There is less and less optimism. AUKUS submarine program
The author proposes that starting from 2024, American Virginia-type submarines will periodically (scheduled) enter the Australian naval base Perth (Osborne), it must be understood that there is no final decision on this issue yet. Perhaps, “moose” will also come in, but since the purchase of “Virginias” is theoretically supposed, they are more logical after all.
Regular visits by British Estuits are planned for sometime in 2026, although this is not a fact. Since the British MAPL program is far behind schedule, the latest, Agincourt, is expected to enter service in 2027. Taking into account maintenance and repairs, there will be no more than three Estute submarines in service. Sending one of the few to the other side of the world is a so-so occupation.
Repair
The author hopes that the dry dock at Devonport will be upgraded, enlarged and certified to serve nuclear submarines. But so far this issue has not been considered by the Ministry of Defense, even in theory. And this makes the situation with the repair and maintenance of British nuclear submarines very difficult, one might say, dangerous. Since there is only one dock in Rosyth for these purposes.
In addition, in 2035, the Estiut will end its service life. After that, either decommissioning, and where to decommission it, if not one of the decommissioned British nuclear submarines has yet been disposed of. Or a long, expensive repair. If for these purposes the only dock in Rosyth is occupied, then in case of any emergency there is nothing left at all. After that, such repairs or write-offs are expected by all the other Estuits.
In addition to the above, there is another problem.
Another shipbuilding program in the Royal navy always insured the previous one. So, the Trafalgars were insured by the Swiftshurs. The last of them, Scepter, was decommissioned even later than Trafalgar, in 2010. The last of the Triumphs had recently fled to Gibraltar and back. It is clear that this is a purely publicity stunt before decommissioning, but nevertheless the boat is on the move. But who and how will insure the promising Australian-British MAPL is an open question.
This is about the repair, now let's talk about construction.
Building
After the slipway is freed from the last Estuit, the Dreadnought will be laid on it. Considering that even Estuits were built on average for ten years, one can only guess how long it will take to build a larger and more technically complex boat.
Theoretically, by 2035, the hull of the second Dreadnought will be on the slipway. In an ideal situation, which is very unlikely - the third. That is, there is simply nowhere to build a promising boat for AUKUS.
Now back to the American "Virginia".
The situation is approximately the same as in England. MAPLs, like future SSBNs of the Columbia type, are being built by two shipyards, which are interconnected by hulls. Stopping one shipyard means a complete stop of the entire construction.
The pace of construction is also far behind the desired. So far, the Americans are pulling 1,2 boats a year, instead of the prescribed two. But even here, there are nuances.
Thus, the construction of two next Virginia-class Block V submarines, SSN-812 and SSN-813, was delayed for more than a year due to a dispute between the Pentagon and General Electric about liability in the event of an explosion of a ground-based Tomahawk missile aboard a submarine. Until 2018, the Navy assumed responsibility for General Dynamics in the event of a Tomahawk accident aboard a submarine under construction, an unusually risky proposition due to the higher energy fuel.
The stalemate between the Navy and General Dynamics delayed the procurement of materials for the two submarines by nearly a year, USNI News previously reported.
So, for a great life, the American fleet instead of two "Virginias" received one big "0".
Considering that the repair situation is simply catastrophic, nuclear submarines have been under repair for six years or more. The fleet is trying to transfer repairs to manufacturers who already have problems through the roof.
Where three extra Virginias will come from in the early 2030s, one can only guess.
Especially since the US Navy is drawn into a long and costly race with the Chinese Navy. And the US prospects in this race do not look bright, to put it mildly.
Here, however, the author slightly supplemented the British publicist. I refer all those interested in the original to the Navalnews website, the article is called "Understanding the timing of the AUKUS submarine program."
PS
The picture is purely illustrative.
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