How many planes will not be given to Ukraine to defeat Russia?
I was surprised by the speech of the Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine Zaluzhny, in which he said that he was infuriated by the statements of Western politicians that the counteroffensive was going too slowly. Say, then show how it is necessary or give everything that we ask.
Right now, everything around this “give” will rotate and turn upside down and back.
In general, Zaluzhny is in some ways a very decent commander, demonstrating knowledge of the operations of the past. I mean, not from the time of the Greek or Roman wars, but modern ones. And that is exactly what they demonstrate to the allies from time to time. In his last speech, Zaluzhny reminded those who are unhappy that they, the older brothers from NATO, never launch offensive operations without absolute air superiority.
It turns out that the Ukrainian commander-in-chief is aware of the installations of the NATO system (by the way, not very different from ours), which directly say that before conducting any offensive operations, it is simply necessary to win this very superiority in the air.
Otherwise, it's better not to start.
However, NATO demonstrated all this long ago, but why should Ukraine go its own way? This is what Zaluzhny, with a decent amount of resentment, voiced. That is, the Russian army must, by all rights, have air superiority, NATO armies must, but what about the Armed Forces of Ukraine? Develop your own personal doctrine, according to which it is necessary to attack without this very superiority?
Of course, attacking with what you have is not the way to victory, and recent events have shown this very colorfully. This “fight with what you have” is, of course, good, but ... it is not guaranteed to lead to victory. And Zaluzhny, as a literate person, understands this. It's just that it can't really do anything.
Let me quote. Very relevant here.
“To get to the borders of Crimea, today we need to overcome the distance of 84 km to Melitopol. By the way, this is enough for us, because Melitopol would give us full fire control of the land corridor, from Melitopol we can already fire on the Crimean Isthmus, with the same HIMARS and so on. I know that I can defeat this enemy. But I need resources. I need 300 more tanks, 600-700 infantry fighting vehicles, 500 howitzers. Then, I think, it is quite realistic to reach the milestones on February 23, 2022.”
Who said that? Yes, all the same, General Zaluchny! December 15, 2022.
And you don’t have to shovel the Internet for days to find information that almost everyone from this list of the Armed Forces of Ukraine received.
Except planes. We have already discussed this point, last year there was no talk of airplanes and helicopters at all. There is no mention of helicopters even now.
Perhaps the Ukrainian sponsors would have been softer if not for the Ukrainians themselves, who for a long time told everyone about the impending counteroffensive. Which eventually began, but ...
Turns out they needed planes. And to them the crews. And also engineers. And also technology. And also equipment for servicing aircraft at airfields.
And somehow it all went wrong.
But even at the beginning (on the 8th, in my opinion) of May and June 6, none other than the Chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff Mark Milley told everyone how Ukraine is ready for a counteroffensive and what excellent chances it has of defeating Russia.
True, Mr. General added that "it is too early to say what the outcome will be." Apparently, Milli is such a good general, who understands that without aviation, in the style of the First World War, today it is somewhat problematic to fight.
Well, Zaluzhny has now joined him. And here the question arises: what were you thinking about when you planned?
In general, of course, they thought. As it is now becoming clear, the Armed Forces of Ukraine relied on their air defense systems and the direct protection of troops by small-caliber anti-aircraft artillery such as ZSU-23-2 or German Gepards. And the strikes of Russian aviation should be neutralized by attacks on airfields with the help of the same Hymars.
So, of course, the plan is not without flaws. It was not possible to cover the troops, and the effective "Stingers" are weapon close range. On which the enemy may not fly up. And the Aerospace Forces nevertheless organized the harvest of the equipment of the Armed Forces of Ukraine accumulated for the offensive. And the missile systems themselves now complex in front of the "Lancets" and "Shaheds", which have become a very unpleasant, but effective way to deal with air defense systems.
So the symbol of the struggle was not an expensive anti-radar missile, but the cheapest ratchet with three kilograms of explosives. Which is more than enough to plant on the antenna, and that's it. The air defense system is no longer good for anything, except for repairs. It may not even detonate.
Well, there are not so many decent air defense systems in the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and they are stuffed mainly in cities. To combat Russian cruise missiles and other deadly weapons.
But we have a counteroffensive!
You know, there's a good American (or not) saying about how much a sheriff should care about Indian issues...
Of course, the APU just needs air superiority! Not on the entire front, but at least in the offensive zone. This is a classic martial art. And superiority in the air must be supplemented by superiority in manpower, tanks and artillery. That's when there will be an offensive, and not attempts at it.
And, if you look at other publications on "VO" on this topic, it becomes clear that this difficult task is becoming almost impossible for the Armed Forces of Ukraine.
Let's start breaking it down piece by piece.
What is "superiority"? First of all, this is a quantitative and (especially) qualitative superiority in the types of weapons on a certain sector of the front. We are now talking only about aircraft, because the Ukrainian military themselves are still silent about helicopters.
Quantitative and qualitative superiority in aircraft is not an easy task, even for the NATO bloc. It is difficult from the point of view of logistics, although it is already clear that it is not worth waiting for planes from NATO before autumn. We are already silent about everything else that should be attached.
These unfortunate "Leopards" can serve as an example. How they were expected, how they were hoped for, behold, the Russians will come and run. Well, they came. And then? Trawls? Demining machines? ARVs? Workshops? Well, that's all, everything was calm. Waiting for the equipment to be sent that can normally ensure the combat process of using the Leopards.
Airplanes are much more complex.
That is, the planes will send. And with them something too, most likely. From weapons, candle filters and everything else for small things, as they say.
We will talk about the qualitative plan separately, but here I will simply repeat that neither the F-16, nor the Mirage 2000, nor the Tornado and Griffin can be full-fledged rivals of the Su-30SM or Su-35S. And it's not even about the old age or sophisticated aircraft, the fact is that they belong to different classes. And all the listed Western aircraft are representatives of the class where we have the MiG-29, which is long overdue for retirement. And "drying", whatever one may say, is from the class of heavyweights. Well, like a musketeer against an epic hero.
And, in fact, all aerobatic qualities fade into the background a bit when it comes to missile slaps from a distance of 30-60 km. Although our aircraft with their controllable thrust vectors can quite compete with Western fighters on an equal footing, it is not a fact that the latter will show more advanced aerobatics.
Therefore, in short: they will not give Ukraine aircraft that will be superior in quality to Russian ones. Well, there are not so many of them in the public domain. So what happiness will be the Swedish "Gryphons" or the American "Falcons" 50/52 series.
This is if they are.
But then (especially if they are), maybe it’s the quantity to take? Were 24 Pakistani aircraft (not the best in terms of “price / quality”) able to force an Indian detachment of four MiG-21s and four Su-30s to abandon their plans in February 2019? We did. When eight of your missiles fly from the enemy side, this is a reason for reflection. Very fast, because a rocket is by no means a slow thing.
So, we must try to take the quantity.
The task is also not easy. And it is difficult to paint it, because for certain reasons the number of aircraft involved is not disclosed on our part. But you can imagine yourself as Surovikin and just think about how many units from the Aerospace Forces need to be involved to ensure all the processes of air defense on the part of aviation. Or read the reports of the Ministry of Defense, from which you can also learn something.
We will take the pre-war VKS schemes from mil.ru and build some conjectures on them.
So, what do we need in order to ensure aerial work in the NWO zone?
1-2 bomber regiments on the Su-34. Rather, two, painfully good car.
At least 2 fighter regiments to cover bombers on the Su-27 or Su-30.
1 regiment on Su-35 to fight enemy fighters and radars.
And all this needs to be multiplied by two, since aircraft require maintenance and repair, and people need rest. But we have so many units equipped with just such aircraft. I deliberately omitted the Su-25s, which work a little differently, but there are completely different thoughts about them.
In total, let's take that our regiments are composed of two squadrons of 12 aircraft each (there may be more squadrons, but we'll just take it for convenience of calculation), it turns out that 48 bombers and 72 fighters are needed ... Yes, to organize the interception of bombers and the neutralization of fighters , you need a numerical advantage. At least two to one, then there are chances. It is clear that our regiments will not rise as a whole, now they fight so rarely, but nevertheless: in order to work against Russian aircraft in the conditions of a numerical advantage in the NATO style, the Armed Forces of Ukraine must have at least four fighter regiments of 24 aircraft each.
Well, plus training, since no one canceled the training and retraining of flight personnel.
The figures are very approximate, but certain conclusions can be drawn from them. The Armed Forces of Ukraine need to somehow knock out about a hundred fighters from the allies. At first, you can do less, but the essence is this.
A smaller amount simply will not give the expected effect. And Ukrainian pilots will continue to imitate their presence in the sky without much chance of success. Well, about like the Luftwaffe pilots in 1945.
Now attention, the question is: who will give Ukraine a hundred fighters?
Excuse me, if tanks were assembled here all over Europe and barely scraped together, then planes ... No, there is, of course, one country, the United States, that could share, but it is doubtful that even the States will be able to master so much. Still, 40 million dollars apiece. A terrible figure is obtained at the output.
Collect all over the world like tanks? But excuse me, one thing is a decommissioned or a tank that has stood in storage for 30 years, and an airplane is another thing. The tank does not fly, it is easier for him. Crawl forward and babahai from the cannon.
By itself, such a prospect is unlikely to please the Western allies of Ukraine, it is not in vain that Zaluzhny is so worried and swears at those who help. That's right, if they give aircraft, then a maximum of a couple of squadrons. Well, it's expensive!
Therefore, the Armed Forces of Ukraine will only have to try to replace aviation with missile weapons like the same Hymars and Shadows of the Storm. But this, alas, is an ersatz. Missiles of these types can, of course, inflict damage on the enemy, but, unlike aircraft, missile systems are not as mobile and are not able to carry out the types of countermeasures against the enemy that aircraft easily do.
The Armed Forces of Ukraine today do not have the ability to carry out the fight against our aircraft precisely in view of the insignificant combat strength of their aviation. The air forces of Ukraine largely retained their combat capability during the special operation, but they are still small in number. And how much the West can help here - we'll see.
However, most likely, assistance will be expressed in the supply of single vehicles that simply cannot turn the tide in the sky of Ukraine.
Pilots will be trained. This is understandable, or rather, they are already being taught. If pilots are taught, then, most likely, the technical staff is also taught in parallel, because in order for one pilot to take off, almost three dozen people must work on the ground. And there is no escape from this, these people simply have to know Western technology.
But already today, certain conclusions can be drawn that no one will give Kyiv such a number of aircraft that will allow Ukraine to turn the tide of the air war. Finding a hundred (and preferably more) aircraft is not easy, and very expensive.
It is clear that there are many countries in the world that will gladly give Ukraine their old F-16s (fortunately, the Sokolovs have been riveted more than enough) in exchange for new F-35s, but here is another question: will the American industry be able to churn out Lightnings in such quantities and under what financial conditions this cheerful Trade-in will be carried out. Giving Kyiv the F-16 is one thing, but for what money to get the F-35 at your disposal is quite another.
I am sure that this is precisely why the issue of transferring Western aircraft to Ukraine is being dragged out, because behind the scenes of the performance about noble assistance to Ukraine there is a fierce squabble over the percentage of the discount on the F-35.
And it slows down the process more than anything else.
That is why the question “How many planes will be given to Ukraine” is not as important as the question “How many planes will NOT be given to Ukraine”. And here you can expect a variety of forecasts, I think that they will not give about sixty. The figure of 30-40 for 2-3 years is more realistic, but it will not be able to have a special impact on the course of the NWO.
Information