Ukrainian air defense: the depletion of their own and others' stocks
Launcher NASAMS - such air defense systems have become the most massive in foreign deliveries. Photo by Wikimedia Commons
Since last fall, foreign partners and patrons have been helping the Kyiv regime rebuild its shattered air defense system. Modern and old anti-aircraft systems of various types and ammunition for them are supplied. However, such assistance has practically no effect on the current situation, and the continuation of supplies is difficult or impossible.
Gained and Lost
In October 2022, Kyiv once again requested modern anti-aircraft missile systems from foreign partners. Foreign countries agreed to provide such assistance and even determined a preliminary list of funds to be supplied. Shipments of equipment began in autumn-winter. It was planned to supply both modern and obsolete samples of production from different countries.
The transferred foreign air defense systems have predictably become a priority target for Russian strikes. The defeat and incapacitation of one or another foreign product is regularly reported. Particularly famous was the successful operation to destroy the advertised American Patriot air defense system. With all this, the Ukrainian crews of foreign complexes regularly and actively launch anti-aircraft missiles and deplete the provided reserves.
Foreign partners are trying to make up for the loss of complexes and missiles - it is regularly reported that such products are included in regular military aid packages. However, these measures cannot change the situation for the better and help the Kyiv regime. As it turned out, the possibilities of the United States and friendly countries in the context of the shipment of modern air defense systems and ammunition for them are very limited.
One of the first NASAMS air defense systems deployed in Ukraine. Photo Telegram / "Military informant"
For the time being, foreign partners are finding an opportunity to remove certain systems from service or storage and transfer them to Kyiv. However, this assistance does not differ in large volumes. The supplier countries care, first of all, about their security, and are not going to sacrifice it and unacceptably reduce arsenals and parks.
Reduced Volumes
In the recent past, the Ukrainian leadership had high hopes for the American Patriot air defense system. In autumn and winter, such systems came to Ukraine and later took up combat duty. At the same time, despite the objective needs of the Kyiv regime, the volumes of deliveries were small, and they are not going to increase them. Moreover, the allocation of even such assistance was associated with certain difficulties.
In total, the United States, Germany and their allies were able to find, release and ship only a few Patriot battery packs. Some of this equipment has already been destroyed by Russian strikes, and NATO countries are trying to make up for such losses, but without much success. So, a few days ago, the German leadership announced that it would include two Patriot launchers in the next aid package for Ukraine - only two.
Modern systems NASAMS, IRIS-T, SAMP/T, etc. are also supplied and also in limited quantities. Some of these samples have recently entered service with foreign countries, and the latter do not have a large fleet of them. Accordingly, sending equipment to Ukraine will worsen the own air defense of these states. It is necessary to manufacture complexes from scratch, which requires time and money.
"Combat work" of the American Patriot air defense system in Kyiv, May 2023. Soon this complex will be hit. Photo Telegram / BMPD
Since last autumn, a curious story with the supply of obsolete American-made MIM-23 HAWK complexes. Back in October, Spain promised to provide a certain amount of such equipment - for two or three fire platoons. Soon, third countries persuaded her to slightly increase the amount of such assistance. The United States also expressed its readiness to ship the Hawks and missiles for them.
By the beginning of 2023, the former Spanish air defense systems came to Ukraine and took up duty. As far as is known, the supply of HAWK products stopped there. At the same time, the Pentagon continues to search for equipment for transmission, so far without much success. The air defense systems he has, both ground assets and missiles, have been in storage for a long time and need complex and lengthy repairs. Several countries refused deliveries, citing the same reasons. It was also reported about the imminent redemption of the Hawks, recently withdrawn from service with the Taiwanese army. However, official Taipei denied such information.
However, there have been some limited successes. So, at the end of June, Lithuania agreed to purchase two foreign-made NASAMS SAM launchers for Ukraine. Delivery of finished products is expected in the next three months. Four more such complexes and ammunition for them were promised by the United States a few days ago.
Looking for rockets
According to available data, the Kiev regime and its patrons also face the problem of a lack of anti-aircraft missiles. Last year, the Russian army destroyed a large number of ammunition depots for Soviet-style air defense systems with directed strikes. In addition, Ukrainian air defense systems are actively spending existing missiles, mostly to no avail.
The remains of a Patriot rocket in Kyiv. Photo Telegram / BMPD
Together with their air defense systems, foreign partners supply compatible missiles of various types. Despite all efforts and measures, in general, they repeat the fate of previously available products - they are destroyed along with warehouses or launched without any result, except for the destruction of their own urban development.
At the same time, the volume of deliveries from abroad is limited, which becomes an additional threat to Kyiv. Thus, in a well-known data leak from NATO countries that took place at the beginning of the year, there was information on the consumption of anti-aircraft missiles and an estimate of stocks. It was assumed that over the next few weeks, Ukraine will completely use up the old Soviet-era stocks, and then run out of foreign-made missiles. Whether this information corresponded to the real state of affairs is unknown. Perhaps this was a deliberate disinformation on the part of NATO - however, in this case, the leaked "document" shows an obvious and expected trend.
However, foreign patrons continue to supply the Kiev regime with anti-aircraft missiles. So, in June, the Pentagon announced two new aid packages, which included additional batches of missiles for the Patriot and NASAMS air defense systems. In recent weeks, in July, they promised to deliver Patriot, NASAMS and AIM-7 missiles in the version for ground-based air defense systems. However, the number of products for shipment is not specified.
Taking into account the peculiarities of combat work and the results of the combat use of Ukrainian air defense, as well as the specifics of the foreign military industry, interesting results can be expected in the near future. The United States and allies will use up the “free” part of their arsenals, which can be transferred to Kyiv without compromising their own defense. At the same time, replenishing arsenals in a reasonable time and at acceptable costs will not work.
Launcher and missiles MIM-23 HAWK armed forces of Taiwan. Photo Telegram / BMPD
Without the possibility of recovery
In the first weeks of the Special Operation, the Russian armed forces suppressed the air defense of the Kyiv regime - a single layered system ceased to exist and fell apart into several separate areas and centers. In addition, systematic identification and destruction of radio-technical and air defense weapons is being carried out. In a few months, it was possible to knock out most of the air defense systems and related systems that remained with Ukraine after the collapse of the USSR.
Only in the autumn did foreign patrons and partners begin to help the Kyiv regime in restoring the lost air defense. However, such assistance is limited. First of all, the problem is in small volumes of supply, which do not allow to compensate for the losses incurred, as well as to form a full-fledged air defense system. As a result, even the most modern foreign air defense systems cannot fully realize their potential. They fail to cover the entrusted area, and often protect themselves.
The Russian army has shown a high strike potential and the ability to break through air defense, built even on modern foreign components. In addition, our industry is capable of providing massive attacks, which are of particular difficulty for enemy air defense. Practice shows that the latter does not cope with the ongoing missile attacks and does not prevent our army from carrying out its tasks.
The Kiev regime, the United States and other countries are trying to correct this situation, but they are not succeeding - and will not succeed in the future. In addition, foreign states, following Ukraine, faced the problem of depleting their arsenals. They will have to decide how to distribute existing systems and new products, and in addition, choose between their own air defense and assistance to the Kyiv regime. However, regardless of the choice of foreign armies, the prospects of the current Ukrainian authorities and their air defense are understandable and predictable.
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