I'm choking on the sky, but I'm wondering why I don't fly on the Falcon?
Indeed, the topic does not subside in any way, because it has a certain number of misunderstandings. A lot of the media pay their attention to it, however, referring to who to what: to secret sources, to sources that remained unnamed, to sources close to those who are in the know, and so on. That is - there is just a fierce gag that is not justified by anything.
Considering the issue, I got acquainted with so many opinions and conjectures that the mind began to go beyond the mind. It got to the point that I read in one Russian media how the United States does not want to hand over the planes, because the Ukrainians will break and ruin everything.
Considering that the Sokol costs from 45 to 55 million dollars, depending on the modification, and, say, the Leopard tank of the 2A6 modification “weighs” 6,8 million dollars, the fears seem to be justified.
But let's turn to stories. Moreover, recent.
What was said about Highmars?
What did they say about SAU?
Javelin?
What heated debates were going on around the Leopards?
"Patriot"?
And so on, the list is pretty decent. And in the end, what? All transferred.
So the question is not whether the F-16 will be given or not, but when and at whose expense. And there is no doubt that Kyiv will receive these planes.
And the most recent news this was confirmed: first, the United States graciously allowed the European coalition to train pilots, and then the issue of transferring the aircraft will be slowly resolved. While third countries, but ...
It was no longer a “source” who spoke about this, but quite a national security adviser to the American president, Jake Sullivan.
True, here a skunk was launched into the cage with the Falcons: Sullivan said that the F-16s were not needed at all for the upcoming counteroffensive of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, and therefore the allies would “strengthen its Air Force as part of a long-term commitment to the self-defense of Ukraine”, but ... The key word here is “ long-term".
It is understandable. Unlike the same tanks and self-propelled guns, not to mention the disposable Stingers and Javelins, the aircraft is a very complex design. We have already talked about this, that it takes three months to train a tank driver. Six months - and it will be a chic driver capable of leading a tank through hell. With a pilot, not only will this not work out, but he also needs a technician, a gunsmith, an electronics engineer, and so on according to the list of complex and really high-precision aircraft equipment.
So the transition of the F-16 from the “aircraft” state to the “litak” state is really a complex issue and not a one-day one. And money. Money must also be counted, because it will have to be spent long before the first Sokol takes to the skies of Ukraine.
And what will they have to spend on, and even in such quantities? In which - we do not specify yet, this is a great secret (quite logically), but what - you can understand.
The very leaked report of the American military department says that the minimum time that will have to be spent on retraining Ukrainian pilots on the F-16 is four months.
Very optimistic, so I agree with those who say that it's like the cards will fall and the brains will tune in. But what is said is said: at least four months, the maximum was not announced. That's why we dance.
The graphs are not taken from the ceiling, they are the result of work to study the capabilities of Ukrainian pilots. Yahoo News last year reported on a Basic Pilot Assessment (BPA) conducted by US Air Force experts on a pair of Ukrainian pilots this spring. It is difficult to say how the channel employees got a copy of the document, but some of it could be understood.
The Ukrainian pilots who took part in the BPA are not named, but are identified in the report as a Su-27 pilot with the rank of captain and major, mostly flying MiG-29s. The assessment was conducted by instructors from the 162nd Wing of the National Guard, which is based at the Air Force Base in Arizona. The tests were carried out not in the sky, but on the ground, using regular simulators from February 27 to March 10 this year.
Four unnamed flight instructors from the 162nd Wing—three majors and a lieutenant colonel—watched the simulator sessions and provided their feedback. To give an idea of the qualifications of these people, the least experienced of them was a Major with four years of experience in the FTU flight training unit (a flying school where pilots are “polished” for combat use after the ITT primary flight school) and 1 hours of flying F-500 personally, according to the report. The lieutenant colonel had the most experience: over six years with the FTU and 16 hours of F-2 flight time.
According to the report, BPA had the following three main goals:
- observation of Ukrainian pilots in order to establish a basic assessment of skills and determine the possibility of training on western 4th generation fighters;
- development of a specialized training program to determine the exact terms of training for the transition to the western fighter Aviation;
- assessment of the level of knowledge of the English language by Ukrainian pilots.
After an evaluation that consisted of nine separate simulator events lasting 11 and a half hours, the F-16 flight instructors concluded that the two Ukrainians had shown above-average skill progression. Pilots could perform mock attacks based on parameters passed in while flying the simulator. Also, the Ukrainians demonstrated the skills of flying at low altitudes and also at the “above average” level.
The report concludes that "Given the skill set demonstrated by the Ukrainian Air Force pilots and the requirement to develop a specialized training program focused only on the minimum required tasks, a period of approximately 4 months is a realistic training schedule." This training process is broken down into approximately eight weeks of transition training, two additional weeks of low-altitude flight training, and then approximately three weeks of air combat training.
Only three weeks for combat training in the air seems really not enough. Either this is a compliment to the training of Ukrainian pilots, or a real desire to save on the resource of aircraft.
According to the report, the air phase of the exercise will focus on intercepting one or two mock enemy aircraft within line of sight using one missile with radar seeker and one missile with infrared seeker. The types of missiles in question are not specified, but the AIM-120 AMRAAM and AIM-9 Sidewinder variants are the standard radar and infrared homing types carried by USAF F-16s.
The Ukrainian armed forces have actually already received the AIM-120, but for ground use as part of the NASAMS anti-aircraft missile system.
The same report indicated that the US military was seriously considering whether AMRAAM could be integrated into the weapons control systems of Soviet-designed Ukrainian fighter jets. However, it turned out that the implementation of such a possibility is associated with significant technical problems.
In general, a four-month training can give Ukrainian pilots the necessary level of knowledge to perform combat missions. That's what the summary of the report said.
They're cunning!
The Americans have such a thing as the Current Training Task List (TTL), on the basis of which the development of training programs for flight personnel is carried out. This list contains 250 tasks to study and demonstrate an understanding of their solutions. And only then the pilot receives the Mission Qualification Training (MQT) level. This is when a pilot is considered a pilot capable of carrying out a combat mission, the 162nd Wing report explains.
So, for Ukrainian pilots, the list of TTL tasks is planned to be reduced to about 160 tasks. It is clear that not beginners will be trained, but in reducing the list of tasks that a Ukrainian pilot may face while flying the Sokol, it can lead to unpredictable consequences in the future.
However, it is difficult to have something against such an alignment.
And what can be thrown out of the flight crew training program so that it is really possible to train 12-14 promised pilots per year?
1. Eliminate specific training in US instrument approach procedures. Logically, dragging airfield equipment to Ukraine and installing it there is not an easy task.
2. Basic Fighter Maneuvers (BFM), Air Combat Maneuvering (ACM). It looks doubtful. Yes, the Ukrainians have not just experience in such maneuvering, but combat experience, but on other aircraft.
3. Aerial Refueling (AAR). Here everything is clear. The Ukrainian Air Force does not have air tankers, and there is no point in such operations.
4. Close Air Support (CAS) and Basic Ground Attack (BSA). It’s also strange, however, not being an expert in American pilot training systems, I don’t presume to discuss this. They do not consider it necessary to teach - so there is a reason.
In general, it is not entirely clear what consequences the omission of other elements of training might lead to, and one would think that some of these elements would be useful for Ukrainian pilots. The question of what it would take for a minimally trained F-16 pilot to still be a combat pilot relevant in Ukraine still remains. However, some experts specify that over time, some of these additional modules can be added to the curriculum.
The more experienced Ukrainian fighter pilots already have their own skill sets that could be "translated" to fly the F-16. The instructors noted that this was demonstrated in simulation sessions, when Ukrainian pilots repeatedly returned to using Soviet standard flight procedures, rather than the American ones explained to them by American instructors. Well spelled out in memory of the Soviet aviation school, you can’t say anything. However, there is no indication in the BPA report that this caused any significant problems.
The BPA report highlights that the lack of English language skills is a problem, especially when it comes to the fact that Ukrainian pilots must be able to read instruments and displays quickly and clearly. The level of English proficiency of the Ukrainian pilots is unclear, as is how much of the assessment could have been done with the help of interpreters. That is, each student will have to be approached individually, which will affect the speed of learning.
The conclusions of BPA are very cautious. This is understandable, pilots are piece goods. An airplane is not a tank, everything is much more complicated with it. Therefore, it is impossible to take an assessment made on the basis of tests of two Ukrainian pilots as a general one.
Of course, the fact that the Ukrainians sat down at the simulators without prior training (instruction on where everything is not counted) and showed acceptable results really shows that these two pilots in particular have a very good school behind them.
What will happen next is very difficult to predict. It is clear that individual training will be required, plus it all depends on the level of English proficiency. But this is already a headache for the allies.
In any case, pilots will have to be trained. The pressure exerted on the United States by the same Great Britain will undoubtedly lead to success. And what, having “pushed” the Germans through the Leopards, the British took up the USA, and you can be calm: they will press the Americans first to get permission for training, then permission to transfer aircraft. More precisely, they have already squeezed out, the matter remains small.
The coolest thing is that the UK does NOT have its own F-16s!
And here there will be the same scheme as with the "Leopards" - there are no our own, but we will shake them out of the whole district. And there will be those who want to! As they changed the Soviet T-72s for the same Bradleys and Leopards, so they replace the F-16s with something more interesting like the F-35. With a surcharge.
NATO-style trade-in in action.
British Defense Secretary Ben Wallace:
“This summer, we will begin the initial phase of flights for groups of Ukrainian pilots so that they undergo basic training. This will adapt the program used by British pilots to provide Ukrainians with piloting skills that they can apply to different types of aircraft. This training goes hand in hand with the UK's efforts to work with other countries to provide F-16 fighter jets to Ukraine."
Applause. There are no F-16s, in the UK flight training centers they don’t teach flights on Sokols, but the UK will do everything so that Ukraine trains pilots and receives aircraft.
This is probably the best thing you can think of in terms of diplomacy and economics, and here the British can be proud of their specialists. “We plowed for the good of Ukraine,” but the Americans and Europeans will teach, who will supply the aircraft is also not clear yet, but obviously not the UK, which does not have them.
The United States, oddly enough, is not eager to send its F-16s to Ukraine. At least at the level of officials who made the relevant statements. The emphasis was on the supply of more essential anti-missile and air defense systems.
Pentagon Deputy Press Secretary Sabrina Singh:
“Our priority is to provide Ukraine with the air defense systems it needs, as well as other important positions, which include armored vehicles and artillery. That's what we've been focusing on in our packages, but... when it comes to the F-16, I just don't have anything new to announce today."
At the same time, permission has been granted to the countries that have operated the F-16. Can be transferred. But in general, if you look at how the level of supplies of military equipment to Ukraine grew with the beginning of the NMD, then the evolution is obvious. They also denied the Abrams and Patrits, but they didn’t go anywhere, they put them on.
But again, the question of price. Which includes, among other things, how these millions and billions will be spent. A vivid illustration is the recent example of the Patriots, whose volley was sent into the white light, like a penny, and then the fallen rockets were collected all over Kyiv.
American caution is understandable. But the pressure from the Ukrainians and the British will not decrease, but quite the contrary, it will only grow. But in any case, giving the most positive statements, in the most favorable scenario, there is a very big doubt that this year Ukraine will receive the coveted aircraft.
More precisely, the aircraft, perhaps, will receive it. But the training of pilots, even in a stream, is at least 6 months. Depending on the level of knowledge of the language. For example, yes, the Belgians have expressed a desire to teach. But if anything: Belgium has THREE official languages: German, French and Dutch/Dutch. And how about this?
And at the same time as the pilots, it will be necessary, as I said earlier, to train engineers and technicians, hydraulics, engine engineers, instrumentation specialists, gunsmiths, electronics engineers, and so on. And there hasn't been a word about it at all. A plane is not a tank, it needs care every day.
So the lyrics of Dmytro Gnatyuk's song, it very well illustrates the essence of what is happening:
I marvel at the sky, I guess that thought:
Why do not I sokol, Why do not I pour,
Why don't you give me a chicken, God? -
I would have left the earth, I would have zlіtav into the sky!
So it turns out that the Falcon could have taken off into the sky of Ukraine, and “would have visited the dark horns”, but ... The gods who decide this issue are not in a hurry to go anywhere yet. Because this is not an easy and expensive business - wings for the Falcon.
But to be honest: of course, sooner or later (it’s clear that it’s too late), but Ukraine will have F-16s. As well as everything that was given before. The question is, indeed, purely in time. And we will see how the Ukrainians will be able to implement all this in a year and a half.
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