US is building a new missile defense site in Europe
GhostEye LTAMDS Radar
Patriot and so on
The United States is building a missile defense positioning area in Poland. The State Department has approved the sale of 48 Patriot M903 launchers, twelve LTAMDS (GhostEye) radars and more than six hundred missiles- Patriot Advanced Capability (PAC) 3 Missile Segment Enhanced (MSE) interceptors. This is one of the modern missiles of the Lockheed Martin concern, which is a universal "golden bullet" for three systems at once - THAAD, Patriot and IBCS. The PAC-3 missile, in particular, successfully hit a high-speed ballistic target during tests in the United States in March last year. Moreover, the missile was fired from the THAAD platform, which significantly increased the target interception range. The Americans have high hopes for the kinetic warhead (hit-to-kill), which, unlike the fragmentation one, more reliably hits missiles of various classes. This is especially true for hypersonic products.
M903 LS launcher with 2 PAC-3 and 4 PAC-3 MSE missile pods
The United States is selling $15 billion worth of anti-missile defense systems to the Poles this year, the second shipment of such equipment to the country. In 2018, a contract was signed for $4,75 billion. Four years later, Warsaw received 16 launchers, four control stations, a dozen repeaters, four radars, and more than two hundred PAC 3 MSE missiles. Thus, after two contracts, 64 launchers and more than eight hundred missiles will appear in Poland. To guarantee the destruction of targets inside Poland, it will be necessary to organize a massive volley of "Caliber", "Daggers" and "Iskanders". With an increase in the number of launchers, the ability to overload missile defense with missile salvos naturally decreases. This will force the Russian leadership to deploy even more missiles in the Kaliningrad region. The arms race in the very heart of Europe is being promoted by the United States with the tacit consent of Poland's neighbors.
It is important that both the previous and new missile defense supplies are integrated into the single IBCS system from Northrop Grumman. The Americans finally brought it to mind only last year. IBCS performs the functions of the system integrator Defense different manufacturers and types – Patriot, NASAMS, THAAD, Sentinel and even onboard radars of F-35 fighters. This allows to reduce the reaction time to a ballistic missile many times and increase accuracy. In fact, NATO is creating in Poland an analogue of the Soviet-Russian echeloned air defense, only now to combat missiles. The first Polish order has already been completed – the 3rd Patriot anti-aircraft missile brigade “Warsaw” in Sochaczew-Bielice has been put on combat duty. The second brigade will appear next year. If we focus on the time lag between the signing of the previous contract and the delivery of equipment, then the appearance of Patriot combat units from the new order is planned no earlier than December 2027. And this process can stretch until 2030. This is in the most optimistic scenario, if Lockheed Martin and Northrop Grumman are not swamped with orders from other countries.
What to expect in the future? First of all, pairing the capabilities of the US-Norwegian NASAMS and Patriot, which significantly increases the ability to repel threats. This naturally shifts the balance of power in favor of the NATO countries. In order not to take advantage of this, you need to have excellent exposure. Does Warsaw have it? The question is rhetorical. If the Poles and the Americans do not stop (or someone does not stop them), then Warsaw will receive THAAD systems to intercept ballistic missiles. Linking the entire line into a single system will create a new level of threats for Russia, significantly weakening the ability to influence the military-political leadership of Poland.
NATO ramming against Russia
The rapid arming of Poland may have several reasons at once. First, the NATO bloc will need a force buffer in front of Russia after the end of the special operation. And it doesn't matter whether Ukraine is fragmented or accepts peace on Russian terms - it will forever remain in the "gray zone". The Kyiv regime can be forgotten about being accepted into the NATO bloc after Vilnius-2023. The role of the buffer is automatically shifted to the west towards Poland. Which, in the event of a war with Russia, should have both the appropriate ground forces and a powerful anti-missile defense. But there is a second scenario that is being seriously considered in NATO cabinets. This is the involvement of Poland in the conflict in Ukraine unilaterally. Otherwise, many things are simply difficult to explain. Why turn a country into the most militarized in Europe if it, like all other NATO members, is protected by the notorious fifth article of the NATO charter? If a buffer is being built against Russia, then it would be nice to extend it to the Baltic States, Romania, Slovakia and Hungary. Otherwise, this is not a defensive belt, but a concentration of forces before an invasion.
Practically devoid of its own military-industrial complex, Poland is forced to purchase from the USA and South Korea
The Poles are now buying weapons like not in myself. With the full support of the United States. Moreover, Poland defiantly distances itself from the rest of Europe. Multibillion-dollar orders go to the Americans and, to a lesser extent, to South Korea. Probably, in the near future there will be information about purchases in Israel, another vassal of Washington. Warsaw is not interested in equipment from Germany, France and the UK. The status of "ram against Russia" automatically gives preferences and even an application for leadership in the region. From the same opera, claims against the Germans, demands for reparations and other hysterical attacks by Warsaw.
The Americans have long bet on supporting the protracted conflict in Ukraine. The calculation for the gradual weakening of Russia, coupled with the build-up of the military power of the Polish army. To count on a military defeat of the Russian army, even from a super-militarized Poland, is, of course, stupid. But the NATO bloc, headed by Washington, hopes very much to shake up the internal political situation in Russia. As soon as internal contradictions spill out into the street, riots begin and the prospect of civil war looms, Poland's finest hour will come. What was Washington most afraid of when the Wagner column was moving towards Moscow? An unpredictable situation with Russian nuclear forces. Who will get the arsenal and how will they use it? Now it is Warsaw that is assigned the role of a strategic force capable of taking advantage of the turmoil and taking control of the Russian nuclear arsenal. For some time, the Poles will operate under the flags of third countries (the same Ukraine), somewhere they will use mercenaries, and somewhere they will hide behind pseudo-peacekeeping motives. Whatever one may say, but apart from the NATO contingent, only the Polish army in the near future can send strike groups to Ukraine, and then to Russia, which is engulfed in hypothetical turmoil. That is why a layered missile defense system is being built, capable of at least partially covering from retaliatory strikes. The strategy is very risky and flawed, but this is the role that Poland is destined for. The battering ram is always the first to grind off in the midst of an assault.
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