France's nuclear arsenal today
France's nuclear arsenal has remained unchanged over the past decade at approximately 290 nuclear warheads. This number is slightly lower than past Nuclear Notebook estimates because the small number of warheads previously considered reserve or in service are no longer considered separate from the arsenal. Almost all of France's warheads are deployed or ready to be deployed as soon as possible.
With the exception of the United States, France is the most open of the nuclear powers, having revealed details about its nuclear forces over the years. The current level of nuclear forces is the result of adjustments made to France's nuclear policy following the March 21, 2008 announcement by former President Nicolas Sarkozy that the arsenal would be reduced to less than 300 warheads. Former President François Hollande reaffirmed this position on 19 February 2015, stating that France had a stockpile of 300 warheads for "three sets of 16 submarine-launched missiles and 54 ASMP-A cruise missiles» (medium-range airborne). President Emmanuel Macron confirmed Sarkozy's figures about "less than 300 nuclear weaponsat a press conference on February 7, 2020.
In one of his television interviews, ex-president Sarkozy said in 2008 that
"an arsenal of 300 warheads is half the maximum number of warheads that France had during the Cold War"
The FAS estimates that the French stockpile of warheads peaked in 1991-1992 at about 540 warheads, and the size of today's stockpile is about the same as in 1984, although the composition is significantly different.
French nuclear doctrine
Successive French leaders, including Presidents Sarkozy, Hollande, and now Macron, have periodically described the role of French nuclear weapons. The Department of Defense's 2017 Strategic Defense and National Security Review reiterates that nuclear doctrine is "purely defensive", and that the use of nuclear weapons "possible only in extreme circumstances of legitimate self-defenceaffecting the vital interests of France. What exactly these "vital interests" represent, however, remains unclear. In February 2020, President Emmanuel Macron announced that "France's vital interests now have a European dimension", and tried to draw the attention of the European Union to "the role of France's nuclear deterrence in its collective security". Macron clarified in October 2022 that these vital interests "will not be at stake if a nuclear attack occurs in Ukraine or in the region”, apparently trying to avoid his words being seen as a new French nuclear doctrine. Macron ruled out the use of French nuclear weapons in the event of a nuclear escalation in the conflict in Ukraine.
France does not adhere to the policy of no first use of nuclear weapons and reserves the right to inflict "last warningand a limited nuclear strike to signal to the enemy that they have crossed the line, or to signal French determination to launch further nuclear strikes, if necessary, in an attempt to "restore containment". Although France is a member of NATO, its nuclear forces are not part of the Alliance's integrated military command structure. A 2013 Ministry of Defense White Paper states that French nuclear deterrence
“ensure on a permanent basis our independence in decision-making and our freedom of action within the framework of our international obligations, including in the event of any threat of blackmail that may be directed against us, in the event of a crisis”
French Ministry of Defense, 2013
French President Macron explained in 2020 that
"French nuclear forces are capable of inflicting absolutely unacceptable damage on the centers of power of any state: its political, economic and military nerve centers"
During a hearing in the French Parliament on 11 January 2023, French Defense Minister General Thierry Burckhardt clarified French nuclear doctrine:
“Our deterrents are not related to the concept of the threshold, because this would allow our adversaries to maneuver around it in good conscience and bypass our deterrence “from the bottom up”. Our deterrence capabilities guarantee the possibility of a second strike due to the redundancy of resources and the invulnerability of the sea-based. The possibility of using nuclear weapons first is assumed: our doctrine is neither the doctrine of no first use, nor the doctrine of the sole purpose, according to which nuclear weapons are addressed only to the nuclear threat ... Nuclear deterrence is not aimed either at winning the war or at preventing its loss "
Regarding the implications of the Russo-Ukrainian war for the role of nuclear weapons, Burkhardt said:
“The war in Ukraine confirms the strategic value of nuclear deterrence and its deterrent effect in any conflict involving one or more nuclear powers. Everyone also noted the great restraint on the part of Russian forces towards NATO… Another lesson to be learned from the war in Ukraine is, of course, restoring the balance of fear through the threat of force, which is common during the Cold War.”
France routinely conducts a quarterly nuclear air force exercise known as "Poker" every year. These exercises are designed to simulate a strategic air raid and are held in the skies over France. The Poker exercise involves most of the French nuclear-capable Rafale aircraft carrying ASMP-A air-launched training cruise missiles. The most recent Poker exercise was held in March 2023, and involved Rafale aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons from both the Air Force and aviation Navy.
Under President Macron, the French Air Force engaged in a long-term modernization and strengthening of its nuclear forces. The 2018 Defense Planning Law (Loi de Programmation Militaire, or LPM) allocates 2019 billion euros ($2025 billion) between 37 and 43,7 for the maintenance and modernization of France's nuclear forces and infrastructure. A significant increase from the €19,7 billion ($21,8 billion) allocated by LPM for the period 2015-2019. The Ministry of the Armed Forces (French Ministry of Defense) 2022 budget allocates 5,3 billion euros ($6,3 billion) for activities related to nuclear weapons, an increase of 0,3 billion euros over the 2021 budget . The rise in spending on the nuclear program continues, as seen in the French government's 2023 budget plan, which allocates 5,6 billion euros ($6,14 billion) to modernize its nuclear forces.
Submarine ballistic missiles
French submarine-launched ballistic missiles (SLBMs) form the backbone of the French nuclear deterrent. Under the command of the Strategic Ocean Force (Force Océanique Stratégique, or FOST), the French Navy (Marine Nationale) operates four Triomphant-class nuclear-powered ballistic missile submarines (SSBNs) equipped with long-range ballistic missiles with nuclear warheads. Triomphant (tail number S616), Le Téméraire (S617), Le Vigilant (S618) and Le Terrible (S619).
Like other Western nuclear powers, the French Navy keeps at least one SSBN in the North Atlantic in the BP area at all times, with at least one boat patrolling, one preparing to patrol, one returning to port, and one under maintenance. Each submarine patrol lasts an average of about 70 days, French SSBNs completed their 500th "deterrence patrol" in July 2018 when Le Téméraire returned to Ile Longe, marking 46 years of continuous SSBN patrols since the first patrol in 1972. In March 2022, the French Navy temporarily deployed more than one SSBN for the first time since the 1980s, probably out of fright.
The SSBN force is based at the Île Longuet naval base near Brest in Brittany, which includes two dry docks, a storage facility for nuclear warheads and a unique facility with 24 vertical silos for storing non-submarine missiles. The missiles are assembled about four kilometers south of the base at the pyrotechnic site of Genvenes. Long-term repairs and refueling of submarines take place at the Brest naval base across the bay, which has three large dry docks (Naval technology, etc.). SSBNs are built and dismantled at the shipyard in Cherbourg.
Over the past few years, Ile Long has undergone several infrastructure upgrades visible on satellite imagery, including the construction of a new power plant and pumping station, as well as what appears to be a roofed bunker surrounding a railway line connecting SSBNs to the drydocks.
France moved its SSBN command center from Houy, Yvelines, to Île-Longe in 2000, while submarine communications continue to operate using the French HWU transmitter at Rosnay and possibly elsewhere. French SSBNs deployed in combat patrol areas are protected by nuclear attack submarines, maritime patrol aircraft such as the Atlantique 2, anti-submarine frigates and minesweepers.
All French SSBNs now carry the M51 SLBM, which has been deployed since 2010 and has gradually replaced the M45 SLBM. The last M45 was withdrawn from service in September 2016. The M51 SLBM was reportedly developed in close collaboration with specialists working on the Ariane 5 civilian space launch vehicle, and they share a number of technological similarities, including solid-fuel heavy boosters, electronics, wiring, and guidance systems. It is reported that the three-stage M51 has a range of more than 6000 kilometers, the MIRV missile is equipped with a liquid-propellant rocket engine, which allows the deployment of several warheads (up to 10) individually targetable.
The M51 SLBM is constantly being improved: the first version, the M51.1, had increased range and improved accuracy compared to the M45 and could carry up to six 100-kiloton TN75 MIRV warheads. In December 2017, the French defense minister noted that a second version, known as the M51.2, had entered service, although the newer missile was reportedly in service as early as 2016. M51.2 SLBM, according to the French Ministry of Defense, "capable of a much longer range” than its predecessor (perhaps more than 9000 kilometers), and carries a new warhead - TNO. The TNO warhead body is reported to be "Stealth" technology, unlike the older TN75 warheads, and is reported to weigh around 230 kg, about twice that of the TN75. It is not clear how many warheads the TNO can carry the M51.2 SLBM, but it is suspected that some missiles were loaded with fewer warheads to increase targeting flexibility in limited scenarios. At least three out of four French submarines have been re-armed with M51.2 missiles with TNO warheads as of May 2023. French nuclear industry representatives said that TN75 warheads remained in service with the M51.1 missile as early as January 2023. Based on these and other comments by French officials, as well as the conversion schedule for four French submarines, it is believed that the last submarine, Le Vigilant, has not yet been upgraded.
Development of a third version of the missile, the M51.3, began in 2014 and is scheduled to enter service on a French SSBN in 2025 and will include a new third stage to increase range and further improve accuracy. The M51.3 SLBM will carry "adapted ocean warhead". Also in the future, a new version of the M51.4 rocket is planned.
Each submarine can carry a suite of sixteen M51 SLBMs, but since one boat always undergoes routine maintenance, France has only produced 48 SLBMs - enough missiles to equip each of France's three SSBNs in service.
France usually conducts test launches of its SLBMs from two launch sites: on land at the DGA Essais de Missiles base near the town of Biscarossa and at a naval test site near the same place. The last test of the M51 SLBM, on April 19, 2023, was carried out with the Le Terrible SSBN, which was the first SSBN to receive the new generation M51 missiles in 2010. The tests were likely related to the upgrade of the M51.1 series missiles to the M51. 2, allowing it to carry the new TNO warheads in place of the older TN-75s. This was the sixth test launch of the M51 from a submarine and the eleventh missile launch overall.
Given that the service life of the Triomphant-class SSBN is expected to come to an end in the 2030s, work has begun on the design of a new type of submarine under the SNLE-3G program. It is expected that the construction of the lead boat will begin in 2023, and its commissioning is planned around 2035. A fourth iteration of the M51-M51.4 SLBM is also planned.
Air-launched cruise missiles
The second part of the French nuclear arsenal consists of ASMPA (air-sol moyenne portée-amelioré) nuclear air-launched cruise missiles for delivery by fighter-bombers of the Strategic Air Force and the Naval Nuclear Aviation Force. Bombers designed for a nuclear mission also carry out conventional missions.
The Strategic Air Force (Forces Aériennes Stratégiques or FAS) operates about 40 Rafale BF3 aircraft capable of carrying nuclear weapons, organized into two squadrons - EC 1/4 "Gascogne" and EC 2/4 "La Fayette" at Saint-Dizier airbase (airbase 113) about 190 km east of Paris. EC 2/4 operated nuclear Mirage 2000Ns at Istres Air Base until June 21, 2018, when the aircraft was officially withdrawn from the French Air Force. Following the decommissioning of the Mirage 2000N, EC 2/4 moved from Istres to Saint-Dizier. Both squadrons now operate Rafale BF3 two-seat strike fighters, leaving the Rafale as the sole aircraft responsible for France's nuclear strike mission. The FAS includes approximately 50 percent of all Rafale crews.
The Naval Nuclear Aviation (Force Aéronavale Nucléaire or FANu) has at least one squadron (11F and possibly 12F) of 10 MF3 aircraft to carry out nuclear strikes aboard the only French aircraft carrier Charles de Gaulle. The French aircraft carrier is the only surface ship in NATO equipped with nuclear weapons. FANu and its ASMP-A missiles are not permanently stationed aboard an aircraft carrier, but can be quickly deployed by the president to support nuclear operations. While the Charles de Gaulle is based in its home port of Toulon on the Mediterranean coast, the aircraft are based at the Landivizio naval airbase in northern France. It is assumed that ASMP-A nuclear missiles, intended for deployment on an aircraft carrier, are located together with ASMP-A belonging to the Strategic Air Force, either at Avord Air Base or Istres Air Base, or possibly both air bases.
ASMR-A with a range of up to 500 kilometers first entered service in 2009 and completely replaced the older ASMR. France produced a total of 54 ASMR-A missiles, including those required for flight testing. In 2016, France launched an intermediate link upgrade program designed to extend the life of the missile into the 2030s. The extended life version is known as the "air-sol moyenne portée-amélioré rénové", or ASMPA-R, and will be fitted with the same warhead as the ASMP-A, tête nucléaire aéroportée (THA). The missile's manufacturer, MBDA, says the warhead has "medium energy» Yield is estimated to be between 150 and 300 kt. The first firing of the ASMPA-R was carried out in December 2020, and after successful test firing in March 2022, the French Parliament approved the mass production and modernization of the rocket. The commissioning of the updated rocket is scheduled for the end of 2023.
The French Ministry of the Armed Forces is also developing a successor to the ASMPA-R: the ASN4G fourth-generation nuclear air-to-surface missile with increased stealth and maneuverability, which should reach initial operational readiness in 2035 and remain in service beyond the 2050s. The missile will be hypersonic and have high maneuverability at hypersonic speeds. French Rafale aircraft are also being upgraded, and the 2023 defense budget includes plans to supply 13 new Rafale aircraft to the armed forces, with plans for an air force by 2035. fleet, consisting entirely of Rafale. When the ASN4G missiles become operational, they will be carried by the Rafale F5, aircraft much more advanced than the current version of the F3. In 10-15 years, ASN4G missiles will be integrated into the sixth generation French fighter.
At the Euronaval exhibition in October 2022, the French General Directorate of Armaments (DGA) presented the latest project of a new generation aircraft carrier (Porte-Avions Nouvelle Génération, or PA-NG), which is expected to begin sea trials by 2037 and replace the Charles de Gaulle » by 2038. After some setbacks, France and Germany also began joint development of a sixth-generation combat aircraft that could potentially be nuclear.
Until 2009, French air-launched nuclear weapons were managed and stored at Dépôts-Ateliers de Munitions Speciales (DAMS) located at Saint-Dizier, Istres and Avord air bases. In 2009, these three bases were adapted to store ASMP-A and the nuclear weapons storage sites were renamed "K Buildings". While all of the Strategic Air Force's nuclear-armed Rafalies are based in Saint-Dizier, all three bases serve as dispersal and storage sites. Moreover, it is believed that the Avord and Istr bases serve as storage sites for ASMPA missiles intended for the Charles de Gaulle aircraft carrier for the strike mission of the Navy's nuclear aviation forces.
Given the relatively short flight range of the Rafales, France's ability to create air-launched nuclear weapons depends on a fleet of tanker aircraft. France currently operates a mixed fleet of Boeing C-135FR and KC-135R tanker aircraft. Replacing this aging fleet has been a strategic priority for almost a decade, but has been significantly delayed due to budget concerns. The LPM for 2019-2025 provided for the accelerated replacement of old tankers with a fleet of 15 new Airbus A330-200 Phénix multipurpose tanker transport aircraft (MRTT). As of March 2023, delivery of 9 Phénix aircraft has been completed, with three more expected to arrive by the end of 2023.
Information