena
                    (that is, for example - Japan or South Korea will not work here).

                    Well, on the one hand, in the event of a real war, these two countries fall under the distribution first, and what level of production and living they will have after all this is still a big question. In addition, without many critical materials (the same rare earths), their innovative Economy can seriously die out even without a war. And with the war ... They need to resist and get out, evading the coalition with the USA and England, until the very last opportunity.
                    Quote: Stena
                    An analogy is the war of Great Britain in the First and Second World Wars (recruitment and training in the colonies, sending to the front). The question of price (you can promise a golden roller coaster), motivation (hello psychotropics and drugs) and control capabilities (their main principle is divide and conquer).

                    France and the United States are also trying to act on foreign territories, but this is still not for the Great War. This is for war by their rules. And I'm not sure that the Russian Federation and China even want to KNOW these rules.
                    China, too, can begin to bribe the elite, take control of its own diasporas (and not only in the Asia-Pacific region) and finance coup d'état.
                    For example - in the USA. feel Everything has been boiling there since the last elections ... there are not enough matches. And in England (it’s more difficult there and you need to work thinner, but ... who said that they don’t work on this anymore?
                    Europe will burn itself.
                    Well, we'll throw in TNT for brightness.
                    As with us, so with them.
                    Quote: Stena
                    There is no need to heat anything - but the closure of markets in the EU, the USA and the satellite countries of the Anglo-Saxons makes the export of PRC products not very desirable.

                    Do you have any idea WHAT will happen in the USA, EU and England without Chinese goods? How will prices skyrocket and shortages rise?
                    And this is social explosions, when the boiler is about to explode anyway.
                    Well, China will partly reduce, partly rebuild its production and sales markets (after all, markets can be developed, and not just captured), and the surplus of the unemployed will be transferred to the defense industry and drafted into the Army. soldier
                    Fight, fight like that.
                    If you plan correctly, then you can kick the USA and Co. out of Southeast Asia and Oceania quite quickly - as Japan did with the British presence. Well, then request War in the Pacific. In Indian? ... Does India need it? Or is it easier to negotiate? You look and you won’t have to mess with Pakistan. There are A LOT of intrigue and surprises that can happen.
                    But if the US does not deal with China for another year or two, it will definitely be too late.
                    And they , as it is not surprising , are going to deal with ... Russia in the Northern Black Sea region . laughing fool The Chinese will simply squeal with happiness.
                    And then they will definitely not have a chance of success.
                    And it was necessary to negotiate with Russia EARLIER ... Now the claw is already bogged down ... the whole Bird is an abyss ... even if this bird is old, sick and fallen into insanity ... Eagle.
                  2. +1
                    9 August 2023 03: 25
                    Quote: Stena
                    Quote: bayard
                    And yet - they do not receive oil from the United States. Oil comes to them from the Persian Gulf, from Africa, Venezuela and Russia.

                    Right. As it is true that it is not like in the Russian Federation - everything is its own. Therefore, here the question of price rises to its full height.

                    fellow IN THE PRICE? bully The price is GOOD. In war, prices always rise. And resources become scarce...
                    I'm FOR good prices and against bad buyers. I am sure that in the conditions of blockade or even war, China will be a Good Buyer.
                    Quote: Stena
                    We don't need the Chinese economy. Need your own. And your own market.

                    Yes That's right, the economy is needed - its own.
                    What do you need for your economy? For her to show up?
                    That's right - Industrialization.
                    After the pogrom of the liberal anarchists, we have neither our own machine tool building, nor Heavy Machine Building by way, nor Electronics, nor Electrical Engineering, nor Light Industry, nor Food ... wink Here the role of the USA and Germany of the 30s of the last century will be just right for China. wink Resources - for Industrialization. And so as in the 30s. And how from Germany for reparations after the war (an old employee of the State Planning Commission told HOW MUCH and what kind of turnkey plants Germany supplied us.
                    And the question is not, as a result of which, but at WHAT RATES AND VOLUME.
                    If we now abruptly ... just do not rapidly grow stronger, it could end very badly for China. So all restrictions must be lifted, any sensitive positions and the nomenclature should be transferred to the shadow (not public) circulation, and most importantly, China CAM must take the initiative in the speedy industrialization of Russia. Then both we and they will stand. And we need to marginally - at least for the Five-Year Plan to double our industrial potential. and doubling it is the Minimum Task.
                    And you know... supplying this volume and at this rate is a hell of a lucrative and fun business. And it allows, albeit partially, to compensate for the loss of some other markets.
                    There is no need to be afraid of competition - the size of our economies is already incomparable, as is the population. It is precisely because of the population limit that we are serious competitors (in terms of consumer goods, which is what the Chinese economy is based on) China will not become ... But we will help each other out in difficult times.
                    How the USSR in the 30s pulled out of the deepest depression of the US and German economies with its orders, buying up almost all the technical equipment, machine tools, and technologies that were then produced in the world. 90% of the world production of machine tools and equipment was then bought by the USSR.
                    And THREE Economic Miracles were revealed to the world at once - the Industrialization of the USSR, the restoration and rapid growth of Germany, and the recovery of the US economy after the Great Depression ... SO that this economy took out the entire WWII with supplies ... to all the warring parties, and amounted to 1945 an incredible 50% of world GDP.
                    So China has a chance to try to repeat the US trick of the 30s. And it would be nice if such an initiative came from China.
                    Quote: Stena
                    If we don't give up.

                    This is the physical suicide of the entire elite of the Russian Federation. Still no one will be left alive. Even the most trusted - there will be no need. This is a struggle for survival, and they WANT to live.
                    Quote: Stena
                    It's already open - a world war. And they will definitely climb to turn everything back.

                    But is it really bad if the frogs still climb into Africa on their wheeled tanks and rake in full? This will be applauded even in the USA. Under the current conditions, this is unlikely to be a cakewalk. It's still Central Africa. There are evil crocodiles. And Wagner music plays. I'm afraid of France, after she gets in there, her beloved migrants will simply tear to shreds.
                    Quote: Stena
                    the French, again, it would be wiser to agree. But apparently, until they rake it to the fullest, they will not understand.

                    There seems to be just no one to negotiate. The elites are not just smart ... just prudent left. Once they have chosen such a fate for themselves - long live the new barbarians of Europe.
                    Quote: Stena
                    There will be a holiday on our street!

                    Necessarily will .
                    hi
    2. +3
      7 August 2023 09: 18
      Agree. Do not give, it was necessary 20 years ago, now it's "too late to drink Borjomi")))
  3. 0
    7 August 2023 06: 22
    For diesel pl to the French. Haven't tried? Only Korea and Yapi.
  4. +3
    7 August 2023 06: 35
    For the defense of its coast - good.
    1. 0
      7 August 2023 12: 36
      Agree
      For the defense of its coast - good.

      The apotheosis of German submariners - March 1943. Further, the base patrol aviation blocked the ocean, and the game began with one goal.
      If we are talking about the South China Sea, then the issue is debatable ...
      I did not understand the author, why are the apl "clumsy"?
  5. +2
    7 August 2023 08: 04
    It is also quite realistic to order non-nuclear submarines in Germany, at least of the same type that they are building for Israel. They are diesel in price and size, but VNEU and the ability to launch missiles underwater through torpedo tubes give them some of the capabilities of strategic nuclear submarines. The Germans build quickly and efficiently.
    1. -2
      7 August 2023 10: 12
      https://www.thedrive.com/the-war-zone/new-israeli-submarines-big-sail-seen-in-images После оригиналов на немецком и иврите The Drive отметились первыми. INS "Drakon" как переходная модель к строящимся Dakar... VMPL за ограждением рубки, для КР или баллистики, прикрыт. Длинный "парус" в соответствии с концепцией Common design видимо для много чего. Примерно 73 м. 2550-2600 т. под водой.
  6. -1
    7 August 2023 08: 09
    The article is relevant, and our fleet needs diving corvettes with normal weapons, air defense, anti-aircraft defense, artillery, AK-630 hypersonic and radar drones, it can be done on the basis of Varshavyanka, you just need to put a turbine instead of a diesel soldier
    1. +1
      7 August 2023 09: 07
      You can’t even put this on a nuclear submarine, although there is a turbine and a reactor)
  7. +2
    7 August 2023 08: 40
    In short, from the whole text, I realized that the amers urgently need diesel-electric submarines, since their nuclear submarines are closely in the South China Sea
  8. -1
    7 August 2023 09: 06
    And why Orca didn’t suit them, I still don’t understand .. Make a hundred of such boats and a golden key in your pocket
  9. +1
    7 August 2023 09: 15
    The possibilities of mattress shipbuilding are already clear - they simply "can't pull" the program of 355 ships. A couple of days ago I "embossed" an article, here, five destroyers, including the ancestor - "Bjerka", are extending their service life. Two aircraft carriers, two ticks, two islands. Of the 49 MAPLs on the "list", 31 are in service. 18 are under repairs, of varying duration, some for more than six years. The idea of ​​diesel-electric submarines is perhaps rational, but will mattress corporations want to give the money of mattress taxpayers somewhere to the side?)))
  10. +2
    7 August 2023 10: 29
    Some strange choice in favor of diesel submarines, because the most modern models have an air-independent engine. Nuclear submarines are much quieter and stay under water much longer than diesel ones.
    1. 0
      7 August 2023 16: 36
      Quote from Escariot
      Some strange choice in favor of diesel submarines,

      Cheaper means you can build more, a consumable, a calculation for one volley, as well as a calculation for fear, which provides a pennant, a flag. But the United States is mistaken in counting on these measures, that is, flexing their muscles, to solve the problem.
      1. -1
        7 August 2023 20: 20
        The fact is that submarines with VNEU will at least make this salvo, while diesel ones have problems with this.
  11. +2
    7 August 2023 11: 32
    An underwater drone with the function of a minelayer is what the Russian fleet needs (problems of the Baltic, etc.).
  12. +2
    7 August 2023 15: 57
    Interesting article. I read it with pleasure. And here is what can be said about this.
    1. "Sherlock" (who in the article under the nickname Holmes is an artilleryman, albeit a great scientist!) Looks at the problem one-sidedly. Yes, it may be that NNSs for sailing in the South Sea Sea are more preferable, but this does not mean that the Yankee military-industrial complex will do this (it takes a long time to develop, master and gain operating experience) in fact a new class of submarines. And, secondly, they will strangle everyone (and strangle themselves!) but will not give such a piece of the pie to anyone!
    2. About the maintenance and repair at the shipyards of Japan or the South Caucasus region. They will not agree to this, because again, money needs to be driven to the side ... The capitalist will not agree to this, and the lobby will not allow it.
    3. China has already (!) included these islands in the first line of defense of the PRC against encroachments from the sea. And he will defend them with all the determination of a superpower, using missiles (missiles of the DF-17,21D type ...), aircraft from the AVR GZ, and other tsatski, of which, I believe, he has enough. In doing so, he neutralizes most of the NK coalition, including the Yankee AVU. The PLA Navy also has nuclear submarines, such as type 039A (and most likely already 039B / C), which will compete with Soryu (Taigei) and KSS-III ...
    4. China entrenched itself on the "islands". This is true. But the main task for him now is Taiwan. This is where the tip of the spear will be directed. The states are well aware of this, so they are unlikely to disperse their forces. And the "transition" to nuclear submarines far from the metropolis is not only difficulties with logistics, but also huge financial costs for the maintenance of the submarines' and submariners' basing system.
    And the last. Roman nevertheless "cast a bullet" by inventing "SURFACE" defense. And all we were talking about was the ANTI-SHIP component. Because, if we strictly approach the term newly introduced by the author, then "surface defense" should include: air defense, air defense, missile defense, that is, all enemy forces that are "above the water"!
    Somehow, however. AHA. hi
  13. 0
    7 August 2023 16: 29
    And here the American generally says sedition: if the United States does not have its own (and where should they come from, America has not been building its diesel-electric submarines for a long time) capacities and projects, why not order boats on the side? For example, the same allies of the Japanese.

    The plan for the purchase of diesel-electric submarines from the allies is not bad. But only the US will never go for it. There is a lot of money involved here. And it is the large American arms companies (I would also include the related industry here) that dictate policy. Here you can launder huge budgets. And the purchase of foreign diesel-electric submarines requires not only payment for construction, but also training, and repairs, and in some cases, weapons for the "allies" are also possible.
  14. exo
    0
    7 August 2023 18: 02
    Most likely, they will take the project of one of the allies. Adapt to your needs and move forward. They will build on their own. I'm sure they'll find resources. What happened to the FFG(X) frigates. They took the project from Fincantieri. Together with them they reworked and will build.
    1. 0
      7 August 2023 20: 01
      Quote: exo
      Most likely, they will take the project of one of the allies

      Yes, they will definitely not do double-hull.
  15. 0
    7 August 2023 20: 48
    Thank you!
    It is possible that there are technical errors, but I am very interested.
  16. 0
    8 August 2023 12: 56
    Diesel, this is compactness. Little noise. But the duration of the campaign is less than atomic. Nuclear, large, expensive, noisy. But the campaign is limited by provisions. There are pros and cons. Diesel should not be written off as something backward. It is quite necessary. Combat-ready.
  17. 0
    8 August 2023 19: 09
    Then you will have to solve problems with basing and support due to the relatively small radius of action. Perhaps it is easier to entrust this to a multi-purpose nuclear submarine with a displacement of up to 5 - 6 thousand tons, such as the French Barracuda.