Space exploration is fundamentally changing the situation and the rules of the game
In panchromatic mode, the image from the satellite is recorded in the entire visible range of the optical spectrum
Boundless space
Now in near-Earth orbit, you can do whatever you want and anyone. Except for nuclear tests.
The virtual absence of restrictive norms of international law has allowed NATO countries to significantly increase their technological advantage over Russia in near-Earth orbit. The experience of the special operation is another confirmation of this. Only according to the official data of the Ministry of Defense, at least 500 satellites are currently operating in the Armed Forces of Ukraine. This is almost half of the entire foreign constellation of spacecraft in near-Earth space.
The matter is not limited to the areas of hostilities - enemy vehicles are probing the entire territory of Russia. Among the satellites to support the Ukrainian forces are optical-electronic reconnaissance equipment, as well as communication systems, including civilian ones. Earth orbit turned out to be an amazing environment - any, even the most harmless apparatus becomes effective weapons. We are talking about Elon Musk's Starlink constellation, for which Ukrainian nationalists perhaps do not pray.
Of the five hundred NATO satellites mentioned, only 70 are purely military intelligence - the rest are dual-use. In English, there is a term game changers, which does not have a correct translation into Russian. If we take a completely free approach to the interpretation of the concept, then it can be characterized as an event or phenomenon that radically changes the situation on the playing field, or the rules of the game. So, with a high degree of probability, it was the enemy satellites that became the game changers in Ukraine. And both before the start, and during the special operation.
There is nothing surprising in this - the space intelligence of the United States and the Soviet Union by the mid-60s of the last century devalued the secrecy of preparation for war. For fifty years now, no country has been able to effectively mask large-scale military maneuvers and preparatory measures.
Space vigilance has many advantages. For example, in the 60s, the Soviet leadership received high-quality photographs of American launch sites for ballistic missiles, airfields, and naval bases. Prior to this, all data on enemy arsenals were indirect, which means that they could be trusted very conditionally. After counting the American arsenal, negotiations began in the SALT-1 program.
Space reconnaissance makes it possible to effectively use military forces and plan operations even at the company level. The initial stage of the special operation demonstrated this very clearly - the enemy was well aware of the number and deployment of Russian troops. The situation has not fundamentally changed to this day.
The above system works in a balanced way on the principles of parity, when both sides have approximately equal opportunities in space. With a large degree of conventionality, parity was observed during the Cold War. Now the situation is reversed - one of the parties has an advantage, and this cannot but affect strategic stability. One of the players has an irresistible desire to realize their interests by force.
A small digression illustrating the impact of space photo reconnaissance in times of strategic parity.
According to the Russian publication Strategic Stability, the Americans in the 60s and 70s, based on space monitoring of the agricultural fields of the USSR, came to the conclusion that a “grain crisis” was coming. After that, the capitalist states promptly adjusted world prices in the food market, forcing the countries to pay for wheat in gold and oil.
Such schemes are a thing of the past, but the risk of uncontrolled escalation has increased significantly due to the NATO bloc's high awareness of Russia's nuclear potential.
SOI 2.0
The space defense of the United States is based on the concept of superiority or superiority. The founding term appears all the time in open access strategy documents such as the Defense Space Strategy. Whether they realize the real state of affairs or overestimate their capabilities is an open question. The main thing is that the United States does not intend to agree on anything with Russia and China regarding the use of near-Earth space.
As mentioned above, now only nuclear testing is banned - everything else is allowed. In addition to classic espionage, American satellites assess the state of natural resources, study engineering structures, transport networks, and map country territories in detail.
For example, the linear resolution on the ground of the optical equipment of the IKONOS, Quick-Bird, World-View, Pleiades-1 satellites makes it possible to distinguish geometric objects up to 50 cm in size. Of course, for such accurate shooting, the devices still need to be aimed at objects - highly detailed cameras usually have a capture the earth's surface is no more than 20–30 km. But everything is decided by the number of satellites. It is not without reason that half a thousand spacecraft of the NATO bloc are working for Ukraine.
Not a hindrance and cloudiness over the theater of operations - for this purpose, radar imaging from space serves. The locator of a modern satellite, such as Lacrosse, with a synthetic aperture produces images in any bad weather with an accuracy of one meter. And the capture zone of the system is much larger than the optical one - up to 100 km. Do not forget about the subsurface location, which complicates the camouflage of strategic objects.
Particularly promising is the Starlite or Discoverer-II system, which was buried by the US Congress in 2000. In fact, it was a project to create space target designators (analogues of the E-8 JSTARS flying command post), which made it possible to aim weapons at strategic targets. You can unfreeze Starlite at any time - on the new hardware base, a constellation of satellites will be launched into space faster and cheaper.
The Americans are actively working on a system designed to break through the Russian air defense system and destroy ballistic missile launchers. U-2 reconnaissance, F-35 strike, strategic Drones and cruise missiles. In addition to this, there is information about the development of electronic warfare satellites that suppress ground-based radars.
The icing on the cake is the concept of "zero echelon" missile defense, that is, the destruction of Russian and Chinese missiles even before launch. The Americans allocated money for this in 2021, and last year they approved it as a concept for the development of the entire missile defense system of the United States.
In fact, we are witnessing the birth of the second Strategic Defense Initiative, infamous since the days of Reagan-Gorbachev.
Hack and predictor Aviator
There are several ways out of this situation.
At first, you can try to agree on the nonproliferation of weapons in space.
There are many difficulties. First of all, Washington considers itself omnipotent in this area, which makes it automatically incapable of negotiating. Perhaps only the appearance of a Russian-Chinese defense alliance in the space sphere can help persuade the Americans.
It should be understood that the unwillingness to negotiate puts the enemy in an uncomfortable position. The presence of a mass of enemy satellites in near-Earth orbit does not have the best effect on the moral and psychological climate in the top Russian leadership. This, in turn, increases the nervousness in decision making.
The second obstacle is the difficulty of identifying "malicious" devices in orbit. Now dozens of civilian satellites are going into space, which work quite effectively for the military. The same Starlink for example.
The second asymmetric responses are the way out for Russia and China. Up to declaring the outer space over the countries sovereign.
It makes little difference whether a U-2 reconnaissance aircraft or another Lacrosse is flying over the territory - it is very debatable to talk about sovereignty in this case. Russia has a complex "Peresvet", which is engaged in "covering the maneuvering actions" of mobile missile systems. That is, work in this direction is underway, but so far fragmentarily. Only from the cover it's time to move on to the purposeful decommissioning of enemy constellations of satellites.
As a last resort, we can remind the Americans of the Starfish prime nuclear test in 1962, when the Pentagon detonated a 1,4-megaton charge in space. There was a lot of rustling - at 1 kilometers from the epicenter, an electromagnetic pulse turned off the light, disrupted telephony and radio communications.
Three satellites died immediately, including the first television relay Telstar-1 and the first British Ariel-1. Seven more left the game a little later due to the destruction of solar panels and electronics.
If something like this were created now, up to 90 percent of the entire cosmic grouping of the planet would be ordered to live long. This situation looks like a completely extreme measure, but only it will quickly and effectively resolve the issue of spy satellites and communication satellites in a possible war of the future.
Naturally, the domestic grouping, for example, GLONASS, will also fail. An alternative option is to provide for the deployment of a communications system based on hundreds of high-altitude drones and the improvement of navigation without satellites.
Finally, third and the most expensive way out of the situation is to build up your own constellation of satellites. Up to parity with the Americans. Priority is given to joint programs with China and India, as well as the development of the commercial sector. The latter will allow shifting part of the financial pregnancy to the business.
In all other development scenarios, enemy satellites will forever become a sad tradition of Russian reality.
Information