Su-35 against NATO aircraft
Today, many are talking about what will begin in the skies of Ukraine, when the Armed Forces of Ukraine receive (hereinafter the list of Western-made aircraft) much-needed fighters.
Let me express and justify the opinion that absolutely NOTHING will start.
It may seem strange to some, but indeed, there are simply no prerequisites for those air battles that the fantasy of some writers on the Internet draws. But let's go in order.
Taking as a source of information one of the sites from the other side and one of ours, where the losses of both sides are calculated quite honestly, that is, with tracking of publications of obituaries, and in the case of the Ukrainian side there are still confirmations, the following picture turned out: during the NWO from 28.02.2022/05.04.2/23 to XNUMX/XNUMX/XNUMX (so far everything has been investigated for this date, but that's enough for us) Ukrainian the side officially lost precisely in air battles:
February 24, 2022. Downed MiG-29. Lieutenant Colonel Yerko Vyacheslav Vladimirovich died.
February 24, 2022. Downed MiG-29. Lieutenant Colonel Kokhansky Vladimir Mikhailovich died.
February 24, 2022. Downed Su-27. Major Kolomiets Dmitry Valerievich died. District with. Kryntsilov, Khmelnytsky region.
February 28, 2022. Downed Su-27. Major Chobanu Stepan Ivanovich died. Air battle over Kropyvnytskyi.
March 1, 2022. Downed MiG-29. Major Brinzhala Alexander Petrovich died.
March 8, 2022. Downed MiG-29. Major Lyutashin Andrey Alexandrovich died.
March 13, 2022. Downed MiG-29. Major Taralka Stepan Ivanovich died. Air battle in the Zhytomyr region.
March 23, 2022. Downed MiG-29. Major Chumachenko Dmitry Romanovich died. Air battle at Trigorye, Zhytomyr region.
March 30, 2022. Downed Su-24R. Major Gorodnichev Konstantin Valentinovich and Colonel Sikalenko Maxim Anatolyevich died. Air combat in the area with. Tumen, Rivne region
May 5, 2022. Downed Mi-14. Colonel Bedzai Igor Vladimirovich and Major Ilchuk Vasily Vasilyevich died. The helicopter was shot down by gunfire from a Su-35 fighter near Pervomaisky Island between Kinburn Spit and Nikolaev.
January 27, 2023. Downed Su-25. A missile from a Su-35 fighter. The plane crashed near Andreevka, DPR.
January 27, 2023. Downed Su-25. A missile from a Su-30 fighter. Captain Murashko Daniil Gennadievich died. Su-25 shot down near Kramatorsk.
March 2, 2023. A Russian Aerospace Forces fighter shot down a Su-24. The crew (pilot Viktor Volynets and navigator Igor Solomennikov) died.
In general, few, if considered impartially, almost the same number of aircraft of the Armed Forces of Ukraine died from their own air defense systems. The vast majority of downed Ukrainian planes and helicopters are accounted for by Russian anti-aircraft missile systems.
What does it say? Only about what aviation The Armed Forces of Ukraine prefer to work where there is no real possibility of running into the same Su-35s.
Today there will be a few quotes, but for a change - from the other side. It makes sense to show how the Ukrainian military figures themselves assess their abilities and needs.
“The MiG-29 has a visibility range with its radar systems of only 60 kilometers, firing range of 30 kilometers. For example, Su-35s have a radar range of more than 200 kilometers and a firing range of more than 100 kilometers.- Minister of Defense of Ukraine Oleksiy Reznikov.
Mr. Minister is a little sorry, the Ukrainian version of the N019U1 radar can “look” a little further than 60 km, but, in fact, yes, this is still the same “Phasotron” radar from the 80s of the last century. And therefore, of course, the MiG-29MU2 is a very easy target for the Su-35.
In addition, there is still the question of the use of the MiG-29 by the Ukrainian Air Force. Basically, the aircraft was destined for the role of an attack aircraft, because the role of a cruise missile interceptor went to the Su-27, which is not a worker on the ground at all.
The huge losses of the MiGs at the beginning of the SVO were caused by the fact that everything that the MiG-29 pilots could hit the enemy with, except for bombs, was again the Soviet Kh-29 missiles, the launch range of which for the Kh-29E and Kh- modifications available for Ukraine 29T does not exceed 10-12 km, which means that it is guaranteed to expose any Russian air defense system to attack. The same "Thor" M1 has the ability to defeat the MiG-29 before the launch of the Kh-29.
Of course, air defense systems also have problems in the form of anti-radar missiles to a lesser extent and drones-kamikaze in more. The air defense systems are hunted, and hunted very successfully by both sides of the conflict. And far from always, air defense systems can fight off a threat from the sky. Paradox, but true.
And at present, such a cycle has been formed in nature, which allows Ukrainians today to somewhat justify such a slow pace of the counteroffensive to their Western partners. It turns out that the equipment that goes to the forefront receives from Russian aviation, missilemen and drone fighters. Air defense systems, which should counteract the aerospace forces, are received from UAVs of all stripes. It cannot be said that the Ukrainian side is completely inactive, but even before the start of the JMD, we said on our pages that the aircraft and air defense systems that are in service with the Armed Forces of Ukraine cannot be compared with Russian ones.
Like it or not, Russian technology is more modern.
The fact that NATO sends its air defense systems from time to time is not bad for the Armed Forces of Ukraine. However, Ukrainians will not be able to saturate the LBS with these gifts due to the small number. It remains only to protect the objects in the rear, moreover, selectively.
And now, with enviable persistence, Kyiv is hammering that it needs fighters. No, they are undoubtedly needed, with their help you can hunt for cruise missiles, drones, enemy aircraft and torment air defense with anti-radar missiles.
Here it is necessary to understand two things very clearly: which planes will be transferred (if they are transferred) and who will sit at the controls.
And we will start with the second part, this is the more significant part. There are plenty of planes riveted in the world, which cannot be said about the pilots who are ready to fight on them in terms of Ukraine.
Western fighters need suitably trained pilots. This is a fact that we have spoken about more than once or twice. And in six months these pilots cannot be retrained, whatever you do, they are “sharpened” for other equipment. They are not fools in the West, they perfectly see how successfully the Ukrainians use donated NATO equipment, how easily the same Leopards are put into statistics.
And foreign benefactors are well aware that more than one hundred "Leopards" will burn easily and simply in the Ukrainian fire, just give it free rein. But the Leopard 2 costs almost $7 million, while the cheapest F-16 Falcon costs at least $43 million. That is, you understood the essence of the problem: a tank can fight, and a Sokol shot down in the first sortie is 6 Leopards, whatever one may say.
And the pilot must be prepared, well, not for six months. Yes, programs are already underway there, but they are of no use... They will, of course, teach you how to fly, and, given the level of training of Ukrainian pilots, they will teach you how to fly quite decently. But to fight ... is doubtful.
Of course, there is the option of mercenaries. And this is a very acceptable option, I must say. Put at the controls of Western aircraft those who know how to fly and fight on these aircraft. And at the very least, there are such people, but it is quite possible to hire them for decent money.
Of course, it will cost more than a retrained Ukrainian pilot with a Su-27 (you have seen MiGs on fire in the truest sense of the word), but a Ukrainian can burn out on the very first flight, because he will not have time to switch to response actions in a new aircraft for himself. And a European or American mercenary may be able to live and fight longer.
In general, of course, it is doubtful that there will be many applicants, but there will be a certain number of crazy people. Who is not afraid of the S-300 and Su-35. But the critically required amount, of course, cannot be dialed. However, everything is better than Ukrainian pilots, somehow retrained at accelerated courses in Europe.
But in the end, should we feel sorry for the enemy?
Now the second part, more precisely, the first, but more understandable. Aircraft. And here it must be clearly understood that it will not be the MiG-29 and not the Su-27 that will resist the Ukrainian and not very aircraft because of their small remaining number due to their removal from the Aerospace Forces due to obsolescence. A certain amount of Su-27SM and SM3, of course, is not a match for the original versions, but everything else ...
So really, what you have to deal with is the Su-30 and Su-35. And here it is necessary to imagine very well the picture of a probable battle between these aircraft and what could take off from Ukrainian airfields.
What can be transferred to the Armed Forces of Ukraine, we dismantled almost all (except for the Swede) - the American F-16, the Swedish JAS-39 "Gripen", the European "Tornado" and "Typhoon" and the French Mirage-2000.
Let's go briefly, in terms of preference.
F-16 "Fighting Falcon"
Here we will try to do without stupid things like what was written in one Russian state media:
It must be clearly understood that the F-16 in this list has only one type of aircraft, somehow suitable for comparison - the MiG-29. The Su-27 and its pinnacle of development, the Su-35, as well as the MiG-31, are aircraft of a completely different class. These are twin-engine heavy fighters and an interceptor, large in mass and power-to-weight ratio. Accordingly, initially able to take more powerful equipment. And the whole conversation about comparisons can be ended with the fact that the radars of twin-engine Russian aircraft see much further (and they really see) than on lighter single-engine aircraft.
The F-16 is NATO's most massive combat aircraft. Solid, relatively cheap, a participant in all wars and conflicts in which NATO countries fought, but slightly morally and physically obsolete for fifty years. In general, everything is like the MiG-29, but on the other side.
The most significant advantage of the Falcon is that for 50 years they have come up with just a mountain of the most diverse missile and bomb weapons. In addition, the aircraft has the most developed logistics network in Europe and beyond, and thousands of specialists have been trained to work with the F-16. This is also a very significant aspect, because without specialists who understand maintenance and repair, this will be an aircraft of three sorties.
In the class of single-engine aircraft, the F-16 is perhaps the best. Very reliable, with good performance and thrust-to-weight ratio, it is the most tidbit for the APU. Because pilots are already being trained, and Sokolov will definitely be given by those who have already lined up for the F-35. And there are enough of them among European countries.
How good will the F-16 be against the Su-35? The Americans from Military Watch Magazine doubt and fear that such fights will end not in favor of the F-16, which means they will damage American prestige.
However, a coalition has already formed, which includes Belgium, Great Britain, Denmark, the Netherlands, Norway, Portugal and the United States, which is preparing to transfer the F-16 to Ukraine. And pilot training is already underway not only in the United States.
But here, perhaps, it makes sense to think about the tactics of application. The F-16 can be used as a strike aircraft against ground targets, the question is what range of weapons will be given to the supplied aircraft. But more on tactics below.
JAS 39 "Gripen"
The aircraft is much younger than the F-16, it was put into service in 1997, in general, the Griffin is similar to the Falcon, but lighter, inferior in combat load and range. It is understandable, the plane was conceived as a means of protecting Swedish airspace from ... most likely, from Russian aircraft. And in this scenario, the range was an insignificant factor.
The aircraft can be used as a strike aircraft, it is capable of bombs and air-to-surface missiles, and even anti-ship ones. But this is secondary, first of all, it is a fighter.
The “feature” of the JAS 39 is that the aircraft, due to its frankly low weight (8 tons versus 12 for the F-16 Block 50/52), is able to take off and land on short unequipped runways or use ordinary roads as such.
The price is slightly more expensive than the F-16 of those models that can get into Ukraine.
How good will the JAS 39 be against the Su-35? Question…
Mirage 2000 and Tornado
Forgive me for lumping two completely different aircraft into one pile, but the principle of unification is the same - Ukrainians frankly turn up their noses at this technology. In Kyiv, these aircraft are not highly valued.
“They will not help us - I would ask all experts to refrain from these stupid comments. The same "Mirages" - compare with the MiG-29, and everything will become clear ", - said in March of this year, the talking head of the Ukrainian Air Force Yuri Ignat.
In fact, the Mirage is a quite wealthy fourth-generation aircraft, which normally took part in hostilities with the same Indian and Greek Air Forces. Yes, it was discontinued back in 2007, but the aircraft is quite acceptable.
"Tornado" yes, frankly old. The fact that both aircraft in the battle with the Su-35 will turn into scrap metal is understandable.
Eurofighter «Typhoon»
This is what the Ukrainians have been asking for for a long time. It is clear why, the aircraft is much younger than the Mirage and Tornado, in terms of combat characteristics it is quite comparable to the F-16 and even surpasses the Griffin, but as a product the Typhoon is much more expensive and more difficult to maintain.
So the receipt of these aircraft by Ukraine in general looks very doubtful. Although it is already clear that what the Ukrainian military pilots will fly on is not decided in Kyiv.
“Now we have moved to discuss the topic of strengthening the Ukrainian Air Force as part of our commitment to Ukraine’s self-defense, in the coming months we will work with our allies to determine where the aircraft will be transferred, how many and who will transfer them.” - National Security Adviser to the President of the United States Jake Sullivan.
There is such a nuance here: if gentlemen, the allies decide to give different aircraft, here, by analogy with tank and artillery diversity in the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be a complete nightmare. We will have to train not only pilots for American or Swedish aircraft, but also engineers, technicians, and so on. An aircraft is a more complex mechanism than the same self-propelled guns, and the presence of Soviet, Polish, French, Slovak and Turkish self-propelled guns in the Armed Forces of Ukraine can be endured much easier than fussing with planes.
So the F-16 really looks preferable.
But let's talk now about air combat.
Air combat is a direct clash of aircraft. Such an event is very controversial and very fleeting.
The latest massive dogfight that can be referenced is the fight between the Indian and Pakistani air forces in February 2019. Yes, there were 24 Pakistani planes against 8 Indian ones, so everything was limited to missile launches from an almost safe distance and an insane attack by an Indian pilot on the MiG-21 of his Pakistani colleagues. As a result, the exchange of the MiG-21 for the F-16 and that's it.
But this is India and Pakistan. And we have Ukrainian realities and Ukrainian pilots who will be taught by instructors from NATO. And according to all the instructions and models of combat according to NATO standards, aircraft (the same F-16s) operate in large groups of different numbers. The most effective model is a "wing" of 16-18 aircraft, which operate in echelon.
The first group is a pair of reconnaissance. These are "skirmishers" who simply assess the battlefield, "catch" the radiation of other people's radars, transmit data for analysis, and often simulate an attack. This is the launch of medium-range missiles "in the direction of the enemy" or anti-radar missiles also in the direction of operating radars. And that's all, and further turn and at maximum speed under the cover of their air defense.
The second group is shock. Usually two pairs that work from different heights. If the first pair of reconnaissance "broke up" and the enemy aircraft began maneuvers to evade missiles, breaking the formation, then the second echelon begins to work hard on them. If the enemy accepts the fight, then the first pair can easily return and play the role of a reserve link, adding their five cents to the fight.
The third group is usually two pairs of cover. They ensure the withdrawal of the first two groups so that nothing flies into the precious nozzles on the way out and catch enemy planes on a counterattack if they go to catch up with the retreating ones.
The fourth group is the reserve, which dangles nearby and enters into action if it starts to take a completely ugly turn.
Considering that today in the sky of Ukraine the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine and the Russian Aerospace Forces operate mainly in pairs or even single aircraft, it is difficult to imagine such sorties. And in order for the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine to start working in this manner, one can estimate how many aircraft and flight personnel will be needed.
Today, it is almost impossible to imagine a “classic” air combat “airplane to plane” even in such conditions when both sides do not take off in groups. Both Ukrainian, NATO and Russian fighters are equipped with on-board radio-electronic systems, which not only can look at tens of kilometers, but also interact with ground and air early warning and control systems.
That is, the appearance of an enemy aircraft may be, but this is already from a completely separate opera, an ambush. And yes, in such situations, battles at very short distances (up to 20 km) are quite possible.
And here, of course, decides who saw and reacted first. That is, either launched missiles, or began to brush aside those launched in his direction with the help of a defense complex or maneuver.
about maneuvering. It's difficult here. The F-16 is light, like the MiG-29. And fidgety too, although in the understanding of a classic aircraft. And the Su-30 or Su-35 that flew out after him, even though they are still chests in mass, but their rotary nozzles and controlled engine thrust vector will be able to provide these strands with maneuverability, which can be better than that of the F-16.
Here the pilot's ability to use the aircraft's capabilities to the fullest will greatly influence. The large turning radii of the F-16 and the prospect of "breaking the trajectory" of the Su-35 are different moments and the advantage here is clearly behind our aircraft.
But the main thing is the human factor. A volunteer mercenary (sarcasm, if anything) from NATO countries will have the opportunity to get away from the Su-35, a retrained Ukrainian - I doubt it. Su-35 in terms of acceleration, braking, turning both vertically and horizontally looks preferable to the F-16. Of course, if there is an experienced instructor with 30 years of experience in the Sokol's cockpit, and we have a lieutenant-captain, then the American will have a chance. But even the major-lieutenant colonel of the Armed Forces of Ukraine will be frankly sorry.
In general, all these stories that experienced pilots of the former Soviet aviation can be retrained on the F-16 in six months or a year, or even in a quarter, are complete nonsense. In general, there are practically no pilots of Soviet aviation left, so, surviving veterans, who are in the region of fifty dollars and beyond. Moreover, not only in the Air Force of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, but also in our country. Here it is appropriate to say this: this is different. Another school, another technique, other skills - everything is different. So different from the piloting skills that the Ukrainian pilots have received that it will take them years to master and confidently use American fighters. Takeoff and landing experience will be gained instantly, there is no dispute, but combat use, which requires, first of all, a sense of a different technique, is a problem.
But we are talking about air combat, where the pilot works to the fullest, because otherwise he will add to the list that was at the beginning! This means that it is necessary to release into the air against the Russian Aerospace Forces not retrained pilots who can take off and fly, but capable of performing complex combat missions at any time of the day, in any weather. Are there many of these in the Ukrainian Air Force? I'm sure not. There were not very many of them, but here they were also thinned out in full.
But I will continue to hammer woodpecker: six months or a year of unhurried training under NATO programs will not make Ukrainian pilots professionals on the F-16. So they will burn.
And even the numerical superiority of the aforementioned F-16 wing may not play such a role. The question is not the number of missiles that can be launched in one salvo (although this is also one of the components of success), the question is who can defend themselves against them.
Of course, the most modern AIM-120, RVV-AE or MBDA "Meteor", which practically work on the "fire and forget" principle, is unpleasant and dangerous. There are missiles that even active electronic warfare systems do not have an effect on, moreover, it is precisely at the source of interference that guidance is being carried out. Another question: who said that these ultra-modern weapons will be handed over to Kyiv?
A couple more words about possible problems.
I have already noted above, now I will simply expand one thesis about the power supply and not only. A single-engine aircraft is small compared to a twin-engine aircraft. But you need to shove as much into it as into a twin-engine one, otherwise why make a fuss at all? Well, or almost as much in terms of mass as in terms of volume. There are things without which a combat aircraft simply is not.
So the main problem of all single-seat combat aircraft is the perfectly working fighter systems, which are utterly squeezed in the hull. So they should be set up by understanding and cool specialists.
That is, near each aircraft from Europe, a whole team of a technical and operational nature with very qualified specialists in routine maintenance, maintenance, tuning of all systems, rearmament, and minor repairs should fuss. Teach? For six months, as a pilot?
You know, bring in your F-16s. No offense, enough for five flights. Further - I will not guess, but somehow this case does not look at all further. But I have already spoken about engineers and technicians so many times that I am already tired of it. They are more important than the pilots, but apparently this is not understood in some places. As it happened with the "Leopards": tanks were thrown, but rembaz and ARVs were not. And then they began to make a fuss, to supply engineering equipment. And these are tanks, everything is much simpler there.
How many different stations will have to be driven along with the planes - I won’t even dare to say, because I’m simply not aware of the entire NATO nomenclature, but the fact that there is a lot of everything is clear.
And all this equipment will need to be taught to ground personnel.
In general, most likely, the F-16s are not just promised, they have already arrived at some bases where Ukrainians are being retrained. Well, that's what their partners do. So it was with missiles and with other types of weapons. So somewhere the Falcons are already standing and waiting.
Moreover, I am absolutely sure that these are aircraft of the Block 50/52 modification, the most common, because the more modern Block 70/72, sorry, will squeeze. They are moving too slowly in the F-35 series, which can replace the "70/72" for those who care about deliveries to the Ukrainians.
As a result, no matter what was delivered there, we won’t see air battles. It is fundamentally expensive, both materially and humanly. Well, the Armed Forces of Ukraine have very few decent pilots left to throw them on F-16s or Mirages against Su-35s.
I am sure that the Ukrainians will use the donated aircraft where the presence of both the Su-30/35 and S-300/400 is just minimized. Yes, the interception of cruise missiles and "Shaheds" over the cities, under the cover of air defense. Yes, it is possible to carry out missile and bomb strikes against troops, but only where this can be done with impunity. And intelligence, intelligence, intelligence. To be absolutely sure that nothing will fly into the nozzle and will not hit the cockpit from above with pins.
We will not see dashing air battles; for this, on the other side there are neither aircraft capable of fighting on a par with our fighters, nor pilots capable of using foreign equipment at maximum speed.
Yes, it is difficult to carry out offensive or counter-offensive actions without air support, in the style of the First World War. But even if NATO planes are, in principle, ready to engage in combat with Russian fighters, Ukrainian pilots are not suitable for this.
The issue of mercenaries is also acute, if there is money, but there will be those who want to try. However, the issue of attracting foreign specialists may not solve the problem either. Modern foreign missiles on the MiG-29 did not solve the issues of neutralizing Russian aviation and air defense systems, and Ukrainians have owned their aircraft for a long time. So those who want to die in the sky of Ukraine from among the same pilots of the NATO countries may simply not be.
Therefore, I consider the question of air battles and possible successes in them by aircraft of NATO countries as a whole closed.
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